The Raw Team Data:
Calgary - 43-29-10 - 96 points, 3rd NWD, 8th WC.
Detroit - 50-19-13 - 113 points, 1st CEN, 1st WC.
Calgary - PP 18.2% (10th), PK 80.4% (22nd) - aggregate score 98.6
Detroit - PP 17.1% (21st), PK 84.6% (7th) - aggregate score 101.7
Calgary - GF 255 (7th), 153 ES, 14 SH. GA 221 (11th), 123 ES, 79 SH - GD 34
Detroit - GF 252 (10th), 153ES, 11SH. GA 191 (2nd), 104 ES, 63 SH - GD 61
Besides the glaring difference in record/points, these two teams look surprisingly evenly matched. Of course, thanks to the league's unbalanced schedules, comparing two teams across different divisions can be rather challenging - kinda like comparing grades across two vastly different grading curves. To stretch the analogy further, Detroit was an overcheiever in a class of special needs kids while the Flames were stuck in a room full of brainiacs (aside from the lone dork in the corner wearing a blue and orange dunce cap).
So, like last season, the Red Wings stats are skewed slightly by the "inflating confounder" that is the soft as butter central division. If it weren't for the Preds, and the total lack of quality teams in the SE division, the central could be irrefutably crowned the reigning King of the Sewer in the NHL. The Blackhawks, Blues and Blue Jackets managed just 83, 73 and and 71 points respectively, with goal differentials of -40, -48 and -57. Those are some terrible teams. As a result, Detroit's record against their divisional opponents this year was a ridiculous 22-4-6.
Conversely, the Flames were stuck in the ultra-competitive NW division, battling the likes of Vancouver (105 points, +21 GD), Minnesota (104 points, +44 GD) and Colorado (95 points, +21 GD). Even Edmonton was respectable before the post-Smythian meltdown.
So while Detroit feasted on the roadkill in their own division, they were a far more middling 9-6-5 (0.45 win percentage) against NWD opponents, while the Flames went 17-12-3 (0.53 win percentage) against their own division and 11-6-3 against Central opposition (0.55 win percentage). The latter record is despite the fact that the Nashville Predators are basically Flame retardant (7-1 against Calgary the last 2 seasons).
As such, Detroit's impressive win percentage and various other team metrics (like that big, fat, GD of +61) aren't quite the indicators of overwhelming superiority that they seem to be. Shooting fish in barrel tends to lead to high catch counts (but, perhaps, poor target practice...).
Of course, none of this means Detroit is necessarily a bad team either. They still got the job done, in dominating fashion, against the lame ducks. They allowed the fewest amount of shots against per game (24.6) and the fewest amount of ES goals against in the league (104). It's hard to say what these figures would look like for a Detroit squad sequestered in the NWD, but I think it's fair to say: still fairly good. I doubt the Flames numbers would be as impressive were they a Central squad, if only because of their Bubba-allergy.
Raw Player Data:
Calgary Flames leading scorers and basic+ stats:
Detroit Red Wings leading scorers and basic+ stats:
The Flames get the edge in terms of production rates at both ES and with the man-advantage. Sort of. Kristian Huselius is the most efficient PP producer for both squads at 6.34 PPP/60, standing nearly a full point better than Detroit's Henrik Zetterberg. Iginla and Tanguay had the best rates of production at ES between the two teams, although the difference between them and Pavol Datsyuk's rate (3.28 vs. 2.98) is close to negligible. Detroit does to seem to have the greater number of PP producers (5>4.00 vs. 4>4.00) excluding the likes of Bertuzzi and Warrener thanks to small sample size. Overall, though, there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between the two squads. But, as a Flames fan, it's nice to see Calgary's heavy-weights come out on top in both measures.Detroit Analysis:
Detroit has dominated the regular season for 3 straight years and yet managed to capitulate to a lower seed in the post-season in each of those years. Anaheim, Calgary, Edmonton. 8th seed, 6th seed, 8th seed. Three 100+ seasons, 1 play-off series victory to show.
The problems for the Red Wings have been twofold: lackluster production from their big boys (Datsyuk in particular) and invariably meeting a goaltender that is hotter than the guy they have in net. While the latter issue has been (potentially) addressed with the addition Hasek, the former remains a pressing concern. Datsyuk, for example, has a post-season stats line that would make Joe Thornton or Marty Turco blush: in 363 regular season games, Datsyuk has managed 328 points (0.9 PPG) and a cumulative plus/minus rating of +84. In 42 post-season games, however, he's scored just 3 goals and 15 points (0.36 PPG) and a rating of -1. Ouch.
In addition, Henrik Zetterberg (who was actually one of the better Wings against the Oilers in 06) also has unimpressive play-off career numbers. His 0.86 PPG regular season pace plunges down to 0.50 in the post season, and the +76 he's accrued over 280 RS games falls to a -6 when the real stuff begins.
Other Issues:
Injury - Detroit currently has 2 top 6 forwards suffering from chronic ailments. Henrik Zetterberg and Todd Bertuzzi both missed significant time during the regular season but are rumored to be suiting up for the series opener. No one is sure just how "ready" they are, however. In addition, the Red Wings will most likely be without top 4 blueliner Niklas Kronvall for the majority of the post-season thanks to a nagging hip problem.
And while he isn't injured - yet - everyone knows Dominic Hasek has the potential to succumb to health issues at any time. Should his groin crumble, the Wings will have to lean on a mediocre Chris Osgood, which would probably spell doom for their play-off aspirations.
Strengths:
Detroit has developed into one of the best defensive clubs in the league. They play a smart, well-organized puck possession game that results in many shots for and few against. They have an old, but excellent goalie (who is still very effective when healthy) and the unflappable Niklas Lidstrom on the back-end. Lidstrom, in line for yet another Norris, will most likely see a lot of the Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay tandem during this series, which should worry most Flames fans: despite consistently seeing other club's best players throughout the year, Lidstrom led all NHL defensemen with a +40 (!) rating in the regular season. He's a first ballot hall-of-famer and he's still incredibly good.
Detroit also has decent, if not amazing, forward depth. After Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Red Wings boast 30 goal scorer Thomas Holmstrom, a slower but still dangerous Robert Lang, a suddenly emergent Daniel Cleary as well as a reinvigorated Kyle Calder. I believe the duo of Kirk Malby and Kris Draper are still considered top-notch defensive forwards, meaning it won't just be Lidstrom capably shadowing Iginla's every move. Course, there's also the wild-card addition of Todd Bertuzzi to consider, assuming of course he's healthy AND actually shows up to play (both are in question at this point).
Flames Analysis:
A year after coming with a a goal-line of winning the Stanley Cup, the Flames fell with little more than a whimper to the Anaheim Ducks last year in the first round. To some, their decent if unimpressive showing during the regular season in 06/07 seemed to be an extension of that disappointment. Despite boasting arguably the best roster the Franchise has seen for years and being considered odds-on favorites to win the NW division, the Flames stumbled out of the gate in October and were mediocre during the 2nd half of the season. As a result, they barely scraped into the 8th seed in the west. Career-type seasons by Huselius, Langkow, Iginla, Tanguay and Lombardi were overshadowed by a team-wide propensity for defensive and neutral zone gaffes that reared it's ugly head all too frequently on the road and after February 1st.
Calgary's primary issues include: a bottom 10 PK, baffling inconsistency and terrible road performances. The penalty kill has been a sore spot all year, made less sensible by the fact the Flames have an impressive blueline, decent defensive forwards in Conroy, Yelle, Nilson and Friesen and a top 5 goalie. One would expect that combination to yield at least a middling PK rate...but it wasn't so.
Inconsistency and poor road play went hand-in-hand for Calgary this year. The Flames set a Franchise record with a 10 game winning streak in the Dome, only to stumble to a laughable 13-20-8 as the visitor by season's end. Whether it was due to some impenetrable mental block or simply being out-coached, the Flames went from heros to zeros almost invariably when wearing road white. In order to have any hope of play-off success at all, the Flames will have to banish that regrettable tendency pretty much immediately.
Other Issues:
Injury: Calgary's top defenseman Robyn Regehr was hurt in the 3rd last game of the season and is currently considered "day-to-day" with a leg injury. It is unknown whether he will play on Thursday, though the rumble is he won't miss much more than a game or two at worst. Regehr and his partner Brad Stuart will be given the task of shutting down Datsyuk/Zetterberg, so his absence will be a glaring one should he remain out of the line-up for any length of time.
Of course, the Flames play-off hopes would be completely extinguished should Kipper go down with an injury. With all apologies to Noodles, it is an unavoidable truth that the Flames fortunes are inexorably tied to Kiprusoff's limber frame.
Strengths:
For the first time in recent memory, the Flames have depth at both the offensive and defensive positions. The forwards are led by Jarome Iginla, whose 1.34 PPG pace was behind only Sidney Crosby (1.52) and Joe Thornton (1.39). After Iginla, Alex Tanguay scored a career high 81 points for the Flames, and was tied for 7th in the league in terms of ESP. The emergence of Kristian Huselius (34 goals, 77 points) and Damond Langkow (33 goals, 77 points) as legitimate offensive threats gives the Flames a relatively decent arsenal up front.
The Flames also have a mirror to the Maltby/Draper combination in the suddenly capable Yelle/Nilson/Friesen trio. It took most of the season, but evidence from the final 4 weeks of the year suggests that Calgary finally has a decent shut-down line.
On the back-end, the Flames have a solid top 4 collection including the aforementioned Stuart/Regehr pairing as well as Phanuef/Hamrlik. Phaneuf had a tough last couple of weeks, and a terrible play-offs last year, so it remains to be seen if he can step up in the post-season this year. Warrener, Hale, Zyuzin and Giordano round the bottom 5-8. I'd suggest Warrener and Hale will be the default bottom pairing, with the others drawing in as injuries dictate.
Keys to victory for Calgary:
Detroit and Calgary are remarkably well-matched, despite their disparate positions in the standings. Both can score and defend. Neither has really good special teams. The Red Wings seem to have more injury concerns, while the Flames have consistency issues. Calgary has the bigger guns (with better play-off track records) in Iginla and Tanguay, but the Red Wings have the league's best neutralizer in Lidstrom. For Calgary to win this series they'll have to:
1.) Shut-down Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Which, as demonstrated, seems doable. Today's Calgary Herald has some suggestions for the Flames in that regard.
2.) Get secondary scoring. Lidstrom et al. are going to draped all over Iginla for the majority of the series, especially on the road. Guys like Huselius, Langkow and Lombardi will have to contribute in order for the Flames to generate enough shots and score enough goals to win.
3.) Stay disciplined. The penchant for turning over the puck at their own blueline was one of the Flames most glaring vices whenever they were struggling. Matching Detroit's smart defensive play will be a must.
4.) Competent Road Performances. As mentioned, this will be a brief post-season if the Flames can't elevate their play in the JLA.
In conclusion, I think the Flames have a good chance to pull off an upset, assuming, of course, Nervous Jimmy can mold them into a cohesive unit. Detroit is a good team - but not 1st seed good. Their marshmallow division has once again set them up for a precipitous fall, methinks. In addition, their injury concerns may be the tipping point in a closely battled series.
Homer Prediction: Flames in 7.
