Tuesday, March 24, 2009

New Numbers - Seminal work

Due to some excellent work by the more math-inclined bloggers out there, new metrics such as CORSI and on-ice SV/SH% have become very important in the way I think about and analyze the game. Unfortunately, the information about these various new measures and the assumptions behind them hasn't been collated in a single place yet (as far as I know), so, unless you've been able to follow the various discussions across a number of different blogs over the last 12 months, you might not have the whole picture.

As such, I've decided to track down the most influential posts as a reference for those with questions, complaints, comments, etc.

- Zone time, Corsi and Correlation to Winning by Vic Ferrari.

- Winning and Losing you games by Vic Ferrari (individual players contributions to corsi and SV%).

- On-ice Save Percentages By Mudcrutch.

- PDO Numbers By Mudcrutch.

- Outshooting By Mudcrutch.

- Even Strength Shooting Percentage By JLikens.

There's lots of reading there and some fairly in depth math, but I think this body of work provides the basis for my assumptions about variation, randomness, percentages and the value of possession and outshooting in the NHL.

If I've missed any other seminal posts or articles, please let me know and I'll add it to the list.