With the draft over and unrestricted free agency rapidly approaching, I think it's a good time to revisit the Flames needs/wants list with an eye to what might be available out there come July 1st.
Defencemen:
With the acquisition of Aucoin (and banishment of Zyuzin), Sutter only has one more hole left to fill on the back-end. Thanks to some pre-July deals, guys like Timonen, Rivet and Markov are no longer options, unfortunately. So what's left?
Brian Rafalski - Not overly physical, the fleet-footed Rafalski is almost always good for 20 minutes a night and 45 points a season. Had a career year in terms of points in 06/07 and will likely be one of the most sought after blueliners now that Timonen is gone. Rafalski would probably be a decent compliment to Regehr (a la Jordon Leopold), but I doubt the Flames will win this sweepstakes.
Brad Stuart - Word is Stuart will be headed to West Coast this summer, possibly back to the San Jose Sharks. I liked the mobility and physicality Stuart brought to the Flames during his short stint, but he was more or less a void when it came to the offensive zone. He complimented Regehr pretty well, but I'm not sure he'll be worth the 5M or so contract he'll be commanding. I think Stuart has peaked in his current manifestation as a decent top-four rearguard who is capable but not elite in any one area.
Scott Hannan is familiar to Sutter which puts him a few steps ahead of most of the other candidates by virtue of Darryl's tendency to stick with players he knows. Hannan led the Sharks in terms of ES and SH ice-time last year, meaning he can likely play the tough minutes against the heavy hitters. In fact, according to Dejardins, Hannan did indeed play the "hardest minutes" out of all of SJ's defenders last year. He's not terribly useful in the offensive zone (career high = 24 points), but that's not overly important for a shut-down defencemen. In addition, his unimpressive offensive numbers may render him more affordable, which is actually a nice ancillary benefit. Overall, I expect the Flames to make a big-time push to sign Scotty next week.
Darryl Sydor isn't getting any younger, but he's still a capable player. Last season with the Stars, Sydor averaged 20 minutes a night, much of it at ES (14:31) and SH (3:01). He ended the year an unimpressive -4, but that had a lot to do with the fact that the Stars didn't score a lot of goals (Boucher and Daley were the only Stars defencemen above water at +2). Sydor would likely be a relative bargain (2.5M?) thanks to his age and the concurrent risk of diminishing returns and could prove to be a useful mentor for Dion Phaneuf. If the Flames can't land Hannan, I'd like to see them take a run at Sydor, provided he isn't looking for anything too long term.
Marek Zidlicky isn't a pending UFA but is an intriguing possibility now that Nashville's in full on "fire sale" mode. After managing 53 points and 49 points in his first two seasons, respectively, Zidlicky experienced a significant step backwards last year, stats-wise (4-26-30 in 72 GP), despite the fact he garnered an average of four and half minutes per game on the PP. He played the least amount of any regular Predator defender at SH (21:14 all year) and he's not exactly cheap (3.350M cap hit, contract till 09/10), perhaps making him more of a lemon than a diamond in the rough. I think the only way I'd favor acquiring Zidlicky would be a straight-up swap for Rhett Warrener. And since the Preds are looking to shed salary, it's doubtful that that kind of deal would ever come to pass...
Wingers:
Two of the 3 RWers I suggested as potential future Flames back in May have been removed from the market (Hartnell and Walker). The lone remaining guy from that list, Mike Johnson, would likely be affordable but less than ideal fit for the 2nd line, top 6 kind of vacancy the Flames have. Who else is there?
Dainius Zubrus is a big player who has the tools to be a scoring winger, although last year was the first time he ever cracked the 60 point barrier. He's probably going to command something between 4 and 5M per year and it's debatable whether he'll prove to be worth a long-term, big dollar commitment. At 28, one has to wonder if Zubrus' 60 point season is a sign of things to come or simply a aberrant "contract" season. If it proves to be the latter, his contract will become a bit of an anchor for whoever lands him. I don't think he'll be a Flame any time soon.
Ryan Smyth to Calgary rumors have been resistant to extinction for whatever reason. Personally, I just don't see it happening, although a Huselius-Langkow-Smyth line has a nice ring to it (not to mention the delicious bleating and wailing such a situation would evoke from the long-suffering Oilers faithful), there are some serious barriers to Smyth ever donning the Flaming C:
Smyth is going to be one of the most pursued UFA on the market and he's not going to come cheap. He's never cracked the 70 point threshold and will likely be looking for a long-term commitment from whoever signs him. I don't know about anyone else, but a 35 year-old 60 point player eating up $5M+ in cap space a few seasons down the road doesn't sit too well with me. Especially with the pending budget crunch after next season. On the plus side, he's a proven 30 goal scorer and a blood-and-guts team player, so I don't think I'd complain too loudly should the improbable happen. I still have considerable doubts, however.
Mike Johnson I discussed previously. He's a good PK, 40 point guy who can play against tougher competition without being overwhelmed. I consider him a "last resort" kind of option.
It's safe to say Paul Kariya won't be re-signed by the Preds, although Im guessing his price will be a bit above what the Flames will be looking at. Kariya is one of the most accomplished point-getting wingers on the market and will be looking for something above his previous 4.5M/year deal.
Personally, I haven't been impressed with Kariya's play the last few seasons, despite his decent numbers. He looks to be slowly but surely drifting away from the impact player he once was en route to becoming a 2nd tier support guy that can only excel against softer competition. In the post-season against the Sharks, Kariya was frequently one of the most ineffective Predators on the ice. He managed just 2 points in 5 games and ended up -4.
All told, I think the Flames will pass on Kariya. He's going to be pricey and he's on the downslope of his career.
Ales Kotalik is another potential "salary-dump" acquisition. Word out of Buffalo is the Sabres want to rid themselves of Kotalik's 2.333M cap hit in order to free up the dollars to sign Drury or Briere (or both). The big right winger has a hard and heavy shot and can produce on the PP. He's a two-time 20 goal scorer who struggled last season thanks to some inconsistency, the Sabre's depth and an injury. His major problem is a lack of defensive awareness that makes him a liability at ES against tougher competition. Although getting a potential 20 goal, 60 point player for prospects is attractive (don't forget the Sabres and Flames have been trading partners in the past), one has to wonder if the inconsistent Kotalik would flourish under Iron Mike's tyrannical rule.
Hard to say, although I for one wouldn't mind the gamble. He would add an element to the Flames PP and would be a nice complement to Huselius' puck distributing skills on the 2nd line. The Flames top unit of Iginla/Tanguay/[center] (Lombo?) will likely face the opposition's best players, meaning Kotalik could probably be sheltered at ES, thereby reducing the impact of his (lack of) defensive acumen. Plus, his contract isn't that onerous in terms of dollars or length (2.33M/year until 08/09) and probably represents better value than what can be had on the open market. These factors make him palatable budget-wise and easily movable if he doesn't work out. I say it's worth a shot, depending on what the Sabres demand in return.
Anyways, that's my Flames UFA-season primer. I proceeded with the assumption that a top 6 winger and a top 4 defender are Sutter's priorities, although there are some other, perhaps less pressing issues to consider (bottom 6 depth, back-up goaltender, what to do with Warrener's burden of a contract).
On a semi-related note, there have been whisperings of an Iginla contract extension in the works. It was reported on the radio this morning that Don Meehan (Iggy's agent) has confirmed that talks are in progress and that there will likely be an announcement shortly after July 1st. I really, really hope this is true...especially since it would help avoid a Lowe/Smyth trade deadline type debacle.
