Monday, June 30, 2008

Flames and Free Agency

Despite some big holes on the roster (2 top 6 forwards, a top 4 defenseman), Im actually hoping the Flames DONT make a splash in the shallow UFA pool this summer. For several reasons:

- With such a thin crop, the chances of getting a difference maker are slim-to-none. Outside of Hossa and Campbell (and even Campbell is stretching it), there aren't a lot of players that are going to have a deep impact on their new team going forward. In addition, the lack of quality will result in high demand/overvaluation/high price-tags for guys that probably won't be worth it in the long-run (see: Ryan Malone).

- The Flames are positioned to jettison some salary next summer (specifically, Adrian Aucoin's 4M) and may be able to take run at a more worthwhile UFA field then. A big contract to an average player this summer would make that less likely.

- While the ultimate goal is to win the Stanley Cup every year, many teams have to settle for more attainable objectives. Chicago and Phoenix, for instance, will probably be shooting for "just make the play-offs" this season.

Similarly, this should be a year of modest goals for the Calgary Flames. Chances are they won't be an elite team in 08/09 and should be looking at a "build/assess/maintain" strategy. Promote some prospects to the team and let some of the younger guys have a shot as difference makers (Boyd/Lombardi in the top 6, Phaneuf paired with Regehr), for example.

As such, Im hoping for one or two under-the-radar signings of cheaper, support-type players. Guys that can help the kids keep their heads above water but who won't be looking for big-dollar, long-term contracts. Targets should include established players who had bad or near career-worst seasons last year. Those kinds of players typically dont sign for big dollars and almost never sign for too long (since they'd like the chance to earn a larger number in the near future).

Some possibilities:

Michael Ryder - depending on how much interest he garners, Ryder coule be useful to the Flames. He's better than he showed last year and should be in-line to bounce-back, especially if he gets some decent PP time. He isn't that good at ES, but can be an asset if used properly.

Jason Williams - Everyone seems to have forgotten about Williams, even though he's just 27 and was on nearly a PPG pace last season before bowing out due to injury. He can play both center and wing and can quaterback a PP. His major weakness is he's fairly injury prone.

Miro Satan - Might become expensive if teams looking for offense get desperate this summer, though he might also slide under the radar. Satan had his worst season in the NHL last year (16-25-41), largely due to his worst ever shooting percentage (9.4) and lackluster teammates. He's one season removed from scoring 27 goals and is a 4 time 30+ goal scorer. Satan is also only 33, although it seems like he's been around forever. He might also be the best forward that no one is talking about.

Ruslan Fedotenko - Another NY Islander coming off a so-so season (hmmm...I see a pttaern here) Fedotenko isn't going to bring that much offense, but is fairly adept at taking on quality competition and keeping his head above water. He's fast and tenacious and may be a good linemate for Matthew Lombardi.

- Mark Eaton - although the Flames may be pretty much set on the blueline, Eaton could be a cheap but capable plug for that top 4 hole (Regehr, Phaneuf, Sarich -- Aucoin, Giordano). He was badly injured last year, but had been taking on tough competition up until that point (and doing pretty well at it - 1.94 GA/60). Eaton is like Hale in that he won't bring any offense to the table. Unlike Hale, though, he will be able to kill penalties and take on more than the other team's 3rd-liners. Assuming he's fully healed, Eaton could be useful and available for chump-change thanks to his blah counting numbers.

All these guys have warts, but such is the nature of bargain-hunting. I think all of them are worth a shot given the right kind of contract, however.

Feel free to suggest your own potential future Flames in the comments.