Colby Cosh has a fantastic little "thought experiment" over at his blog which beggars the question: how important are (Edmonton Oiler's) hockey scouts?
Basically, the parameters of the experiment, as defined by Cosh, are as follows-
Imagine you're an Oilers fan who inherits a time machine from his wacky scientist uncle, only to find out that the damn thing actually works. Naturally, instead of going back to kill Hitler in 1933 or anything like that, you decide to return to the mid-'90s and arrange the violent demise of Oilers scouting director Barry Fraser and his staff. Having created this terrible crisis you are asked to rectify it with the tools available, but instead of going out and hiring a bunch of ex-jocks to replenish the lost personnel, you decide to hire a little old retired lady at $10 an hour.
This plump little pumpkin of a woman knows literally nothing about hockey, but she's your new Scouting Director. Your instructions to her are to attend the NHL draft with the two big lists of North American and European skaters as ranked by the league's Central Scouting Service; cross off names as they're announced by other teams; and when that nice Mr. Bettman calls her up to the stage for the team's first draft choice, she is to read out the highest-ranked name not yet crossed off on either list.
The results, as you may or may not guess, are surprising (or not, depending on your opinion of Oilers scouting). Makes one wonder if the wisdom of crowds is the way to go when it comes to drafting. Consensus of independent 3rd parties doesn't necessarily replace the skills of a trusted scout, but it can certainly eliminate the bias' that may exist in said individual.
It'd be interesting to carry out a similar experiment with previous Flames draft choices, particularly those during the dreaded "Young Guns" era. Shudder.
Thanks for a great post, Colby.
