With the season nearly upon, it's time to put together (another) post that will almost assuredly make me look foolish in 7 months or so. No, it's not my annual standings predictions (that's upcoming), but some gut feelings heading into the new year which may contradict the intuitions of many. Shared in no particular order:
- The Boston Bruins are going to disappoint some people. They had the lions share of the bounces last year (PDO = 102.8), they lost Phil Kessel in the off-season, their defensive depth after Chara and Wideman is questionable (Morris, Hunwick, Ference, Stuart) and, as good as he is, I can't imagine Thomas will save 94% of the shots he faces at ES this season. They're a good team and well coached, but they aren't the class of the Eastern Conference. I think they'll place middle of the pack.
- Similarly, I don't think San Jose will be all that dominant, even with the Heatley addition. Their depth at both forward and defense drops off sharply after the difference makers and they don't have the cap space to rectify anything if injuries cause things to go sideways. Like Calgary, they also have serious serious question marks in goal with the increasingly mediocre Nabokov backed-up by Thomas Greiss who has only had one stand-out season in the AHL out of three - and that was his rookie effort. Heatley and Thornton will probably get a lot of points, but the Sharks bottom two lines are going to be a black hole.
- It'll be fascinating to watch what happens in Minnesota this season under a brand new regime. Adding Havlat gives Koivu some support meaning he'll either have a quality linemate to take on the tough minutes or he'll be relieved of facing the big boys every night. Either way, the young Koivu, who led his club by a full 17 points depsite the tough assignment last season, could surprise a lot of people. In addition, new coach Todd Richards promises to implement an upbeat, offensively charged system instead of Lemaire's stifling defensive strategy.
Minnesota still has lackluster forward depth, but at least it'll be more entertaining to watch them this season. If the players take to the coach - and if Richards is competent - they could surprise some people. Especially in the NW division, where things are wide open after Calgary and Vancouver.
- A Western bottom feeder is going to move up the charts this year, but I can't decide if it'll be St. Louis or Los Angeles. The former surprised by sliding into the post-season last year, despite numerous injuries to key pieces. They also have a whole bunch of fantastic youngsters who may or may not take a step forward (Oshie, Berglund, Perron, Johnson, Backes, Polak) and a cheap but capable goaltending duo (Mason, Conklin). If Kariya, McDonald and Johnson stay healthy and a couple of the kids outperform their entry-level deals, the Blues could be better than respectable.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, might be my dark horse pick. I really like their top 9 depth:
Smyth - Kopitar - Brown
Frolov - Stoll - Williams
Prucell - Handzus - Simmonds
and they're a team that actually excelled defensively last year despite a roster full of kids (only Columbus, Detroit and San Jose allowed less shots on net) and it was only a team wide power outage at ES that killed their play-offs hopes. If guys like Kopitar, Brown, Purcell and Williams get their SH% back up within range of career norms, LA should be at least passable offensively, if not better. Goaltending is an issue, although at some point you'd think one of Quick, Ersberg or Bernier would emerge as a legit starter.
- Phoenix has a 45M payroll, no coach and no future to speak of. If anyone finishes behind them in the WC (if not the NHL) there should be a public flogging of the coach and GM behind the team in question.
- Chicago looks frightening to me. I expect them to challenge for the Conference crown, even with Hossa out till December. Three lines deep, two of the best shut-down defenders in the game and an underrated starter in Huet. With Lidstrom aging and Osgood in net, Detroit could fall to CHI in the Central.
- Anyone else think the Tampa Bay Lightening won't be terrible this year? A top six that features St. Louis, Lecavalier, Tanguay, Stamkos and Malone can't be that bad. In addition, they actually have some quality on the back-end with Ohlund, Hedman and Ranger. If Mike Smith - who put together better than solid numbers last season behind an awful squad - can stay healthy, TBay could be battling for a play-off spot.
- With Sammy Pahlsson in Columbus, Rick Nash might be freed up from facing the big boys every shift, meaning he may be in line for an even better season. Also, I can't imagine guys like Huselius and Nash (2.85 and 4.27 PPP/60 respectively) scoring at such relatively nominal rates with the man advantage again this year, even if the club failed to land a PP quarterback. A healthy Derek Brassard and a full season of Vermette should help as well. Despite all the accolades, Mason remains a question mark until he can repeat his Calder performance, although Garon should be a capable back-up. Flames fans should keep an eye on Kevin Lalande in the BJ's farm system, especially since Matt Keetley is looking more and more like a bust.
That's it for now. Full standings predictions coming once the pre-season comes to a close.
