The second best thing about the play-offs is the deluge of interesting stuff that is evoked from the hockey blogosphere. Following is a list of some of the more notable and unorthodox takes on the Detroit/Calgary match-up I've thus far encountered on ye old interweb:
Hockey Numbers:
I only understand about a 1/5th of what Chris (Javageek) writes about most of the time, so that probably means he knows what he's talking about. He includes a lot of info in tabular form, and accounts for things I didn't even consider. In the end, his prediction model says Detroit is a 63% favorite to win the series.
On the Forecheck:
The Forechecker hasn't come out with his sure-fire "win-lose" predictions yet, but this post of his does hilight the issue of shot quality in the NHL and lists each play-off team's offensive and defensive contributions to the "shot quality" data set over the regular season. As is noted, the basic assumption is that closer in shots have a better chance of going, ie; are of a better quality.
As you can see from the table, Calgary and Detroit didn't differ significantly during the season in their ability to generate shots from close in (<10 feet) - The Flames apparently averaged 1.56 top quality shots per game while the Red Wings managed 1.54. Detroit did manage more shots from all the remaining areas, including the second best field (10-19 feet). However, Calgary is marginally superior to Detroit in preventing shots from scoring areas, particularly in the <10 feet and 10-19 feet ranges (1.19 and 5.88 allowed versus 1.25 and 6.66). Detroit is the best in the league at deterring some of the longer range volleys, though, meaning we probably can't expect a lot of offense from Phaneuf in this series. It's close, but it looks like this analysis gives Detroit the edge as well. Im not sure if this set controlled for data generated against non-play-off teams, meaning it may be slightly skewed in Detroit's favor. Look back to see how the two teams compare in terms of shooting percentage, which I think is the next step in this analysis...
Do the Thrashers Have Talons?
The Falconer is another mathematically inclined blogger who has employed his own brand of weighted stats and formulae to predict success. In his analysis of the Calgary/Detroit series he notes that:
Detroit's regular season numbers are greatly inflated because they destroyed non-playoff teams outscoring them (+58) but against West playoff teams they were actually outscored themselves (-1) by a goal.
That's what I want to hear! In addition, the Falconer's prediction model suggests that shooting percentage is the single best predictor of post-season success, which actually favors Calgary. Also notice the Flames vastly superior GFA versus Western play-off teams (3.11) as compared to Detroit's (2.66) as well as the differing GD versus WC play-off squads (+12, -1). Things that make you go hmmmmmm...
Covered In Oil:
Bitterness and vitriol. Even in his miserable state, Pleasure Motors manages to summon just enough passion to wish the Flames ill. No math or stats here. Just some hilarious quotes.
Of course, the Flames blogger community already has several good previews as well...take a gander at the Flames blogs at right to see the various ways we all think that Calgary's gonna beat the Red Wings.
