Get out the big red FAIL stamp...

There's lots of reasons to blog about sports: arrogance, geekdom, too much free time, a wish to argue endlessly with anonymous stangers. Course, there's also the invaluable opportunity to record your thoughts in order to declare "I told you so!" later. As such, a pause in the Tanguay navel gazing to pat myself on the back.

Back when it occurred, I (along with countless others, lets be frank) declared the Raycroft for Rask deal orchestrated by the erstwhile Toronto GM to be a terrible trade. I caught some flack for that analysis in the comments section.

Well, after a couple of seasons of total, ass-suckingly bad goaltending, Raycroft was placed on waivers by the Leafs on Tuesday. Chances are he'll either be bought out or sent to the farm. Either way, I think we can safely say we've seen the last of the former Calder trophy winner in the NHL.

Stylish. SlapShot. Awsome.

Submitted without comment. Puck Daddy found that one.

Tanguay - a few last thoughts

There are some terrific pieces out there on the departure of Alex Tanguay and it's effects on the Flames roster. Im not going to get into that here, as it's obviously been handled elsewhere. Here's whats rattling around in my skull in the aftermath.

- While, in effect, Tanguay was dealt for Cammalleri, the truth of the matter is Tanguay was actually dealt for a 25th overall pick (while Cammalleri was had for the 17th choice). This is an important distinction to keep in mind. Under slightly different circumstances, the Flames could have left the draft with both on the roster, an outcome that would have been much more preferable - particularly considering the fact that Cammalleri is a more apt replacement for the departing Kristian Huselius.

- The trade seems palatable if one considers the constraints under which Sutter was working: a high-priced player coming off a "poor" season with a NTC isn't the easiest piece to deal. When one considers that the Flames moved their 2nd best ES forward for futures and a bit of cap-space, it becomes a little more grim.

- Sutter has been a mix of good and bad since he started managing the Flames in 04. Or, to be more precise, brutal and brilliant. I see the Tanguay trade - or rather the need for Tanguay to be traded - as disturbing because it smacks of bad decisions bleeding into good ones. It's executive scrambling, as it were. Tanguay was a checker on this club last year because the forward ranks were so thin, despite a relatively robust roster budget. His $5M contract became cap-space fodder because that robust budget is bloated with poor value players. This isn't the Senators dealing Havlat because they simply have too many good players to fit under the cap...the Flames, in direct contrast, are in desperate need of top 6 forwards.

No, this is Calgary moving Tanguay because he was crowded out by the suck. Bad decisions are starting to collect and lay idle on this team; and as they pile up and stagnate, their putrescence is beginning to poison the well, drip by corrupting drip. Dealing good money before bad is a poor management, at least in the long-term. Sutter has the summer to complete the scramble and plug the holes. He may still purge the likes of Warrener and co. However, considering the UFA pool depth, the lack of viable prospects in the Flames system and relatively inflexible cap position, it's a good bet the Flames will be a worse club heading into the season this October.

Rest of the draft

2nd round (48th): Mitch Wahl - C - Spokane Chiefs

07/08 - 67GP, 20G 53A 73PTS

Wahl placed second on his club in terms of points during the regular season. Only 4 of goals came on the PP and he was a very healthy +33. From his scouting report:

NHL Central Scouting's Blair MacDonald

"Mitch is a smaller, skilled player with a good skating and playmaking ability. He controls and dishes the puck well, but needs to show more desire to enter into traffic and to battle around the net. He has good puck awareness and is used effectively on the penalty kill."

Spokane Chiefs head coach Bill Peters

"Mitch is starting to round into a complete player. In his draft year, he is 20th in the WHL in scoring, but more impressive to me is he is seventh in the WHL in plus-minus. That means, as a 17-year-old centerman, he is playing against other team's number one lines night in, night out. He is a playmaking center who looks to get his wingers the puck and he has very good on-ice vision and creativity."

Sounds like a fairly well-rounded guy already.

3rd round (78th): Lance Bouma - C - Vancouver Giants

07/08 - 71GP, 12G 23A 35PTS

Another Alberta boy from WHL. And another center. Go figure. Bouma managed just 35 points, good for 8th on his team (two defenseman garnered more points than him). He looks more like a checking forward than anything. From his scouting report:

NHL Central Scouting's Blair MacDonald

"Lance has shown the ability to use his speed from the outside to drive to the net. He plays a strong positional game – up and down his wing and works well in the corners; he is at his best when he plays an aggressive style of game and is finishing his checks. He plays the type of game that can make him a good pro player – keeps it simple and works hard on the forecheck and backcheck. He needs to improve on his offensive game and consistency from game-to-game."

Sounds like a third-round Eric Nystrom. It'd be nice to know who he was playing against at even-strength.

4th Round (108th): Nick Larson - LW - Waterloo

07/08 - 57GP, 19G 19A 38PTS

Big, American winger will be heading to Notre Dame next year. Let's hope he develops into something because the organizations list of potential wingers is rather deplorable. from his scouting report:

"Nick plays an aggressive, physical game and he plays in all situations. He has excellent puck pursuit and he's hard to control in front of the net. He plays on Waterloo's top line and scored consistently down the stretch – he provided the physical game on his line. Overall, I see a lot of potential and upside in this kid."

4th Round (114th): TJ Brodie - D - Saginaw Spirit

07/08 - 68GP, 4G 26A 30PTS

Brodie is a 6', 170 pound defender from the OHL. He was the highest scoring defenseman for the Spirit during the regular season and added another 3 assists in 4 games during the play-offs. I couldn't track down a scouting report for him but judging from his numbers and size, he looks like one o' those "puck-moving" defenders.

5th round - Traded to Montreal in Tanguay deal.

6th round (168th): Ryley Grantham - C - Moose Jaw Warriors

07/08 - 66GP, 9G 10A 19PTS

Another center and, yes, another Western Canadian kid playing in the dub. Grantham looks like a throw-away pick by the Flames scouting staff. He's 2 years older than the majority of his draft cohort (born 1988), but only managed 19 points in the WHL last year. His only notable stat was his 163 PIM. Enforcer for the farm?

7th round (198th): Alexander Deilert - D - Djurgarden U20

The Flames lone international choice comes in the final round with Alex Deilert. The 5'11", 176 pound blueliner has played with Sweden's international U16-U19 teams. Reminds me of the Per Jonsson pick.

Seven choices in total. Mostly big forwards and mostly from the WHL. No surprises here, apart from the lack of wingers chosen.

Introducing Mike Cammalleri

Mike Cammalleri is now a Calgary Flame. Here's what I know about him:

The Good - Fast, agile, with a hard and accurate shot. Effective PP player, who can legitimately play the point (unlike Tanguay). Young, with potential to score 30+ goals every year. Already has an 80 point season under his belt.

The Bad - Small, somewhat soft and tends to get scored on at ES. Bad year last season, due in part to injury.

His ES advanced stats from 07/08:

-0/04 QUALCOMP (only Nagy and Armstrong saw softer competition)
1.91 ESP/60 (pretty pedestrian, but actually better than Kopitar)
2.60 GFON/60 (middling)
3.56 GAON/60 (worst on the team)
-14 ES +/- (only Handzus was worse in terms of forwards)
-0.4 CORSI (meh)

Mike was one of the hottest goal-scorers at the start of last season before being injured. he struggled to regain that form upon returning and ended up battling injury and consistency issues all year.

Cammalleri has one more season left on his 3.35M/contract and it was apparent to Kings management that he would be testing free agency at the conclusion of his contract, thus the impetus to move him.

I dont quite know where Cammalleri lands on the Flames depth chart. Considering the pre-ponderance of centers, I would expect him to move to the LW and play with either Langkow/Iginla or Lombardi/? (Moss?) at ES and get some serious PP time otherwise. He won't be killing penalties and he won't be checking tough competition like Tanguay was with Conroy and Nolan last year.

Im still absorbing the Flames moves and draft picks, so further analysis will be forth-coming. For now, welcome to the Flames Mike!

Draft day news tracker

The annual entry draft has become something of a secondary trade deadline as clubs seek to shed salary and garner picks prior to making their selections. This year I expect there to be some frenetic activity due to the purported depth of talent.

And so, without further ado:

- St. Louis acquires the usurped Chris Mason from Nashville. Mason was the revelation that allowed the Preds to deal Vokoun last summer...a revelation that quickly turned into a regret when he proved incapable of handling the starters job last season. He signed a shiny new $3M/year contract that was starting look like a miserable burden, so it's no surprise he's been dealt. For the Blues, I assume they want Mason to push Legace.

- Toronto acquires Jamal Mayers from the Blues for a 3rd rounder. I always liked Mayers when I've seen him play, so not sure what the justification for this move is from a St. Louis perspective. As for the Leafs, they expunged Kilger and Belak last Feb so maybe they're looking to add some muscle.

- Three other guys I expect to be traded today: Olli Jokinen, Patrick Marleau and Jarret Stoll.

- Last night, Pierre McGuire had the Flames taking Joe Colborne in his mock draft. *puke*

- Dan Ellis has been signed to a two year, 3.5M contract while Ray Emery has been put on waivers (no surprises here). Ellis is a bit of a gamble, a la Chris Mason (ironically) but he did put up stellar numbers last year. Emery, on the other hand, is a pariah and I don't expect anyone to claim him. Chances are he'll be bought out.

- Some news on this supposed "Malkin to the KHL" rumor. I really don't see this happening.

- The Flyers back-up the truck for pending RFA Jeff Carter. I like what I've seen from Carter in the past and I think he'll probably live up to the 5M/year figure in the near future.

Philadelphia is in quite the cap-pickle as a result of this new contract, however. Look for them to dump some contracts (Hartnell or Upshall) and "encourage" Hatcher to retire this summer.

- Well, Sutter's off and running before the first pick drops. He flips the Flames first rounder to LA for Cammelleri. As usual, no one saw it coming. I have no in depth take on the deal yet, as Im too stunned.

- The running rumor now is that Tanguay is going to Montreal for the Habs 25th choice overall. Personally, I hate that move (how is Cammy worth a 17th, but Tangs is worth a 25th?), but it hasn't been made official yet. If true, I hope there's more to that.

- and now, in a stunning move, Florida deals Jokinen to Phoenix for Ballard+Boyton+49th pick!! Im stunned that that's all they could get for Jokinen (Ballards good, but otherwise that's trash).

- Word comes down - Tanguay and the Flames 5th rounder go to Montreal for the Habs 25th pick this year and their 2nd rounder next season.

I think that's awful an swap, but clearly Sutter is dumping salary. Still - ugh - the Flames are a worse club today than they were yesterday.

- NYI deals the 5th overall to the Leafs for their 7th overall. Meh.

- CLB deals the 19th overall and a 3rd rounder for RJ Umberger and a 4th. That's right...Umberger got a higher pick than Tanguay. Ugh.

- The Islanders trade down again, swapping the 7th for the 9th with Nashville. They also get a 2nd or 3rd rounder in the process.

- LA swaps the 12th for Buffalos 13th and their 3rd rounder in 2009. Odd move by Buffalo, unless they were certain LAK were going to take their player (Myers).

- Nashville trades the 15th pick to Ottawa for #18 and a 2009 3rd rounder. Murray also announces the extension of Chris Kelly (4 years, 2M+ per year). Not too shabby.

- Lou Lam deals pick #21 to WAS for 23 and 54. Nice move for both teams, particularly the Caps who had three 2nd rounders.

- The Oil picks Jordan Eberle @ 22. Seems like a decent choice at that point in the draft.

- Jersey moves down again, swapping picks with Minny (23 for 24) and a 3rd rounder.

- And of course, Tedenby goes at 24 to NJ. Fuckfuckfuck.

- Flames take Greg Nemisz at 25. I've heard good things, but am fairly unfamiliar. Apparently big, hard to move and not a very good skater. Add another center to the pile.

- And there goes Ennis at 26. I managed to guess the players that would be drafted around the Flames.

- Philly picks up Eminger from WAS for the 26th pick. The Flyers add to their defense and cap issues.

- Phoenix picks up Anaheims #28 pick for a couple 2nd rounders. Coyotes have been surprisingly aggressive today.

- That's about it for the first round. I'll log in with my thoughts on the Flames and the latter round stuff tomorrow or Sunday.

The draft - a few final things

- ESPN's mock draft has Calgary picking the Regina Pats Jordan Eberle. The Regina native is a center that has put up 70 goals in his first two seasons in the dub, so it's not a bad choice. Here's a little blurb on him:

Jordan Eberle possesses hockey sense and skill that cannot be taught. Both intelligent and creative, he stands head and shoulders above most of the Pats’ forwards and won numerous accolades for his play as a 17-year old. Can make plays out of almost nothing and sees the ice as well as anyone in the WHL.

I skipped over Eberle in my own musings because the Flames have pivots coming out the ass (Langkow, Lomabrdi, Boyd, Backlund) and are in desperate need of skill on the wings at both the NHL and AHL levels. However, if Eberle is still around at 17 and seems like "the best player available", it's not ridiculous to think the Flames will grab him, logjam be damned.

- Sutter has almost never made a major trade at the trade deadline. He has, however, been very active during draft day, twice dealing for major players (Tanguay, Aucoin) and almost always making other minor swaps for futures. With the Flames desperately needing to unload some salary and lacking a 2nd rounder, expect Sutter to try to deal an established NHLer for a pick or two. My guess is, at least one of Eriksson, Primeau or Nilsson will be someone else's property come Sunday. Potential partners include:

- LA: 15 (!) picks means they have futures to spare.
- WAS: The caps are flush with second rounders and could prove amenable to parting with one of them.
- CAR: The Hurricanes have cap room and need NHL defensemen in the worst way - even defensemen as crappy as Eriksson.

- How great is it that the Edmonton Oilers only have 5 picks in this deep draft?? Thank you Kevin Lowe (and Dustin Penner).

Flames Draft Preview

"It's an old line but we want a top six forward. We want a guy who can put up offensive numbers ... We want to take the best player available. We want to take an offensive forward."

So says Flames head Scout Tod Button. In an earlier interview this year, Sutter was explicit in his intentions to pursue forwards in the draft before defensemen or goalies ("we don't need any more goalies"). Ironically, the current draft class seems heavy with defenders: Of the 20 top ranked North American and international skaters (10 NA, 10 IN), almost half are blueliners. So the the Flames are going fishing for forwards in defensemen rich waters...

We can further narrow down the field by looking at the organizations previous habits. As mentioned in the retrospective below, the Flames have made 40 picks with Sutter at the Helm. Here's a Lowetide-like break-down of where those picks have come from:

WHL - 16
OHL - 9
QMJHL - 3
NCAA - 1
BCHL/USHL/USHS/Minn/OPJHL - 6
Swe - 3
Swiss - 1
Fin - 1

Clearly, the CHL dominates the Flames choices (70%), with the WHL unsurprisingly being the clear favorite (40%). Calgary has only made 5 picks outside of North America in 5 years (12.5%), with three of those coming out of Sweden (and none out of Russia).

Flames 2008 draft order:

* 1st Round - 17th Pick
* 2nd Round - None (dealt to LA for Conroy)
* 3rd Round - 78th pick
* 3rd Round - 108th pick
* 4th Round - 114th pick (from Washington, acquired in the Stuart trade)
* 5th Round - 138th pick
* 6th round - 168th pick
* 7th round - 198th pick

Flames have 7 choices this year, so Sutter may be less keen on trading down in the first round to acquire more picks later on. Further, he's been vocal in the media lately about how "picking in the 20's" makes drafting more difficult. Chances are, Sutter hangs onto #17 (unless a very good deal comes along).

So, assuming:

- Sutter keeps his first rounder
- Picks according to habit (Canada, WHL, OHL, QMJHL, SWE)
- Pursues a forward and,
- Pursues a winger over a centerman (the organization is really thin on the wings)

This is who we can reasonably expect the organization to target...

Mikkel Boedeker - LW - OHL

07/08 - 62 GP, 29G 44A 73PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Although he is 5'11", he plays low to the ice and as a result is a real solid player. This Team Denmark product is a versatile player for the Kitchener Rangers and that is what he is going to be for his NHL team. He quarterbacks the power-play as a forward from the point for the Rangers and does an effective job.

A consensus top 10 pick. It's doubtful he'll fall into Calgary's range.

Tyler Ennis - LW - WHL

07/08 - 70 GP, 43G 48A 91PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Tyler is a quick, water-bug-type player. He scoots up and down the ice and can turn on a dime. He can drive wide on a defenceman who is unaware or a little slow. Tyler may be one of the best pure offensive players in the entire draft.

Ennis put up big numbers last year, but is rather small (5'8", 170 pounds) which drops his ranking around the late 20's and early 30's. He'll probably be available at 17.

Mattias Tedenby - LW - HV71 (SWE)

07/08 - 23GP, 3G 3A 6PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Mattias is excellent on every shift. He has outstanding speed, stick work and work ethic. He is small but fearless - he takes hits and always comes back. He creates scoring chances with his outstanding skating and is very difficult to stop when he is at full speed. He has excellent balance and quick, smooth hands, but needs to improve on his defensive awareness.

Again, another small, fast player (5'9", 165 pounds) with offensive upside who might be around when the Flames take the stage. I like phrases such as "fearless", "outstanding skating" and "difficult to stop".

Joe Colborne - LW - AJHL

07/08 - 55GP, 33G 57A 90PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Very rangy with his stick; he dishes the puck well and has really good on-ice awareness. If he can get his skating a little more energetic, he'll be a big strong player down the middle. When he is at his best he is a strategic player.

Colborne is a huge Western Canadian kid (6'5", 190 pounds) and might just be the odds-on favorite to be a Flames pick. Personally, I dont like him. Kris Chucko has really soured me on picking raw talents who put up nice numbers in second rate leagues. I've also heard things like "soft", "mediocre skating" and "project" associated with this guy. To me, it looks like those nice counting numbers and "projectable frame" are turning him into a draft day jeans model.

Matthew Calvert - LW - WHL

07/08 - 72GP, 24G 40A 64PTS

Calvert is another in a long line of diminutive, offensive LWers in this draft. He scored at nearly a point per game pace as a rookie for Brandon last year. He's generally ranked in the high 20's amongst NA skaters, again partially due to his size (5' 9", 175 pounds). He's more of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but could be on the Flames radar in the first round if some of their other choices are gone (and since they don't own a 2nd rounder currently).

Jared Staal - RW - OHL

07/08 - 60GP, 21G 28A 49PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: With the great Staal family reputation and the high expectations brought on by his brothers, Jared is coming into his own -- he's just growing into his 'big Staal body', which is very similar to that of his brothers. He comes off the wing with the desire to go to the net.

The reports about the youngest Staal are mixed at best. He put up mediocre numbers in the OHL and tested poorly at the NHL combine recently. It's said he has top-notch skill, but lacks motivation to succeed. As of now, most scouts put him in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I can see Sutter being tempted by Staal's pedigree, however. The Flames might just take a chance on the baby Staal if some of their other targets fall through.

WILD CARD:

Kyle Beach - C - WHL

07/08 - 60 GP, 27G 33A 60PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: One of the top forwards in this year's draft and is probably the most competitive – from the blue line in there is no one that competes like him. He has good scoring skills and a very accurate shot, and from the blue line in, once he gets the puck, he almost owns it.

Beach may fall to the Flames due to injury concerns (concussion problems last year) and rumors of attitude problems. He's ranked all over the board, with some considering him a top 10 choice while others have him in the 20s (or worse). Although he's a center, he hits a lot of Sutters sweet-spots: big (6'3", 203 pounds), mean, highly competitive, born in Western Canada and plays in the WHL. Not to mention "potentially undervalued due to injury", which is a well the club has gone to twice before in the first round (Backlund, Pelech). If Beach is still on the board at 17, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Flames call his name.

EDIT - Jean Lefebvre has a nice draft article in the Herald today. Some highlights:

- Sutter told the media mob Monday morning at the Saddledome, "but we won't be in that market. We think on defence, with the guys that we have (including long-term signees Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr) and the kids that we've drafted (most notably Matt Pelech and John Negrin) . . . if it was a saw-off between a defenceman and a forward, we wouldn't take the defenceman. The chances are, if we stayed at 17, we'd take a forward there."

"Just looking back," he said, "the highest we picked was 24th other than my first year (2003) with Dion (Phaneuf). That in itself is significant. Seven spots up and with this being, I think, probably the best draft since Phaneuf's year in terms of the depth of it all. I like that pick. It's really hard to tell who falls there because there are so many good defencemen who'll be in the top 10, and probably three or four centremen, too. It's hard to see how that next group is going to shake out."

The funny thing about Sutter's lamentations on this issue is the fact that he has traded down in the first round more than once: 2007 (Backlund), 2005 (Pelech) and 2004 (Chucko).

- On the team's June work since Sutter became general manager in 2003: "We got Dion at nine (in '03), but I would have liked that draft to be stronger for us." Only three players chosen five years ago -- Tim Ramholt, Cam Cunning and Ryan Donally -- are still with the organization, and none is considered a significant prospect. "After that, I'm quite happy."

- On whether Mikael Backlund, Calgary's top choice a year ago, will play in the NHL this coming season: "Based on skill, he could, But he's 19 years and he'd have to play in our top group. He'll either play in the NHL or he'll play in Sweden.

- If you're into reading between the lines, you may want to consider this Sutter statement: "I think there's a few kids that are in Western Canada who fall to where we are (in the first-round order). Not necessarily in the Western league, but who are from out here that I'm comfortable with."

The prime prospects who best fit that description are Joe Colborne and David Toews.

- On potential changes to the Flames' scouting operations: "We look at it every year. If there's one impact that the (expiry of the) European agreement has is where your scouts are over there. Scandinavia is probably where the base of your staff should be overseas." (translation: more focus in Sweden).

The Draft, the Flames and Sutter

There's been some decent stories in the local media recently relating to the upcoming (and previous) entry drafts. Here's my own humble contribution in that same vein...

The Calgary Franchise is now 5 years removed from the onset of the Darryl Sutter regime. Given that it takes about 5 years to evaluate draft performance, I figure it's a good time to look over the Flames drafting record since Sutter took office.

2003:

9th pick - Dion Phaneuf - 243GP
39th pick - Tim Ramholt - 1 GP
97th pick - Ryan Donally
112th pick - Jamie Tardif
143rd pick - Greg Moore
173rd pick - Tyler Johnson
206th pick - Thomas Bellamere
240th pick - Cam Cunning
270th pick - Kevin Harvey

The inclusion of Dion Phaneuf makes palatable what would otherwise be a disastrous year at the table. Of the 9 players chosen, only two have played in the big league, and that's generously counting Tim Ramholt's single shift. Only Phaneuf, Ramholt, Donnally and Cunning are still Flames property, with Cunning and Ramholt making some contributions at the AHL level for Omaha recently (Donally played for the Las Vegas Wranglers in the ECHL last season). Chances are, none of them will regularly skate for the Flames (or anyone else in the NHL for that matter).

Moore, Tardif and Johnson all plied their trade in the AHL for other franchises last year while guys like Bellamere and Harvey no longer play hockey competitively. Basically, the Flames hit a homerun with the first swing of the bat in 2003 and then proceeded to ground out the rest of the way. What's perhaps most disappointing about their lack of success is the relatively good draft position, with 2003 marking the best position (9th) the organization has enjoyed during Sutter's tenure.

2004:

24th pick - Kris Chucko
70th pick - Brandon Prust - 10 GP
98th pick - Dustin Boyd - 61 GP
118th pick - Aki Seitsonen
121st pick - Kris Hogg
173rd pick - Adam Pardy
182nd pick - Fred Wikner
200th pick - Matt Schneider
213th pick - Jimmy Spratt
279th pick - Adam Cracknell

This was a quantity rather than quality draft. Calgary had 10 picks but only one of them was inside the top 69 choices - and the club wasted it on Kris Chucko. Like the previous draft, most of the guys are AHL (or worse) fodder. The only possible exceptions are Dustin Boyd, who likely has the biggest upside of the bunch (20 goal, 2nd line center sound about right?), and Adam Pardy, who was recently mentioned by some of the muck-e-mucks as a youngster knocking on the door. Prust has also played at the NHL level, but a lot of the reports and stats from the farm indicate his development has basically stalled at "injury call-up". If he ever makes the Flames full-time (large "if"), it's unlikely he'll progress much past 4th line duties. As things stand currently, it looks like the Flames garnered just one NHL player out of 10 choices from this batch.

2005:

26th pick - Matt Pelech
69th pick - Gord Baldwin
74th pick - Dan Ryder
111th pick - JD Watt
128th pick - Kevin Lalande
158th pick - Matt Keetley - 1 GP
179th pick - Brett Sutter
221st pick - Myles Rumsey

At 3 years out, a draft becomes harder to grade simply because all of the guys in question are still young and trying to establish themselves as professional players. None of them have played in the NHL yet (excusing Matt Keetley's cup of coffee). Based on what I've seen and heard, Matt Pelech and the aforementioned Keetley may be the only guys with a shot at cracking the bigs, particularly since Daniel Ryder decided to take his ball and go home last summer. Watt is a shit-disturber in the Downie/Carcillo mold, although he has considerably less actual hockey-skill than those guys. He scored more than 30 goals a couple years ago for Vancouver in the WHL but has done little since, even as an overager on the Rebels/Pats last season. I haven't seen him play much, but his numbers are hardly encouraging. He is, however, one of the kids Sutter signed to a big-league contract, so maybe there's something there.

Brett Sutter, Darryl's son, made the AHL club last year and struggled to keep his head above water. I have no idea if he has NHL potential, although his stats suggest a 4th line/grinder type ceiling should he ever make the leap.

Again, it's hard to say, but there doesn't seem to be much here. I think what I find most surprising about this draft, though, is the org's decision to use 2 of the 8 picks on goalies.

Were I forced to grade this draft right now, I'd have to go with "poor", again. Pelech was an off-the-board pick at the time, a guy who had fallen during his draft year due to injuries. While I applaud Sutter and co. for seeking out undervalued guys at the bottom end of the rotation, the truth of the matter is they didn't do a very good job of it. Currently, there are more than 30 players that were chosen after Pelech that have played in the NHL: some of them have gotten a cup of coffee while others are already making contributions (Matt Niskanen, ME Vlasic, Paul Statsny, Kris Letang, Kris Russel, Jared Boll, Sergei Kostitsyn, Kyle Cumiskey). There's still a lot of time left for Pelech to step up, however.

2006:

26th pick - Leland Irving
87th pick - John Armstrong
89th pick - Aaron Marvin
118th pick - Hugo Carpentier
149th pick - Jusso Puustinen
179th pick - Jordan Fulton
187th pick - Devin DiDiomete
209th pick - Per Johnsson

Two years out and we're basically reading tea leaves at this point. Most of these guys are still kids and are at the tail-end of their junior/college careers. Irving enjoyed a large portion of success at the WHL level and is a lock to make the Omaha squad this upcoming season. His numbers and pedigree suggest NHL upside, but who the hell knows with goalies sometimes.

The rest of the 2006 cohort is a total grab-bag. None are guarantees to make the bigs or even challenge for a job. Jusso Puustinen led his WHL club in scoring this past season, but has since fled back to Finland. The Flames declined to offer him a contract and have lost his rights as a result. DiDiomete, Fulton, Carpentier and Armstrong are all middling talents who will need some combination of a tireless work ethic, favorable circumstances and a big step forward to become NHL players in the distant future. Aaron Marvin is said to have some offensive upside, but if or whether that translates beyond anything more than the HS level remains to be seen.

Grading this draft is obviously difficult, but, as it stands now, it doesn't look like Calgary managed anything more than a single or double with this go-round (depending on how Irving does) - if that. Probably the best Flames fans can hope for from any of these skaters is a "David Moss" type player..and that's 3 to 5 years down the road.

2007:

24th pick - Mikael Backlund
70th pick - John Negrin
116th pick - Keith Aulie
143rd pick - Mickey Renaud
186th pick - CJ Severyn

Like Pelech, Backlund was another player that fell during his draft year due to injury. Sutter originally had the 17th pick, but chose to deal down in exchange for more picks later. He grabbed Backlund with the 24th choice and the early returns on that gamble are, happily, encouraging. Speaking of under-valued, John Negrin was another injury-felled player snagged by the Flames, and he had a whale of year for the Kootney Ice last season. Ironically, the Flames may have hit a couple of doubles in this draft, despite the relatively small number of picks (although it's way too early to say so definitively).

As his tenure as the Flames GM has matured, Sutter has made a habit of:

1.) trading away later picks (2nd, 3rd rounders, etc) for established players (Tanguay, Conroy, Lundmark, Hale) and
2.) Trading down in the first round to re-coup those picks.

The results have been...mixed to date. Of the 40 choices the organization has made under Sutter's direction, only 2 (!) have played more than 60 NHL games (Phaneuf and Boyd), with only perhaps 5 more with a good chance to crack the bigs and contribute at some point in the future (by my own subjective perceptions, at least): Pardy, Pelech, Backlund, Irving and Negrin. The Sutter-helmed Flames knocked one out of the park with their very first pick, but have failed to acquire anything near that quality of player since. In fact, there seems to be a dearth of NHL-caliber players period, let alone any of the star variety.

While the prior regimes (rightly) get some flack for the Flames lack of home-grown talent, the current administration is equally to blame for the clubs dearth of cheap, entry-level players. Of the youngins that skated for the Flames last season (Moss, Boyd, Nystrom, Phaneuf), only two were Sutter picks/under the age of 25, with one of those (Phaneuf) playing the final year of his entry-level deal.

Of impending relevance is the fact that there are precious few youngsters looking to step in and fill some of the (gaping) roster holes this coming September, with only Van Der Gulik (also not a Sutter-era pick), Pardy and maybe Pelech or Prust pressing to be replacement level skaters at the bottom-end of the roster.

Im no expert on prospects and haven't seen most of these guys play, so none of this gospel. In addition, we're still several years away from really learning the true success rates for any of the 2005 drafts or later. However, from where I stand currently and with all the information available to me -- it's probably fair to say Im not bullish on the Flames draft record under Sutter thus far.

Im sure he'll remain the voice of the PPV

The Fan960 has been reporting recently that Roger Millions is being replaced by Peter Loubardias for Sportsnet Flames telecasts next season.

It's kind of shame, really. Millions was a homer and he had his, err, idiosyncrasies but he was our homer. I think the two worst parts of losing Roger, however, may be:

1.) The abolition of the Roger Millions Drinking Game.

2.) Having to hear Loubardias call goals all year ("He sceeeeyoooorres!").

You Gotta Be Jokin(en)

This comes your way via an email from my friend and sometimes blog-contributor, Chunky Moose:

The Vancower Canucks’ offer notwithstanding, it looks like the Flames have a deal in place to bring heralded Finnish centerman, Olli Jokinen, to the Calgary Flames.

In this 5-player deal (Flames 3, Panthers 2), we would send Alex Tanguay and parts heading the other way. Why would Tanguay waive his NTC to go to FLA you ask? Well, apparently #40 does not like living under the regime of Keenan.

If you are concerned about the lack of news regarding the Langkow signing, apparently word from the inside (and all other CBA PhD’s) is that it has to do with tagging room. His contract is unaffordable until July 1 due to this mysterious “tagging room”, but it should be announced on C-day.

I won’t urinate on the post by giving it a [C4] or something ridiculous like that, but the sources are reliable and from what I hear it will be fairly soon.

However seriously you take the rumor (which seems to crop up every six months), it's an interesting talking point for this dull latent period between the play-offs and the draft.

Here's my stab at the hypothetical deal, based on the parameters stated above:

To Flames: Jokinen + Booth (5.25M+0.7M)
To Panthers: Tanguay + Lombardi + Eriksson (5.25M+1.817M+1.5M)

Thoughts?

EDIT - for those of you confused by the "tagging room" stuff re: the stalled Langkow contract, click here.

LATER EDIT - Darren Dreger appeared on some radio stations today reporting that Jokinen "will not be reporting back to Florida this summer". Maybe this thing actually has legs?

EDIT THE THIRD - George Williams of the Miami Herald says no deal for Jokinen has been reached, though he expects the Panthers Captain to be traded at some point this summer:

People I've spoken to within the organization say no trade involving Jokinen is forthcoming, although there is plenty of interest in the 29-year-old centerman.

...That said, I do think the Panthers and Jokinen will probably part ways in the coming weeks. I don't think Olli and JM like each other very much, and if JM was still the coach, Olli would probably have found himself somewhere else.

Via Spector.

Family Circus doesn't have to suck.

As hockey fandom basks in the post-coital glow of the post-season climax, the impetus to post anything has shrunk to almost nothing. That said, I couldn't resist sharing this fun little link, even though it has nothing to do with the avowed purpose of this blog:

The Nietzsche Family Circus pairs a randomized Family Circus cartoon with a randomized Friedrich Nietzsche quote. Refresh the page to see a new comic.

Like Chocolate and Peanut Butter, sometimes the union of seemingly disparate things results in sweet fruit nonetheless. Enjoy.

Another One in the Books

Congratulations to the Detroit Red Wings, the 2007-2008 Stanley Cup Champions. Likely one of the best teams I've ever seen play. Quality from top to bottom, from the players to the front office. Congrats, also, to Nick Lidstrom, the first European captain in league history to lead his team to the Holy Grail, and Henrik Zetterberg for his (deserving) Conn Smythe.

Finally, kudos to the Pittsburgh Penguins, for making it an interesting series and thrilling last couple of games.

And now the off-season foolishness can begin in earnest. Can't wait.

Experience: a first glance

Matt and Tom Benjamin, two of the blogosphere's more cerebral contributors, had a bit of a go at each other recently over the subject of "experience" and it's effect on winning in the NHL.

First, some background. Matt broached the subject a little while ago in response to the youth vs. experience narrative being peddled during the cup finals. To summarize:

Experience is valuable insofar as most NHL players get better at their jobs over their first few seasons, but past that, its value is equal parts marginal and mythical...

The mythical part is rather straightforward. Tomas Holmstrom has been through the wars, but you can count on Sidney Crosby to make better decisions with the puck and create more scoring chances, because he's Sidney Crosby -- he's a better hockey player. Holmstrom's experience probably makes him a bit better player than a 21-year-old with his same size and skill set, but it doesn't make him a better player than Sidney Crosby.

Meaning experience is a pertinent contributor to success inasmuch as it effects the progression and development of a given player. To be explicit: hockey players have a virtual "floor" and "ceiling" in terms of their abilities and output. The range/levels of their floor/ceiling is mainly determined by skill, ie; how good a hockey player they are. Crosby's floor, for example, is well above Wayne Primeau's ceiling, meaning a team of 21 year-old Crosbys is likely to beat up on a team of 27 year-old Primeaus every single time, despite the fact the Primreau club would have the experiential edge.

Of course, a player's abilities (relative to himself) tend to expand as they physically mature and gain at-bats. It's generally accepted wisdom that most players usually reach their ceiling - or peak - around the age of 27/28 (usually after 5 seasons worth of play). The best tend to plateau for awhile, others drop off due to injury, fatigue, wear-and-tear. If Im not misrepresenting him, Matt's point is two-fold:

1.) A players skill, rather than his experience, is the more consequential factor when it comes to performance and success. While a 27 year-old Crosby is superior to a 21 year-old Crosby, the younger version is still probably superior to most other players in the league - experienced or otherwise.

2.) Experience, as it's framed and conceptualized in the MSM's typical narrative, is mythical since it's gains don't actually tend to be additive or useful after a player reaches his peak. For example, play-off games number 100 and 101 probably weren't any more instructive or useful to Chris Chelios than games number 80 and 81. At a certain point, like painting a window black to block out the sun, progressive "layers" of experience become less and less relevant.

Tom's reponse:

Hockey is a game of mistakes. David Staples has started counting errors leading to goals as a new statistic. The number isn't particularly valid, but the salient point is that it is not hard for him - or anyone else - to find mistakes on every scoring play or scoring chance.

As players gain experience, they eliminate mistakes. This - more than anything else - is how players improve. They learn what they can and cannot do at the NHL level. They learn when they can force the play and when patience and the safe play is right. They learn when they can pinch and when they cannot. They are less likely to take stupid penalties.

Even experienced players make mistakes and a creative player like Crosby or Malkin can actually force errors. Therefore there is no such thing as a perfect game. But experienced teams recover quickly and minimize the impact of the inevitable gaffes. Inexperienced teams tend to compound errors.

Tom's point is, I think, technically less principled and more pragmatic on the team-building front: a club with too many kids and rookies is more apt to be error-prone, as a larger portion of the team will be closer to it's "floor" than it's "ceiling". So while skill may be a a greater contributing factor - as in the Crosby vs. Primeau example - the issue is: there is a distribution of skill across players on a team (and the league in general) and the Crosbys and Malkins of the world are outliers, or, exceedingly rare. Therefore, a team with a lot of inexperienced players - players near the onset of their careers - is likely to be worse than the experienced squad since, all things being equal, the average NHLer at 27 is better than the average NHLer at 21.

Anyways, I promised in Tom's comment thread to put together some of the data to see what could be found. Here's what I cobbled together so far:

Experience (regular season games played) and points (07-08) by Team



Graphed


Method:

basically, I went through and summed the cumulative games played (regular season) of every player for each team's roster as a metric for experience. I considered using "age", but that seems like a pale proxy for experience as opposed to actually playing games.

I smoothed the data-set out a bit by excluding goaltenders and paring each roster down to just 23 skaters (roster sizes were variable, depending on trades, call-ups, injuries, etc.). The "23" figure was fairly arbitrary, though it seemed to capture all of the significant contributors while excluding cup-o-coffee guys. Probably anything from 18-22 would have worked as well.

Even though I posited earlier that experience becomes less relevant past a certain threshold, I decided to use cumulative games played as the independent variable because I initially wanted to investigate the prevailing (or "mythical") conception of experience and it's contribution to success. Perhaps, for example, there are benefits to being "veteran" beyond landing on the meaty portion of a player's career arc: dressing room presence, "leadership", respect for and from teammates, etc.

Not that this investigation speaks to that in any meaningful way. As you can see, the data yielded a positive correlation between "total games played" and "regular season points" for the prior year of 0.53. Not perfect, but hardly inconsequential. Unfortunately, as it's set-up now, the analysis probably conflates a lot of the factors we're trying to separate out and doesn't necessarily elucidate any causal relationships. This is more a beginning of the discussion than the conclusion I guess.

A more thorough investigation (by someone more math savvy) would be in order. I have the raw data, which can be be further parsed and correlated by anyone else interested. I may or may not do my own follow-up on the subject...

-----------------------------------------------------------------

There's a famous SNL skit about the Blue Oyster Cult's "Don't Fear the Reaper", featuring Christopher Walken and Will Ferrell. In it, Walken plays producer Bruce Dickinson who "has a fever for the cowbell". No doubt a fair measure of the skit's comedic value comes from the juxtaposition between Ferrel's typical obnoxious flailing and Walken's now iconic flat stare and wooden delivery. However, the underlying joke the skit is predicated upon is Dickinson's (Walken's) manic and nonsensical obsession with the cowbell, which is a relatively inconsequential aspect of the track.

In a way, I think a lot of fans and even coaches or GM's have their own "cowbells": those factors they foreground and elevate above and beyond their true values. Personally, when I played hockey myself, I was under-sized and I survived via speed and agility. Now, the smaller, quicker players are the ones that elicit my sympathies (which likely explains my continued quest to insulate Lombardi from criticism). One of the reasons the above inquiry was interesting to me is I consider "experience" to be one of Darryl Sutter's cowbells: he seems to have a fever for it, even though it's contributions to the tune may be minimal.

Of interest to Flames fans is the fact that Calgary was one of the most experienced clubs in the league last year, in terms of total career games played, but had only middling results. Most notably, Calgary had the fewest number of roster players with less than 410 games played (the equivalent of 5 full seasons of hockey), at 9. An unofficial per-team average for "inexperienced" players (less than 410 games) was about 12 or 13. A lot of teams with a greater number of inexperienced players did better than Calgary last year (though, a lot of teams with inexperienced players also did worse).

I see Sutter's experience fetish as a cowbell* because it seems to override the contribution of skill - the "floor/ceiling" factor - in a lot of cases. As previously discussed, guys like Eriksson, Primeau, Friesen etc. were given higher salaries and preference over younger potential replacement level players despite the fact they wouldn't be getting any better and were pricier. Beyond creating a hostile development environment (as previously discussed), the other problem in light of this discussion is Eriksson et al. sucked, experience or no. Their ceilings were low. The totality of events, that treasure trove of games played, didn't amount to much because, well - they just weren't very good players.

I think - and further explication of this issue may or may not prove this accurate - that Sutter can pound on that cowbell all he wants, but it wont make the track any better without taking into account other, salient factors (like skill-level, cap efficiency, etc).

*(Other Sutter cowbells include: Western Canadian guys, former first round draft picks and former "Sutter" players).

Flames "news" and sundry blogfiller.

Some minor Flames news and random thoughts to pass on during this insufferable gap between play-off rounds.

First, the Sun recently published a series of pieces centered around a Randy Sportak interview of Ken King. Dubbed "the state of the union", the series is actually stunning in it's delivery of, well...little more than obfuscation and platitudes. King is a brass-balls, iron-fisted business man behind closed doors, but is overtly diplomatic with fans and the media in public. Several interesting subjects are broached - including the direction of the team and the possibility of a new building, and King reveals essentially nothing that wasn't known previously. Anyways, if you want to experience the politicking yourself, enjoy:

State of the union.

King admitted the data goes into the "large hopper" and "it would have a place" but refused to comment on it, not even to take credit for the No. 15 ranking for fan relations.

"I can't respond to the good any more than I can to the bad," he said.

"It would be inappropriate for me to take a bow for the positive aspects of it -- I don't consider 15 to be very positive, by the way -- than it would be for me to pooh-pooh the negative."

Team Direction.

"I think it's parity. I think the difference is a very, very fine line. We want to, plan to and need to progress. You're not looking at a team that is managed or owned or operated by people who believe that a first-round exit in the playoffs is OK or making the playoffs is OK. That's not who we are."

Ticket Prices.

"What we have always attempted to do with our pricing is balance the market we're in, the demand for tickets we have, and a level of fairness."

A New Home.

"We believe the long-term future of the team and our fans requires we have a new building at some point," said King. "We would like to attempt to complete a building by 2014, open the doors of a new building. That's the natural expiry of our existing lease. As each day and each month marches on, that becomes an increasingly difficult target to try and hit. We have spent money, we have done research, we have spent a lot of time and effort."

Dollars and Sense

"In order for us to continue to spend at the levels we do, which are very near the cap, we have to be very near optimizing revenues in order to achieve them,"

"We don't have a big gap. We need full buildings, we need good advertising revenue, we need good television revenue, we need good merchandise revenue, we need good food and beverage revenue. We need the wind blowing hard at our back in a positive revenue form in order for us to finance and keep our commitment to a competitive team."

(Don't say I didn't warn you).

Secondly, during his recent interview on Fan960, Sutter admitted the Flames had pursued un-drafted wunderkind and new Dallas Star Fabian Brunnstrom. In the same exchange, Darryl admitted the organization also has it's eye on one Martin Thornberg of the SEL.

Thornberg is a 25 year-old LW who scored 20 goals and 37 points (in 51 GP) this season in the Swedish Elite League. Those numbers aren't overly impressive to me, but then again I don't know who he plays with/against and have never seen him live. So maybe there's something there. I wouldn't bet on him being a capable Huselius replacement, however, since the latter managed 14 goals and 49 points in just 34 games in the same league back in 03-04 (and around the same age as well). However, any player that can potentially increase the depth of the organizations laughably shallow LW should be welcomed with open arms.

Speaking of depth, the QC Flames lost AHL journeyman Tim Hambly to the the Chicago Blackhawks recently. Hambly wasn't really Calgary property, having played under an AHL-only contract last year, so I guess this isn't really very newsworthy, unless you're a big QC fan. Hambly scored 4 goals and managed 26 assists in what turned out to be a career year for the 25 year-old last season.

Finally, on the topic of "how nonsense becomes 'conventional wisdom'", I happened to catch a Pierre McGuire segment on local sports radio recently. During the back and forth, McGuire asserted that Chris Osgood was doing "an amazing job" in net for the Red Wings, because "it's very difficult to play behind a team like Detroit" because "they limit the opposition to so few shots". I shit you not. In McGuire's mind, having fewer shots - and fewer quality opportunities against - is a tough gig for a goaltender - "because they like to have more shots and feel part of the game".

Sigh.

Such and Such

Congrats to both the Penguins and Red Wings. Im looking forward to this final, which is more that can be said for the previous two rounds. To Pittsburgh fans: while you may seem to be on the precipice of a dynasty with all those great young players, make sure to enjoy this experience while it lasts. It could turn out to be rather fleeting - take it from a Flames fan.

To Detroit fans: I hate you spoiled, spoiled bastards.

An now, apropos of nothing: iceless skating. Seriously.

Note my furrowed brows

Does anyone else have a sinking feeling that Todd Fedoruk is going to become a Flame in the near future?

Perhaps this horrible calamity could be prevented by my turning to the dark side?

Or maybe it's just me...

Four million reasons to trade Adrian Aucoin

A little while ago, Frequent Commenter Ngthagg and I had a back and forth regarding Adrian Aucoin. Here's his comment, which is the jumping off point for this discussion:

I think Aucoin may have a bit more value than some people think. Look at his numbers:

10g/25p
+13
20:57/game
37PIM

I don't know if that's worth $4M, but it's worth more than bugger all. Those are the numbers of a reliable offensive dman. And it's hard to say if he'll take a step back next year, since this year was such a drastic improvement over his time in Chicago.

Quite sensible. Aucoin's counting numbers are certainly nothing to sneeze at and were actually some of the better ones on the Flames back-end. The more I've thought about it, though, the more Im convinced that Adrian will indeed take a step back next year.

Firstly, keep in mind Aucoin played against nobodies all year and spent over four minutes on the PP with Phaneuf/Iginla/Huselius/Langkow. Almost anyone playing beside Phaneuf sees an increase in their PP efficacy - just ask Andrew Ference. "Friendly surroundings" and all that. And speaking in general terms, I've found that players that excel only in the cuddliest of circumstances tend to fall back eventually (because circumstances can't always be cuddly). For evidence see: Tom Preissing.

Secondly, Aucoin's favorable results from this past season represent a bunch of near-career-bests, suggesting a regression back to the norm is in order next year. The 76 games he played was the most he's managed since 03-04, His 35 point total was the 2nd best of his career and the 8.3 shooting percentage was his highest since that 23 goal season in Vancouver all the way back in '98. His career averages for the various categories are:

GP - 59
goals - 7
points - 23
SH% - 5.5

Chances are, Aucoin falls back towards the mean in one, if not all, of these areas next year. Especially since he's a 34 year-old veteran of 13+ seasons.

Even considering the role of chance and easy minutes detailed above, like me, you may still be a little surprised by Aucoin's numbers, especially if you watched him lumber around all year. There were many times that Aucoin looked like a fairly terrible defender, particularly if he was caught on the ice with anyone of moderate skill. His +13 doesn't seem to jive with my qualitative perceptions of his abilities.

Which is why I wasn't surprised when I stumbled across Aucoin's name in this "horseshoes list" compiled by Jeff over at Sisu Hockey. What it shows is the players that seemed to benefit from complimentary difference in for/against team SH% while they were on the ice. As you can see, the Flames had a SH% of 10.6 versus a 6.4 SH% for the opponents while Aucoin was playing - a difference of 4.2%. I suppose it's possible he was driving these kinds of results, but, after watching him all year, I really don't think so. As Jeff notes:

I also removed the players who are obvious drivers of big % differences (Crosby, Malkin, Lidstrom, Getzlaf, Iginla etc). No point in including them - I'm looking for the guys who are due for a fall, guys you might want to avoid trading for.

Or, in the Flames case, avoid keeping on the roster when cap-space is a precious commodity. The more I look at Aucoin this off-season, the more I think trading him is the prudent move. All arrows point to a big step backwards next year; if Adrian's 4M cap-hit is poor value when all the coins land on heads, he's going to look like a hideous boat anchor when the numbers start averaging out (just ask Chicago). Deal him now when his stats still look good and use the cap-space on a top 6 forward.

Talking up the VDG

Rob Kerr recently posted a summary of a discussion with QC Flames head coach Ryan McGill recently on his blog. Of interest were McGill's thoughts on the potential "NHL ready" guys, particularly considering the big clubs pressing need for cheap replacement players next year.

David Van Der Gulik is a guy who quietly made huge stride this year, according to his coach David is a guy that doesn’t do one thing really well but does a bunch of things very well.

I've championed VDG around these parts previously, based mainly on stats and third-hand accounts (as I've never really been able to see him play). Last year, the 24 year-old RW led the team in terms of plus/minus, while putting up respectable, if unspectacular, offensive numbers (16-27-43).

Stats-wise VDG didn't seem to take a step forward this season, although one has to consider the team around him was considerably worse than the 06-07 version: no Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano, Dustin Boyd, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin or Curtis MceLhinney (for a portion of the season). Plus Daniel Ryder's thing. That's at least two top 2 defenders, 3 significant forwards and a number 1 goalie, gone without adequate replacement. It's hardly a wonder the team didn't make the play-offs.

McGill's comments made me take another look at VDG's numbers at the end of the year. He ended up 4th in terms of scoring with 42 points and tied for 3rd in goals with 19. He was also the only forward on the entire squad with a plus rating (+3) and one of only two players in the black by this measure (Palin, at +14, was the other). From what I can gather from shaky messageboard reports, VDG was the teams top penalty killer (also, team leader in SHG with 3) and frequently played against the tougher competition. If that's true, then the fact that he scored at a decent pace against a good level of competition, with only secondary PP time and away from the clubs other offensive threats (Stevenson and Kolanos) is encouraging. What that seems to suggest is, Gulik can drive a positive GD, even against tough competition and even though he doesn't score a lot himself. That's good.

The thing being, the kid's not exactly a kid anymore and the time is rapidly approaching for the Flames to fish or cut bait with VDG if he's to be anything more than AHL fodder. From the scraps of evidence I can find, David looks like the kind of player Nystrom was expected to be, but has thus far failed to (and likely never will) be. Hell, if Nystrom, Godard or Mark Smith can make the Flames, surely VDG can be afforded a shot this season.

Other guys mentioned in the article are: Matt Pelech and Adam Pardy ("close to NHL level") and team scoring leader Grant Stevenson. Conspicuously absent: Kris "I wish I was back in the BCHL" Chucko.

Looking Ahead

With the 07-08 season in the rear-view mirror it's probably time to start investigating the Flames present and near future. As we've already established, Sutter has some significant challenges in store for him this summer, especially if the goal is to take a step forward rather than tread water (or fall back).

The Forwards

For the sake of this discussion, Im going to assume the rumored Langkow and Giordano contracts are true.

Firstly, here's what the clubs forwards depth chart currently looks like (cap hit in parentheses).

Tanguay (5.25)-Langkow (5?)-Iginla (7)
?-Lombardi (1.817)-?
Nilson (1)-Boyd (.543)-Moss (.550)
?-Primeau (1.4)-?

(Prust, Van Der Gulik ?)

Total: 22.56M

UFAs (projected salary/year):

Huselius (4.5)
Conroy (1)
Nolan (1.5)
Yelle (.700)
Mark Smith (.550)
Eric Godard (.550)
Eric Nystrom (.700)
Stevenson (.700)

We can guess almost immediately that Eric Godard and Eric Nystrom will be re-signed. I personally don't have much use for either of them, but the coach and management seemed to like both guys last year. I think we can also guess that Huselius and Smith will walk this summer, Juice because the grass really is greener elsewhere and Smith because he's pretty much useless.

That leaves Conroy, Nolan and Yelle. Some tough decisions. While Nolan and Conroy weren't very adept in the offensive zone last year, they both proved they can still contribute to some degree, even against tough competition. Re-signing one or both of them will depend largely on their salary demands and how much Sutter is willing to invest in players that aren't a 2nd line LWer (the teams most glaring weakness with the ouster of Huselius). An additional variable may be the Primeau contract: if Sutter can somehow rid the club of that burden, he may be able to get both Conroy and Nolan back for another year.

As for Yelle, I fear his time as a Flame has come to a close. He's no longer an elite PKer and his offensive game has spiraled into total non-existence. While I dont think he should be put out to pasture just yet, he looks like the most expendable of the three players mentioned to me.

Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
(free agent)-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik?)

New total: 24.91M

Potential UFA LW:

Naslund
Fedotenko
Gelinas
Stillman
Nagy
Shanahan
Malone
Hagman
Pandolfo

Ugh. Boy oh boy it's a thin crop. Guys like Hagman and Malone who had career seasons this year are going to be overpaid this summer. Naslund will probably be too expensive and is unlikely to sign here anyways. Gelinas and Shanahan are getting to old for top 6 ice-time. And Nagy is the cock-tease type who is too injured and too lacking in passion to deliver on the promise suggested by his talent level.

The top candidates from where I sit are Fedotenko, Stillman and Pandolfo. Of the three, only Stillman has what many would consider "top 6" type offense and will likely be the most expensive. He isn't much of checker, but can produce on the PP.

Fedotenko is a 15-20-35 guy who is speedy and can play against a decent level of competition without being overwhelmed. Flames fans "saw him good" during the 03-04 finals.

Jay Pandolfo is ideally a shut-down forward. He has the most modest offensive totals out of the three, but he also tends to play against the toughest competition. Pandolfo actually had a pretty decent ESP/60 rate last season over 54 games (1.99/60) relative to his teammates (and Stillman and Fedotenko, actually), which is encouraging considering who he was playing with and against every night. He was also tied for the best ES +/- rating (+9) amongst NJD forwards.

Last year, Stillman made 1.750M (cap-wise), Fedotenko made 2.90M (!) and Pandolfo made 0.836M. Feds is the youngest at 28 while Pandolfo and Stillman are 32 and 33 respectively.

Looking at the numbers now, I'd be really surprised if NJ allowed Pandolfo to walk. He's incredibly good value, even if he deson't put up great counting numbers. Assuming he's available though, that's the guy I'd like to see Sutter target. He'll be cheap, he can play against anybody and he was a plus player on a club that wasn't very good at scoring at ES last year. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to add much in the way of PP scoring.

Assuming a contract of about 1.5M, adding Pandolfo and a 700k 13th forward (Prust, Van Der Gulik, etc), the depth chart becomes

Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
Pandolfo-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik)

Total: approx 27.11M.

Strengths: Top 3 lines can all take on tough competition without being overwhelmed.

Weaknesses: Team is even more top-heavy, with an almost complete lack of legitimate offensive threats outside the #1 line. Depending on how Boyd and Nystrom progress, the 4th line looks like a loser again to me as well (boy I hope Im wrong about the Godard thing).

Defense

Here's where the rubber really hits the road. Lots of bad money on this part of the roster that absolutely must be purged in the off-season if Sutter wants the Flames to be competitive next year (and to subsequently keep his job as the team's GM).

Depth chart (cap-hit):

Regehr (4)-Sarich (3.6)
Phaneuf (6.5)-Aucoin (4)
Giordano(.80)-Eriksson (1.5)

Warrener (2.35)

Total: 22.75M

UFAs (projected salary/year):

Hale (.600)
Vandermeer (1.5)

The issues afflicting the back-end are glaring and obvious.

First of all, Warrener's contract has to go away through whatever means necessary (short of buying him out). Even when he's healthy (which is rare) his contributions fall well short of his cap hit. If he does nothing else this Summer, Sutter absolutely MUST get rid of Warrener. To put it into perspective, Daz could conceivably re-sign both Giordano and Vandermeer for about what Warrener's salary is worth.

Next up on the hit list is my favorite punching bag, Anders Eriksson. Bubba proved beyond a shadow of a doubt (at least to me) that he's little more than a fringe NHL player at this stage in his career. Although he could probably be a capable enough 6th/7th defenseman, like Warrener, his cap-hit is out of line with his role. Deal him for bag of sweaty jocks, waive him, send him to the farm...just get rid of him.

Im more ambivalent about Adrian Aucoin however. He was decent on the PP this season and wasn't too much of a liability at ES as long as he was sheltered. 4M is still poor value, but at least Aucoin can help the team win in some manner. His NTC and bigger salary also make it more difficult to deal or send him to the minors. My feeling is Aucoin will be sticking around unless Sutter can somehow deal him and get something worthwhile coming back.

Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-Vandermeer/replacement
Aucoin-Giordano

Hale or Pardy

Total: approx 21M

Strengths: Cheaper, a little more mobile, with at 3 least PP capable defensemen.

Weaknesses: Still a gap in the top 4 (Vandermeer is more a 5-6 guy), unless Gio has taken a couple leaps forward.

Altogether

Forwards -- 27.1M
Defensemen -- 21M
Goalies (Kipper @ 5.833M + Back-up @ .700M) -- 6.533M
-------------------
54.64M

It's a pretty tight squeeze, even granting the eliminations of Warrener, Eriksson and Primeau and cheaping out on the top 6 LW signing. If the cap falls short of the expected 56M ceiling, then dealing one of Aucoin or even Tanguay for cheaper pieces becomes a necessity (and yes, Tanguay has a NTC as well).

Whatever Sutter makes, he's going to earn it this summer. As you can see from my hypothetical scenario above, he's facing quite the boondoggle. Perhaps the best part about the impending budget crunch is Darryl will be forced to abandon some of his bad habits. There won't be any money or room for reclamation projects (Friesen), comfortable vets (Primeau) or "experienced" defensemen (Eriksson, Zyuzin). It's "adapt or die"for this management team this summer I think. Im really quite interested to see which it will be.