Picking winners in the post-season is a fools errand because almost anything can happen in a 7 game series. Of course, that never stops any of us now does it?
East
MTL vs WAS
I regard the Canadiens as one of the weakest clubs in the playoffs this year. Goaltending and their perennially hot PP kept them above the water line, but just barely. They have a terrible shot differential and extremely lackluster forward depth. They suffered through some health issues which likely put a dent in the underlying numbers, but even healthy I can't see them beating the Caps (unless Theodore blows up completely).
Washington in 5.
NJD vs PHI
The Devils were somewhat mediocre after the Olympic break, while the Flyers were somewhat mediocre all year, although a think a large measure of Philadelphia's problems were percentage-based (ie; luck) and the lack of a true starting goalie. So while I think this could have been a good series had PHI been starting, say, Emery, there's little chance that Boucher out-duels Broduer.
NJD in 6.
BOS vs BUF
The Bruins came back down to earth despite the fact that Tuuka Rask became a legit goalie this year. The Sabres, probably the best team not to make the dance last year, deserve to be where they are (although I wouldn't bet on Miller reproducing this season next year). Without Savard in the line-up, I don't give Boston much hope in this one.
BUF in 6.
PIT vs OTT
The Senators don't impress me at all. They rode a very fortunate winning streak to their current position, but have been fairly unimpressive otherwise. Their goaltending is crap, their forward and defensive depth is "meh" and they'll be facing two of the best forwards on the planet in the first round.
No way they advance.
Pittsburgh in 5.
WEST
SJS vs COL
I think both clubs are relatively lucky to be in the position they're in: San Jose to win the division and Colorado to make the playoffs. That said, the Sharks are the better team from tip to stern. Unless the bounces start favoring the Avs again (with extreme prejudice) the Cinderella story ends here.
SJS in 6.
CHI vs NSH
It's remarkable the Predators are in the playoffs at all given their line-up and budget restraints. That said, the Blackhawks are the WC juggernauts (despite their goaltending issues) and I expect them to roll over the Preds in short order.
Chicago in 4.
VCR vs LAK
This could be the most contentious first round match-up. I like aspects of both teams, including the top 6 forward depth for both. However, both also have their holes (Canucks bottom end of the roster, injuries to the blueline...Kings goaltending and medicore defensive depth) so there's no clear winner here. If Luongo can't get back on the horse, the Canucks are in trouble. However, an elite Luongo can also probably be the difference.
Vancouver in 7.
DET vs PHX
The Coyotes won a lot of shoot-outs this year (14!), so their point total is no doubt inflated. That said, they have pretty decent underlying stats across the board so they aren't pretenders like, say, the Ottawa Senators. I think almost any other match-up would have been more favorable for them however. The Red Wings are finally healthy and the percentages have swung back into their favor (after struggling under the weight of the bounces for most of the first half). Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Franzen are still outstanding and there's just no response for that level of skill on the Coyotes side. I'll be cheering for the Desert Dogs in this one, but I wouldn't put money on them.
DET in 6.
