Monday, January 26, 2009

Prospects update

As we wait for the real thing to get going I again, it seems like a good time to take stock of the future assets and how they're progressing.

AHL:

There is, unfortunately, not much to talk about on the farm. Like last year, the QC Flames are being led offensively by a marginal veteran in Jamie Lundmark. Greentree, Chucko and Germyn are the only other guys scoring above a .5 PPG pace and only three of the regular skaters are in the black in terms of plus/minus (Palin, Eriksson and VDG).

I think the one pleasant surprise surfacing in QC this year is Brett Palin. The 24 year old was the only farm player to get selected for the AHL all-star game, despite some pretty lackluster offensive totals. That suggests he's been doing some stellar work on the other side of the puck, which is further evidenced by his team leading +6 mark. The former Kelowna Rocket was also a relatively impressive +14 last season, for a similarly punchless club. Another Pardy-like depth guy in the making perhaps?

Also, it's notable that Chucko has apparently taken a big step forward this season, although I don't know how much can be attributed to a change in scenery (better linemates, more PP time, etc.) versus honest-to-goodness improvement. Still, he's already matched his previous seasons point totals in half the games played. Credit where credit is due.

At some point in the near future, I may take the time to give the farm club the Willis treatment, which is basically a way to suss out each player's quality of competition. It's incredibly labor intensive, however, so it may take a long dry spell or attractive bribes to convince to go forward with it. It be rally interesting to me to see if Lundmark et al. are scoring against the big boys or if someone like VDG is getting fed to the wolves for the scorer's benefit. It would also be instructive to see if Palin is indeed playing against tough competition.

Junior:

Im only going to look at the guys who intrigue me personally here.

- Greg Nemisz

By the numbers is having a whale of a season. 27 goals and 58 points in just 47 games so far, with a +39 (!) rating. He's currently on pace to best his previous point total by about 17. He's also 9th in OHL scoring.

A word of caution, however: Nemisz plays for the top ranked team in the CHL. The Windsor Spitfires have lost just 5 games in regulation so far, and have already clinched a play-off spot. They have a +99 GD and have won their last consecutive 13 games.

They're a juggernaut, and one would expect a sort of Bruins-like halo effect to settle over most of their players. In short, there may be some inflating going on here.

- TJ Brodie

Has cooled somewhat after his red hot start, but is still putting up some decent numbers with 7 goals and 35 points through 42 games. Brodie ranks 4th on his club in terms of scoring and easily has the highest PPG rate of any defender on the Spirit. Certainly an intriguing mid-round pick.

- Mitch Wahl

Another guy that came hard out of the gate, Wahl has setttled down into a PPG pace since. He has already bested his goal total from last season, but is on pace to fall short of his career high 73 points. The good news is, He's currently third on the Chiefs in scoring and also leads the club in terms of goals and +/-.

- Mikael Backlund

After his mediocre run in Sweden, Backlund's foray into North American Junior hockey has gone well so far with 2 goals and 6 points in 6 games played. Given he's already played amongst men in his homeland and here with the Flames, I'd really like to see a strong finish from Backlund this year: a better than 1.00 PPG rate would improve my faltering expectations of him as a future offensive contributor at the NHL level I think.

- John Negrin

Negrin was recently traded from the mediocre Kootenay Ice to the slightly less mediocre Swift Current Broncos. Since then, he's gone 1-5-6 in six games, so it looks like the new surroundings may be treating him well. His 6 goals are easily a career high and he's on pace to manage about 60 points by the end of the RS (again, a career best). He is currently tied for 10th in terms of overall scoring amongst defenders in the WHL, although his PPG pace of 0.84 actually places him inside the top 7 blueliners.

Some good stuff all around. There isn't much on the farm, but it looks like some of the Junior guys are coming along nicely (and I didn't even bother to look at Keith Aulie). There isn't much bubbling under right now, but the farm team should experience a decent injection of skill in a year or two.