Huzzah! And Boooo!

The best news coming out of last night, aside from the 5-4 win over the Sharks of course, was the suggestion that Dion Phaneuf is close to signing a new contract extension. I wouldn't take a "sources say" rumor very seriously, except TSN tends to get this stuff right (I believe they scooped the Keenan and CuJo stories as well).

I assume it's good news because, given Sutter's prior work with Regehr, Iginla and Kiprusoff, it implies a relatively cheap, long-term deal is on the horizon. What's cheap? I'd say anything 6M or under per year (Matt agrees). Once the actual numbers are revealed it will clarify the Flames cap position going forward and make the fates of Damond Langkow and Kristian Huselius a little more predictable (noticed I didn't include Alex Tanguay?).

The talking heads at TSN also went on to resuscitate the old "Flames need a #1 center for Iginla" meme during the intermission last night. Forsberg, Sundin and, of course, Jokinen were the names tossed around.

Look...every team in the league could use one of those guys to some degree. They're great players. But I dont see why the Flames are unique in that position nor why it would be considered an urgent need...

Calgary is amongst the top 10 offensive teams in the league. Jarome Iginla, the last 8 games notwithstanding, is having a career year without the likes of Forsberg or Sundin playing with him. This type of theorizing was fine when the Calgary couldn't score and Iggy was "Jarmoeing" his way to a 60 point season. But none of that is true anymore, and hasn't been for a couple of seasons. The Flames are hip deep in centers as it is (Lombardi, Boyd, Langkow, Primeau, Yelle) and can score pretty regularly. What about that screams "FLAMES NEED A FIRST LINE CENTER"?

Do they want one? Perhaps, like just about everyone else. But need? Nah. A top 4 defender, on the other hand...

Sharks Preview plus 25% more rambling

Sharks in town tonight, the second game of a double-header for them. Normally, I'd say that would be an advantage for the Flames, but the Oilers went down like mewling kittens last night so I doubt that SJ will be in any way fatigued.

Actually, since the Flames have been off for more than a week, the fact that the Sharks have played recently is decidedly disadvantageous: practices aren't games, rust, timing etc. Also, this is the Sharks we're talking about; a team that routinely schools the Flames in their own barn.

Since Im not too confident about the Flames chances tonight, I'll bounce off of yesterday's post and take a long view at the remainder of the season...

1.) Assuming for the moment that 95 points will be the post-season threshold, the Flames need 37 points in their final 33 games, or roughly a 17-13-3 record to make it. Assuming again that Calgary would prefer NOT to meet Detroit in the first round, anything above that should be the goal: 19-10-4, for instance, would breach the 100 point barrier and assure a more favorable first round match-up.

2.) Calgary has managed to be a pretty capable 5on5 team this year. They've outscored their opponents by double digits at ES thus far, which, considering Kippers mediocre year and the vast amount of minuses populating the bottom end of the roster, is pretty impressive. A trade deadline acquisition and some roster alchemy (ie; keep Lombardi with Yelle) might propel the ES figure further into the black...

what seems to be holding the Flames back from being a consistently excellent club is their special teams both of which are worse than ordinary. The PK has improved since the first couple dreadful months, but still languishes near the bottom of the league (81.0%, 21st). In addition, the PP has been steadily falling in efficiency for awhile now (Iginla's slump has really hurt in this regard) and is also down in the bottom 3rd of the league (16.7%, 20th). The latter fact is a headscratcher given that the Flames have scored the 8th most ES goals in the NHL (95). Intuitively, a team that can score 5on5 should be able to score 5on4, but that hasn't happened for Keenan's Flames this year. I dont know if it has to do with personnel (is there a worse 2nd PP unit in the entire league?), coaching (it's said that Keenan almost never practices the PP) or luck (Dion Phaneuf's shooting percentage is down more than 4% relative to his career average - that translates to more than 6 lost goals over the 163 shots he's taken already). Whatever it is, a marked upswing with the man advantage would go a long way to improving the Flames fortunes.

3.) Trade deadline acquisitions. Another top 6 forward could maybe help the PP, though I think Im starting to see a top 4 defender as the more pressing need. Here's the Flames defense corps:

Sarich - Regehr
Eriksson - Phaneuf
Aucoin - Hale
Warrener

Here they are again, except in terms of Qual of Comp and (EV+/-).

0.04 (+4), 0.04 (+13)
-0.01 (-4), 0.01 (+9)
-0.01 (+12), -0.02 (+3)
-0.09 (+1)

I know Eriksson's nickname is Bubba, but I'd say that "Sore Thumb" is probably more appropriate. Aucoin has faced similar opposition this year, with a lesser partner a lot of the time, and is +16 better than Eriksson at ES. To my eye, Keenan needs to leave Adrian with Dion for the remainder of the year and play an Eriksson/Hale or Warrener duo 10 minutes a night OR Sutter needs to go after another Brad Stuart type (hopefully one with a less detrimental price-tag attached this time). May I suggest pending UFAs Mark Eaton (0.06, +2) or Michal Rozsival (0.03, -1) or Marek Malik (0.07, +5)?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyways, I guess a prediction is in order. As I said, Im not optimistic about tonight. 4-2 Sharks. Ehrhoff, Thornton, Pavleski and Cheechoo for SJ. Lombardi and Tanguay for the Flames.

The Final 30

We're emerging from the January doldrums and heading into the final drive for the play-offs. Observant Flames fans will remember this is just about the time the wheels started to come off for the team last year, en route to a skin-of-the-teeth berth into the post season and a thorough bitch-slapping by the Red Wings in the first round. That doesn't seem to be the club's plot arch this year, though there's still a lot of hockey to be played.

Calgary currently sits 2nd in the NW division and 6th in Western conference with 58 points and 33 games left to play. The upcoming schedule includes a lot of inter-divisional play, especially in March and April:

Jan 30 -
Sharks

Feb -
Stars
Oilers
Coyotes
Blackhawks
Oilers
Sharks
Kings
Ducks
Coyotes
Stars
Red Wings
Wild
Avalanche
Ducks

March -
Coyotes
Blue Jackets
Preds
Blues
Capitals
Thrashers
Blackhawks
Blue Jackets
Avalanche
Wild
Avalanche
Canucks
Oilers
Canucks

April -
Oilers
Wild
Canucks

I've highlighted teams that are currently in a play-off spot in red. Of the remaining 33 games, nearly half (16) are against non-play-off opponents, which is the good news. Thirteen are also against divisional opponents, including the final 9 matches of the year. That may prove to be a pivotal stretch of games, depending on how things shake out the next few weeks. Even if the Flames have secured a play-off spot by that time, a bad run could mean the difference between finishing 3rd in the conference or 8th, the latter position all but guaranteeing a date with the merciless Juggernaut that is the Detroit Red Wings. That's a fate I think the boys would hope to avoid this time around.

And just to up the ridiculous...

It sure is interesting being a Flames fan this year. Not only because of the Keenan hiring, the Iginla domination or the odd mix of outstanding and subpar play from the team. There's also the seemingly unending attempts to add or delete players to and from the Calgary roster by the media which have reached new heights (and plumbed new depths) this year.

There's been supposition about Sundin, Jokinen, Tanguay and now, Darcy Tucker. That's right...Darcy Tucker. So says TSN (channeling the Toronto Star) anyways:

The Toronto Star suggests that the Calgary Flames have interest in Maple Leafs disturber Darcy Tucker, who does have a no-trade clause.

Yup, the NTC is the impediment here. Forget the fact that Tucker has all of 11 points in 43 games so far this year, is signed at 3.0M/year till the 10/11 season (when he'll turn 36) and the Flames have a impending budget crunch on the horizon. The real question is...will Darcy waive his NTC to go to Calgary?

I think there needs to be a "ridiculous Flame trade rumor" pool. Place your bets, what will be the next absurd notion to surface in the MSM (Eklund doesn't count)? Jason Allison to un-retire? Bobby Holik for Matt Lombardi? Mark Bell and Wade Belak for Phaneuf??

One and Only

For those Flames fans who might be interested in real hockey rather than the skills competition today, the QC Flames/Toronto Marlies game is available on The Score at 2pm Calgary time. It's the only time this year the farm squad will be on television, so take it when you can get it. Curtis McElhinney has been putting up good numbers since being sent back down and Grant Stevenson continues to climb the AHL scoring chart. Also, this represents a rare opportunity to see just how bad Kris Chucko is (still). I also plan to keep on an eye on Van Der Gulik, Prust and Matt Pelech as much as possible (Ramholt's a lost cause at this point I think).

Prediction - I know next to nothing about the Marlies or the AHL level of competition in general so this is pure bias. Flames 5, Marlies 2. Stevenson (2), Kolanos, Germyn and Prust for QC. Errr...Justin Pogge (2) for the Marlies (?).

Go baby Flames.

Gretzky would be proud.

Not since the Great One's appearance on Saturday Night Live all those years ago has there been such striking evidence that hockey is indeed much easier than acting.

Make sure to watch more than once.

(Found via Calgarypuck.com)

Tales of Interest

With an 8 day break descending on the Flames I guess it's a good time to discuss the various and sundry.

- Sutter, probably tiring of the press harassing one his best players, told everyone to STFU about trading Tanguay:

"I was in Montreal, Boston and New Jersey scouting last week because we don't play those teams often, so some idiot in the media assumes we're trading Alex Tanguay to Montreal.

"Honest to God, there's about 20 of you guys who cover us really well and about five others who are complete idiots who don't know a thing about it...

"I say Alex Tanguay is one of the top players in the league and you think 'He's just saying that so he can trade him.' If I say he's a bad player, it's because I can't get rid of him."

And that should be that.

- Eric Nystrom got send back to the QC last night, partially because the Flames have 23 healthy players in the line-up and partially because he was really struggling to compete before he got injured. Until someone else gets injured or booted out of town, expect him to remain there.

- The good news about Nystrom in QC means no more kid line. Matt takes a swipe at this issue in his post today...it's something both of us have been hammering at for awhile now. Expect Matthew Lombardi to suddenly look much more capable now that he's playing with NHL caliber players.

- Keenan began the game with a Warrener/Phaneuf pairing last night instead what I thought would be the more prudent duo (Aucoin/Phaneuf). Sure enough, it only took a few minutes for Rhett to blow a routine play and cause a goal against for Iron Mike to see the light. Aucoin, whom I thought looked like a 4M turd in the month October, has really turned things around and was playing pretty well on the 3rd pairing with Hale. I think he's the best option the Flames have to play Dion (right now), as the two of them looked a lot steadier than the long-standing Eriksson/Phaneuf coupling (hmmm...wonder why?). I can only HOPE Keenan sticks with it once Anders returns from his shoulder injury.

- There hasn't been a lot of good news coming out the farm club this year. A lot of the guys who showed promise last season - Van Der Gulik, Prust, Ramholt - have taken one or two steps back this year. Kris Chucko is still a non-entity, even at the AHL level, and Pelech is still years away from making an impact (if ever). The lone bright spot seems to be late summer signee Grant Stevenson, who leads the club in all significant offensive categories with 22 goals and 47 points in 44 GP. He recently scored 4 goals in a single game and is currently 6th in terms of AHL point-getters.

Of course, Stevenson has NHL experience and is one of the older guys on the team so it follows that he'd be one of bigger contributors. Still, one wonders if his play will eventually warrant a call-up at some point in the future? The preponderance of extra bodies says "no", but injuries and trades do happen...

- The Flames head into the break with a positive GD and some glimmer of an effective Kipper and actual, honest-to-god players beyond the first line. The only onion in the ointment recently has been the play of Jarome Iginla. He's goalless in 7, which is his longest slump in two seasons, and he's looked decidedly ordinary for the last week or so at least. If he's injured or tired, I hope the rest does him good. If not, he really needs to drink some more Mr.Hyde formula and start to kick ass again. If Calgary can combine December Jarome/offense with January Kipper/defense, then we might have something here. Easier said than done, I know.

- Is anyone actually going to watch the All-star game? How many of the starters dropped out now? Even the players don't seem to care about it.

Minny @ Calgary Pregame

I've been both sick and busy recently, slowing my usual posting pace down to a crawl. Apologies.

Anyways, Wild and Flames duke it out for first place in the division tonight (however briefly the placing will last). Minnesota is coming off a 4-2 victory over the Canucks from last night, a game in which Minny was outshot 40-26. Meaning they should be plenty tired for the match tonight. Which is good.

Sounds like Owen Nolan will is back in tonight, with Anders Eriksson drawing the injured straw (shoulder). Warrener will draw in for Anders, probably bumping Aucoin up with Phaneuf on the 2nd pairing. Nolan was practicing with Lombo recently, but who knows where he lands in actuality. Nystrom remains on IR because the Flames are full to the brim with players. Who gets the coming demotion folks? Primeau? Nilson? Nystrom himself??

This is the second game of a long 7 game home-stand and the last one before the all-star break for the Flames. Apparently the team's stated goal is to be in first place heading into all-star weekend. If so, make it so.

Prediction - Flames 3, Wild 1. Iginla finally busts out of his slump with a hat trick. Burns for the Wild.

Go Flames.

Monday Musings

Bit late for it, but I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on the Kings/Flames game from Friday night.

I've kinda gotten away from habitually doing post-game pieces, but a couple of things about the last victory jumped out at me.

Firstly, Keenan managed a mean bench that night. He had the match-ups down cold the entire time. Significantly, it looked to me like the Conroy/Tanguay/Moss trio was seeing the toughest competition while Iginla was being fed the minnows. I was favorably impressed.

Speaking of Iginla, I thought he struggled all night despite seeing the softer match-ups. He's currently mired in a 5 game goalless slump and seems to be fighting the puck whenever it's on his stick. He lost a lot of battles along the boards and committed a couple egregious give-aways, including the stunningly awful turn-over in his own end that led to the Kings only goal. Thankfully, his teammates picked up the slack (first time for everything) and scored the convincing win anyways.

In contrast, Kipper had an outstanding game. He made all the stops he should have and several improbable ones to boot. That might be the closest he's gotten to "Classic Kipper" this season.

David Moss looks better now than he did before his injury for some reason. He's generating chances in front of the net and isn't a liability in his own end. Does Nolan get dropped to the 3rd line when he returns as a result? I think that would that would certainly help the Lombardi/Boyd tandem to keep their heads above water.

Odd man out Langkow?

thoughts on the victory over the Kings later today or tomorrow. For now, I want to draw attention to some thought-provking points made by frequent BofA commenter Ngthagg from this thread.

He argues, rather convincingly, that Damond Langkow should be the guy to head out of town at the deadline. Here's a taste:

1) We have a lot of breadth at center. Conroy, Langkow, Lombardi, Yelle, Primeau, Boyd. None of them are especially injury prone.

2) We have some depth at center, especially from the perspective that we aren't going to have more than two scoring lines this season. Lombardi is the most talented player on his line, which is bad for a player of his age. He will certainly benefit by moving up a spot...

Check it out. Recommended.

Kings in Kalgary Preview

Short and Sweet...

Kings in town. Have won 3 in a row. Laberbera looking good. Cammellari still hurt. Worst team in the league.

Flames need points badly. Played well against the Wild. Iginla should score. Moss in for Nolan. Joseph not in net.

Potential lines according to "Inside the Flames":

Iggy line.
Tanguay - Conroy - Moss
Primeau - Lombardi - Boyd (ugh)
Smith - Yelle - Godard (double ugh)

Nystrom, Nolan - hurt
Warrener - slow
Nilson - pariah

Prediction - Flames 4, Kings 2. Iginla (2), TANGUAY and Phaneuf for Calgary. Kopitar and Handzus for LA.

Go Flames.

It's okay Alex. At least someone down here likes you.

With the news that a couple shady agents of the Montreal Canadiens have been in attendance at the last two Flames games, anxiety over Calgary's impending budget crunch in the summer of '08 has reached a fever pitch on messageboards and around water coolers recently. That seems a pretty massive causal leap (trade spec-->budget crisis), but it really isn't, given that the object of the speculation is Alex Tanguay.

The Flames salary crunch is admittedly dire - Calgary has just 12 players signed for next year with a cap hit of over 38M. That leaves around 16-18M to sign Huselius (5M), Langkow (5M) and Phaneuf (6M+) (or their replacements) with the additional need to replace some of the other departing free agents (Conroy, Nolan, Yelle) and a couple other plugs.

As such, the primary reason any Flames fan can imagine Sutter trading Tanguay is to free up cap space for the off-season. Tanguay's so-so counting numbers this season and 5M cap hit make him an obvious target. Here's my problem with that kind of thinking:

Tanguay is demonstrably the 2nd best forward on this team. Without question, he's an elite player. No one out scores the competition like Tanguay on the Flames excepting Jarome Iginla. Tanguay has also expanded his repertoire of impressive skills by becoming a decent penalty killer this year. He makes whoever he plays with better and has proven to be one of the best ES producers in the league.

The problem with getting rid of Tanguay is you leave a huge, gaping hole in the Flames top 6 forwards. Keep in mind, Tanguay isn't just a point-getter: he's a difference maker. He does things that add (+) to a team's goal differential. Huselius doesn't replace Tanguay's contributions (and I love Huselius). Neither does Langkow. And who wants to bet that BOTH of those guys will be $5M players next year? Trading Tanguay to sign Juice or Langkow is robing Peter to pay Paul. It get's you nowhere (unless both can be signed for something approaching his cap hit...which is, let's face it, extremely unlikely).

So, IF Sutter is to trade Tanguay he has to:

Acquire players that can replace his contributions to the team in one form or another (say - an up and coming forward AND top a 4 defensemen at the least) WHILE ensuring less of a cap hit in the summer (the point of all this is freeing up cap space, after all). Keep in mind, this is a "just okay" squad with Alex Tanguay. Without him, or at least a reasonable facsimile, this is a much worse (ie; no play-offs) team.

Granting these stipulations, then, sure, trade Tanguay. If you can get him to waive his no trade clause and convince another squad (Montreal I guess) to give up a couple of relatively cheap but decently performing young assests (Higgins and Komisarek), then , great...get 'er done. Anything short of that (see: anything involving Ryder, who should be available for much less than Tanguay) then you're making a mistake. I've mentioned it here in the comments and elsewhere that Sutter needs to find a way to trim the fat from this roster through whatever means necessary (and there's a lot of fat), before sacrificing his best players. Trade, package, demote, buy-out, waive the guys that don't live up to their cap hits. Aucoin, Warrener, Eriksson, Primeau, Nilson, off the top of my head. Make the roster lean and only then start dealing key pieces if you must. But not before.

EDIT - Matt Chimes in.

The Airing of Grievances.

I Got a lot of problems with this team!

Yes, Im gonna kick the dog while it's down. I know, I know...I complain a lot ANYWAYS, but on the heels of a terrible stretch of losses against non-play-off opposition, it seems like the best time for a more thorough expulsion of frustration.

- Warrener, Nilson and Primeau were the healthy scratches last night. Pour yourself a stiff drink and then add up their salaries.

- Why is Eric Godard in the line-up? He hasn't fought in over a month. And that's his primary - some would say only - skill. He can't skate, pass or shoot. Can you remember the last time he tallied a single point? Hint: he only has one all year. In fact, the last time he got on the scoresheet at all was against Florida on December 11th. He was assessed a two minute minor. Since then? His stats sheet reads like this...

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

etc.

Pointless. Both literally and figuratively.

- Anders Eriksson.

- In the 2nd intermission last night, Martin Erat was heard to comment that the Flames defense was too slow to keep up with the Predators forwards. Keep in mind that Rhett Warrener wasn't even playing. The Flames blueline costs about 14M under the cap this year, with Dion Phaneuf accounting for just about 800k of that number. With the impending raises for Regehr and (probably?) Phaneuf, the exact same crew could cost upwards of 22M next year.

- Keenan and the Kid Line Fascination. I just don't get it. Matt from Battle of Alberta said yesterday "don't run a kid line against Nashville...Trotz will take advantage", and guess what? With 25 year old rookie Nystrom out, Keenan replaced him 26 year old sophomore David Moss. The predictable result was poor Lombardi and company skating against Arnott, Radulov and Dumont at ES all night. In comments after the game, Radio personality Rob Kerr said something to the effect of "Dustin Boyd really needs to improve his board work, especially when trying to get the puck out in his own zone." My response is...NO FUCKING SHIT. Show me a 21 year old rookie who's been converted form his natural position and playing against the other team's top line that DOESN'T struggle at that. Heck, even with the cards stacked against them, that line had a couple of decent shifts that ended in scoring chances (and Moss shooting them wide).

- Lombardi's struggling right now...but, he's just not being put in a position to succeed (see above). Im all for the "sink or swim" mentality, but it isn't a fair test of abilities when you tie a couple of weights to the guy's ankles. He's starting to look mighty expendable thanks to his performance under these circumstances and someone's going to come along and offer Sutter a potential fix to one of his glaring problems and it'll be tough to resist. I hope he manages to resist the urge and hangs onto Lombardi, but I'm starting to have serious doubts.

As such, does anyone else have the uneasy feeling that Lombardi will be Kobasewed (or Ferenced) out of town near the deadline? I bet the Blue Jackets GM Howson is trying to scheme a way to pry Lombo out of Calgary. Howson no doubt saw a lot of Lombardi when he was with the Oilers and he would probably like re-unite Lombo with Rick Nash (a potent pairing from the World Championships last summer). The BJ's are pretty weak up the middle and stand to lose two of their older centermen to free agency in the off-season. Eklund, you saw that "rumor" here first (E3).

- Flames are nearly half way through the season. Their elite goalie doesn't have a shut-out, they have a negative GD and bad special teams. They are 4th in a 5 team division and 8th in the conference, despite boasting a $50M pay-roll. They have almost no scoring outside of their first line, which is primarily buoyed by one of the best wingers in the league. This is the very face of mediocrity.

- I wondered aloud a few weeks ago if the Flames would become "sellers" at the deadline assuming an 8th or 9th placing in the conference. I think that would be the smart move, given the impending budget crunch and the attractive soon-to-be UFA's on the roster (Huselius, Langkow) the team will be unlikely to afford to re-sign. I think that would be the right move, but I don't think it's one open to Darryl Sutter. He's been given a lot of money and a mandate to "win now" by his superiors. The Stuart/Ference trade, the promotion/demotion of Playfair, the hiring of Keenan, the locking up of key players, the signing of vets to plug roster holes, the spending to the hilt...that all screams "go for it" to me. Therefore, I see the play-offs as a "must" for this management regime and it wouldn't surprise me if Darryl does whatever is necessary to push this team over the hump and into the post season. Even if it means another first round ouster at the hands of the Red Wings and/or hanging onto assets that will bolt for nothing in the summer. I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong on this front, because next year could be a whole lot uglier than this one if not.

Flames @ Preds Preview

Calgary down in the sunny Southern States tonight. They've lost 3 in a row to bottom barrel opponents and need to get back on the horse sooner rather than later.

Good news is, Calgary's beaten the Preds 3 times in a row after being their virtual prison bitch for a couple of consecutive seasons. However, given that Nashville is easily the toughest opponent the Flames have faced since San Jose (2-3-1 in that span) they certainly can't afford to take them lightly.

In his preview, Matt suggests Keenan experiment with a new third line tonight, since Trotz likes to run his scoring unit (Arnott, Radulov and Dumont) out against weaker sisters (ie: Lombardi, Boyd). I certainly agree with him, though I doubt Keenan will alter his strategy now: Iron Mike has failed to waver from his "kid" line since it's inception, despite 5 or 6 weeks of the young'ins being demonstrably murdered night in/night out. Hopefully I'm wrong though and Keenan cobbles together something a little more able to withstand the rough going.

In addition I'd also like to see Iginla find his range again and the PP to be decidedly less flaccid (connected issues, I know). The top liners are still generating shots and chances, but the puck hasn't been bouncing right during this little slump. The puck has to start going (back) in at some point, right?

The biggest problem from the last couple contests has been the defensive coverage though. It was simply abysmal against the Islanders and Oilers, neither of whom represents the best the league has to offer in terms of offensive prowess. Cory Sarich in particular had a tough 2 game stretch where he gave the puck away and lost checks with equal abandon. Anders Eriksson is doing his damnedest to prove that a guy can only play above his head for so long (is there a worst player on the Flames for keeping the puck in at the offensive blueline?) and Rhett Warrener is still susceptible to being beaten to the outside...by 3rd line players (see him versus against Ethan Moreau last game for further proof).

Something Ferraro pointed out repeatedly during the game against Edmonton was Calgary's penchant for giving the puck away just inside their own zone. I don't know if it was an artifact of a "bad game" or an easily stuffed break-out (slow, winding board clears to wingers who appear to be a little too high in the zone), but it killed the Flames transition game on Sunday...

Ahh well. Chin up, it'll be a better day tomorrow, etc.

Prediction - Flames 3, Predators 2. Iginla (X2) and Phaneuf for Calgary. Radulov and Zidlicky for Nashville.

Go Flames!

The Forechecker has your Preds coverage.

UPDATE - According to Inside the Flames, David Moss was seen skating in Nashville and may actually play tonight! Seems a little out of the blue and surprising given the amount of time he's been out (I was expecting a conditioning stint of some sort), but that's potentially good news. Also, Adrian Aucoin was seen on the ice and may partake as well.

Where does Moss land if he does return? Beside Lombo, bumping Boyd to the 4th line? Maybe he'll start out there himself so he can ease back into action?

Flaming CuJo...

According to radio reports, Curtis Joseph has agreed to be a Calgary Flame. No word on contract figures, which I assume will be a 1 year/$1M or less deal.

CuJo will be a welcome addition, if my assumptions about his contract prove correct (another Primeau or Nilson type deal and I might just stop cheering for this team). He provides the club with a decent insurance policy if Kipper goes down and can probably be counted on to play in relief a little more often. Sucks for Curtis McElhinney, however, who was never really given much of chance. I expect he'll be returned to Quad Cities.

Next up! A top-6 RWer. Or a top-4 defender. Hmmm...wasn't I saying the exact same thing last year around this time?

UPDATE - After some suggestion of a last minute offer by the Rangers, it appears that CuJo is now officially a Flame.

Contract Guesses? When does he start his first game?

Battle of Alberta Preview

Plenty of reasons to be nervous as a Flames fan heading into the latest round of the BofA. Calgary has dropped 2 straight games to bottom feeder opposition and have looked mighty vulnerable in the process. the big guns (Iginla, Huselius) were shut out in both games and Kipper has looked as mortal as ever. Possibly the only positive to be taken from the last two losses was the veritable explosion of scoring from the supporting cast, particularly in the match against the Islanders.

On the other hand, the Oilers have strung together a few wins recently and haven't looked too shabby doing it. Garon has usurped Roloson as the starter up in the Chuck and is providing the club with some better than average goaltending. The Oil aren't exactly deadly offense wise and their blueline still has some obvious flaws, but...they're probably playing as well as can be expected from a team with the that kind of roster. And that's been good enough to best the Flames in the New Year, as evidenced by the Coyotes and Islanders matches.

Roster notes - Nilson draws in for the 'still injured' Eric Nystrom, while Wayne Primeau has been excused due to a personal matter. No word on Aucoin, so I'll assume he's still nursing a sore groin.

Inside the Flames has the expected lines here. It'll be interesting to see if Lombardi fares better or worse with Nilson on his wing. This could be Marcus big (and only) chance to prove himself useful and work his way back into the regular rotation. If he can make the 3rd line less of a liability at ES, he will be a welcome addition.

Prediction - You can only shut-out Jarome for so long. 4-1 Flames. Iggy (X2), Phaneuf and Boyd for Calgary. Cogliano for the Oil.

Go Flames.

Phaneuf Signs Extension!

By Chunkymoose

Meehan appeared at a public press conference earlier today, drenched in blood and wearing long, white, gore-stained robes to announce the contract extension of 2nd time all-star defenseman, Dion Phaneuf.

As per club policy, financial details were not announced but are rumoured to contain the following:

It is believed to be a $500 million 65 year extension that will carry Phaneuf through the 2072-2073 campaign. Also included are the rights of Prima Nocta to all newlywed southern Alberta women, all of the country’s green Smarties and sole rights to NHL cocaine distributorship in western Canada.

Also, as a signing bonus incentive, Phaneuf is to receive an unspecified number of fresh souls.

Meehan, after finishing chewing the gristle from the bull they had sacrificed to make the deal official, was quoted as saying “All hail thy holy offensive defenseman! His future years will yet bring prosperity, revelry and unbridled hedonism to this Hockey Mecca”.

It is believed Meehan was drunk with power.

When questioned if there was an issue with Phaneuf playing into his 87th year, Meehan responded by bending his head back unnaturally and emitting a poison gas that killed all the reporters in the room.

Also of note, once the signing was announced, Denmark imploded.

NYI @ Calgary Pregame

I don't know much about the Islanders, besides the Satan/Hunter stuff I discussed the other day. Besides that, what I do know is:

- They are the lowest scoring team in the league.
- They have a very good, if bleaguered, starting goalie in Dipietro.
- They are somehow the best team in the Eastern Conference at killing penalties (86.1%, 6th in the league).
- They are so far winless on this swing through Western Canada.

The Flames will be looking to bounce back from their embarrassing effort against the Coyotes on Tuesday night. For anyone paying close attention, the loss to Phoenix was actually the third straight poor overall effort by this team, the other two resulting in victories thanks to superhuman efforts from a few key players (Kipper and Iginla in San Jose, Iginla and Huselius in Los Angeles).

No changes to the line-up tonight, which surprises me somewhat as coaches will typically tinker with the roster after a poor performance. Nilson and Primeau are spectators again and Kipper will (surprise!) be in net (though, is there a more appropriate opponent for our under-used back-up to face than the worst offense in the league?). Adrian Aucoin is still hurt, so we'll be treated to more Eriksson on the point during the PP (and more of Warrener's glacial sprints across the ice). Nothing therefore changes about my expectations of the match - good Iginla/Huselius = win. Average Iginla/Huselius = loss. Little more can be said of Flames as they currently stand.

Enter an old, rabid dog?

According to TSN, Curtis Joseph has narrowed his suitors down to two teams: The San Jose Sharks and (get this) the Calgary Flames.

What I find surprising about this, assuming it's accurate, is that Joseph would choose to sign with teams that have viable, established starters whom he couldn't hope to usurp. Even given Kipper's struggles this year, there's little chance that Joseph would step in and be given the reigns. At best, he might hope for an injury to catapult him (temporarily) into the starters role in either market, but that's about it. Otherwise, he's a once every 5 or 10 games player. It seems unfathomable me that CuJo would come back to warm a bench, but maybe just being around for a play-off run is enough for him.

My reaction: ambivalence/apathy. I guess it would be nice to have a viable NHL caliber goalie behind Kipper, but it seems to me the Flames have bigger problems to worry about. Joesph doesn't solve the mediocre special teams, the lack of secondary scoring or the need for another top 4 defenseman. Anyways, if he indeed chooses to sign here...woop-di-doo. If not, meh.

The cap's going up next year...right?

Ovechkin signed the biggest contract in NHL history today. Thirteen years, $124M. Alex is a 21 year old burgeoning superstar who was scheduled to become a restricted free agent next year.

That latter part should sound familiar to any Flames fans out there. To put it plainly...how much does this inflate Phaneuf's asking price?

Scary.

Introducing the Candidates

The foolish trade proposals mentioned below got me thinking about what the Flames may actually attempt to do at or around the trade deadline this year.

As I've mentioned previously, the Flames most glaring need (going on 3 seasons now, I think) is a capable winger to play the right side behind Jarome Iginla. Owen Nolan, Eric Godard, David Moss and rookie Dustin Boyd represent the Flames current, sad-sack options. One is over the hill, two don't have the raw ability and one is a 21 year-old centerman.

So what are the options? Pending UFA Rwers include:

Hossa (6M)
Demitra (4.5M)
Satan (4.255M)
Ryder (2.950)
Rolston (2.432)
Lapointe (2.4M)
Dumont (2.25M)
Hunter (1.55M)
Vyborny (2.2M)

Let's start scratching off the obvious no-gos:

Hossa is a fantastic hockey player and would cost the Flames way too much to rent. Anyone acquiring Hossa should probably be doing so with a mind to re-signing him in the summer, considering the assets they'll have to give up to pry him out of Atlanta. With the impending budget crunch, that's certainly not a possibility here.

The Wild will keep Demitra around for their play-off run and wouldn't be trading him to a divisional rival anyways. Ditto Rolston.

Marty Lapointe is a role player at this point in his career. Calgary has those in spades.

David Vyborny is a soft, marginal "skill" player. He had a good year with BJ's last season but has dropped off considerably this year. I wouldn't surrender anything more than a mid-tier draft pick for him.

That leaves us with a couple of Islanders (Hunter, Satan), the previously suggested Michael Ryder and the Preds JP Dumont.

These guys currently belong to teams that are desperate to make the play-offs in order to enliven a fickle or shrinking fan base. As of right now, both clubs are on the bubble to make the post-season and will probably hang on to all of their primary assets if that remains true come the end of February, thanks to their desperate need to keep the fans interested.

With that in mind, let's assume for now that the Islanders and the Predators are out of the race come the end of February. Who should the Flames pursue?

Miro Satan -

The man with the Devils name has seemingly been around forever, but he's actually just 32. He's had a pretty dismal season so far, counting just 10 goals and 23 points. Keep in mind, however, that he plays for one of the lowest scoring clubs in the league and his 23 points are actually good for 3rd best on the Island. His ESP/60 rate is worse than ordinary (1.75), but is in the same realm as team leader Mike Comrie (1.86) and above Bill Guerin (1.68). Obviously there's some coaching and team effects conspiring to suppress offensive production in New York this year.

To his credit, Satan did manage 27 goals last year and 35 goals the year before on similarly bad NYI teams. In fact, Satan has scored 20+ goals the last nine seasons before this one, besting 30 goals 4 times. He's also a fairly good PP producer, scoring in double-digits in terms of PP goals 5 different times in his career.

One of the surprising things I discovered when looking up the Prince of Darkness' stats was his very healthy GA/60 rate for this year - 1.85. That's more than a point better than Mike Comrie (2.93), though the disparity is potentially explained by their differing levels of competition (-0.02 versus 0.04). Still, the Flames don't need someone to take on the heavy lifters - they have Jarome for that. They just need a guy that can convert Tanguay's passes and score on the PP once every so often. So while Satan hasn't been that great at the PP stuff this year (1.69 PPP/60), his history suggests he could do better with better teammates.

Trent Hunter -

Calder finalist has struggled to live up to the levels he set in his rookie campaign. After scoring 25 goals and 51 points in his inaugural season, Hunter has since never broken the 40 point mark and only once managed 20 goals again.

The best part about Hunter might be the raw package: he's big, physical and has a great shot. It's tempting to think a change of scenery and better linemates may be able to coax more out of him. It's a gamble, however, considering his rather mediocre offensive number over the last few years.

His stats from this season are fairly underwhelming. He's scored at the paltry rate of 1.27 ESP/60 at 5on5 so far. Oddly, and to his credit, it looks Hunter's been facing some of the toughest competition on the team. His Qual of Comp rating is 0.07, matched only by Mike Sillinger. This suggests that Nolan night be employing Hunter in a third line/shut-down role, which would go a long explaining his offensive struggles and relatively high GA/60 rate (2.89). Potentially the most encouraging stat, from a Flames perspective, is Hunter's 3.11 PPP/60 rate. It's not fantastic in absolute terms, but it does make him the 3rd best producer on NYI behind just Comrie and MA Bergeron.

Ironically, I'll get a chance to assess both players tomorrow as the NYI are swinging into town. I haven't had much opportunity to watch the Isles this year, so it'll be an opportunity to put observational flesh on the bare bones of the above stats.

Michael Ryder -

A shorter blurb on the elder Ryder since I've talked about him before. He seems to have worked his way back into the line-up recently, although most of his stats still look really terrible. His ESP/60 efficiency is about that of Eric Nystrom's (0.85), while his PPP/60 rate (3.53) is equally unimpressive, given his team has one of the best powerplays in the league.

Perhaps the only positives stats to look at when it comes to Mike this season is his ridiculously low shooting percentage - now 6.7%, a full 5% below his career average (which indicates a bad run of luck that will likely correct itself eventually) - and his positive CORSI figure of 2, which is actually the best on the team (only Koivu and Hamrlik are the only other Canadiens in the black by this measure).

So while the Canadiens will likely be in the thick of the play-off race come the dead-line (and therefore not in a position of selling off assets), Im sure they'll still be accepting suitors for Ryder. Since he's UFA in the summer and probably more than a little disgruntled in his current situation, it's doubtful he'll re-sign in Montreal. Might as well get something for him when you can.

Dumont -

Probably the most attractive of the "possibles", Dumont is just 29 and is having a pretty damn fine season despite the Preds struggles. He's third on the club in scoring with 16 goals and 32 points. He's also currently on a six game goal scoring streak, a feat matched only by Henrik Zetterberg this year.

Dumont has the best ESP/60 of the 4 suggested rentals, humming along at 2.41 points per hour (4th best on the team). His PP efficacy is actually a fairly disappointing 2.93 PPP/60, although that's not something Nashville excels at (24th best in the league). He's on pace to score 20+ goals for the 5th time in 6 years and while his sooting percentage is a tad high (16.8%), it's not grossly outside of his career norms. No fluke here.

Given that Dumont has become an integral part of the Preds line-up, it's unlikely he'll be dealt away. I fully expect Nashville to keep him around for their play-off push and then attempt to re-sign him long-term. But, it's nice to dream sometimes.

There are other pending UFA RWers, but they're all from the Brian Willsie, Branko Radivojevic , Trevor Letowski species of player that wouldn't be of much (read: any) use to the Flames.

The other part of the equation, of course, is the question of what the Flames would have to give up to acquire any of these guys. Any proposal that threatens Calgary's more valuable future assets (Boyd, Backlund, first round picks) or untouchables (Iginla, Phaneuf, Regehr) is a non-starter. I'll be honest here: Calgary isn't a true contender for the cup this year in my eyes. Selling the future, Atlanta or Nashville style, for a name at the deadline with the vain hope of challenging for the Holy Grail would be ill-conceived, injurious to the Franchise and ultimately fruitless.

Anyways to conclude:

- Best Option - Dumont
- Least Likely to Obtain - Dumont
- Most Available - Ryder
- Least Expensive to Acquire - Trent Hunter

And we also demand 100 BILLION DOLLARS

With the Leafs predictably sinking into nether regions of the Eastern Conference, talk has begun to surface in the media regarding the fate of captain Matts Sundin.

Some background - Sundin is 36 this year, but still an effective difference maker. He'd likely be a pure rental to anyone that acquired him. Meaning 30 regular season games plus whatever post-season success they could muster.

As a benchmark, last year the Flyers traded Peter Forsberg to the Nashville predators for 3rd liner Scottie Upshall, top defensive prospect Ryan Parent as well as first and third round draft picks.

And now the insanity - Rick Westhead has a piece in the Star this morning asking 12 hockey personalities/agents/pundits/former GMs what they would demand for a Sundin rental if they were in JFJ's shoes.

I hope you're sitting down...

Glenn Healy would offer Sundin to Ottawa for:

Andrej Meszaros, D. 22 years old. In 41 games, has 7 goals, 12 assists and has a plus-minus rating of plus-8.

Patrick Eaves, RW. 23 years old. In 20 games, has 4 goals, 4 assists.

Antoine Vermette, LW. 25 years old. In 40 games, has eight goals, 15 assists.

Two first- or second-round draft picks in 2008.

...That is, a young, top 4 defenseman, a future 2nd line center and already elite PKer, a futuer top 6 forward AND two high draft picks. From a divisional rival. Uh-huh.

Brian Lawton, player agent who is "currently looking for work as an NHL GM" says he would trade Sundin to Anaheim for:

Drew Miller, LW. 23 years old. In 25 games, has 2 goals and 3 assists.

Anaheim's first-round pick in 2009.

Anaheim's first-round pick in 2008 (acquired from Edmonton) or Bobby Ryan, C. 20 years old. In 13 games, he has 3 goals, 2 assists.

In the body of the piece, Lawton adds that the Leafs "could also ask for 27-year-old defenceman François Beauchemin, who makes $1.65 million this season."

Hahahaha! Don't quit your day job there Brian. I've seen more realistic and thoughtful GMing on fan messageboards.

But wait. It gets worse.

The last suggestion I'll highlight is from former Flames GM Craig Button. And it absolutely takes the cake. Apparently Button would trade Sundin to the Flames for:

Matthew Lombardi, C. 25 years old. In 43 games, has 9 goals, 12 assists.

Mikael Backlund, C. 18 years old. Calgary's first-round pick, 24th overall, in 2007.

Dustin Boyd, C. 21 years old. In 19 games, has 3 goals, 2 assists.

Two first-round picks in the next three years – taken at the discretion of the Leafs prior to the selection at the draft. "That would allow the Leafs the opportunity to maximize the picks." The Leafs would demand a second-round pick in the year they didn't take a first-rounder.

Read that again. That's 3 young centers (all with top 6 potential), and 2 high draft picks to be chosen "at the discretion of the Leafs". That deal would effectively gut the Calgary Flames for years. It's so heavily one-sided, I have to assume Button didn't take the exercise seriously (or was tailoring his response to the audience) because it's just so incredibly stupid. It's belly-laugh material. Can you imagine JFJ calling Sutter and making that demand? Ferguson's head would burst in response to the gravelly, mocking laughter that would emanate from the other end of the line.

Improvement Through Nothing

The Anaheim Ducks won the Stanley Cup last year for various reasons. They had capable primary (Selanne, McDonald) and secondary (Penner, Getzlaf, Kunitz, Perry) scoring, a couple Norris winners on the blueline and a Conn Smythe winner in net.

They also had (have) one of the best checking lines in hockey. Casual fans in California probably call the Moen-Pahlsson-Neidermayer combination a "third line". Those a little more hardcore probably know them as a "shut-down" line. Recently, Gabriel Desjardins gave them a new, more appropriate monkier - The "Nothing" line.

It's interesting to watch this line play because they are expectionally good at forechecking and shutting down the opposing team's offense...they are all among the league leaders in preventing the other team from scoring, this despite facing the other team's top lines every night.

On the other side of the puck, they also produce next to no goals. All three players are in the bottom 2% among scorers this season. Moen, in particular, is in the 99th percentile, league-wide, both in preventing the other team from scoring and in not scoring himself.

A capable Nothing Line like the one above can both deter and promote scoring: deter, by suppressing the opposition's best scorers below their typical scoring rates. And promote by freeing their own team's best players from playing tough competition, thereby potentially increasing their scoring rates. In addition, this strategy sequesters all the team's offensive voids onto a single line, resulting in a natural congregation of the more effective scorers on other scoring units.

I think the Flames have a burning need for a Nothing Line of their own. Despite the current winning streak, they could stand to cut back on the shots/chances/goals against. Hell, we're heading into the 2nd week of January and Kipper doesn't have a single shut-out yet! The Flames have allowed the 3rd most GA in the conference so far this year (126), less than only Edmonton and LA. And while the team has certainly improved in this category since December first, they've still allowed 45 goals during that 17 game span (2.65 GPG). That's not terrible, but it certainly isn't great which makes their results over that period even more impressive (and unlikely) (12-1-4).

That the Flames have clearly been outscoring their problems during the recent upswing masks the fact that they have virtually zero secondary offense after the primary attack. During the same span as mentioned above, Jarome Iginla (19G, 26P), Kristian Huselius (13G, 28P) and Damond Langkow (7G, 18P) managed 72 points combined. In contrast, Craig Conroy (1G, 9P), Owen Nolan (3G, 5P), Alex Tanguay (3G, 10P), Matt Lombardi (2G, 5P), Eric Nystrom (0G, 1P) and Dustin Boyd (3G, 4P) have combined for just 34 points. Huselius alone had 28 points by himself. And that's despite the fact that Conroy and Nolan spent significant time skating with guys like Huselius, Iginla or Langkow.

I've chosen to focus on that period of games specifically because it's notable that so many forwards were struggling even though the team was winning games. The contrast between those excelling (Iginla, Huselius and Langkow) and those not (everyone else) is stark and telling. It also suggests this success is probably more a transient "streak" than permanent "correction".

As per the original premise: a Flames Nothing Line. Originally postulated by myself in the now somewhat infamous "STONEHANDS" post, I surmised then (and still posit now) that a Nystrom-Conroy-Nolan troika might possibly result in the two primary effects I detailed earlier: deter scoring by suppressing the opposition's top lines and promote scoring by freeing Calgary's other lines from the tough assignments (as well as sequestering the offensive voids onto a single unit).

First, the "void" part:

Conroy, Nolan and Nystrom have a combined total 13 goals and 38 points between them in 115 games played this year (Huselius - 28 points - 17 games - just sayin'). That equates to ES scoring rates of 1.87/60, 1.47/60 and 0.86/60 for each guy respectively. Stunningly, their PP rates are even worse: Conroy's rate dips a bit, dropping to 1.62/60 while both Nolan and Nystrom have yet to tally a single goal or assist on the PP.

The point here is...none of these guys can score. If you subtract Nolan's 2 empty net goals, his ES scoring rate falls to 1.22/60. That's David Mossian type production. Dustin Boyd is more efficacious (1.56/60), and he's a 21 year old rookie with lesser linemates. Conroy leads the pack here, but he's had the benefit of playing between 3 of the best players on the team (two of whom have been the hottest players in the entire league) for a majority of the year. Even so, his rate is barely above the somewhat maligned Matthew Lombardi, he who has been saddled with two rookies at ES for the last 5 weeks or so.

Nolan and Conroy have had the benefit of the doubt through the first half of the year. Both have been amongst the top 6 for a majority of the first 40 odd games and both have convincingly proven that neither can get the job done on the score-sheet anymore. There's no overriding contextual influence oppressing their abilities here: this isn't the 05/06 Flames. Tanguay, Iginla, Huselius and Langkow...if you can't produce with those players this season, you probably can't produce...

"I so very much want this square peg to fit into this hole!" The NHL coach screeched, pounding away with furious abandon, "but it appears that the latter is just so stubbornly and unyieldingly round!"

Indeed. Look, if these guys can't score, then it makes sense to a.) give them some other role to play and b.) put them together so their offensive dampening fields stop affecting the other players.

I guess the question remains...could Nystrom/Conroy/Nolan actually be effective at the shut-down role? Both Conroy and Nolan are strong on face-offs, meaning they aren't a big risk when it comes to own-zone draws. Conroy is still fast and strong on his skates while Nolan manages to a do a lot of little things right on the ice (forecheck, dump-ins, board-work), his performance in LA aside. Nystrom has a pretty ugly stat line, but has remained in the line-up and on the team thanks to his tenacious checking and ability to block shots. He's also pretty fast and strong on his skates and has the lowest GA/60 rate short-handed of any regular penalty-killer on the team (3.05). So, it seems some of the tools are there.

The ES stats for each player are less convincing but harder to interpret.

Conroy - 2.42 GA/60
Nolan - 1.96 GA/60
Nystrom - 2.25 GA/60

Not terrible, though they certainly don't compare to the "suppressor" figures of the Moen/Pahlsson/Neidermayer trio (.97/1.83/1.28). Keep in mind, however, we're using the best checking line in the league playing in front of a superior SV% AND Chris Pronger as a point of comparison. Anyways, I dont think the Conroy/Nolan/Nystrom combo would have to be as good as the Pahlsson line - just good enough not to get killed and allow Iginla, Tanguay and whoever else to beat up on their match-ups.

Break up the Kids -

Another happy side effect of the Conroy Nothing Line would be the abolishment of the Flames "Kid" line - Boyd/Lombardi/Nystrom. The youngsters are fast and eager and rambunctious. And, together, they are getting consistently beaten up at ES. It's a tough assignment for anyone to carry a couple of NHL rookies night in and night out. It's an impossible one for a guy like Lombardi, who I really like, but still has a few steps to take before he can be considered a difference maker in his own right.

Since he's played with Boyd and Nystrom, Lombo's stats have dropped like a stone. In November, he was actually one of the better Flames for a 10 games span. He had an ES scoring rate above 2 and was a healthy +10. He's now down 1.81 ESP/60 and is a negative player (-1). His linemates predictably have just 5 points since December 1st, with Nystrom managing a single assist in that 17 game span.

I've looked at that combination a couple different ways and I can't decipher what Keenan hopes to get out of it. Scoring? No - Lombardi is the lone "vet" and has only broken the 40 point plateau once. As for Nystrom, he didn't even manage to get 40 points at the AHL level. And while Boyd has scoring potential in him, he's still very young and very green - a 4th line+PP type assignment would suit him best. Softest possible competition is the more likely way to get numbers out of Boyd right now.

So, it must be checking then? Well, no - two rookies and a smallish center (who's better known for scoring off the rush than anything else) aren't going to challenge any competent scoring line most nights. In fact, the only thing the Lombardi unit resembles right now is a big, enticing "come get some!" sign to opposing coaches (particularly on the road). I've been watching this groups CORSI figures since they've been assembled, and they are consistently in the red most games. Near the onset of their seasons, both Boyd and Lombardi were positive players by this measure (Boyd did it while playing against shlubs with Yelle and Godard) but have fallen underwater since being paired (-7.5, -5.0 respectively).

Basically, as it stands, the Flames have two guys who can't score needlessly bunging up the scoring units (Nolan and Conroy), with a line of kids that can neither score nor defend getting the hell beat out of them behind them. Now maybe Keenan is waiting for Moss to return (though he's just a younger, slightly faster Nolan as far as production is concerned) or maybe he doesn't have any faith in Lombardi in the top 6. But I can't see how the current configuration helps the team or a number of the players succeed. The bottom 6 is currently a wasteland of suck and there's little chance of the 4th liners getting any better. The 3rd line, the kid line, is doomed to fail. They don't have enough experience or strength to properly check anyone and they don't have the offense to outscore anyone. Something has to change, because I dont see Iginla and Huselius putting up this torrid pace forever.

Huselius - Langkow/Lombardi - Iginla
Tanguay - Langkow/Lombardi - ? (Boyd)
Nystrom - Conroy - Nolan
Smith - Yelle - Godard

(Nilson, Moss)

Throw out the Conroy and/or Iginla lines against the toughest competition and save the softer underbelly for Tanguay's unit. The Conroy trio doesn't have to worry about scoring (since they can't) and Lombardi is in a better position to exploit his abilities. Boyd is tentatively penciled into the 2nd RWer position, though I still think that's a hole Sutter needs to plug. As mentioned, 4th liner minutes with Yelle plus some PP time is the optimal situation for Boyd right now.

Does this make sense to anybody else or am I a madman screaming obscenities at a parking meter? This all reads right in the echo chamber in my head, but maybe I've been squinting at the computer screen too long...

A Slump Cometh

By ChunkyMoose

I was reminded of what Mr. Keenan had said about slumps, and have paired it with the Flames’ performance of late. He said that teams do not fall into, nor jump out of slumps. Instead slumps resemble more of a ‘slide’.

Teams who are in a slump start to do good things right near the end of them, but unfortunately still manage to lose games.

Teams who are about to slump start doing things wrong, but still manage to win.

After viewing the results (I am not as wealthy and fortunate as MG, so I couldn’t watch the game) of the LAK game, I worry that our single pronged attack (would that make it a stick?) will start to stutter and our NW divisional 1st place Calgary Flames will begin to slide.

If only Nolan could hit that 40 point plateau like we all know he should (speak for yourself - ed.).

On the bright side, it looks like the Flames Faithful has full belief in our squad, and has managed to vote Mr. Jarome Iginla and Mr. Dion Phaneuf to the West All-star Team starters. Congratulations!

As for tonight’s match-up, our road-weary road warriors are set to lock horns with the Phoenix Coyotes. A team that has also strung together a decent number of wins (4) and a team that has a decent road record (13-8-0). Mix the strong (did I just go blind?) Coyotes’ road record and strong play of late with a return from a tiring road trip (the San Jose airport debacle and back to back home & away games) and it doesn’t look promising.

Add in the K-factor that I have to travel 20 minutes to watch the game at Mr. Unlucky’s house (MG) and we have a recipe for a loss.

3-1 Coyotes.

Barf.

A Goalie site for the Poolies

My friend and sometimes contributor Chunkymoose pointed out a site to me today (because I was complaining to him about trying to suss out which goalies to start in my various fantasy pools every day).

Goaliepost combs the interweb for information and then reports who is starting for which team. There's also specific team links that provide targeted articles and such. Very cool. Especially if you compete in half a dozen managed hockey pools like me.

Win over Kings is Flames in a Nutshell

Calgary finished their 2 game California roadtrip by beating the Kings 6-4 on Saturday night. After watching the game (which was quite the up and down affair), it struck me that almost everything about this current iteration of the Calgary Flames - their strengths and weaknesses - was encapsulated in this single contest. To whit:

Unbalanced attack -

Jarome Iginla and Kristian Huselius were in on 3 of the Flames goals, including the game-tying and game winning markers in the 3rd period. Since being united in December, Iggy and Juice have accounted for a huge percentage of the Flames scoring. Like 85% huge. If you throw Langkow into the mix (who has skated with the first line, on and off), secondary offensive production shrinks from "minimal" to "negligible". This represents both a strength and a weakness for the Flames. Strength, because Iginla and Huselius are playing so well they are singlehandedly carrying the club on their backs and out-scoring the Flames other problem. Weakness, because a cold streak or an injury to one of them and this team becomes awfully beatable all of a sudden. And by "cold-streak", I mean, "not absolutely red hot". Even if Jarome/Huselius were to drop down to merely above average levels, the Flames would likely have problems winning games like the one in question.

It wasn't just the raw production (goals, assists) concentrated around the top line on Saturday night, it was the balance of shots and chances as well. Aside from Iginla and Huselius, every other Flames forward unit was basically out-chanced by their Kings counterparts according to the Corsi numbers (note Owen Nolan's particularly terrible -15, a figure he managed in just 13 minutes of ES ice-time. That's stunningly terrible for a vet like Nolan. I thought while watching that game that it was one of his worst of the year. These numbers kinda back that feeling up). To be fair to the team, it was their 4th game in 6 nights and their 2nd on the road. Fatigue was likely a factor. To be fair to the analysis, they were playing the worst team in the NHL. Without Iginla's herculean efforts and Huselius' wizardry on the PP in the 3rd, Calgary loses that game. Probably by a 2 goal margin. Going forward, the Flames will either have to find an internal solution to the top heavy production or acquire someone that can make a difference. Relying on a couple of guys (as great as they are this year) to outscore your problems night in and night out is a poor gamble long-term.

Craig Conroy -

Conroy is still a great skater and he still does some little things well: He's relatively strong on the puck, a decent PKer and one of the best face-off guys on the team. The problem is his hands and his head are a step or two behind when it comes to reading the play and finishing offensive opportunities. As such, my continued complaints regarding Conroy aren't necessarily about him per se, but about how he's being utilized. Meaning, he SHOULD NOT BE a first-line center.

Prior to Saturday Night, Conroy had collected a couple of points centering Huselius and Iginla recently. Thing is, they were of the 2nd, "I happened to be on the ice as the same time as these other guys", species of assist. For a majority of the season, Conroy has primarily skated with a combination of Iginla, Huselius or Tanguay (all of whom are well above 2 points per hour of ES ice time) and yet has put up extremely pedestrian scoring rates (1.87 ESP/60, 1.62 PPP/60). The LA game was no different - Conroy played with Iginla and Huselius for most of the evening at ES, and somehow ended up pointless and -1 (and -2 by the Corsi numbers somehow). If you carefully arrange the letters in Craig Conroy's name (and add an h), you get the word "anchor". He's a penalty-killer and a checker. An affable locker room presence and a great interview. There isn't anyone I prefer to see taking defensive zone draws. But Craig Conroy just isn't a scoring line pivot. He should stop being used as such.

The Kipper Enigma -

Miikka made some great saves against the Kings. Fantastic, improbable saves. The problem being, he also allowed some questionable goals. The Stuart floater from the point was stoppable, although it may have been tipped. The Kopitar goal was due to a shot squeeking it's way through his pads. The Frolov goal wasn't even a scoring opportunity until Kipper flubbed a routine play behind the net . So while Kiprusoff seems to be slowly and steadily improving, the Kings game was an eloquent example of his year thus far: great goaltending mingled with horrid goaltending resulting in a mediocre overall performance. This is another area of concern if the ship isn't righted before Iggy and Juice cool off.

Useless bottom-liners -

I'll leave the struggling "kid line" (Boyd, Lombo, Nystrom) alone for now...I plan on posting something on them tomorrow. The target of this complaint is the under-performing flotsam that litters the bottom of this club's roster: The 4th line of Godard, Yelle and Smith played a combined 11 minutes on Saturday night. Their stats are happy (2 points, +3 total) because of Regehr's fluke opening tally that glanced off a King stick and happened to float over Labarbera's head into the net. Otherwise, that unit was what every 4th line has been for Calgary in every game this year: a big bag of steaming suck. They typically see the softest competition (as long as they aren't caught on the ice after an icing call) and still give up a boatload of shots and chances against.

Now, it's one thing to have a 4th line with really cheap fringe guys or some kids breaking into the league. And, given, Godard and Smith aren't exactly pricey. But the problem(s) being the guys in question won't be getting any better, the Flames probably have replacement level players in the minors AND there's more than $2M worth of cap space sitting in the press-box behind them. Sutter re-signed Primeau and Nilson ostensibly to solidify the bottom half of the roster, but they've both proven obsolete compared to Boyd, Nystrom (gee, who would have guessed that?) and even Mark Smith (not sure why, though perhaps Smith is a better scrapper, bench presence...?). The result is a 3rd line of kids being hung out to dry and a bunch of doddering or fringe vets unable to keep their heads above water below them. Not to mention, all this dead weight at the cheap end of the line-up is contributing to the complete lack of secondary scoring afflicting this team.

It'll be interesting to see what happens when Moss returns to the line-up. With Keenan obviously (and sensibly) preferring Boyd and Nystrom to Primeau and Nilson, a freshly signed vet may be in line for a waiver-wire demotion. I hope. The other potential solution is re-assigning Boyd to the farm club. At this juncture, I think Boyd has proven he can play in the NHL and it would better serve the organization to continue his development at this level. Primeau and Nilson's contributions are obviously minute and it's not like they're going to get any better. Might as well send the lame horses to the glue factory to make way for the young studs, if you get my drift.

Other observations:

- In his first game back, Rhett Warrener was predictably a step or two behind the play all night. He looked as awkward and slow as he does in all my nightmares. Warrener was playing some good hockey before he went down with injury, so it may take him awhile to get back to speed. Or, given his history, maybe that couple weeks was an aberration and he's back to being the Rhett "beat by Grier" Warrener I've lamented about so often in this space before. If the latter proves to be true, we're likely stuck with an Eriksson/Phaneuf 2nd pairing in perpetuity. And while Anders hasn't been the Zyuzin clone he was in the first couple of weeks, he and Dion don't exactly fill me with confidence at ES, especially against tougher teams. Even with Eriksson playing better, the pair still give up too many shots and chances against.

- Lombardi is struggling a lot at ES. He's still skating and drawing penalties, especially on the PK, but he's got nothing going otherwise. He spends a lot of time crossing the offensive blueline and shooting the puck at defenders shin-pads. To be fair, a lot of this has to do with his linemates - as much as I like Boyd and Nystrom and what they've brought to the team, both are still prone to rookie errors. In addition, Nystrom has almost 0 offensive ability. Not the best recipe for success . Again, more on this stuff tomorrow.

- David Hale has gotten better and better as the season's progressed. He still has all the offensive flair of a broken kitchen appliance, but the tools I saw initially when he was acquired last year have been in full evidence recently: good skating, physical presence, simple, effective game. He and Aucoin formed a pretty decent 3rd pairing before Adrian was injured (they rarely got scored on, which is all you can ask a 3rd pairing) so I think Im secure in feeling mildly encouraged by his progression.

- Jarome Iginla is playing the best hockey of his career. And that's saying a lot. He was simply amazing in the 3rd period against the Kings. The two PP goals he set-up with power moves out of the corner literally made my jaw drop. A stunning hockey player and fully deserving of the "Iggy for Hart" pieces making the rounds in the mainstream media.

Flames vs Kings Pregame

Flames in LA tonight. It's these kinds of games I hate most when the team is on a winning streak: you see, it's tougher to get up for a non-divisonal, bottom-feeder opponent. For example, it was the 14th place Chicago Blackhawks that stopped Calgary's (9 game) winning streak in it's tracks in November '05.

Anyways, for all their losing, the Kings have a pretty good looking squad. Kopitar, Cammallari, Nagy, Handzus, Calder, O'Sullivan, Frolov and Brown make for an impressive front line. The defense isn't too shabby on paper either: Blake, Visnovsky, Preissing, Stuart and Johnson. Of course, goaltending is LA's achilles heel. Laberbera has decent numbers (2.76 GAA, 0.913 SV%) while the back-ups are all abysmal (JS Aubin, Jon Quick).

LA has allowed the 2nd most goals against in the league going into this evening (135 GA) and are the worst team in the WC by 6 points (yes, even Edmonton and Phoenix are better). And that's despite winning 3 of their last 4. Ouch. They do, however, have the ability to score some goals (117 GF in 42 games) and a couple of their youngsters are dangerous every time they hit the ice (Cammalleri, Brown and Kopitar). If fatigue, complacence or mediocre goaltending afflict the Flames tonight, chances are the winning streak will come to an end.

Note - It was inevitable. Adrian Aucoin is hurt. meaning Rhett Warrener will be back in the line-up tonight. That's a bit of hit to the Flames PP, not to mention the fact that Warrener will likely be step or two behind the play given he's missed a lot action thanks to his injury. Expect Eriksson to get way too many minutes tonight (sigh). In addition, it looks like Boyd might be drawing back into the line-up at the expense of the increasing useless Wayne Primeau (anti-sigh).

If you're hankering for a view from a Kings perspective, go visit Rudy Kelly over at Battle of California.

Mickael Backlund! Bort! Bort! Bort!

I haven't said much about the WJC, partially because therealdeal has been doing an admirable job on that front, particularly from a Team Canada perspective.

Heading into the gold medal match today I did want to mention that the Flames first rounder from last summer is having a pretty decent tournament. He scored a pair of SH goals against the Danish team in a single period in the Swedes 10-1 victory and his assist on the GWG against Canada was probably one of the highlights of the tournament thus far. He also scored the overtime goal against the Russians, which, going by the announcers reactions in the video above, is the biggest, most important goal scored in Swedish ice hockey history.

I like where this is headed

Kipper stole his 3rd game of the year last night and his 2nd in recent memory. If you throw out the 5 GA abomination from the Vancouver game around the Holidays, Miikka has certainly seemed to be getting better and better as the season has progressed.

Just to make sure, I threw together a chart of Kipper's SV% through games 1 to 41. As you can see, a general upwards trend emerges. If he can continue to improve**, a lot of the Flames other problems will suddenly become a lot less important.

**Obviously the trend indicates an improvement in team play as well, as goalie stats tend to mirror the club's performance in general. However, I can safely say Kipper himself has personally improved outside of team effects based on observation: for example, the Flames were obviously out-matched last night thanks to dubious scheduling and a quality opponent. In October or November, when Kipper was struggling, they probably lose that exact same match 4-2 or 5-2.

Half-Way Half-Assed plus a Sharks Preview

I initially planned to do a voluminous "Half Way Post", but Matt's covered a lot of the bases already. Also, I've harped ceaselessly on the team's ongoing issues over the past weeks to the degree that nothing I'd say now would be new or enlightening. I will hasten to add that the 2nd quarter was a whole lot better than the first, mainly due to the ascension of Regehr and the explosive combination of Jarome Iginla and Kristian Huselius (as well as a fruitful expedition through the worst division in hockey in December). The secondary scoring (Owen Nolan has one more point than Robyn Regehr), special teams (both still worse than middling) and the play of Miikka Kiprusoff (SV% still below a mediorce .900) remain sore spots on this club and until one or all of them markedly improve, the Flames will be no better than a "good" (read: 9th-6th place finish) club.

Emerging Issues moving forward:

Is Huselius becoming indispensable? How does Sutter sign him if so?

What happens when David Moss returns from injury? Primeau and Nilson seem to have been permanently usurped by Boyd and Nystrom. Does a vet get demoted, traded?

Will Kipper EVER get his mojo back? If not, should Sutter look to move him before his big extension (and NTC) kick in?

Who should the Flames pursue to shore up the secondary scoring? The club still needs a 2nd line RWer that can produce on the PP and at least semi-regularly as ES.

If the Flames are a play-off fringe squad at the trade deadline, should they be buyers or sellers? Flames pending UFAs - Conroy, Yelle, Nolan, Langkow, Huselius, Godard, Hale. Flames potential salary dumps - Warrener, Primeau, Nilson, Tanguay, Aucoin. Flames needs - top 6 RWer, top 4 defenseman, back-up goalie (?).

Just some stuff to keep in mind as we head into the latter half of the year.

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Calgary plays the Sharks in San Jose tonight, which is actually the best place to play the Sharks these days. While they own an impressive 22-12-5 overall record, they've managed just 6 of those wins at the tank this year (in 18 games). That's an impressive and unique kind of awful, particularly since they're such an amazing road squad 16-3-2 (!). A major contributor to that disparity is likely their PK - on the road, the Sharks are the best in the league, killing over 90% of their infractions. At home, they drop all the way down to a mediocre 83.1% (16th in the league). Shades of the road Flames from last year.

Another oddity about San Jose is their relatively lackluster offense. With guys like Thornton, Michalek, Cheechoo, Marleau and Bernier, one would think that goals would come easy. As it currently stands, SJ is 22nd in the league in terms of GF (98), behind the likes of MIN, VAN, CHI and WSH. Thornton is doing well enough, scoring 13 goals and 46 points in 39 games, but the drop-off from him is a steep one: Michalek is second behind Jumbo Joe with a paltry 23 points. Patrick Marleau is having a nightmarish season as well - he's scored just 7 goals and 18 points. Adrian Aucoin, Dion Phaneuf and Craig Conroy all have more points by comparison. That's elevator shaft material. His 6.3M extension is probably looking mighty unappetizing to the guys upstairs right now. Then there's the struggles of Mr. Jonathan Cheechoo, one-time Rocket Richard trophy recipient. He currently occupies Owen Nolan territory (5 goals, 10 points in 32 games) without the excuse of debilitating age.

I had no idea the offensive problems were that big in San Jose till I looked closely at the numbers just now. That's baffling, can't-possibly-continue kind of bad. That's "the coach is in big trouble because there's no other explanation" kind of bad. The team is still winning, based on great goaltending and some pretty good defensive work (which should technically be the club's weakness, looking at that roster), but sheesh...talk about ruining a LOT of fantasy drafts.

Anyways, gross goal totals aside, I still think the Sharks look fantastic mainly because the only time I've seen them play so far was the 4-1 ass-whooping they handed the Flames way back near the start of the season. Calgary didn't have a sniff that night, although that was before the re-awakening of Regehr and the uniting of the new Flames Dynamic Duo (Karome Higgelius?). Also, it wasn't in San Jose.

Course, the main thing working in the Sharks favor is this the Flames 2nd game in 2 nights. Perhaps exhaustion will cancel out the inexplicable sucking that the home arena evokes in Sharks. Then again, hopefully not.

Go Flames

NYR @ Calgary Preview

I have a bit of an interest in tonight's opponent. Partially because I think they should be better standings-wise and partially because I have a wager with a friend of mine regarding the Atlantic division (Philly won't place higher than 3rd).

The Rangers have an excellent goalie, some top notch centermen and what should be scary looking PP. But they still languish near the bottom of the league in terms of GF (94) and are only have a GD of +3. Reasons why I think the Rangers will have a big 2nd half of the season and will likely win their division:

Henrik Lundqvist:

He's been one of the best goalies in the league since his rookie season and this year isn't an exception. He's currently amongst the top 10 in wins and GAA and in the top 20 in terms of SV%. Desjardins of behindthenet fame wrote an interesting article on ES save percentage at his blog recently that further illuminates King Henrik's contributions:

Henrik Lundqvist has allowed 41 goals on 567 shots at 5-on-5, for a 927 save percentage. However, an average goalie who faced the 567 shots from the same locations would expect to allow 58.3 goals, for an 897 save percentage. On a per-60-minute basis, Lundqvist's Goals-Against-Average is 1.90 - 0.80 goals lower than an average goalie.

According to Desjardins, Lundqvist had the second biggest differential between actual and expected save percentage in the league at the time the article was written. Now, this could mean a couple of things**...

1.) Lundqvist is going through an unsustainable hot streak (Tim Thomas was first in the league by this measure for example).
2.) Lundqvist routinely makes "big saves" on quality scoring chances.

Given his performance and pedigree, I'd say it's scenario #2.

**(this also implies that the Rangers give up their fair share of scoring chances and would be in trouble with a lesser goalie)

Shot Differential:

The Rags are the 2nd best team in the league at out-shooting their opponents behind the mighty Red Wings. The league standings by average shots for look like this:

1.) Detroit 35 SF/G, (23.4 SA/G)
2.) Carolina 32.3 SF/G (29.9 SA/G)
3.) Ottawa 31.3 SF/G (30.0 SA/G)
4.) NY Rangers 30.9 SF/G (26.2 SA/G)

and now, by goals for:

1.) Ottawa 3.54 GPG
2.) Detroit 3.42 GPG
3.) Carolina 3.05 GPG
4.) Dallas 2.95 GPG
...
25.) NY Rangers 2.41 GPG

The blueshirts have scored just 94 goals on 1207 shots so far. That's a team wide shooting percentage of about 7.8%. To put that in perspective, the Edmonton Oilers have managed 93 goals on 1012 shots - a 9.2% team SH%. A cursory glance at both rosters suggests that just ain't right.

In fact, despite boasting a roster with Jagr, Drury, Gomez, Straka and Shanahan, the Rangers have the lowest teamwide shooting efficacy in the whole league...


Out of the 30 teams, NYR is the only one with a SH% below 8. They are a full 1.8% below the league average of 9.6% and are well below a lot of teams with "lesser rosters" in terms of offensive talent (EDM, VAN, BOS, WSH). If the Rags had been scoring at the middling rate of 9.6% through the first half of the season, they would have about 116 GF at this point and a GD of +22. Meaning, they'd likely be on top of the ATL division and one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference as well. And that's just if they were shooting at the league average - and, given their roster, I think they should technically be a notch or two above it.

What does this mean? Some bad luck, some new players acclimating to their surroundings and Jagr slowing down a bit. Overall, though, I see the Rangers trending upwards. They routinely out-shoot their foes, they have an elite tender and a forward corps that is bound to bust out of the offensive doldrums eventually.

As a Flames fan, I just have to hope the rebound doesn't start tonight (although technically, I think it's started already). The Flames are still 4th in the NW division despite a solid December and will need to scrape together as many points as possible from January to April if they hope to make the post season. Calgary is 7-1-2 in their last 10. They had a 6 game winning streak and a single regulation loss last month. And despite all that, they still project to finish the year with a piddly 92 points. That's a pretty thin line between play-off berth and bust - a path that will look pretty bloody unpleasant if the Flames squeeze into the post season only to face the Detroit Red Wings in the first round again. Ugh.

Anyways, as for tonight, looks like Craig Conroy has once again cemented himself on the top line, this time with Huselius and Iginla. Here are the recent practice trios according to Lefebvre and Cruickshank:

Juice-Conroy-Iginla
Tanguay-Langkow-Nolan
Nystom-Lombardi-Boyd
Smith-Yelle-Godard

(Primeau, Nilson)

Yes, that's $2.4M worth of healthy scratch. I don't know what we're going to do with all these guys once Moss returns. Demoting some of these anchors to the farm and ridding the club of their cap-hit would be a good start though.

The 2nd scoring unit gets a bit more of a chance to actually score with Langkow on it, which works for me. Interesting thing about that line from the Canucks game - Keenan seemed to be playing them against the Sedin Twins and leaving Iggy to face Kesler and whoever he was playing with (Burrows and Ritchie I think). Maybe that was AV line-matching like a bugger, but Keenan** didn't seem too bothered to get away from the match-up if so. In not, that may mean Iron Mike's gotten away from running power vs. power.

**Bonus fact - to my eye it looked like Keenan was playing David Hale with Iginla's line that night. Sure enough, according to the H2H ice-time, Hale and Aucoin spent as much time behind Jarome as Phanuef and Eriksson at ES. Blech! Not that Kesler et al are a threat to score, but the number of times offensive zone opportunities died because the puck was fed back to Hale at the point made me more than a little annoyed.

Of course, Regehr and Sarich were matched against the Sedins, meaning they spent a lot of time behind the Langkow unit.