Just an update post.
For those looking for Dustin Boyd material, I have two in-depth articles on the lad from the last few years - 2008, 2009. Here is my prediction he'd be moved at the deadline and here's my take on the trade itself.
Also, here's my promised take-down of the Steve Staios trade.
Finally, my Flames Top 20 Prospects report for Hockey's Future is up.
Showing posts with label Trade deadline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade deadline. Show all posts
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Deadline Overview
Not a great deal to talk about in terms of interesting trades today. However, my brief thoughts on some things that struck.
The Staios trade is a terrible one by just about every angle.
The Wolski trade is baffling from an Avs perspective.
I have no idea what the Oilers are doing.
The Capitals made out like bandits.
Don Maloney is an excellent GM.
There will be posts on the Staios and Wolski in the near future and we'll see if I have the time and will to comment on anything else after that.
The Staios trade is a terrible one by just about every angle.
The Wolski trade is baffling from an Avs perspective.
I have no idea what the Oilers are doing.
The Capitals made out like bandits.
Don Maloney is an excellent GM.
There will be posts on the Staios and Wolski in the near future and we'll see if I have the time and will to comment on anything else after that.
Deadline Day 2010
Christmas morning for hockey fans like me. A lot of the drama has been drained from this particular year by Sutter's pre-empting the deadline, but it'll still be interesting nonetheless.
My general thoughts will be here.
I will have feature articles on trades that effect the Flames at Flamesnation. Jean Lefebvre will be liveblogging today, and I'll likely show up in the comment section there.
I'll also appear at the M&G open thread.
As usual, I'll also be reading Jay Onrait's TSN liveblog.
My general thoughts will be here.
I will have feature articles on trades that effect the Flames at Flamesnation. Jean Lefebvre will be liveblogging today, and I'll likely show up in the comment section there.
I'll also appear at the M&G open thread.
As usual, I'll also be reading Jay Onrait's TSN liveblog.
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Shero Steals Ponikarovsky
Anyone who read my piece on Flames trade targets knows I rate Alex Ponikarovsky. I think he's a legit top 6 forward in the league, given the fact that all of his underlying stats are good to very good. Here's what I said about him at the time:
"Poni" is to the Maple Leafs what Rene Bourque is to the Flames - a top-notch all around forward. Ponikarovsky faces a decent level of competition, has the second best corsi rate on the team (+19/60!), the best ESP/60 rate on the club (2.27) and he can play on both the PP and PK. He's also a 6'4", 223 pound guy who can skate.
I consider Ponikarovsky the ideal candidate for the Flames to target. He's managed sterling underlying numbers for the last few seasons, is just 29 years old and is the type of guy the team could try to retain next year. In fact, he's so good it would stun me if Burke didn't have his name on a new contract come March.
This post isn't to lament the fact that the Flames missed out on Poni when they dealt Phaneuf (Sutter obviously wanted a center + a guy signed beyond this year), but rather to highlight sometimes how sometimes my personal estimation of players fails to line up with their apparent market value in the league.
First, let's establish that the return for Ponikarvosky is negligible. Luca Caputi is a 22 year old who had one big year in junior - his 20 year old season. His stats that year are eye-popping, but the fact that his results prior to that were unimpressive likely means he was a "veteran" adult playing big minutes every night against teenagers. He's had good totals in the AHL (18 and 23 goals in this first 2 seasons) but he's not a sure thing by any measure. Probably every org has a Luca Caputi or two.
Martin Skoula, on the other hand, isn't even an asset. He's pretty much finished as an NHL defender. In fact, many Penguins fans were speculating that Skoula would be put on waivers once Jordan Leopold was acquired on Monday. He played against soft competition in Pittsburgh and couldn't even hold his head above water. He's in Andrei Zyuzin territory and I'm guessing the Penguins are glad to be rid of his remaining salary.
So - two bodies, but neither of them can capably play at the NHL level. What's more surprising is the fact that this was, I assume, the best deal Burke could get for Poni. Granted he's a rental and dealing anything significant for 20 games of a single skater is almost always silly...we all know that the auction like environment of the deadline often drives up prices for whoever is available and given the fact that this isn't exactly a bumper crop this year it's fairly surprising to me that no one else stepped up to offer anything more attractive than "okay prospect, doddering vet". So, either Shero has compromising photos of Burke or Ponikarovsky wasn't really perceived as all that useful around the league.
It'll be interesting to see how he does on Crobsy's wing. Ponikarvosky has scored more than 2 ESP/60 in each of the last two seasons on a pretty marginal team.
"Poni" is to the Maple Leafs what Rene Bourque is to the Flames - a top-notch all around forward. Ponikarovsky faces a decent level of competition, has the second best corsi rate on the team (+19/60!), the best ESP/60 rate on the club (2.27) and he can play on both the PP and PK. He's also a 6'4", 223 pound guy who can skate.
I consider Ponikarovsky the ideal candidate for the Flames to target. He's managed sterling underlying numbers for the last few seasons, is just 29 years old and is the type of guy the team could try to retain next year. In fact, he's so good it would stun me if Burke didn't have his name on a new contract come March.
This post isn't to lament the fact that the Flames missed out on Poni when they dealt Phaneuf (Sutter obviously wanted a center + a guy signed beyond this year), but rather to highlight sometimes how sometimes my personal estimation of players fails to line up with their apparent market value in the league.
First, let's establish that the return for Ponikarvosky is negligible. Luca Caputi is a 22 year old who had one big year in junior - his 20 year old season. His stats that year are eye-popping, but the fact that his results prior to that were unimpressive likely means he was a "veteran" adult playing big minutes every night against teenagers. He's had good totals in the AHL (18 and 23 goals in this first 2 seasons) but he's not a sure thing by any measure. Probably every org has a Luca Caputi or two.
Martin Skoula, on the other hand, isn't even an asset. He's pretty much finished as an NHL defender. In fact, many Penguins fans were speculating that Skoula would be put on waivers once Jordan Leopold was acquired on Monday. He played against soft competition in Pittsburgh and couldn't even hold his head above water. He's in Andrei Zyuzin territory and I'm guessing the Penguins are glad to be rid of his remaining salary.
So - two bodies, but neither of them can capably play at the NHL level. What's more surprising is the fact that this was, I assume, the best deal Burke could get for Poni. Granted he's a rental and dealing anything significant for 20 games of a single skater is almost always silly...we all know that the auction like environment of the deadline often drives up prices for whoever is available and given the fact that this isn't exactly a bumper crop this year it's fairly surprising to me that no one else stepped up to offer anything more attractive than "okay prospect, doddering vet". So, either Shero has compromising photos of Burke or Ponikarovsky wasn't really perceived as all that useful around the league.
It'll be interesting to see how he does on Crobsy's wing. Ponikarvosky has scored more than 2 ESP/60 in each of the last two seasons on a pretty marginal team.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Looking for Bargains? Pick-up Mueller
Darren Dreger released a top 10 "most likely to be trade" list recently, which PD fisks here. There are potentially a number of interesting rental names there, but the one sneaky value guy may be the Coyotes Peter Mueller. The kid made the big club as a teen back in 2007 and scored 22 goals as a rookie. Now, there was probably some nice circumstances and bounces involved (since that's his best single season output thus far), but anyone who makes the show as a teen and puts up 20+ goals on a bad team is no joke.
Muellers results stink this year - 3 goals, 13 points. According to Five For Howling (linked in the PD story above), his play has been "disastrous". Now, when I see results that poor and read comments like that, the first thing I check is the percentages - especially with young players who have managed nice numbers at a young age already.
And, not surprisingly, Mueller's PDO is the worst amongst regular skaters on the club at 96.3. His on-ice SH% (6.8) is ghastly. Only Shane Doan and Matthew Lombardi have a worse on-ice SV%. In contrast, Mueller's other underlying numbers are solid. He's in the black in terms of possession (corsi is +8.34/60) and his level of competition is roughly middle of the road.
In short, the kids getting jobbed by the bounces more than anything. He's in line for a correction down the road. On top of that, he's a functional NHL player at just 21 years old - those are extremely rare, valuable commodities. So while he may not look like a viable "rental player" who will help a team win a play-off series right now, he's probably the type of guy who is can help a team win a bunch down the road.
Muellers results stink this year - 3 goals, 13 points. According to Five For Howling (linked in the PD story above), his play has been "disastrous". Now, when I see results that poor and read comments like that, the first thing I check is the percentages - especially with young players who have managed nice numbers at a young age already.
And, not surprisingly, Mueller's PDO is the worst amongst regular skaters on the club at 96.3. His on-ice SH% (6.8) is ghastly. Only Shane Doan and Matthew Lombardi have a worse on-ice SV%. In contrast, Mueller's other underlying numbers are solid. He's in the black in terms of possession (corsi is +8.34/60) and his level of competition is roughly middle of the road.
In short, the kids getting jobbed by the bounces more than anything. He's in line for a correction down the road. On top of that, he's a functional NHL player at just 21 years old - those are extremely rare, valuable commodities. So while he may not look like a viable "rental player" who will help a team win a play-off series right now, he's probably the type of guy who is can help a team win a bunch down the road.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Deadline
- As I've done the last two years, I'll be following Jay Onraits hilarious blog on TSN. Recommended.
- My Flames coverage will appear elsewhere, as mentioned. That is, if Sutter ends up doing anything.
- First trade of the day is Antoine Vermette for Pascal Leclaire. Both players grossly underperfomed this season, so it seems a sensible swap. My thoughts? CBJ wins this trade. I have a feeling Leclaire had himself a "Raycroft rookie" year under Hitchcock's system last season and isn't any where near that good in actuality. And you know what I think medicore goalies are worth (nothing).
As for Vermette, he's been a 20 goal guy since he broke into the league, aside from this year. His SH% is 6.38%, whereas it was around 13% previously. He's almost guaranteed to rebound, especially if he lands on Nash's line.
- Oh god, Damien Cox is on TSN today. Coxbloc must be thrilled.
- Another day, another contribution to Cycle Like the Sedins. This time, James asked me what I'd o if I was Sutter at the deadline. Any regular reader of this space can probably guess my moves.
- Stuff is already starting to fly around. James Mirtle and Oilers/Flames Nation are both keeping track of all the moves being made.
Im surprised the Leafs claimed Gerber. I guess he's better than Curtis Joseph and Justin Pogge in terms of being a back-up.
- Dallas claims Morrison off of waivers. Hate to tell you this, Hull, but...Brendan Morrison sucks.
- How is it both Gerber and Morrison were claimed off of waivers, but not Miro Satan? That's craziness - he's by far the most useful player out of the 3.
- It's been said that Deadline day is "Christmas #2 in Canada". To be honest, I think I like today more than Christmas. Does that make me a bad person?
- Rumors are, the Flames have a deal in place for Jokinen: Lombo, Prust and a 1st rounder. Yikes.
- Good to see the EDM Oilers doing absolutely nothing. Actually, I would prefer they go into "buy" mode just to ensure future mediocrity.
- Lots of stuff has happened while I was away for lunch. Here's my quick takes on the trades that stood out:
- Guerin for a 5th round conditional? Really? I mean, the guy hasn't had a great season, but that's absolutely peanuts. Surely he should be worth more than Kevin Lalande? Speaking of which...
Sutter moved Lalande to CBJ for a 4th rounder. An ECHL goaltender for...well, anything is a steal, let alone a draft pick inside the top 4 rounds. I have no idea why Howson would do such a thing.
- Pahlsson to the Blackhawks makes all sort of sense for Chicago. They just got a lot better methinks, with a center who can play the tough minutes.
- The 3-way deal that saw EDM get O'Sullivan was shrewd move on the Oilers part. I think they got the best player in the deal, since Cole was having a lousy year and wasn't going to return anyways. Not sure why LAK gave up on O'Sullivan like that - I mean, Williams is a good player, but really, really, fragile.
- Biggest joke of the day? Derek Morris for three (!) roster players (Kalinin, Dawes and Prucha). Horrible overpayment for pending UFA Morris, who isn't all that great anyways. Sather screws the pooch again.
- How abut those Coyotes? They added Upshall, Kalinin, Dawes, Prucha, Lombardi and Prust today (and whatever they got back for Telqvist) and lost a back-up goalie, Derek Morris, Daniel Carcillo and 41 point-man Olli Jokinen. Now that's how to sell at the deadline.
- The biggest moves may be the ones that didn't happen - namely Bouwmeester stayed in Florida. That's a mistake in my opinion, but we'll see how it goes. If the Panthers lose in the first round and Jay bolts in the off-season...ouch.
- My Flames coverage will appear elsewhere, as mentioned. That is, if Sutter ends up doing anything.
- First trade of the day is Antoine Vermette for Pascal Leclaire. Both players grossly underperfomed this season, so it seems a sensible swap. My thoughts? CBJ wins this trade. I have a feeling Leclaire had himself a "Raycroft rookie" year under Hitchcock's system last season and isn't any where near that good in actuality. And you know what I think medicore goalies are worth (nothing).
As for Vermette, he's been a 20 goal guy since he broke into the league, aside from this year. His SH% is 6.38%, whereas it was around 13% previously. He's almost guaranteed to rebound, especially if he lands on Nash's line.
- Oh god, Damien Cox is on TSN today. Coxbloc must be thrilled.
- Another day, another contribution to Cycle Like the Sedins. This time, James asked me what I'd o if I was Sutter at the deadline. Any regular reader of this space can probably guess my moves.
- Stuff is already starting to fly around. James Mirtle and Oilers/Flames Nation are both keeping track of all the moves being made.
Im surprised the Leafs claimed Gerber. I guess he's better than Curtis Joseph and Justin Pogge in terms of being a back-up.
- Dallas claims Morrison off of waivers. Hate to tell you this, Hull, but...Brendan Morrison sucks.
- How is it both Gerber and Morrison were claimed off of waivers, but not Miro Satan? That's craziness - he's by far the most useful player out of the 3.
- It's been said that Deadline day is "Christmas #2 in Canada". To be honest, I think I like today more than Christmas. Does that make me a bad person?
- Rumors are, the Flames have a deal in place for Jokinen: Lombo, Prust and a 1st rounder. Yikes.
- Good to see the EDM Oilers doing absolutely nothing. Actually, I would prefer they go into "buy" mode just to ensure future mediocrity.
- Lots of stuff has happened while I was away for lunch. Here's my quick takes on the trades that stood out:
- Guerin for a 5th round conditional? Really? I mean, the guy hasn't had a great season, but that's absolutely peanuts. Surely he should be worth more than Kevin Lalande? Speaking of which...
Sutter moved Lalande to CBJ for a 4th rounder. An ECHL goaltender for...well, anything is a steal, let alone a draft pick inside the top 4 rounds. I have no idea why Howson would do such a thing.
- Pahlsson to the Blackhawks makes all sort of sense for Chicago. They just got a lot better methinks, with a center who can play the tough minutes.
- The 3-way deal that saw EDM get O'Sullivan was shrewd move on the Oilers part. I think they got the best player in the deal, since Cole was having a lousy year and wasn't going to return anyways. Not sure why LAK gave up on O'Sullivan like that - I mean, Williams is a good player, but really, really, fragile.
- Biggest joke of the day? Derek Morris for three (!) roster players (Kalinin, Dawes and Prucha). Horrible overpayment for pending UFA Morris, who isn't all that great anyways. Sather screws the pooch again.
- How abut those Coyotes? They added Upshall, Kalinin, Dawes, Prucha, Lombardi and Prust today (and whatever they got back for Telqvist) and lost a back-up goalie, Derek Morris, Daniel Carcillo and 41 point-man Olli Jokinen. Now that's how to sell at the deadline.
- The biggest moves may be the ones that didn't happen - namely Bouwmeester stayed in Florida. That's a mistake in my opinion, but we'll see how it goes. If the Panthers lose in the first round and Jay bolts in the off-season...ouch.
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