Forwards and shot prevention

Pursuant to my earlier post, here's the Flames forwards from last year (minus Jokinen) and their shot against rates at ES:



I've included each guy's QUAL COMP from behindthenet, just to add a layer of context.

Im still trying to decide if this number is telling me anything useful or not. That said, the results seem to be sensible, given what I know and observed about Calgary last year and in light of the quality of opposition each player faced. Boyd and Bertuzzi at the bad end of the spectrum makes sense, as does Moss and Glencross leading the way. Nystrom's number also indicates that the "defensive specialist" label applied to him as a prospect might actually be accurate.

Again, numbers via timeonice.com (shots) and NHL.com (ice time).

Defensemen and shot Prevention

Capturing a defenseman's contribution to defense is tough to do quantitatively, given what we know about individual players effects on SV% (it's relatively negligible), which means relying on goals against is out. Also, does a stalwart defender cause more opposition shots to get blocked? Go wide? Or, in fact, do good defensemen prevent shots from happening at all by anticipating plays, intercepting passes and rubbing out guys along the boards (etc)?

It's this latter point I chose to explore recently. Having a lot of shots blocked or go wide while you're on the ice can also be a sign of weakness - for example, the defender that gives the puck away at his own blueline would get credit under such an assumption if the shot during the resultant break-away happened to miss the net.

It strikes me, therefore, that a measure of total shots against/60 will give us an idea of the relative strengths or weaknesses of a given player versus his teammates and, perhaps, the rest of the league (the lower the better).

Here's what I found for Flames defenders last year. All numbers are ES, of course:

click to enlarge

Keep in mind these numbers are absent context (quality of competition, quality of linemates, starting position). That said, this initial look passes the sniff test I think. The ranking roughly accords with who were the best to worst defenders on the club last year (in my estimation at least). I think if we were to map something like this on top of contextual factors, the rate becomes more meaningful. For example, Reggie's number is middling on the team, but given the fact that he faced the toughest opponents and started in his own end the most, his number becomes more impressive.

I haven't carried out this exercise for any other team, so maybe this is all coincidental and Im not really measuring anything here.

What so you folks? Useful? Not useful? Should it be applied to forwards as well? I'd like to see how some of the other clubs turn out...

PS - ES shot totals found via timeonice.com.

Fantasy Draft

I'm taking part in a Fantasy Draft over at Cycle Like the Sedins. I'll be drafting for the Flames (naturally) and was gifted with the first overall selection for the first time in my hockey pool career.

There's quite a bit of pressure associated with first overall. On one hand, it's hard to go wrong...on the other, there's a lot of great choices available. A number of choices ran through my head, including:

1.) Pavel Datsyuk. We're operating under a cap for the draft, so the fact that Datsyuk is one of the best players in the league but only costs around 6M a year was attractive.

2.) Crosby and Malkin. Both young, both elite, both centers.

3.) Joe Thornton. Similar to Datsyuk in that he's consistently top tier but is relatively cheap.

After all that, I settled on - who else - Alexander Ovechkin. He's the most expensive player in the league but he's just so damn good. He outshoots and outscores the competition and is deadly on the PP. I'll obviously have to find bargains later in the draft in order to compensate for his huge cap hit, but I dont think that'll be a problem.

I'll update Other picks and the final roster (as well as my competition, which should be fierce) as we move along.

Zubov to Columbus makes all sorts of sense

It's a poorly guarded secret around here that I've come to adopt the Columbus Blue Jackets as my "second team". I like a lot of their players (Nash, Huselius, Vermette, Voracek), I like their underdog status and I think Scott Howson has quietly been one of the better GM's in the league since he took the reigns from that bumbler MacLean. As such, I may add a few thoughts on them from time to time around here.

Anyways, it strikes me this summer that the BJ's should be shamelessly courting Sergei Zubov. There's obviously a lot of big question marks surrounding the former superstar: his age (39) and injury history (extensive) being the primary ones...obviously there's a reason the Stars aren't bothering to renew his contract.

On the other hand, the Blue Jackets have an urgent need for an offensively capable blueliner. Their PP was abysmal last season and though some of that was undoubtedly bad luck, a lot of it had to do with a back-end that featured Kris Russel, Rusty Klesla and not much else in terms of PP quarterbacks. Zubov - at least, the player Zubov used to be - obviously fits the bill having scored 50+ points 8 times in career. Aside from his extensive list of injuries, which I admit is non-trivial, there is little evidence that Zubov is on a steep decline: in 07/08, he scored 35 points in 46 games at 36 years old.

The various risks associated with Zubov means the Jackets can probably sign him to a low base salary buttressed by performance incentives. The risk of him retiring and the club eating the cap hit is there, but avenues exist to at least minimize the risk by lowering the cap dollars.

In addition, the problem with offensive defensemen is they are relatively rare and almost universally expensive. The UFA market is basically bereft of blueline scoring threats at this point (outside of perhaps Dennis Seidenberg, although his career high of 30 points is hardly impressive), and trades for such guys are difficult outside of salary dumps (JM Liles anyone?).

Zubov won't cost anything to acquire, he should be relatively cheap to sign and he has a positive prior association with Ken Hitchcock. Heck, Im surprised this hasn't happened already.

On Dale Tallon

His firing was considered an inevitability back when Bowman was hired, but it sounds like the Hawks have legitimate beefs with his management - meaning the pink slip wasn't simply a formality.

The RFA situation was a very obvious, very public F-up. The team is lucky he managed to sign the guys in question.

Then there's the Martin Havlat stuff. If you don't have Twitter or aren't following Havlat, here's some of his most recent "tweets":

Lot's of people are telling me to stay quiet but shouldn't the fans know the truth? It's your loyalty, season ticket money and emotions here.

I guess everyone saw what happened to Dale....yes, the story is starting to come out but it's just the tip of the iceberg.

Excited to be in Minny where I was welcomed and appreciated by management. The real story about what happened in Chicago to come out.

Yikes. Some serious bad blood there, despite the fact Tallon signed Havlat to a big, long term deal the first time. It's going to be fascinating when Martin spills the beans because NHL players are usually so tight-lipped.

EDIT - Looks like I've misread the situation. According to Mirtle and some of Havlat's more recent tweets, Tallon apparently wasn't at all the target of his discontent.

Flames sign McGrattan, perpetuate fraud.

Enforcers are the great placebo of the NHL. They persist because everyone thinks they do something positive (intimidate other teams, "protect" star players) even though there isn't a shred of evidence that they actually accomplish anything.

The goon in the modern NHL is a castrated beast. He bleeds goals against and his every move on the ice is tracked by nervous eyes and quick whistles. Fines and suspensions are the primary fruit of his labor. He is rendered impotent by two simple letters: "no". Pests laugh in the goons face. All that's left is the occasional, ritualistic dance with another anachronistic brute before the hoots and hollers of the crowd. It's exciting, it's gladiatorial, but...I doubt it helps win hockey games.

EDIT - Just stumbled upon this expansive essay on the subject by E over at Theory of Ice. Similar sentiments are expressed more thoroughly:

The power of a fight to resolve violent tension in a hockey game is, in essence, the ultimate placebo effect. It works not so much because of anything it does in itself, but because of what the concerned parties believe it does. As such, it’s a highly imprecise conflict-resolution technique. While there are many incidents one could point to where two fighters thwacking at each other after a dubious incident provided satisfactory resolution to both teams, one can also point to at least a few very high profile cases where a fight not only failed to resolve tension, but perhaps escalated it. It may indeed be a safety valve of sorts, but it’s a defective one that can fail at any moment. However, whether or not fighting serves the function people claim for it is somewhat secondary, because what matters for professional hockey-fighters is that placebo effect- the belief that it can control the inherent danger, violence, and unpredictability of the game. Surveys occasionally show that players generally like having a fighter on their team- not, perhaps, because he actually makes them any safer, but because he makes them feel somehow safer.

Defense, Goalies and Perception

If you talk to Avs fans about their lousy season, you'll often hear how awful the defense was. It was obviously a sore spot with the team placing 26th overall in terms of GA.

The strange this is, none of the metrics aside from goals against suggest that Colorado was bad in their own end. The Avalanche actually allowed the 9th fewest shots against per game (29). And it's not like they were giving up break-aways or point blank chances: according to sites that track quality of shots against, Colorado was also in the top third of the league by these metrics: Desjardins has both Avs goalies with expected SV% of .915 (Budaj) and .916 (Raycroft). Nik Backstrom was the only regular starter with a higher expected SV% according to this process.

In addition, Hockey Numbers has COL SQA (shot quality against) at 0.97, good for 7th in the NHL.

The primary culprit, therefore, was the Avs crap-tastic goaltending. Colorado fans can thank the duo of Budaj and Raycroft for the Duchene pick this past entry draft.

It's funny how much blame the COL defense absorbs however. I'm certainly not calling Avs fans thick or unobservant, it's just the nature of perception: on almost every shot on goal, one could probably identify a mistake or missed opportunity to deny the chance. When pucks go in, the "mistakes" are noticed and tallied. If not, then not. For example: Jarome Iginla charges into the zone, one-on-one with Scott Hannan. Jarome makes a strong move left and fires the puck through Hannan's legs at the goal. Outcome one: Budaj makes the save, Hannan is lauded for not allowing Iginla a better chance. Outcome two: the puck sales through Budaj (again!) and Hannan is pilloried for not denying the shot AND providing an unwitting screen. The same play could be perceived differently based solely on the outcome. There's a reason bad goaltenders are coach killers (and good goaltenders make for genius coaches).

Something similar has been happening in Flames circles the last couple of years, although Calgary has been decidedly middling in terms of defensive performance in contrast to Colorado. That said, it'll be instructive to see what happens this year should the projected defensive improvement under Brent Sutter occur but without a concurrent rise in Kipper's SV%.

Luongo or Schneider. Pick one.

Despite being one year away from unrestricted free agency, reports are saying that goalie Roberto Luongo is discussing a contract extension with the Vancouver Canucks.

CKNW Radio in Vancouver is speculating that Luongo and his agent, Gilles Lupien, are asking for a long-term deal that would be at least five years in length...

From the start of the month.

Versus:

Goaltender Cory Schneider will be given a chance to make the Vancouver Canucks this fall, which could result in recent signing Andrew Raycroft playing for the AHL Manitoba Moose, general manager Mike Gillis said Tuesday.

"Our long-range plans are to keep him as a Vancouver Canuck and having him play here."

From two days ago.

Here's the problem with goalies...it just can't be both, folks. If Vancouver locks up Luongo long-term for big bucks - unless Schneider is happy watching most of the season as a door opener or "seasoning" in the AHL till his mid-20's - I don't think he'll be sticking around.

Ideally, signing Luongo short-term and aggressively developing Schneider in the mean time is the answer. Of course, you can only develop a kid in the minors for so long before he has to be tested against NHL shooters to see if he can make the leap. Problem is, that requires trying to split time with the expensive superstar - a job so thankless the Canucks apparently went out and got the worst (and therefore best) guy they could find to fill it this coming season.

If indeed Gillis manages to get Luongo's name on a long-term deal, it'll be fascinating to see what the Canucks do if Schneider knocks it out of the park in the AHL again - especially considering the trade market for AHL goalies (even really, really good ones) is quite poor.

Go get Nik Zherdev

Ever since he and his agent pulled a "hold out in Russia for more money" stunt in Columbus, Zherdev's reputation has taken a dive from "burgeoning superstar" to "enigmatic and inconsistent russian". At best. The fact that he had a rough season right after holding out for a big contract didn't help any.

Truth is, Zherdev was still a kid at the time, going through a kid's growing pains. Hell, he's still a kid at 24 years old. In terms of pure talent, he's up there. He's also already scored 20+ goals 3 times in his young career.

His boxcar numbers aren't staggering from last season (23-35-58), but keep in mind the Rangers were a brutal club in terms of offense at both ES and the PP. In contrast Zherdev's advanced ES stats speak pretty highly of him:

QUAL Comp: +0.03 (middling)
Corsi: +14.6 (second)
ESP/60: 2.56 (first)
+/-: +12 (first)

Zherdev outshot and outscored the opposition handily last year, even though most of his team was in the red in terms of plus/minus and he wasn't playing against 4th liners.

Of course, as per the Rangers habit of mismanagement, it looks Zherdev is on his way out of broadway. Apparently the club is annoyed that the kid filed for arbitration like 20 of this peers. Word is, the Rangers will walk away from any award that is too far north of 3M, making Zherdev a free agent. That also means the kid is up for grabs for peanuts prior to arbitration, meaning someone could pick Sather's pocket as long as they're prepared to deal with whatever Zherdev's awarded (or just negotiate a longer term deal with him before the hearing).

There's a good, young player up for grabs here. It'll be interesting to see who's paying attention.

Ah Murray Murray...oh Baby! You Gotta go...

I wondered aloud a few posts ago whether the Sens Bryan Murray might be the worst GM in the league. That was in response to the 8M Chris Neil contract, but there's a laundry list of F-ups to choose from: the deterioration of his team and blueline since making the finals, the Vermette for Leclaire trade, not to mention the ham fisted manner in which the Dany Heatley situation has been handled.

Now this. Murray has signed 36 year old Alexei Kovalev to a 2 year, $10M deal. Not only is Kovalev old, but, outside of that outlier season built on percentages in 07/08, he's not much of a player at ES. Last year, for example, he may have led the Canadiens in scoring but that had a lot to do with copious amounts of PP time as well as the injuries to Tanguay, Koivu and Lang. He actually placed fifth on the club in terms of ESP/60 (1.78), behind Tanguay, Koivu, Lang and Latendresse. Aside from 07/08, the last time he scored more than 70 points was 02/03. He's a career minus player as well.

Kovalev is still a capable enough as to not be totally worthless, but at that price and at that age, he's a bad bet. Hell, his salary is just 400k less than Daniel Alfredsson who is vastly superior player in my estimation.

Kings Ascension?

News came out recently the LA Kings have moved a couple of extra pieces for Ryan Smyth. Their top 6 now looks something like this:

Frolov-Kopitar-Brown
Smyth-Stoll-Williams

Scary. I count at least 4 or 5 guys who can take on heavy competition and keep their heads above water. Hell, I'm betting that first line could hang with some of the best in the league. None of those three guys scored at a good rate last year at ES, but they were all in the black in terms of corsi. The Kings outshot the opposition routinely despite being a bottom of the barrel club; it was a terrible ES SH% (a ghastly 6.8) that suppressed everyone's scoring. If this were, say, the Islanders inflicted with injury I'd admit that that pathetic success rate was indicative of a lack of skill - but, the Kings had a decent group of forwards (thus the outshooting) and I think it was just their time to be at the wrong end of the curve.

One guy to keep an eye on in particular is Dustin Brown. He led the league in terms of penalty differential by a country mile last year and he managed to fire 292 shots on net in just 80 games (Iginla had 289 in 82 by way of comparison). His PDO was 98.3, putting him in line for a rebound and the dude is 24 years old. He seems to have things figured out already and he's got a few more years to improve.

There's always a couple of Cinderella stories every NHL season. I half expect the Kings to be the WC's big mover next year, assuming Lombardi doesn't somehow fumble the ball at some point this summer.

Impressions after day 1

The good:

- Flames sign Bouwmeester. Yeah, the budgeting becomes more difficult going forward, but Bouwmeester is special class of player - already one of the best in the biz and just 25 years old. That's the type of player that you add if you can and make it work around him. Can't complain about the Pardy or Sjostrom signings either.

- Mike Knuble in WAS for 2.8M was a nice find. The big guy is a consistent 20+ goal scorer and can play against almost anyone without being under water. Solid player for a decent price - I was hoping the Flames would go after him with a similar deal.

- Craig Anderson in COL for pocket change is the deal they should have made last year instead of inking FAILcroft. The former Flames 3rd rounder hasn't played a ton the last few years, but his results have been outstanding. He's at the very least a good bet to provide league average goaltending, which is a steal at his price point. If he's any better than thay, the Avs win with this one big time. Low risk, high reward.

- Joel Ward at 3M for two years back in NSH is probably a good move. Did you know Ward had 17 goals last year? Do you know who Joel Ward is at all? He's basically the Preds David Moss - solid all around, scores enough to be useful, etc. These are great players to have for 1.5M.

- I also like Minny's signings of Greg Zanon at 1.93/year and Martin Havlat at 5. I've liked Zanon for awhile even though there's not much offense in him. Good penalty killer, solid and ES, blocks a ton of shots. He firms up any blueline. It's also hard to believe the Wild got Havlat for just 5M a year after the best season of his career. Not only did he finally play most of the games, he was also pressed into shut-down duty by Quenneville and he still slapped the opposition around at ES. Good to see Miikko Koivu finally get some help.

- Sammy Pahlsson probably isn't bad value at 2.65 for the Blue Jackets, who were in the market for a Malholtra replacement. Im guessing Hitchcock is pretty thrilled to have the checking center on his club.

The Bad:

- I laughed out loud when they announced Colton Orr to TOR for 4M over 4 years. Good ol' Burke and his cowbells! What a ridiculous contract for a guy who gets his ass-kicked (figuratively, of course) by other 4th liners.

- Pretty much everything touched by Bob Gainey: he trades a useful bunch of players and prospects to NYR in exchange for one of the worst contracts in the NHL in Scott Gomez. Then he lets Komisarek walk over a seemingly reasonable contract, but signs 35 year old Jaroslav Spacek for 3 years and bunch of cash. Not being satisfied with that, he marginally overpays Mike Cammalleri (5 years, 30M) and then grossly overpays Brian Gionta (5 years, 25M). Yuck. I'd be pretty down if I were a Habs fan today.

- Good to see Sather up to his old tricks. He scores a coup by fooling someone into taking Gomez off his hands...and then re-invests the savings in another bad bet, Marian Gaborik. The guy is fast and a top notch scorer, but there's probably no one in the NHL who is more injury prone. I can't imagine him covering his whole 7.5M salary each year.

- On a similar note, Steve Sullivan for 3.75M/year doesn't make much sense to me either. I'm a fan of Sullivan and think he's effective when healthy, but that's really rare. And the dude is 36 years old. It makes sense to try to sign someone like Sullivan, but only if you can get him at a sizable discount.

- Khabibulin to the Oilers. HAHA!

- Chris Neil for 2M for 4 years is total nonsense. He's a goon who is marginally better at ES than guys like Orr and Godard. Is Murray one of the worst GM's in the league right now?

- Scott Clemmensen lands in FLA for the same price Anderson got in COL. Anderson is younger and his career stats in both the NHL and AHL are vastly superior. Given how mediocre Clemmensen has been for years, there's probably no chance he repeats the run he had with the Devils last year.

More as they come in...

2009 Free Agency

I'll add my thoughts here as deals come in. My Flames stuff is elsewhere, but I'll talk about everything else here.

Some initial thoughts:

- I'm really interested to see what Minnesota will do. As of right now, I have no idea what direction the new regime will take. Risebrough was almost never a player on July 1, so I half expect Fletcher to try to make splash or two. I also think Saku Koivu will end up a Wild by the end of the day.

- The Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers both have a lot of spaces to fill and, with the Gomez deal, both have some money to spend. If every third contract today involves NYR or MON, I won't be surprised.

- Mike Cammalleri will end up in Toronto I think. Burke was probably hoping to see the Sedins make it to free agency, but with them off the table he'll turn his attention to other shiny baubles like Cammalleri.