Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Considering Pre and Post December Records

Commenter Greg requested something of a retroactive "standings update" for the Flames a couple of posts ago. To that end, I took a look at Calgary's Pre and Post December 1st records:

Pre-Dec.1: 10-13-3. 70GF, 79GA, -9GD. 2.67 GF/G, 3.03 GA/G. 38% win percentage.
Post Dec.1: 26-10-7. 122GF, 108GA, +14 GD. 2.84 GF/G, 2.51 GA/G. 60% win percentage.

The Flames were average in October and abysmal in November. Their goaltending and PK% ranked among the very worst in the league (thus the terrible GA per game average) by November 30.

Since then, the Flames have improved the PK (Kipper and Regehr turned things around) and goal out-put (even though the PP has gotten steadily worse as the season has progressed).

That apres November record looks pretty good, but how does it compare to the other WC contenders**?

Detroit post-Dec.1: 29-12-4, 64% win percentage.

Dallas post-Dec.1: 29-16-1, 63% win percentage.

San Jose post-Dec.1: 29-13-4, 63% win percentage.

Anaheim post-Dec.1: 27-14-4, 60% win percentage.

Minny post-Dec.1: 23-17-5, 51% win percentage.

**(Im going to to skip doing the GF/GA stuff for the other teams. Because I frankly can't be bothered with it).

So Calgary has lost the least amount of regulation games of the teams considered, which is a good sign. If the Flames were a little better at OT and the SO, their record would be even more impressive...

Curiosity - Is it concerning or merely odd that Calgary only made modest gains in terms of GD after November? They were -9 on December 1 and are only +5 now. I guess that's what a bottom third PP will get you, even if you're managing to win more than you lose...

For fun, and since they're this evening's opponent, let's do the Caps:

Pre-Dec.1: 8-16-2, 31% win percent.
Post-Dec.1: 24-14-6, 55% win percent.

Not too shabby. It would actually be closer to 59% if Brashear hadn't blown a gasket against Boston and Backstrom hadn't scored on his own net** against the Pens this weekend.

**(The young rookie could be heard lamenting in the dressing room afterwards, "like flies to wanton boys we are to the hockey gods...". Except, in Swedish.)