Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Shero Steals Ponikarovsky

Anyone who read my piece on Flames trade targets knows I rate Alex Ponikarovsky. I think he's a legit top 6 forward in the league, given the fact that all of his underlying stats are good to very good. Here's what I said about him at the time:

"Poni" is to the Maple Leafs what Rene Bourque is to the Flames - a top-notch all around forward. Ponikarovsky faces a decent level of competition, has the second best corsi rate on the team (+19/60!), the best ESP/60 rate on the club (2.27) and he can play on both the PP and PK. He's also a 6'4", 223 pound guy who can skate.

I consider Ponikarovsky the ideal candidate for the Flames to target. He's managed sterling underlying numbers for the last few seasons, is just 29 years old and is the type of guy the team could try to retain next year. In fact, he's so good it would stun me if Burke didn't have his name on a new contract come March.


This post isn't to lament the fact that the Flames missed out on Poni when they dealt Phaneuf (Sutter obviously wanted a center + a guy signed beyond this year), but rather to highlight sometimes how sometimes my personal estimation of players fails to line up with their apparent market value in the league.

First, let's establish that the return for Ponikarvosky is negligible. Luca Caputi is a 22 year old who had one big year in junior - his 20 year old season. His stats that year are eye-popping, but the fact that his results prior to that were unimpressive likely means he was a "veteran" adult playing big minutes every night against teenagers. He's had good totals in the AHL (18 and 23 goals in this first 2 seasons) but he's not a sure thing by any measure. Probably every org has a Luca Caputi or two.

Martin Skoula, on the other hand, isn't even an asset. He's pretty much finished as an NHL defender. In fact, many Penguins fans were speculating that Skoula would be put on waivers once Jordan Leopold was acquired on Monday. He played against soft competition in Pittsburgh and couldn't even hold his head above water. He's in Andrei Zyuzin territory and I'm guessing the Penguins are glad to be rid of his remaining salary.

So - two bodies, but neither of them can capably play at the NHL level. What's more surprising is the fact that this was, I assume, the best deal Burke could get for Poni. Granted he's a rental and dealing anything significant for 20 games of a single skater is almost always silly...we all know that the auction like environment of the deadline often drives up prices for whoever is available and given the fact that this isn't exactly a bumper crop this year it's fairly surprising to me that no one else stepped up to offer anything more attractive than "okay prospect, doddering vet". So, either Shero has compromising photos of Burke or Ponikarovsky wasn't really perceived as all that useful around the league.

It'll be interesting to see how he does on Crobsy's wing. Ponikarvosky has scored more than 2 ESP/60 in each of the last two seasons on a pretty marginal team.