Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Defensemen and shot Prevention

Capturing a defenseman's contribution to defense is tough to do quantitatively, given what we know about individual players effects on SV% (it's relatively negligible), which means relying on goals against is out. Also, does a stalwart defender cause more opposition shots to get blocked? Go wide? Or, in fact, do good defensemen prevent shots from happening at all by anticipating plays, intercepting passes and rubbing out guys along the boards (etc)?

It's this latter point I chose to explore recently. Having a lot of shots blocked or go wide while you're on the ice can also be a sign of weakness - for example, the defender that gives the puck away at his own blueline would get credit under such an assumption if the shot during the resultant break-away happened to miss the net.

It strikes me, therefore, that a measure of total shots against/60 will give us an idea of the relative strengths or weaknesses of a given player versus his teammates and, perhaps, the rest of the league (the lower the better).

Here's what I found for Flames defenders last year. All numbers are ES, of course:

click to enlarge

Keep in mind these numbers are absent context (quality of competition, quality of linemates, starting position). That said, this initial look passes the sniff test I think. The ranking roughly accords with who were the best to worst defenders on the club last year (in my estimation at least). I think if we were to map something like this on top of contextual factors, the rate becomes more meaningful. For example, Reggie's number is middling on the team, but given the fact that he faced the toughest opponents and started in his own end the most, his number becomes more impressive.

I haven't carried out this exercise for any other team, so maybe this is all coincidental and Im not really measuring anything here.

What so you folks? Useful? Not useful? Should it be applied to forwards as well? I'd like to see how some of the other clubs turn out...

PS - ES shot totals found via timeonice.com.