Lost amidst the other, far more immediately relevant deals this past deadline day was a fairly innocuous swap between the Calgary Flames and the Columbus Blue Jackets: Calgary moved Kevin Lalande for a 4th round draft pick. At the time, I was surprised the Flames managed to get anything as high as a 4th rounder for what was a at the time an ECHL goalie who had been previously drafted in the 5th round. Seemed like a steal, even when the return was so modest.
The Blue Jackets installed Lalande as their AHL starter (since their previous starter and back-up were up in the NHL at the time) and he promptly won 3 straight games and was named AHL player of the week. Since then, I've kept a closer eye on the former Flames property and am starting to come to the shakey conclusion that Calgary may have traded away their best goaltending prospect.
First, some background. Lalande spent 3 seasons in the OHL with the Bellville Bulls. His SV% over those three years was consistently good to excellent: .920, .916 and .919. He finished 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the OHL in terms of SV% in each of those years respectively. In 04/05, his rookie season, his .920 SV% was the best of any freshman puck stopper in the league. He was named to the all-star team in 05/06.
His first few games as a pro didn't go so well for Kevin and may be the reason he was relegated to a third stringer by the organization. In 7 games for Quad Cities, he won just twice and stopped just 88.8% of the pucks he saw. That was last year, most of which he spent in the ECHL with the Las Vegas Wranglers, where he put up far more respectable numbers over a longer period (.932 SV% in 27 games played). Since then, Lalande has managed sparkling percentages where ever he's played: ECHL (.925 SV%), Quad Cities (.929 SV%) and Syracuse (.927 SV%).
What's significant is, as far as I can tell, neither the QC Flames nor SYR Crunch were good teams this season. The former placed 5th in the West Division and had a GD of -4. The latter were 5th in the North Division and actually worse defensively, allowing 10 more goals against than the Flames and had a nominally worse GD (-12). So it's not like he was playing behind juggernauts that were limiting the opposition to perimeter shots and winning each game by 4.
In addition, Lalande outperformed all his peers this season. No other Flames 'tender posted an equal or better SV% than Lalande. Ditto Syracuse, aside from Calder shoe-in Steve Mason who played a mere 3 games in the minors before being called up to save the Blue Jackets season.
Now, to some degree, I'm reading tea leaves here: Lalande hasn't even seen 1000 shots at the AHL at this point in his career, so we're talking small sample, potential for misleading results, yadda yadda yadda. Still, looking at Lalande's results both past and present shows a lot of arrows pointing in the right direction. And while Im not big on the value of goalie prospects in the first place, I find it's generally a good rule to try to keep the best ones around. Of course, maybe he's just a really, really good Junior/ECHL/AHL goalie and little else. Something to keep an eye on, anyways.
Showing posts with label Flames prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Flames prospects. Show all posts
Monday, May 11, 2009
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Leland Irving: comparables
Projecting goalies is extremely difficult. Their development road is far more difficult than skaters and their performance stats are team dependent. And, unlike skaters, it's a lot harder to put their output in context of team effects - for example, a PPG skater on an offensively challenged team tells you something. Or a guy with a -2 rating on a club that's -30 at ES also tells you something. But, it's hard to say to what a degree a goalie's lackluster stats are his or his teams in isolation. Especially when it comes to lower leagues like the AHL and Junior where stuff like ES SV%, PK SV%, SQN% (shot quality neutral SV%) and quality of shots against aren't available.
Leland Iriving was the Flames first round pick in 2006. He had a decent Junior career, although he played in very friendly circumstances: his WHL squad (Everett Silvertips) was one of the best teams in the league in terms of deterring goals against.
Over at Jonathan's place, Irving was brought up and JW mentioned his stats so far this year look fairly decent. It occurred to me that I had no context in which to place Irving's rookie efforts, so I decided to look up some comparable from the big leagues to see where he placed.
Problem being, not a lot of NHL guys played in the AHL as a 20 year old. Some were in other leagues across the pond, some were still in college and some had already made the dance. Let's work with what we ahve and see where he lands anyways...
First, though, let's compare Irving to his teammates. That is, the other guys who have played goal for the QC Flames this year:
Leland Irving: 44GP, 2.26 GAA, 0.912 SV%
Matt Keetley: 32GP, 2.84 GAA, 0.893 SV%
Kevin Lalande: 6GP, 1.92 GAA, 0.929 SV%
Irving took over the #1 job from Keetley a couple months into the season and has been the farm club's starter since. Lalande's results are excellent, but sullied by a small sample size (although, he's putting up similar numbers for the Syracuse Crunch since he was dealt). Both Lalande and Keetley are older than Irving as well (by one and two years respectively). Curtis MceLhinney's rookie AHL SV% was also .912, although he was older at the time (having come via the college route).
Now, here's Irving's 20 year old AHL season as compared to some existing NHL 'tenders.
Some guys played more games than others in the above comparison. Ward, for example, played 50 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters in 04/05. Halak, in contrast, played just 13 games in 05/06 for Hamilton.
The obvious caveats aside, this comparison seems to speak somewhat favorably of Irving. He's not in the realm of Ward or Lehtonen, but he's ahead of guys like Budaj and Raycroft. That said, his results thus far don't suggest an elite ceiling to me. his .912 SV% is slightly above the mean (.910) of the guys mentioned.
Finally, here's Iriving results relative to his draft cohort (only those with AHL results included):
This look isn't as encouraging. The three guys drafted in the first round with Irving are having better years in terms of SV% (Helenius, Varlamov and Bernier). Four other guys picked later than Irving (Mason, Dekanich, Atkoff and Enroth) are also ahead of Leland by this metric. His SV% is also slightly below the mean found here (.914). Of course, this comparison excludes guys who are still in lower leagues (NCAA, Junior, etc.) so at least it can be assumed that Irving is ahead of those guys.
Obviously, there's lots and lots of development time left for Irving so there's still tons of data to be yielded. However, looking at this first round draft pick right now elicits a big "meh" from me. Nothing suggests to me - again, as of right now - that Irving is necessarily Kiprusoff's heir apparent as the Flames future starter. His results so far look "good", but hardly elite. I'll leave it up to you to decide if that was worth a first rounder or not.
Leland Iriving was the Flames first round pick in 2006. He had a decent Junior career, although he played in very friendly circumstances: his WHL squad (Everett Silvertips) was one of the best teams in the league in terms of deterring goals against.
Over at Jonathan's place, Irving was brought up and JW mentioned his stats so far this year look fairly decent. It occurred to me that I had no context in which to place Irving's rookie efforts, so I decided to look up some comparable from the big leagues to see where he placed.
Problem being, not a lot of NHL guys played in the AHL as a 20 year old. Some were in other leagues across the pond, some were still in college and some had already made the dance. Let's work with what we ahve and see where he lands anyways...
First, though, let's compare Irving to his teammates. That is, the other guys who have played goal for the QC Flames this year:
Leland Irving: 44GP, 2.26 GAA, 0.912 SV%
Matt Keetley: 32GP, 2.84 GAA, 0.893 SV%
Kevin Lalande: 6GP, 1.92 GAA, 0.929 SV%
Irving took over the #1 job from Keetley a couple months into the season and has been the farm club's starter since. Lalande's results are excellent, but sullied by a small sample size (although, he's putting up similar numbers for the Syracuse Crunch since he was dealt). Both Lalande and Keetley are older than Irving as well (by one and two years respectively). Curtis MceLhinney's rookie AHL SV% was also .912, although he was older at the time (having come via the college route).
Now, here's Irving's 20 year old AHL season as compared to some existing NHL 'tenders.
Some guys played more games than others in the above comparison. Ward, for example, played 50 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters in 04/05. Halak, in contrast, played just 13 games in 05/06 for Hamilton.
The obvious caveats aside, this comparison seems to speak somewhat favorably of Irving. He's not in the realm of Ward or Lehtonen, but he's ahead of guys like Budaj and Raycroft. That said, his results thus far don't suggest an elite ceiling to me. his .912 SV% is slightly above the mean (.910) of the guys mentioned.
Finally, here's Iriving results relative to his draft cohort (only those with AHL results included):
This look isn't as encouraging. The three guys drafted in the first round with Irving are having better years in terms of SV% (Helenius, Varlamov and Bernier). Four other guys picked later than Irving (Mason, Dekanich, Atkoff and Enroth) are also ahead of Leland by this metric. His SV% is also slightly below the mean found here (.914). Of course, this comparison excludes guys who are still in lower leagues (NCAA, Junior, etc.) so at least it can be assumed that Irving is ahead of those guys.
Obviously, there's lots and lots of development time left for Irving so there's still tons of data to be yielded. However, looking at this first round draft pick right now elicits a big "meh" from me. Nothing suggests to me - again, as of right now - that Irving is necessarily Kiprusoff's heir apparent as the Flames future starter. His results so far look "good", but hardly elite. I'll leave it up to you to decide if that was worth a first rounder or not.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Prospects update
As we wait for the real thing to get going I again, it seems like a good time to take stock of the future assets and how they're progressing.
AHL:
There is, unfortunately, not much to talk about on the farm. Like last year, the QC Flames are being led offensively by a marginal veteran in Jamie Lundmark. Greentree, Chucko and Germyn are the only other guys scoring above a .5 PPG pace and only three of the regular skaters are in the black in terms of plus/minus (Palin, Eriksson and VDG).
I think the one pleasant surprise surfacing in QC this year is Brett Palin. The 24 year old was the only farm player to get selected for the AHL all-star game, despite some pretty lackluster offensive totals. That suggests he's been doing some stellar work on the other side of the puck, which is further evidenced by his team leading +6 mark. The former Kelowna Rocket was also a relatively impressive +14 last season, for a similarly punchless club. Another Pardy-like depth guy in the making perhaps?
Also, it's notable that Chucko has apparently taken a big step forward this season, although I don't know how much can be attributed to a change in scenery (better linemates, more PP time, etc.) versus honest-to-goodness improvement. Still, he's already matched his previous seasons point totals in half the games played. Credit where credit is due.
At some point in the near future, I may take the time to give the farm club the Willis treatment, which is basically a way to suss out each player's quality of competition. It's incredibly labor intensive, however, so it may take a long dry spell or attractive bribes to convince to go forward with it. It be rally interesting to me to see if Lundmark et al. are scoring against the big boys or if someone like VDG is getting fed to the wolves for the scorer's benefit. It would also be instructive to see if Palin is indeed playing against tough competition.
Junior:
Im only going to look at the guys who intrigue me personally here.
- Greg Nemisz
By the numbers is having a whale of a season. 27 goals and 58 points in just 47 games so far, with a +39 (!) rating. He's currently on pace to best his previous point total by about 17. He's also 9th in OHL scoring.
A word of caution, however: Nemisz plays for the top ranked team in the CHL. The Windsor Spitfires have lost just 5 games in regulation so far, and have already clinched a play-off spot. They have a +99 GD and have won their last consecutive 13 games.
They're a juggernaut, and one would expect a sort of Bruins-like halo effect to settle over most of their players. In short, there may be some inflating going on here.
- TJ Brodie
Has cooled somewhat after his red hot start, but is still putting up some decent numbers with 7 goals and 35 points through 42 games. Brodie ranks 4th on his club in terms of scoring and easily has the highest PPG rate of any defender on the Spirit. Certainly an intriguing mid-round pick.
- Mitch Wahl
Another guy that came hard out of the gate, Wahl has setttled down into a PPG pace since. He has already bested his goal total from last season, but is on pace to fall short of his career high 73 points. The good news is, He's currently third on the Chiefs in scoring and also leads the club in terms of goals and +/-.
- Mikael Backlund
After his mediocre run in Sweden, Backlund's foray into North American Junior hockey has gone well so far with 2 goals and 6 points in 6 games played. Given he's already played amongst men in his homeland and here with the Flames, I'd really like to see a strong finish from Backlund this year: a better than 1.00 PPG rate would improve my faltering expectations of him as a future offensive contributor at the NHL level I think.
- John Negrin
Negrin was recently traded from the mediocre Kootenay Ice to the slightly less mediocre Swift Current Broncos. Since then, he's gone 1-5-6 in six games, so it looks like the new surroundings may be treating him well. His 6 goals are easily a career high and he's on pace to manage about 60 points by the end of the RS (again, a career best). He is currently tied for 10th in terms of overall scoring amongst defenders in the WHL, although his PPG pace of 0.84 actually places him inside the top 7 blueliners.
Some good stuff all around. There isn't much on the farm, but it looks like some of the Junior guys are coming along nicely (and I didn't even bother to look at Keith Aulie). There isn't much bubbling under right now, but the farm team should experience a decent injection of skill in a year or two.
AHL:
There is, unfortunately, not much to talk about on the farm. Like last year, the QC Flames are being led offensively by a marginal veteran in Jamie Lundmark. Greentree, Chucko and Germyn are the only other guys scoring above a .5 PPG pace and only three of the regular skaters are in the black in terms of plus/minus (Palin, Eriksson and VDG).
I think the one pleasant surprise surfacing in QC this year is Brett Palin. The 24 year old was the only farm player to get selected for the AHL all-star game, despite some pretty lackluster offensive totals. That suggests he's been doing some stellar work on the other side of the puck, which is further evidenced by his team leading +6 mark. The former Kelowna Rocket was also a relatively impressive +14 last season, for a similarly punchless club. Another Pardy-like depth guy in the making perhaps?
Also, it's notable that Chucko has apparently taken a big step forward this season, although I don't know how much can be attributed to a change in scenery (better linemates, more PP time, etc.) versus honest-to-goodness improvement. Still, he's already matched his previous seasons point totals in half the games played. Credit where credit is due.
At some point in the near future, I may take the time to give the farm club the Willis treatment, which is basically a way to suss out each player's quality of competition. It's incredibly labor intensive, however, so it may take a long dry spell or attractive bribes to convince to go forward with it. It be rally interesting to me to see if Lundmark et al. are scoring against the big boys or if someone like VDG is getting fed to the wolves for the scorer's benefit. It would also be instructive to see if Palin is indeed playing against tough competition.
Junior:
Im only going to look at the guys who intrigue me personally here.
- Greg Nemisz
By the numbers is having a whale of a season. 27 goals and 58 points in just 47 games so far, with a +39 (!) rating. He's currently on pace to best his previous point total by about 17. He's also 9th in OHL scoring.
A word of caution, however: Nemisz plays for the top ranked team in the CHL. The Windsor Spitfires have lost just 5 games in regulation so far, and have already clinched a play-off spot. They have a +99 GD and have won their last consecutive 13 games.
They're a juggernaut, and one would expect a sort of Bruins-like halo effect to settle over most of their players. In short, there may be some inflating going on here.
- TJ Brodie
Has cooled somewhat after his red hot start, but is still putting up some decent numbers with 7 goals and 35 points through 42 games. Brodie ranks 4th on his club in terms of scoring and easily has the highest PPG rate of any defender on the Spirit. Certainly an intriguing mid-round pick.
- Mitch Wahl
Another guy that came hard out of the gate, Wahl has setttled down into a PPG pace since. He has already bested his goal total from last season, but is on pace to fall short of his career high 73 points. The good news is, He's currently third on the Chiefs in scoring and also leads the club in terms of goals and +/-.
- Mikael Backlund
After his mediocre run in Sweden, Backlund's foray into North American Junior hockey has gone well so far with 2 goals and 6 points in 6 games played. Given he's already played amongst men in his homeland and here with the Flames, I'd really like to see a strong finish from Backlund this year: a better than 1.00 PPG rate would improve my faltering expectations of him as a future offensive contributor at the NHL level I think.
- John Negrin
Negrin was recently traded from the mediocre Kootenay Ice to the slightly less mediocre Swift Current Broncos. Since then, he's gone 1-5-6 in six games, so it looks like the new surroundings may be treating him well. His 6 goals are easily a career high and he's on pace to manage about 60 points by the end of the RS (again, a career best). He is currently tied for 10th in terms of overall scoring amongst defenders in the WHL, although his PPG pace of 0.84 actually places him inside the top 7 blueliners.
Some good stuff all around. There isn't much on the farm, but it looks like some of the Junior guys are coming along nicely (and I didn't even bother to look at Keith Aulie). There isn't much bubbling under right now, but the farm team should experience a decent injection of skill in a year or two.
Monday, January 05, 2009
World Juniors and Mikael Backlund
Canada and Sweden go at it tonight for the World Junior Championship. The game will feature two Flames draft picks in Keith Aulie (whom I haven't really noticed) and the contentious Mikael Backlund (who leads his team in scoring).
Prior to the tournament, there were rumblings that Backlund was in trouble of losing his place on Vasteras altogether due to inconsistent play. It was strongly hinted that he would have to play well in the World Juniors in order to be welcomed back to his native team.
Well, the kid has played well. He leads his Swedish Juniors in goals with 5, including two beauty markers during the semi-final game. By many accounts he's been one of the best players on the team. His performance to date makes one wonder just how he was being employed back in Sweden...
A new wrinkle has appeared in the Backlund controversy recently as well. Bob Mckenzie appaeared on Hf boards and posted this:
Backlund will be joining Kelowna after the WJC. It's my understanding it's been agreed to and will happen, although my experience with international transfers is that it's not truly done until you see the player in the lineup...that said, Backlund is expected to finish this season the Dub.
Firstly, I've heard that that is indeed Mckenzie and not someone posing as him, so the tip should be legit. Secondly, it'll be interesting to see what Backlund does in the WHL if/when he makes the move. I dont know the relative development value of the Swedish league vs. the CHL, but it's doubtful his progression could go any worse than it has for Vasteras this year.
Prior to the tournament, there were rumblings that Backlund was in trouble of losing his place on Vasteras altogether due to inconsistent play. It was strongly hinted that he would have to play well in the World Juniors in order to be welcomed back to his native team.
Well, the kid has played well. He leads his Swedish Juniors in goals with 5, including two beauty markers during the semi-final game. By many accounts he's been one of the best players on the team. His performance to date makes one wonder just how he was being employed back in Sweden...
A new wrinkle has appeared in the Backlund controversy recently as well. Bob Mckenzie appaeared on Hf boards and posted this:
Backlund will be joining Kelowna after the WJC. It's my understanding it's been agreed to and will happen, although my experience with international transfers is that it's not truly done until you see the player in the lineup...that said, Backlund is expected to finish this season the Dub.
Firstly, I've heard that that is indeed Mckenzie and not someone posing as him, so the tip should be legit. Secondly, it'll be interesting to see what Backlund does in the WHL if/when he makes the move. I dont know the relative development value of the Swedish league vs. the CHL, but it's doubtful his progression could go any worse than it has for Vasteras this year.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Futures trouble
One only needs to glance at the QC Flames record or scoring stats to realize the Flames have a complete lack of skilled prospects at forward. The team is currently led in scoring by fringe players like Lundmark, Greentree and Chucko - guys who would be in the NHL already if they had top 6 upside. Daniel Ryder, once one of the more promising centers in the system, was sent down to the ECHL recently (where he hasn't done a thing) and we're still years away from determining whether guys like Wahl or Nemisz are worth a damn or not.
Mikael Backlund was thought to be the best of the bunch. A stand-out at the world Juniors tournaments, Backlund was given a long look-see this summer in training camp, even though he was just 19 years old.
The kid fell flat on his face during the pre-season though. His game steadily deteriorated as he struggled to keep up at an NHL pace. By the end of the exhibition season, it was clear as day that he was nowhere near NHL ready (I was more impressed with Dustin Boyd's first training camp to tell you the truth).
More concerning, however, is the fact that Backlund is struggling in Sweden this season. A lot. As in...may be dropped from his team bad. That is a giant step backwards for a kid who was top 5 in European skaters during his draft and a leading scorer for Vasteras last year during the play-offs.
Backlund and the Flames still have options if he does get the boot. He can either play for the Kelowna Rockets in the WHL (they own his CHL rights) or they can plunk him down in the QC. Im not sure which would be a better choice for the kid, given the AHL is probably tougher than the league he's currently in, but...unless Backlund can do a full 180 - wherever he happens to land - this is bad news for this organization.
Mikael Backlund was thought to be the best of the bunch. A stand-out at the world Juniors tournaments, Backlund was given a long look-see this summer in training camp, even though he was just 19 years old.
The kid fell flat on his face during the pre-season though. His game steadily deteriorated as he struggled to keep up at an NHL pace. By the end of the exhibition season, it was clear as day that he was nowhere near NHL ready (I was more impressed with Dustin Boyd's first training camp to tell you the truth).
More concerning, however, is the fact that Backlund is struggling in Sweden this season. A lot. As in...may be dropped from his team bad. That is a giant step backwards for a kid who was top 5 in European skaters during his draft and a leading scorer for Vasteras last year during the play-offs.
Backlund and the Flames still have options if he does get the boot. He can either play for the Kelowna Rockets in the WHL (they own his CHL rights) or they can plunk him down in the QC. Im not sure which would be a better choice for the kid, given the AHL is probably tougher than the league he's currently in, but...unless Backlund can do a full 180 - wherever he happens to land - this is bad news for this organization.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Flames Prospect Update
With a chunk of the season behind us, it's probably a good time to look at how the baby Flames are progressing. Keep in mind, this is all straight numbers reporting as I haven't seen any of these guys play since the pre-season.
Here's the QC Flames scoring at-a-glance. Like last year's club, the farm team is again mediocre at best, led in scoring by fringe NHLers (Lundmark and Eriksson) and lacking any sort of high-end talent. Still, there are a few notable stats-lines so far.
Kris Chucko - My favorite prospect punching bag. He's off to his best start ever, offensively speaking. He's already managed 10 goals and 21 points, nine points shy of his entire output from last season.
Of course, I have no idea if this represents a real step forward or is a product of expanded ice-time. There's no ice-time or points-by-situation break-down for AHL skaters that I know of, so there's no way to calculate and compare scoring rates.
Still, if he keeps up this PPG pace, he'll finish the season at around 73 points. That would at least suggest some NHL upside. It'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this gain or not.
Ryan Wilson - Sutter spoke highly of the undrafted rookie d-man recently, saying he could probably be playing in the NHL right now. While I think that's probably more of a GM pumping a kids tires through the media, it's nice to see a gamble like Wilson paying off. He's the farm's top scoring blueliner behind Bubba and is apparently turning into something of a fan favorite.
Kyle Greentree - The big ex-Flyer prospect apparently "wasn't right" at the start of the season owing to that ugly head injury he suffered in the Flames prospect tournament this summer. He's gotten back on track recently and has managed the third best point total on the team. My bet is he surpasses Chucko in the near future.
Matt Pelech - Pelech is having a hell of a year so far. As in, one hell of a BAD year. The former first rounder was one of the final cuts from the pre-season, but hasn't been able to carry that back to QC. Both his stats line and first hand accounts say he's struggled mightily, which is probably a little concerning for the organization. Pelech was expected to challenge for a spot on the big club both this season and next, but he's apparently incapable of getting the job done at the AHL all of a sudden.
Also of note - Dan Ryder and John Armstrong have played well recently, although both started out poorly for different reasons (Armstrong - injury, Ryder - rust). Going forward I would expect an expanded role for the two and some better numbers as they acclimatize to the AHL.
Juniors
Mitch Wahl - Calgary's second rounder from this summer was on fire to start the season but has slowed somewhat recently. He has 15 goals (5 less than his 20 from last year) and 29 points through 26 games already. He was also chosen to represent to the US at the upcoming World Championships.
I liked what I saw out of Wahl during the prospect tournament. He was fast, shifty and aggressive and seemed to have good instincts. Hopefully he can continue moving in the right direction.
Greg Niemisz - Is in the top 20 in OHL scoring with 11 goals and 29 points in 26 games so far. That projects to a 76 point season, a decent jump up from his previous 67 point year.
Nemisz is also an impressive +23, which suggests he isn't just piling up points on some high powered power play (*cough*Schremp*cough*). To be fair, however, it looks like Greg plays on something of Juggernaut in the Windsor Spitfires. His 29 points are good for third on the team, well behind Taylor Hall (49 points) and Ryan Ellis (45 points - also a defenseman!!) - both of whom are 1/2 in the OHL scoring race and a year younger.
One of major pitfalls of drafting juniors is favorable surroundings, where a kid puts up good numbers simply because he has excellent teammates. We'll have to wait and see if that's true of Nemisz I guess.
TJ Brodie - Keeping with the OHL, TJ Brodie has probably been the most pleasant surprise out of all the Flames prospects so far. The mid-rounder has 5 goals and 25 points through just 20 games, placing him 5th in the league in terms of scoring by defensemen (despite playing 7 or 8 games less than everyone else due to a minor injury).
Brodie was another kid that really stood out to me during the rookie tournament. His speed and poise with the puck were note-worthy and it looks like he's taking a big next step this year: to put his output in perspective, the Rangers first round pick Michael Del Zotto (drafted specifically for his offensive ability) is currently 7th in the league with 23 points in 23 games. Good stuff.
John Negrin - Darryl Sutter's favorite draft choice started out slowly but has been gaining momentum recently. He's managed 3 goals and 19 points through 28 games so far, which is pretty much right in line with his output from last season.
I was expecting a step-forward from Negrin this year, so Im a little disappointed to see him treading water. Im unsure as to the quality of his team (although they seem middling by the numbers) which may have something to do with his relatively ordinary performance.
Negrin will be 20 this March and should be dominating a league with so many teenagers, especially if he has NHL aspirations. He might be doing just that even now, but it isn't showing up in his stats.
Mikael Backlund - As you can guess, info on Backlund is spotty. According to Elite Prospects, Backlund has just 4 goals and 7 points through 14 games, which is really shrug-worthy production from someone so highly touted. It's somewhat worrying to see Backlund struggle (by the numbers, at least) after his colossal face-plant during the pre-season. Some expected him to step up and take the place of the departed Patrik Berglund, who tore the place up as a 19 year old last season, but that hasn't happened. The only good news I guess is there is lots of time left for him to turn things around.
Here's the QC Flames scoring at-a-glance. Like last year's club, the farm team is again mediocre at best, led in scoring by fringe NHLers (Lundmark and Eriksson) and lacking any sort of high-end talent. Still, there are a few notable stats-lines so far.
Kris Chucko - My favorite prospect punching bag. He's off to his best start ever, offensively speaking. He's already managed 10 goals and 21 points, nine points shy of his entire output from last season.
Of course, I have no idea if this represents a real step forward or is a product of expanded ice-time. There's no ice-time or points-by-situation break-down for AHL skaters that I know of, so there's no way to calculate and compare scoring rates.
Still, if he keeps up this PPG pace, he'll finish the season at around 73 points. That would at least suggest some NHL upside. It'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this gain or not.
Ryan Wilson - Sutter spoke highly of the undrafted rookie d-man recently, saying he could probably be playing in the NHL right now. While I think that's probably more of a GM pumping a kids tires through the media, it's nice to see a gamble like Wilson paying off. He's the farm's top scoring blueliner behind Bubba and is apparently turning into something of a fan favorite.
Kyle Greentree - The big ex-Flyer prospect apparently "wasn't right" at the start of the season owing to that ugly head injury he suffered in the Flames prospect tournament this summer. He's gotten back on track recently and has managed the third best point total on the team. My bet is he surpasses Chucko in the near future.
Matt Pelech - Pelech is having a hell of a year so far. As in, one hell of a BAD year. The former first rounder was one of the final cuts from the pre-season, but hasn't been able to carry that back to QC. Both his stats line and first hand accounts say he's struggled mightily, which is probably a little concerning for the organization. Pelech was expected to challenge for a spot on the big club both this season and next, but he's apparently incapable of getting the job done at the AHL all of a sudden.
Also of note - Dan Ryder and John Armstrong have played well recently, although both started out poorly for different reasons (Armstrong - injury, Ryder - rust). Going forward I would expect an expanded role for the two and some better numbers as they acclimatize to the AHL.
Juniors
Mitch Wahl - Calgary's second rounder from this summer was on fire to start the season but has slowed somewhat recently. He has 15 goals (5 less than his 20 from last year) and 29 points through 26 games already. He was also chosen to represent to the US at the upcoming World Championships.
I liked what I saw out of Wahl during the prospect tournament. He was fast, shifty and aggressive and seemed to have good instincts. Hopefully he can continue moving in the right direction.
Greg Niemisz - Is in the top 20 in OHL scoring with 11 goals and 29 points in 26 games so far. That projects to a 76 point season, a decent jump up from his previous 67 point year.
Nemisz is also an impressive +23, which suggests he isn't just piling up points on some high powered power play (*cough*Schremp*cough*). To be fair, however, it looks like Greg plays on something of Juggernaut in the Windsor Spitfires. His 29 points are good for third on the team, well behind Taylor Hall (49 points) and Ryan Ellis (45 points - also a defenseman!!) - both of whom are 1/2 in the OHL scoring race and a year younger.
One of major pitfalls of drafting juniors is favorable surroundings, where a kid puts up good numbers simply because he has excellent teammates. We'll have to wait and see if that's true of Nemisz I guess.
TJ Brodie - Keeping with the OHL, TJ Brodie has probably been the most pleasant surprise out of all the Flames prospects so far. The mid-rounder has 5 goals and 25 points through just 20 games, placing him 5th in the league in terms of scoring by defensemen (despite playing 7 or 8 games less than everyone else due to a minor injury).
Brodie was another kid that really stood out to me during the rookie tournament. His speed and poise with the puck were note-worthy and it looks like he's taking a big next step this year: to put his output in perspective, the Rangers first round pick Michael Del Zotto (drafted specifically for his offensive ability) is currently 7th in the league with 23 points in 23 games. Good stuff.
John Negrin - Darryl Sutter's favorite draft choice started out slowly but has been gaining momentum recently. He's managed 3 goals and 19 points through 28 games so far, which is pretty much right in line with his output from last season.
I was expecting a step-forward from Negrin this year, so Im a little disappointed to see him treading water. Im unsure as to the quality of his team (although they seem middling by the numbers) which may have something to do with his relatively ordinary performance.
Negrin will be 20 this March and should be dominating a league with so many teenagers, especially if he has NHL aspirations. He might be doing just that even now, but it isn't showing up in his stats.
Mikael Backlund - As you can guess, info on Backlund is spotty. According to Elite Prospects, Backlund has just 4 goals and 7 points through 14 games, which is really shrug-worthy production from someone so highly touted. It's somewhat worrying to see Backlund struggle (by the numbers, at least) after his colossal face-plant during the pre-season. Some expected him to step up and take the place of the departed Patrik Berglund, who tore the place up as a 19 year old last season, but that hasn't happened. The only good news I guess is there is lots of time left for him to turn things around.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Flames kids @ Oilers kids
I caught most of the prospect game last night, although a good portion of the first period was wiped out by technical issues.
Here are my very general thoughts, in no specific order:
- Although he didn't get any points, Mikael Backlund looked several steps ahead of a majority of the field. His ability to find seams in the offensive zone, especially during the PP, was impressive.
- Mitch Wahl was surprisingly effective, particularly considering his age. The puck seemed to follow the kid around all night and he generate several good scoring chances.
- TJ Brodie was the second big surprise for me. The Flames late-rounder from the most recent draft, Brodie showed good speed and composure with the puck. He managed to skate the puck out of harms way more than once.
- A year in the AHL helped out Brett Sutter a bunch. He scored the lone goal of the night - a shorthanded top-corner blast one a two-on-one - and managed to stick his nose into the dirty areas a lot.
- Matt Pelech had some issues and wasn't as dominating I figured a "near-NHL ready" defender would be against prospects. I think I heard he had some equipment concerns (skate malfunction), so that could explain it.
- Matt Keeltey was outstanding and was probably the reason the Flames won.
- Per Jonsson struggled visibly.
- I didn't notice Aki Seitsonen at all.
- Daniel Ryder played with Ryley Grantham and got little special teams time. He didn't really stand out in any way.
- Ryan Wilson displayed why he went undrafted last night. The guy is alright with the puck on his stick but has very limited lateral mobility, which limits his effectiveness. For example: Colin McDonald embarrassed him by driving wide during a fairly conventional one-on-one play in the first period.
- The Oilers players that stood out to me were: Huddy, McDonald, Peckham and Eberle.
- Kyle Greentree seemed to be developing chemistry with Backlund before getting run from behind by Paukovich. The big winger was carted off on a stretcher. The good news it looks like it's just a neck strain.
Flames lines/combos:
Kyle Greentree - Mikael Backlund - Greg Nemisz
Brett Sutter - Mitch Wahl - Aki Seitsonen
Ryley Grantham - Dan Ryder - Adam Cracknell
Lance Bouma - John Armstrong - JD Watt
Keith Aulie - John Negrin
TJ Brodie - Matt Pelech
Ryan Wilson - Per Jonsson
(Gord Baldwin)
Find some Oiler-centric thoughts on the game here, here and here.
Here are my very general thoughts, in no specific order:
- Although he didn't get any points, Mikael Backlund looked several steps ahead of a majority of the field. His ability to find seams in the offensive zone, especially during the PP, was impressive.
- Mitch Wahl was surprisingly effective, particularly considering his age. The puck seemed to follow the kid around all night and he generate several good scoring chances.
- TJ Brodie was the second big surprise for me. The Flames late-rounder from the most recent draft, Brodie showed good speed and composure with the puck. He managed to skate the puck out of harms way more than once.
- A year in the AHL helped out Brett Sutter a bunch. He scored the lone goal of the night - a shorthanded top-corner blast one a two-on-one - and managed to stick his nose into the dirty areas a lot.
- Matt Pelech had some issues and wasn't as dominating I figured a "near-NHL ready" defender would be against prospects. I think I heard he had some equipment concerns (skate malfunction), so that could explain it.
- Matt Keeltey was outstanding and was probably the reason the Flames won.
- Per Jonsson struggled visibly.
- I didn't notice Aki Seitsonen at all.
- Daniel Ryder played with Ryley Grantham and got little special teams time. He didn't really stand out in any way.
- Ryan Wilson displayed why he went undrafted last night. The guy is alright with the puck on his stick but has very limited lateral mobility, which limits his effectiveness. For example: Colin McDonald embarrassed him by driving wide during a fairly conventional one-on-one play in the first period.
- The Oilers players that stood out to me were: Huddy, McDonald, Peckham and Eberle.
- Kyle Greentree seemed to be developing chemistry with Backlund before getting run from behind by Paukovich. The big winger was carted off on a stretcher. The good news it looks like it's just a neck strain.
Flames lines/combos:
Kyle Greentree - Mikael Backlund - Greg Nemisz
Brett Sutter - Mitch Wahl - Aki Seitsonen
Ryley Grantham - Dan Ryder - Adam Cracknell
Lance Bouma - John Armstrong - JD Watt
Keith Aulie - John Negrin
TJ Brodie - Matt Pelech
Ryan Wilson - Per Jonsson
(Gord Baldwin)
Find some Oiler-centric thoughts on the game here, here and here.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Filling in the blanks - Marvin, Fulton and Deilert
In my ongoing quest to take a closer look at the future assets (and fill the idle time August), I stumbled across some information on a few of the Flames more "obscure" prospects.
First, a couple of the NCAA guys, Aaron Marvin and Jordan Fulton. Jonathan Willis of coppernblue and Oilers Nation fame turned me onto "Inside College Hockey" website which has proved to be pretty decent data source, particularly qualitative stuff that can help put flesh on the bare bones of a stats line.
On Marvin:
He finished with three goals and 10 assists but his coach says the numbers are deceiving when he considers the impact Marvin had as a rookie. He was named the team’s Most Improved Player at season’s end.
Huskies head coach Bob Motzko on Marvin: “Aaron is a big horse who works his tail off, and he has a motor that just doesn’t quit. He’ll take on a bigger offensive role for us this season, but he took on a big role for us last season and grew into it. He was one of our best players in the playoffs."
That sounds encouraging.
On Fulton, via the UMD Bulldogs site:
Showed plenty of promise in a respectable college debut last winter ... contributed 10 points (which tied him with Drew Akins for top honors among freshmen) to the Bulldog scoring attack in 2006-07...
ended a prosperous four-year run at The Breck School (Minneapolis) in March 2006 ... landed a spot on the 2005-06 Associated Press All-State team after finishing third in points (83) and second in goals (45) among all Minnesota high school competitors ... amassed that impressive offensive harvest in a mere 28 games ... was also a finalist for the Minnesota Mr. Hockey Award for 2005-06
Not too shabby either.
College hockey players are tougher to track and their development tends to be "murkier". Rookies ("juniors") are usually 19 or 20, which is when the typical Canadian Junior player is ending his minor league career. NCAA is also much lower scoring relative to the CHL, with less games played every season. Finally, rookies are often bottom of the totem pole when they join a college team (similar to NHL teams) and typically have to grow into bigger roles as their collegiate careers progress. This is why both Marvin and Fulton, despite relatively nominal offensive contributions, apparently yielded some rather glowing reviews. Safe to say, we'll know a great deal more about these guys after their sophomore seasons.
And finally, eurohockey.net has numbers on Swedish defensemen Alexander Deilert, Calgary's 7th rounder from this summer. In 38 games for J20 Superelit, the 19 year-old managed 6 goals, 18 points and a +11. I dont know how that league compares to the multitude of others, but I do know other decent Swedish prospects have spent some time there recently.
First, a couple of the NCAA guys, Aaron Marvin and Jordan Fulton. Jonathan Willis of coppernblue and Oilers Nation fame turned me onto "Inside College Hockey" website which has proved to be pretty decent data source, particularly qualitative stuff that can help put flesh on the bare bones of a stats line.
On Marvin:
He finished with three goals and 10 assists but his coach says the numbers are deceiving when he considers the impact Marvin had as a rookie. He was named the team’s Most Improved Player at season’s end.
Huskies head coach Bob Motzko on Marvin: “Aaron is a big horse who works his tail off, and he has a motor that just doesn’t quit. He’ll take on a bigger offensive role for us this season, but he took on a big role for us last season and grew into it. He was one of our best players in the playoffs."
That sounds encouraging.
On Fulton, via the UMD Bulldogs site:
Showed plenty of promise in a respectable college debut last winter ... contributed 10 points (which tied him with Drew Akins for top honors among freshmen) to the Bulldog scoring attack in 2006-07...
ended a prosperous four-year run at The Breck School (Minneapolis) in March 2006 ... landed a spot on the 2005-06 Associated Press All-State team after finishing third in points (83) and second in goals (45) among all Minnesota high school competitors ... amassed that impressive offensive harvest in a mere 28 games ... was also a finalist for the Minnesota Mr. Hockey Award for 2005-06
Not too shabby either.
College hockey players are tougher to track and their development tends to be "murkier". Rookies ("juniors") are usually 19 or 20, which is when the typical Canadian Junior player is ending his minor league career. NCAA is also much lower scoring relative to the CHL, with less games played every season. Finally, rookies are often bottom of the totem pole when they join a college team (similar to NHL teams) and typically have to grow into bigger roles as their collegiate careers progress. This is why both Marvin and Fulton, despite relatively nominal offensive contributions, apparently yielded some rather glowing reviews. Safe to say, we'll know a great deal more about these guys after their sophomore seasons.
And finally, eurohockey.net has numbers on Swedish defensemen Alexander Deilert, Calgary's 7th rounder from this summer. In 38 games for J20 Superelit, the 19 year-old managed 6 goals, 18 points and a +11. I dont know how that league compares to the multitude of others, but I do know other decent Swedish prospects have spent some time there recently.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Eurohockey stats
The Flames don't have a lot of European players or prospects. In fact, Calgary might have the most jingoistic roster in the whole league.
Still, there were/are a couple of Flames connections playing overseas every now and then. I tried in vain to follow Mark Giordano's progress last season, for example.
Anyways, for those unaware, Eurohockey.net is a pretty decent stat/roster resource for the various European leagues/clubs that I stumbled across awhile ago. I was looking through it recently and thought I might share some of the relevant links.
1.) Mark Giordanos RSL results. Gio had a so-so regular season but managed to be Dynamo Moscow's 2nd leading scorer in the play-offs with 1 goal and 7 points in 9 games. Keep in mind, this is the 2nd best league on the globe behind the NHL and one that doesn't award 2nd assists.
2.) Mikael Backlunds HockeyAllsvenskan results. Like Gio, Backlund didn't do much during the RS but managed 6 goals and 9 points in 14 post-season games. It'll be interesting to see if he can carry that forward into this year (assuming he goes back).
3.) Per Jonssons DIV-1/Elitserien results. The mysterious and relatively unknown 20 year-old Swedish defenseman split time between DIV-1 and the Elite League last season. He scored 3 goals and 18 points 38 games for Skåre BK before being called-up (?I presume) to Färjestads BK, where he garnered just 1 assist in 16 contests. Still, for him to be considered good enough to play some games against men in one of the tougher leagues in the world is a good sign. I'll be interested to get a good look at Jonsson in the pre-season this September (that is, if he makes the trip over this time).
UPDATE -
I figured I should add Andrei Taratukhin's stats, just for curiosity's sake. He's still technically Flames property, but chances are he's never coming back after a breaking a contract to return home.
Last season in the RSL, Taratukhin scored 10 goals and 26 points, good for 5th on Salavat Yulayev Ufa in scoring. Looks like he was the club's 2nd line center behind RSL vet Aleksei Tereschenko. Ex-Hab Alexander Perezhogin led the club with 21 goals and 41 points in 50 games.*
*(Price, Higgins, Plekanec, Kostitsyn(s), Komisarek, Chipchura, Latendresse, O'Byrne...how good has Montreal's drafting been recently?? Maybe the Flames should have waited until after the Canadiens picked at #25 to trade Tanguay this summer).
Still, there were/are a couple of Flames connections playing overseas every now and then. I tried in vain to follow Mark Giordano's progress last season, for example.
Anyways, for those unaware, Eurohockey.net is a pretty decent stat/roster resource for the various European leagues/clubs that I stumbled across awhile ago. I was looking through it recently and thought I might share some of the relevant links.
1.) Mark Giordanos RSL results. Gio had a so-so regular season but managed to be Dynamo Moscow's 2nd leading scorer in the play-offs with 1 goal and 7 points in 9 games. Keep in mind, this is the 2nd best league on the globe behind the NHL and one that doesn't award 2nd assists.
2.) Mikael Backlunds HockeyAllsvenskan results. Like Gio, Backlund didn't do much during the RS but managed 6 goals and 9 points in 14 post-season games. It'll be interesting to see if he can carry that forward into this year (assuming he goes back).
3.) Per Jonssons DIV-1/Elitserien results. The mysterious and relatively unknown 20 year-old Swedish defenseman split time between DIV-1 and the Elite League last season. He scored 3 goals and 18 points 38 games for Skåre BK before being called-up (?I presume) to Färjestads BK, where he garnered just 1 assist in 16 contests. Still, for him to be considered good enough to play some games against men in one of the tougher leagues in the world is a good sign. I'll be interested to get a good look at Jonsson in the pre-season this September (that is, if he makes the trip over this time).
UPDATE -
I figured I should add Andrei Taratukhin's stats, just for curiosity's sake. He's still technically Flames property, but chances are he's never coming back after a breaking a contract to return home.
Last season in the RSL, Taratukhin scored 10 goals and 26 points, good for 5th on Salavat Yulayev Ufa in scoring. Looks like he was the club's 2nd line center behind RSL vet Aleksei Tereschenko. Ex-Hab Alexander Perezhogin led the club with 21 goals and 41 points in 50 games.*
*(Price, Higgins, Plekanec, Kostitsyn(s), Komisarek, Chipchura, Latendresse, O'Byrne...how good has Montreal's drafting been recently?? Maybe the Flames should have waited until after the Canadiens picked at #25 to trade Tanguay this summer).
Thursday, August 21, 2008
More prospect discussion
...Sort of. The Hockey News' Mark Seidel has posted some thoughts re: each NHL teams recent draft performance. It's mostly just a general overview and an associated letter grade:
C+, Calgary Flames – Greg Nemisz is a lot like Joe Colborne in that he has the potential to become a big-time player, but the clock is ticking and he hasn’t shown enough consistency yet.
That's about the grade I'd give the orgs drafting since Sutter took over, so seems right. At least the Oilers and Wild got slightly worse evaluations.
Seidel isn't just some schmo like myself posting assessments based on hazy 2nd hand reports and incomplete stats. According to his bio line at HN he "is the chief scout for North American Central Scouting and appears as a host on Leafs Lunch on AM 640 radio in Toronto", so he's likely basing his impressions on some first-hand information. That said, assessing prospects a few months after they're chosen is more art than science, no matter who you are.
hat-tip to PPP.
C+, Calgary Flames – Greg Nemisz is a lot like Joe Colborne in that he has the potential to become a big-time player, but the clock is ticking and he hasn’t shown enough consistency yet.
That's about the grade I'd give the orgs drafting since Sutter took over, so seems right. At least the Oilers and Wild got slightly worse evaluations.
Seidel isn't just some schmo like myself posting assessments based on hazy 2nd hand reports and incomplete stats. According to his bio line at HN he "is the chief scout for North American Central Scouting and appears as a host on Leafs Lunch on AM 640 radio in Toronto", so he's likely basing his impressions on some first-hand information. That said, assessing prospects a few months after they're chosen is more art than science, no matter who you are.
hat-tip to PPP.
On the periphery
I've looked at the big club from just about every angle I can think of so far this summer. Perhaps it's time I considered some of the future assets and fringe players that will be skating from the organization this season.
David Van Der Gulik -
A guy I've pimped in this space for awhile. He's managed just over a 0.5 PPG pace in the AHL in checking/PK role the last two years. Charting VDG's progression prior to his professional career is tough because he spent most of his final season at Boston U being injured. He moved from 20 points his first two years, to 18 goals and 31 points in season three before managing 11 goals and 22 points in just 25 games in 05-06. His PPG rate those 4 seasons moved from 0.5 to 0.88 so there's a hint of improvement, despite the injury woes.
As mentioned previously, Van Der Gulik led the Omaha Flames and all AHL rookies in plus/minus in 06-07. He dropped back down to earth last season by this measure, largely because the team as a whole was markedly worse (lost Moss, Boyd, Taratuhkin, Giordano, Regehr and Nystrom), although he was still amongst the clubs leaders.
One of the most frustrating things about following AHL prospects from afar is the total dearth of in-depth stats. Counting numbers are available, but it's basically impossible to know how many minutes a guy is playing per night, or against whom. My impression that VDG is a top-notch penalty killer and shut-down guy has been culled from fan reports, media quotes and sound-bites, so it's possible Im mistaken. Still, the former 7th rounder has consistently out-performed guys like Nystrom, Chucko, Maki, Cunning, Peters and Prust by the counting numbers since he broke into the league.
All that said, this is probably Gulik's last kick at the NHL cat. He's already 25 and is at risk to become one of those lifetime AHL players who's kept around to help break in the kids every year. A lot of things will have to go right for him to even get a sniff at the big league this year, though, given the Flames overly stuffed roster and preponderance of one-way contracts. Not to mention the fact that four of his peers have been promoted ahead of him the last couple of seasons (Boyd, Moss, Nystrom and Prust) even though a couple of them put up lesser results. That seems to signal he's a "low priority" prospect in the organizations eyes and he will have to knock some asses out of the seats to get any kind promotional consideration.
Adam Pardy -
After an excellent training camp last September in which he appeared to be head and shoulders above many of the franchises other defensive prospects, Pardy went on to become one of the farms top defensemen. He's been mentioned as being close to "NHL ready" by Ryan McGill and has shown a decent development arc during his pro career. He played 41 games in the ECHL in 05/06, before making the AHL full time the next season and garnering 8 points in 70 games. Last year, Pardy was forced up the depth chart with the deletions of Richie Regehr and Mark Giordano and he responded with 5 goals and 18 points in 65 games.
Pardy will likely be on the top pairing again this season with Matt Pelech, unless one of the free-floating vets on the big squad gets sent down (Eriksson/Warrener). Even then, it'll be good news if Pardy can take another step in the right direction.
Daniel Ryder -
The Flames prodigal son. I considered Ryder one of the organizations top prospects along with Boyd and Taratuhkin a few years ago and was fairly disappointed when he washed out after just 5 AHL games last year. For a team lacking legitimate offensive youngsters, Ryder's apparent defection was a significant blow to the club's depth chart.
After taking a year off to...do whatever he needed to do, Daniel has decided to return. He's lost a season of development and it remains to be seen how committed he is to hockey after his hiatus, but it's still good news for Flame fans.
Ryder had himself an outstanding Junior career. He scored a boatload of points, was voted one of the leagues best penalty killers and face-off men, won the "Wayne Gretzky 99 award" as a play-off MVP in 05-06 (where he scored 15 goals and 31 points in 19 games) and twice went to the Memorial cup. Safe to say, no Flames prospect in recent memory has had anywhere near the kind of impressive resume Ryder now boasts.
A lot of curious eyes will be watching the younger Ryder to see what kind of steps he can take this time around. He wont be pressing for a big league job this year, but a solid season may indicate he's back on track.
Kris Chucko -
I've never liked this guy as a prospect and he's done little to sway me. His stats beyond one good year in the BCHL are worse than mediocre and he's failed to make any kind of impact the last couple seasons on the farm. I've seen Chucko live a couple of times and have never been impressed with any part of his game - from the physical tools down to the mental aspects. He skates awkwardly, can't seem to stick handle and doesn't have a nose for the net. There's nothing about him that is notable or compelling.
This is a swing year for Chucko. His development has been flat in the AHL and unless he takes a sizable step forward, he'll likely be passed-by for good by other kids. Were I a betting man, I'd say he puts up another 15 goal, 30 or so point performance and sinks into the morass ever after.
Matt Pelech -
By all accounts, a player that developed by leaps and bounds during his rookie year and one who could press to be a NHLer sooner rather than later. Being a Regehr-esque defender, his performance isn't really captured by the stats, so I have to take this stuff on faith for now.
Pelech is a big guy at 6'4", 220 pounds and is rumored to be both relatively mobile and hard hitting. He's not going to score a lot of points, but that's secondary if he can develop into shut-down stalwart type. Likely tabbed by the organization as the top defensive prospect, there's a chance he could make the leap this year or next. It will be interesting to see how long he lasts this pre-season and whether he can continue to make gains on the farm.
Ryan Wilson -
A free agent signing by Sutter this summer, I'd never heard of Wilson before the deal was announced. I was pleasantly surprised to discover he was a big-time point getter in his Junior days, scoring 60+ points in each of his last 3 years (twice topping 70 points). Those are some serious numbers for a defenseman.
Of course, the kid was undrafted and obviously comes with some warts. Word is he is a very awkward skater and has some decision-making issues, especially in his own end:
The areas of Wilson’s game that most need work are skating and defense. He was caught scrambling in his own end far too often, and lacks the recovery speed to conceal his mistakes. A hard worker and on-ice leader, if Wilson could clean up his defensive zone coverage, and work on his skating stride he would be a very solid prospect.
Wilson is a no-risk acquisition. The Flames have zero real offensive prospects on the back-end, so the 21 year-old will probably be handed the keys to the QC power-play. At worst, his weaknesses overwhelm him and we never hear from him again. At best, the minor club has a PP quarterback who could potentially become a 3rd pairing, special teams kind of guy down the road. Good news for fans (and Wilson) is the Flames have been pretty good at identifying undrafted defensive talent since Sutter took the reigns (although they haven't been very good at developing it).
Matt Keeltey/Leland Irving -
The battle to become Kipper's heir apparent begins this October in Quad Cities.
Keetley put up decent stats during his WHL career. He won a memorial cup with the Medicine Hat Tigers his last year in the Dub, then managed some not-too-bad numbers in his rookie debut last year (10-8-1, 2.33 GAA 0.912 SV%).
Irving had the better Junior career stats-wise, but took a very notable step backwards his last season in the league. I'm not sure if this was due to internal or external factors. Even with that, Irving was in the top 10 in terms of WHL goaltenders, meaning he didn't fall off a ledge and land into the land of the mediocre.
With Krahn gone and McElhinney (probably) shuttled upwards, the way is clear for Keetley and Irving to duke it out mano-a-mano. I assume the two will be deployed as a duo unless one proves to be obviously better than the other. I'm not even going to try to predict who will come out the victor, although Irving has the better pedigree.
That's my look at the possibles. Excluded were Lundmark (AHL fodder), Greentree and Backlund (discussed elsewhere), Taratuhkin (gone, never coming back), the newly drafted who remain in Junior and the various indistinguishables that clutter every team's minor ranks. What I have here are the guys I think are approaching a transition phase of their young career or are within spitting distance of making the bigs. Feel free to add your own comments or impressions.
David Van Der Gulik -
A guy I've pimped in this space for awhile. He's managed just over a 0.5 PPG pace in the AHL in checking/PK role the last two years. Charting VDG's progression prior to his professional career is tough because he spent most of his final season at Boston U being injured. He moved from 20 points his first two years, to 18 goals and 31 points in season three before managing 11 goals and 22 points in just 25 games in 05-06. His PPG rate those 4 seasons moved from 0.5 to 0.88 so there's a hint of improvement, despite the injury woes.
As mentioned previously, Van Der Gulik led the Omaha Flames and all AHL rookies in plus/minus in 06-07. He dropped back down to earth last season by this measure, largely because the team as a whole was markedly worse (lost Moss, Boyd, Taratuhkin, Giordano, Regehr and Nystrom), although he was still amongst the clubs leaders.
One of the most frustrating things about following AHL prospects from afar is the total dearth of in-depth stats. Counting numbers are available, but it's basically impossible to know how many minutes a guy is playing per night, or against whom. My impression that VDG is a top-notch penalty killer and shut-down guy has been culled from fan reports, media quotes and sound-bites, so it's possible Im mistaken. Still, the former 7th rounder has consistently out-performed guys like Nystrom, Chucko, Maki, Cunning, Peters and Prust by the counting numbers since he broke into the league.
All that said, this is probably Gulik's last kick at the NHL cat. He's already 25 and is at risk to become one of those lifetime AHL players who's kept around to help break in the kids every year. A lot of things will have to go right for him to even get a sniff at the big league this year, though, given the Flames overly stuffed roster and preponderance of one-way contracts. Not to mention the fact that four of his peers have been promoted ahead of him the last couple of seasons (Boyd, Moss, Nystrom and Prust) even though a couple of them put up lesser results. That seems to signal he's a "low priority" prospect in the organizations eyes and he will have to knock some asses out of the seats to get any kind promotional consideration.
Adam Pardy -
After an excellent training camp last September in which he appeared to be head and shoulders above many of the franchises other defensive prospects, Pardy went on to become one of the farms top defensemen. He's been mentioned as being close to "NHL ready" by Ryan McGill and has shown a decent development arc during his pro career. He played 41 games in the ECHL in 05/06, before making the AHL full time the next season and garnering 8 points in 70 games. Last year, Pardy was forced up the depth chart with the deletions of Richie Regehr and Mark Giordano and he responded with 5 goals and 18 points in 65 games.
Pardy will likely be on the top pairing again this season with Matt Pelech, unless one of the free-floating vets on the big squad gets sent down (Eriksson/Warrener). Even then, it'll be good news if Pardy can take another step in the right direction.
Daniel Ryder -
The Flames prodigal son. I considered Ryder one of the organizations top prospects along with Boyd and Taratuhkin a few years ago and was fairly disappointed when he washed out after just 5 AHL games last year. For a team lacking legitimate offensive youngsters, Ryder's apparent defection was a significant blow to the club's depth chart.
After taking a year off to...do whatever he needed to do, Daniel has decided to return. He's lost a season of development and it remains to be seen how committed he is to hockey after his hiatus, but it's still good news for Flame fans.
Ryder had himself an outstanding Junior career. He scored a boatload of points, was voted one of the leagues best penalty killers and face-off men, won the "Wayne Gretzky 99 award" as a play-off MVP in 05-06 (where he scored 15 goals and 31 points in 19 games) and twice went to the Memorial cup. Safe to say, no Flames prospect in recent memory has had anywhere near the kind of impressive resume Ryder now boasts.
A lot of curious eyes will be watching the younger Ryder to see what kind of steps he can take this time around. He wont be pressing for a big league job this year, but a solid season may indicate he's back on track.
Kris Chucko -
I've never liked this guy as a prospect and he's done little to sway me. His stats beyond one good year in the BCHL are worse than mediocre and he's failed to make any kind of impact the last couple seasons on the farm. I've seen Chucko live a couple of times and have never been impressed with any part of his game - from the physical tools down to the mental aspects. He skates awkwardly, can't seem to stick handle and doesn't have a nose for the net. There's nothing about him that is notable or compelling.
This is a swing year for Chucko. His development has been flat in the AHL and unless he takes a sizable step forward, he'll likely be passed-by for good by other kids. Were I a betting man, I'd say he puts up another 15 goal, 30 or so point performance and sinks into the morass ever after.
Matt Pelech -
By all accounts, a player that developed by leaps and bounds during his rookie year and one who could press to be a NHLer sooner rather than later. Being a Regehr-esque defender, his performance isn't really captured by the stats, so I have to take this stuff on faith for now.
Pelech is a big guy at 6'4", 220 pounds and is rumored to be both relatively mobile and hard hitting. He's not going to score a lot of points, but that's secondary if he can develop into shut-down stalwart type. Likely tabbed by the organization as the top defensive prospect, there's a chance he could make the leap this year or next. It will be interesting to see how long he lasts this pre-season and whether he can continue to make gains on the farm.
Ryan Wilson -
A free agent signing by Sutter this summer, I'd never heard of Wilson before the deal was announced. I was pleasantly surprised to discover he was a big-time point getter in his Junior days, scoring 60+ points in each of his last 3 years (twice topping 70 points). Those are some serious numbers for a defenseman.
Of course, the kid was undrafted and obviously comes with some warts. Word is he is a very awkward skater and has some decision-making issues, especially in his own end:
The areas of Wilson’s game that most need work are skating and defense. He was caught scrambling in his own end far too often, and lacks the recovery speed to conceal his mistakes. A hard worker and on-ice leader, if Wilson could clean up his defensive zone coverage, and work on his skating stride he would be a very solid prospect.
Wilson is a no-risk acquisition. The Flames have zero real offensive prospects on the back-end, so the 21 year-old will probably be handed the keys to the QC power-play. At worst, his weaknesses overwhelm him and we never hear from him again. At best, the minor club has a PP quarterback who could potentially become a 3rd pairing, special teams kind of guy down the road. Good news for fans (and Wilson) is the Flames have been pretty good at identifying undrafted defensive talent since Sutter took the reigns (although they haven't been very good at developing it).
Matt Keeltey/Leland Irving -
The battle to become Kipper's heir apparent begins this October in Quad Cities.
Keetley put up decent stats during his WHL career. He won a memorial cup with the Medicine Hat Tigers his last year in the Dub, then managed some not-too-bad numbers in his rookie debut last year (10-8-1, 2.33 GAA 0.912 SV%).
Irving had the better Junior career stats-wise, but took a very notable step backwards his last season in the league. I'm not sure if this was due to internal or external factors. Even with that, Irving was in the top 10 in terms of WHL goaltenders, meaning he didn't fall off a ledge and land into the land of the mediocre.
With Krahn gone and McElhinney (probably) shuttled upwards, the way is clear for Keetley and Irving to duke it out mano-a-mano. I assume the two will be deployed as a duo unless one proves to be obviously better than the other. I'm not even going to try to predict who will come out the victor, although Irving has the better pedigree.
That's my look at the possibles. Excluded were Lundmark (AHL fodder), Greentree and Backlund (discussed elsewhere), Taratuhkin (gone, never coming back), the newly drafted who remain in Junior and the various indistinguishables that clutter every team's minor ranks. What I have here are the guys I think are approaching a transition phase of their young career or are within spitting distance of making the bigs. Feel free to add your own comments or impressions.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Talking up the VDG
Rob Kerr recently posted a summary of a discussion with QC Flames head coach Ryan McGill recently on his blog. Of interest were McGill's thoughts on the potential "NHL ready" guys, particularly considering the big clubs pressing need for cheap replacement players next year.
David Van Der Gulik is a guy who quietly made huge stride this year, according to his coach David is a guy that doesn’t do one thing really well but does a bunch of things very well.
I've championed VDG around these parts previously, based mainly on stats and third-hand accounts (as I've never really been able to see him play). Last year, the 24 year-old RW led the team in terms of plus/minus, while putting up respectable, if unspectacular, offensive numbers (16-27-43).
Stats-wise VDG didn't seem to take a step forward this season, although one has to consider the team around him was considerably worse than the 06-07 version: no Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano, Dustin Boyd, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin or Curtis MceLhinney (for a portion of the season). Plus Daniel Ryder's thing. That's at least two top 2 defenders, 3 significant forwards and a number 1 goalie, gone without adequate replacement. It's hardly a wonder the team didn't make the play-offs.
McGill's comments made me take another look at VDG's numbers at the end of the year. He ended up 4th in terms of scoring with 42 points and tied for 3rd in goals with 19. He was also the only forward on the entire squad with a plus rating (+3) and one of only two players in the black by this measure (Palin, at +14, was the other). From what I can gather from shaky messageboard reports, VDG was the teams top penalty killer (also, team leader in SHG with 3) and frequently played against the tougher competition. If that's true, then the fact that he scored at a decent pace against a good level of competition, with only secondary PP time and away from the clubs other offensive threats (Stevenson and Kolanos) is encouraging. What that seems to suggest is, Gulik can drive a positive GD, even against tough competition and even though he doesn't score a lot himself. That's good.
The thing being, the kid's not exactly a kid anymore and the time is rapidly approaching for the Flames to fish or cut bait with VDG if he's to be anything more than AHL fodder. From the scraps of evidence I can find, David looks like the kind of player Nystrom was expected to be, but has thus far failed to (and likely never will) be. Hell, if Nystrom, Godard or Mark Smith can make the Flames, surely VDG can be afforded a shot this season.
Other guys mentioned in the article are: Matt Pelech and Adam Pardy ("close to NHL level") and team scoring leader Grant Stevenson. Conspicuously absent: Kris "I wish I was back in the BCHL" Chucko.
David Van Der Gulik is a guy who quietly made huge stride this year, according to his coach David is a guy that doesn’t do one thing really well but does a bunch of things very well.
I've championed VDG around these parts previously, based mainly on stats and third-hand accounts (as I've never really been able to see him play). Last year, the 24 year-old RW led the team in terms of plus/minus, while putting up respectable, if unspectacular, offensive numbers (16-27-43).
Stats-wise VDG didn't seem to take a step forward this season, although one has to consider the team around him was considerably worse than the 06-07 version: no Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano, Dustin Boyd, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin or Curtis MceLhinney (for a portion of the season). Plus Daniel Ryder's thing. That's at least two top 2 defenders, 3 significant forwards and a number 1 goalie, gone without adequate replacement. It's hardly a wonder the team didn't make the play-offs.
McGill's comments made me take another look at VDG's numbers at the end of the year. He ended up 4th in terms of scoring with 42 points and tied for 3rd in goals with 19. He was also the only forward on the entire squad with a plus rating (+3) and one of only two players in the black by this measure (Palin, at +14, was the other). From what I can gather from shaky messageboard reports, VDG was the teams top penalty killer (also, team leader in SHG with 3) and frequently played against the tougher competition. If that's true, then the fact that he scored at a decent pace against a good level of competition, with only secondary PP time and away from the clubs other offensive threats (Stevenson and Kolanos) is encouraging. What that seems to suggest is, Gulik can drive a positive GD, even against tough competition and even though he doesn't score a lot himself. That's good.
The thing being, the kid's not exactly a kid anymore and the time is rapidly approaching for the Flames to fish or cut bait with VDG if he's to be anything more than AHL fodder. From the scraps of evidence I can find, David looks like the kind of player Nystrom was expected to be, but has thus far failed to (and likely never will) be. Hell, if Nystrom, Godard or Mark Smith can make the Flames, surely VDG can be afforded a shot this season.
Other guys mentioned in the article are: Matt Pelech and Adam Pardy ("close to NHL level") and team scoring leader Grant Stevenson. Conspicuously absent: Kris "I wish I was back in the BCHL" Chucko.
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