Some minor Flames news and random thoughts to pass on during this insufferable gap between play-off rounds.
First, the Sun recently published a series of pieces centered around a Randy Sportak interview of Ken King. Dubbed "the state of the union", the series is actually stunning in it's delivery of, well...little more than obfuscation and platitudes. King is a brass-balls, iron-fisted business man behind closed doors, but is overtly diplomatic with fans and the media in public. Several interesting subjects are broached - including the direction of the team and the possibility of a new building, and King reveals essentially nothing that wasn't known previously. Anyways, if you want to experience the politicking yourself, enjoy:
State of the union.
King admitted the data goes into the "large hopper" and "it would have a place" but refused to comment on it, not even to take credit for the No. 15 ranking for fan relations.
"I can't respond to the good any more than I can to the bad," he said.
"It would be inappropriate for me to take a bow for the positive aspects of it -- I don't consider 15 to be very positive, by the way -- than it would be for me to pooh-pooh the negative."
Team Direction.
"I think it's parity. I think the difference is a very, very fine line. We want to, plan to and need to progress. You're not looking at a team that is managed or owned or operated by people who believe that a first-round exit in the playoffs is OK or making the playoffs is OK. That's not who we are."
Ticket Prices.
"What we have always attempted to do with our pricing is balance the market we're in, the demand for tickets we have, and a level of fairness."
A New Home.
"We believe the long-term future of the team and our fans requires we have a new building at some point," said King. "We would like to attempt to complete a building by 2014, open the doors of a new building. That's the natural expiry of our existing lease. As each day and each month marches on, that becomes an increasingly difficult target to try and hit. We have spent money, we have done research, we have spent a lot of time and effort."
Dollars and Sense
"In order for us to continue to spend at the levels we do, which are very near the cap, we have to be very near optimizing revenues in order to achieve them,"
"We don't have a big gap. We need full buildings, we need good advertising revenue, we need good television revenue, we need good merchandise revenue, we need good food and beverage revenue. We need the wind blowing hard at our back in a positive revenue form in order for us to finance and keep our commitment to a competitive team."
(Don't say I didn't warn you).
Secondly, during his recent interview on Fan960, Sutter admitted the Flames had pursued un-drafted wunderkind and new Dallas Star Fabian Brunnstrom. In the same exchange, Darryl admitted the organization also has it's eye on one Martin Thornberg of the SEL.
Thornberg is a 25 year-old LW who scored 20 goals and 37 points (in 51 GP) this season in the Swedish Elite League. Those numbers aren't overly impressive to me, but then again I don't know who he plays with/against and have never seen him live. So maybe there's something there. I wouldn't bet on him being a capable Huselius replacement, however, since the latter managed 14 goals and 49 points in just 34 games in the same league back in 03-04 (and around the same age as well). However, any player that can potentially increase the depth of the organizations laughably shallow LW should be welcomed with open arms.
Speaking of depth, the QC Flames lost AHL journeyman Tim Hambly to the the Chicago Blackhawks recently. Hambly wasn't really Calgary property, having played under an AHL-only contract last year, so I guess this isn't really very newsworthy, unless you're a big QC fan. Hambly scored 4 goals and managed 26 assists in what turned out to be a career year for the 25 year-old last season.
Finally, on the topic of "how nonsense becomes 'conventional wisdom'", I happened to catch a Pierre McGuire segment on local sports radio recently. During the back and forth, McGuire asserted that Chris Osgood was doing "an amazing job" in net for the Red Wings, because "it's very difficult to play behind a team like Detroit" because "they limit the opposition to so few shots". I shit you not. In McGuire's mind, having fewer shots - and fewer quality opportunities against - is a tough gig for a goaltender - "because they like to have more shots and feel part of the game".
Sigh.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Such and Such
Congrats to both the Penguins and Red Wings. Im looking forward to this final, which is more that can be said for the previous two rounds. To Pittsburgh fans: while you may seem to be on the precipice of a dynasty with all those great young players, make sure to enjoy this experience while it lasts. It could turn out to be rather fleeting - take it from a Flames fan.
To Detroit fans: I hate you spoiled, spoiled bastards.
An now, apropos of nothing: iceless skating. Seriously.
To Detroit fans: I hate you spoiled, spoiled bastards.
An now, apropos of nothing: iceless skating. Seriously.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Note my furrowed brows
Does anyone else have a sinking feeling that Todd Fedoruk is going to become a Flame in the near future?
Perhaps this horrible calamity could be prevented by my turning to the dark side?
Or maybe it's just me...
Perhaps this horrible calamity could be prevented by my turning to the dark side?
Or maybe it's just me...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Four million reasons to trade Adrian Aucoin
A little while ago, Frequent Commenter Ngthagg and I had a back and forth regarding Adrian Aucoin. Here's his comment, which is the jumping off point for this discussion:
I think Aucoin may have a bit more value than some people think. Look at his numbers:
10g/25p
+13
20:57/game
37PIM
I don't know if that's worth $4M, but it's worth more than bugger all. Those are the numbers of a reliable offensive dman. And it's hard to say if he'll take a step back next year, since this year was such a drastic improvement over his time in Chicago.
Quite sensible. Aucoin's counting numbers are certainly nothing to sneeze at and were actually some of the better ones on the Flames back-end. The more I've thought about it, though, the more Im convinced that Adrian will indeed take a step back next year.
Firstly, keep in mind Aucoin played against nobodies all year and spent over four minutes on the PP with Phaneuf/Iginla/Huselius/Langkow. Almost anyone playing beside Phaneuf sees an increase in their PP efficacy - just ask Andrew Ference. "Friendly surroundings" and all that. And speaking in general terms, I've found that players that excel only in the cuddliest of circumstances tend to fall back eventually (because circumstances can't always be cuddly). For evidence see: Tom Preissing.
Secondly, Aucoin's favorable results from this past season represent a bunch of near-career-bests, suggesting a regression back to the norm is in order next year. The 76 games he played was the most he's managed since 03-04, His 35 point total was the 2nd best of his career and the 8.3 shooting percentage was his highest since that 23 goal season in Vancouver all the way back in '98. His career averages for the various categories are:
GP - 59
goals - 7
points - 23
SH% - 5.5
Chances are, Aucoin falls back towards the mean in one, if not all, of these areas next year. Especially since he's a 34 year-old veteran of 13+ seasons.
Even considering the role of chance and easy minutes detailed above, like me, you may still be a little surprised by Aucoin's numbers, especially if you watched him lumber around all year. There were many times that Aucoin looked like a fairly terrible defender, particularly if he was caught on the ice with anyone of moderate skill. His +13 doesn't seem to jive with my qualitative perceptions of his abilities.
Which is why I wasn't surprised when I stumbled across Aucoin's name in this "horseshoes list" compiled by Jeff over at Sisu Hockey. What it shows is the players that seemed to benefit from complimentary difference in for/against team SH% while they were on the ice. As you can see, the Flames had a SH% of 10.6 versus a 6.4 SH% for the opponents while Aucoin was playing - a difference of 4.2%. I suppose it's possible he was driving these kinds of results, but, after watching him all year, I really don't think so. As Jeff notes:
I also removed the players who are obvious drivers of big % differences (Crosby, Malkin, Lidstrom, Getzlaf, Iginla etc). No point in including them - I'm looking for the guys who are due for a fall, guys you might want to avoid trading for.
Or, in the Flames case, avoid keeping on the roster when cap-space is a precious commodity. The more I look at Aucoin this off-season, the more I think trading him is the prudent move. All arrows point to a big step backwards next year; if Adrian's 4M cap-hit is poor value when all the coins land on heads, he's going to look like a hideous boat anchor when the numbers start averaging out (just ask Chicago). Deal him now when his stats still look good and use the cap-space on a top 6 forward.
I think Aucoin may have a bit more value than some people think. Look at his numbers:
10g/25p
+13
20:57/game
37PIM
I don't know if that's worth $4M, but it's worth more than bugger all. Those are the numbers of a reliable offensive dman. And it's hard to say if he'll take a step back next year, since this year was such a drastic improvement over his time in Chicago.
Quite sensible. Aucoin's counting numbers are certainly nothing to sneeze at and were actually some of the better ones on the Flames back-end. The more I've thought about it, though, the more Im convinced that Adrian will indeed take a step back next year.
Firstly, keep in mind Aucoin played against nobodies all year and spent over four minutes on the PP with Phaneuf/Iginla/Huselius/Langkow. Almost anyone playing beside Phaneuf sees an increase in their PP efficacy - just ask Andrew Ference. "Friendly surroundings" and all that. And speaking in general terms, I've found that players that excel only in the cuddliest of circumstances tend to fall back eventually (because circumstances can't always be cuddly). For evidence see: Tom Preissing.
Secondly, Aucoin's favorable results from this past season represent a bunch of near-career-bests, suggesting a regression back to the norm is in order next year. The 76 games he played was the most he's managed since 03-04, His 35 point total was the 2nd best of his career and the 8.3 shooting percentage was his highest since that 23 goal season in Vancouver all the way back in '98. His career averages for the various categories are:
GP - 59
goals - 7
points - 23
SH% - 5.5
Chances are, Aucoin falls back towards the mean in one, if not all, of these areas next year. Especially since he's a 34 year-old veteran of 13+ seasons.
Even considering the role of chance and easy minutes detailed above, like me, you may still be a little surprised by Aucoin's numbers, especially if you watched him lumber around all year. There were many times that Aucoin looked like a fairly terrible defender, particularly if he was caught on the ice with anyone of moderate skill. His +13 doesn't seem to jive with my qualitative perceptions of his abilities.
Which is why I wasn't surprised when I stumbled across Aucoin's name in this "horseshoes list" compiled by Jeff over at Sisu Hockey. What it shows is the players that seemed to benefit from complimentary difference in for/against team SH% while they were on the ice. As you can see, the Flames had a SH% of 10.6 versus a 6.4 SH% for the opponents while Aucoin was playing - a difference of 4.2%. I suppose it's possible he was driving these kinds of results, but, after watching him all year, I really don't think so. As Jeff notes:
I also removed the players who are obvious drivers of big % differences (Crosby, Malkin, Lidstrom, Getzlaf, Iginla etc). No point in including them - I'm looking for the guys who are due for a fall, guys you might want to avoid trading for.
Or, in the Flames case, avoid keeping on the roster when cap-space is a precious commodity. The more I look at Aucoin this off-season, the more I think trading him is the prudent move. All arrows point to a big step backwards next year; if Adrian's 4M cap-hit is poor value when all the coins land on heads, he's going to look like a hideous boat anchor when the numbers start averaging out (just ask Chicago). Deal him now when his stats still look good and use the cap-space on a top 6 forward.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Talking up the VDG
Rob Kerr recently posted a summary of a discussion with QC Flames head coach Ryan McGill recently on his blog. Of interest were McGill's thoughts on the potential "NHL ready" guys, particularly considering the big clubs pressing need for cheap replacement players next year.
David Van Der Gulik is a guy who quietly made huge stride this year, according to his coach David is a guy that doesn’t do one thing really well but does a bunch of things very well.
I've championed VDG around these parts previously, based mainly on stats and third-hand accounts (as I've never really been able to see him play). Last year, the 24 year-old RW led the team in terms of plus/minus, while putting up respectable, if unspectacular, offensive numbers (16-27-43).
Stats-wise VDG didn't seem to take a step forward this season, although one has to consider the team around him was considerably worse than the 06-07 version: no Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano, Dustin Boyd, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin or Curtis MceLhinney (for a portion of the season). Plus Daniel Ryder's thing. That's at least two top 2 defenders, 3 significant forwards and a number 1 goalie, gone without adequate replacement. It's hardly a wonder the team didn't make the play-offs.
McGill's comments made me take another look at VDG's numbers at the end of the year. He ended up 4th in terms of scoring with 42 points and tied for 3rd in goals with 19. He was also the only forward on the entire squad with a plus rating (+3) and one of only two players in the black by this measure (Palin, at +14, was the other). From what I can gather from shaky messageboard reports, VDG was the teams top penalty killer (also, team leader in SHG with 3) and frequently played against the tougher competition. If that's true, then the fact that he scored at a decent pace against a good level of competition, with only secondary PP time and away from the clubs other offensive threats (Stevenson and Kolanos) is encouraging. What that seems to suggest is, Gulik can drive a positive GD, even against tough competition and even though he doesn't score a lot himself. That's good.
The thing being, the kid's not exactly a kid anymore and the time is rapidly approaching for the Flames to fish or cut bait with VDG if he's to be anything more than AHL fodder. From the scraps of evidence I can find, David looks like the kind of player Nystrom was expected to be, but has thus far failed to (and likely never will) be. Hell, if Nystrom, Godard or Mark Smith can make the Flames, surely VDG can be afforded a shot this season.
Other guys mentioned in the article are: Matt Pelech and Adam Pardy ("close to NHL level") and team scoring leader Grant Stevenson. Conspicuously absent: Kris "I wish I was back in the BCHL" Chucko.
David Van Der Gulik is a guy who quietly made huge stride this year, according to his coach David is a guy that doesn’t do one thing really well but does a bunch of things very well.
I've championed VDG around these parts previously, based mainly on stats and third-hand accounts (as I've never really been able to see him play). Last year, the 24 year-old RW led the team in terms of plus/minus, while putting up respectable, if unspectacular, offensive numbers (16-27-43).
Stats-wise VDG didn't seem to take a step forward this season, although one has to consider the team around him was considerably worse than the 06-07 version: no Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano, Dustin Boyd, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin or Curtis MceLhinney (for a portion of the season). Plus Daniel Ryder's thing. That's at least two top 2 defenders, 3 significant forwards and a number 1 goalie, gone without adequate replacement. It's hardly a wonder the team didn't make the play-offs.
McGill's comments made me take another look at VDG's numbers at the end of the year. He ended up 4th in terms of scoring with 42 points and tied for 3rd in goals with 19. He was also the only forward on the entire squad with a plus rating (+3) and one of only two players in the black by this measure (Palin, at +14, was the other). From what I can gather from shaky messageboard reports, VDG was the teams top penalty killer (also, team leader in SHG with 3) and frequently played against the tougher competition. If that's true, then the fact that he scored at a decent pace against a good level of competition, with only secondary PP time and away from the clubs other offensive threats (Stevenson and Kolanos) is encouraging. What that seems to suggest is, Gulik can drive a positive GD, even against tough competition and even though he doesn't score a lot himself. That's good.
The thing being, the kid's not exactly a kid anymore and the time is rapidly approaching for the Flames to fish or cut bait with VDG if he's to be anything more than AHL fodder. From the scraps of evidence I can find, David looks like the kind of player Nystrom was expected to be, but has thus far failed to (and likely never will) be. Hell, if Nystrom, Godard or Mark Smith can make the Flames, surely VDG can be afforded a shot this season.
Other guys mentioned in the article are: Matt Pelech and Adam Pardy ("close to NHL level") and team scoring leader Grant Stevenson. Conspicuously absent: Kris "I wish I was back in the BCHL" Chucko.
Friday, May 09, 2008
Looking Ahead
With the 07-08 season in the rear-view mirror it's probably time to start investigating the Flames present and near future. As we've already established, Sutter has some significant challenges in store for him this summer, especially if the goal is to take a step forward rather than tread water (or fall back).
The Forwards
For the sake of this discussion, Im going to assume the rumored Langkow and Giordano contracts are true.
Firstly, here's what the clubs forwards depth chart currently looks like (cap hit in parentheses).
Tanguay (5.25)-Langkow (5?)-Iginla (7)
?-Lombardi (1.817)-?
Nilson (1)-Boyd (.543)-Moss (.550)
?-Primeau (1.4)-?
(Prust, Van Der Gulik ?)
Total: 22.56M
UFAs (projected salary/year):
Huselius (4.5)
Conroy (1)
Nolan (1.5)
Yelle (.700)
Mark Smith (.550)
Eric Godard (.550)
Eric Nystrom (.700)
Stevenson (.700)
We can guess almost immediately that Eric Godard and Eric Nystrom will be re-signed. I personally don't have much use for either of them, but the coach and management seemed to like both guys last year. I think we can also guess that Huselius and Smith will walk this summer, Juice because the grass really is greener elsewhere and Smith because he's pretty much useless.
That leaves Conroy, Nolan and Yelle. Some tough decisions. While Nolan and Conroy weren't very adept in the offensive zone last year, they both proved they can still contribute to some degree, even against tough competition. Re-signing one or both of them will depend largely on their salary demands and how much Sutter is willing to invest in players that aren't a 2nd line LWer (the teams most glaring weakness with the ouster of Huselius). An additional variable may be the Primeau contract: if Sutter can somehow rid the club of that burden, he may be able to get both Conroy and Nolan back for another year.
As for Yelle, I fear his time as a Flame has come to a close. He's no longer an elite PKer and his offensive game has spiraled into total non-existence. While I dont think he should be put out to pasture just yet, he looks like the most expendable of the three players mentioned to me.
Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
(free agent)-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik?)
New total: 24.91M
Potential UFA LW:
Naslund
Fedotenko
Gelinas
Stillman
Nagy
Shanahan
Malone
Hagman
Pandolfo
Ugh. Boy oh boy it's a thin crop. Guys like Hagman and Malone who had career seasons this year are going to be overpaid this summer. Naslund will probably be too expensive and is unlikely to sign here anyways. Gelinas and Shanahan are getting to old for top 6 ice-time. And Nagy is the cock-tease type who is too injured and too lacking in passion to deliver on the promise suggested by his talent level.
The top candidates from where I sit are Fedotenko, Stillman and Pandolfo. Of the three, only Stillman has what many would consider "top 6" type offense and will likely be the most expensive. He isn't much of checker, but can produce on the PP.
Fedotenko is a 15-20-35 guy who is speedy and can play against a decent level of competition without being overwhelmed. Flames fans "saw him good" during the 03-04 finals.
Jay Pandolfo is ideally a shut-down forward. He has the most modest offensive totals out of the three, but he also tends to play against the toughest competition. Pandolfo actually had a pretty decent ESP/60 rate last season over 54 games (1.99/60) relative to his teammates (and Stillman and Fedotenko, actually), which is encouraging considering who he was playing with and against every night. He was also tied for the best ES +/- rating (+9) amongst NJD forwards.
Last year, Stillman made 1.750M (cap-wise), Fedotenko made 2.90M (!) and Pandolfo made 0.836M. Feds is the youngest at 28 while Pandolfo and Stillman are 32 and 33 respectively.
Looking at the numbers now, I'd be really surprised if NJ allowed Pandolfo to walk. He's incredibly good value, even if he deson't put up great counting numbers. Assuming he's available though, that's the guy I'd like to see Sutter target. He'll be cheap, he can play against anybody and he was a plus player on a club that wasn't very good at scoring at ES last year. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to add much in the way of PP scoring.
Assuming a contract of about 1.5M, adding Pandolfo and a 700k 13th forward (Prust, Van Der Gulik, etc), the depth chart becomes
Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
Pandolfo-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik)
Total: approx 27.11M.
Strengths: Top 3 lines can all take on tough competition without being overwhelmed.
Weaknesses: Team is even more top-heavy, with an almost complete lack of legitimate offensive threats outside the #1 line. Depending on how Boyd and Nystrom progress, the 4th line looks like a loser again to me as well (boy I hope Im wrong about the Godard thing).
Defense
Here's where the rubber really hits the road. Lots of bad money on this part of the roster that absolutely must be purged in the off-season if Sutter wants the Flames to be competitive next year (and to subsequently keep his job as the team's GM).
Depth chart (cap-hit):
Regehr (4)-Sarich (3.6)
Phaneuf (6.5)-Aucoin (4)
Giordano(.80)-Eriksson (1.5)
Warrener (2.35)
Total: 22.75M
UFAs (projected salary/year):
Hale (.600)
Vandermeer (1.5)
The issues afflicting the back-end are glaring and obvious.
First of all, Warrener's contract has to go away through whatever means necessary (short of buying him out). Even when he's healthy (which is rare) his contributions fall well short of his cap hit. If he does nothing else this Summer, Sutter absolutely MUST get rid of Warrener. To put it into perspective, Daz could conceivably re-sign both Giordano and Vandermeer for about what Warrener's salary is worth.
Next up on the hit list is my favorite punching bag, Anders Eriksson. Bubba proved beyond a shadow of a doubt (at least to me) that he's little more than a fringe NHL player at this stage in his career. Although he could probably be a capable enough 6th/7th defenseman, like Warrener, his cap-hit is out of line with his role. Deal him for bag of sweaty jocks, waive him, send him to the farm...just get rid of him.
Im more ambivalent about Adrian Aucoin however. He was decent on the PP this season and wasn't too much of a liability at ES as long as he was sheltered. 4M is still poor value, but at least Aucoin can help the team win in some manner. His NTC and bigger salary also make it more difficult to deal or send him to the minors. My feeling is Aucoin will be sticking around unless Sutter can somehow deal him and get something worthwhile coming back.
Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-Vandermeer/replacement
Aucoin-Giordano
Hale or Pardy
Total: approx 21M
Strengths: Cheaper, a little more mobile, with at 3 least PP capable defensemen.
Weaknesses: Still a gap in the top 4 (Vandermeer is more a 5-6 guy), unless Gio has taken a couple leaps forward.
Altogether
Forwards -- 27.1M
Defensemen -- 21M
Goalies (Kipper @ 5.833M + Back-up @ .700M) -- 6.533M
-------------------
54.64M
It's a pretty tight squeeze, even granting the eliminations of Warrener, Eriksson and Primeau and cheaping out on the top 6 LW signing. If the cap falls short of the expected 56M ceiling, then dealing one of Aucoin or even Tanguay for cheaper pieces becomes a necessity (and yes, Tanguay has a NTC as well).
Whatever Sutter makes, he's going to earn it this summer. As you can see from my hypothetical scenario above, he's facing quite the boondoggle. Perhaps the best part about the impending budget crunch is Darryl will be forced to abandon some of his bad habits. There won't be any money or room for reclamation projects (Friesen), comfortable vets (Primeau) or "experienced" defensemen (Eriksson, Zyuzin). It's "adapt or die"for this management team this summer I think. Im really quite interested to see which it will be.
The Forwards
For the sake of this discussion, Im going to assume the rumored Langkow and Giordano contracts are true.
Firstly, here's what the clubs forwards depth chart currently looks like (cap hit in parentheses).
Tanguay (5.25)-Langkow (5?)-Iginla (7)
?-Lombardi (1.817)-?
Nilson (1)-Boyd (.543)-Moss (.550)
?-Primeau (1.4)-?
(Prust, Van Der Gulik ?)
Total: 22.56M
UFAs (projected salary/year):
Huselius (4.5)
Conroy (1)
Nolan (1.5)
Yelle (.700)
Mark Smith (.550)
Eric Godard (.550)
Eric Nystrom (.700)
Stevenson (.700)
We can guess almost immediately that Eric Godard and Eric Nystrom will be re-signed. I personally don't have much use for either of them, but the coach and management seemed to like both guys last year. I think we can also guess that Huselius and Smith will walk this summer, Juice because the grass really is greener elsewhere and Smith because he's pretty much useless.
That leaves Conroy, Nolan and Yelle. Some tough decisions. While Nolan and Conroy weren't very adept in the offensive zone last year, they both proved they can still contribute to some degree, even against tough competition. Re-signing one or both of them will depend largely on their salary demands and how much Sutter is willing to invest in players that aren't a 2nd line LWer (the teams most glaring weakness with the ouster of Huselius). An additional variable may be the Primeau contract: if Sutter can somehow rid the club of that burden, he may be able to get both Conroy and Nolan back for another year.
As for Yelle, I fear his time as a Flame has come to a close. He's no longer an elite PKer and his offensive game has spiraled into total non-existence. While I dont think he should be put out to pasture just yet, he looks like the most expendable of the three players mentioned to me.
Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
(free agent)-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik?)
New total: 24.91M
Potential UFA LW:
Naslund
Fedotenko
Gelinas
Stillman
Nagy
Shanahan
Malone
Hagman
Pandolfo
Ugh. Boy oh boy it's a thin crop. Guys like Hagman and Malone who had career seasons this year are going to be overpaid this summer. Naslund will probably be too expensive and is unlikely to sign here anyways. Gelinas and Shanahan are getting to old for top 6 ice-time. And Nagy is the cock-tease type who is too injured and too lacking in passion to deliver on the promise suggested by his talent level.
The top candidates from where I sit are Fedotenko, Stillman and Pandolfo. Of the three, only Stillman has what many would consider "top 6" type offense and will likely be the most expensive. He isn't much of checker, but can produce on the PP.
Fedotenko is a 15-20-35 guy who is speedy and can play against a decent level of competition without being overwhelmed. Flames fans "saw him good" during the 03-04 finals.
Jay Pandolfo is ideally a shut-down forward. He has the most modest offensive totals out of the three, but he also tends to play against the toughest competition. Pandolfo actually had a pretty decent ESP/60 rate last season over 54 games (1.99/60) relative to his teammates (and Stillman and Fedotenko, actually), which is encouraging considering who he was playing with and against every night. He was also tied for the best ES +/- rating (+9) amongst NJD forwards.
Last year, Stillman made 1.750M (cap-wise), Fedotenko made 2.90M (!) and Pandolfo made 0.836M. Feds is the youngest at 28 while Pandolfo and Stillman are 32 and 33 respectively.
Looking at the numbers now, I'd be really surprised if NJ allowed Pandolfo to walk. He's incredibly good value, even if he deson't put up great counting numbers. Assuming he's available though, that's the guy I'd like to see Sutter target. He'll be cheap, he can play against anybody and he was a plus player on a club that wasn't very good at scoring at ES last year. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to add much in the way of PP scoring.
Assuming a contract of about 1.5M, adding Pandolfo and a 700k 13th forward (Prust, Van Der Gulik, etc), the depth chart becomes
Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
Pandolfo-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik)
Total: approx 27.11M.
Strengths: Top 3 lines can all take on tough competition without being overwhelmed.
Weaknesses: Team is even more top-heavy, with an almost complete lack of legitimate offensive threats outside the #1 line. Depending on how Boyd and Nystrom progress, the 4th line looks like a loser again to me as well (boy I hope Im wrong about the Godard thing).
Defense
Here's where the rubber really hits the road. Lots of bad money on this part of the roster that absolutely must be purged in the off-season if Sutter wants the Flames to be competitive next year (and to subsequently keep his job as the team's GM).
Depth chart (cap-hit):
Regehr (4)-Sarich (3.6)
Phaneuf (6.5)-Aucoin (4)
Giordano(.80)-Eriksson (1.5)
Warrener (2.35)
Total: 22.75M
UFAs (projected salary/year):
Hale (.600)
Vandermeer (1.5)
The issues afflicting the back-end are glaring and obvious.
First of all, Warrener's contract has to go away through whatever means necessary (short of buying him out). Even when he's healthy (which is rare) his contributions fall well short of his cap hit. If he does nothing else this Summer, Sutter absolutely MUST get rid of Warrener. To put it into perspective, Daz could conceivably re-sign both Giordano and Vandermeer for about what Warrener's salary is worth.
Next up on the hit list is my favorite punching bag, Anders Eriksson. Bubba proved beyond a shadow of a doubt (at least to me) that he's little more than a fringe NHL player at this stage in his career. Although he could probably be a capable enough 6th/7th defenseman, like Warrener, his cap-hit is out of line with his role. Deal him for bag of sweaty jocks, waive him, send him to the farm...just get rid of him.
Im more ambivalent about Adrian Aucoin however. He was decent on the PP this season and wasn't too much of a liability at ES as long as he was sheltered. 4M is still poor value, but at least Aucoin can help the team win in some manner. His NTC and bigger salary also make it more difficult to deal or send him to the minors. My feeling is Aucoin will be sticking around unless Sutter can somehow deal him and get something worthwhile coming back.
Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-Vandermeer/replacement
Aucoin-Giordano
Hale or Pardy
Total: approx 21M
Strengths: Cheaper, a little more mobile, with at 3 least PP capable defensemen.
Weaknesses: Still a gap in the top 4 (Vandermeer is more a 5-6 guy), unless Gio has taken a couple leaps forward.
Altogether
Forwards -- 27.1M
Defensemen -- 21M
Goalies (Kipper @ 5.833M + Back-up @ .700M) -- 6.533M
-------------------
54.64M
It's a pretty tight squeeze, even granting the eliminations of Warrener, Eriksson and Primeau and cheaping out on the top 6 LW signing. If the cap falls short of the expected 56M ceiling, then dealing one of Aucoin or even Tanguay for cheaper pieces becomes a necessity (and yes, Tanguay has a NTC as well).
Whatever Sutter makes, he's going to earn it this summer. As you can see from my hypothetical scenario above, he's facing quite the boondoggle. Perhaps the best part about the impending budget crunch is Darryl will be forced to abandon some of his bad habits. There won't be any money or room for reclamation projects (Friesen), comfortable vets (Primeau) or "experienced" defensemen (Eriksson, Zyuzin). It's "adapt or die"for this management team this summer I think. Im really quite interested to see which it will be.
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