Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Your 09-10 Predictions

Ever year I make a post this this and every year it makes me look foolish by April. And yet, that never deters me from doing it all over again the very next September...

I'll have more in depth looks at NW division elsewhere, but here's my guess for Conference Standings:

EAST -

Pittsburgh
Washington
Buffalo
Philadelphia
Carolina
Boston
Montreal
New Jersey
-----------------
New York
Toronto
Ottawa
Tampa Bay
Florida
Atlanta
New York Islanders

I know, picking the Stanley Cup champs to win the division isn't terribly ballsy, but it's hard to ignore the turn around the team experienced under Byslma last season. I think they're legit. Washington looks like the real deal to me as well, especially if Varlamov gets more starts and can give the team better goaltending than the worse-than-average fare Theodore served up last season. They will probably feast on the weak sisters in their division again as well.

Nothing else is too controversial there aside from Boston falling down the standings and Buffalo winning the NE.

The Bruins won the Conference last year on the back of some unreal percentages (both SV% and SH%) that created a whole host of simultaneous career seasons as well as the best year goaltending we've seen since Kipper broke the modern SV% record back in '04. The Bruins also lost Phil Kessel to Toronto, David Krejci had major off-season surgery and the only significant summer acquisitions were Steve Begin and the criminally overrated Derek Morris. I think they're a decent team with a good coach, but there's bound to be some regression to the mean there.

As for Buffalo, they'll benefit from the still relatively weak NE division and they were the only non-play-off club with a positive goal differential (+16) in the EC. They probably got unlucky last year and should be in line for bump up the standings - especially if BOS falls.

WEST -

Chicago
San Jose
Vancouver
Detroit
Calgary
Anaheim
Columbus
St. Louis
----------
Minnesota
Los Angeles
Edmonton
Dallas
Nashville
Colorado
Phoenix

I expect basically the same crew to make the post season again in the West with the only significant difference being Chicago un-seasting Detroit at the top of the Conference. The Red Wings are still quality, but Lidstrom isn't getting any younger, they still have Osgood as a starter and they bled too much talent this summer (Hossa, Hudler, Samuelsson) without replacing it. Addiing Bertuzzi didn't help either.

Most would make a case for San Jose over Chicago, but I like the Blackhawks depth at both forward and defense better. The Sharks have the most formidable top line no doubt, but things get real ugly real fast. The Hawks, in contrast, boast Toews, Kane, Hossa, Ladd, Sharp, Bolland, Versteeg, Madden, etc. They also have some of the best young defensemen in the game, including Duncan Keith who should have been in the running for a Norris last season in my humble opinion. If Huet can bounce back to his previous form I think the Hawks take the West.

St. Louis was as surprise to make the play-offs at all last year, but with guys like McDonald, Kariya and Johnson healthy and ready to compliment the likes of Berglund, Perron, Oshie, Backes, Tkachuk and Boyes, the Blues should be a more legitimate threat going forward. Add in a cheap but capable goaltending duo in Mason and Conklin and St. Louis is difficult to ignore.

Vancouver winning the NW was a tough one, but we'll get into that elsewhere...

Flame away folks.