Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The Final Countdown

Heading into the final 10 games and the NW is a ridiculous as ever:

Minny - 86
Calgary - 84
Vancouver - 84
Colorado - 84
Edmonton - Doesn't Matter

After Columbus, the Flames play 9 straight against their divisional rivals. From the "nothing's ever easy" motif that seems to dominate this corner of the league, Im guessing all the play-off teams will basically split their series with the other play-off teams and it'll all come down to who can glean the most points from the Spoilers down the stretch. And - wouldn't you know it? - Edmonton's been walking on water recently. They're somehow the hottest team in the division with an 8-2-0 record in their last 10, and have nothing beyond pride and spite to play for. Those aren't circumstances that fill me with optimism. Because, as mentioned here on numerous occasions, Calgary isn't just jockeying for a play-off spot here: they're jockeying for position. An 8th place finish all but guarantees another humiliating 6 (or less) and out at the hands of the Red Wings. If Sutter and the boys want to win a series for the first time since the miracle run, "8th isn't good enough" has to be their attitude from now until the end of the regular season. And Im sure KLowe and MacT and T-Bird and FunBoy and R2D2 and whoever else up North would just love to hand the Flames a few losses and ensure another figurative castration at the Joe in April.

Tidbits:

- Jarome Iginla is the NHL's first star from last week. He's also been one of the best forwards in the league over the last 30 days, which isn't much of a surprise I guess. What might be though is both Dion Phaneuf and Miikka Kiprusoff have been pace setters over the last month or so as well (via Mirtle). Let's see if Phaneuf can keep it up now that he's got Bubba riding shot-gun again.

As for Miikka, here's how his SV% graph looks these days:

Slow but steady...

- Yup, Rhett Warrener is injured. Again. He somehow managed to break his ankle in practice. He hasn't played since March 4th and was only averaging about 14 minutes a game when he was playing...and he's still getting hurt. Brittle as a Flake bar. Question: how do you know your athletic career is winding down? Answer: when your injury page is as long and varied as Amy Winehouse's illicit substance addiction list -

05-Jan-08 Missed 19 games (fractured leg).
29-Nov-07 Fractured leg, late January.
25-Nov-07 Leg injury, day-to-day.
13-Nov-07 Missed 4 games (throat).
03-Nov-07 Throat, day-to-day.
20-Mar-07 Missed 3 games (undisclosed).
14-Mar-07 Undisclosed injury, sidelined indefinitely.
10-Feb-07 Missed 2 games (arm injury).
06-Feb-07 Arm injury, day-to-day.
23-Dec-06 Missed 5 games (leg injury).
12-Dec-06 Leg injury, day-to-day.
28-Nov-06 Missed 1 game (hip injury).
26-Nov-06 Hip injury, day-to-day.
17-Oct-06 Missed 5 games (knee injury).
05-Oct-06 Knee injury, mid-October.
11-Apr-06 Missed 17 games (sprained MCL).
09-Mar-06 Sprained MCL, mid-April.
06-Jan-06 Missed 3 games (knee injury).
29-Dec-05 Knee injury, day-to-day.

TSN has yet to add the fractured ankle to the top there. May I suggest:

18-Mar-08 Fractured ankle (just retire already. I mean...who are you trying to kid here? Entire families performing trapeze in the circus don't get hurt this much. Knee? Hip? Leg? Ankle? Throat!? UNDISCLOSED?? Rhett, seriously...ask not for whom the gong tolls).

- Another hit to the "defensive depth" (not really though)! I find it ironic that the 03-04 run instilled in Sutter this anxiety of "not having enough defensemen" for the post-season: primarily because, so far, that has been the only year his Flames have garnered any kind of play-off success.

In fact, It could be argued that Sutter's efforts to buffer the back-end and avoid another Brennan Evans episode has actually hurt the team as much as (or more than) it's helped it the last few years (the Brad Stuart trade, signing Eriksson, hanging on to Warrener, etc.). It's particularly galling when considering some of the players Sutter has allowed to slip through his fingers during the same time frame (Toni Lydman, Mike Commodore, Mark Giordano) for little or no return.

Just imagine how much better this defense corps would be:

Regehr (4M)-Sarich (3.6M)
Phaneuf (6.5M)-Lydman (2.875M)
Commodore (2M?)-Ference (1.4M)
Giordano (800k)

total salary: 21.175M

Versus next year's probable back-end of...

Regehr (4M)-Sarich(3.6M)
Phaneuf (6.5M)-Aucoin (4M)
Eriksson (1.5M)-Warrener (2.35M)
Vandermeer? (1.5M) or Hale (700k)

total salary: 23.45M with Vandermeer or 22.65 with Hale.

Ugh. Looking at that pricey yet ineffective crew makes me want to stop worrying about the last 10 games of the season and start worrying about the summer and the start of next season instead.

- Alex Tanguay with a broken big toe. That's certainly more of a concern...not only because Tanguay is a difference maker on this team, but because his potential replacements on the "2nd line" (term employed loosely) are Wayne Primeau and Marcus Nilson. Hopefully, Alex won't actually miss any time so we won't have witness that ugly scenario. According to Inside the Flames, he's a GTD against the BJs tonight, so that's encouraging.

- The news isn't as good for Nyzerman though. Sounds like he might have a concussion after being demolished by Chicago's Adam Burish. It's probably a blessing in disguise, because Nystrom the younger, for all his effort and will to fight people he shouldn't fight, looked like a man drowning whenever he took to the ice recently.

All told, I think the Nystrom experiment this season has gone rather poorly. I was somewhat encouraged earlier in the year when he kinda looked like he might be a Stephane Yelle type player, but that quickly fell by the wayside. Eric is already 25, so not much more growth can be expected out of him. He's a total void in the offensive zone and his decision making with the puck, particularly anywhere near either blueline or in open ice is "questionable" at best. He has the fire to compete, can skate pretty well and he likes blocking shots. But that's about it. Add in his age and penchant for getting injured and the future isn't a bright one for the former first rounder. Unless he takes some sort of inexplicable quantum leap forward next year, I would guess he's bound to remain 4th line/AHL fodder for the remainder of his career.