So the Hawks predictably walked away from Niemi's 2.75M arb award today and signed Marty Turco in his stead. First off, let's establish that I think the Hawks made the right move here, and not just because their precarious cap position left them basically no choice on the matter.
Goaltending in the best place to skimp on in the current environment, especially if you have a quality team on your hands. In addition, despite the perception that Niemi is now a quality, established starter in the league, he was simply the lesser of two evils last year thanks to Huet doing his best Andrew Raycroft impression. The only thing remotely impressive about Niemi was his win totals. His overall SV% was a mediocre .912 (good for about 20th overall), a number that was propped up by an unnaturally high SH SV% (.899). His ES SV% rate was merely .914 - good for 50th in the league. Nor does Niemi have any kind of impressive resume: in 2008-09, he managed a .913 save rate for the Rockford Icehogs of the AHL. One may be tempted to project Niemi as improving substantially as he grows into the role, but the truth is the dude is already 27 years old come August 29th. He's much closer to his ceiling than his floor and all evidence points to a fairly low ceiling.
Turco, on the other hand, has had a couple of off-seasons recently and carries around the stigma of fading has-been. However, the 34 year old managed a .926 ES SV% behind a decidedly inferior Dallas Stars team last year. Over the last 3 seasons his ES SV% has averaged .917...about the same as Miikka Kiprusoff and still superior to Niemi's .914. As such, paying less for Turco strikes me as a good bet for the Hawks, especially on a one-year contract.
Related, I wonder if Niemi's agent didn't stub his toe a bit this summer. I can sympathize with trying to leverage a Stanley Cup ring to a big pay day, but the truth is the Hawks were never in a position to pay his client what could be argued to be a "fair amount". The problem is the Hawks have called his bluff and now Niemi is a free agent in a decidedly stagnant market. Most clubs have spent their dollars and it's likely whatever team decides to take a chance on him: a.) won't pay him all that much anyways and b.) won't have the firepower to deliver him wins despite his mediocrity. Meaning Niemi won't get the big dollars in the short term anyways and may very well be exposed as a not-so-great goaltender (meaning no big dollars in the long term either). If I was Niemi's agent, I may have advised my client to consider a haircut on a one or two year deal (1.5M/year or something) in order to remain a Hawk.
