Now that we've established what's out there in terms of UFA's, it's time to look at the Flames depth-chart and cap situation.
Assuming the likes of Amonte, Friesen, McCarty, Nilson, Ritchie, Primeau, McLennan and Stuart won't be returning, the resultant depth chart looks something like this:
Tanguay (5.25) - Langkow (2.442) - Iginla (7.0)
Huselius (1.4) - Conroy (2.394) - Moss (0.450)
UNKNOWN - Lombardi (1.8?) - UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN - Yelle (1.4) - UNKNOWN
Regehr (1.875) - Hamrlik (4.0)
Phaneuf (0.785) - Warrener (2.350)
Zyuzin (1.4) - Hale (0.550)
Giordano (0.450)
Kipprusoff (3.333)
McElhinney (0.600)
Total Cap hit: 37.479 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Cap Space: 10.521
The Flames need two bottom-six LWers, one bottom-six RWer, one top-six RWer and a top -two defender. Assuming Sutter will keep a minimum 2 million cap cushion, the Flames therefore have 8.521 million in remaining space to spend on 5 players - an average of
about 1.70 million per player.
Fortunately, Calgary will be able to flesh out a lot of the 3rd and 4th line positions with cheap youngsters. It's debatable who among the crop of notable Omaha Knights will make the cut, although talk is Prust (LW - 0.525) and Taratukhin (C/LW - 0.750) are the front runners. The Flames may want to dip into the UFA pool with the hope of landing a more experienced, undervalued guy like Jeff Hamilton (RW - 0.750).
For discussion purposes, let's assume these are the guys that make the squad. Their combined projected salaries come to 2.025 million, leaving 6.496 million for a top 6 right wing and top 2 blueliner. Hmmm...
The cream of the UFA RWers include:
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Clearly the big fish are out of reach for the Flames. Scratch Teemu, Zubrus, Guerin and the Thug. And Recchi is just too old.
That leaves us with Hartnell, Johnson and Walker.
Scott Hartnell is the youngest, biggest and probably most adept goal scorer of the three. He's managed 93 goals in 436 career games (0.21 GPG) and twice cracked the 20 goal mark. He was also born in Sakatchewan, which is probably a plus in Sutter's book. In 6 NHL seasons, however, he's never managed more than 50 points.
Mike Johnson is known more for his defensive prowess than his offensive abilities. Keep in mind, however, he did manage 63 points in 02/03 and 54 points in 05/06 on some pretty bad Phoenix squads, so he's not totally devoid of skill in the attacking end. That said, he's only twice been a 20 goal-scorer in his 9+ NHL seasons. His GPG pace of 0.19 isn't terribly below Hartnell's, however. He spent the 2nd most time on PK out of any Montreal forward last year, meaning he would be a welcome addition to the Flames lackluster PK.
Scott Walker is a blood and guts kind of player, although he's also the smallest of the 3 players in question. He's scored 20+ goals 3 times in his career, including last season's 21 goal performance. His GPG pace of .18 falls below both Johnson and Hartnell's, although the difference isn't huge. He's getting on in years and seems to be a tad injury prone as well, probably due to his all-or-nothing approach to the game.
The even-strength scoring rates for Hartnell, Johnson and Walker from last year were 2.31 ESP/60, 1.54 ESP/60 and 2.29 ESP/60 respectively. Keep in mind, Johnson played for a team that couldn't seem to score at ES (Canadiens - 122 ES GF, 27th in the league), meaning contextual circumstances may have repressed his rate somewhat.
Hartnell has some impressive advanced stats as well - an on ice +/- figure of 1.44, good for second in terms of forwards on the Preds. Consider that NSH only allowed 1.88 GA/60 while he as on the ice last year - the best rate by far of any forward on the team (keep in mind Walker played less than 700 minutes at ES...a relatively small number). Johnson's numbers aren't as impressive, although he was among the leaders on his team in terms of on ice +/- (0.13) and on ice GA/60 (2.08). Scott Walker was under water in terms of on ice +/- (-0.37) and his on ice GA/60 rate leaves a lot to be desired (3.25). Given that he's older, injury-prone, has some unimpressive advanced stats and the lowest career GPG rate, I would suggest eliminating Walker from contention for the Flames 2nd line RW job.
So is Hartnell worth the $1+ million more than Johnson? Given that he's pretty young and still on the upsiwng of his career, I would suggest "yes". However, if the Flames are unable to land Hartnell, Johnson may be a decent alternative who could be used in a checking/PK role in a pinch.
Let's pretend the Flames land Hartnell for about 2.5/season. Here's how the resultant forward lines might look:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
(Germyn, Boyd, Nystrom, etc.)
The remaining cap space for the top-2 defender after the Hartnell signing would be about 3.996 million. Pending UFA blueliners include:
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Could the Flames coax the likes of Hannan or Andrei Markov to Calgary for 4M? Markov led his team in ice-time in 06/07, including over 274 minutes SH. He finished the year with 49 points and a +2 (the latter being very impressive on the Canadiens). Actually, looking at the season he had last year, I suggest Markov may be a $5M or so defender. Darn. Hannan also led his team in terms of ice-time at ES and SH, while his less than impressive offensive stats (4 goals, 20 assists) may make him more affordable. Tom Preissing had a monster year in Ottawa to go with his very good year in SJ the season before. However, Preissing has excelled on the 3rd pairing thus far, and may not be the "shut-down" guy the Flames need. Preissing only averaged 15 minutes a game with the Sens and was almost NEVER put on the ice in SH situations (10:47 TOI), meaning he's probably going to be overvalued and overpaid this summer. I don't consider him a good option.
Kimo Timonen is likely the best defender available and may get up to $6 million from whoever lands him. He played the most out of any NSH player last season and excels on both the PP and PK. He managed a +20 in 06/07 and has gotten more than 40 points 5 times in his career. he also represents the perfect mobile, fleet-footed foil for Robyn Regehr. My not-so-secret fantasy for the off-season would be the trading of Warrener's bloated contract (2.35 million) for a bag of pucks, which would leave the Flames with the requisite cap space (6.346 million) to go after Timonen.
My resultant fantasy pairings would be:
Regehr - Timonen
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Giordano - Hale
Zyuzin
Though it might be more realistic to see something like Regehr-Hannan or even Regehr-Sydor on the top pairing come September (with Warrener still hobbling along on the 3rd pairing. Ugh). For his part, Sydor is older but seems relatively capable. He doesn't score much anymore, but he's still a 20 minute/night guy and can still play against tougher competition. I believe he was paired with Zubov in Dallas last season. The threat of "diminishing returns" becomes ever more present with guys aged 35+, however.
To be realistic, let's say the Flames land Hannan and keep Rhett. The final depth chart and cap hit would looks something like:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
Regehr - Hannan
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Warrener - Giordano
(Hale, Zyuzin)
Kipper
McElhinney
Total Cap Hit: 46.004 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Assumptions:
The Salary Cap increases to 48 million.
The actual salaries of Hartnell, Timonen, etc. are within 0.5 Million of projected salaries. This is probably wishful thinking.
Hamrlik re-signs with the Flames for $4M/year or less.
Anyways, that's how I see it shaking down at this point. A proven 20 goal scorer added to the top 6, some youthful exuberance on lines 3 and 4 and another shut-down guy to play with Regehr. All for about 46 mill.
Questions? Comments? Complaints? Criticisms?
