I've Seen This Film Before

The heady glow emanating from the most recent road win may be partially blotting out the ugly fact that the Flames were flat-as-roadkill during their two previous away games and are still one of the worst road teams in the league.

Just how prophetic was that little comment?

Heading into a weekend of away games I felt it prudent to point out that the Flames still needed to take a few significant steps forward when it came to their collective road performance.

Mission most certainly NOT accomplished.

Calgary was hopelessly outclassed by both Minnesota and Chicago. They were outshot by a cumulative sum of 81-46 over the course of the two contests and only escaped with OT loser points thanks to the heroics of Miikka Kiprusoff.
I was unable to watch the Wild game, but extrapolating from the utterly lackluster crap I saw yesterday (and most of the year for that matter), Im fairly certain I can guess with a high degree of accuracy what it looked like: flacid forecheck, a marked inability to clear the puck from the defensize zone, tentative special teams and a penchant for watching the play rather than initiating it.

Consider this: The Chicago Blackhawks entered yesterday's match on a 10 game losing streak. They were 16 points behind the Flames in the WC standings, had allowed nearly 30 more goals and scored nearly 30 less and owned the leagues worst powerplay. This is the team that outshot Calgary 17-5 in the third period and 40-22 overall. Despite giving up a last minute goal and a PP goal in overtime, the Flames were downright lucky to even be in the game at all at that point.

Such is the nature of the Flames on the road. It would be convenient to point to the Iginla and Regehr absenses as the cause of this past weekends set-backs, but, let's face it - Calgary has been terrible on the road all year regardless of who was or wasn't in the line-up.

A significant amount of blame from yesterday's suckfest should be placed squarely on the shoulders of the Flames supporting cast, however. Frontliners Huselius, Langkow, Tanguay, Hamrlik and Phaneuf managed to be effective enough to drag the rest of the squad, kicking and screaming, into OT. Everyone else, from Lombardi down to Nilson, Yelle, Lundmark, Warrener and Zyuzin were mediocre or worse. Yelle in particular struggled in my eyes. He won only 45% of his face-offs and was extremely passive and ineffective on the PK. At even-strength, I dont honestly remember him even entering the offensive zone. The latter sentiment goes for most of the 3rd and 4th liners yesterday - Playfair couldn't seem to squeeze any quality minutes from the grinders and energy players. The best they could offer was hanging on just long enough to give the first line guys some rest. By "hanging on" I mean "by the skin of their teeth".

For his part, Savard did a good job of getting Martin Havlat (and whoever his linemates are) out against Calgary's lesser lights, especially Ference-Warrener, Zyuzin-Giordano. This sort of mismatch is less of an issue when guys like Nilson and Yelle are playing effective hockey...which, of course, they weren't yesterday. Resulting in multiple shots and scoring chances against and extended periods of time in the defensive zone...

I guess I could go on beating this dead horse, but really, it's all too appallingly familiar at this point. As such, I figured I'd end the post with a couple of positives:

- Kipper is playing great.

- Kristian Huselius is on a 9 game point streak.

- Tanguay was Calgary's best offensive player yesterday.

- Phaneuf and Hamrlik have looked very good the last 3 games. "Best defensemen on the ice" good.

- The Flames are 6-2-2 in their last 10 despite lacking siginificant players from their line-up.

- And finally, Calgary is 6 points ahead of Edmonton with a game in hand.

Next up! LA tomorrow night (in Calgary, thank God).

A Return to Action: Calgary @ Minnesota Preview

The break is over and the Flames are back in action tonight, no doubt hoping to carry over some of the magic they found against the Greasers in Rexall last Saturday.

The heady glow emanating from the most recent road win may be partially blotting out the ugly fact that the Flames were flat-as-roadkill during their two previous away games and are still one of the worst road teams in the league.

Which are not insignificant issues heading into Minnesota tonight. While the Wild have dropped four in a row in their barn recently, they still have one of the more impressive home records in the league (17-5-3). Additionally, Marian Gaborik has finally returned from injury and is scoring like a healthy Marian Gaborik usually does. Calgary, meanwhile, is still without Jarome Iginla, although it's expected that Chuck Kobasew will be returning to the fold tonight (woop-di-doo!).

David Moss and Eric Godard will also be wearing Flames against the Wild. Moss has been impressive since his call-up several weeks ago and is probably a few more good games away from cementing a roster spot on the big club for good. Godard, meantime, will be around to police the acitivities of Derek Boogaard. Im sure Playfair doesn't want the Sakatchewan Sasquatach leveling Huselius or Lombardi like he did to Ales Hemsky a couple of games ago...

As far as the Wild go, they'll be without Manny Fernandez tonight thanks to an injury he suffered in their last contest. Nicklas Backstrom has been solid in his 14 outings so far this season, so don't expect a big advantage there. Not that the Flames are in the habit of taking advantage of crappy back-ups anyways. In addition, Minnesota will be without the services of Todd White and Kurtis Foster, while the likes of Kim Johnsson and Keith Carney will be returning to action this evening.

Let's go with a Kipper special tonight. He's relatively well-rested and he's been great for most of January. 3-1 Flames. Tanguay (2) and Giordano for Calgary. Gaborik for Minnesota.

Go Flames!

Raycroft Revisited

I think the all-star game is a great experience for players and nice way to introduce a break into the NHL schedule. I also think it's pretty boring and largely irrelevant, so I'm therefore ignoring it on the blog.

To fill space, I figured I would take some time to pat myself on the back. You see, way back in July I made some snide, off-hand comment about JFJ acquiring Raycroft that set off a bit of a firestorm in the comments section:

"keep in mind that JFJ decided to trade for Andrew Raycroft: a deal that won him probably the worst tender in the NHL last season AND cost him a top-notch propsect in Rask."

Was the sentence that proved too offensive for some of my friends and readers to let pass by without comment.

The ensuing battle, readable at the end of the post, was waged over whether the Raycroft deal was a sensible one. For my part, I felt trading a top-notch prospect for a tender who had enjoyed one good year and suffered through one terrible year (the latter being the most recent) was a probably a bad move. There were lots of goalies available in the summer, and JFJ decided to trade for the one with the worst stats in the league from the prior season. My friends argued that Raycroft proved his pedigree during his rookie campaign in Boston, was ill-treated and hobbled by injury during the 05/06 season and therefore had a good chance of finding his form again in Toronto...

As it Stands now:

over half way through the season and how is old Andrew doing? Let's take a look...

40 games played, 20 wins, and an ugly 3.10 GAA to go with his 0.892 Sv%.

On one side, the above stats are better than his previous seasons #'s (3.71 GAA, 0.879 Sv%). on the other side, he is currently 31st in the league in terms of GAA and 36th in terms of Sv%. The Maple Leafs are currently tied with the Pittsbugh Penguins for the final play-off spot in the East, but have played 3 more games than the flightless birds. All this despite the fact that JFJ has a $20 million blueline.

Hmmm...not looking too good now is it? Of course, it's difficult to seperate a goalie's peformance from the team around him. Perhaps any goalie would be suffering behind the likes of Belak, Gill and McCabe?

Comparing Raycroft to 'tenders in similar situations can be helpful, though. Consider MA Fleury has managed a 2.87 GAA and .905 Sv% behind the similarly ranked Penguins. And he has arguably a worse blueline corps operating in front of him. Ed Belfour, he who so resembles a dried up mummy husk, has played 29 games for a team that has 4 less wins than the Buds and has managed superior numbers (2.62 GAA, .902 SV%). Manny Legace, who was the original topic in the aforementioned post, has been a significant part of the Blues current winning streak. That said, St. Louis is still 2 games below .500 and hovering south of the play-off mark in the West - his stats? 2.69 GAA and .907 Sv% (I'd also like to point out that Legace was had for nothing via free agency AND makes six hundred thousand less than Raycroft).

Overall, Andrew is ahead of only 5 other goalies that have played 30 or more games thus far in the GAA category. Of those 5, three have a superior Sv% to Raycroft's (Kolzig - .910, Thomas - .901, Nittymaki - .893). Take a look at that last name - Antero Nittymaki, who has all of 6 wins ALL YEAR, has a slightly better Sv%. Ouch.

There's potentially some good excuses one could use to defend Raycroft: JFJ clearly spent wildly but not wisely on the blueline corps in the offseason. So while Raycroft has a lot of millionaires protecting him, few of them are actually that good at it. Further, the Maple Leafs have been frequently struck by injury this season, undermining the strength of the team and contributing to his ill-fortunes...

Spare me. Nittymaki plays for a much worse team, hobbled by many more injuries and yet has managed to stop the puck at a slightly greater rate than Raycroft. Quick, can you name 3 defensemen for the Washington Capitals? Who are the bottom four blueliners in Pittsburgh? St. Louis? Anyone...?

The fact is, Raycroft has struggled and it shouldn't be much of a surprise to anyone. Take a gander at his career stats. His best season of pro hockey came in 03/04 with the Bruins. Before that time, Raycroft never put up startling numbers, even at the AHL level (or the OHL level, for that matter). During his best season in Providence, he managed a GAA of 2.50 and a Sv% of .917. To put that in perspective, 6 of the top 10 goaltenders in the AHL this year have superior Sv%, while all 10 have better GAA's.

Haha!

I suppose I should cage my guffaws and self-congratulations until the end of the year, when the big, red "failure!" stamp can be officially applied to the Raycroft acquisition. However I'm fairly certain, as I was in July, that this is an inevitability anyways. So why delay the gratification?

The All-Star Break Data Dump

With the regular season action arrested for the all-star festivities, I figured it would be a good time to update some basic+ stats for the Flames.

First, the raw stuff:

(click to enlarge)

Pulled directly from nhl.com, put in a spreadsheet with the TOI figures rounded off to the nearest minute.

The resultant even-strength points per 60 minutes played look like this:

Predictably, Jarome is the big fish when it comes to ES production efficiency. I haven't crunched league-wide numbers, but Im guessing he's among elite company when it comes to this figure. In fact, despite playing only 39 games, Iginla is still in the top 10 in the NHL in terms of gross ES points.

Damond Langkow and Alex Tanguay also have pretty nice looking numbers that have no doubt been somewhat augmented by playing with Jarome for most of the season. Still, both players (particularly Langkow) have continuted to be productive despite Iginla's absence from the line-up over the last 3 weeks or so. Meaning they haven't been completely riding on Iggy's coattails.

The index at left also reveals that Lombardi is something of a "special teams" guy. His ESP/60 figure is pretty unimpressive, even though he's enjoying a career season. However, 14 of his 32 points have come while either up or down a man (5 SHP, 9 PPP) which, I think, speaks partially to the kind of player he is: smaller, fast and agile, he tends to flourish when there's more room to skate (as an aside, Lombo's 5 SHP tie him with Staal and Lecavalier for 2nd in the league).

Not a lot of surprises here, otherwise. Giordano being the top ESP/60 d-man on the team is a little strange, though his higher figure is no doubt owing to his relatively miniscule amount of ice-time (384 vs. 1,193 for Phaneuf for example). Further, David Moss' 2.71 number is a decent rate for a mid-season 3rd liner call-up, although it no doubt suffers from the same confounder (small TOI sample) as Giordano's figure. Still, encouraging.

Finally, Huselius' ESP/60 stats looks a tad wee considering he's been one of the hottest Flames for the last 2 months. However, he has increased his pace from the end of November by about .50 points/60 at ES and could be among the other big boys by the 3/4 pole if he continues to augment his rate of production at this kind of clip. No guarantees, of course, but he could very well find himself back on a line with Iggy and Langkow once the Captain makes his return in February...

As for the the Powerplay points/60 minutes, they curently look like this:

Calgary's struggles with the man-advantage are clearly reflected by the fact that the likes of Iginla and Langkow have PPP/60 stats that are barely above their ESP/60 stuff. Typically, one should expect a full 1 or 2 point jump in efficiency when on the PP, relative to a player's ESP production. For example, last season Joe Sakic scored at a rate of 2.90/60 at 5on5 and 4.66/60 at 5on4. Alex Tanguay, who led the Avs with a 3.15/60 at ES jumped to 4.92/60 on the PP. Other Colorado players more than doubled their ESP/60 numbers with the man-advantage: Brunette jumped from 2.29 to 5.42 and Svatos went from 2.81 to 5.62.

The Flames have Juice and Lombo in this category: both have significantly larger PPP/60 figures (and, of course, "Delmore" Phaneuf). However, those players that should be the primarily driving the PP results - namely Jarome, Damond and Alex - are putting up some rather mediocre numbers considering their proficiency at ES. Hell, Tanguay's 2.73 PPP/60 stat is a almost a full
0.70 below his ES number! how the hell does someone manage that?

It also doesn't help that the Flames don't have another d-man aside from the Dion that can produce at any sort of rate on the PP. Ference's number is only so-so even though he's only had 98 PP minutes all year. Hamrlik has been a stalwart on the back-end for the Flames thus far, but his production on the PP has to be considered at least a little disappointing. He's another guy who's ESP and PPP efficiency rates are basically the same.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for anyone glancing at the PPP/60 index is Chuck Kobasew's place a' top of the pile. Nearly half of his points this season have come on the powerplay (7 of 17) and he's only played about 92 minutes at 5on4. Still, small PPTOI aside, at least Charles seems to have some utility despite his struggles this season.

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Beyond individual stats, the Flames team metrics are at once fantastic and abysmal: They lead the league in home wins (19), cumulative +/- (+43), ES goals against (55), and short-handed goals (11). The Flames are also a +33 in terms of ES goal differential and +28 in terms of total GD. TO put that in perspective, Buffalo, Anaheim, Nashville, Ottawa, New Jersey and Edmonton have goal differentials of +37, +41, +45, +32, +15 and -6 respectively.

The thing seperating Calgary from the truly elite teams like BUF, NSH and ANA in the GD category (and overall standings for that matter) is, of course, their bafflingly bad special teams (and road play, which is somewhat related). The Flames PP and PK are both currently ranked 26th in the NHL. Despite boasting the stingiest defense and 13th best offence at ES, the Flames can't seem to get their special teams up to even middling levels of competency. As mentioned, part of that has to do with their continued ineptitude on the road (glorious Saturday night victories at Rexall place aside). Right now, Calgary is a division worst 7-12-4 away from home. While almost all aspects of the Flame's game seems to suffer on the road, the special teams seem particularly bad: at the Dome, Calgary has managed 23 PPG in 132 PP chances (17.4%). On the road, they have scored at a significantly lesser rate: 14 PPG in 111 PP chances (12.6%). The disparity between the home and away PK success rates are even more substantial: At home, the Flames have killed off 83.6% of their penalties. On the road, only 75.2%. That means the Flames have the 16th best PK in the Dome that somehow transforms into the 27th best PK when they're staying in hotels! ARGGHH!

The answer to the road/special teams issues are beyond me, frankly. I've spilled a lot of ink (figuratively) around here both bemoaning these problems as well suggesting potential solutions. At this point, it really looks like a "mental thing" and all a fan can really do is hope the players can figure it out and start to execute with greater efficacy...

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So, overall, I think the picture is a fairly rosey one. Calgary is getting elite production from their first liners at ES and are among the league's best in multiple categories. If the boys can sort out their main areas of concern to some degree of satisfaction there's no reason to the think they can't once again be the NW division champs come April.

Images and Stats From Saturday Night's Greatness - A Gloat Post

The Towering Sundae



The Cherr(ies) on Top.
(click to enlarge)

I don't think I could have scripted a better way for the Flames to enter the all-star break. Two consecutive wins on back-to-back nights, the second a shut-out pasting of the Stinktown Greasers.

First place in thew NW.

Winning despite lacking their best player.

Kipper tying a franchise record for career shut-outs.

A threesome with supermodels might be one of the rare events that equals the above for pure pleasure. If all that's not enough for you though, observe the frenzied Oiler fan tooth-gnashing here for further amusement.

Perhaps the best part of Saturday night's glorious victory was the fact that I fully expected the Flames to lose. The Battle of Alberta has been a homer's series till now this season, and Calgary is typically a terrible road team besides. Add in the injuries to Jarome and Charles and, well...let's just say I would have been happy with an OT loss. But, on the back of some decent team defense and a fantastic outing from Kiprusoff, the Flames managed to prevail. Of course, it helps that Juice is playing probably the best hockey of his life (did you see that feed to Tanguay for goal #3?!) and the Oilers have a terrible blueline...

All in all, a great night. Thanks for making my weekend and enjoy the all-star breaks boys! You deserve it.

Yeah I've used this image before. So sue me*.

(*this is a figure of speech. If you are the owner/creator of the above image, please do NOT sue me).

With Anaheim hobbling into town, the Lame Duck graphic was simply too appropriate to be left idle. Particularly since both marquee Anaheim defensemen now have foot related injuries.

Not that that has stopped Carlyle from leaning on Special Nieds extra hard while Pronger's been laid up. As Sleek recently pointed out, the better of the two Anaheim brothers has been averaging well over 30 minutes a night since the felling of the gap-toothed giant. And that's even after it was discovered that Scott the Greater has a stress fracture in his foot. Yeesh.

It's somewhat of an intelligible strategy given that Kent Huskins (gah?) and Ric Jackman (eww) are the current 5th and 6th d-men for the Quackers. Especially in light of the fact that Ilya (Flame Killer) what's-his-face has been ordinary in relief of the also injured (Former Flame) JS Giguere.

Not that riding Scotty N into the ground has been a particularly successful strategy thus far. After using and degrading the competition for the first half of the season, the Mallards have crashed back down to Earth. Winners of only 2 of their last 10 games, Anaheim's sudden penchant for losing even has ardent fan Earl Sleek refering to them derisively as the Anaheim "Sucks". BWAHAHAH! How the Mighty have fallen (get it?)!

Not that the Flames can afford to take tonight's foes lightly. After spitting in the face of fate (with contempt) by winning 5 straight games (sans Iginla) Calgary has looked decidedly crappy in their last 2 matches and, as result, are still stuck in the middle of the sordid NW dog-fight.

Keys to tonights game:

1.) Attack Anaheim's crappy defense. No Pronger. No Beauchemin. Exhausted, injured Niedermayer. Shitty stand-ins. High tempo forecheck = good.

2.) No Andrei Zyuzin. Word is the useless former #2 draft pick is headed back to scratchville with Jamie Lundmark. Eric Godard is getting a trip to the bigs and will dress in his stead. Expect Godard to smack the porn 'stache right off Parros' face tonight.

3.) Play some...you know...defense. Anaheim still has a dangerous attack boasting the NHL's leading scorer Teemu Selanne. The Flame's last 2 losses have featured some ugly performances from most of their top 4 d-men, so a turn-around will need to occur in order to ensure a victory.

4.) Quality minutes from the *other* guys. Huselius and Langkow have been great in Jarome's absence. Tonight Calgary will need some decent performances from the bottom-enders to compete: Ritchie, Friesen, Yelle, Nilson and Amonte Im looking at you. In addition, the Flame's 2nd line will need to better as well. Lombardi, in particular, will have to be more of a factor than he has been recently.

5.) Line matching. Carlyle has a hell of shut-down group in Pahlsson, Moen and Marchant. Hopefully Playfair can get Juice and Langkow out against some of Anaheim's weaker lights by employing the last change tonight.

6.) Special teams. Calgary's suck. It would help if they didn't suck quite as much.

Finally, it's home game this evening and we all know what that means...

Let's go with a 3-1 Calgary victory. Amonte, Tanguay and Juice for the Flames, Brian Burke for the Ducks.

Go Flames!

Dear Edmonton:

Thanks for beating up on Anaheim for us!

Dear Anaheim:

Thanks for nothing.

Great Post Alert

Golbez over at Hockey Rants takes a shot at the newest form of Messier fellation: The Mark Messier Jersey Raising Festival that's going to take place next month in ol' Stinktown.

The whole thing is gold, but this particular quote regarding the potential congregation of Messier loyalists takes the cake:

"Fans jamming a downtown square? Where's a firebomb when you need one?"

Heh. Well done sir. Well done.

Stinking, Rotten, Maggotty, Vile

''It was a terrible first two periods. This was a team missing a majority of their top players. There were a lot of minor league guys out there,'' Calgary defenceman Robyn Regehr said. ''We didn't take advantage of that at all." - TSN.ca

While this quote from Regehr regarding the Flames efforts last night against Dallas is apropos, a much more succinct "same old story" would have been as equally as appropriate.

Like the previous loss to Nashville - and most of their road defeats this season - the Flames played about 10 minutes of quality hockey and about 50 minutes of baffling "who the fuck ARE these guys" garbage-shinny-find-a-way-to-lose dreck. This most recent set-back, coming against basically an AHL team plus Lehtinen and Turco, moved the Flames to 6 games below .500 on the road. Six games in the red for a team that is 13 games over .500 at home!? Line-matching and last change alone cannot account for this kind of differential.

I don't think I've ever encountered anything like this previously. The Flames weren't that great on the road last year too, sure, but they managed to get up around the .500 mark by years end at least. This season that goal looks practically unattainable. I don't think Calgary has beaten a team higher than them in standings all year away from the Dome; even when said team is severely handicapped by injuries like Dallas was last night.

Ugh. I feel the Flames are a psychological vulnerability away from being an elite club. If they could find some method to at least occassionally replicate their home performances on the road once and a while they could probably run away and hide with the NW division crown. As it stands, this penchant for bed-shitting in other area codes is damning the Flames to remain in the tooth-and-nail dogfight that is positions 5-10 in the Conference...

A couple of notes from the game itself:

- Huselius was, by a wide margin, the best Calgary player on the ice. Even Langkow, who has been better than solid recently, was MIA last night. Juice scored his 20th goal of the season, extending his point-streak to 5 games, and was PKing like a mad man. During one particular sequence, he fought off 2 opponents at the Flames blueline while a man-down and managed to muscle the puck out of the zone with his skate. If the rest of the team had played with that degree of fight and determination for the whole of the contest the outcome would have been rather different.

- Alex Tanguay has been totally invisible the last 2 games to my eyes. In fact, he looks downright disinterested most of the time he's on the ice. I hope he can be re-awakened by Iggy's return.

- Andrei Zyuzin is a horrible defenseman. He made a laugh-out-loud mistake last night that lead the Star's go ahead goal. I assume he'll see the press-box next game and will remain there until injuries press him into duty once more. I doubt he will be a Flame come July.

- Matthew Lombardi had his first bad game in awhile. He was pretty much totally neutralized by Dallas' stifling trap. In addition, he was saddled with Moss and Boyd as linemates for some reason for most of the night. I like Moss and Boyd, but I bet Dave Tippett licked his chops whenever he saw that trio skate onto the ice for a face-off.

- I think Playfair recognized how much Warrener and Regehr were struggling together in Nashville, which is why he dressed 7 defensemen against Dallas. Throughout the evening Playfair was juggling the duos to see if he could identify some chemistry. Giordano, in particular, was frequently swapped around. I didn't see anything of note (besides Zyuzin sucking), but maybe Playfair found a new combination or two for the future.

- Was Nilson playing last night?

Sigh and double sigh. The good news is the Flames return home for a date with the Prongerless and struggling Anaheim Ducks. Here's hoping they can bust this 2 game skid and go into Edmonton on a winning note.

Calgary @ Dallas Preview

The last time the Flames beat the Stars in Dallas, Roman Turek was the starting goalie. Yup, it's been THAT long. With that in mind, tonight probably represents Calgary's best opportunity to put that ugly losing streak to bed...

Mainly due to the fact the Stars are the walking wounded. Dallas is currently plugging along without the services of Mike Modano (10 goals, 20 points), Brendan Morrow (10 goals, 20 points), Steve Ott (4 points), Matthew Barnaby (127 PIM), Sergei Zubov (7 goals, 30 points) and Philippe Boucher (13 goals, 33 points). That's a captain, an assistant captain, two top-2 defenseman, 2 world class aggitators and 4 of their top 10 point producers in sick-bay. Ouch. In addition, defensive specialist Jeff Halpern is out with the proverbial "lower body injury", leaving the Dallas roster looking something like swiss-cheese.

To compound the problem, Dallas is hardly an offensive dynamo, injuries aside. Both Morrow and Modano had only managed 20 points in 28 and 27 games respectively before being hobbled. The Stars don't have a single player with more than 13 goals so far this year and their highest scoring forward is Jere Lehtinen with 12. They are currently ranked 24th in the league in terms of GF and have the 2nd lowest goal total at ES (64) in the league. While they are 3rd best in the NHL in terms of GA at ES (61), the resultant ES goal differential is hardly elite (3). The Flames, in comparison, have an ES goal differential of 32.

Can you say "ripe for the picking"? Dallas is missing a ton of quality minutes on the back-end, most of their leadership and nearly half of their top goal getters. They can't score at the best of times and have won only 1 of their last 4 games. And that victory came against the woeful LA Kings.

If Calgary can keep themselves out of the penalty box tonight, they should win handily. Course, should the night turn into a special teams battle, Calgary will most likely be left lamenting yet another road loss.

As it stands, I can't see the Flames throwing away what I consider to be the most winnable contest on this roadtrip. Calgary 4, Dallas 2. Langkow, Lombardi, Hamrlik and Huselius with the goals. Brett Hull scores two from just inside the crease for Dallas.

Go Flames!

I Hate Nashville

It boasts gag-inducing country music, kissing cousins and (worst of all) the bloody Nashville Predators. Not only did they hand the Flames their most embarrassing loss of the year last season (9-4), they also tend to beat Calgary pretty much every time the two teams clash. They have aggravating little 4th liners that like to elbow and sucker-punch opposing defensemen and a goalie that attacks wingers in the corner. DAMN THEM.

Last night's defeat was hardly surprising, given the circumstances. Bad road team versus the best home team typically results in a home-side victory. It still annoys me that the Flames can't seem to solve the Predator puzzle though. It also sucks that Calgary's improbable run of good fortune had to end upon my return to the city. Bah.

As for the game itself, I thought the Flames played about 15 minutes of quality road hockey in the first period. Prior to and after that it was pretty much all Nashville. Calgary's first unit was dominant again, with Langkow and Huselius accounting for all of the Flames offense, but every other Flames forward line pretty much gotten eaten alive by their Predator counter-part. Calgary's fourth line in particular, consisting of Nilson, Lundmark and Jeff Friesen, were invariably over-matched by whoever they played against. Nilson looks like he's still trying to get up to game speed while Lundmark seems to have lost every last ounce of confidence he may have once had. Jeff Friesen reverted back to Jeff Friesen.

That said, I don't think the Calgary forwards were the problem yesterday. The Flames were done in by a poor night from their top 4 defensemen - Warrener, Regehr, Hammer and Phaneuf. Warrener was a step or two behind the play all night, no doubt owing to the fact that he's rather slow and the Predators are pretty fast. He also made two terrible reads during the game - once on the PK where he chased an opposing player into the corner and once where he pinched in at the blueline only to see the Preds break-out 3on2 - that lead directly to goals against. Not that he was alone; the Dion also seemed to struggle. He commited a couple of turn-overs in the the defensive end, replicated Warrener's error a few minutes later (resulting in the Preds 4 goal) and bobbled the puck at the Nashville blueline in the last minute of the game (thereby erasing any chance Calgary had of tying it up).

Hamrlik and Regehr weren't much better, however. Hammer was forced to take an interference penalty that lead to the Preds tying marker thanks to an inability to avoid the Nashville forecheck and efficiently head-man the puck. And Regher, well...he just continues look like half the man he's proven to be in the past. His inability to break-up plays and win the puck battles in the corner, especially on the PK, is really starting to worry me. A guy of his size, age and pedigree shouldn't be struggling to erase opposing players down low the way he currently is. I think a significant portion of the Flames PK issues can be placed at the feet of a woefully lack luster Robyn Regehr, quite frankly, and until he turns it around, Calgary will continue to suck with a man down.

On the plus side, Kristian Huselius and Damond Langkow continue to get the job done. Despite lacking an Iginla to draw away defensive heat, both guys are proving to be significant offensive threats. On a night where the rest of their teammates were consistently outdone by the opposition, the two combined for 3 goals, 9 shots and a +3 rating. It's fairly safe to say the game would have been a complete rout without these boys in the line-up...

Anyways, some bad stuff, some good stuff and a predictable outcome. All will be poems and roses once again if the Flames can dig up 2 points against the injury-depleted Stars. Should Calgary lose again, however, I may have to consider another win-streak inducing extended holiday...

A Welcome Return

What's this? I bugger off for a couple of weeks and the Flames decide to tear it up - sans Iginla? Secondary and teritiary scoring in spades? Suddenly 9 games to the black?

Whoa. It seems my excursion couldn't have been more ill-timed: I missed 3 key victories over divisional rivals that included a 7-3 ass-stomping of the Avs (on the road!) and Friesen's first goal of the season! Against Edmonton! Although somewhat belated, that juicey little fact is probably the best Christmas present I received this season. What else? Ritchie's promotion and scoring splurge. Kipper's return to form. Lombo's continued excellence. Not to mention the team's right around 6th in the league in terms GPG. And, The Oilers are sucking. Almost all's well in Flame country right now.

I say, "almost" because, as I glance through some stats stuff here, it seems the Flame's special teams still pretty much suck. The PK would be downright horrendous if guys like Huselius and Lombo weren't constantly racking up points with a man down. It's not hurting the team too much currently, but...

Okay, no more complaints. I earnestly wish I'd be around to enjoy the past couple improbable weeks, but such is life. I'm still kinda dazed and confused so I'll be easing myself back into the blogging slowly but steadily over the next week or so...


Anyways, tonight the Flames play the streaking Nashville Predators. Nashville is great at home, has the 2nd most points in the conference and have beaten the tar out of Calgary over the last 2 seasons. Ugh. Course, THIS is the game I return home to watch.

Oh well. Just watching hockey again will be nice enough. Any kind of Calgary success - be it a win, a tie in regulation or some special teams success - would be a bonus.

So, to be realistic, let's say 3-2 Preds in a S/O. Huselius and Ritchie with the Calgary goals.

Go Flames!

Back to Denver

So while Metrognome is on a cruise in the Caribbean he has asked me to keep the blog updated. Now my writing skills and in depth analysis don't even compare to his, which probably explains why on many occasions I would resort to posting pictures of women and polls. But alas I don't think that will suffice this time around as the blog has not been updated since he left a week ago.

I also have been away to Mighty Duck land during the holidays and did not keep up with the Flames. So I was pretty shocked when I came back and see so many injuries in the lineup. My first game was watching them play Dallas. I was expecting the Flames to lose that one, but they pulled off a W even after being out-shot and out-played.

Their next game vs. the Wild was fantastic! I don't think I have ever seen so many nice goals by the Flames in one game. The icing on the cake had to be the behind-the-back pass from Lombardi to Ritchie for the short handed goal. Absolutely sick!

As for tonights game against the Avalanche I don't know what to predict, especially with Calgary's shitty on-the-road performance. I am hoping for the W but that might be tough as the Avalanche will probably not want to give up 2 in a row at home (after losing to the Wings on Tuesday).

My prediction for tonight is a 3-2 Win for the Flames with Lombardi, Tanguay and Ritchie scoring.

Go Flames Go!

P.S. Congratulations to Kipper for his 100th NHL win against the Wild on Tuesday!

P.P.S. Metrognome went on a gay cruise :D

Uhhh...

...does anyone else think this move smacks of desperation? One goal and -20 in 21 games played this year? That almost makes Friesen look good (but not quite).

Various and Sundry

So Calgary won the New Years match against the Oilers for the second year in a row. The fact that the victory propelled the Flames back atop the NW division standing is less fun and interesting than the great wailing and tooth gnashing that has arisen from the Oiler faithful in it's aftermath. Ahh my foes how I love to wallow in your misery!

What's more, Jarome Iginla managed his 50th, 51st and 52nd points of the year against the Greasers. Talk about "bounce-back player of the year"; Iggy is currently 3rd in the league in terms of overall points and 1st in terms of ES scoring. The only other WC player even approaching Jarome on the list is Teemu Selanne with 50 points. And he's played 4 more games. As it stands today, Iginla has the 2nd best PPG pace in the NHL behind Sid the kid and is hovering around an incredible 3.90 ESP/60 figure. Wow.

Another Flame leading a statistical category is Kristian Huselius. In the midst of a career season himself (and on the strength of 2 recent empty-net goals) Juice is 2nd in the league in shooting percentage behind only Alexander Radulov. And given his recent play and subsequent promotion to the top line with Iginla and Langkow, don't expect this number to take a plunge any time soon.

Speaking of offense, did anyone notice that the Flames are actually averaging 3 goals per game??

So Roman Hamrlik returns and low and behold!, Dion Phaneuf is back to playing a lot on the PP and a little bit on the PK. Thank God. Not insignificantly, Hammer's return also pushed Andrew Ference back onto the 3rd pairing where he most certainly belongs. Roman's importance to this team, and Kipper's stats, can't be overstated.

Also, did anyone notice Zyuzin was scratched in favor of Mark Giordano last game? Was that an injury thing or has Playfair finally realized, like the rest of us, that Gio is the superior player?

Finally, tonight the Flames take on the Canucks for the umpteenth time in the last 2 weeks. Frankly, I thought Vancouver was extremely fortunate to come out of the last game with 2 points: they got a couple of really lucky bounces, including the OT winner, and Kipper played one of his worst games in recent memory. In addition, Jarome wasn't much of factor, which has been a rare occurance this season. Meaning one or both of the Flames superstars are bound to make some significant contributions this evening. Also, I can't see the Canucks beating the Flames at the Dome twice in a row, especially now that Hamrlik has returned. As the magic eight ball once said, "all signs point to yes" (yes being a Calgary win).

Calgary 3, Vancouver 1. Lombardi, Hamrlik and Iginla with the goals.

Go Flames!

Battle of Suckberta

Both Calgary and Edmonton are struggling to keep pucks out of their respective nets currently. Neither Kiprusoff nor Roloson have fared well over the past couple of weeks - not that they've had much assistance from either team's d-corps.

Calgary's injury woes can at least shoulder some of the blame, however. Warrener, Zyuzin, Hamrlik and Richie Regehr have all missed time thanks to various ailments, meaning the Flames have had to dig deep into their organizational depth on a number of occassions. In addition, guys like Phaneuf and Ference have been asked to play more minutes in tougher situations, resulting in a higher number of quality chances against. Mixed with Kipper's sudden struggles, the result has been none-too-pleasant. The good news is one can reasonably assume a return to form once everyone gets healthy and Kiprusoff emerges from this "off-phase".

The situation may be a little more dire in Oiler country, however. The lack of defensive depth is definately starting to take it's toll on Alberta's blueshirts. All you need to do is watch another MA Bergeron give-away result in a goal against to realize Edmonton desperately needs at least one more competant puck mover on their back-end. At the start of the season, Roloson's heroics were masking some of these issues I think, but the grind of games and quality opposition has started to erode his stamina.

Tough to pick a winner tonight. Calgary is good at home and the Oilers are crap on the road, so that's something. Not to mention the Greasers got pummeled by Vancouver last night, hopefully leaving them weary for the impending match. Overall, then, I think the Oilers will have trouble containing Iginla, like most of the Flames opposition this season, resulting in a Happy New Year(!) for me.

Calgary 4, Edmonton 3. Iginla (2), Lombardi and Huselius with the goals.

Go Flames!

Time To Bust Out

The Flames have only won 2 games out of their last 7. They have a bunch of injuries, Iginla and Tanguay are suddenly ice cold and Miikka Kiprusoff has been no better than mediocre.

Contributing factors to the slide? With all the injuries on the back end, Dion Phaneuf has been called upon to play nearly 30 minutes per night, often with 5th and 6th type d-men as partners. And he has struggled mightily. I would wager Phaneuf is tired and his confidence is ebbing. Further, Robyn Regehr has continued to be just good but not great. In the absense of Hamrlik, I was expecting Regehr to step up and be the stalwart I know he can be. Hasn't happened.

In addition, after ripping the competition asunder for the last 6 weeks or so, Iginla and Tanguay are bafflingly out of sync once more. Tanguay has reverted to his earlier season form - the one that features tentitive board play and forced plays everywhere. Tanguay's been so underwhelming recently he was dropped to the 2nd line with Lombardi and Kobasew.

Speaking of Kobasew, is this guy ever going to step up and actually start scoring some goals?

A few brights spots appeared to illumine the darness, however. David Moss seemed like an unlikely call-up at the time, but has managed to score 3 goals in his first 3 NHL games. That's more than Friesen, McCarty and Lundmark combined. Further, Mark Giordano continues to make a name for himself on the back-end. It's going to be tough to sit him when and if Zyuzin makes it back from injury.

Tonight Calgary have an ideal opportunity to turn their misfortunes around. The LA Kings come to town after beating up on Rolli and the Oilers 7-4 last night. In addition to being road-weary, the Kings will be playing their 4th string goaltender Berry Brust. If Kipper can't outduel Brust, something is VERY wrong. A final bit of good news for the Flames is Roman Hamrlik will be returning to the ice. Hammer was probably Calgary's best d-man before he was injured, not to mention he tends to settle Phaneuf's game down significantly. His 20+ quality minutes will be a welcome addition tonight.

So hopefully the Flames can recapture their 5on5 dominance and come out with a much needed victory tonight. Keep in mind, a win=1st place in the NW division. For now anyways.

Let's say 4-2 Flames. Huselius, Amonte, Phaneuf and Iginla.

Go Flames!

Onward

Thankfully the holidays and the Flames roadtrip are over. For me, neither were rather particularly enjoyable experiences (yeah...Im a humbugger).

Anyways, Calgary's back in the welcoming bosom of the Saddledome on the heels of their most recent road loss against the Sharks. The defeat was marked by rather average goaltending from Miikka Kiprusoff, who continues to play at a less than Godly level when out of town, and some odd officiating (The Flames were granted 0 powerplays. Zero.). I personally thought the team played a pretty decent road game up until the 3rd San Jose goal. With some better goaltending and a different referee, Calgary may have pulled out the victory. Which is something, at least.

Tonight, the Canucks roll into town. Which is good news for the Flames, because, like them, Vancouver tends to struggle away from home. In their last meeting in the Dome, Calgary scored 5 goals and chased Bingo Bango from the net.

Further, for the first time in awhile, the Flames will be skating with nearly a full compliment of NHL regulars tonight, with the sole exception being Mark Giordano who will be taking the place of the injured Andrei Zyuzin. Not that that upsets me in the least - Giordano's been the superior player from day one. Jeff Friesen is also rumored to be drawing back into the line-up, which is a shame: Calgary has a perfect record when he's sitting in the press-box. Hmm...

Let's go with a Flames 4-1 win. Iginla, Huselius, Kobasew and Hamrlik get the goals. As an added bonus, Friesen breaks his leg in the 2nd and is out for the remainder of the season...

Go Flames!

It's Raining...it's pouring...

The 4th game of a 6 game roadtrip is trouble enough for a team that struggles away from the confines of home like the Flames do. But that's just the tip of the proverbial iceberg as far their problems go...

Tonight Calgary rolls into LA to play their 2nd game in 2 nights after having their asses handed to them by the Ducks. They desperately need 2 points thanks to the tight NW division and already having lost 2 of the last 3 games. Problem is, they may have up to 6 regular skaters out due to injury as reports on the local radio suggest all of Kristian Huselius, Jeff Friesen and Alex Tanguay were hobbled in the aftermath of yesterday's beating. Did I mention they are playing Jamie McLennan in place of the exhausted Miikka Kiprusoff? The same McLennan who hasn't played in weeks and hasn't won a game all year?

What a friggen nightmare. Add all that to the fact the Flames road PP STILL resembles a confused pack of monkeys on vallium and one can already see the writing on the wall for this evenings contest. As far as the Kings go, they'll be getting a boost tonight with the return of blueline sniper Lubomir Visnovsky. And while LA's record doesn't frighten anyone, the fact that they are the 3rd best team in the league at generating shots should certainly give the Flames pause - mainly because they're both tired and playing their below 900 SV% goaltender.

The clouds wouldn't be so dark if Calgary weren't totally hopeless at the PP on the road. To further compound the suck-fest, the Flames primary stength - 5on5 play - has also abandonded them on this ill-fated trip (they've given up 3 ES goals against in the last 3 games). Which is, of course, not a total shock considering all the wounded personnel. But it certainly doesn't paint a rosey picture for the impending match.

I hate to be pessimistic, but I wouldn't bet the farm on Calgary tonight. Way, way too many obstacles to overcome in this one. To any Flames fan reading this, avoid the PPV this evening and start praying for a couple of Calgary wins in Colorado and San Jose. And maybe an Edmonton loss or two as well.

Jarmoe is Dead. Long Live Jarome.

Since the start of the season, I've gushed about guys like Huselius and Lombardi, Giordano and Ference (well...maybe not Ference). But, on the heels on his 2nd four point night in the last 4 games, it's about time Jarome Iginla got some press around here.

First, it's important to establish that I was one of his most outspoken critics last season. After the lock-out, the NHL saw an unprecepented explosion of offense, a renaissance evoked by more powerplays and less goaltender equipment. And Iginla was seemingly left in the dust. While players like Thornton and Jagr broke the 120 point plateau, there was Jarome, floundering behind the likes of Bryan McCabe and Jarrett Stoll. He scored less goals than Henrik Zetterberg and Marian Gaborik, even though they both played significantly fewer games than him. His ESP/60 figure was an abysmal 1.80 - smaller than many team's 3rd line wingers. Iginla's struggles resulted in the creation of the "Jarmoe" epithet, often employed by Oiler fans who delighted in his hardship(s). Even most Flames fans had to grudgingly admit that, in the face of his salary, expectations and past accomplishments, the 05/06 version of Iginla did indeed seem like a pale facsimile of the Jarome they knew before the lock-out.

Well, the 05/06 season is dead and with it, the Jarmoe doppleganger. Iginla showed up leaner and meaner in training camp and he's currently enjoying a career best start to a season. In his last 13 games, Iginla has 25 points. Only 7 players have more than Jarome's current point total, six of whom play in the much higher scoring Eastern Conference (Crosby, Jagr, St. Louis, Spezza, Hossa). The lone Western Conference player ahead of him, Teemu Selanne, has 2 more points but has played 5 more games. Further, Iginla is one of only 5 twenty-goal scorers in the league right now and the first of the 3 WC players in the top 15 in terms of goal scoring. His 29 even-strength points put him 2nd to only Sid the Kid, and his efficiency at ES is currently a staggering 3.98/60 minutes of ice. Better than double his number from last season. Only 3 players enjoy higher PPG numbers than Iginla in the league at this time, one of whom is Martin Havlat - he of the 13 game season. The other 2 are Jaromir Jagr and the phenom Sidney Crosby. Should Jarome continue to score at a rate of 1.37 points per contest, he'll end the year with 112 points. All while laboring in the offensively oppressed Western Conference, with the "offensively challenged" Calgary Flames. Wow.

The accolades don't end with his offensive stat line, however. Iginla does things most of his scoring contempories find aversive. When's the last time you saw Jagr fight anyone or grind for the puck in the corner? How often does Crosby kill penalties? (answer - almost never. The kid is sitting at just over 13 minutes of SH ice-time this season. Jarome's up around 64). Iginla's also looked upon to take important offensive and defensive zone face-offs, despite the fact that he's a winger. On the Flames, only Jamie Lundmark is better than Jarome in the dot. This is Selke nominee type stuff. Hell, all told, this is Selke, Richard, Ross, Pearson and Hart type stuff. For the first time since he signed the contract, Jarome's $7 million is actually starting to look appropriate...

Vive La Jarome!

--------------------------------------------------------------------

I probably should have shelved the Iggy fellation until after the game tonight. No doubt all this positive regard will somehow ensure a lacklustre performance from the Captain: more to make me look foolish than anything else. However, even if Iginla is again a force to be reckoned with, the cards are stacked in the Ducks favor. The Flames are lacking 3 of their top 6 blueliners, and Carlyle just LOVES to get the likes of Selanne and Kunitz out against weak-links such as Brad Ference. Not to mention the fact that the Ducks are the best team in the league and the Flames suck on the road. It'll take 2 rookies and a journeyman playing well above their heads, as well as probably the Flame's best road effort to have any hope whatsoever this evening. In fact, garnering even a single point from this match would be an admirable feat.

For a not-so-humble view from the other side, visit Sleek at the Battle of Caliornia.

Fooey and Poppycock

"I missed the game last night. How'd the Flames do?"
"Well, they got eight powerplays..."
"Awwwww crap."

If you're talking about Calgary on the road, that's about all you need to know about any given game. Lots of special teams time=loss.

Not that the Flames were any good at ES last night either. The Canucks, 2nd last in the league at scoring goals, actually outscored Calgary 5on5 3-0. Course, even a 15% success rate on the PP would have changed the game completely for the Flames. Instead, the man advantage was invariably 2 minutes of wasted time last night. Calgary should literally start purposely taking penalties as soon as they get on the PP on the road (while they're losing). They'd have a much greater chance of scoring 4on4.

There were precious few bright spots, save Lombo's great SH marker and the play of Mark Giordano. I thought he was better by half than Zyuzin (who looked like he'd never before defended a 2on1 on Sedin's goal last night). And Giordano's pass to Langkow from the corner was one of the few genuinely nice plays on the PP.

As for the rest, it's all been said before. Calgary is simply not the same team on the road as they are at home. 5 straight losses away from the Dome, 10 straight wins while at it. If the Flames don't get this monkey off their back soon - like, now - they will be hard-pressed to challenge for a play-off spot, let alone the division.

SportsNet West, oh how I miss thee...

Good day all,
I am out here in TO right now, and will be for some time. So far, TO has been quite good, with one notable exception; Flames highlights.

In Ontario, the Leafs are king, the Raptors are in the upper crust, and all others are merely peasants in comparison. Last night, I attempted to find a sports bar where I could watch my hometown boys beat up on the Wild, and it didn’t go well. This however, was due more to logistics than any establishment unwillingness to show the game.

This wasn't the most disappointing part of the night however, (although there were some rather interesting curse words used by yours truly), rather it was when I returned to my hotel and attempted to catch highlights of the game I was unable to see.
SportsNet East was 97% focused on the Maple Leafs snapping their winless streak against Tampa, 2% interested in the latest Raptor News and 1% focused on other sports such as golf and baseball. BASEBALL?!? It's December! Eric Gagne, formerly of the LA Dodgers is now going to be an Astro.

Whoopee friggin do.

I had to tune in to TSN as SportsNet didn't show any highlights at all. Not one.
Why all the complaining you might ask? Why does the fact that SportsNet is catering to an obvious audience instead of out of town travelers matter? Well, in my humble opinion (and my opinion is nothing if not humble*), this is yet another example of the NHL's poor marketing.

As everyone knows, the NHL board of governors recently decided that the schedule is fine the way it is. Actually, a better way of putting that would be that they couldn't decide on a better way of doing things. To me, this is unacceptable, and I would hope that every Canadian hockey fan would agree with me. Calgary doesn't play Ottawa, Montreal or Toronto again for the next two years (if I am not mistaken). Although Canada is a huge country, we have a relatively small number of big cities, and only 6 with NHL franchises. With the number of Canadians that are moving around the country, you have built in rivalries. Case in point, when I attended the Ottawa game, there was at least 2000 fans wearing Flames gear, and those were the folks that were WEARING Flames apparel.

Now, I don't want to treat my audience like idiots, but a rivalry must consist of TWO teams that have a genuine interest in playing one another. When your local sports network covers only one team, it is a symptom of two things;
1. Toronto is the center of the universe
2. The network is catering to the needs of its audience, and since the only thing Ontario cares about is the Leaf's, (sorry Ottawa) there is no need to cover any other games.
In Alberta, depending on where you live, your two favorite teams are;
1. Calgary or Edmonton respectively.
2. Who ever are playing Calgary or Edmonton respectively.

In Calgary, we don't dislike the Oilers, we HATE them. While most Canadian hockey fans were cheering for the Oil in the Stanley Cup finals last year, we giggled and laughed when they failed to bring the cup home. As fans of the NHL, not only do we watch our home town boys, but we also watch the mullets from North Alberta in hopes that we can see them get hammered by opposing teams. Our interest, and therefore our attention are focused on two different teams.

Hopefully the NHL will change its collective minds and allow Canadian teams more of a chance to build a rivalry by playing each other more often.
How long would it take for Calgary Flames fans to rekindle the hatred of les Canadians and vice versa, when prior to a game the NHL floods the screen with Images from 1986 and 1989? Not to mention the obvious marketing that can be found when you have players from Canadian Junior teams going back to their former homes. It may be cheesy, but watch an NFL game and you cannot make it through 3 quarters without seeing one player’s family in the crowd, or hearing about how he played his college ball just down the road. The NFL wouldn't consistently waste time with these if they didn't work, they are that good.

Now I know that I'm bitter ‘cause I had to watch the end of the Leaf’s game instead of all of the Calgary Game, and that I couldn’t see any highlights of Calgary’s massive win on SportsNet East. But…how much better might the NHL be if I was bitter because my hated Canadian rival finally broke their losing streak?

I cannot believe how much I rule.

*Quote graciously lent to me by J.G.

Flames/Wild Preview

Not only do the Flames have a chance to exact revenge for last week's 3-2 S/O loss, they can set a franchise record with their 10th consecutive home victory tonight.

Reasons to be optimistic:

- As Matt mentions, Minnesota's success is somewhat illusory. They have managed only 6 regulation wins en route to their NW division leading 34 points. At some point, one has to think the coin will stop landing on heads for the Wild.

- Calgary is an excellent team at home. The Flames haven't lost in the 'Dome since October. And since Calgary out-shot and out-chanced Minnesota in Minnesota last week, the Flame's probablity of victory is substantially increased this evening (assuming semi-competent officiating of course).

- Kipper has never lost to the Wild on home ice. According to the Flames website, his GAA in 6 Dome games against them is a miniscule 1.37.

- Jarome Iginla. Just Jarome Iginla.

Reasons to be Pessimistic:

- The record setting stuff. Records like this stick around for a reason. Calgary had an opportunity to set a high water mark last year (9 straight wins) but instead shit the bed against a terrible Chicago team at home and lost 5-2.

- More Matt wisdom: the Flames have an impending brutal 6 game road trip. The team may be more worried about that than tonight's contest.

- The injury bug has struck again. Nilson is still sidelined by his tweaked knee, Yelle isn't ready to return and now Warrener and Zyuzin are hurt. In response, Calgary has called up Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano and (surprisingly) Tomi Maki from Omaha. That's a pretty solid chunk of ice-time that will have to be filled by rookies and/or absorbed by vets.

- Pavol Demitra is back from IR and is a Flame killer. In 28 games versus Calgary over his career, Demitra has accumulated 15 goals and 28 points. Ouch.

- Matt is predicting a 2-0 loss. And his ability to accurately divine Flame's outcomes at home is scary good.

- And finally, I will be in attendance. The chances of Calgary winning two in a row with me there are very poor indeed.

Despite the greater number of pessimistic points, I think I'll take a 2-1 Calgary victory tonight. Iginla and Kobasew for the Flames, Demitra for the Wild.

Go Flames!

update - Matt has altered his predcition to a 3-1 Flames win. Add that to the "reasons to me optimistic" list. Thanks for the heads up HG.

Random Thoughts

While I wanted to make some sort of post today, I was unable to think of an overarching theme that would tie my musings together. Therefore you will be treated to me mental flotsam. Enjoy!

• The Flames were pretty much jobbed by the refs in the first period against Minnesota, but were the beneficiaries of 6 PP's of their own before the first intermission versus the Canucks two nights later. Spin world spin.


• Speaking of Saturday's game, Calgary played what was probably their best tilt of the season. Or at least it would have been had they not collapsed into complacency mid-way through the third. Speaking from a purely "entertainment" perspective, however, it made for an interesting finish.


• Matthew Lombardi was an absolute demon against the Canucks. Something has possessed Lombo this season and I hope it's never, ever excorsized.


• Coming on the heels of my own comments regarding Playfair's unfair criticism of the the Juice-Lombo-Kobasew unit, the Calgary Herald ran a story today celebrating the 2nd line's success. Of particular interest is this comment:

  It's not one of those irresponsible tandems that's dangerous at both ends of the ice, either. Since their union a month ago, the line has been on the ice for just one opposition goal.

  This speaks to the effort of the players as well as the success of the coaching staff. I don't have the shift-chart perusal will or abilities of Mudcrutch, but the above stat intimates that Playfair is getting the Juice troika out against relatively soft opposition - 3rd/4th lines, and 2nd/3rd pairing d-men. Keep it up Jim!
  


• Huselius and co. have been so good recently they're starting to catch the attention of some of punditry's heavy hitters. Eric Duhatschek had a story today in the Globe and Mail talking about their contributions. In it, Hat recalls that Huselius was acquired by the Flames from the waiver-wire at about this time last year. Passed over by 29 other teams just 12 months ago, Juice is suddenly a solid and consistent offensive contributor on pace for a 30 goal/55 point season. Wicked.


• The Flames are currently 22nd in the league in terms of GF, with an average of 2.82 GPG. However, over the past 17 contests, Calgary has scored 51 goals - good for a 3.00 GPG figure. That despite the struggling PP (15.1%, 23rd). If only they could get their special teams (and by that, I mean special teams on the road) up to par!


• Dion Phaneuf has quietly crept into the top 5 in the +/- ranking (in terms of d-men) in the league with his +16 number. Granted, he doesn't yet take on the opposition's best players consistently like say, Pronger or Lidstrom...but he's on his way.


• Jarome Iginla has finally cracked the league's top 20 point-getters. However, what's more impressive is Iggy sits currently 2nd to only Vanek and St. Louis with 24 ES points.

And now some Schadenfreude:

• The Edmonton Oilers vaunted offense has thus far managed 2.76 GPG, good for 20th in the league. Course, they have some excuses (Hemsky, Smyth injuries). Nevertheless...HAHA!


• Looks like Andrew Raycroft and the Toronto Maple Leafs are as bad as I'd thought they'd be. After a decent start, Raycroft has fallen to 29th in terms of GAA (3.02) and 33rd in SV% (0.897). The team as a whole has lost 7 straight and is suddenly below the post-season cut-off in the East. And with apologies to the Toronto bloggers that I like, I fully expect them to stay there for the majority of the season.


• Thanks to the Blue Jackets recent 6-2 drubbing of the Senators, Vancouver is now the worst team in the league at scoring goals. Further, their $6 million goaltender is sporting some rather mediocre stats.

Minny Game Day Preview

The title is a not-so-clever play on words meaning this preview will be brief. Busy day today, so I couldn't put my usual half-assed effort in ('bout 1/5th assed effort today I'd say).

Stuff to know going into the game:

- The Wild have been very injured and very bad recently. However, they still have excellent special teams.

- The Flames have won a lot recently, but still need to prove they can get it done away from home. If the road PK and PP continue to falter tonight, they will most certainly lose.

- Iginla is looking for his 300th career goal and 600th career point tonight.

- A Calgary win will tie the Flames with the Wild in the NW Division standings and put them 2 back of the Oilers.

- Derek Boogaard is returning to the line-up for Minny tonight. Brandon Prust is rumored to be suiting up for an injured Marcus Nilson. There may be a David vs. Goliath rumble in the works...

For a much better, much more interesting preview, read Matt's take over at BoA. Notice, also, my Regehr post gets a mention. Im hittin' the big time baby!

Prediction:

3-2 Flames in OT. Iginla, Huselius and Amonte in the extra frame. Go Flames!

Victory Over the Previous Victorious

Ho Hum another Flames home win. What's that, 26 in a row now? I guess it's more like 8, but you get the idea. Calgary is dynamite at the Dome. Now if they could only figure out how to be at least half as good on the road...

What truly made last night notable was the fact that the Flames won with me in attendance. My previous 2 December visits from last season featured come-from-behind victories for Phoenix and LA (it was during that regrettabe period of time where the a 2 goal lead for the Flames pretty much guaranteed they'd lose the game). I also happened to attend probably Calgary's worst home performance this year, the 4-1 San Jose loss. As you can no doubt tell, my expectations were appropriately repressed going into last night's contest.

The boys came through though. To an extent, at least. Neither club played with much fire for the majority of the contest. After the opening goal (scored on the opening shift), Calgary pretty much shut down the Carolina's attack. Which wasn't overly difficult since it looked like the visitors were skating in Oatmeal half the time. Perhaps they were saving their energy for the finals rematch tonight against Edmonton? I certainly hope so at least.

Anyways, as far as Im concerned, the Flames stars of the game were Lombardi, Iginla, Hamrlik and Huselius. Lombardi didn't appear on the scoresheet, but it wasn't from lack of trying. He made Commodore look foolish in the first period by blowing past him in the neutral zone; it's a pity Grahame managed to stop his patented "backhand through the five-hole" move on the ensuing break-away. Lombo also created a dangerous 2on1 later in the game with Kobasew that was broken up by a sly stick from Williams.

As for Iginla, he dominated in the offensive zone corners. There was a particular shift that drew an ovation from the crowd because the 'Cane's defenders were quite simply helpless agianst him. Had Tanguay buried a couple more of his chances, Iggy would have had 4 or 5 point night.

Juice looked like the most dangerous Flame forward for the first half of the game. His stickhandling lead to two glorious opportunities that were diverted through equal parts chance and decent goaltending. And his feed to Hamrlik on the 2nd Flames goal was picture perfect. Speaking of Hammer, not only did he score but he lead all skaters with about 25 minutes of ice. Suddenly Sutter's abandoning Lydman in favor of Hamrlik last year is starting to taste less bitter.

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With the shut-out win, the Flames remain the stingiest team around at 5on5. Thanks to their defensive prowess they now own an impressive +20 ES goal differential . Consider that Anaheim, currently the top team in the league, boasts a +14 (58 GF, 44 GA) at ES while the scoringest group of players in the NHL (Buffalo) are at +21 (74GF, 53GA). Truly elite company.

The special teams still reek and the road play has yet to impress, but one has to think that stuff like that will eventually fall in line. With the emergence of Lombardi and Huselius on the 2nd scoring unit, a resurging Jarome Iginla, a faultless Miikka Kiprusoff and the cohesive team defence, Calgary has all the tools to start climbing the NW division ladder. Especially sinced the Oilers and the Wild are decimated by injury, The Avs are just plain mediocre and the Canucks couldn't score on Philadelphia with Alan Bester in net. The key remains, however, a complete and consistent road effort. The upcoming 6 game roadtrip will determine whether Calgary will take their place among the league's best or remain firmly entrenched among the mediocre.

Next up - the wilting Wild

Carolina vs. Calgary Game Day

Alex and I will be attending the game tonight as part of his birthday celebration. Happy Birthday old man!

You can therefore be assured the Flames will put forth a terrible effort - Calgary's record with me in attendance over the last 2 seasons is fairly poor - 2-3-1. I guess we could hope for a few fights at the very least.

Owing to their residing in the alien world that is the Eastern Conference, I know very little about Carolina heading into tonight's match. I know they got off to a bad start, are having goaltending consistency issues and score a lot. And most of that is secondary, sports-page knowledge.

The rest is stat-sheet perusal:

• Carolina has 33 points and is 5th in the Eastern Conference. They are 1 game over .500 on the road (7-6-2) and are 6-4-0 in their last 10. Calgary is still stuck at 9th in the WC, but have a 9-3-0 record at home and are 7-3-0 in the last 10.


• The Hurricanes have a butt-load of scorers on their roster. They already have two guys with 30 or more points (Rod the Bod and Ray Whitney) and 4 more with 20+ points (Williams, Cole, Staal and Walker in that order). All six players have 10 or more goals on the season, with Staal leading the way at 16. In contrast, no one the Flames has breached the 30 point mark and only 3 players (Iginla, Tanguay and Langkow) have greater than 20 points.
  


• Carolina isn't as adept at keeping the puck out of their own net, however. They are currently 22nd in league in terms of goals against (86), while Calgary trails only Detroit in that department (56). In fact, the Canes have allowed as many ES goals (56) as the Flames have given up total.
  


• Of course, comparisons between the two conferences are rather difficult. As I've noted before, the East attacks and the West defends. As such, the differences between the Flames and the Canes are rather exaggerated.
  


• Scott Cruickshank pointed out in the Herald today that Jarome Iginla is 6th in league in terms of ES points (20). Good to see Calgary's 7 million dollar man putting up elite ESP production.


• Jim Playfair talks about Calgary's second line (Lombo, Juice, Kobasew) in the same Herald piece saying:

  "Sometimes on the road, they play really, really well, then at home they don't play so well. Sometimes at home, they play well . . . It's a line that hasn't found enough consistency at a high end."

  With all due respect Jim - what the hell are you talking about? Personally I think the #2 scoring line has been one of the best out there of late. To back-up my hunch, I looked up the Flame's last 7 gamesheets and low and behold! The 2nd unit has been instrumental in all but 1 of them (LA loss). Combined, Juice, Lombo and Kobasew have 9 goals and 20 points over that time period. That's some solid production, especially considering SHAZAM! has been having trouble putting a puck in the ocean AND Lombo had a goal called back recently. I suppose this might be some sort of coaching/motivational tactic - but I don't really see what more Playfair would want out of the second line (besides some Kobasew scoring, perhaps). Hell, Lombardi is a +14 and 4th on the team in points. Juice is second on the team in goals (9). If Kobasew can actually start finishing, they'll be matching the Iginla / Langkow / Tanguay trio for production. With less ice-time to boot. Geez, Jim, if you want someone to pick on, take a gander at Friesen's pathetic point totals...
  

Without having seen Carolina play, it's hard to know what to expect tonight. Based on stats stuff (and assuming my presence doesn't curse them...again), I say the Flames take this one 3-2. Kipper out-duels Ward and Calgary's strength at ES on home ice proves to be the difference maker. Kobasew, Phaneuf and Tanguay with the goals for the Flames. Williams and Staal for Carolina.

Go Flames!

What's Eating Robyn Regehr?

I've found myself asking this question while watching Flames games recently. Although I expected Regehr to be top dog on the blueline this season, he's looked very much like a 2nd pairing guy to me for weeks now. He fumbles pucks regularly in his own zone. He has trouble making the first pass on the transition. He no longer dominates along the boards or in front of the net...

which is why I was somewhat surprised to see an article in the Herald today actually lauding Regehr's efforts. The piece talks about some of the adjustments that were made earlier in the season in light of the Flame's struggles, including Regehr being paired with Rhett Warrener. It goes on to note that the club has gone 9-3-0 since the switch and the combo is a combined +10 in that time.

The implication, of course, is that the Warrener/Regehr duo had a hand in turning the Flame's fortunes around. Unforutnately, though, correlation does not always equal causation. I looked over Regehr's (other) numbers over the period of games mentioned in the article, and they are hardly flattering:

Starting at the Columbus shoot-out loss and stretching to the recent win over the Jackets, Regehr has been on the ice for 9 PP GA and 5 ES GA. While fourteen goals in a 13 game span doesn't seem terrible on the face of it, consider Calgary only gave up 23 goals total over that duration. Meaning Regehr was on the ice for close to 61% of the goals against. In fact, Regehr was a -1 in terms of goals for/against, despite the fact that Calgary outscored their opponents 36-23 during that period.

Some can point to the fact that Regehr is frequently employed on the PK (and rarely on the PP) to explain the difference. Course, he started the year off on the PP and played himself off of it by being completely ineffective. Further, Regehr's less than stellar work with a man down probably goes a long way to explaining the Flames still terrible PK figure of 79.1%, which is good for 28th best in the league.

Nothing symbolizes Regehr's struggles more than the Columbus goal on Friday. During the PK, Regehr gathers the puck up near the Flame's blueline and fumbles with it rather than drifting it down the ice (even though the line was in desperate need of change). Thanks to his bumbling, the puck barely pierces the neutral zone, resulting in a quick transition for the Jackets and a hurried line change for the Flames. The BJ's PP unit swiftly bears down on the scrambling Calgary PK unit and quickly thereafter scores their only goal of the game. All caused by the simplest of plays gone wrong thanks to, what should be, the Flames #1 defenseman.

There have been other recent examples of Regehr's struggles. The Wolski goal in the 5-2 win over Colorado was another simple play needlessly bungled. On the Tuomo Ruutu goal versus Chicago, Regehr lost the puck in his skates and then failed to take Ruutu who was able to spoil Kipper's shut-out bid with a sudden, rising backhand. This is the kind of stuff I expect out of Ference or Zyuzin. Not Robyn Regehr.

To clarify, I dont want to throw the big guy under the bus. He hasn't been terrible by any stretch - just not good by Regehrian standards. The problem I see is Regehr's bread and butter is shutting down the opposition - he doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table - so when the Bad Guys are scoring the bulk of their goals (61%) with him on the ice, there's something wrong...

Identifying that something is another task altogether. The Loss of Leopold as a defense partner and/or a nagging injury seem to be the most plausible explanations. Regehr himself points to the vast differences between his last few partners in the linked article. Further, it's been suggested by some (well...me) that the Downey hit rattled Regehr psychologically. He's seemed far more pensive, unsure of himself and less physical since that event. In fact, the only other Regehr check I can remember over the last month or so was the plastering of Cleary when Detroit came to town. Otherwise it's been a relatively quiet and demure Robyn Regehr patrolling the left-hand side...

Whatever the cause, here's hoping he turns it around soon. A healthy and effective Regehr would go a long way to curing the Flames ailing penalty kill, which would, in turn, propel the Flames further up the conference standings.

Blue Jacket Preview

Calgary faces the Hitchcockian Blue Jackets tonight, who are an unimpressive 1-2-0 under their new taskmaster.

While I agree with the Hat that Hitchcock has the ability to turn things around in Ohio, I don't think the BJ's are anything to fear just yet. They are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games and 2-8-o away from home. They have the worst GF mark in the league (49), despite boasting some relatively impressive young talent in Zherdev, Nash, Brule and Klesla. And although their roster also includes guys like Segei Federov, Anson Carter and Freddy Modin, the team's top point getter is actually David Vyborny, who boasts 4 goals and 14 assists for 18 points. Speaking of Carter, he's doing everything in his power to convince the hockey world that his career season last year had more to do with playing on a line with the Sedin twins in Vancouver and little or nothing to do with his own ability. So far this season he has 3 goals and 7 points - less than Duvie Westcott. That's approaching Friesen-type suckage.

Owing to their inability to score, almost no one on the Blue Jacket's roster is a plus player. The leader in that category is, oddly, ex-Flame-cast-off Anders Eriksson with +3. Two other nobodies are in the black (Hartigan, Tollefson) while Adam Foote, with a -16 mark, brings up the rear. Rick Nash, the youngest guy to win a Rocket Richard trophy, has all of 7 goals so far this year is a -6. Such is the state of the car wreck in Columbus.

Course, Calgary is one of the few teams Columbus has beaten this year. In fact, it was the 5-4 S/O defeat that ignited the Flames 6 game winning streak back at the start of November. Anyone who watched the contest knows that 2 goats - Calgary's PK and the rustiness of Jamie McLennan - handed the BJ's the game. Even then, it took many, many rounds in the shoot-out to come to the decision.

This time around, Columbus will be facing Miikka Kiprusoff and a Flames team that is far more adept at special teams (since the game's at the Dome, of course). In their last 4 home victories, Calgary has scored 8 PPG's while only allowing 2 PPG's against.

I think it's fair to expect a Calgary win tonight. The BJ's have the worst record in the league, are terrible on the road and can't score to save their lives. The Flames are tops at preventing goals at ES and have beaten the likes of Anaheim, Dallas, Detroit and Colorado at home recently. Expect at least a 2 goal margin this evening.

As for myself, Im going with a 3 goal victory:

Flames - 4, Blue Jackets - 1. Lombardi, Tanguay, Kobasew and Lundmark for the Flames. Zherdev for the Jackets.

Go Flames!

Visit Army of Ohio for a view from the other side.

Poll Time!

I think it is that time again where I do another poll to see who you think will win tonights game. Here we go!

Based solely on the hotness of the model, which team will win tonights game?
	Girl #1 Calgary (left)
	Thing #2 Columbus (right)
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