Via the radio I've learned that the Flames have re-signed David Hale (1 year contract) and, surprisingly, Wayne Primeau (3 year contract). No word on dollar figures yet.
I expected Hale to be re-upped but not Primeau. Wayne excelled the first couple weeks as a Flame but then seemed to settle into the basic, dime-a-dozen depth guy type performance later on. I figured he'd be allowed to walk as his contributions could probably be replaced by a rookie. I guess Sutter disagreed with me.
That's the 2nd bottom-6 player signing that's surprised me this off-season (the first being Marcus Nilson). Available roster spots for aspiring baby Flames seem to be drying up pretty quickly.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Scrap Heap
In a pretty short period of time, Nick Boynton has gone from NHL all star in '04 to waiver wire cast-off now in '07. He struggled on a bad Coyotes team last year (after struggling on a bad Bruins team the year before that) and was behind the likes of Morris, Ballard, Michalek and Jovonovski in terms of ice-time. His contract, which extends to '09, pays him an average of 2.950MM per year. That's not insignificant, although I believe the 'Yotes would be on the hook for half that amount if he's claimed...
EDIT - (actually the above only applies to players who have been claimed through re-entry waivers. Nevermind).
Is Boynton worth a gamble from a Calgary Flames perspetive? At this point, probably not. Boynton has had injury and contract issues throughout his relatively brief career, a career which already seems to be on the downturn. He was packaged for a very similar player by his original team and then subsequently tossed on the scrap heap after falling behind younger and cheaper guys like Ballard and Michalek. He has a lot of the tools needed to be a top 4 blueliner, but it looks like the wiring upstairs may be a little faulty.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Oilers make a claim for Boynton though: he's a veritable star compared to the motley crew they currently deploy on the back-end.
EDIT - (actually the above only applies to players who have been claimed through re-entry waivers. Nevermind).
Is Boynton worth a gamble from a Calgary Flames perspetive? At this point, probably not. Boynton has had injury and contract issues throughout his relatively brief career, a career which already seems to be on the downturn. He was packaged for a very similar player by his original team and then subsequently tossed on the scrap heap after falling behind younger and cheaper guys like Ballard and Michalek. He has a lot of the tools needed to be a top 4 blueliner, but it looks like the wiring upstairs may be a little faulty.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Oilers make a claim for Boynton though: he's a veritable star compared to the motley crew they currently deploy on the back-end.
Wisdom of Crowds?
Colby Cosh has a fantastic little "thought experiment" over at his blog which beggars the question: how important are (Edmonton Oiler's) hockey scouts?
Basically, the parameters of the experiment, as defined by Cosh, are as follows-
Imagine you're an Oilers fan who inherits a time machine from his wacky scientist uncle, only to find out that the damn thing actually works. Naturally, instead of going back to kill Hitler in 1933 or anything like that, you decide to return to the mid-'90s and arrange the violent demise of Oilers scouting director Barry Fraser and his staff. Having created this terrible crisis you are asked to rectify it with the tools available, but instead of going out and hiring a bunch of ex-jocks to replenish the lost personnel, you decide to hire a little old retired lady at $10 an hour.
This plump little pumpkin of a woman knows literally nothing about hockey, but she's your new Scouting Director. Your instructions to her are to attend the NHL draft with the two big lists of North American and European skaters as ranked by the league's Central Scouting Service; cross off names as they're announced by other teams; and when that nice Mr. Bettman calls her up to the stage for the team's first draft choice, she is to read out the highest-ranked name not yet crossed off on either list.
The results, as you may or may not guess, are surprising (or not, depending on your opinion of Oilers scouting). Makes one wonder if the wisdom of crowds is the way to go when it comes to drafting. Consensus of independent 3rd parties doesn't necessarily replace the skills of a trusted scout, but it can certainly eliminate the bias' that may exist in said individual.
It'd be interesting to carry out a similar experiment with previous Flames draft choices, particularly those during the dreaded "Young Guns" era. Shudder.
Thanks for a great post, Colby.
Basically, the parameters of the experiment, as defined by Cosh, are as follows-
Imagine you're an Oilers fan who inherits a time machine from his wacky scientist uncle, only to find out that the damn thing actually works. Naturally, instead of going back to kill Hitler in 1933 or anything like that, you decide to return to the mid-'90s and arrange the violent demise of Oilers scouting director Barry Fraser and his staff. Having created this terrible crisis you are asked to rectify it with the tools available, but instead of going out and hiring a bunch of ex-jocks to replenish the lost personnel, you decide to hire a little old retired lady at $10 an hour.
This plump little pumpkin of a woman knows literally nothing about hockey, but she's your new Scouting Director. Your instructions to her are to attend the NHL draft with the two big lists of North American and European skaters as ranked by the league's Central Scouting Service; cross off names as they're announced by other teams; and when that nice Mr. Bettman calls her up to the stage for the team's first draft choice, she is to read out the highest-ranked name not yet crossed off on either list.
The results, as you may or may not guess, are surprising (or not, depending on your opinion of Oilers scouting). Makes one wonder if the wisdom of crowds is the way to go when it comes to drafting. Consensus of independent 3rd parties doesn't necessarily replace the skills of a trusted scout, but it can certainly eliminate the bias' that may exist in said individual.
It'd be interesting to carry out a similar experiment with previous Flames draft choices, particularly those during the dreaded "Young Guns" era. Shudder.
Thanks for a great post, Colby.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Looking Forward
With the draft over and unrestricted free agency rapidly approaching, I think it's a good time to revisit the Flames needs/wants list with an eye to what might be available out there come July 1st.
Defencemen:
With the acquisition of Aucoin (and banishment of Zyuzin), Sutter only has one more hole left to fill on the back-end. Thanks to some pre-July deals, guys like Timonen, Rivet and Markov are no longer options, unfortunately. So what's left?
Brian Rafalski - Not overly physical, the fleet-footed Rafalski is almost always good for 20 minutes a night and 45 points a season. Had a career year in terms of points in 06/07 and will likely be one of the most sought after blueliners now that Timonen is gone. Rafalski would probably be a decent compliment to Regehr (a la Jordon Leopold), but I doubt the Flames will win this sweepstakes.
Brad Stuart - Word is Stuart will be headed to West Coast this summer, possibly back to the San Jose Sharks. I liked the mobility and physicality Stuart brought to the Flames during his short stint, but he was more or less a void when it came to the offensive zone. He complimented Regehr pretty well, but I'm not sure he'll be worth the 5M or so contract he'll be commanding. I think Stuart has peaked in his current manifestation as a decent top-four rearguard who is capable but not elite in any one area.
Scott Hannan is familiar to Sutter which puts him a few steps ahead of most of the other candidates by virtue of Darryl's tendency to stick with players he knows. Hannan led the Sharks in terms of ES and SH ice-time last year, meaning he can likely play the tough minutes against the heavy hitters. In fact, according to Dejardins, Hannan did indeed play the "hardest minutes" out of all of SJ's defenders last year. He's not terribly useful in the offensive zone (career high = 24 points), but that's not overly important for a shut-down defencemen. In addition, his unimpressive offensive numbers may render him more affordable, which is actually a nice ancillary benefit. Overall, I expect the Flames to make a big-time push to sign Scotty next week.
Darryl Sydor isn't getting any younger, but he's still a capable player. Last season with the Stars, Sydor averaged 20 minutes a night, much of it at ES (14:31) and SH (3:01). He ended the year an unimpressive -4, but that had a lot to do with the fact that the Stars didn't score a lot of goals (Boucher and Daley were the only Stars defencemen above water at +2). Sydor would likely be a relative bargain (2.5M?) thanks to his age and the concurrent risk of diminishing returns and could prove to be a useful mentor for Dion Phaneuf. If the Flames can't land Hannan, I'd like to see them take a run at Sydor, provided he isn't looking for anything too long term.
Marek Zidlicky isn't a pending UFA but is an intriguing possibility now that Nashville's in full on "fire sale" mode. After managing 53 points and 49 points in his first two seasons, respectively, Zidlicky experienced a significant step backwards last year, stats-wise (4-26-30 in 72 GP), despite the fact he garnered an average of four and half minutes per game on the PP. He played the least amount of any regular Predator defender at SH (21:14 all year) and he's not exactly cheap (3.350M cap hit, contract till 09/10), perhaps making him more of a lemon than a diamond in the rough. I think the only way I'd favor acquiring Zidlicky would be a straight-up swap for Rhett Warrener. And since the Preds are looking to shed salary, it's doubtful that that kind of deal would ever come to pass...
Wingers:
Two of the 3 RWers I suggested as potential future Flames back in May have been removed from the market (Hartnell and Walker). The lone remaining guy from that list, Mike Johnson, would likely be affordable but less than ideal fit for the 2nd line, top 6 kind of vacancy the Flames have. Who else is there?
Dainius Zubrus is a big player who has the tools to be a scoring winger, although last year was the first time he ever cracked the 60 point barrier. He's probably going to command something between 4 and 5M per year and it's debatable whether he'll prove to be worth a long-term, big dollar commitment. At 28, one has to wonder if Zubrus' 60 point season is a sign of things to come or simply a aberrant "contract" season. If it proves to be the latter, his contract will become a bit of an anchor for whoever lands him. I don't think he'll be a Flame any time soon.
Ryan Smyth to Calgary rumors have been resistant to extinction for whatever reason. Personally, I just don't see it happening, although a Huselius-Langkow-Smyth line has a nice ring to it (not to mention the delicious bleating and wailing such a situation would evoke from the long-suffering Oilers faithful), there are some serious barriers to Smyth ever donning the Flaming C:
Smyth is going to be one of the most pursued UFA on the market and he's not going to come cheap. He's never cracked the 70 point threshold and will likely be looking for a long-term commitment from whoever signs him. I don't know about anyone else, but a 35 year-old 60 point player eating up $5M+ in cap space a few seasons down the road doesn't sit too well with me. Especially with the pending budget crunch after next season. On the plus side, he's a proven 30 goal scorer and a blood-and-guts team player, so I don't think I'd complain too loudly should the improbable happen. I still have considerable doubts, however.
Mike Johnson I discussed previously. He's a good PK, 40 point guy who can play against tougher competition without being overwhelmed. I consider him a "last resort" kind of option.
It's safe to say Paul Kariya won't be re-signed by the Preds, although Im guessing his price will be a bit above what the Flames will be looking at. Kariya is one of the most accomplished point-getting wingers on the market and will be looking for something above his previous 4.5M/year deal.
Personally, I haven't been impressed with Kariya's play the last few seasons, despite his decent numbers. He looks to be slowly but surely drifting away from the impact player he once was en route to becoming a 2nd tier support guy that can only excel against softer competition. In the post-season against the Sharks, Kariya was frequently one of the most ineffective Predators on the ice. He managed just 2 points in 5 games and ended up -4.
All told, I think the Flames will pass on Kariya. He's going to be pricey and he's on the downslope of his career.
Ales Kotalik is another potential "salary-dump" acquisition. Word out of Buffalo is the Sabres want to rid themselves of Kotalik's 2.333M cap hit in order to free up the dollars to sign Drury or Briere (or both). The big right winger has a hard and heavy shot and can produce on the PP. He's a two-time 20 goal scorer who struggled last season thanks to some inconsistency, the Sabre's depth and an injury. His major problem is a lack of defensive awareness that makes him a liability at ES against tougher competition. Although getting a potential 20 goal, 60 point player for prospects is attractive (don't forget the Sabres and Flames have been trading partners in the past), one has to wonder if the inconsistent Kotalik would flourish under Iron Mike's tyrannical rule.
Hard to say, although I for one wouldn't mind the gamble. He would add an element to the Flames PP and would be a nice complement to Huselius' puck distributing skills on the 2nd line. The Flames top unit of Iginla/Tanguay/[center] (Lombo?) will likely face the opposition's best players, meaning Kotalik could probably be sheltered at ES, thereby reducing the impact of his (lack of) defensive acumen. Plus, his contract isn't that onerous in terms of dollars or length (2.33M/year until 08/09) and probably represents better value than what can be had on the open market. These factors make him palatable budget-wise and easily movable if he doesn't work out. I say it's worth a shot, depending on what the Sabres demand in return.
Anyways, that's my Flames UFA-season primer. I proceeded with the assumption that a top 6 winger and a top 4 defender are Sutter's priorities, although there are some other, perhaps less pressing issues to consider (bottom 6 depth, back-up goaltender, what to do with Warrener's burden of a contract).
On a semi-related note, there have been whisperings of an Iginla contract extension in the works. It was reported on the radio this morning that Don Meehan (Iggy's agent) has confirmed that talks are in progress and that there will likely be an announcement shortly after July 1st. I really, really hope this is true...especially since it would help avoid a Lowe/Smyth trade deadline type debacle.
Defencemen:
With the acquisition of Aucoin (and banishment of Zyuzin), Sutter only has one more hole left to fill on the back-end. Thanks to some pre-July deals, guys like Timonen, Rivet and Markov are no longer options, unfortunately. So what's left?
Brian Rafalski - Not overly physical, the fleet-footed Rafalski is almost always good for 20 minutes a night and 45 points a season. Had a career year in terms of points in 06/07 and will likely be one of the most sought after blueliners now that Timonen is gone. Rafalski would probably be a decent compliment to Regehr (a la Jordon Leopold), but I doubt the Flames will win this sweepstakes.
Brad Stuart - Word is Stuart will be headed to West Coast this summer, possibly back to the San Jose Sharks. I liked the mobility and physicality Stuart brought to the Flames during his short stint, but he was more or less a void when it came to the offensive zone. He complimented Regehr pretty well, but I'm not sure he'll be worth the 5M or so contract he'll be commanding. I think Stuart has peaked in his current manifestation as a decent top-four rearguard who is capable but not elite in any one area.
Scott Hannan is familiar to Sutter which puts him a few steps ahead of most of the other candidates by virtue of Darryl's tendency to stick with players he knows. Hannan led the Sharks in terms of ES and SH ice-time last year, meaning he can likely play the tough minutes against the heavy hitters. In fact, according to Dejardins, Hannan did indeed play the "hardest minutes" out of all of SJ's defenders last year. He's not terribly useful in the offensive zone (career high = 24 points), but that's not overly important for a shut-down defencemen. In addition, his unimpressive offensive numbers may render him more affordable, which is actually a nice ancillary benefit. Overall, I expect the Flames to make a big-time push to sign Scotty next week.
Darryl Sydor isn't getting any younger, but he's still a capable player. Last season with the Stars, Sydor averaged 20 minutes a night, much of it at ES (14:31) and SH (3:01). He ended the year an unimpressive -4, but that had a lot to do with the fact that the Stars didn't score a lot of goals (Boucher and Daley were the only Stars defencemen above water at +2). Sydor would likely be a relative bargain (2.5M?) thanks to his age and the concurrent risk of diminishing returns and could prove to be a useful mentor for Dion Phaneuf. If the Flames can't land Hannan, I'd like to see them take a run at Sydor, provided he isn't looking for anything too long term.
Marek Zidlicky isn't a pending UFA but is an intriguing possibility now that Nashville's in full on "fire sale" mode. After managing 53 points and 49 points in his first two seasons, respectively, Zidlicky experienced a significant step backwards last year, stats-wise (4-26-30 in 72 GP), despite the fact he garnered an average of four and half minutes per game on the PP. He played the least amount of any regular Predator defender at SH (21:14 all year) and he's not exactly cheap (3.350M cap hit, contract till 09/10), perhaps making him more of a lemon than a diamond in the rough. I think the only way I'd favor acquiring Zidlicky would be a straight-up swap for Rhett Warrener. And since the Preds are looking to shed salary, it's doubtful that that kind of deal would ever come to pass...
Wingers:
Two of the 3 RWers I suggested as potential future Flames back in May have been removed from the market (Hartnell and Walker). The lone remaining guy from that list, Mike Johnson, would likely be affordable but less than ideal fit for the 2nd line, top 6 kind of vacancy the Flames have. Who else is there?
Dainius Zubrus is a big player who has the tools to be a scoring winger, although last year was the first time he ever cracked the 60 point barrier. He's probably going to command something between 4 and 5M per year and it's debatable whether he'll prove to be worth a long-term, big dollar commitment. At 28, one has to wonder if Zubrus' 60 point season is a sign of things to come or simply a aberrant "contract" season. If it proves to be the latter, his contract will become a bit of an anchor for whoever lands him. I don't think he'll be a Flame any time soon.
Ryan Smyth to Calgary rumors have been resistant to extinction for whatever reason. Personally, I just don't see it happening, although a Huselius-Langkow-Smyth line has a nice ring to it (not to mention the delicious bleating and wailing such a situation would evoke from the long-suffering Oilers faithful), there are some serious barriers to Smyth ever donning the Flaming C:
Smyth is going to be one of the most pursued UFA on the market and he's not going to come cheap. He's never cracked the 70 point threshold and will likely be looking for a long-term commitment from whoever signs him. I don't know about anyone else, but a 35 year-old 60 point player eating up $5M+ in cap space a few seasons down the road doesn't sit too well with me. Especially with the pending budget crunch after next season. On the plus side, he's a proven 30 goal scorer and a blood-and-guts team player, so I don't think I'd complain too loudly should the improbable happen. I still have considerable doubts, however.
Mike Johnson I discussed previously. He's a good PK, 40 point guy who can play against tougher competition without being overwhelmed. I consider him a "last resort" kind of option.
It's safe to say Paul Kariya won't be re-signed by the Preds, although Im guessing his price will be a bit above what the Flames will be looking at. Kariya is one of the most accomplished point-getting wingers on the market and will be looking for something above his previous 4.5M/year deal.
Personally, I haven't been impressed with Kariya's play the last few seasons, despite his decent numbers. He looks to be slowly but surely drifting away from the impact player he once was en route to becoming a 2nd tier support guy that can only excel against softer competition. In the post-season against the Sharks, Kariya was frequently one of the most ineffective Predators on the ice. He managed just 2 points in 5 games and ended up -4.
All told, I think the Flames will pass on Kariya. He's going to be pricey and he's on the downslope of his career.
Ales Kotalik is another potential "salary-dump" acquisition. Word out of Buffalo is the Sabres want to rid themselves of Kotalik's 2.333M cap hit in order to free up the dollars to sign Drury or Briere (or both). The big right winger has a hard and heavy shot and can produce on the PP. He's a two-time 20 goal scorer who struggled last season thanks to some inconsistency, the Sabre's depth and an injury. His major problem is a lack of defensive awareness that makes him a liability at ES against tougher competition. Although getting a potential 20 goal, 60 point player for prospects is attractive (don't forget the Sabres and Flames have been trading partners in the past), one has to wonder if the inconsistent Kotalik would flourish under Iron Mike's tyrannical rule.
Hard to say, although I for one wouldn't mind the gamble. He would add an element to the Flames PP and would be a nice complement to Huselius' puck distributing skills on the 2nd line. The Flames top unit of Iginla/Tanguay/[center] (Lombo?) will likely face the opposition's best players, meaning Kotalik could probably be sheltered at ES, thereby reducing the impact of his (lack of) defensive acumen. Plus, his contract isn't that onerous in terms of dollars or length (2.33M/year until 08/09) and probably represents better value than what can be had on the open market. These factors make him palatable budget-wise and easily movable if he doesn't work out. I say it's worth a shot, depending on what the Sabres demand in return.
Anyways, that's my Flames UFA-season primer. I proceeded with the assumption that a top 6 winger and a top 4 defender are Sutter's priorities, although there are some other, perhaps less pressing issues to consider (bottom 6 depth, back-up goaltender, what to do with Warrener's burden of a contract).
On a semi-related note, there have been whisperings of an Iginla contract extension in the works. It was reported on the radio this morning that Don Meehan (Iggy's agent) has confirmed that talks are in progress and that there will likely be an announcement shortly after July 1st. I really, really hope this is true...especially since it would help avoid a Lowe/Smyth trade deadline type debacle.
Monday, June 25, 2007
The Rest of the Draft
After some minor wheeling and dealing, The Calgary Flames ended up with 5 picks in the '07 entry draft. After selecting Mikael Backlund 24th overall in the first round, they chose D John Negrin 70th (3rd round), D Keith Aulie 116th (4th round), C Mickey Renaud 143rd (5th round) and LW CJ Severyn 186th (7th round).
Negrin is a 6'2" defenceman from the Kootney Ice. He's described as a fleet-footed, mobile rearguard who can move the puck and who's not overly physical but offers some offense from the back-end. He managed 1 goal and 16 points in 44 games with the Ice. He was the 85th ranked North American player by Central Scouting prior to the draft, a ranking that may have dropped due to a concussion he suffered mid-way through the season.
Aulie, standing at 6'6", is probably the tallest Flame draft pick in recent memory. I haven't heard much about this kid, except for the fact he saved his father from an icy grave back on the family farm. His stats from last season are uninspiring (1-8-9, +3 in 66GP) but I'm guessing he's tabbed more for his physical play and defensive presence than offensive output. Central Scouting ranked him the 108th best NA skater going into the draft.
Renaud is another big boy, standing 6'2" and weighing 215 pounds. He put up some decent numbers (22-32-54 in 68GP) on a young Windsor Spitfires team that struggled to remain competitive in the OHL last year. Word is he'll be looked upon as a leader for that squad going forward. Central Scouting ranked him the 110th best NA skater going into the draft.
Severyn is a US Juniors prospect. I don't know much about him to be honest, but, as a 7th round pick, I can safely say he's a long-shot to ever make the NHL anyways.
I'm fairly satisfied with the draft, although Im surprised the Flames didn't target more wingers. A "best player available at the time" philosophy dominates Sutter's draft strategy, and this time it yielded mainly centers and defencemen.
Next up...free agent lunacy.
Negrin is a 6'2" defenceman from the Kootney Ice. He's described as a fleet-footed, mobile rearguard who can move the puck and who's not overly physical but offers some offense from the back-end. He managed 1 goal and 16 points in 44 games with the Ice. He was the 85th ranked North American player by Central Scouting prior to the draft, a ranking that may have dropped due to a concussion he suffered mid-way through the season.
Aulie, standing at 6'6", is probably the tallest Flame draft pick in recent memory. I haven't heard much about this kid, except for the fact he saved his father from an icy grave back on the family farm. His stats from last season are uninspiring (1-8-9, +3 in 66GP) but I'm guessing he's tabbed more for his physical play and defensive presence than offensive output. Central Scouting ranked him the 108th best NA skater going into the draft.
Renaud is another big boy, standing 6'2" and weighing 215 pounds. He put up some decent numbers (22-32-54 in 68GP) on a young Windsor Spitfires team that struggled to remain competitive in the OHL last year. Word is he'll be looked upon as a leader for that squad going forward. Central Scouting ranked him the 110th best NA skater going into the draft.
Severyn is a US Juniors prospect. I don't know much about him to be honest, but, as a 7th round pick, I can safely say he's a long-shot to ever make the NHL anyways.
I'm fairly satisfied with the draft, although Im surprised the Flames didn't target more wingers. A "best player available at the time" philosophy dominates Sutter's draft strategy, and this time it yielded mainly centers and defencemen.
Next up...free agent lunacy.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Introducing Mikael Backlund
Im not sure I could be more excited about the Flames first round selection, given the fact that they dropped down to pick at #24. Backlund was a consensus top 5 talent in this year's crop before he suffered a knee injury which knocked him out for a long portion of the season.
I've never seen him play, but the descriptions circulating about this kid are all good. He was chosen as the best player in the Mac's Midget Tournament a couple of yers ago. He led all goal scorers in the recent U-18 world championships with 7 goals. Some have even compared him to the likes of Forsberg and Zetterberg. The TSN top 60 prospect list includes nuggets from Central Scouting and the ISS that describe Backlund as a strong 2-way center with soft hands and good vision.
Im a little suprised Sutter decided to go with a center, given the organizations srength down the middle, but clearly he thought that Backlund was the best player available at the time. I can't say I disagree with him.
PS - It'll be interesting to see if the Flames go after Maxime Tanguay tomorrow with their newly acquired 3rd round choice (70th overall).
It Begins! Aucoin Grabbed by the Flames
TSN is reporting that Sutter has nabbed Adrian Aucoin from the Blackhawks for another one of my punching bags, Andrei Zyuzin (I've losing a lot of those guys recently: Ference, Friesen, Amonte. Only Warrener remains).
Obviously Im happy the Flames were able to rid themselves of Zyuzin's contract (and presence). He was, without a doubt, the worst blueliner on the club last year and his 1.45M contract was a complete waste of dollars and cap space. His inclusion in the deal also takes some of the sting out of the 4M/year contract coming back the other way.
Aucoin is another calculated gamble. He looked to be emerging as a premier blueliner the year he was signed by Chicago and then he promptly went in the toilet. Plagued by inconsistency and numerous injuries during his Windy City tenure (notably shoulder and groin problems), Aucoin never amounted to much as a Blackhawk and I can see why they want to rid themselves of his cumbersome cap number. He's no spring chicken at 34 and his position as a #1 rearguard had been usurped by Chicago's up and comers (Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook).
Does this make sense from a Calgary Flames perspective? Assuming Aucoin can stay healthy, then yes. Unfortunately, that's a big assumption. Aucoin did have his best offensive season, goals-wise, under Mike Keenan back in '98, so there's some hope he can recapture some of the sparkle under Iron Mike again. Aucoin also has all of the tools to be a top 4 defenseman - big, relatively mobile, mean, cannon shot from the point - so the Flames could certainly have a decent asset on their hands (again assuming he plays more than 30 games a season).
Besides the Keenan connection, the off-season action regarding defensemen renders this move sensible. Already much of the cream of the UFA crop has been removed from the open market: Timonen, Markov and Rivet have all been locked down with pretty big contracts. The resultant dearth of quality free agents on the back-end come July 1st ensures relatively high ticket prices for all those concerned. The risk for a team like the Flames, who need to fill out their back-end with the pending loss of Hamrlik and Stuart, was paying a relatively mediocre player too much for too long out of desperation. Aucoin has the ability to be a top 4 defender and while his 4.0M/year contract is hardly cheap, it's only a 2 season commitment.
I think I like this deal, though it's hard to get excited while looking at Aucoin's numbers over the past couple of years. He's minus a lot (most were in Chicago, however) and hasn't played more than 60 games since 03/04. If his injuries are past him, Aucoin might be a steal. If not, the Flames will be left flailing around looking for someone to fill in while he nurses his sore groin in the press-box.
Course, on the other hand, we got rid of that useless tit, Andrei Zyuzin. That's nothing but good.
EDIT - Reactions:
Duhatschek.
The Real Deal.
Flames Blog.
Covered in Oil laughs.
Obviously Im happy the Flames were able to rid themselves of Zyuzin's contract (and presence). He was, without a doubt, the worst blueliner on the club last year and his 1.45M contract was a complete waste of dollars and cap space. His inclusion in the deal also takes some of the sting out of the 4M/year contract coming back the other way.
Aucoin is another calculated gamble. He looked to be emerging as a premier blueliner the year he was signed by Chicago and then he promptly went in the toilet. Plagued by inconsistency and numerous injuries during his Windy City tenure (notably shoulder and groin problems), Aucoin never amounted to much as a Blackhawk and I can see why they want to rid themselves of his cumbersome cap number. He's no spring chicken at 34 and his position as a #1 rearguard had been usurped by Chicago's up and comers (Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook).
Does this make sense from a Calgary Flames perspective? Assuming Aucoin can stay healthy, then yes. Unfortunately, that's a big assumption. Aucoin did have his best offensive season, goals-wise, under Mike Keenan back in '98, so there's some hope he can recapture some of the sparkle under Iron Mike again. Aucoin also has all of the tools to be a top 4 defenseman - big, relatively mobile, mean, cannon shot from the point - so the Flames could certainly have a decent asset on their hands (again assuming he plays more than 30 games a season).
Besides the Keenan connection, the off-season action regarding defensemen renders this move sensible. Already much of the cream of the UFA crop has been removed from the open market: Timonen, Markov and Rivet have all been locked down with pretty big contracts. The resultant dearth of quality free agents on the back-end come July 1st ensures relatively high ticket prices for all those concerned. The risk for a team like the Flames, who need to fill out their back-end with the pending loss of Hamrlik and Stuart, was paying a relatively mediocre player too much for too long out of desperation. Aucoin has the ability to be a top 4 defender and while his 4.0M/year contract is hardly cheap, it's only a 2 season commitment.
I think I like this deal, though it's hard to get excited while looking at Aucoin's numbers over the past couple of years. He's minus a lot (most were in Chicago, however) and hasn't played more than 60 games since 03/04. If his injuries are past him, Aucoin might be a steal. If not, the Flames will be left flailing around looking for someone to fill in while he nurses his sore groin in the press-box.
Course, on the other hand, we got rid of that useless tit, Andrei Zyuzin. That's nothing but good.
EDIT - Reactions:
Duhatschek.
The Real Deal.
Flames Blog.
Covered in Oil laughs.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Flames Draft Preview
Predicting Darryl Sutter moves on draft day is a fool's errand at best. The only clues available are his disingenuous quotes in the local papers. Sutter's recent claims to the Calgary press that he will NOT bet trading the Flames first round, 18th overall pick almost completely guarantees that that is actually exactly what he has in mind.
For those unaware, the Flames only own 5 selections in this year's draft and only one of them is in the first 4 rounds (18th). The rest of the picks include:
5th round (139th overall)
5th round (147th overall) - from NJ
6th round (155th overall) - from WAS
6th round (169th overall)
Not the most impressive collection of future considerations. I think the only certainty for Calgary fans heading into tomorrow is Sutter will make a deal or two in order to close the gap between those 1st round and 5th round selections. Calgary doesn't have a lot of expendable parts outside of Warrener and Zyuzin, neither of which will land you much (if anything), meaning Sutter may have to be swapping picks for picks - say Calgary's first round selection for a 2nd and 3rd from some club replete with picks. St. Louis Blues perhaps? Washington? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
As for the actual player part of the whole draft thing, in general I think the Flames will target big wingers and defencemen. The organization is decently stocked with goalies and centers and is particularly weak on the RW.
The Herald has a nice little prospect preview in the sports section today. Assuming, for the sake of argument Calgary actually keeps it's first rounder, some of the kids listed in the linked piece to keep in mind include:
Thomas Hickey (D), Alex Plante (D), Bill Sweatt (LW), Akim Aliu (W) and Tommy Cross (D). Also, Brandon Sutter is projected by some to go in the mid-to-late first round, meaning there's a possibility he could be a Flame by the end of the day. If Calgary does manage to acquire a few more mid-round selections, Maxime Tanguay (projected to go in the 2nd or 3rd round), little brother of Alex, is another familial connection that could be realized. Tanguay the elder has already gone on record to say he would be thrilled if the Flames picked his younger sibling:
"It'd be kind of a dream for me to play with him in the NHL, how Scott and Rob Niedermayer were able to do," he said. "Playing together with your brother, I don't think it can be any more fun, having a family member."
Uniting brothers on a team is a rare and valuable kind of leverage. Calgary has a burgeoning superstar on their hands in Alex Tanguay, meaning they may want to select Maxime simply for the sake of motivating Alex to stick around once his current contract expires.
Course, in the end, I'm more than certain that the Flames won't have a 1st round pick and/or will be making "off the board" selections throughout the proceedings anyways, as is Sutter's penchant.
The real fun will be had watching the twists and turns of the Edmonton Oilers tomorrow evening. The Oil have 3 first round selections, including the 6th overall, and a desperate GM who is in "salvage my position with the company" mode. Edmonton needs NHL caliber players at almost every position (but particularly on the blueline) RIGHT NOW, and I think Lowe could be motivated to move more than one of his picks for immediate help. Rumors have had guys like Redden and Pitkanen being targeted by Lowe, although whether or not Edmonton has enough assets to land either of those guys is a debate. The conundrum facing the Oilers is their need to add difference makers while retaining all of their current quality players as well. Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Staios, Smith, Pisani and Roloson are the core of the team but also the most attractive trade pieces for other squads. So while Edmonton has a pocket full of futures hey can use to deal with, any talk of roster players in return might just scuttle any potential trade talk. Heh. Sucks to be an Oilers fan these days.
For those unaware, the Flames only own 5 selections in this year's draft and only one of them is in the first 4 rounds (18th). The rest of the picks include:
5th round (139th overall)
5th round (147th overall) - from NJ
6th round (155th overall) - from WAS
6th round (169th overall)
Not the most impressive collection of future considerations. I think the only certainty for Calgary fans heading into tomorrow is Sutter will make a deal or two in order to close the gap between those 1st round and 5th round selections. Calgary doesn't have a lot of expendable parts outside of Warrener and Zyuzin, neither of which will land you much (if anything), meaning Sutter may have to be swapping picks for picks - say Calgary's first round selection for a 2nd and 3rd from some club replete with picks. St. Louis Blues perhaps? Washington? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
As for the actual player part of the whole draft thing, in general I think the Flames will target big wingers and defencemen. The organization is decently stocked with goalies and centers and is particularly weak on the RW.
The Herald has a nice little prospect preview in the sports section today. Assuming, for the sake of argument Calgary actually keeps it's first rounder, some of the kids listed in the linked piece to keep in mind include:
Thomas Hickey (D), Alex Plante (D), Bill Sweatt (LW), Akim Aliu (W) and Tommy Cross (D). Also, Brandon Sutter is projected by some to go in the mid-to-late first round, meaning there's a possibility he could be a Flame by the end of the day. If Calgary does manage to acquire a few more mid-round selections, Maxime Tanguay (projected to go in the 2nd or 3rd round), little brother of Alex, is another familial connection that could be realized. Tanguay the elder has already gone on record to say he would be thrilled if the Flames picked his younger sibling:
"It'd be kind of a dream for me to play with him in the NHL, how Scott and Rob Niedermayer were able to do," he said. "Playing together with your brother, I don't think it can be any more fun, having a family member."
Uniting brothers on a team is a rare and valuable kind of leverage. Calgary has a burgeoning superstar on their hands in Alex Tanguay, meaning they may want to select Maxime simply for the sake of motivating Alex to stick around once his current contract expires.
Course, in the end, I'm more than certain that the Flames won't have a 1st round pick and/or will be making "off the board" selections throughout the proceedings anyways, as is Sutter's penchant.
The real fun will be had watching the twists and turns of the Edmonton Oilers tomorrow evening. The Oil have 3 first round selections, including the 6th overall, and a desperate GM who is in "salvage my position with the company" mode. Edmonton needs NHL caliber players at almost every position (but particularly on the blueline) RIGHT NOW, and I think Lowe could be motivated to move more than one of his picks for immediate help. Rumors have had guys like Redden and Pitkanen being targeted by Lowe, although whether or not Edmonton has enough assets to land either of those guys is a debate. The conundrum facing the Oilers is their need to add difference makers while retaining all of their current quality players as well. Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Staios, Smith, Pisani and Roloson are the core of the team but also the most attractive trade pieces for other squads. So while Edmonton has a pocket full of futures hey can use to deal with, any talk of roster players in return might just scuttle any potential trade talk. Heh. Sucks to be an Oilers fan these days.
Monday, June 18, 2007
This 'n That
Flurry of activity today. First there's the announcement out of Ottawa that the Sens have forced Muckler to abdicate his throne for Murray. Then there's the bombshell trade and sign by Philly/Nashville involving Timonen and Hartnell.
The Sens decision to boot Muckler is rather baffling considering the level of success the organization has enjoyed during his reign. This may be, however, a move with an eye to the future since Muckler ain't no spring chicken...it's also been suggested elsewhere that The Senators wanted to retain the services of Bryan Murray, who potentially could have been coaxed to another Franchise with the promise of becoming a GM. All that in view, here's the real question to consider: would Muckler have been fired had the Senators won the cup this year? I'm guessing, no.
Timonen and Hartnell for (Nashville's) first round draft pick - talk about a ballsy move by a rookie GM, Holmgren is definitely making his presence felt in Philly. He's effectively turned a hobbled-former-superstar in Forsberg into Hartnell, Timonen, Parent and Upshall. Regardless if you think the resultant salary figures for Scotty and Kimmo are inflated (they are - 25.2M for and 37.8M for 6 years, respectively) that's still mighty impressive. From a Nashville perspective it's a bitter pill, but that was the risk inherent in obtaining Forsberg for a play-off push. At least they were able to win back their first round pick for a couple of pieces they were going to lose for nothing this summer anyways.
From a Calgary perspective, this trade means two things: 1.) Timonen's erasure from the UFA lists decreases the supply of good blueliners in the summer, meaning the demand for the likes of Hammer and Stuart probably just jumped with the concurrent jump in their price-tag as well. Not good. 2.) Hartnell, whom I considered one of the top candidates to fill the 2nd line RWer hole is out of play. Walker and Johnson, the two other guys I suggested awhile back, are still available, but they certainly aren't players of Hartnell's quality.
Speaking of the Flames, word from the radio is Sutter has signed Brent Krahn, Carsen Germyn and Warren Peters to new contracts. The Krahn signing is fairly surprising to me, especially with all the burgeoning goalie prospects Calgary has lined up behind him. My guess is McElhinney is tabbed to make the leap to the big this season and Krahn is being kept around as a veteran presence for the farm. The same sentiment applies to both Germyn and Peters as well: good AHL who can provide leadership and stability for the kids down in Quad Cities.
The Sens decision to boot Muckler is rather baffling considering the level of success the organization has enjoyed during his reign. This may be, however, a move with an eye to the future since Muckler ain't no spring chicken...it's also been suggested elsewhere that The Senators wanted to retain the services of Bryan Murray, who potentially could have been coaxed to another Franchise with the promise of becoming a GM. All that in view, here's the real question to consider: would Muckler have been fired had the Senators won the cup this year? I'm guessing, no.
Timonen and Hartnell for (Nashville's) first round draft pick - talk about a ballsy move by a rookie GM, Holmgren is definitely making his presence felt in Philly. He's effectively turned a hobbled-former-superstar in Forsberg into Hartnell, Timonen, Parent and Upshall. Regardless if you think the resultant salary figures for Scotty and Kimmo are inflated (they are - 25.2M for and 37.8M for 6 years, respectively) that's still mighty impressive. From a Nashville perspective it's a bitter pill, but that was the risk inherent in obtaining Forsberg for a play-off push. At least they were able to win back their first round pick for a couple of pieces they were going to lose for nothing this summer anyways.
From a Calgary perspective, this trade means two things: 1.) Timonen's erasure from the UFA lists decreases the supply of good blueliners in the summer, meaning the demand for the likes of Hammer and Stuart probably just jumped with the concurrent jump in their price-tag as well. Not good. 2.) Hartnell, whom I considered one of the top candidates to fill the 2nd line RWer hole is out of play. Walker and Johnson, the two other guys I suggested awhile back, are still available, but they certainly aren't players of Hartnell's quality.
Speaking of the Flames, word from the radio is Sutter has signed Brent Krahn, Carsen Germyn and Warren Peters to new contracts. The Krahn signing is fairly surprising to me, especially with all the burgeoning goalie prospects Calgary has lined up behind him. My guess is McElhinney is tabbed to make the leap to the big this season and Krahn is being kept around as a veteran presence for the farm. The same sentiment applies to both Germyn and Peters as well: good AHL who can provide leadership and stability for the kids down in Quad Cities.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Gauging Reaction
The variety of reactions to the Keenan hiring are diverse among bloggers and press pundits alike. Duncan is ruled primarily by disgust. Kyle, Matt and I are of the "Yay!...I think..." mindset. Reactions on messageboards range from "love it!" to "NOOOOOOOO!"
Even the "pros" in the press are having a hard time agreeing as well.
George Johnson from the Calgary Herald thinks the move smells of nepotism, desperation and scapegoating.
"He is the perfect solution to take our team to the next level,'' former protege Darryl Sutter gushed at Thursday's media conference (conveniently forgetting Keenan hasn't taken any team to any discernible level since 1994).
"Mike and Jimmy (Playfair) and myself, together we hope to do something remarkable for our organization.''
Sutter's sugar-tinted nostalgia aside, this gamble is large.
Johnson has some salient points, but they tend to be clouded by his penchant for excusing Playfair's failures to the point of skewing reality.
But, despite the rather delusional belief around the city limits, the Flames are only a serviceable team buoyed by a superstar power forward and an other-worldly goaltender. Sorry, people, to burst your bubble.
I dealt with this hokum back in April when the Flames were bounced from the play-offs. I think the argument bears repeating in light of Johnson's re-assertion that Calgary "just wasn't that good".
1.) The "delusional belief" that the Flames were a potential cup contender wasn't limited to the city limits at the onset of last season. THN, Sports Illustrated and most other hockey prognosticators fingered Calgary to be the favorites of the NW division. Hell, most Oilers bloggers and avowed enemies to the Flames grudgingly admitted Calgary would likely be a top 5 team in the Western Conference. To smear the reasonable expectation that the Flames would be a strong team as some sort of homer induced hysteria is dishonest.
2.) The Calgary Flames are no longer a 2 player team. Calgary was the first club in the league to have four 70 point players last year. Aside from Anaheim, the Flames probably had the most enviable top 4 defencemen in the WC last year with Hamrlik, Phaneuf, Stuart and Regehr. Alex Tanguay was an elite forward in terms of ES production last year. As was Juice, in terms of PP production. Had Johnson written this about the 03/04 Flames, it would be accurate. However, applying it to the 06/07 club is disingenuous and just plain wrong.
As you might guess, Johnson thinks the move is a bad one. He contends that Keenan is a bull in a china shop and has the potential to pretty much ruin the Franchise.
On the other side of the coin, we have the gushing of TSN analyst Bob McKenzie:
Keenan has an outstanding hockey team in Calgary with outstanding pieces to put together. I think it's a great move.
Notice that McKenzie considers the Flames "outstanding". Hmmm...does he summer in Calgary George?
Of course, then there is the always sensible Eric Duhatschek who seems to straddle the fence between optimism and pessimism, although his piece does tends to higlight the potential pitfalls of Iron Mike's upcoming reign:
As a general rule of thumb, the 57-year-old Keenan generally favours older, more experienced players. The Flames' willingness to give him an eighth coaching assignment in the NHL, in a year when Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff and others are in the final years of their contracts, suggests there won't be a whole lot of experimenting or building for the future.
And if things don't go Calgary's way in 2007-08, the foundation of the organization could collapse upon itself, with players flocking toward the exits.
It's interesting to see the pendulum of opinion swing so wildly in and around the hockey community. Oilers fans are laughing their heads off, convinced Keenan is basically the Flames death-knell. Some Flames fans are kicking chairs in anger and others are jumping for joy. Even the published punditry are polarized on this issue. The one certainty heading into next year, it seems, is the high-risk, high-reward nature of this gamble: either the Flames will experience wild success or near total destruction. Myself, I like to think that the former is more probable even though I can't entirely discount the latter as completely impossible.
Even the "pros" in the press are having a hard time agreeing as well.
George Johnson from the Calgary Herald thinks the move smells of nepotism, desperation and scapegoating.
"He is the perfect solution to take our team to the next level,'' former protege Darryl Sutter gushed at Thursday's media conference (conveniently forgetting Keenan hasn't taken any team to any discernible level since 1994).
"Mike and Jimmy (Playfair) and myself, together we hope to do something remarkable for our organization.''
Sutter's sugar-tinted nostalgia aside, this gamble is large.
Johnson has some salient points, but they tend to be clouded by his penchant for excusing Playfair's failures to the point of skewing reality.
But, despite the rather delusional belief around the city limits, the Flames are only a serviceable team buoyed by a superstar power forward and an other-worldly goaltender. Sorry, people, to burst your bubble.
I dealt with this hokum back in April when the Flames were bounced from the play-offs. I think the argument bears repeating in light of Johnson's re-assertion that Calgary "just wasn't that good".
1.) The "delusional belief" that the Flames were a potential cup contender wasn't limited to the city limits at the onset of last season. THN, Sports Illustrated and most other hockey prognosticators fingered Calgary to be the favorites of the NW division. Hell, most Oilers bloggers and avowed enemies to the Flames grudgingly admitted Calgary would likely be a top 5 team in the Western Conference. To smear the reasonable expectation that the Flames would be a strong team as some sort of homer induced hysteria is dishonest.
2.) The Calgary Flames are no longer a 2 player team. Calgary was the first club in the league to have four 70 point players last year. Aside from Anaheim, the Flames probably had the most enviable top 4 defencemen in the WC last year with Hamrlik, Phaneuf, Stuart and Regehr. Alex Tanguay was an elite forward in terms of ES production last year. As was Juice, in terms of PP production. Had Johnson written this about the 03/04 Flames, it would be accurate. However, applying it to the 06/07 club is disingenuous and just plain wrong.
As you might guess, Johnson thinks the move is a bad one. He contends that Keenan is a bull in a china shop and has the potential to pretty much ruin the Franchise.
On the other side of the coin, we have the gushing of TSN analyst Bob McKenzie:
Keenan has an outstanding hockey team in Calgary with outstanding pieces to put together. I think it's a great move.
Notice that McKenzie considers the Flames "outstanding". Hmmm...does he summer in Calgary George?
Of course, then there is the always sensible Eric Duhatschek who seems to straddle the fence between optimism and pessimism, although his piece does tends to higlight the potential pitfalls of Iron Mike's upcoming reign:
As a general rule of thumb, the 57-year-old Keenan generally favours older, more experienced players. The Flames' willingness to give him an eighth coaching assignment in the NHL, in a year when Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff and others are in the final years of their contracts, suggests there won't be a whole lot of experimenting or building for the future.
And if things don't go Calgary's way in 2007-08, the foundation of the organization could collapse upon itself, with players flocking toward the exits.
It's interesting to see the pendulum of opinion swing so wildly in and around the hockey community. Oilers fans are laughing their heads off, convinced Keenan is basically the Flames death-knell. Some Flames fans are kicking chairs in anger and others are jumping for joy. Even the published punditry are polarized on this issue. The one certainty heading into next year, it seems, is the high-risk, high-reward nature of this gamble: either the Flames will experience wild success or near total destruction. Myself, I like to think that the former is more probable even though I can't entirely discount the latter as completely impossible.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Farewell Playfair
So it looks like the Keenan hiring is all but a sure thing. Talk around the water-cooler today is that the Flames will make an announcement during an afternoon press conference today.
There are a number of issues to be dealt with concerning this rather startling turn of events. First I'd like to say I'm somewhat embarrassed I didn't see this coming: during his tenure as the Flames GM, Sutter has proven he likes to make sudden moves out of left field (Tanguay trade, Conroy trade, Stuart trade) and he tends to target guys that have a "Sutter connection". Think Nilson, Huselius, Kiprusoff and Friesen. With all that in mind, and considering Sutter was previously an assistant coach to Keenan back in his Blackhawk days, this move shouldn't actually be that surprising.
Course, many of us thought the (rather divisive) issue of Playfair as coach had been largely settled. Not through any direct information yielded from the organization, but more through the "no news is good news" rationale. I was personally certain for about 2 weeks after the first round humiliation that Playfair would be promptly drawn and quartered and the team would go about looking for his replacement poste haste.
My condemnation of Playfair is not a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointing round 1 loss. I was loudly questioning his abilities as far back as February. And the same issues I was harping on then - questionable roster decisions, terrible road performance, lack of consistency, lack of cohesion - proved to be the team's undoing in the post-season. In fact, not only were the aforementioned failings still evident come April, they were magnified and exploited by a comparable roster and a superior coach.
I wrote the above in a round one series review piece back in April. I think the best thing about this turn of events is the vindication I feel as a Playfair doubter. Upon the season's disappointing conclusion, Flames fans were split neatly down the center when it came to Playfair's performance and future as the head coach. Some pointed to the Flames increased offensive output, great home record and 40 win season as evidence of Playfair's ability. Others, like myself, saw a team that was inconsistent (besides being consistently awful on the road) and barely made the play-offs, despite boasting a roster that was considered a Stanley Cup contender before Nervous Jimmy got his sweaty little hands on it. Being soundly outplayed in the post-season by Detroit was the final, most resounding indictment of his coaching in my estimation.
I think two things truly doomed ol' Canaryshirt: the team's "bell-curve" fashion of success during his reign and the player-to-GM exit interviews.
By bell-curve, I mean The Flames went from very bad-to-bad-to-good-to-great-to-bad-to-very-bad again as the season progressed. The team peaked sometime in mid January and then sank headlong in the morass ever after. Even with the firming up of the roster with the acquisitions of Conroy and Stuart in February, Playfair couldn't seem to evoke a consistent, cohesive effort from his troops down the stretch or in the post-season. This was a portent of ill-tidings for Jimmy because it didn't suggest continual improvement: had the Flames ended with the similar record that was gathered through a different slope of success, a straight line of bad to good to very good, one may have reasonably extrapolated potential for success next year. However, as noted in the quote above, the Flames were downright terrible in April and during their first round series ejection at the hands of the Red Wings. The team got worse as the year wore on and they folded completely when the going got tough. Considering the roster of veterans, past-winners and a handful of genuine Stars and Superstars, it find it sensible to look past the players to the man behind the bench for answers. Further, with next season being marked by contract years for Iginla, Langkow, Kipper, Regehr and Huselius, the organization can hardly afford to grant Playfair the time and space to adequately "find himself" as the bench boss. With the lack of demonstrable improvement which would have enabled Sutter to project a decent chance of success under Playfair in the near future, I think the GM's hand was forced on this matter.
Secondly, and this is just speculation, but something in me thinks some Player/coach issues came to light during the man-to-man talks Sutter held at the conclusion of 06/07. It's no secret guys like Amonte and Friesen weren't all that happy under Playfair's rule. In addition, player management was one of things that irked me about Nervous Jimmy: he seemed to wield the "discipline stick" in a near arbitrary fashion. A similar mistake committed by two different players would yield vastly different punishments. Some vets seemed to to have the run of the bench while rookies and younger player were held to task for even nominal missteps. Rhett Warrener was prefered over Mark Giordano, even though the former was frequently injured to the point of being ineffectual...
etc. etc. All that, combined with his deer-in-the-headlights demeanor on the bench may have eroded the players confidence and respect in Playfair. Add to the fact that he used to be "good cop" under Sutter in the dressing room and it's probably sensible to infer that the boys didn't take "Sutter lite" very seriously.
And so enter "Iron Mike" Keenan. Captain Hook. Keenan has a decent resume if you throw out his time in Florida. And Vancouver I guess. He's gone to the finals a number of times (once with Sutter in Chicago) and won a cup with the Rangers. He's known for his abrasive attitude and hard-ass approach when it comes to dealing with players. He's also known to have a fairly brief shelf-life thanks to the aforementioned proclivities. This suggests that 1.) Sutter thinks the players need to be kicked in the ass (ie; need someone they will be forced to respect) and 2.) Sutter thinks this team can win NOW. As mentioned, the Flames have one more year with all of Iginla, Kipper and Regehr. Making a strong play for next season makes sense.
I've slept on it and I'm still undecided as to whether Keenan is the right choice. I haven't really seen the fruits of his labor for years thanks to his banishment to the South East. In addition, he hasn't really won anything in a long-time either. Further, Kristian Huselius struggled mightily under Keenan's rule in Florida - now that he's a significant piece of the Flames puzzle, will he be given the same treatment by Keenan a second time? How will Lombo respond to Keenan's "tough love" approach? On the one hand, Iron Mike does look like the kind of coach the team needed last season: someone with a powerful will and presence that could fill Sutter's void in the dressing room. There are questions as to whether Keenan still has it in him to guide a team to victory anymore, however. I'm also unsure as to whether his domineering personality will bring the team in-line or simply cause an even greater dissolution of the dressing room.
For his part, Juice has already gone on record in Sweden saying he isn't too worried about playing under Keenan again. Course, his tune may change pretty quickly if Iron Mike starts screaming at him on the bench and reducing his ice-time to minimal levels. I can only hope this is not the case come October and beyond.
In the end, I am cautiously optimistic about the change. I didn't like Playfair as a coach and was dreading another season wasted under his guidance. With Keenan, there are a lot of question marks, but I think there's a greater probability of success. Playfair had clearly lost the dressing room by the end of the year and I'm not sure my fanship could have survived another season of Canaryshirt's chin-twiddling and lip chewing. In fact, part of me is looking forward to Keenan erupting in anger the first time the team plays like hung-over Frat boys on the road. It'll be a welcome change for me and, I think, a needed change for the players.
PS - It sounds like Playfair will be demoted back to his previous position as assistant coach rather than released outright. Confirmation will likely come during the anticipated press conference. I think that's the right move as well.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Things Just Got Very, Very Interesting...
If this report proves accurate, it looks like Nervous Jimmy is out and Iron Mike is in...
Reaction and such tomorrow. I'm just too stunned right now.
Reaction and such tomorrow. I'm just too stunned right now.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
06/07 Champions - Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
Congratulations to the Anaheim Ducks and their fans. Also, congratulations to Chris Pronger who has likely driven a number of Oiler fans to vodka and voodoo dolls. As the Sasquatch capped his betrayal with a Championship yesterday, I realized this has no doubt been the WORST season in Oilers history. Hehehe!
It's interesting that the Senators were so easily defeated. After railroading all the competition in the East, Ottawa looked like Babes versus Lions in the final against the Ducks. Hell, they were only able to muster 13 shots last night, despite facing the prospect of elimination. To be fair, though, I think both of these clubs will be contenders again next season. There was no Cinderella at this Ball.
Anyways, Congrats again to the Ducks, Carlyle (an excellent young coach) and that loudmouth, Brian Burke - he may have a reprehensible personality, but there's no denying he's done an excellent job in Southern California. And finally, Congrats to Earl Sleek, one of the best bloggers out there. Enjoy Sleek!
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
And Now For Something Completely Different
Should I list this under Flames blogs or other Blogs on the right?
Monday, June 04, 2007
Regarding AJ Thelen
TSN reported recently that the Minnesota Wild have forfeited their rights to the former first rounder by failing to sign him to an entry level contract. The linked article suggests Thelen will now be a free agent and that the Calgary Flames have an interest in signing him.
Some points of interest:
1.) It makes me wonder why Thelen would be a FA and not just re-enter the draft. I'm not familiar with the current CBA's fine print on such matters, but it seems to me the latter situation would make more sense. Should that occur, it'll be interesting to see where he get's re-drafted.
2.) Why was Minnesota willing to pass on Thelen in the fist place? Assuming the deal wasn't scuttled by the kid's simple refusal to sign with the Wild (who does that besides Lindros?) it really does look like the Minny organization soured considerably on Thelen as a prospect. Considering his rather mediocre performance in the WHL since the '03 draft, that actually make some sense. Last year, Thelen played as an overager and managed just 8 goals, 21 points and a +7 rating which is nothing that screams "NHL potential". For comparison purposes, let's consider recently signed Flame prospect (undrafted) defenseman Brad Cole: like Thelen, Cole was a 21 year old last year. Unlike Thelen, he scored 16 goals and 41 points while Captaining the Saskatoon Blades (an inferior team to Thelen's Vancouver Giants). That's an 8 goal, 20 point difference. And Thelen wasn't even alternate Captain on the Giants. Hmmm...
Course, what we don't know here is the qualitative stuff: why has Thelen's performance fallen so far off the map since being chosen? Does he have mental issues - one of those guys with all the tools but no toolbox? Was he simply projected too high for his actual skill-level? Hard to say.
3.) The Flames have a couple notable prospects in their farm system now: Pelech, Baldwin, Ramholt and Richie Regehr. Would Thelen thrive in an AHL system battling for top 4 ice?
Signing a former first rounder for nothing sure sounds attractive, but I would be tempted to look this gift-horse in the mouth. On one hand, it's probably never a bad idea to have as many blueliner prospects as possible. On the other hand, something smells off about this guy and it makes me think that any cash thrown his way will likely prove to be money wasted. The Minnesota Wild apparently thought so as well.
Some points of interest:
1.) It makes me wonder why Thelen would be a FA and not just re-enter the draft. I'm not familiar with the current CBA's fine print on such matters, but it seems to me the latter situation would make more sense. Should that occur, it'll be interesting to see where he get's re-drafted.
2.) Why was Minnesota willing to pass on Thelen in the fist place? Assuming the deal wasn't scuttled by the kid's simple refusal to sign with the Wild (who does that besides Lindros?) it really does look like the Minny organization soured considerably on Thelen as a prospect. Considering his rather mediocre performance in the WHL since the '03 draft, that actually make some sense. Last year, Thelen played as an overager and managed just 8 goals, 21 points and a +7 rating which is nothing that screams "NHL potential". For comparison purposes, let's consider recently signed Flame prospect (undrafted) defenseman Brad Cole: like Thelen, Cole was a 21 year old last year. Unlike Thelen, he scored 16 goals and 41 points while Captaining the Saskatoon Blades (an inferior team to Thelen's Vancouver Giants). That's an 8 goal, 20 point difference. And Thelen wasn't even alternate Captain on the Giants. Hmmm...
Course, what we don't know here is the qualitative stuff: why has Thelen's performance fallen so far off the map since being chosen? Does he have mental issues - one of those guys with all the tools but no toolbox? Was he simply projected too high for his actual skill-level? Hard to say.
3.) The Flames have a couple notable prospects in their farm system now: Pelech, Baldwin, Ramholt and Richie Regehr. Would Thelen thrive in an AHL system battling for top 4 ice?
Signing a former first rounder for nothing sure sounds attractive, but I would be tempted to look this gift-horse in the mouth. On one hand, it's probably never a bad idea to have as many blueliner prospects as possible. On the other hand, something smells off about this guy and it makes me think that any cash thrown his way will likely prove to be money wasted. The Minnesota Wild apparently thought so as well.
Friday, June 01, 2007
Flames Announce Re-Signings
FINALLY the Lombardi deal is being reported as official. TSN didn't release financial terms, so I'm going to assume the 1.8M/year number is the right one for now. Yay!
Surprisingly, it seems Sutter has inked Marcus Nilson to a new 2 year deal as well. Not sure I'm on board with this move, seeing as Nilson struggled all season to be in any way useful to the team. To my eyes he was frequently one of the worst players on the club and going into the off-season his contributions looked entirely replaceable through a rookie promotion (Prust, Taratukhin). What I don't know here is the salary figure and the degree to which Nilson's knee issues hindered his play. If Sutter was able to grab Nilson at a discount relative to his last contract (1.368M/year) AND Nilson is able to attain a level of play resembling his first season in Calgary, then this signing should work out. However, if Marcus looks anything like he did last year in 07/08, Sutter has only wasted cap space and a roster spot.
Surprisingly, it seems Sutter has inked Marcus Nilson to a new 2 year deal as well. Not sure I'm on board with this move, seeing as Nilson struggled all season to be in any way useful to the team. To my eyes he was frequently one of the worst players on the club and going into the off-season his contributions looked entirely replaceable through a rookie promotion (Prust, Taratukhin). What I don't know here is the salary figure and the degree to which Nilson's knee issues hindered his play. If Sutter was able to grab Nilson at a discount relative to his last contract (1.368M/year) AND Nilson is able to attain a level of play resembling his first season in Calgary, then this signing should work out. However, if Marcus looks anything like he did last year in 07/08, Sutter has only wasted cap space and a roster spot.
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