Interesting post here by the Universal Cynic, a writer I stumbled upon through my other sphere of blog-reading. An Ottawa citizen and freelance writer, Erin details her absurd (losing) battle to get accredited for the upcoming Stanley Cup finals.
Just another way head office is doing things wrong these days.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Farm Uprooted
The Flames released a statement to the press today confirming the rumor they will be moving their AHL affiliate to the Quad Cities area in Moline IL.
The short-lived Omaha Knights were last in attendance in the AHL during their inaugural season and 25th in the league last year (despite having a relatively successful team). There have been rumors of losses in the area of $2 million associated with the Omaha Franchise.
Here is the Knights (Flames?) new arena. It looks pretty swanky.
Here is a webpage for the soon-to-be team.
Thanks for the (brief encounter) memories Omaha!
The short-lived Omaha Knights were last in attendance in the AHL during their inaugural season and 25th in the league last year (despite having a relatively successful team). There have been rumors of losses in the area of $2 million associated with the Omaha Franchise.
Here is the Knights (Flames?) new arena. It looks pretty swanky.
Here is a webpage for the soon-to-be team.
Thanks for the (brief encounter) memories Omaha!
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Sutter Signs Prospects
The Flames announced the signing of 5 youngsters to entry level deals today, including former first-rounder Matt Pelech, WHL stand-out Matt Keetley, his teammate Gord Baldwin, Sutter the lesser (Brett) and undrafted blueliner Brad Cole.
The Keetley signing likely signals the end of the Krahn era in Calgary. The Flames are now ankle-deep in goalie prospects: McElhinney, Lalande, Keetley and Irving, to name a few. Krahn's constant struggles with injuries and consistency, not to mention his pending UFA status, means he'll cease to be Flames property this summer.
Pelech and Baldwin were top 2 blueliners for their respective junior clubs this past year. Likely the latter will be looking to crack the top 4 in the AHL come September. Sutter took a big leap, stats-wise, as an overaged winger in the dub last season. That said, his numbers still aren't mind-boggling. He'll be trying out for 3rd/4th line duty on the Knights next year. Brad Cole, like Mark Giordano, was passed over in the draft and was signed by Sutter as a free agent. He managed a pretty good season last year as the Captain of the Saskatoon Blades. Looks like a low-risk, moderate-reward kind of move.
The Keetley signing likely signals the end of the Krahn era in Calgary. The Flames are now ankle-deep in goalie prospects: McElhinney, Lalande, Keetley and Irving, to name a few. Krahn's constant struggles with injuries and consistency, not to mention his pending UFA status, means he'll cease to be Flames property this summer.
Pelech and Baldwin were top 2 blueliners for their respective junior clubs this past year. Likely the latter will be looking to crack the top 4 in the AHL come September. Sutter took a big leap, stats-wise, as an overaged winger in the dub last season. That said, his numbers still aren't mind-boggling. He'll be trying out for 3rd/4th line duty on the Knights next year. Brad Cole, like Mark Giordano, was passed over in the draft and was signed by Sutter as a free agent. He managed a pretty good season last year as the Captain of the Saskatoon Blades. Looks like a low-risk, moderate-reward kind of move.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Minor Flames News
First off, the Calgary Flames have a couple of prospects playing in this years memorial cup:
Overager JD Watt, who was recently signed by Sutter, had his best single season as a Vancouver Giant this year, and was a physical presence for the team as they marched through the WHL play-offs before falling to Medicine Hat in game 7 of the final series. Watt will likely be trying out for a spot on the Knights bottom six come next season.
Matt Keetley, another notable goaltending prospect (who remains unsigned by the Flames), led his club to the WHL championships and was named MVP of the tournament. He managed 105 wins in 152 regular season starts during his WHL career. It'll be interesting to see if Sutter allows Keetley to walk.
For the second straight year, Daniel Ryder is advancing to the memorial cup, except this time it's with the Plymouth Whalers. Ryder is coming off a career offensive season, where he scored 40 goals and 52 assists in just 57 games. He was suspended during for a 10 game stretch and was traded, which resulted in a brief disruption of his offensive out-put, meaning his totals could likely have been even more impressive had circumstances turned out differently. In the post-season, Ryder added 17 points in 20 games, a year after scoring 31 points in 19 play-off games with a very strong Peterborough Petes team. In 53 play-off contests Ryder has managed an impressive 60 points over the course of his career.
Ryder is also a signed prospect and will likely be skating on the Knights second line next season, just behind Dustin Boyd. It's no secret that I'm fairly excited about Ryder as a prospect and will be looking forward to observing the results from his first season as a pro.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of the Omaha Knights, the Flames baby club enjoyed a great deal more success than the parent team this past year. The Knights won the Western Division and the Western Conference, despite being an expansion club with the second youngest roster in the league. For a full player by player overview, visit this thread over at Calgarypuck by poster "Tilley" who is apparently a close observer of the farm team.
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Matthew Lombardi and Dion Phaneuf were significant contributors on the World Champion Canadian team these past few weeks. Phaneuf missed the first two games due to injury concerns, but was still able to become an ice-time leader, despite the fact that Team Canada boasted an 8 defenceman rotation that including guys like Brewer, Weber, Shultz, Commodore, Hamhuis and Barrett Jackman. He also finished the tourny with 8 assists, 2 off the record.
Matthew Lombardi finished with 6 goals and 6 assists and was named one the Team's 3 best players. He skated on the top line with Shane Doan and Rick Nash and was also frequently employed as a penalty killer. As Kyle notes, Lombo played a complete 2-way game in Russia that included both offensive production and defensive awareness.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignoring the Flames post-season futility, there's a lot of encouraging signs for Calgary fans heading into the summer. Prospects are excelling, the farm team is stronger than anticipated and young, future stars are maturing. Now if only Warrener would retire...
Overager JD Watt, who was recently signed by Sutter, had his best single season as a Vancouver Giant this year, and was a physical presence for the team as they marched through the WHL play-offs before falling to Medicine Hat in game 7 of the final series. Watt will likely be trying out for a spot on the Knights bottom six come next season.
Matt Keetley, another notable goaltending prospect (who remains unsigned by the Flames), led his club to the WHL championships and was named MVP of the tournament. He managed 105 wins in 152 regular season starts during his WHL career. It'll be interesting to see if Sutter allows Keetley to walk.
For the second straight year, Daniel Ryder is advancing to the memorial cup, except this time it's with the Plymouth Whalers. Ryder is coming off a career offensive season, where he scored 40 goals and 52 assists in just 57 games. He was suspended during for a 10 game stretch and was traded, which resulted in a brief disruption of his offensive out-put, meaning his totals could likely have been even more impressive had circumstances turned out differently. In the post-season, Ryder added 17 points in 20 games, a year after scoring 31 points in 19 play-off games with a very strong Peterborough Petes team. In 53 play-off contests Ryder has managed an impressive 60 points over the course of his career.
Ryder is also a signed prospect and will likely be skating on the Knights second line next season, just behind Dustin Boyd. It's no secret that I'm fairly excited about Ryder as a prospect and will be looking forward to observing the results from his first season as a pro.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of the Omaha Knights, the Flames baby club enjoyed a great deal more success than the parent team this past year. The Knights won the Western Division and the Western Conference, despite being an expansion club with the second youngest roster in the league. For a full player by player overview, visit this thread over at Calgarypuck by poster "Tilley" who is apparently a close observer of the farm team.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthew Lombardi and Dion Phaneuf were significant contributors on the World Champion Canadian team these past few weeks. Phaneuf missed the first two games due to injury concerns, but was still able to become an ice-time leader, despite the fact that Team Canada boasted an 8 defenceman rotation that including guys like Brewer, Weber, Shultz, Commodore, Hamhuis and Barrett Jackman. He also finished the tourny with 8 assists, 2 off the record.
Matthew Lombardi finished with 6 goals and 6 assists and was named one the Team's 3 best players. He skated on the top line with Shane Doan and Rick Nash and was also frequently employed as a penalty killer. As Kyle notes, Lombo played a complete 2-way game in Russia that included both offensive production and defensive awareness.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignoring the Flames post-season futility, there's a lot of encouraging signs for Calgary fans heading into the summer. Prospects are excelling, the farm team is stronger than anticipated and young, future stars are maturing. Now if only Warrener would retire...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Everybody Likes Chris.
Check out this interesting little article on Chris Drury by Off Wing Opinion blogger Eric McErlain over at NBC sports. After noting both Colorado and Calgary dealt Drury earlier in his career, Eric unearths this humorous little quote by Chris himself:
"I just don't know what to think. I play in Colorado, they tell me they like me, and I get traded. I play in Calgary, and at the end of the season the GM tells me he likes me, and I get traded. I just hope my fiancée doesn't tell me she likes me."
Heh.
In Sutter's defense, Drury wasn't the player he is now when he was traded by the Flames a few years back. In fact, it's possible he wouldn't have developed into the center he is today had he remained in Calgary. When he was a Flame, Chris had a lot offensive flair, but lacked the defensive acumen and polish that allows Lindy Ruff to play Drury against the opposition's top players.
It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens with Drury come July. I'm thinking that Buffalo will make a hard charge to re-sign him and will let Briere walk. Of course, should Drury decide to test the waters of free agency, Briere is a pretty damn good consolation prize.
Now, if both players decide the grass is greener elsewhere, maybe we can deal Langkow to Buffalo in exchange for ex-Flame Toni Lydman...
"I just don't know what to think. I play in Colorado, they tell me they like me, and I get traded. I play in Calgary, and at the end of the season the GM tells me he likes me, and I get traded. I just hope my fiancée doesn't tell me she likes me."
Heh.
In Sutter's defense, Drury wasn't the player he is now when he was traded by the Flames a few years back. In fact, it's possible he wouldn't have developed into the center he is today had he remained in Calgary. When he was a Flame, Chris had a lot offensive flair, but lacked the defensive acumen and polish that allows Lindy Ruff to play Drury against the opposition's top players.
It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens with Drury come July. I'm thinking that Buffalo will make a hard charge to re-sign him and will let Briere walk. Of course, should Drury decide to test the waters of free agency, Briere is a pretty damn good consolation prize.
Now, if both players decide the grass is greener elsewhere, maybe we can deal Langkow to Buffalo in exchange for ex-Flame Toni Lydman...
More Lombardi Goodness
Matthew Lombardi scored twice more this morning against the Swiss, giving him 5 goals in the last 2 games. He currently paces all Canadian goal scorers with 6 in the tournament.
He was also seen skating with an "A" on his sweater.
Definitely nice to see Lombardi excelling in this tournament. The big ice surface and somewhat docile level of physicality are certainly beneficial to his game, as is the somewhat average quality of competition. However, it's notable that Lombardi is doing well relative to his teammates, many of whom are considered top line players at the NHL level (Staal, Nash, Doan, Cammalleri). Thus far, Lombo looks like a peer in this company, rather than a subordinate. And that is certainly encouraging for Flames fans.
Dion Phaneuf is also making his presence felt at the World Championships. He added another 2 assists to his point total today, and was among the team leaders in ice-time.
After their 5-1 victory this morning, Team Canada will meet a strong Swedish club in the semi-finals on Saturday.
GO LOMBO...err...CANADA!
He was also seen skating with an "A" on his sweater.
Definitely nice to see Lombardi excelling in this tournament. The big ice surface and somewhat docile level of physicality are certainly beneficial to his game, as is the somewhat average quality of competition. However, it's notable that Lombardi is doing well relative to his teammates, many of whom are considered top line players at the NHL level (Staal, Nash, Doan, Cammalleri). Thus far, Lombo looks like a peer in this company, rather than a subordinate. And that is certainly encouraging for Flames fans.
Dion Phaneuf is also making his presence felt at the World Championships. He added another 2 assists to his point total today, and was among the team leaders in ice-time.
After their 5-1 victory this morning, Team Canada will meet a strong Swedish club in the semi-finals on Saturday.
GO LOMBO...err...CANADA!
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
This 'n That
So Detroit and San Jose conspired once again to deny my bid for a perfect set of predictions. I went 6/8 in the first round, missing on the Red Wing/Flames and Sharks/Preds picks. In the second round, I successfully picked the Sabres, Ducks and Ottawa victories, but failed to forecast the SJ/Joe Thornton implosion.
Kudos to Detroit. They seem to be getting better as the post season rolls along, despite some significant injuries. I keep expecting the likes of Chelios and Hasek to collapse into sweaty, shuddering heaps, but it continually fails to happen.
Anyways, although I've picked against the Red Wings twice - and been wrong twice - I'm going to do it again in round 3. The Ducks have superior defensive depth now that Detroit has lost Schneider, and an even more capable shut-down trio in Moen, Pahlsson and Niedermayer, which will likely go head-to-head with the Zetterberg line. I would call goaltending a wash, although I keep expecting Hasek's groin to blow-up. Should the Dominator fall, so too shall Detroit.
Ducks in 7.
The Ottawa/Buffalo series promises to be one of the best we've seen in a long time. Both are well-rounded offensive dynamos that made short work of their first 2 opponents - although I'd venture to say that the Sens have looked like the more capable squad thus far. In fact, the Senators have probably been the best club in the league for the last 3 months or so. If Buffalo is unable to bring their "A" game in this 3rd round, I pick Ottawa to win the series and, likely, the cup.
That said, I've liked Buffalo for most of the season and they've become my sentimental favorite. If there's a team capable of knocking down the high-flying Sens, it's them.
Sabres in 7.
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So Matthew Lombardi has been operating on what I would consider the #1 line (Doan-Lombo-Nash) for Canada in the World Championships and Lo and Behold! He's got 8 points in 6 games, including yesterday's hat trick.
I was pimping Lombardi for top 6 duty last summer and I'll be doing it again during this off-season. He struggled at the end of the year, however, keep in mind he frequently played with less quality linemates during that period (Amonte, Primeau, etc.). That is, when he wasn't getting benched or scratched for minor errors.
If Lombardi doesn't usurp Conroy's position among the top 6 come September I may have to just purchase a Buffa-Slug jersey and convert completely.
Kudos to Detroit. They seem to be getting better as the post season rolls along, despite some significant injuries. I keep expecting the likes of Chelios and Hasek to collapse into sweaty, shuddering heaps, but it continually fails to happen.
Anyways, although I've picked against the Red Wings twice - and been wrong twice - I'm going to do it again in round 3. The Ducks have superior defensive depth now that Detroit has lost Schneider, and an even more capable shut-down trio in Moen, Pahlsson and Niedermayer, which will likely go head-to-head with the Zetterberg line. I would call goaltending a wash, although I keep expecting Hasek's groin to blow-up. Should the Dominator fall, so too shall Detroit.
Ducks in 7.
The Ottawa/Buffalo series promises to be one of the best we've seen in a long time. Both are well-rounded offensive dynamos that made short work of their first 2 opponents - although I'd venture to say that the Sens have looked like the more capable squad thus far. In fact, the Senators have probably been the best club in the league for the last 3 months or so. If Buffalo is unable to bring their "A" game in this 3rd round, I pick Ottawa to win the series and, likely, the cup.
That said, I've liked Buffalo for most of the season and they've become my sentimental favorite. If there's a team capable of knocking down the high-flying Sens, it's them.
Sabres in 7.
--------------------------------------------------------
So Matthew Lombardi has been operating on what I would consider the #1 line (Doan-Lombo-Nash) for Canada in the World Championships and Lo and Behold! He's got 8 points in 6 games, including yesterday's hat trick.
I was pimping Lombardi for top 6 duty last summer and I'll be doing it again during this off-season. He struggled at the end of the year, however, keep in mind he frequently played with less quality linemates during that period (Amonte, Primeau, etc.). That is, when he wasn't getting benched or scratched for minor errors.
If Lombardi doesn't usurp Conroy's position among the top 6 come September I may have to just purchase a Buffa-Slug jersey and convert completely.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Save Doan - Updated
I haven't commented on the Shane Doan issue yet; partially because it's completely absurd and partially because all the offending parties in question really want is some attention, which I am loathe to grant them.
That said, here's a quick and efficient way for the citizenry of Canada to tell their politicians that this kind of opportunistic posturing isn't appreciated.
Update - Ironically, Doan scored a hat trick this morning against Belarus. Suck on that Duceppe!
That said, here's a quick and efficient way for the citizenry of Canada to tell their politicians that this kind of opportunistic posturing isn't appreciated.
Update - Ironically, Doan scored a hat trick this morning against Belarus. Suck on that Duceppe!
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Filling the Gaps
Now that we've established what's out there in terms of UFA's, it's time to look at the Flames depth-chart and cap situation.
Assuming the likes of Amonte, Friesen, McCarty, Nilson, Ritchie, Primeau, McLennan and Stuart won't be returning, the resultant depth chart looks something like this:
Tanguay (5.25) - Langkow (2.442) - Iginla (7.0)
Huselius (1.4) - Conroy (2.394) - Moss (0.450)
UNKNOWN - Lombardi (1.8?) - UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN - Yelle (1.4) - UNKNOWN
Regehr (1.875) - Hamrlik (4.0)
Phaneuf (0.785) - Warrener (2.350)
Zyuzin (1.4) - Hale (0.550)
Giordano (0.450)
Kipprusoff (3.333)
McElhinney (0.600)
Total Cap hit: 37.479 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Cap Space: 10.521
The Flames need two bottom-six LWers, one bottom-six RWer, one top-six RWer and a top -two defender. Assuming Sutter will keep a minimum 2 million cap cushion, the Flames therefore have 8.521 million in remaining space to spend on 5 players - an average of
about 1.70 million per player.
Fortunately, Calgary will be able to flesh out a lot of the 3rd and 4th line positions with cheap youngsters. It's debatable who among the crop of notable Omaha Knights will make the cut, although talk is Prust (LW - 0.525) and Taratukhin (C/LW - 0.750) are the front runners. The Flames may want to dip into the UFA pool with the hope of landing a more experienced, undervalued guy like Jeff Hamilton (RW - 0.750).
For discussion purposes, let's assume these are the guys that make the squad. Their combined projected salaries come to 2.025 million, leaving 6.496 million for a top 6 right wing and top 2 blueliner. Hmmm...
The cream of the UFA RWers include:
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Clearly the big fish are out of reach for the Flames. Scratch Teemu, Zubrus, Guerin and the Thug. And Recchi is just too old.
That leaves us with Hartnell, Johnson and Walker.
Scott Hartnell is the youngest, biggest and probably most adept goal scorer of the three. He's managed 93 goals in 436 career games (0.21 GPG) and twice cracked the 20 goal mark. He was also born in Sakatchewan, which is probably a plus in Sutter's book. In 6 NHL seasons, however, he's never managed more than 50 points.
Mike Johnson is known more for his defensive prowess than his offensive abilities. Keep in mind, however, he did manage 63 points in 02/03 and 54 points in 05/06 on some pretty bad Phoenix squads, so he's not totally devoid of skill in the attacking end. That said, he's only twice been a 20 goal-scorer in his 9+ NHL seasons. His GPG pace of 0.19 isn't terribly below Hartnell's, however. He spent the 2nd most time on PK out of any Montreal forward last year, meaning he would be a welcome addition to the Flames lackluster PK.
Scott Walker is a blood and guts kind of player, although he's also the smallest of the 3 players in question. He's scored 20+ goals 3 times in his career, including last season's 21 goal performance. His GPG pace of .18 falls below both Johnson and Hartnell's, although the difference isn't huge. He's getting on in years and seems to be a tad injury prone as well, probably due to his all-or-nothing approach to the game.
The even-strength scoring rates for Hartnell, Johnson and Walker from last year were 2.31 ESP/60, 1.54 ESP/60 and 2.29 ESP/60 respectively. Keep in mind, Johnson played for a team that couldn't seem to score at ES (Canadiens - 122 ES GF, 27th in the league), meaning contextual circumstances may have repressed his rate somewhat.
Hartnell has some impressive advanced stats as well - an on ice +/- figure of 1.44, good for second in terms of forwards on the Preds. Consider that NSH only allowed 1.88 GA/60 while he as on the ice last year - the best rate by far of any forward on the team (keep in mind Walker played less than 700 minutes at ES...a relatively small number). Johnson's numbers aren't as impressive, although he was among the leaders on his team in terms of on ice +/- (0.13) and on ice GA/60 (2.08). Scott Walker was under water in terms of on ice +/- (-0.37) and his on ice GA/60 rate leaves a lot to be desired (3.25). Given that he's older, injury-prone, has some unimpressive advanced stats and the lowest career GPG rate, I would suggest eliminating Walker from contention for the Flames 2nd line RW job.
So is Hartnell worth the $1+ million more than Johnson? Given that he's pretty young and still on the upsiwng of his career, I would suggest "yes". However, if the Flames are unable to land Hartnell, Johnson may be a decent alternative who could be used in a checking/PK role in a pinch.
Let's pretend the Flames land Hartnell for about 2.5/season. Here's how the resultant forward lines might look:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
(Germyn, Boyd, Nystrom, etc.)
The remaining cap space for the top-2 defender after the Hartnell signing would be about 3.996 million. Pending UFA blueliners include:
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Could the Flames coax the likes of Hannan or Andrei Markov to Calgary for 4M? Markov led his team in ice-time in 06/07, including over 274 minutes SH. He finished the year with 49 points and a +2 (the latter being very impressive on the Canadiens). Actually, looking at the season he had last year, I suggest Markov may be a $5M or so defender. Darn. Hannan also led his team in terms of ice-time at ES and SH, while his less than impressive offensive stats (4 goals, 20 assists) may make him more affordable. Tom Preissing had a monster year in Ottawa to go with his very good year in SJ the season before. However, Preissing has excelled on the 3rd pairing thus far, and may not be the "shut-down" guy the Flames need. Preissing only averaged 15 minutes a game with the Sens and was almost NEVER put on the ice in SH situations (10:47 TOI), meaning he's probably going to be overvalued and overpaid this summer. I don't consider him a good option.
Kimo Timonen is likely the best defender available and may get up to $6 million from whoever lands him. He played the most out of any NSH player last season and excels on both the PP and PK. He managed a +20 in 06/07 and has gotten more than 40 points 5 times in his career. he also represents the perfect mobile, fleet-footed foil for Robyn Regehr. My not-so-secret fantasy for the off-season would be the trading of Warrener's bloated contract (2.35 million) for a bag of pucks, which would leave the Flames with the requisite cap space (6.346 million) to go after Timonen.
My resultant fantasy pairings would be:
Regehr - Timonen
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Giordano - Hale
Zyuzin
Though it might be more realistic to see something like Regehr-Hannan or even Regehr-Sydor on the top pairing come September (with Warrener still hobbling along on the 3rd pairing. Ugh). For his part, Sydor is older but seems relatively capable. He doesn't score much anymore, but he's still a 20 minute/night guy and can still play against tougher competition. I believe he was paired with Zubov in Dallas last season. The threat of "diminishing returns" becomes ever more present with guys aged 35+, however.
To be realistic, let's say the Flames land Hannan and keep Rhett. The final depth chart and cap hit would looks something like:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
Regehr - Hannan
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Warrener - Giordano
(Hale, Zyuzin)
Kipper
McElhinney
Total Cap Hit: 46.004 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Assumptions:
The Salary Cap increases to 48 million.
The actual salaries of Hartnell, Timonen, etc. are within 0.5 Million of projected salaries. This is probably wishful thinking.
Hamrlik re-signs with the Flames for $4M/year or less.
Anyways, that's how I see it shaking down at this point. A proven 20 goal scorer added to the top 6, some youthful exuberance on lines 3 and 4 and another shut-down guy to play with Regehr. All for about 46 mill.
Questions? Comments? Complaints? Criticisms?
Assuming the likes of Amonte, Friesen, McCarty, Nilson, Ritchie, Primeau, McLennan and Stuart won't be returning, the resultant depth chart looks something like this:
Tanguay (5.25) - Langkow (2.442) - Iginla (7.0)
Huselius (1.4) - Conroy (2.394) - Moss (0.450)
UNKNOWN - Lombardi (1.8?) - UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN - Yelle (1.4) - UNKNOWN
Regehr (1.875) - Hamrlik (4.0)
Phaneuf (0.785) - Warrener (2.350)
Zyuzin (1.4) - Hale (0.550)
Giordano (0.450)
Kipprusoff (3.333)
McElhinney (0.600)
Total Cap hit: 37.479 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Cap Space: 10.521
The Flames need two bottom-six LWers, one bottom-six RWer, one top-six RWer and a top -two defender. Assuming Sutter will keep a minimum 2 million cap cushion, the Flames therefore have 8.521 million in remaining space to spend on 5 players - an average of
about 1.70 million per player.
Fortunately, Calgary will be able to flesh out a lot of the 3rd and 4th line positions with cheap youngsters. It's debatable who among the crop of notable Omaha Knights will make the cut, although talk is Prust (LW - 0.525) and Taratukhin (C/LW - 0.750) are the front runners. The Flames may want to dip into the UFA pool with the hope of landing a more experienced, undervalued guy like Jeff Hamilton (RW - 0.750).
For discussion purposes, let's assume these are the guys that make the squad. Their combined projected salaries come to 2.025 million, leaving 6.496 million for a top 6 right wing and top 2 blueliner. Hmmm...
The cream of the UFA RWers include:
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Clearly the big fish are out of reach for the Flames. Scratch Teemu, Zubrus, Guerin and the Thug. And Recchi is just too old.
That leaves us with Hartnell, Johnson and Walker.
Scott Hartnell is the youngest, biggest and probably most adept goal scorer of the three. He's managed 93 goals in 436 career games (0.21 GPG) and twice cracked the 20 goal mark. He was also born in Sakatchewan, which is probably a plus in Sutter's book. In 6 NHL seasons, however, he's never managed more than 50 points.
Mike Johnson is known more for his defensive prowess than his offensive abilities. Keep in mind, however, he did manage 63 points in 02/03 and 54 points in 05/06 on some pretty bad Phoenix squads, so he's not totally devoid of skill in the attacking end. That said, he's only twice been a 20 goal-scorer in his 9+ NHL seasons. His GPG pace of 0.19 isn't terribly below Hartnell's, however. He spent the 2nd most time on PK out of any Montreal forward last year, meaning he would be a welcome addition to the Flames lackluster PK.
Scott Walker is a blood and guts kind of player, although he's also the smallest of the 3 players in question. He's scored 20+ goals 3 times in his career, including last season's 21 goal performance. His GPG pace of .18 falls below both Johnson and Hartnell's, although the difference isn't huge. He's getting on in years and seems to be a tad injury prone as well, probably due to his all-or-nothing approach to the game.
The even-strength scoring rates for Hartnell, Johnson and Walker from last year were 2.31 ESP/60, 1.54 ESP/60 and 2.29 ESP/60 respectively. Keep in mind, Johnson played for a team that couldn't seem to score at ES (Canadiens - 122 ES GF, 27th in the league), meaning contextual circumstances may have repressed his rate somewhat.
Hartnell has some impressive advanced stats as well - an on ice +/- figure of 1.44, good for second in terms of forwards on the Preds. Consider that NSH only allowed 1.88 GA/60 while he as on the ice last year - the best rate by far of any forward on the team (keep in mind Walker played less than 700 minutes at ES...a relatively small number). Johnson's numbers aren't as impressive, although he was among the leaders on his team in terms of on ice +/- (0.13) and on ice GA/60 (2.08). Scott Walker was under water in terms of on ice +/- (-0.37) and his on ice GA/60 rate leaves a lot to be desired (3.25). Given that he's older, injury-prone, has some unimpressive advanced stats and the lowest career GPG rate, I would suggest eliminating Walker from contention for the Flames 2nd line RW job.
So is Hartnell worth the $1+ million more than Johnson? Given that he's pretty young and still on the upsiwng of his career, I would suggest "yes". However, if the Flames are unable to land Hartnell, Johnson may be a decent alternative who could be used in a checking/PK role in a pinch.
Let's pretend the Flames land Hartnell for about 2.5/season. Here's how the resultant forward lines might look:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
(Germyn, Boyd, Nystrom, etc.)
The remaining cap space for the top-2 defender after the Hartnell signing would be about 3.996 million. Pending UFA blueliners include:
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Could the Flames coax the likes of Hannan or Andrei Markov to Calgary for 4M? Markov led his team in ice-time in 06/07, including over 274 minutes SH. He finished the year with 49 points and a +2 (the latter being very impressive on the Canadiens). Actually, looking at the season he had last year, I suggest Markov may be a $5M or so defender. Darn. Hannan also led his team in terms of ice-time at ES and SH, while his less than impressive offensive stats (4 goals, 20 assists) may make him more affordable. Tom Preissing had a monster year in Ottawa to go with his very good year in SJ the season before. However, Preissing has excelled on the 3rd pairing thus far, and may not be the "shut-down" guy the Flames need. Preissing only averaged 15 minutes a game with the Sens and was almost NEVER put on the ice in SH situations (10:47 TOI), meaning he's probably going to be overvalued and overpaid this summer. I don't consider him a good option.
Kimo Timonen is likely the best defender available and may get up to $6 million from whoever lands him. He played the most out of any NSH player last season and excels on both the PP and PK. He managed a +20 in 06/07 and has gotten more than 40 points 5 times in his career. he also represents the perfect mobile, fleet-footed foil for Robyn Regehr. My not-so-secret fantasy for the off-season would be the trading of Warrener's bloated contract (2.35 million) for a bag of pucks, which would leave the Flames with the requisite cap space (6.346 million) to go after Timonen.
My resultant fantasy pairings would be:
Regehr - Timonen
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Giordano - Hale
Zyuzin
Though it might be more realistic to see something like Regehr-Hannan or even Regehr-Sydor on the top pairing come September (with Warrener still hobbling along on the 3rd pairing. Ugh). For his part, Sydor is older but seems relatively capable. He doesn't score much anymore, but he's still a 20 minute/night guy and can still play against tougher competition. I believe he was paired with Zubov in Dallas last season. The threat of "diminishing returns" becomes ever more present with guys aged 35+, however.
To be realistic, let's say the Flames land Hannan and keep Rhett. The final depth chart and cap hit would looks something like:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
Regehr - Hannan
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Warrener - Giordano
(Hale, Zyuzin)
Kipper
McElhinney
Total Cap Hit: 46.004 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Assumptions:
The Salary Cap increases to 48 million.
The actual salaries of Hartnell, Timonen, etc. are within 0.5 Million of projected salaries. This is probably wishful thinking.
Hamrlik re-signs with the Flames for $4M/year or less.
Anyways, that's how I see it shaking down at this point. A proven 20 goal scorer added to the top 6, some youthful exuberance on lines 3 and 4 and another shut-down guy to play with Regehr. All for about 46 mill.
Questions? Comments? Complaints? Criticisms?
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Shopping List Cont'd
Yesterday's post included the potential '07 UFA's at right wing, center and defence positions. Following are the left wingers and the goaltenders:
LW: Potential Salary
Ryan Smyth: 5.5M
Paul Kariya: 4.5M
Ladislav Nagy: 4.0M
Jason Blake: 4.0M
Keith Tkachuk: 4.0M
Vycheslav Kozlov: 3.5M
Brendan Shanahan: 3.0M
Kyle Calder: 2.0M
Taylor Pyatt: 1.5M
Richard Zednick: 1.5M
Gary Roberts: 1.5M
Ruslan Fedotenko: 1.5M
Jan Bulis: 1.0M
Kirk Maltby: 1.0M
Chris Simon: 1.0M
Marcus Nilson: 0.9
Jeff Cowan: 0.9
Denis Arkhipov: 0.9
Martin Gelinas: 0.9
Vladamir Orszagh: 0.8
Dean McAmmond: 0.8
Pascal Dupuis: 0.8
Jeff Friesen: 0.7
Antti Laaksonen: 0.7
Brad May: 0.7
Bates Battaglia: 0.7
Jon Sim: 0.7
Ville Nieminen: 0.6
Brad Isbister: 0.6
Josh Green: 0.5
Peter Sejna: 0.5
Dan LaCouture: 0.5
Eric Boulton: 0.5
Brad Larsen: 0.5
Noah Clarke: 0.45
Mathieu Darche: 0.45
Matt Ellis: 0.45
Ramzi Abid: 0.45
Todd Fedoruk: 0.45
Boyd Kane: 0.45
Riley Cote: 0.45
As with the other positions, take the "potential salary" with a grain of salt. It's basically just an easy method for me to order the players from "top tier" to "bottom tier". I mean, I think Ryan Smyth's going to be getting between $5 and $6 million this summer - but predicting the frenzied chaos of free agency is a bit of a fools errand.
The Flames have 2 top notch LWer's who I am very satisfied with (Tanguay and Huselius). With the impending departure of Marcus Nilson, Calgary may have to dip into the market for a bottom 6 guy, although that gap may be filled by a youngster anyhow. From a "buy low/sell high" kind of mindset, Kyle Calder and Ruslan Fedotenko might be worth a look, assuming you believe their terrible seasons last year were aberrations. If they come at the prices listed, they would probably be worthy gambles. Calder in particular has the potential to be a capable top 6 forward.
Next...the 'tenders
Goaltenders: Potential Salary
J.S. Giguere: 5.5M
Niklas Backstrom: 3.0M
Curtis Joseph : 2.0M
Dominik Hasek: 2.0M
David Aebischer: 1.9M
Mathieu Garon: 1.5M
Kevin Weekes: 1.5M
Johan Holmqvist: 1.5M
Robert Esche: 1.0M
Jocelyn Thibault: 1.0M
Jussi Markkanen: 0.9
Sean Burke: 0.9
Ed Belfour: 0.7
Jamie McLennan: 0.5
Ty Conklin: 0.5
JS Aubin: 0.5
Scott Clemmensen: 0.5
Mike Dunham: 0.5
Wade Dubielewicz: 0.5
Wade Flaherty: 0.45
Brian Boucher: 0.45
Karl Goehring: 0.45
Giguere is the undisputed crown jewl of this crop, although Im guessing Backstrom will conjure some significant interest as well. Course, there's a high probability that both of these guys will be re-signed by their current squads, so...
The Flames might be shopping for a back-up goaltender if they don't think McElhinney can make the jump (or if they think sitting behind Kipper for 70 games would be bad for his development). Unfortunately, back-up goalies are kinda like socks - you know you need 'em but you don't want to spend money on 'em anyways. With that in mind, none of the possibilities really get me very excited. Should the Flames go with a proven, but older and possibly injury prone guy like Burke? Maybe fellow Fin Jussi Markkanen would work behind Kipper? Or, should Sutter just admit the guy he gets isn't going to play much and sign a cheap, warm body like Dunham? It's a tough tightrope to walk - finding a player who's cheap, doesn't mind working the bench most of the season but is still effective when called upon. Personally, I hope one of the kids gets a shot, myself.
The next step will be to fully assess the Flames roster needs and cap space and start plugging the holes with the most appropriate names. Expect that to follow later in the week.
This 'n That:
Ansar Kahn, beat writer for the Detroit Red Wings recently slammed Jim Playfair in an interview. The offending quote was as follows:
The only reason the Calgary series deteriorated in Game 5 was because Flames coach Jim Playfair lost control of his players, not that he ever had much control to begin with. I've seen a lot of lousy coaches over the years and Playfair has to be near the top of the list. Calgary's abysmal road record alone indicates this guy's inability to manage his bench properly.
Nice to have an outsiders perspective on Nervous Jimmy. the entire thing can be found over at the Sharkspage. Hattip to Colin S over at Duncan's blog for the link.
Jarome Iginla's half-sister, Theresa Iginla, is apparently kicking some butt at the College level of female hockey. Considering her pedigree and his rapid rate of decline, I would suggest Theresa and Tony Amonte are on about the same level these days.
LW: Potential Salary
Ryan Smyth: 5.5M
Paul Kariya: 4.5M
Ladislav Nagy: 4.0M
Jason Blake: 4.0M
Keith Tkachuk: 4.0M
Vycheslav Kozlov: 3.5M
Brendan Shanahan: 3.0M
Kyle Calder: 2.0M
Taylor Pyatt: 1.5M
Richard Zednick: 1.5M
Gary Roberts: 1.5M
Ruslan Fedotenko: 1.5M
Jan Bulis: 1.0M
Kirk Maltby: 1.0M
Chris Simon: 1.0M
Marcus Nilson: 0.9
Jeff Cowan: 0.9
Denis Arkhipov: 0.9
Martin Gelinas: 0.9
Vladamir Orszagh: 0.8
Dean McAmmond: 0.8
Pascal Dupuis: 0.8
Jeff Friesen: 0.7
Antti Laaksonen: 0.7
Brad May: 0.7
Bates Battaglia: 0.7
Jon Sim: 0.7
Ville Nieminen: 0.6
Brad Isbister: 0.6
Josh Green: 0.5
Peter Sejna: 0.5
Dan LaCouture: 0.5
Eric Boulton: 0.5
Brad Larsen: 0.5
Noah Clarke: 0.45
Mathieu Darche: 0.45
Matt Ellis: 0.45
Ramzi Abid: 0.45
Todd Fedoruk: 0.45
Boyd Kane: 0.45
Riley Cote: 0.45
As with the other positions, take the "potential salary" with a grain of salt. It's basically just an easy method for me to order the players from "top tier" to "bottom tier". I mean, I think Ryan Smyth's going to be getting between $5 and $6 million this summer - but predicting the frenzied chaos of free agency is a bit of a fools errand.
The Flames have 2 top notch LWer's who I am very satisfied with (Tanguay and Huselius). With the impending departure of Marcus Nilson, Calgary may have to dip into the market for a bottom 6 guy, although that gap may be filled by a youngster anyhow. From a "buy low/sell high" kind of mindset, Kyle Calder and Ruslan Fedotenko might be worth a look, assuming you believe their terrible seasons last year were aberrations. If they come at the prices listed, they would probably be worthy gambles. Calder in particular has the potential to be a capable top 6 forward.
Next...the 'tenders
Goaltenders: Potential Salary
J.S. Giguere: 5.5M
Niklas Backstrom: 3.0M
Curtis Joseph : 2.0M
Dominik Hasek: 2.0M
David Aebischer: 1.9M
Mathieu Garon: 1.5M
Kevin Weekes: 1.5M
Johan Holmqvist: 1.5M
Robert Esche: 1.0M
Jocelyn Thibault: 1.0M
Jussi Markkanen: 0.9
Sean Burke: 0.9
Ed Belfour: 0.7
Jamie McLennan: 0.5
Ty Conklin: 0.5
JS Aubin: 0.5
Scott Clemmensen: 0.5
Mike Dunham: 0.5
Wade Dubielewicz: 0.5
Wade Flaherty: 0.45
Brian Boucher: 0.45
Karl Goehring: 0.45
Giguere is the undisputed crown jewl of this crop, although Im guessing Backstrom will conjure some significant interest as well. Course, there's a high probability that both of these guys will be re-signed by their current squads, so...
The Flames might be shopping for a back-up goaltender if they don't think McElhinney can make the jump (or if they think sitting behind Kipper for 70 games would be bad for his development). Unfortunately, back-up goalies are kinda like socks - you know you need 'em but you don't want to spend money on 'em anyways. With that in mind, none of the possibilities really get me very excited. Should the Flames go with a proven, but older and possibly injury prone guy like Burke? Maybe fellow Fin Jussi Markkanen would work behind Kipper? Or, should Sutter just admit the guy he gets isn't going to play much and sign a cheap, warm body like Dunham? It's a tough tightrope to walk - finding a player who's cheap, doesn't mind working the bench most of the season but is still effective when called upon. Personally, I hope one of the kids gets a shot, myself.
The next step will be to fully assess the Flames roster needs and cap space and start plugging the holes with the most appropriate names. Expect that to follow later in the week.
This 'n That:
Ansar Kahn, beat writer for the Detroit Red Wings recently slammed Jim Playfair in an interview. The offending quote was as follows:
The only reason the Calgary series deteriorated in Game 5 was because Flames coach Jim Playfair lost control of his players, not that he ever had much control to begin with. I've seen a lot of lousy coaches over the years and Playfair has to be near the top of the list. Calgary's abysmal road record alone indicates this guy's inability to manage his bench properly.
Nice to have an outsiders perspective on Nervous Jimmy. the entire thing can be found over at the Sharkspage. Hattip to Colin S over at Duncan's blog for the link.
Jarome Iginla's half-sister, Theresa Iginla, is apparently kicking some butt at the College level of female hockey. Considering her pedigree and his rapid rate of decline, I would suggest Theresa and Tony Amonte are on about the same level these days.
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