Thursday, July 03, 2008

Taking stock

With activity slowing down and the Flames already making the bulk of their moves, it's time to take stock of what's been done so far.

In: Curtis Glencross (1.2M/year), Rene Bourque (RFA), Mark Giordano (800k?), Jim Vandermeer (1.63M) (2.3M), Mike Cammalleri (3.35M), Brandon Prust (500k), Curtis McElhinney (650k)

Other: Pete Vandermeer, Ryan Wilson (farm filler), Kyle Greentree, David Van Der Gulik (retained), Eric Nystrom (retained), Conroy (discount retained)

Out: Kristian Huselius (1.4M), Owen Nolan (likely) (2M), Stephane Yelle (1M), Alex Tanguay (5.25M), Eric Godard (482k), Curtis Joseph (650k), David Hale (590k), Mark Smith (487k)

Other: Rhett Warrener (2.35M), Anders Eriksson (1.5M), Marcus Nilson (1M) (waivers)

Total In (not counting "other"): 8.13M 8.8M + RFA (1.5M estimate) = 10.3M

Total Out (not counting "other"): 11.859M

Current cap room: 2.171M

Notes:

The Vandermeer contract above is bolded because the number in the Herald today contrasts what was reported earlier:

...defenceman/occasional forward Jim Vandermeer, retained at three years and $4.9 million

The new 1.63M is much more in-line with what I think Vandermeer is worth, so Im hoping the correction sticks.

EDIT - Apparently that's an error and the previous number (2.3M) is the correct one. Boo!

The Flames currently have 13 forwards under contract, counting Bourque who will no doubt be signed soon. They also have 8 defensemen, including the likes of Warrener and Eriksson, who are still *technically* part of the team and on the payroll despite being put on waivers last week.

Of the Flames 13 forwards, perhaps 4 of them can be considered top 6 players (Cammalleri, Iginla, Langkow, Lombardi), with maybe one or two others with the "potential" to play there now or in the future (Boyd, Bourque). The rest - from Primeau to Glencross to Conroy to Moss - are better suited to bottom 6 ("checking" or "energy") assignments.

From where we stand now, it looks like Sutter realized it was tough to hide the bottom half of the roster on a nightly basis and decided to firm up that portion of the team. Unfortunately, it's seemingly come at the expense of the upper half of the roster, with the Flames shuffling out 3 top 6 forwards (Nolan, Huselius and Tanguay) and adding only one in their stead (Cammalleri). The current party line from Sutter is "the kids have to step up", meaning Boyd, Lomabrdi and Moss (or Bourque) I suppose. If so, some heavy sheltering is going to have to happen if Keenan wants Lombardi-Boyd-Moss (or a similar configuration) to outscore anyone.

Calgary's defense currently shares the same affliction: lots of players, most of them tailored to a supporting (ie; third pairing) role - Aucoin, Vandermeer, Giordano, Warrener and Eriksson (if they stick around - which would be bad). I don't know where Gio is in terms of his progression, but hoping he'll step into the breach is probably betting on long-odds. The other guys have even less hope of doing so adequately (past their prime or too low a ceiling).

That said, I've mostly liked what Sutter's done so far. I have three primary of hopes going forward:

1.) Warrener, Eriksson and Nilson go away somehow. Sutter has said the players wont be bought out and has hinted that they may still be given a shot to "make the team". But he's also suggested they can't all be here come October:

"We're not buying players out," said Sutter, who had raised that very possibility last week. "They sign (contracts), they honour them, it's simple."

Still, it stands to reason the blue-line ranks will be thinned before opening night. "Robyn (Regehr) and Cory (Sarich) and Dion (Phaneuf) and Jimmy and Gio, they're all still young guys and they're all going to improve," said Sutter. "Then you have the three veterans (Eriksson, Warrener and Adrian Aucoin), those three are going to fight for spots to play on our team. And they're not all going to be here, that's obvious."


Let's face it: Only Aucoin has any chance to "play on the team". He's also the only one who would have any value to other clubs in a trade. The only way I can see dumping the likes of Warrener, Eriksson and maybe even Nilson is by giving them up to a club the needs salary to reach the cap floor (LAK, for example).

2.) One of the remaining anchors is dealt. If you look at the Flames salary commitments, 2 players stand out like sore thumbs: Wayne Primeau @ 1.4M (Calgary's 5th highest paid forward) and Adrian Aucoin @ 4M (tied with Regehr for 2nd highest paid defenseman). Assuming Warrener and co. go away, Aucoin and Primeau are the last two bad value deals the Flames have on the books. I'd like to see at least one of them take a walk before the season begins.

3.) One of the big holes is plugged. Be it a top 6 winger or a top 4 defensemen, Sutter should be looking to solidify the top of the rotation in some manner before the season begins. I like the additions so far, and some of the (potential) purges, but the team is going to struggle to compete if it goes into the year with glaring holes in both the front and back-ends.

That's it so far. I didn't get into the cap-space concerns (2.171 remaining with Bourque yet to be signed) because that area is pretty fuzzy. If items 1 and or 2 above come true, the Flames probably dont have any concerns in that area.

Still lots of time and potential moves left. Im worried about the team's competitiveness as the roster stands currently but am liking the general direction of the management thus far.