Thursday, February 15, 2007

Calgary Vs Colorado - First of Three


Today begins a baseball style (back-to-back-to-back) series against the slowly sinking Colorado Avalanche. The Flames could well solidify their grip atop the NW Division with a couple of wins, while the Avs are just looking to keep their meager post-season hopes alive (as well as further complicate the lives of the Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish).

With all due respect, it doesn't look good for Colorado. The first two meetings between these clubs went to the Flames, including a 7-3 dismantling that occurred at the hands of Calgary's road team sans Iginla. Ouch. Two of the next three games are in Calgary, where the Flames are an NHL best 23-5-1; not good news for a mediocre road team like Colorado (11-12-1). They are last in the NW division, 10 points back of the Flames, 4-5-1 in their last 10 and have a GD of +5...

Not to mention, very average goaltending. Peter Budaj has been forced to grab the reins in Colorado this year in response to Theodore's continued descent into Jim-Carey-like netminder purgatory. Budaj's numbers through 35 games aren't terrible, but they certainly aren't good either. One of his 2 shut-outs came in the Av's last outing (against the suddenly hapless Ducks) so one can safely infer a repeat performance of that type is unlikely tonight. Not to mention the fact that Budaj has surrendered 19 goals to the Flames in only 311 minutes of play so far in his career. Fair to say he hasn't fared well.

Calgary on, the other hand, is likely on the bright side of their most recent slump. The odd thing about the 4 game losing streak was the improvement of their special teams, in particular their PP, despite all the other suckage. In fact, the Flames are now somehow 13th in the league with the man advantage. The goal now is to put together their earlier ES dominance with their new found PP production. If Calgary can find a way to combine both consistently going forward, it might not matter that the PK is in the bottom 3rd of the league...

Other stuff:
  • Kristian Huselius was at his dangling best against the Thrashers on Tuesday. If you watched the game, you may have noticed a couple of instances where he casually stepped outside of the offensive zone during his patented "sweep high near the blueline" arc. it occurred to me, when he did it the second time, that he has likely been coached to do this. Not in any "please put us offside Juice! The defense won't know what hit 'em!", but more of a "if you think you're in trouble near the blueline, don't try to force the play. Feel free to step outside the zone and regroup." This way, Playfair doesn't stifle Huselius' creativity in the offensive zone while managing to assuage some of the risk that comes with that creativity. Sure the price is an occasional relinquishing of pressure, but the reward - Juice's continued confidence and production - is more than worth it.
  • Lombo still seems to be amidst the struggles that began when Conroy arrived. And I think it has as much to do with his own psychology as it does with opportunity. Recently I've noticed Lombardi is trying to do too much on the ice. Against the Blue Jackets last week, he made at least 3 overly fancy back-hand passes in the BJ's zone that went to no one in particular. Against Atlanta, Lombardi had an opportunity to ice the puck during the PK - instead, he tried to step around the Thrashers defender and create an odd-man rush. The result was a stick check and continued Atlanta pressure in the Flames zone. The problem for Lombardi now is a self-perpetuating cycle - he can't get back among the top 6 if he continues to struggle. However, he might just continue to struggle if he can't get back among the top 6. ARGGH! Here's hoping Lombardi simplifies and finds a way to excel the next few games. His continued performance and growth are important for the Flames. This year and in the future.
As for tonight, let's go with a 5-2 Calgary victory. Moss, Iginla, Huselius, Phaneuf and Lombardi for Calgary. Wolski and Sakic for the Avs.

GO FLAMES GO!