I've been going through the various UFA's over the last few days, just trying to get a sense of what may be available for the Flames come July 1.
Here's an untidy list of the centers who are scheduled to become unrestricted this summer:
Centers: Potential Salary
Daniel Briere: 6M
Chris Drury: 5.5M
Scott Gomez: 4.5M
Peter Forsberg: 3.0M
Robert Lang: 2.5M
Radek Bonk: 2.5M
Petr Sykora: 2.5M
Viktor Kozlov: 2.0M
Tyler Arnason: 2.0M
Michal Handzus: 2.0M
Mike Comrie: 2.0M
Jozef Stumpel: 1.7M
Pierre Turgeon: 1.5M
Brett McLean: 1.5M
Todd White: 1.5M
Wes Walz: 1.5M
Bryan Smolinski: 1.5M
Michael Peca: 1.5M
Jeff O'Neill: 1.5M
Nik Antropov: 1.5M
Yanic Perrault: 1.5M
Mike York: 1.5M
Eric Belanger: 1.5M
Waye Primeau: 1.0M
Ian Laperriere: 1.0M
Eric Lindrom: 1.0M
Stu Barnes: 1.0M
Patrik Stefan: 1.0M
Mike Ricci: 1.0M
Jeremy Roenick: 1.0M
Josef Vasicek: 1.0M
Glen Metropolit: 0.9
Trevor Linden: 0.75
Jeff Hamilton: 0.75
Adam Mair: 0.75
Toby Peterson: 0.75
Mark Smith: 0.7
Michael Holmqvist: 0.7
Boyd Devereaux: 0.7
Randy Robitaille: 0.6
Wyatt Smyth: 0.5
Jason Morgan: 0.5
Tommi Santala: 0.5
Carl Corazinni: 0.5
Scott Nichol: 0.5
Jerred Smithson: 0.5
Mike Glumac: 0.5
Michael Ryan: 0.5
Travis Green: 0.5
Erik Rasmussen: 0.5
Eric Boguinecki: 0.5
Andreas Karlsson: 0.5
Eric Perrin: 0.5
Peter Nedved: 0.5
Byron Ritchie: 0.45
Brad Moran: 0.45
Mark Hartigan: 0.45
Marty Murray: 0.45
Craig MacDonald: 0.45
Matt Hussey: 0.45
Trent Whitefield: 0.45
Jeremy Reich: 0.45
Serge Payer: 0.45
Jim Dowd: 0.45
Jason Wiemer: 0.45
Mark Cullen: 0.45
The "potential salary" is basically just my stab in the dark at what the player will be commanding in the open market (Millions/per year). Depending on who/what GM's start ravenously chasing in the off-seaon, the number listed may be right on or wildly inaccurate. I made an educated guessed based on the players age, past production and current salary.
There are some decent big names in the list, including Drury, Briere and Gomez. The 2nd tier includes guys like Handzus, Stumpel, Arnason, Viktor Kozlov and Comrie. There aren't a lot of "diamond in the rough" types to my eye: perhaps Todd White could be a decently priced addition to many team's bottom 6 forwards...
Of course, any talk about centers is basically moot from a Flames perspective. Calgary is virtually awash in middlemen, with Langkow, Lombo, Conroy and Yelle already taking up spots and Boyd and Taratukhin pushing up from the minors. Meaning should you see Sutter attract a pivot in the off-season, expect a deal to ship out of one the existing guys to follow soon after.
Anyways, here's a list of players at right wing, which is currently an organizational weakness:
RWs: Potential Salary
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Tony Amonte: 1.0M
Owen Nolan: 1.0M
Peter Bondra: 1.0M
Anson Carter: 1.0M
Arron Asham: 0.9
Nils Ekman: 0.9
Radek Dvorak: 0.8
Matthew Barnaby: 0.7
Grant Marshall: 0.7
Jed Ortmeyer: 0.7
Jason Ward: 0.7
Mark Rycroft: 0.6
Scott Parker: 0.6
Tom Kostopoulos: 0.6
Petr Tenkrat: 0.6
Niko Dimitrakos: 0.6
JP Vigier: 0.6
Darren McCarty: 0.5
Ben Guite: 0.5
Lee Goren: 0.5
Shawn Thornton: 0.5
Reed Low: 0.5
Josh Langfeld: 0.5
Brad Tapper: 0.5
Eric Meloche: 0.5
Denis Hamel: 0.5
Ronal Petrovicky: 0.5
Rob DiMaio: 0.5
Pat Leahy: 0.45
Jeff Hoggan: 0.45
Aaron Downey: 0.45
Alexander Mogilny: 0.45
There isn't a lot here, to be frank. Zubrus, Guerin, Hartnell and Bertuzzi are probably the best of the bunch. As a Flames fan, I'd love to see Zubrus playing on the 2nd line with Langkow and Huselius, but chances are he'll get priced out of the Flames range by the market. Hartnell might be the best bet here - he's a competent enough 2-way player and he shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.
Finally, I've compiled a list of UFA defencemen as well:
Defence: Potential Salary
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Roman Hamrlik: 4M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Greg De Vries: 1.8M
Brent Sopel: 1.5M
Sean O'Donnell: 1.5M
Jaroslav Modry: 1.5M
Bryan Berard: 1.5M
Teppo Numminen: 1.5M
Brad Lukowich: 1.5M
Tom Poti: 1.5M
Patrice Brisebois: 1.0M
Ossi Vaananen: 1.0M
Daniel Tjarnqvist: 1.0M
Martin Skoula: 1.0M
Vitaly Vishnevski: 1.0M
Glen Wesley: 1.0M
Nolan Pratt: 1.0M
Bryan Muir: 1.0M
Jan Hejda: 0.9
Chris Chelios: 0.9
Janne Niinimaa: 0.9
Josef Melichar: 0.9
David Tanabe: 0.9
Ric Jackman: 0.8
Ken Klee: 0.7
Jon Klemm: 0.7
Jamie Heward: 0.7
Anders Eriksson: 0.7
Jiri Fischer: 0.7
Greg Zanon: 0.7
Thomas Pock: 0.7
Shane Hnidy: 0.7
Jamie Rivers: 0.6
Sean Hill: 0.6
Rob Scuderi: 0.6
Alain Nasreddine: 0.6
Lwarence Nycholat: 0.5
Brad Ference: 0.5
Yannick Tremblay: 0.5
Joe DiPenta: 0.5
Kent Huskins: 0.5
Mike Weaver: 0.5
David Koci: 0.5
Derrick Walser: 0.5
Brad Norton: 0.5
Sheldon Brookbank: 0.5
Tomas Mojzis: 0.5
Jason York: 0.5
Bobby Allen: 0.5
Nathan Dempsey: 0.5
Alex Brooks: 0.5
Jim Fahey: 0.5
Dan McGillis: 0.5
Joel Bouchard: 0.5
Jason Strudwick: 0.5
Martin Grenier: 0.5
Eric Cairns: 0.5
Joel Kwiatkowski: 0.5
Luke Richardson: 0.5
Ian Moran: 0.45
David Printz: 0.45
Micki Dupont: 0.45
There are over 70 defencemen set to test the UFA waters in the summer, but only a few of them are of the "elite" quality. Kimmo Timonen is probably the best of the bunch. He can competently play against the big guns and he puts up points. Brian Rafalski will also command a decent pay day, as will Hannan and the Markovs (Danny and Andrei). Some sucker will probably pony up 5 mill for Sheldon Souray's -20 something, thanks to his gawdy PP numbers. And, of course, Brad Stuart will be highly sought after thanks to his size, age and pedigree.
There are more "middle of the road" options in the blueliner pool as compared to the RWers though. Sutton, Sarich, Schneider, Rivet, Miller, Sydor, Sopel and Skoula represent "better than bad" options, depending on organizational needs. Sutton is interesting, if only because he's a monster of a man (6'6", 245 pounds). by the end of the year, he wasn't facing top competition, though. The Zhitnik/Havelid duo was matched against the Jagr line in the play-offs, meaning Sutton might just be an expensive but bruising bottom pairing guy.
The Flames are going to need to re-sign Stuart or find a complimentary player for Robyn Regehr amongst those listed. Of course, I'd like to see Timonen in that role (mobile, good puck mover, can play big minutes) but, of course, so would every other GM for every other team. He'll likely be too pricey. The Flames may need to plug a hole beside Phaneuf if Hammer doesn't re-sign as well. Would a Sydor, Rivet, Sarich get the job done there? Danny Markov might look nice next to the Dion, though he might be too expensive as well.
Keep an eye on Greg Zanon. He was averaging close to 20 minutes/night by the end of the year for Nashville and playing pretty competently, albeit on the 3rd pairing. He's only 27 and might just be a decent find for teams trying to cheaply plug some holes on their back-end with guys who can quietly get the job done.
Anyways, that's the extent of my explorations so far. I think I'll put up the LW list tomorrow, just to "complete the picture" so to speak. If anyone has a wish list, suggestions or wants to share any other sort of speculation, feel free to leave something in the comments.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Friday, April 27, 2007
First Step
I've been absent for a few days, partially because, well, the Flames don't play hockey anymore and partially because I'm pacing myself now that the off-season is upon us. Naturally, I have dozens of know-it-all solutions and loud-mouth denunciations rattling around in my brain but with 5 months of inactivity staring me in the face, I thought it wise to space them across the coming weeks.
I've said my piece on the Playfair thing. Whether or not he remains the Flames coach will be answered in the next few months.
The next burning issue facing Sutter is, of course, the state of the roster. The Flames have 10 players scheduled to become UFA's starting July 1st. According to NHLnumbers.com, that list includes:
Tony Amonte
Jeff Friesen
Marcus Nilson
Darren McCarty
Byron Ritchie
Wayne Primeau
Roman Hamrlik
Brad Stuart
Brad Ference
Jamie McLennan
None of the forward free agents of are of much concern. Amonte, Friesen and Nilson are probably the best players of those listed and I consider their contributions to be replacable by younger, cheaper players. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Amonte retires. Ditto for Darren McCarty, who is so scarred and battle-worn it seems unlikely he will ever lace up a pair of skates again. Byron Ritchie is a capable 13th forward type, but he may just bolt to another franchise with the hope of cracking the roster full-time. Wayne Primeau impressed for the first couple weeks of his Calgary audition, but slowed to the degree that his contributions seemed rather negligible. I'm guessing he'll be gone too.
The gaps up front will be filled by the farm and likely one or two FA signings. Those Omaha Knights who are most probable to become Calgary Flames next year is another post altogether, but here's a short list anyhow:
Carsen Germyn
Andrei Taratukhin
David Van Der Gulik
Brandon Prust
Tomi Maki
In Germyn and Taratukhin, the Flames have a couple of mature, two-way forwards that can contribute at both ends of the ice. Both forwards tied for the team lead with 60 points this season, with Germyn leading the club with 28 goals. He's had back to back 20+ goal campaigns in the minors.
Prust, Van Der Gulik and Maki are checkers to varying degrees. Prust is a shit-disturber in the Steve Begin/Sean Avery vein. His presence and energy would be a welcome addition to the bottom trio I think. Van Der Gulik is a defensive specialist a la Stephane Yelle. He finished his first pro season in the AHL with 16 goals and a staggering +27 rating, which was a full +11 above the 2nd best player on the squad. Van Der Gulik isn't big or mean - just smart. He could become a competent PK specialist type at the NHL level if his progress continues forward. Finally, Tomi Maki doesn't appear to be very good at anything, but WI likes him so I threw him in there for kicks.
Unfortunately for the Flames, the farm isn't going to be of much help when it comes to their biggest organizational weaknesses going into the new year: a top 6 RW and at least one top 4 defender.
With all apologies to David Moss, who acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season, the Flames have a relatively weak stable of RWs after Jarome Iginla. A capable 2nd or 3rd line winger should be on Sutter's shopping list in July.
Of greater importance will be a top 4 blueliner, dependent, of course, on what happens with pending free agents Roman Hamrlik and Brad Stuart. Hamrlik has already been quoted around town saying he earnestly wants to re-sign with the club. I would suggest a 2 year deal at or below his current salary would get the deal done.
Stuart, however, has been a lot less forthcoming. His interviews have yielded the typical "I like the team, but we'll see..." kind of responses most UFAs give before bolting. If Stuart should decide to sign somewhere in California over the summer, which is the prevailing rumor, the Flames will be stuck with a big gaping hole beside Robyn Regehr again. With Phaneuf still looking very much like a #4 defenceman by the end of the year, Calgary will most likely have to either do whatever it takes to keep Stuart here or start bidding on the open market for one of the other desirable UFAs. Off the top of my head, buys like Kimmo Timonen and Andrei Markov might fit the bill, although further investigation into their basic and advanced stats would be in order. Preferably, I would like to see Stuart return, mainly because I liked the way he and Regehr got on during his limited time here, but that may be wishful thinking.
In the back-up position, I would expect Jamie McLennan to ride off into the sunset and into a boradcast booth somewhere and leave the door open for young AHL stand-out Curtis McElhinney. The Flames have a number of maturing goaltender prospects in the junior leagues (Irving, Lalande, Keetley) who may well move up to pro next season, meaning the Flames will need to clear space on the farm in order to accommodate them.
McElhinney was the Knight's clear-cut #1 'tender this year ahead of Brent Krahn, meaning he has the inside track for the job. Krahn managed some mediocre numbers in the AHL this year and has probably worn out his welcome as prospect in the Flames system. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt as part of a bundle for a real player or in some minor, stand-alone deal in the off-season.
Anyways, those are my broad, initial thoughts on the Flames roster issues going forward. As the weeks progress, expect some salary-cap accounting as well as barely literate statistical comparisons to flesh out the analysis...
I've said my piece on the Playfair thing. Whether or not he remains the Flames coach will be answered in the next few months.
The next burning issue facing Sutter is, of course, the state of the roster. The Flames have 10 players scheduled to become UFA's starting July 1st. According to NHLnumbers.com, that list includes:
Tony Amonte
Jeff Friesen
Marcus Nilson
Darren McCarty
Byron Ritchie
Wayne Primeau
Roman Hamrlik
Brad Stuart
Brad Ference
Jamie McLennan
None of the forward free agents of are of much concern. Amonte, Friesen and Nilson are probably the best players of those listed and I consider their contributions to be replacable by younger, cheaper players. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Amonte retires. Ditto for Darren McCarty, who is so scarred and battle-worn it seems unlikely he will ever lace up a pair of skates again. Byron Ritchie is a capable 13th forward type, but he may just bolt to another franchise with the hope of cracking the roster full-time. Wayne Primeau impressed for the first couple weeks of his Calgary audition, but slowed to the degree that his contributions seemed rather negligible. I'm guessing he'll be gone too.
The gaps up front will be filled by the farm and likely one or two FA signings. Those Omaha Knights who are most probable to become Calgary Flames next year is another post altogether, but here's a short list anyhow:
Carsen Germyn
Andrei Taratukhin
David Van Der Gulik
Brandon Prust
Tomi Maki
In Germyn and Taratukhin, the Flames have a couple of mature, two-way forwards that can contribute at both ends of the ice. Both forwards tied for the team lead with 60 points this season, with Germyn leading the club with 28 goals. He's had back to back 20+ goal campaigns in the minors.
Prust, Van Der Gulik and Maki are checkers to varying degrees. Prust is a shit-disturber in the Steve Begin/Sean Avery vein. His presence and energy would be a welcome addition to the bottom trio I think. Van Der Gulik is a defensive specialist a la Stephane Yelle. He finished his first pro season in the AHL with 16 goals and a staggering +27 rating, which was a full +11 above the 2nd best player on the squad. Van Der Gulik isn't big or mean - just smart. He could become a competent PK specialist type at the NHL level if his progress continues forward. Finally, Tomi Maki doesn't appear to be very good at anything, but WI likes him so I threw him in there for kicks.
Unfortunately for the Flames, the farm isn't going to be of much help when it comes to their biggest organizational weaknesses going into the new year: a top 6 RW and at least one top 4 defender.
With all apologies to David Moss, who acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season, the Flames have a relatively weak stable of RWs after Jarome Iginla. A capable 2nd or 3rd line winger should be on Sutter's shopping list in July.
Of greater importance will be a top 4 blueliner, dependent, of course, on what happens with pending free agents Roman Hamrlik and Brad Stuart. Hamrlik has already been quoted around town saying he earnestly wants to re-sign with the club. I would suggest a 2 year deal at or below his current salary would get the deal done.
Stuart, however, has been a lot less forthcoming. His interviews have yielded the typical "I like the team, but we'll see..." kind of responses most UFAs give before bolting. If Stuart should decide to sign somewhere in California over the summer, which is the prevailing rumor, the Flames will be stuck with a big gaping hole beside Robyn Regehr again. With Phaneuf still looking very much like a #4 defenceman by the end of the year, Calgary will most likely have to either do whatever it takes to keep Stuart here or start bidding on the open market for one of the other desirable UFAs. Off the top of my head, buys like Kimmo Timonen and Andrei Markov might fit the bill, although further investigation into their basic and advanced stats would be in order. Preferably, I would like to see Stuart return, mainly because I liked the way he and Regehr got on during his limited time here, but that may be wishful thinking.
In the back-up position, I would expect Jamie McLennan to ride off into the sunset and into a boradcast booth somewhere and leave the door open for young AHL stand-out Curtis McElhinney. The Flames have a number of maturing goaltender prospects in the junior leagues (Irving, Lalande, Keetley) who may well move up to pro next season, meaning the Flames will need to clear space on the farm in order to accommodate them.
McElhinney was the Knight's clear-cut #1 'tender this year ahead of Brent Krahn, meaning he has the inside track for the job. Krahn managed some mediocre numbers in the AHL this year and has probably worn out his welcome as prospect in the Flames system. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt as part of a bundle for a real player or in some minor, stand-alone deal in the off-season.
Anyways, those are my broad, initial thoughts on the Flames roster issues going forward. As the weeks progress, expect some salary-cap accounting as well as barely literate statistical comparisons to flesh out the analysis...
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Finally, Something Makes Sense
From tsn:
Also dropped from the first round rotation was veteran Mick McGeough, who worked the Stanley Cup final last year, along with Eric Furlatt, Mike Hasenfratz, Mike Leggo, Wes McCauley, Dan O'Rourke and Tim Peel.
The chances of my enjoying the rest of the play-offs have been greatly increased by this decision.
Also dropped from the first round rotation was veteran Mick McGeough, who worked the Stanley Cup final last year, along with Eric Furlatt, Mike Hasenfratz, Mike Leggo, Wes McCauley, Dan O'Rourke and Tim Peel.
The chances of my enjoying the rest of the play-offs have been greatly increased by this decision.
A tip of the Hat
I think the only good thing about the Flames first round match-up with Detroit was getting to read and interact with their excellent collection of bloggers, headed, of course, by Abel to Yzerman.
Thanks for the series Red Wings! I still hate Bertuzzi, but I can't help but respect that organization and it's continued success.
PS - Bill, if you're reading this...I can't seem to comment on your site. For whatever reason, my comments just sort of disappear once I try to get beyond the spam filter. Anyways, thanks for the kudos and I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on whether or not the series was a foregone conclusion by game 6. Oh, also, thanks for the outsider's perspective on the Playfair issue...
Thanks for the series Red Wings! I still hate Bertuzzi, but I can't help but respect that organization and it's continued success.
PS - Bill, if you're reading this...I can't seem to comment on your site. For whatever reason, my comments just sort of disappear once I try to get beyond the spam filter. Anyways, thanks for the kudos and I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on whether or not the series was a foregone conclusion by game 6. Oh, also, thanks for the outsider's perspective on the Playfair issue...
Onward
I had another 10 Jim Playfair posts ready and waiting to go, but I've decided to let that issue rest for awhile. At this point, I'll just be angrying up the blood for the express purpose of beating a dead horse.
So onto the rest of the league...
I went 6 for 8 in the first round. My misses included my homer pick (ugh...the Flames) and the Nashville Predators, who just naturally send a chill of fear down my spine owing to my being a Flames fan. I ran the board in the East, however, which makes me think I should contain my gambling to that particular Conference from now on...
Eastern Semi-finals:
Buffalo vs. NY Rangers -
The Rangers have played well over the last little while, mainly thanks to the Lundqvist renaissance and the surprising play of Sean Avery (and, perhaps, Nylander!). Unfortunately, they are meeting what I consider to be the Juggernaut of the East - the Buffalo Sabres. Whereas most teams have "role players" and "checking lines" as the 3rd unit, the Sabres have the trio of Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Maxim Afinogenov who are just ready and willing to tear apart soft opposition. Look no further than Vanek's ridiculous +/- rating during the season for proof of that fact. Talk about depth. The only thing that will deny the Sabres a berth in the Eastern finals is an injury to Ryan Miller.
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
Ottawa vs. NJ -
The Devils don't have a prayer in this one. The Senators have been kicking ass since January and it's starting to look like Daniel Alfredsson has conquered his play-off demons. NJ had trouble with the Lightning, and the Senators have more depth up front, better defencemen and better goaltending.
Prediction: Ottawa in 6.
Western Semi-finals:
Anaheim vs. Vancouver -
The Canucks are now in over their heads. The only reason their offensive deficiencies didn't cost them in the first round was they met up with an equally deficient Dallas Stars squad. Luongo's the best goalie in the series, but the Ducks have the overwhelming advantage in just about every other area.
Prediction: Anaheim in 5.
Detroit vs. San Jose -
Detroit proved to be efficient and committed in the first round, but their mettle hasn't properly been tested yet. San Jose has excellent goaltending and probably superior depth on forward. Detroit has the best player in Nick Lidstrom, but even he can't be on the ice for 60 minutes every game. Wilson will find a way to exploit the Red Wings poor special teams and will probably orchestrate a Hasek meltdown by sending Bernier and Grier to stand in his face all game.
Prediction: San Jose in 7.
So onto the rest of the league...
I went 6 for 8 in the first round. My misses included my homer pick (ugh...the Flames) and the Nashville Predators, who just naturally send a chill of fear down my spine owing to my being a Flames fan. I ran the board in the East, however, which makes me think I should contain my gambling to that particular Conference from now on...
Eastern Semi-finals:
Buffalo vs. NY Rangers -
The Rangers have played well over the last little while, mainly thanks to the Lundqvist renaissance and the surprising play of Sean Avery (and, perhaps, Nylander!). Unfortunately, they are meeting what I consider to be the Juggernaut of the East - the Buffalo Sabres. Whereas most teams have "role players" and "checking lines" as the 3rd unit, the Sabres have the trio of Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Maxim Afinogenov who are just ready and willing to tear apart soft opposition. Look no further than Vanek's ridiculous +/- rating during the season for proof of that fact. Talk about depth. The only thing that will deny the Sabres a berth in the Eastern finals is an injury to Ryan Miller.
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
Ottawa vs. NJ -
The Devils don't have a prayer in this one. The Senators have been kicking ass since January and it's starting to look like Daniel Alfredsson has conquered his play-off demons. NJ had trouble with the Lightning, and the Senators have more depth up front, better defencemen and better goaltending.
Prediction: Ottawa in 6.
Western Semi-finals:
Anaheim vs. Vancouver -
The Canucks are now in over their heads. The only reason their offensive deficiencies didn't cost them in the first round was they met up with an equally deficient Dallas Stars squad. Luongo's the best goalie in the series, but the Ducks have the overwhelming advantage in just about every other area.
Prediction: Anaheim in 5.
Detroit vs. San Jose -
Detroit proved to be efficient and committed in the first round, but their mettle hasn't properly been tested yet. San Jose has excellent goaltending and probably superior depth on forward. Detroit has the best player in Nick Lidstrom, but even he can't be on the ice for 60 minutes every game. Wilson will find a way to exploit the Red Wings poor special teams and will probably orchestrate a Hasek meltdown by sending Bernier and Grier to stand in his face all game.
Prediction: San Jose in 7.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Requiem For a Team
In a sweet act of merciful kindness, the Detroit Red Wings pulled the plug on the fatally-ill Calgary Flames last night. While the OT period of game six was certainly "sudden-death", the term is in fact a misnomer considering Calgary's long, slow, painful march to oblivion. By the end of the game on Sunday, after being handily outplayed and outclassed for nearly the entire series, it was clear there was little left for the Flames but to be euthanized.
It's difficult, at this juncture, to consider this season anything but an unmitigated disaster for the Calgary organization. The Flames went from pre-season favorites to mid-season play-off hopefuls to post-season flunkies. All this despite the fact that the roster - one of the best the franchise has seen in over a decade - was bolstered and improved as the season progressed. They spent to the cap, made bold deadline deals to shore-up weaknesses and it didn't seem to make a lick of difference in terms of on-ice play. Sutter made some good moves this year (Tanguay for Leopold, Conroy for Lundmark, Stuart for Ference) and some bad ones (signing Friesen), but clearly the most telling error was the hiring of Playfair. Or, rather, the "not firing" of Nervous Jimmy when it was quite clear he'd lost the team back in March. It's plain as the nose on Tim Hunter's face that Ol' Canaryshirt was basically a 16 year old who was given keys to a Ferrari on his birthday; and, with all apologies to Dany Heatley, he pretty much drove it into a wall.
"Our play on the road speaks volumes," he said. "When you lose (Game 5) 5-1 and your goalie is still a star . . . something's not right. You guys do the math. We're open to being dissected now. It's not up to me to say what the problem is, but I think it's fairly obvious."
You said it, Rhett. I agree.
By the end of the year, the Calgary Flames weren't particularly good at anything. They didn't score more than 3 goals in the month of April. They allowed a lot of shots and generated very few. They weren't particularly physical or fast or intelligent. Their forecheck proved to be limp and ineffectual. Their break-out was easily stuffed. They trapped at times, but did so poorly. Their scorers were silenced. They lost their composure in critical games at critical times. Only Kiprusoff, operating alone, managed to maintain some vestige of excellence.
To put it plainly, the team lacked a cohesive, successful strategy. The fact that the Flames played their hearts out and were still embarrassingly over-matched yesterday speaks volumes about the will and mind of the man who was directing traffic behind the bench. The roster didn't lack skill and it didn't lack effort and it was still out-shot more than 2 to 1 in an elimination game in it's own building. If this isn't the clearest, most damning indictment of the coaching staff, I don't know what is.
My condemnation of Playfair is not a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointing round 1 loss. I was loudly questioning his abilities as far back as February. And the same issues I was harping on then - questionable roster decisions, terrible road performance, lack of consistency, lack of cohesion - proved to be the team's undoing in the post-season. In fact, not only were the aforementioned failings still evident come April, they were magnified and exploited by a comparable roster and a superior coach. This wasn't a series won by a chance bounce or questionable officiating. It was won decisively through a successful strategy carried out consistently by an adequately skilled and motivated line-up of players. Detroit's methods and goals were plain upon viewing - puck control and puck possession. Generate as many shots as possible while allowing as few as possible. Force players to the boards in the defensive end, double-team Iginla, two men on the puck at all times.
In contrast, I can't adequately detail what the Flames gameplan was. I'm not sure whether this is due to the fact that it was absent, poorly matched to the opponent or just not executed properly. Were the Flames trying to trap and take advantage of neutral zone errors? Create chances on the transition? Because they did none of those things competently. I think the trap was sorta part of the equation - due to the limp 1-2-2 forecheck Calgary frequently employed - but the Red Wings escaped the neutral zone with the puck so easily I can't really be sure.
Fuck and double fuck. What a waste of a season. Iginla and Kipper get one year older and the franchise takes a step back rather than forward. Left on the compost-heap is career-like-years for Iginla, Tanguay, Lombardi, Huselius and Langkow. Both Hamrlik and Stuart are UFA's come summer, potentially leaving a gaping hole on the blueline. I guess the only thing to truly look forward to in the off-season, besides Playfair walking the plank, of course, is the inevitable departure of deadweight like McCarty, Amonte and Friesen (and Warrener, if I had my way). Beyond that, the Flames are facing a lot of questions going into the final season of the Kipper-Iggy-Regehr era of this team.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Game 5 Review
Sigh.
I started out this season with expectations of a division title and a respectable post-season run.
In the wreckage of yet another road implosion, with the Flames staring into the black maw of elimination, I'm left with the unenviable task of defending the antics of a demoralized and frustrated 8th place seed.
What a shitshow this has become.
Unfortunately, many of the issues I pointed out in the prior post were in full display yesterday afternoon in Detroit: lack of ES scoring, an ineffective Jarome Iginla and a PP that was bound to regress back to more realistic numbers at some point.
(Playfair certainly helped the PP come back down to Earth yesterday, though. In the face of an impotent attack, his brilliant mid-game adjustment was to give guys like Amonte and Primeau more PP time.)
And now the players are left with slashes and punches to defend their damaged pride. Were they able, or at least hopeful, of exacting revenge for the continued road maulings through actual play - that is, shooting, scoring, winning - they wouldn't be left with attempting to claim a pound of flesh from their opponents at the end of games. In a way, it was good to see the Flames get angry, to see them defend themselves and their pride after a fashion...it's just too bad it's had to come down to this level.
McLennan suspended, most likely to end his career. Playfair fined. Iginla rendered nearly irrelevent. And I thought last year's play-off performance was embarrassing.
I'm fully convinced now that this evening's match is all but meaningless. Should they somehow prevail, the Flames have zero hope of beating the Red Wings back in Detroit on Tuesday. A victory tonight would really just be another face-saving excercise for the players and little else.
Fairwell Playfair. I won't miss you when you're gone.
I started out this season with expectations of a division title and a respectable post-season run.
In the wreckage of yet another road implosion, with the Flames staring into the black maw of elimination, I'm left with the unenviable task of defending the antics of a demoralized and frustrated 8th place seed.
What a shitshow this has become.
Unfortunately, many of the issues I pointed out in the prior post were in full display yesterday afternoon in Detroit: lack of ES scoring, an ineffective Jarome Iginla and a PP that was bound to regress back to more realistic numbers at some point.
(Playfair certainly helped the PP come back down to Earth yesterday, though. In the face of an impotent attack, his brilliant mid-game adjustment was to give guys like Amonte and Primeau more PP time.)
And now the players are left with slashes and punches to defend their damaged pride. Were they able, or at least hopeful, of exacting revenge for the continued road maulings through actual play - that is, shooting, scoring, winning - they wouldn't be left with attempting to claim a pound of flesh from their opponents at the end of games. In a way, it was good to see the Flames get angry, to see them defend themselves and their pride after a fashion...it's just too bad it's had to come down to this level.
McLennan suspended, most likely to end his career. Playfair fined. Iginla rendered nearly irrelevent. And I thought last year's play-off performance was embarrassing.
I'm fully convinced now that this evening's match is all but meaningless. Should they somehow prevail, the Flames have zero hope of beating the Red Wings back in Detroit on Tuesday. A victory tonight would really just be another face-saving excercise for the players and little else.
Fairwell Playfair. I won't miss you when you're gone.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Friday, April 20, 2007
Woo-hoo?
Yay! We won! Falmes all teh the way!!!!1!1!!
Im happy that we've made it into a series and recaptured some pride. And it's great that the general fanship has been enlivened 'round these parts by the last 2 victories.
But, to be honest, I haven't seen enough recently to assuage my doubts about this team or to convince me we're actually going to win this baby in the end.
Source(s) of Pessimism:
- The Flames have been outscored at 5on5 the whole series. They've won the special teams battle thus far, largely on the back of some really stellar goaltending, a couple of bounces and a some nice 5on3 opportunities. That's not a formula for success. Even at home, assuming Playfair was getting the match-ups he preferred, the big guns were pretty much silenced at ES.
- Detroit could have won either game at the Dome. The Flames didn't have a chance in any of the games in JLA this entire year. As such, the next 3 contests - two of which occur in Detroit - seem rather winnable for the Red Wings. Not so much for the Flames.
- Jarome Iginla still isn't the guy I expected to see in the play-offs. While Miikka Kiprusoff has elevated his play to new, astounding heights, Jarome continues to look "just alright" to me. His GWG in the 3rd contest was notable and his pass to set-up Langkow's break-away last night was great. Aside from that - meh. If Iggy was playing like the unstoppable force he was in 03/04 or, even, November and December of this year, I'd have more reason to believe the Flames might just pull-off an upset...
till that happens (or if), I remain extremely skeptical of this team's chances to advance.
- Jim Playfair. He still does little to incite any confidence in me. his penchant for preferring the experienced (veterans: Zyuzin, Warrener, Amonte) to the exuberant (kids: Giordano, Lombardi, Moss) despite performance and results drives me nuts (although I'm not doubt exaggerating this failing more than a tad). He still hasn't found a way to get Iggy away from Lidstrom and I don't like the fact that Conroy remains on the top line.
Oh well. The next 3 games will prove if my criticisms of Nervous Jimmy are unfounded or not.
- Rhett Warrner. Has been equal parts bad and bad+. I postulated earlier in the season that anyone who plays with Warrener suddenly looks inept themselves. Anyone watching last night's contest can vouch for the fact that the Stuart/Warrener pairing frequently looked like the worst one on the ice for the Flames. They were on for both Red Wing's goals against, not to mention the fact that Rhett got ANOTHER penalty at a critical juncture of the game. Yeah, yeah, Warrener has been standing in for Regehr on the top pairing - but there's no question he's struggled while doing so.
Even if Reggie comes back, I assume Warrener will plop back down into the 6th position and usurp Giordano's roster spot. All things being equal, I quite honestly prefer the latter to the former at this point. Warrener isn't that effective in any area on the ice these days. At least Gio can add to the attack now and then.
So there's your dose of dour, Flames blogger cynicism folks. I accept and welcome all the inevitable "stick in the mud" comments.
Im happy that we've made it into a series and recaptured some pride. And it's great that the general fanship has been enlivened 'round these parts by the last 2 victories.
But, to be honest, I haven't seen enough recently to assuage my doubts about this team or to convince me we're actually going to win this baby in the end.
Source(s) of Pessimism:
- The Flames have been outscored at 5on5 the whole series. They've won the special teams battle thus far, largely on the back of some really stellar goaltending, a couple of bounces and a some nice 5on3 opportunities. That's not a formula for success. Even at home, assuming Playfair was getting the match-ups he preferred, the big guns were pretty much silenced at ES.
- Detroit could have won either game at the Dome. The Flames didn't have a chance in any of the games in JLA this entire year. As such, the next 3 contests - two of which occur in Detroit - seem rather winnable for the Red Wings. Not so much for the Flames.
- Jarome Iginla still isn't the guy I expected to see in the play-offs. While Miikka Kiprusoff has elevated his play to new, astounding heights, Jarome continues to look "just alright" to me. His GWG in the 3rd contest was notable and his pass to set-up Langkow's break-away last night was great. Aside from that - meh. If Iggy was playing like the unstoppable force he was in 03/04 or, even, November and December of this year, I'd have more reason to believe the Flames might just pull-off an upset...
till that happens (or if), I remain extremely skeptical of this team's chances to advance.
- Jim Playfair. He still does little to incite any confidence in me. his penchant for preferring the experienced (veterans: Zyuzin, Warrener, Amonte) to the exuberant (kids: Giordano, Lombardi, Moss) despite performance and results drives me nuts (although I'm not doubt exaggerating this failing more than a tad). He still hasn't found a way to get Iggy away from Lidstrom and I don't like the fact that Conroy remains on the top line.
Oh well. The next 3 games will prove if my criticisms of Nervous Jimmy are unfounded or not.
- Rhett Warrner. Has been equal parts bad and bad+. I postulated earlier in the season that anyone who plays with Warrener suddenly looks inept themselves. Anyone watching last night's contest can vouch for the fact that the Stuart/Warrener pairing frequently looked like the worst one on the ice for the Flames. They were on for both Red Wing's goals against, not to mention the fact that Rhett got ANOTHER penalty at a critical juncture of the game. Yeah, yeah, Warrener has been standing in for Regehr on the top pairing - but there's no question he's struggled while doing so.
Even if Reggie comes back, I assume Warrener will plop back down into the 6th position and usurp Giordano's roster spot. All things being equal, I quite honestly prefer the latter to the former at this point. Warrener isn't that effective in any area on the ice these days. At least Gio can add to the attack now and then.
So there's your dose of dour, Flames blogger cynicism folks. I accept and welcome all the inevitable "stick in the mud" comments.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Oh Yes I Did!!!!
Did What? Score tickets to Game 4!!!! I better freaking see Giordano on there or I will walk from my seat down to the players box to give Playfair a kick in the junk.
My ticket :D
I'll also post a video later in the day of the pre-game show that I took once it finishes uploading on youtube.
GO FLAMES GO!!!!!!
My ticket :D
I'll also post a video later in the day of the pre-game show that I took once it finishes uploading on youtube.
Oh For the Love of...
From today's Calgary Herald...
"You had guys stepping up and doing what they had to do," said Craig Conroy, referring to Giordano, a rookie, and Andrei Zyuzin. "They looked like they were in form and they were excited to get in there. They did some real good things early. When you feel confident, when you feel like, 'Hey, you know what? I can make some plays. I can do some good things out here,' that's when good things happen. After Gio scored the goal, he was unbelievable the rest of the game."
Now, with the Wings up 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, Giordano may or may not dress for tonight's Game 4 at the Pengrowth Saddledome. (emphasis mine)
You have got to be F'ing kidding me. Of the 3 stand-ins - Hale, Giordano and Zyuzin - Gio has clearly proven himself the most useful. If his performance from last game doesn't at least earn him the default 6th position for now, I don't know what the hell he has to do to make this team.
"You had guys stepping up and doing what they had to do," said Craig Conroy, referring to Giordano, a rookie, and Andrei Zyuzin. "They looked like they were in form and they were excited to get in there. They did some real good things early. When you feel confident, when you feel like, 'Hey, you know what? I can make some plays. I can do some good things out here,' that's when good things happen. After Gio scored the goal, he was unbelievable the rest of the game."
Now, with the Wings up 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, Giordano may or may not dress for tonight's Game 4 at the Pengrowth Saddledome. (emphasis mine)
You have got to be F'ing kidding me. Of the 3 stand-ins - Hale, Giordano and Zyuzin - Gio has clearly proven himself the most useful. If his performance from last game doesn't at least earn him the default 6th position for now, I don't know what the hell he has to do to make this team.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Saddledome: Sea of Red
Hockey Jesus
This is a concept the Edmonton bloggers kicked around in regards to Robbie Schremp earlier in the year.
Now, I'm thinking the Flames have their own personal savior: Mark Giordano.
He's out of the line-up: the team struggles badly, getting horribly outplayed in every facet of the game.
He's in the line-up: vast improvement in all areas of play, more shots on net, more goals for, less scoring chances for the opposition. Not to mention, he buries an all-important 3rd period PP marker.
I can't think of another single variable that could account for this turn-around. I mean, sure, the team was back on home ice, but...what difference could that possibly make?
Now, I'm thinking the Flames have their own personal savior: Mark Giordano.
He's out of the line-up: the team struggles badly, getting horribly outplayed in every facet of the game.
He's in the line-up: vast improvement in all areas of play, more shots on net, more goals for, less scoring chances for the opposition. Not to mention, he buries an all-important 3rd period PP marker.
I can't think of another single variable that could account for this turn-around. I mean, sure, the team was back on home ice, but...what difference could that possibly make?
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Preview, Flames, Play-offs BLAH BLAH BLAH
Well, Im going to tough it out till the bitter end.
I expect the Flames to come out better tonight...just because that's what they did pretty much all year at home. Playfair won't have to work too hard for the required match-ups and the crowd will prod the team just beyond the "blase lethargy" they've displayed the past 2 contests.
It's going to take a whole lot for the Flames to actually win this game, however. The gap between what they've done and where they need to be in order to beat the Wings is a basically a huge, near-bottomless chasm. The difference between Al Strachan and Eric Duhatschek big. Hoping for a respectable effort may be more realistic.
The main obstacle facing Calgary tonight (beyond, you know...themselves) is the lack of Robyn Regehr. Outside of Reggie, I'm not sure we have anyone that can competently match-up against the Zetterberg line. Sure, Nervous Jimmy gets the last line change, but who does he send out? The Yelle trio + Warrener and Stuart (shudder...Warrener)? Phaneuf and Hammer plus the big guns? At this point, it seems like a crap shoot, given how the entire roster has played. Might as well dress McCarty and Goddard and let them have a go. Before the series, I would have been pretty comfortable with a "power on power" strategy, but now...?
Speaking of "dressing", Giordano BETTER be in the line-up tonight. If I see Zyuzin take even one shift I might just start punching random strangers in the throat. I'm resigned to the Flames losing this series, but I reserve the right to get really annoyed at outright stupidity nonetheless.
Anyways, obligatory Go Flames Go! Let's at least try to win ONE of these games...
I expect the Flames to come out better tonight...just because that's what they did pretty much all year at home. Playfair won't have to work too hard for the required match-ups and the crowd will prod the team just beyond the "blase lethargy" they've displayed the past 2 contests.
It's going to take a whole lot for the Flames to actually win this game, however. The gap between what they've done and where they need to be in order to beat the Wings is a basically a huge, near-bottomless chasm. The difference between Al Strachan and Eric Duhatschek big. Hoping for a respectable effort may be more realistic.
The main obstacle facing Calgary tonight (beyond, you know...themselves) is the lack of Robyn Regehr. Outside of Reggie, I'm not sure we have anyone that can competently match-up against the Zetterberg line. Sure, Nervous Jimmy gets the last line change, but who does he send out? The Yelle trio + Warrener and Stuart (shudder...Warrener)? Phaneuf and Hammer plus the big guns? At this point, it seems like a crap shoot, given how the entire roster has played. Might as well dress McCarty and Goddard and let them have a go. Before the series, I would have been pretty comfortable with a "power on power" strategy, but now...?
Speaking of "dressing", Giordano BETTER be in the line-up tonight. If I see Zyuzin take even one shift I might just start punching random strangers in the throat. I'm resigned to the Flames losing this series, but I reserve the right to get really annoyed at outright stupidity nonetheless.
Anyways, obligatory Go Flames Go! Let's at least try to win ONE of these games...
I Wish I said it Like That
Matt has just a killer post over at Battle of Alberta today. He tackles almost all of my pet issues - Playfair's coaching, Amonte sucking, the poor bench management, the absence of Mark Giordano - masterfully.
Highly recommended.
Highly recommended.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Erratically Pointing Fingers
George Johnson has an article in today's Herald which goes about cataloging the Flames various failings in the first couple of games in the series and then concludes the piece with this baffling cop-out "explanation":
Maybe the answer, though, isn't so complicated. Maybe it's as simple as the Detroit Red Wings being a helluva hockey team. As simple as the Flames maybe being in over their head.
Not only does that not actually explain anything, it's a baffling about face for an article entitled "Shame on Miikka's Missing Mates", that seems intent for it's majority on portioning blame onto the Flames in steaming heaps. For example, about half-way through the article, Johnson calls out the big guns,
"Jarome Iginla, get the lead out. It's your team.
Step up and take hold of it. Two shots in two games isn't near enough (Wings' D-man Mathieu Schneider had 10 on Sunday alone).
Alex Tanguay, Kristian Huselius and Daymond Langkow. Ditch that Invisibility Cloak you so obviously nicked from Harry Potter."
Look - if the Flames are truly that overmatched, it really isn't the player's fault, is it? I mean, if Detroit is truly that superior, why harp on the Jarome and company...they don't have much of chance anyhow. Right?
Let me clarify by saying I think Johnson's statement is at once valid and simultaneously ridiculous. Valid, because based on the evidence supplied so far, the Flames are obviously "in over their head". Ridiculous in that he offers this as a stand-alone explanation for what's occurred thus far in the series. That Calgary is getting beaten by a better team is little more than a self-evident observation. "Why?" is Calgary so much inferior to the Red Wings is the actual question Flames fans are asking themselves. In a series picked as a coin-flip by many observers, between two teams that have similar talent levels at every level of the roster, the Flames have so far been humiliated and out-classed by a vast margin. Yup, Detroit is the better team, clearly...but, the fact of the matter is, they shouldn't be. Not to this degree, at least. Even the most blindly devoted Red Wings fan is probably surprised by how easily Detroit has waltzed through the first two contests.
Of course, it's no secret what theory I subscribe to when it comes to explaining the Flame's misfortunes. When a roster this loaded fails this completely to execute any kind of basic, cohesive strategy, look no further than the clashing colors behind the bench. Johnson flippantly dismisses the "coach has lost the team theory" near the end his article, but I submit his claim that the Red Wings "are just better" fails to even qualify as an explanation at all.
Perhaps his final sentence is the biggest indictment of Playfair possible and lends more support to my line of thinking: Calgary's expectations of this roster have shrunk to the point of accepting, at face value, the conclusion that Red Wings are so galatically better than the Flames - that ridiculous, dry-ass-rape blow-outs are basically to be expected when we play them. Now, look at the assembled pieces of each squad - the scorers, the defence, the goaltending - and wonder how the prospects of success have sunk so low.
The conclusion seems like an obvious one to me.
Maybe the answer, though, isn't so complicated. Maybe it's as simple as the Detroit Red Wings being a helluva hockey team. As simple as the Flames maybe being in over their head.
Not only does that not actually explain anything, it's a baffling about face for an article entitled "Shame on Miikka's Missing Mates", that seems intent for it's majority on portioning blame onto the Flames in steaming heaps. For example, about half-way through the article, Johnson calls out the big guns,
"Jarome Iginla, get the lead out. It's your team.
Step up and take hold of it. Two shots in two games isn't near enough (Wings' D-man Mathieu Schneider had 10 on Sunday alone).
Alex Tanguay, Kristian Huselius and Daymond Langkow. Ditch that Invisibility Cloak you so obviously nicked from Harry Potter."
Look - if the Flames are truly that overmatched, it really isn't the player's fault, is it? I mean, if Detroit is truly that superior, why harp on the Jarome and company...they don't have much of chance anyhow. Right?
Let me clarify by saying I think Johnson's statement is at once valid and simultaneously ridiculous. Valid, because based on the evidence supplied so far, the Flames are obviously "in over their head". Ridiculous in that he offers this as a stand-alone explanation for what's occurred thus far in the series. That Calgary is getting beaten by a better team is little more than a self-evident observation. "Why?" is Calgary so much inferior to the Red Wings is the actual question Flames fans are asking themselves. In a series picked as a coin-flip by many observers, between two teams that have similar talent levels at every level of the roster, the Flames have so far been humiliated and out-classed by a vast margin. Yup, Detroit is the better team, clearly...but, the fact of the matter is, they shouldn't be. Not to this degree, at least. Even the most blindly devoted Red Wings fan is probably surprised by how easily Detroit has waltzed through the first two contests.
Of course, it's no secret what theory I subscribe to when it comes to explaining the Flame's misfortunes. When a roster this loaded fails this completely to execute any kind of basic, cohesive strategy, look no further than the clashing colors behind the bench. Johnson flippantly dismisses the "coach has lost the team theory" near the end his article, but I submit his claim that the Red Wings "are just better" fails to even qualify as an explanation at all.
Perhaps his final sentence is the biggest indictment of Playfair possible and lends more support to my line of thinking: Calgary's expectations of this roster have shrunk to the point of accepting, at face value, the conclusion that Red Wings are so galatically better than the Flames - that ridiculous, dry-ass-rape blow-outs are basically to be expected when we play them. Now, look at the assembled pieces of each squad - the scorers, the defence, the goaltending - and wonder how the prospects of success have sunk so low.
The conclusion seems like an obvious one to me.
This is What It's Come To...
A brief exchange of IM's between myself and fellow blogger Alex, regarding the Flame's current situaion:
- = | A l e x | = - says:
want to do something for the game tomorrow?
- = | A l e x | = - says:
we'll go get some wings to eat too
- = | A l e x | = - says:
and then do some voodoo with a live chicken
- = | A l e x | = - says:
cuz it seems like magic is the only thing that can save the flames now
MG says:
Black magic...sell your soul kind of stuff.
MG says:
A Faustian deal is in order. I Suggest we offer Playfair's soul in the bargain.
- = | A l e x | = - says:
want to do something for the game tomorrow?
- = | A l e x | = - says:
we'll go get some wings to eat too
- = | A l e x | = - says:
and then do some voodoo with a live chicken
- = | A l e x | = - says:
cuz it seems like magic is the only thing that can save the flames now
MG says:
Black magic...sell your soul kind of stuff.
MG says:
A Faustian deal is in order. I Suggest we offer Playfair's soul in the bargain.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Making a case for Mark Giordano
So rather than sit around a mope till game 2, I figured I'd occupy my hockey-obsessed brain with something a little more useful (useful meaning: less whiny and obstinate).
Recently both Matt and Kyle mentioned Mark Giordano in seperate posts. Both perceive him in a postive light, which seems to jive with my own impressions of the young defensemen (despite the fact he's been given the stinkeye by the Calgary coaching staff for a large portion of the season). In the second half the year, Giordano has basically been the Flames "8th defenseman" behind the likes of Warrener, Hale and Zyuzin. He ended up playing in only 48 games, even though Rhett Warrener was skating around with "full-body soreness" for a sizable portion of the year and Andrei Zyuzin...well...sucks.
Given that I and other Flames fans seem to like Giordano, I set out to discover what the available objective data had to say about the rookie: was the coaching staff right in sitting him in favor of just about anyone else? Do we all have our heads up our asses, mezmerized by Gio's swarthy complexion and thick eyebrows? Or is Playfair making another mistake?
Analysis:
The basic stats for Marky Mark aren't terribly helpful because, well, he was a 6th defenseman who didn't play all that much this year. He averaged about 13 minutes a night on the 3rd pairing and occassionally got some PP time. In the 48 games played, Gio managed 7 goals and 8 assists for 15 points. Three of his markers came on the PP and two of them were game-winners. In comparison, Rhett Warrener accrued 4 goals and 6 assists in 17 minutes per night over 64 games. The much maligned Andrea Susan scored once and added 5 assists in his 49 games with about the same amout of ice time as the guy in question. Giordano was +7, Warrener +6 and Zyuzin -2.
The basic stats give us a foundation of an arguement, but they obviously don't tell the whole story. The next step is to consider the basic+ figures for all three players.
I published the ESP/60 and PPP/60 numbers in the Calgary/Detroit series preview. At ES, Giordano put up the best rate of production of any Calgary defensemen with a 1.21 ESP/60 number. In contrast Warrener had the lowest rate of any regular player at 0.50 ESP/60 and Zyuzin wasn't much better, putting up 0.67 even-strength points per 60 minutes of ice. Of course, the problem of "small-sample size" rears it's ugly head in this instance. because Giordano only played about 470 minutes all season, one could argue his rate is inflated. which is sensible, considering his number is a full 0.40 better than Phanuef's - the implication being that Gio would have outscored The Dion significantly had they played equitable amounts. Which is probably a false conclusion.
However, one can compare Giordano to the likes of Warrener and especially Zyuzin a little easier. Rhett played less than double the ES minutes of Giordano (814) and Zyuzin played almost the same amount (520.5).
(As a point of comparison, Phaneuf played 1336 minutes at ES).
Now, assuming that:
a.) smaller ice-time samples have the potential to inflate production rates thanks to the increased influence of chance on the resultant figures, and therefore, b.) the closer players are in ice-time, the more comparable they tend to be,
one can reasonably conclude that Giordano is a superior option, in terms of offense, than Zyuzin and likely Warrener as well. Hell, the difference between Susan's production rate and Giordano's is over 0.50 ESP/60, despite similar ES minutes. Over, say, 1200 minutes, that's an additional 10 points, assuming the variance between the two players would remain constant*. The difference between Warrener and Giordano is even greater, though their minutes are little more disparate. However, it's safe to say that Giordano's efficiency wouldn't fall to Warrener's level, even if his minutes were to jump up around the 800+ mark. Contextual knonwledge renders such an assumption probable: Warrener has the smallest production rate on the team and has never in his career been offensively adept. Giordano, on the other, produced well during his limited time in the NHL and led his AHL squad in scoring last year - despite being a blueliner.
(*what I mean here is, it's safe to say the player's production rates would fall to some extent as their minutes increased. The assumption here is the difference between their rates would always remain close to 0.50 ESP/60).
The PPP/60 figures aren't very helpful in this comparison since Warrener's number (7.50 PPP/60) is based on the single point he got in his 8 minutes of PP ice during the season. Zyuzin only skated for about 44 minutes of ice on the PP and yet scored not single point at all. He should have an inflated rate, but...that's just how bad Zyuzin is. Giordano played about 120 minutes with the man-advantage and only put up a fairly pedestrian 2.31 PPP/60 number. Still, all things being equal, I have no problem concluding that Marky Mark is, again, the best offensive option among the 3. There's obviously a reason Warrener doesn't garner any PP time and Zyuzin, as mentioned already, just sucks.
Naturally, confining the analysis of defensemen to their production rates isn't terribly helpful. A blueliners value lies as much (or more) in his ability to defend as opposed to score. Warrener's production efficiency rating is basically moot if he's able to shut-down opposing scorers with a high degree of efficacy.
Enter the advanced statistics of Gabriel Dejardin's amazing website behindthenet.ca. The helpful link at left will take you to a big, intimidating table filled with Calgary player names, numbers and some (+/-) symbols. The stuff to pay attention to is "Qual Comp." and "On/Off +/-".
The first column in question - Quality of Competition - basically rates the degree to which a player faces the opposition's "big guns". As Dejardins explains, this particular metric is calculated by:
"averag(ing) (the) On/Off-Ice +/- of the opposing players a player faces."
The on/off-ice +/- number is the difference between the team's ES scoring rates when that individual player is one the ice and on the bench. The "scoring rate" is calculated as GF/60 (goals for/60 minutes), and they can be found on the right side of the table. Therefore, a positive (+) on/off stat means the team scores more when player X is on the ice. A negative (-) means the team tends to get scored on more with player Y on the ice. And thus the higher the (+) the more player contributes to the team's GD (goal differential), and, by extention, win record.
So, let's say Kris Draper is consistently sent out against Iginla, Langkow, Tanguay, Stuart and Regehr during round one. His "Quality of Opposition" rating would be the average of those 5 player's on/off +/- figures:
Iggy - 0.68
Tanguay - 0.50
Langkow - 1.31
Stuart - 0.76
Regehr - 0.79
--------------
Drapers Qual of Comp = 0.808
Back to the question at hand. The table shows that Warrener has faced tougher competition this season than Gio, (0.039 versus -0.066), with Zyuzin facing roughly similar opponents (-0.040). Overall, it looks like Marky Mark was the most sheltered defenseman on the team this year, which is to be expected given he is a young rookie.
Score one for Rhett. Another mark against Susan.
The adjusted +/- numbers tend to favor Giordano, however. The Flames scored at a net rate of 0.90 GF/60 when Giordano was playing versus just 0.22 GF/60 when Warrener was on the ice and -0.46 GF/60 for Zyuzin. When each player was off the ice, the team scored at a net rate of 0.76, 0.68 and 0.52 for Susan, Warrener and Giordano, respectively. Keep in mind, a lower number is better for the off-ice +/- rate. A higher number means the team's net scoring is higher when player X is on the bench.
The resultant on/off +/- (the difference of on-ice and off-ice net scoring rates: high on-ice # minus a low off-ice # equals an effective player) numbers are 0.37 for Gio, -0.46 for Warrener and -1.22 for Zyuzin.
What does all this mean?
It means Warrener plays against stiffer competition than Giordano, but doesn't necessarily get the job done. The confounding element here, however, is that Giordano could conceivably struggle against higher competition, which would likely result in a lower on/off +/- number for him. Let's score the Warrener/Gio comparison a wash.
Zyuzin, on the hand, does indeed suck. He plays against weaker opponents and still manages to contribute negatively (-1.22) to the team's scoring rate. Basically, The Flames score more when he's off the ice and score less when he's on to the tune of 1.22 goals per hour - even though he faces mainly 4th liners and checkers. Ugh.
Other Observations:
- Notice that several of my favorite whipping boys have the worst on/off +/- ratings: Amonte (-1.49), Friesen (-1.52) and, before he left, Andrew Ference (-1.72). None of the 3 faced the toughest opponents (0.026, 0.032 and 0.001 respectively) and yet they all clearly struggled. This is an especially pointed indictment of Playfair's tendeceny to throw Amonte on whenever the Flames are trailing by a goal or two at the end of the 3rd period. Everyone else seems to recoginze instinctively that Tony is a poor option for such an assigment but...there it is.
The good news is - Ference was traded for Stuart (take a look at the latter's metrics - WAY better) and both Amonte and Friesen will be jettisoned into the ether of free agency (and probably retirement or obscurity) in the off-season.
- I gave Regehr a hard time earlier in the season, but he is clearly the Flames best d-man according to the advanced stats. He faces the best quality competition (0.068) and still manages the 3rd highest on/off +/- rating (0.79) on the team behind Langkow and Juice. All this despite having relatively poor linemates (quality of teammates -0.01).
- Marvel at the on/off +/- figures of Huselius and Langs (1.00, 1.31). What a great season for these guys.
- Phaneuf still has some developing to do before he can be considering a top-notch defender. His quality of comp wasn't very high (0.006) and yet he managed a negative (-0.20) on/off +/- rating. Keep in mind, these advanced stats basically omit PP contributions, where Phaneuf excels. The other positive is the team scored at a high rate when he was on the ice (3.46 GF/60), meaning he just needs to get that on-ice GA/60 rate (3.01) to go down in order for him to improve (as a comparison, the team's rate of goals against/60 while Regehr was on the ice was 1.84).
Conclusions:
Giordano is a better scorer than both Zyuzin and Warrener, although he does need to be sheltered from the other team's big guns. He had the best adjusted +/- figure of all three defensemen, with the caveat that he faced the "easiest" opposition. Overall, I would consider him at least on par with Warrener and a vastly superior option to Andrea.
In regards to the questions put forth at the onset of this post I'd say: We don't have our heads up our asses and Playfair did (is?) making a mistake keeping Giordano out of the line-up.
Recently both Matt and Kyle mentioned Mark Giordano in seperate posts. Both perceive him in a postive light, which seems to jive with my own impressions of the young defensemen (despite the fact he's been given the stinkeye by the Calgary coaching staff for a large portion of the season). In the second half the year, Giordano has basically been the Flames "8th defenseman" behind the likes of Warrener, Hale and Zyuzin. He ended up playing in only 48 games, even though Rhett Warrener was skating around with "full-body soreness" for a sizable portion of the year and Andrei Zyuzin...well...sucks.
Given that I and other Flames fans seem to like Giordano, I set out to discover what the available objective data had to say about the rookie: was the coaching staff right in sitting him in favor of just about anyone else? Do we all have our heads up our asses, mezmerized by Gio's swarthy complexion and thick eyebrows? Or is Playfair making another mistake?
Analysis:
The basic stats for Marky Mark aren't terribly helpful because, well, he was a 6th defenseman who didn't play all that much this year. He averaged about 13 minutes a night on the 3rd pairing and occassionally got some PP time. In the 48 games played, Gio managed 7 goals and 8 assists for 15 points. Three of his markers came on the PP and two of them were game-winners. In comparison, Rhett Warrener accrued 4 goals and 6 assists in 17 minutes per night over 64 games. The much maligned Andrea Susan scored once and added 5 assists in his 49 games with about the same amout of ice time as the guy in question. Giordano was +7, Warrener +6 and Zyuzin -2.
The basic stats give us a foundation of an arguement, but they obviously don't tell the whole story. The next step is to consider the basic+ figures for all three players.
I published the ESP/60 and PPP/60 numbers in the Calgary/Detroit series preview. At ES, Giordano put up the best rate of production of any Calgary defensemen with a 1.21 ESP/60 number. In contrast Warrener had the lowest rate of any regular player at 0.50 ESP/60 and Zyuzin wasn't much better, putting up 0.67 even-strength points per 60 minutes of ice. Of course, the problem of "small-sample size" rears it's ugly head in this instance. because Giordano only played about 470 minutes all season, one could argue his rate is inflated. which is sensible, considering his number is a full 0.40 better than Phanuef's - the implication being that Gio would have outscored The Dion significantly had they played equitable amounts. Which is probably a false conclusion.
However, one can compare Giordano to the likes of Warrener and especially Zyuzin a little easier. Rhett played less than double the ES minutes of Giordano (814) and Zyuzin played almost the same amount (520.5).
(As a point of comparison, Phaneuf played 1336 minutes at ES).
Now, assuming that:
a.) smaller ice-time samples have the potential to inflate production rates thanks to the increased influence of chance on the resultant figures, and therefore, b.) the closer players are in ice-time, the more comparable they tend to be,
one can reasonably conclude that Giordano is a superior option, in terms of offense, than Zyuzin and likely Warrener as well. Hell, the difference between Susan's production rate and Giordano's is over 0.50 ESP/60, despite similar ES minutes. Over, say, 1200 minutes, that's an additional 10 points, assuming the variance between the two players would remain constant*. The difference between Warrener and Giordano is even greater, though their minutes are little more disparate. However, it's safe to say that Giordano's efficiency wouldn't fall to Warrener's level, even if his minutes were to jump up around the 800+ mark. Contextual knonwledge renders such an assumption probable: Warrener has the smallest production rate on the team and has never in his career been offensively adept. Giordano, on the other, produced well during his limited time in the NHL and led his AHL squad in scoring last year - despite being a blueliner.
(*what I mean here is, it's safe to say the player's production rates would fall to some extent as their minutes increased. The assumption here is the difference between their rates would always remain close to 0.50 ESP/60).
The PPP/60 figures aren't very helpful in this comparison since Warrener's number (7.50 PPP/60) is based on the single point he got in his 8 minutes of PP ice during the season. Zyuzin only skated for about 44 minutes of ice on the PP and yet scored not single point at all. He should have an inflated rate, but...that's just how bad Zyuzin is. Giordano played about 120 minutes with the man-advantage and only put up a fairly pedestrian 2.31 PPP/60 number. Still, all things being equal, I have no problem concluding that Marky Mark is, again, the best offensive option among the 3. There's obviously a reason Warrener doesn't garner any PP time and Zyuzin, as mentioned already, just sucks.
Naturally, confining the analysis of defensemen to their production rates isn't terribly helpful. A blueliners value lies as much (or more) in his ability to defend as opposed to score. Warrener's production efficiency rating is basically moot if he's able to shut-down opposing scorers with a high degree of efficacy.
Enter the advanced statistics of Gabriel Dejardin's amazing website behindthenet.ca. The helpful link at left will take you to a big, intimidating table filled with Calgary player names, numbers and some (+/-) symbols. The stuff to pay attention to is "Qual Comp." and "On/Off +/-".
The first column in question - Quality of Competition - basically rates the degree to which a player faces the opposition's "big guns". As Dejardins explains, this particular metric is calculated by:
"averag(ing) (the) On/Off-Ice +/- of the opposing players a player faces."
The on/off-ice +/- number is the difference between the team's ES scoring rates when that individual player is one the ice and on the bench. The "scoring rate" is calculated as GF/60 (goals for/60 minutes), and they can be found on the right side of the table. Therefore, a positive (+) on/off stat means the team scores more when player X is on the ice. A negative (-) means the team tends to get scored on more with player Y on the ice. And thus the higher the (+) the more player contributes to the team's GD (goal differential), and, by extention, win record.
So, let's say Kris Draper is consistently sent out against Iginla, Langkow, Tanguay, Stuart and Regehr during round one. His "Quality of Opposition" rating would be the average of those 5 player's on/off +/- figures:
Iggy - 0.68
Tanguay - 0.50
Langkow - 1.31
Stuart - 0.76
Regehr - 0.79
--------------
Drapers Qual of Comp = 0.808
Back to the question at hand. The table shows that Warrener has faced tougher competition this season than Gio, (0.039 versus -0.066), with Zyuzin facing roughly similar opponents (-0.040). Overall, it looks like Marky Mark was the most sheltered defenseman on the team this year, which is to be expected given he is a young rookie.
Score one for Rhett. Another mark against Susan.
The adjusted +/- numbers tend to favor Giordano, however. The Flames scored at a net rate of 0.90 GF/60 when Giordano was playing versus just 0.22 GF/60 when Warrener was on the ice and -0.46 GF/60 for Zyuzin. When each player was off the ice, the team scored at a net rate of 0.76, 0.68 and 0.52 for Susan, Warrener and Giordano, respectively. Keep in mind, a lower number is better for the off-ice +/- rate. A higher number means the team's net scoring is higher when player X is on the bench.
The resultant on/off +/- (the difference of on-ice and off-ice net scoring rates: high on-ice # minus a low off-ice # equals an effective player) numbers are 0.37 for Gio, -0.46 for Warrener and -1.22 for Zyuzin.
What does all this mean?
It means Warrener plays against stiffer competition than Giordano, but doesn't necessarily get the job done. The confounding element here, however, is that Giordano could conceivably struggle against higher competition, which would likely result in a lower on/off +/- number for him. Let's score the Warrener/Gio comparison a wash.
Zyuzin, on the hand, does indeed suck. He plays against weaker opponents and still manages to contribute negatively (-1.22) to the team's scoring rate. Basically, The Flames score more when he's off the ice and score less when he's on to the tune of 1.22 goals per hour - even though he faces mainly 4th liners and checkers. Ugh.
Other Observations:
- Notice that several of my favorite whipping boys have the worst on/off +/- ratings: Amonte (-1.49), Friesen (-1.52) and, before he left, Andrew Ference (-1.72). None of the 3 faced the toughest opponents (0.026, 0.032 and 0.001 respectively) and yet they all clearly struggled. This is an especially pointed indictment of Playfair's tendeceny to throw Amonte on whenever the Flames are trailing by a goal or two at the end of the 3rd period. Everyone else seems to recoginze instinctively that Tony is a poor option for such an assigment but...there it is.
The good news is - Ference was traded for Stuart (take a look at the latter's metrics - WAY better) and both Amonte and Friesen will be jettisoned into the ether of free agency (and probably retirement or obscurity) in the off-season.
- I gave Regehr a hard time earlier in the season, but he is clearly the Flames best d-man according to the advanced stats. He faces the best quality competition (0.068) and still manages the 3rd highest on/off +/- rating (0.79) on the team behind Langkow and Juice. All this despite having relatively poor linemates (quality of teammates -0.01).
- Marvel at the on/off +/- figures of Huselius and Langs (1.00, 1.31). What a great season for these guys.
- Phaneuf still has some developing to do before he can be considering a top-notch defender. His quality of comp wasn't very high (0.006) and yet he managed a negative (-0.20) on/off +/- rating. Keep in mind, these advanced stats basically omit PP contributions, where Phaneuf excels. The other positive is the team scored at a high rate when he was on the ice (3.46 GF/60), meaning he just needs to get that on-ice GA/60 rate (3.01) to go down in order for him to improve (as a comparison, the team's rate of goals against/60 while Regehr was on the ice was 1.84).
Conclusions:
Giordano is a better scorer than both Zyuzin and Warrener, although he does need to be sheltered from the other team's big guns. He had the best adjusted +/- figure of all three defensemen, with the caveat that he faced the "easiest" opposition. Overall, I would consider him at least on par with Warrener and a vastly superior option to Andrea.
In regards to the questions put forth at the onset of this post I'd say: We don't have our heads up our asses and Playfair did (is?) making a mistake keeping Giordano out of the line-up.
Friday, April 13, 2007
A Sigh and a Shrug
What can I say? The morning after the game 1 shellacking I have to admit - I'm not that surprised.
Had last night's game been the first example of shocking ineptitude, a wholly unique occurrence as compared to their typical performance, perhaps I could act stunned today. But that's just not true. Sadly, Calgary pulled this same act all too frequently this season: the inability to execute elementary plays, the total absence of cohesion, of intelligence, of discipline.
I had hoped they'd learned their lesson in the first 82 games. That the added excitement and meaning in the post-season would rid them of their regrettable road tendencies. However, sitting through the pitiable display last night, it appears that the exact opposite, in fact, happened.
Calgary columnist George Johnson's piece this morning is titled "All the Dignity of a Finger-Poke in the Eye". I'd say that's pretty accurate.
I wish it was astonishing how completely the Flames failed in their objectives last night. My preview post featured "things to look for" in the contest - things I assumed that Calgary would do to try to win the game. They were, as follows:
crease-crashing, good play from Iginla and Lombardi and playing physically against Datsyuk. Not a single one of these things was even sort of accomplished - or, in the case of the former and latter points, even really attempted. The only prediction I made yesterday that was bulls-eye accurate was the "home-ice advantage" thing. The Wings certainly made the most of it.
"We've got to be ready to play harder, to be stronger out there," said Iginla. "From our point of view, there's a few things we need to adjust."
Said the Captain in the wake of the slaughter last night. Look, I know the guys have to say something in the post-game interviews. But, with that in mind, I am so goddamn sick-to-death of hearing the players spouting stuff like this and doing the exact friggen inverse on the ice. A few things to adjust Jarome? A FEW? The same "few things" that have stunk on the road all year? These issuses, that have been in glaring evidence for the entirety of the season, now you're going to adjust to fix them?
Excuse me if I seem a tad incredulous.
Watching Nervous Jimmy twiddle his chin and chew the inside of his cheek last night, it occurred to me that the team seems to mirror his "fear that is barely held in check" demeanor. Think of it - there's Playfair on the bench, yanking at the shirt of his collar as if it were a hangman's noose. And, simultaneously, there's the Flames on the ice, nervously bobbling pucks in the neutral zone and skating pensively into the corners; looking every bit as unsure of their future as their poorly dressed skipper. At this point, I'm uncertain whether a sudden, (un)fortunate accident to Playfair's person would cause the players to explode in ruckus celebration or just simply slump sullenly and in unison, relieved at the opportunity to finally give-up and expire themselves...
After the relatively disappointing season and now the first game debacle (which, quite honestly, could have been a double-digit raping had Kipper not been the lone bright spot for the Calgary squad) I have warring voices in my head in regards to the rest of the series. A cynical part of me wants the Flames to drop the next 3 straight and bow out in humiliating fashion. Such a turn of events would no doubt result in the cleaving of Nervous Jimmy's overripe melon by the inexorable descent of the ever-present Sword of Damocles that has been perilously dangling above him all season.
Of course, there's another part of me that still wants the Flames to shake it off and make a series of it. I look at the potential held by the roster and still some vain hope swells within me. "We should be able to win." I think. "We still can win provided we get our shit together."
The final proviso is now seeming unrealizable at this junction, however. I've had the same thought swimming in my skull since October. The players echo it in all their repeated press-published promises to improve. And yet here we are, bemoaning another ignoble performance after a road game. I honestly want to believe the Flames can regain some measure of composure and make a strong go of it, but...
excuse me if I seem incredulous.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Ugh
I guess the question of whether the Flames will ramp up their play on the road in the play-offs has been answered. Loudly.
What a profoundly revolting display by this team.
What a profoundly revolting display by this team.
Flames @ Detroit - Game 1 Preview
Oh boy, here we go...
Pertinent info:
Bertuzzi out with concussion.
Regehr down with a knee injury.
Friesen has a bad torso.
Amonte is getting visibly older by the second.
I like Kristian Huselius.
Stuff to watch for:
Calgary crease-crashing -
We all know Hasek is a good goalie. We also know he's kind of a basket-case. He helped the Flames win the last game of the year between the two clubs by doing a belly-flop in the crease in an attempt to draw a penalty. Ol' loudmouth himself, JR, proclaimed to the world on TSN the other night that Hasek is vulnerable to fits of rage should he detect even the slightest encroachment upon his precious personal space.
As such, I'm hoping to see some Calgary asses pressed firmly into the Dominator's face tonight. The odd brush of an elbow wouldn't hurt either. If Playfair has a brain in his head, you'll see the likes of David Moss and Wayne Primeau glued to the blue paint whenever the Flames are in the Red Wings neck of the woods.
Home-Ice Advantage -
Calgary is lacking Robyn Regehr while Detroit will be getting a rested Henrik Zetterberg back into their line-up. Missing Reggie makes the Flames even more susceptible to line-matching: the de facto top pairing becomes Phaneuf and Hamrlik (not as capable), while Warrener most likely moves up into a top 4 position. THAT means Hale and Zyuzin/Giordano will be getting the 10 minute spot duty this evening, which is a little scary.
While I think Playfair will try to keep Warrener and Stuart out against Zetterberg and Datsyuk, I've no doubt Babcock will find ways to match his top unit against the weaker links on occasion. Hale and partner will be sheltered, but let's hope they're able to hold the fort the odd times they see Zet/Dat/Holm bearing down on them.
Jarooommmmeee Iginla -
Iggy's got a supporting cast this post-season - probably for the first time in his career. Now we get to see what he can do with it. Despite all the talk about increased scoring and added parts, Iginla is still the straw that stirs the drink in Calgary. If he comes out to play like he did against Vancouver in '04, even Lidstrom and Draper will have issues containing him. I'm hoping for a big game from the captain tonight.
Matthew Lombardi -
According to Duncan (or, rather, the Windsor Star), Lombardi skated on the 2nd line with Langkow and Huselius in the most recent practice. Lombo is the Flames fastest players and has the ability to expose weaker defensemen when he's driving wide to the net. If Lombo plays well, he can augment the 2nd unit's potency which may be key to generating offense on the road.
Pavel Datsyuk -
Hit him early, hit him often. If the Flames can disrupt Datsyuk's mojo right away, they may be able to thrust him back into his established play-off rut, thereby neutralizing Detroit's best play maker. Something like this might do the trick:
Or this:
Or this:
Or, when Reggie returns, this:
(Good luck, comrade)
It's gonna be a good one tonight...
Go Flames!
Pertinent info:
Bertuzzi out with concussion.
Regehr down with a knee injury.
Friesen has a bad torso.
Amonte is getting visibly older by the second.
I like Kristian Huselius.
Stuff to watch for:
Calgary crease-crashing -
We all know Hasek is a good goalie. We also know he's kind of a basket-case. He helped the Flames win the last game of the year between the two clubs by doing a belly-flop in the crease in an attempt to draw a penalty. Ol' loudmouth himself, JR, proclaimed to the world on TSN the other night that Hasek is vulnerable to fits of rage should he detect even the slightest encroachment upon his precious personal space.
As such, I'm hoping to see some Calgary asses pressed firmly into the Dominator's face tonight. The odd brush of an elbow wouldn't hurt either. If Playfair has a brain in his head, you'll see the likes of David Moss and Wayne Primeau glued to the blue paint whenever the Flames are in the Red Wings neck of the woods.
Home-Ice Advantage -
Calgary is lacking Robyn Regehr while Detroit will be getting a rested Henrik Zetterberg back into their line-up. Missing Reggie makes the Flames even more susceptible to line-matching: the de facto top pairing becomes Phaneuf and Hamrlik (not as capable), while Warrener most likely moves up into a top 4 position. THAT means Hale and Zyuzin/Giordano will be getting the 10 minute spot duty this evening, which is a little scary.
While I think Playfair will try to keep Warrener and Stuart out against Zetterberg and Datsyuk, I've no doubt Babcock will find ways to match his top unit against the weaker links on occasion. Hale and partner will be sheltered, but let's hope they're able to hold the fort the odd times they see Zet/Dat/Holm bearing down on them.
Jarooommmmeee Iginla -
Iggy's got a supporting cast this post-season - probably for the first time in his career. Now we get to see what he can do with it. Despite all the talk about increased scoring and added parts, Iginla is still the straw that stirs the drink in Calgary. If he comes out to play like he did against Vancouver in '04, even Lidstrom and Draper will have issues containing him. I'm hoping for a big game from the captain tonight.
Matthew Lombardi -
According to Duncan (or, rather, the Windsor Star), Lombardi skated on the 2nd line with Langkow and Huselius in the most recent practice. Lombo is the Flames fastest players and has the ability to expose weaker defensemen when he's driving wide to the net. If Lombo plays well, he can augment the 2nd unit's potency which may be key to generating offense on the road.
Pavel Datsyuk -
Hit him early, hit him often. If the Flames can disrupt Datsyuk's mojo right away, they may be able to thrust him back into his established play-off rut, thereby neutralizing Detroit's best play maker. Something like this might do the trick:
Or this:
Or this:
Or, when Reggie returns, this:
(Good luck, comrade)
It's gonna be a good one tonight...
Go Flames!
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Some Other Takes
The second best thing about the play-offs is the deluge of interesting stuff that is evoked from the hockey blogosphere. Following is a list of some of the more notable and unorthodox takes on the Detroit/Calgary match-up I've thus far encountered on ye old interweb:
Hockey Numbers:
I only understand about a 1/5th of what Chris (Javageek) writes about most of the time, so that probably means he knows what he's talking about. He includes a lot of info in tabular form, and accounts for things I didn't even consider. In the end, his prediction model says Detroit is a 63% favorite to win the series.
On the Forecheck:
The Forechecker hasn't come out with his sure-fire "win-lose" predictions yet, but this post of his does hilight the issue of shot quality in the NHL and lists each play-off team's offensive and defensive contributions to the "shot quality" data set over the regular season. As is noted, the basic assumption is that closer in shots have a better chance of going, ie; are of a better quality.
As you can see from the table, Calgary and Detroit didn't differ significantly during the season in their ability to generate shots from close in (<10 feet) - The Flames apparently averaged 1.56 top quality shots per game while the Red Wings managed 1.54. Detroit did manage more shots from all the remaining areas, including the second best field (10-19 feet). However, Calgary is marginally superior to Detroit in preventing shots from scoring areas, particularly in the <10 feet and 10-19 feet ranges (1.19 and 5.88 allowed versus 1.25 and 6.66). Detroit is the best in the league at deterring some of the longer range volleys, though, meaning we probably can't expect a lot of offense from Phaneuf in this series. It's close, but it looks like this analysis gives Detroit the edge as well. Im not sure if this set controlled for data generated against non-play-off teams, meaning it may be slightly skewed in Detroit's favor. Look back to see how the two teams compare in terms of shooting percentage, which I think is the next step in this analysis...
Do the Thrashers Have Talons?
The Falconer is another mathematically inclined blogger who has employed his own brand of weighted stats and formulae to predict success. In his analysis of the Calgary/Detroit series he notes that:
Detroit's regular season numbers are greatly inflated because they destroyed non-playoff teams outscoring them (+58) but against West playoff teams they were actually outscored themselves (-1) by a goal.
That's what I want to hear! In addition, the Falconer's prediction model suggests that shooting percentage is the single best predictor of post-season success, which actually favors Calgary. Also notice the Flames vastly superior GFA versus Western play-off teams (3.11) as compared to Detroit's (2.66) as well as the differing GD versus WC play-off squads (+12, -1). Things that make you go hmmmmmm...
Covered In Oil:
Bitterness and vitriol. Even in his miserable state, Pleasure Motors manages to summon just enough passion to wish the Flames ill. No math or stats here. Just some hilarious quotes.
Of course, the Flames blogger community already has several good previews as well...take a gander at the Flames blogs at right to see the various ways we all think that Calgary's gonna beat the Red Wings.
Hockey Numbers:
I only understand about a 1/5th of what Chris (Javageek) writes about most of the time, so that probably means he knows what he's talking about. He includes a lot of info in tabular form, and accounts for things I didn't even consider. In the end, his prediction model says Detroit is a 63% favorite to win the series.
On the Forecheck:
The Forechecker hasn't come out with his sure-fire "win-lose" predictions yet, but this post of his does hilight the issue of shot quality in the NHL and lists each play-off team's offensive and defensive contributions to the "shot quality" data set over the regular season. As is noted, the basic assumption is that closer in shots have a better chance of going, ie; are of a better quality.
As you can see from the table, Calgary and Detroit didn't differ significantly during the season in their ability to generate shots from close in (<10 feet) - The Flames apparently averaged 1.56 top quality shots per game while the Red Wings managed 1.54. Detroit did manage more shots from all the remaining areas, including the second best field (10-19 feet). However, Calgary is marginally superior to Detroit in preventing shots from scoring areas, particularly in the <10 feet and 10-19 feet ranges (1.19 and 5.88 allowed versus 1.25 and 6.66). Detroit is the best in the league at deterring some of the longer range volleys, though, meaning we probably can't expect a lot of offense from Phaneuf in this series. It's close, but it looks like this analysis gives Detroit the edge as well. Im not sure if this set controlled for data generated against non-play-off teams, meaning it may be slightly skewed in Detroit's favor. Look back to see how the two teams compare in terms of shooting percentage, which I think is the next step in this analysis...
Do the Thrashers Have Talons?
The Falconer is another mathematically inclined blogger who has employed his own brand of weighted stats and formulae to predict success. In his analysis of the Calgary/Detroit series he notes that:
Detroit's regular season numbers are greatly inflated because they destroyed non-playoff teams outscoring them (+58) but against West playoff teams they were actually outscored themselves (-1) by a goal.
That's what I want to hear! In addition, the Falconer's prediction model suggests that shooting percentage is the single best predictor of post-season success, which actually favors Calgary. Also notice the Flames vastly superior GFA versus Western play-off teams (3.11) as compared to Detroit's (2.66) as well as the differing GD versus WC play-off squads (+12, -1). Things that make you go hmmmmmm...
Covered In Oil:
Bitterness and vitriol. Even in his miserable state, Pleasure Motors manages to summon just enough passion to wish the Flames ill. No math or stats here. Just some hilarious quotes.
Of course, the Flames blogger community already has several good previews as well...take a gander at the Flames blogs at right to see the various ways we all think that Calgary's gonna beat the Red Wings.
Which One?
So as a Flames fan heading into the playoff season I am looking around for Flames gear that will aid in me cheering them on through their good and bad times. First on the list is a Jersey. Not any jersey though, a red personalized Flames jersey. My dilemma? I just cannot figure out who's name (if not mine) to get! I could get the jersey that I use as my user pic (on blogger), but my last name is all but two letters and I just feel ripped off paying that amount of money for 2 letters! However when it comes to picking my favorite player on the Flames I find myself liking more than 1!
My options are:
1/ Iginla Jersery:
Pros
- Iggy Rocks!
- Should be on the team for awhile *crosses fingers*
- You get your moneys worth because it has an extra C!
- Everyone has one
2/ Langkow Jersery:
Pros
- He helped me place second in my pool!
- He is having a career year.
- He is a smaller hockey player who I can relate too
- Will he get re-signed?
3/ Lombardi Jersey:
Pros
- He is having a career year
- Awesome for the first half of the year
- Will he be re-signed?
- Almost non-existent in the last half
4/ Huselius Jersey:
Pros
- He is having a career year
- Not many have his jersey
- He's European...I kid, I kid
- MG likes this one :P
5/ Kiprusoff Jersey:
Pros
- He's an awesome goalie
- I would never get a goalies Jersey
6/ Conroy Jersey:
Pros
- Former Flame of past Flames playoff run history
- He's a great guy!
- Just not the same with him being #24
7/ Tanguay Jersey:
Pros
- He is having a career year
- He is a great play maker
- Has the same first name
- Will be here for quite awhile
Cons
- #40 is such an ugly number...haha
So with all that written down...which one would you pick based on your own personal preferences?
Ahh, What the Hell
Well, just because everyone else is doing it, I think I'll add my play-off predictions to the fray:
Eastern Conference:
Buffalo (1) versus NY Islanders (8) -
Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league. Any of their 4 lines can score, their defense is solid and mobile and they have good goaltending. In contrast, the Islanders are short on defensive depth, have an unknown goaltender whose name I can't pronounce and their captain is Alexei Yashin.
Buffalo in 5.
New Jersey (2) versus Tampa Bay (7) -
Not sure what to expect from this series. The Lightning have the best forwards, but they're horrible defensively. The Devils have the best goalie, but can't seem to score. I think St. Louis and Vinny are gamers, but it's not enough; Brodeur will out-duel the Holmqvist/Denis duo.
Devils in 6.
Atlanta (3) versus NY Rangers (6) -
Atlanta is probably the weakest division leader in the NHL. Their depth at all positions is highly suspect once you get past the one or two marquee players and their goaltending is just alright. Conversely, the Rangers were pretty damn good in the second half of the season, largely because Lundqvist regained his 05/06 form. With the addition of Cullen, Shanahan and Avery, NY isn't completely dependent on Jagr this year.
Rangers in 5.
Ottawa (4) versus Pittsburgh (5)
As Matt notes, the Sens have probably been the best team in the East for the last few months. Emery put up some impressive numbers after usurping Gerber and nearly everyone on their roster is capable of scoring a goal or 3. On the other hand you have too many rookies and not enough depth: Crosby, Malkin and company are great youngsters, to be sure, but they just ain't there yet. Fleury isn't better than Emery and I don't think the graybearded Roberts will make enough of a difference here.
Ottawa in 7.
Western Conference:
Detroit (1) versus Calgary (8) -
See post below.
Anaheim (2) versus Minnesota (7) -
The question here is: can Gaborik/Rolston/Demitra overcome the Pronger/Niedermayer advantage consistently enough to win a series? The answer is: I doubt it. Anaheim has good goaltending, superstar defensemen and the best PP scorer in the league in Selanne. The Wild will steal a couple, but the Ducks just have more difference makers in the end.
Anaheim in 6.
Vancouver (3) versus Dallas (6) -
Would you bet on a team whose top scorer was Mike Ribeiro and whose goalie was Marty Turco? Me neither. Dallas has done a remarkable job of sustaining a high level of play despite a lack of offensive depth and injuries during the year, but...they just can't score enough and Turco just isn't a play-off performer. Luongo hasn't been there before, but I've seen nothing that would make me doubt his ability to get the job done in the post-season. The Sedins are the real deal, too.
Vancouver in 7 (I feel so dirty).
Nashville (4) versus San Jose (5) -
Both of these teams scare me. As such, I think this'll be one of the best series to watch in the first round. Both clubs have two good goaltenders and both have fairly deadly attacks. I like the Predators defense more than the Sharks and I think Forsberg is a superior play-off performer as compared to Thornton. Assuming Peter the great can play, I like the Preds to take this one.
Nashville in 7.
Feel free to vehemently disagree with me in the comments.
Eastern Conference:
Buffalo (1) versus NY Islanders (8) -
Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league. Any of their 4 lines can score, their defense is solid and mobile and they have good goaltending. In contrast, the Islanders are short on defensive depth, have an unknown goaltender whose name I can't pronounce and their captain is Alexei Yashin.
Buffalo in 5.
New Jersey (2) versus Tampa Bay (7) -
Not sure what to expect from this series. The Lightning have the best forwards, but they're horrible defensively. The Devils have the best goalie, but can't seem to score. I think St. Louis and Vinny are gamers, but it's not enough; Brodeur will out-duel the Holmqvist/Denis duo.
Devils in 6.
Atlanta (3) versus NY Rangers (6) -
Atlanta is probably the weakest division leader in the NHL. Their depth at all positions is highly suspect once you get past the one or two marquee players and their goaltending is just alright. Conversely, the Rangers were pretty damn good in the second half of the season, largely because Lundqvist regained his 05/06 form. With the addition of Cullen, Shanahan and Avery, NY isn't completely dependent on Jagr this year.
Rangers in 5.
Ottawa (4) versus Pittsburgh (5)
As Matt notes, the Sens have probably been the best team in the East for the last few months. Emery put up some impressive numbers after usurping Gerber and nearly everyone on their roster is capable of scoring a goal or 3. On the other hand you have too many rookies and not enough depth: Crosby, Malkin and company are great youngsters, to be sure, but they just ain't there yet. Fleury isn't better than Emery and I don't think the graybearded Roberts will make enough of a difference here.
Ottawa in 7.
Western Conference:
Detroit (1) versus Calgary (8) -
See post below.
Anaheim (2) versus Minnesota (7) -
The question here is: can Gaborik/Rolston/Demitra overcome the Pronger/Niedermayer advantage consistently enough to win a series? The answer is: I doubt it. Anaheim has good goaltending, superstar defensemen and the best PP scorer in the league in Selanne. The Wild will steal a couple, but the Ducks just have more difference makers in the end.
Anaheim in 6.
Vancouver (3) versus Dallas (6) -
Would you bet on a team whose top scorer was Mike Ribeiro and whose goalie was Marty Turco? Me neither. Dallas has done a remarkable job of sustaining a high level of play despite a lack of offensive depth and injuries during the year, but...they just can't score enough and Turco just isn't a play-off performer. Luongo hasn't been there before, but I've seen nothing that would make me doubt his ability to get the job done in the post-season. The Sedins are the real deal, too.
Vancouver in 7 (I feel so dirty).
Nashville (4) versus San Jose (5) -
Both of these teams scare me. As such, I think this'll be one of the best series to watch in the first round. Both clubs have two good goaltenders and both have fairly deadly attacks. I like the Predators defense more than the Sharks and I think Forsberg is a superior play-off performer as compared to Thornton. Assuming Peter the great can play, I like the Preds to take this one.
Nashville in 7.
Feel free to vehemently disagree with me in the comments.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Round One: Calgary Versus Detroit Preview
The Raw Team Data:
Calgary - 43-29-10 - 96 points, 3rd NWD, 8th WC.
Detroit - 50-19-13 - 113 points, 1st CEN, 1st WC.
Calgary - PP 18.2% (10th), PK 80.4% (22nd) - aggregate score 98.6
Detroit - PP 17.1% (21st), PK 84.6% (7th) - aggregate score 101.7
Calgary - GF 255 (7th), 153 ES, 14 SH. GA 221 (11th), 123 ES, 79 SH - GD 34
Detroit - GF 252 (10th), 153ES, 11SH. GA 191 (2nd), 104 ES, 63 SH - GD 61
Besides the glaring difference in record/points, these two teams look surprisingly evenly matched. Of course, thanks to the league's unbalanced schedules, comparing two teams across different divisions can be rather challenging - kinda like comparing grades across two vastly different grading curves. To stretch the analogy further, Detroit was an overcheiever in a class of special needs kids while the Flames were stuck in a room full of brainiacs (aside from the lone dork in the corner wearing a blue and orange dunce cap).
So, like last season, the Red Wings stats are skewed slightly by the "inflating confounder" that is the soft as butter central division. If it weren't for the Preds, and the total lack of quality teams in the SE division, the central could be irrefutably crowned the reigning King of the Sewer in the NHL. The Blackhawks, Blues and Blue Jackets managed just 83, 73 and and 71 points respectively, with goal differentials of -40, -48 and -57. Those are some terrible teams. As a result, Detroit's record against their divisional opponents this year was a ridiculous 22-4-6.
Conversely, the Flames were stuck in the ultra-competitive NW division, battling the likes of Vancouver (105 points, +21 GD), Minnesota (104 points, +44 GD) and Colorado (95 points, +21 GD). Even Edmonton was respectable before the post-Smythian meltdown.
So while Detroit feasted on the roadkill in their own division, they were a far more middling 9-6-5 (0.45 win percentage) against NWD opponents, while the Flames went 17-12-3 (0.53 win percentage) against their own division and 11-6-3 against Central opposition (0.55 win percentage). The latter record is despite the fact that the Nashville Predators are basically Flame retardant (7-1 against Calgary the last 2 seasons).
As such, Detroit's impressive win percentage and various other team metrics (like that big, fat, GD of +61) aren't quite the indicators of overwhelming superiority that they seem to be. Shooting fish in barrel tends to lead to high catch counts (but, perhaps, poor target practice...).
Of course, none of this means Detroit is necessarily a bad team either. They still got the job done, in dominating fashion, against the lame ducks. They allowed the fewest amount of shots against per game (24.6) and the fewest amount of ES goals against in the league (104). It's hard to say what these figures would look like for a Detroit squad sequestered in the NWD, but I think it's fair to say: still fairly good. I doubt the Flames numbers would be as impressive were they a Central squad, if only because of their Bubba-allergy.
Raw Player Data:
Calgary Flames leading scorers and basic+ stats:
Detroit Red Wings leading scorers and basic+ stats:
The Flames get the edge in terms of production rates at both ES and with the man-advantage. Sort of. Kristian Huselius is the most efficient PP producer for both squads at 6.34 PPP/60, standing nearly a full point better than Detroit's Henrik Zetterberg. Iginla and Tanguay had the best rates of production at ES between the two teams, although the difference between them and Pavol Datsyuk's rate (3.28 vs. 2.98) is close to negligible. Detroit does to seem to have the greater number of PP producers (5>4.00 vs. 4>4.00) excluding the likes of Bertuzzi and Warrener thanks to small sample size. Overall, though, there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between the two squads. But, as a Flames fan, it's nice to see Calgary's heavy-weights come out on top in both measures.Detroit Analysis:
Detroit has dominated the regular season for 3 straight years and yet managed to capitulate to a lower seed in the post-season in each of those years. Anaheim, Calgary, Edmonton. 8th seed, 6th seed, 8th seed. Three 100+ seasons, 1 play-off series victory to show.
The problems for the Red Wings have been twofold: lackluster production from their big boys (Datsyuk in particular) and invariably meeting a goaltender that is hotter than the guy they have in net. While the latter issue has been (potentially) addressed with the addition Hasek, the former remains a pressing concern. Datsyuk, for example, has a post-season stats line that would make Joe Thornton or Marty Turco blush: in 363 regular season games, Datsyuk has managed 328 points (0.9 PPG) and a cumulative plus/minus rating of +84. In 42 post-season games, however, he's scored just 3 goals and 15 points (0.36 PPG) and a rating of -1. Ouch.
In addition, Henrik Zetterberg (who was actually one of the better Wings against the Oilers in 06) also has unimpressive play-off career numbers. His 0.86 PPG regular season pace plunges down to 0.50 in the post season, and the +76 he's accrued over 280 RS games falls to a -6 when the real stuff begins.
Other Issues:
Injury - Detroit currently has 2 top 6 forwards suffering from chronic ailments. Henrik Zetterberg and Todd Bertuzzi both missed significant time during the regular season but are rumored to be suiting up for the series opener. No one is sure just how "ready" they are, however. In addition, the Red Wings will most likely be without top 4 blueliner Niklas Kronvall for the majority of the post-season thanks to a nagging hip problem.
And while he isn't injured - yet - everyone knows Dominic Hasek has the potential to succumb to health issues at any time. Should his groin crumble, the Wings will have to lean on a mediocre Chris Osgood, which would probably spell doom for their play-off aspirations.
Strengths:
Detroit has developed into one of the best defensive clubs in the league. They play a smart, well-organized puck possession game that results in many shots for and few against. They have an old, but excellent goalie (who is still very effective when healthy) and the unflappable Niklas Lidstrom on the back-end. Lidstrom, in line for yet another Norris, will most likely see a lot of the Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay tandem during this series, which should worry most Flames fans: despite consistently seeing other club's best players throughout the year, Lidstrom led all NHL defensemen with a +40 (!) rating in the regular season. He's a first ballot hall-of-famer and he's still incredibly good.
Detroit also has decent, if not amazing, forward depth. After Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Red Wings boast 30 goal scorer Thomas Holmstrom, a slower but still dangerous Robert Lang, a suddenly emergent Daniel Cleary as well as a reinvigorated Kyle Calder. I believe the duo of Kirk Malby and Kris Draper are still considered top-notch defensive forwards, meaning it won't just be Lidstrom capably shadowing Iginla's every move. Course, there's also the wild-card addition of Todd Bertuzzi to consider, assuming of course he's healthy AND actually shows up to play (both are in question at this point).
Flames Analysis:
A year after coming with a a goal-line of winning the Stanley Cup, the Flames fell with little more than a whimper to the Anaheim Ducks last year in the first round. To some, their decent if unimpressive showing during the regular season in 06/07 seemed to be an extension of that disappointment. Despite boasting arguably the best roster the Franchise has seen for years and being considered odds-on favorites to win the NW division, the Flames stumbled out of the gate in October and were mediocre during the 2nd half of the season. As a result, they barely scraped into the 8th seed in the west. Career-type seasons by Huselius, Langkow, Iginla, Tanguay and Lombardi were overshadowed by a team-wide propensity for defensive and neutral zone gaffes that reared it's ugly head all too frequently on the road and after February 1st.
Calgary's primary issues include: a bottom 10 PK, baffling inconsistency and terrible road performances. The penalty kill has been a sore spot all year, made less sensible by the fact the Flames have an impressive blueline, decent defensive forwards in Conroy, Yelle, Nilson and Friesen and a top 5 goalie. One would expect that combination to yield at least a middling PK rate...but it wasn't so.
Inconsistency and poor road play went hand-in-hand for Calgary this year. The Flames set a Franchise record with a 10 game winning streak in the Dome, only to stumble to a laughable 13-20-8 as the visitor by season's end. Whether it was due to some impenetrable mental block or simply being out-coached, the Flames went from heros to zeros almost invariably when wearing road white. In order to have any hope of play-off success at all, the Flames will have to banish that regrettable tendency pretty much immediately.
Other Issues:
Injury: Calgary's top defenseman Robyn Regehr was hurt in the 3rd last game of the season and is currently considered "day-to-day" with a leg injury. It is unknown whether he will play on Thursday, though the rumble is he won't miss much more than a game or two at worst. Regehr and his partner Brad Stuart will be given the task of shutting down Datsyuk/Zetterberg, so his absence will be a glaring one should he remain out of the line-up for any length of time.
Of course, the Flames play-off hopes would be completely extinguished should Kipper go down with an injury. With all apologies to Noodles, it is an unavoidable truth that the Flames fortunes are inexorably tied to Kiprusoff's limber frame.
Strengths:
For the first time in recent memory, the Flames have depth at both the offensive and defensive positions. The forwards are led by Jarome Iginla, whose 1.34 PPG pace was behind only Sidney Crosby (1.52) and Joe Thornton (1.39). After Iginla, Alex Tanguay scored a career high 81 points for the Flames, and was tied for 7th in the league in terms of ESP. The emergence of Kristian Huselius (34 goals, 77 points) and Damond Langkow (33 goals, 77 points) as legitimate offensive threats gives the Flames a relatively decent arsenal up front.
The Flames also have a mirror to the Maltby/Draper combination in the suddenly capable Yelle/Nilson/Friesen trio. It took most of the season, but evidence from the final 4 weeks of the year suggests that Calgary finally has a decent shut-down line.
On the back-end, the Flames have a solid top 4 collection including the aforementioned Stuart/Regehr pairing as well as Phanuef/Hamrlik. Phaneuf had a tough last couple of weeks, and a terrible play-offs last year, so it remains to be seen if he can step up in the post-season this year. Warrener, Hale, Zyuzin and Giordano round the bottom 5-8. I'd suggest Warrener and Hale will be the default bottom pairing, with the others drawing in as injuries dictate.
Keys to victory for Calgary:
Detroit and Calgary are remarkably well-matched, despite their disparate positions in the standings. Both can score and defend. Neither has really good special teams. The Red Wings seem to have more injury concerns, while the Flames have consistency issues. Calgary has the bigger guns (with better play-off track records) in Iginla and Tanguay, but the Red Wings have the league's best neutralizer in Lidstrom. For Calgary to win this series they'll have to:
1.) Shut-down Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Which, as demonstrated, seems doable. Today's Calgary Herald has some suggestions for the Flames in that regard.
2.) Get secondary scoring. Lidstrom et al. are going to draped all over Iginla for the majority of the series, especially on the road. Guys like Huselius, Langkow and Lombardi will have to contribute in order for the Flames to generate enough shots and score enough goals to win.
3.) Stay disciplined. The penchant for turning over the puck at their own blueline was one of the Flames most glaring vices whenever they were struggling. Matching Detroit's smart defensive play will be a must.
4.) Competent Road Performances. As mentioned, this will be a brief post-season if the Flames can't elevate their play in the JLA.
In conclusion, I think the Flames have a good chance to pull off an upset, assuming, of course, Nervous Jimmy can mold them into a cohesive unit. Detroit is a good team - but not 1st seed good. Their marshmallow division has once again set them up for a precipitous fall, methinks. In addition, their injury concerns may be the tipping point in a closely battled series.
Homer Prediction: Flames in 7.
Monday, April 09, 2007
Where Do We Go From Here?
Well ladies and gentlemen, we did it. Or rather, The Predators did it. For their part, the Flames were willing to let Nashville do the dirty work and then coast into the post-season. Four straight losses to end the year, including a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the barely NHL-caliber Edmonton Oilers. Sure, it was a nothing game for Calgary once they learned the Avs had been eliminated - but it still grinds me that the Oiler's only regulation victory in 5 weeks had to come against the Flames. Ugh. To say nothing of Joe Sakic, who scored his 20th point in just his 8TH GAME against an undermanned Flames squad yesterday. God help us if Burnaby Joe ever gets traded to Nashville.
Anyways, all I can say is, "I'm glad that's over". The regular season had become one, long, endless trip to the dentist for this Flames fan, and the only thing to look forward to these last few weeks was the cessation of pain. Five game losing streak, 6 game winning streak. Lose to Chicago, beat Detroit. An ignoble back-in entrance to the post-season. Tony Amonte on the ice during the last-minute of 1 goal games.
Color me unimpressed. The Flames had their fate in their hands and they very nearly dropped it in the sewer. They stank in the last 4 games of the year - like they stank in the first 4 in October and many, many others away from the Dome all season.
Of course, all that can be thrown out the window starting today. The crappy PK, the terrible road record, the losing streak, the continued undercheivement. All that can be rendered immaterial by a solid post-season run a la 05/06 Oilers. Nervous Jimmy can be forgiven this forgettable campaign and reinvigorate his chances to remain the Flames bench boss by propelling this team beyond the first-round disappointment they were a year ago.
Am I confident it can be done? Hard to say. The Flames have been both brilliant and terrible this year. One of the best teams in the league at home and yet one of the worst on the road. More offense than anyone would have guessed, poorer defense than seems possible. From November through January, Calgary looked like an elite squad. In October, February and March, they were frequently mediocre and occasionally dreadful.
Will the team that won 10 straight home games show up for the post-season? or will it be the hapless road squad that succumbed to good and bad opposition with equal aplomb? Will the unstoppable December-version of Jarome Iginla take to the ice against Detroit? Or will it be Jarmoe, that listless doppleganger who stumbled through a 67 point season in 05/06?
I can't honestly say for certain what to expect from the Flames come Thursday. I haven't much confidence in the guy behind the bench, which, if such sentiments are shared by the players, doesn't speak well for our prospects of victory. I DO, however, hold a better view of the players themselves: 8th place seeding aside, I still think this is one of the best rosters Calgary has seen in more than a decade. The Flames have four 70+ point getters, eleven(!) 10+ goal scorers, a veritable treasure trove of defensive depth and a top 5 goalie. Hell, there are some claiming that the #1 seeded Detroit Red Wings are the underdogs going into round one.
I'm not convinced of that myself. Detroit again feasted on the Central Division's weaker sisters all year, sure, but they also handed the Flames two of their most embarrassing defeats this season. The first was a 3-2L in November - a score that flattered the Flames given they were outshot 34-15. The second was the horrid 7-4 debacle that occurred on the heels of the Andrew Ference/Brad Stuart swap. Anyone who claims that that was Calgary's worst game of the season has a solid argument: they were outshot an incredible 50-20. The score looks semi-respectable thanks only to 3rd stringer Joey MacDonald's 0.800 SV% from that night - insert Hasek in his stead and 7-1 is a much more likely scenario.
But, to echo an earlier sentiment, that's all in the past. It may not sound like it, but I'm genuinely eager for the onset of the post-season. I think the Flames match-up relatively well with the Red Wings (that's another post altogether) and few things match the fun and breathy, fervent madness of a good play-off series.
Be sure to check out a view from the other side over at Abel to Yzerman now and throughout the first round. A better, more informative (and humorous) resource for Red Wings info doesn't exist.
Anyways, all I can say is, "I'm glad that's over". The regular season had become one, long, endless trip to the dentist for this Flames fan, and the only thing to look forward to these last few weeks was the cessation of pain. Five game losing streak, 6 game winning streak. Lose to Chicago, beat Detroit. An ignoble back-in entrance to the post-season. Tony Amonte on the ice during the last-minute of 1 goal games.
Color me unimpressed. The Flames had their fate in their hands and they very nearly dropped it in the sewer. They stank in the last 4 games of the year - like they stank in the first 4 in October and many, many others away from the Dome all season.
Of course, all that can be thrown out the window starting today. The crappy PK, the terrible road record, the losing streak, the continued undercheivement. All that can be rendered immaterial by a solid post-season run a la 05/06 Oilers. Nervous Jimmy can be forgiven this forgettable campaign and reinvigorate his chances to remain the Flames bench boss by propelling this team beyond the first-round disappointment they were a year ago.
Am I confident it can be done? Hard to say. The Flames have been both brilliant and terrible this year. One of the best teams in the league at home and yet one of the worst on the road. More offense than anyone would have guessed, poorer defense than seems possible. From November through January, Calgary looked like an elite squad. In October, February and March, they were frequently mediocre and occasionally dreadful.
Will the team that won 10 straight home games show up for the post-season? or will it be the hapless road squad that succumbed to good and bad opposition with equal aplomb? Will the unstoppable December-version of Jarome Iginla take to the ice against Detroit? Or will it be Jarmoe, that listless doppleganger who stumbled through a 67 point season in 05/06?
I can't honestly say for certain what to expect from the Flames come Thursday. I haven't much confidence in the guy behind the bench, which, if such sentiments are shared by the players, doesn't speak well for our prospects of victory. I DO, however, hold a better view of the players themselves: 8th place seeding aside, I still think this is one of the best rosters Calgary has seen in more than a decade. The Flames have four 70+ point getters, eleven(!) 10+ goal scorers, a veritable treasure trove of defensive depth and a top 5 goalie. Hell, there are some claiming that the #1 seeded Detroit Red Wings are the underdogs going into round one.
I'm not convinced of that myself. Detroit again feasted on the Central Division's weaker sisters all year, sure, but they also handed the Flames two of their most embarrassing defeats this season. The first was a 3-2L in November - a score that flattered the Flames given they were outshot 34-15. The second was the horrid 7-4 debacle that occurred on the heels of the Andrew Ference/Brad Stuart swap. Anyone who claims that that was Calgary's worst game of the season has a solid argument: they were outshot an incredible 50-20. The score looks semi-respectable thanks only to 3rd stringer Joey MacDonald's 0.800 SV% from that night - insert Hasek in his stead and 7-1 is a much more likely scenario.
But, to echo an earlier sentiment, that's all in the past. It may not sound like it, but I'm genuinely eager for the onset of the post-season. I think the Flames match-up relatively well with the Red Wings (that's another post altogether) and few things match the fun and breathy, fervent madness of a good play-off series.
Be sure to check out a view from the other side over at Abel to Yzerman now and throughout the first round. A better, more informative (and humorous) resource for Red Wings info doesn't exist.
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