Saturday, February 10, 2007

Joy and Dread

Were I not a not among the Flames faithful, I would be a Sabres fan.

Not due to any prior youthful influence or geographical proximity. I just flat out enjoy watching them play.

As such, I've been looking forward to this particular match-up all year. By that I mean - anticipating it with joy as a hockey fan and with dread as Flames fan. Make no mistake about it, the Sabres are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. They have a strong, mobile blueline, mountains of offense and 2 quality goaltenders. four of their forwards - Drury, Briere, Afinogenov and Vanek - are genuine gamebreaker talents. All five have already eclipsed the 20 goal mark, while Ales Kotalik and Jochen Hecht are knocking on the door with 14 each. They have allowed 25 more goals than the Flames this season (159-134), but still have a GD of +42 thanks to their league leading 201 GF.

The only real weaknesses I can detect in the Sabres is their special teams and, perhaps, lack of grit. The Sabres currently rank 15 on the PP and 18 on the PK - which is odd especially in terms of the PP number given their propensity to generate offense. However, that doesn't help the Flames much since they are actually worse than the Buffaslugs in both measures. Sigh.

So "lack of grit" is all we're left with. Buffalo doesn't have a single, punishing defenseman or brutish stalwart on the back-end, nor would I classify most of their front-enders as "power forwards". Guys like Briere, Drury and Pominville are certainly "fiesty", but hardly conjure fear in the hearts of their opponents (from a "physically punishing" perspective). Kotalik, Vanek and Afinogenov are all rangy, crafty, offensively gifted players that are also relatively soft. I would suggest only Paul Gaustad and Andrew Peters are players of the truly "greasy" variety.

For their part, then, the Flames will have to play a smart but physical road game in order to taste any measure of success this evening. Apparently, in an effort to shake the team from the dissociative fugure that seems to grip them in hotels, Playfair has re-shuffled the lines for tonight's contest. During practice, Iginla skated on a line with Langkow and Friesen, while Lombo moved back up between Tanguay and Amonte. Conroy was placed with Nilson and Moss while the final trio was some combination of Juice, Yelle, Ritchie and Godard.

The only sense I can make of the above troikas is, perhaps, Playfair's wish to match the Sabres line for line, since they tend to roll all 4 pretty consistently. What it looks like to me, though, is the neutralization of offensive production. Huselius with Yelle and Ritchie? Tanguay with Lombo is nice, but Amonte can't hit the net from 3 feet out anymore. The Conroy combo looks like a decent 3rd line, but I wouldn't expect them to score much either. I guess the first trio could pot a couple, but that's only because of Iginla and Langks and in spite of Friesen.

Perhaps it's foolish to expect Playfair to be stoic and steadfast in his line combinations anyways. I've no doubt that, as the game progresses, the wheat will seperate from the chaffe, resulting in some more familiar threesomes up front.

In conclusion, I say the Flames shake off some of their road woes tonight and come out fast and hard. 4-3 Calgary victory with Jarome (2 - he can't be that bad 3 games in a row), Lombardi and Phaneuf scoring for the Flames and Briere, Afinogenov and Campbell (all in my pool, heh) for the Sabres.

GO FLAMES!

For a view from the other side, visit Sabre Rattling.