I've been absent for a few days, partially because, well, the Flames don't play hockey anymore and partially because I'm pacing myself now that the off-season is upon us. Naturally, I have dozens of know-it-all solutions and loud-mouth denunciations rattling around in my brain but with 5 months of inactivity staring me in the face, I thought it wise to space them across the coming weeks.
I've said my piece on the Playfair thing. Whether or not he remains the Flames coach will be answered in the next few months.
The next burning issue facing Sutter is, of course, the state of the roster. The Flames have 10 players scheduled to become UFA's starting July 1st. According to NHLnumbers.com, that list includes:
Tony Amonte
Jeff Friesen
Marcus Nilson
Darren McCarty
Byron Ritchie
Wayne Primeau
Roman Hamrlik
Brad Stuart
Brad Ference
Jamie McLennan
None of the forward free agents of are of much concern. Amonte, Friesen and Nilson are probably the best players of those listed and I consider their contributions to be replacable by younger, cheaper players. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Amonte retires. Ditto for Darren McCarty, who is so scarred and battle-worn it seems unlikely he will ever lace up a pair of skates again. Byron Ritchie is a capable 13th forward type, but he may just bolt to another franchise with the hope of cracking the roster full-time. Wayne Primeau impressed for the first couple weeks of his Calgary audition, but slowed to the degree that his contributions seemed rather negligible. I'm guessing he'll be gone too.
The gaps up front will be filled by the farm and likely one or two FA signings. Those Omaha Knights who are most probable to become Calgary Flames next year is another post altogether, but here's a short list anyhow:
Carsen Germyn
Andrei Taratukhin
David Van Der Gulik
Brandon Prust
Tomi Maki
In Germyn and Taratukhin, the Flames have a couple of mature, two-way forwards that can contribute at both ends of the ice. Both forwards tied for the team lead with 60 points this season, with Germyn leading the club with 28 goals. He's had back to back 20+ goal campaigns in the minors.
Prust, Van Der Gulik and Maki are checkers to varying degrees. Prust is a shit-disturber in the Steve Begin/Sean Avery vein. His presence and energy would be a welcome addition to the bottom trio I think. Van Der Gulik is a defensive specialist a la Stephane Yelle. He finished his first pro season in the AHL with 16 goals and a staggering +27 rating, which was a full +11 above the 2nd best player on the squad. Van Der Gulik isn't big or mean - just smart. He could become a competent PK specialist type at the NHL level if his progress continues forward. Finally, Tomi Maki doesn't appear to be very good at anything, but WI likes him so I threw him in there for kicks.
Unfortunately for the Flames, the farm isn't going to be of much help when it comes to their biggest organizational weaknesses going into the new year: a top 6 RW and at least one top 4 defender.
With all apologies to David Moss, who acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season, the Flames have a relatively weak stable of RWs after Jarome Iginla. A capable 2nd or 3rd line winger should be on Sutter's shopping list in July.
Of greater importance will be a top 4 blueliner, dependent, of course, on what happens with pending free agents Roman Hamrlik and Brad Stuart. Hamrlik has already been quoted around town saying he earnestly wants to re-sign with the club. I would suggest a 2 year deal at or below his current salary would get the deal done.
Stuart, however, has been a lot less forthcoming. His interviews have yielded the typical "I like the team, but we'll see..." kind of responses most UFAs give before bolting. If Stuart should decide to sign somewhere in California over the summer, which is the prevailing rumor, the Flames will be stuck with a big gaping hole beside Robyn Regehr again. With Phaneuf still looking very much like a #4 defenceman by the end of the year, Calgary will most likely have to either do whatever it takes to keep Stuart here or start bidding on the open market for one of the other desirable UFAs. Off the top of my head, buys like Kimmo Timonen and Andrei Markov might fit the bill, although further investigation into their basic and advanced stats would be in order. Preferably, I would like to see Stuart return, mainly because I liked the way he and Regehr got on during his limited time here, but that may be wishful thinking.
In the back-up position, I would expect Jamie McLennan to ride off into the sunset and into a boradcast booth somewhere and leave the door open for young AHL stand-out Curtis McElhinney. The Flames have a number of maturing goaltender prospects in the junior leagues (Irving, Lalande, Keetley) who may well move up to pro next season, meaning the Flames will need to clear space on the farm in order to accommodate them.
McElhinney was the Knight's clear-cut #1 'tender this year ahead of Brent Krahn, meaning he has the inside track for the job. Krahn managed some mediocre numbers in the AHL this year and has probably worn out his welcome as prospect in the Flames system. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt as part of a bundle for a real player or in some minor, stand-alone deal in the off-season.
Anyways, those are my broad, initial thoughts on the Flames roster issues going forward. As the weeks progress, expect some salary-cap accounting as well as barely literate statistical comparisons to flesh out the analysis...
