On the Anton Stralman Arbitration

Lots of interesting arb cases coming up, one of which is Anton Stralman - former Flame and Leaf and current Columbus Blue Jacket. Stralman was had for a 3rd rounder from CGY (don't ask) and ended up leading the Blue Jackets in scoring from the back-end with 34 points in 73 games. He's also just 24 years old.

That's not a player I'd take to arbitration personally (depending on his demands, of course). Frankly, I'd seek to lock him up for the next 4 years at anywhere from 1-2M a season.

However, it seems the BJ's are thinking of walking away from any award that lands in the 1.5-2.2M area. That's crazy talk.

And Why? Because of a team low -17 rating and the perceived "defensive liability" that comes with it (Stralman arrived with this stigma, so there's a bit of confirmation bias going on here).

Let's look at the underlying numbers to see if the reputation bears out -

- Stralman's QoC (corsi) was middling - worse than guys like Commodore and Pahlson, but superior to Russel and Methot. So he wasn't overly sheltered.

- Corsi = +2.17/60. Best amongst regular skaters on the team.

- Zonestart = 50.9%. Tougher than Russell (54%), but easier than the shut-down guys who were all below 50%.

- PDO = 96.8 (!!). Team low amongst regular skaters. Look no further if you want an explanation for his -17 rating. 'Twas the bounces.

- ESP/60 - 0.58. Meh.

- PPP/60 - 4.80. Best on the team amongst blueliners.

So middling competition and zonestart, team leading possession numbers, team leading PP production rate and a plus/minus killed by bad percentages. And he's 24 years old. This is a player CBJ should bet on, not spurn. They have about 10M in cap space and an urgent need for offensively capable players on the back-end. Playing hard ball with Stralman wouldn't make a lick of sense. It's not like there's better bargains sitting on the free agent market or anything.