Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Projecting the back-end

We've already fiddled with the forward combinations so I guess its time to look at the blueline. Calgary currently has 8 defenders signed, although chances are at least one of Warrener or Eriksson won't be around in October (preferably both in my mind).

Last year the common duos were -

Regehr - Sarich
Phaneuf - Eriksson/Vandermeer
Aucoin - Hale

Warrener

Aucoin began the season in the top 4 at ES, spending most of his time with Phaneuf, before it became clear that role was a little beyond him. Of course, Anders Eriksson wasn't capable of it either, creating a bit of an obvious hole filled by an unsatisfying revolving door of lackluster partners for the Norris candidate.

Unless something major happens, the Flames will be facing a similar issue this season. While pretty much anyone outside of Cory Cross would represent a leap up from Bubba, none of the remaining candidates represent more than a marginal improvement. I say that without knowing the degree to which Mark Giordano developed overseas last year, of course. I've heard he was a top pairing defender for his club with Danny Markov and his selection to Team Canada in the World Championships this spring was a good sign. However, without really knowing who he played against or how he played (and the degree to which that will translate to the NHL), it's difficult to confidently and rationally project him in a top role 4 next year.

Here's what we got:

Regehr - Sarich
Phaneuf - Vandermeer (?)
Aucoin - Giordano

Warrener (?), Eriksson (?), Pardy (?)

Here's what I'd like to see:

1.) Regehr - Phaneuf.

Im going to assume for now that Jarome Iginla goes power v. power next year. If so, one would also assume that he'll mostly play with the shut-down pairing (Reggie/Sarich). However, Keenan made a habit of playing Phaneuf behind Jarome previously, likely in an effort to maximize ES scoring.

I therefore think it's possible that Dion is paired with Regehr and they play the toughest competition with Iggy at ES. This would also place Phaneuf in very good surroundings (ie; highly capable linemates) so he could take some steps forward in terms of playing against quality competition. This is the first year of Dion's new deal (6.5M), so Phaneuf has to start delivering more than just big hits and PP scoring. He has to start taking on the big boys if the team is going to garner value from that contract.

2.) Sarich - ?

That leaves Cory Sarich anchoring the 2nd pairing with the big question mark. Who's it gonna be? Probably 2.3M Jim Vandermeer to start the season I'd imagine. If so, that's not a 2nd pairing that overly impresses me. Then again, while offensively inept, it'll probably be better defensively than the chaos duo of Phaneuf/Eriksson last year. However, if Vandermeer falters in the manner he did towards the end of the season and the play-offs (or if Gio excels beyond expectations) I can see him being dropped into the 3rd pairing.

3.) That leaves Aucoin and Giordano for the final pairing. Both will be getting PP time, neither will be killing many penalties and they should be capable of handling the nobodies.

I'm also interested to see how the PP assignments shape up. Last season, Calgary had a decent first PP unit (Langkow-Iginla-Huselius, Phaneuf-Aucoin) and a laughably bad second unit (Conroy-Nolan-Tanguay, Eriksson-Regehr). The latter was terrible partially due to the ho-hum forwards and partially due to the fumbling back-end.

Robyn Regehr is an elite defenseman in many ways. Most of them start - and stop - at his own blueline. In the offensive end, his painfully slow wind-up is easy to block or disrupt while the shots that do get through are often too high or well wide anyways. Then there was Anders Eriksson, a man with the uncanny ability to allow almost any puck that comes near him to escape the offensive zone. Certainly one of the more consistent and galling features of his boobery.

The Flames have actually added two new blueline PP options this off-season: Mark Giordano and Mike Cammalleri. I think this ups the probability that the 2nd PP team won't totally suck ass next year, given that both units might actually have someone worth a damn (offensively speaking) running things at the blueline. Does Cammalleri get time with Phaneuf on the first unit or is he better reserved as the one-timer option on unit 2 with Giordano?

Questions abound!