Monday, January 25, 2010

Trading Price Probably Not Worth it

Elliote Friedman has an interesting take on the Price/Halak situation in Montreal this morning. His contention that the Canadiens should move Price swings on the claim that "the return would also be good for Montreal."

I doubt that.

I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: goalies make for poor trade assets. The demand for them is extremely limited. In fact, there's probably more goalies than there are starting jobs in the league. I can probably name a few teams that would be willing to gamble on Price, but I'm guessing they wouldn't bother to give up much to acquire him. A draft pick? A prospect or two? He's got a nice junior resume and his pedigree is good, but his results the last couple of years are fairly middling and his career SV% of .912 is also middle of the pack. The only time a GM will part with anything of value to acquire a goaltender is when he's fairly sure the goalie will provide an instant improvement over what he currently boasts in net.

Friedman also mentions (correctly) that Price is only 22 years old and probably has his best days ahead of him. That's an accurate assessment. But if I'm GM-X, I'd probably just stick with who I have and wait for Price to develop in Montreal and become a free agent a few years down the road. Friedman implies in his piece that Price isn't really happy in Montreal (isn't confident, onto second goalie coach, needs a fresh start). That means to me he won't be eager to re-sign there. So rather than dealing valuable pieces for an average goalie who may or may not improve, I might as well wait on the sidelines to see which way the dominoes fall.

Unless you have a very real superstar on your hands, trading goalies is a tough gig in this league. Unless the Canadiens are willing to give up on Price now for a marginal return, they probably won't be dealing him any time soon.