Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Gamday - Flames vs Ducks...thoughts

- Calgary have played well in the last 10, but they still have a rather unsavory record against the better clubs in the league. And the players know it.

Twelve of the Flames 18 wins have come against the lower rung - think St. Louis, Nashville, Phoenix and Colorado. By my subjective and completely unscientific criteria, Calgary has only beaten quality opposition 6 times in 33 games so far this year.

- Jarome Iginla's season of "meh" continues, although he's improved his various underlying numbers recently. He's finally in the black at ES and his ESP/rate is slowly inching towards elite level again. He still trails Bourque and Glencross by the latter metric, but my money is on him overtaking them by January or so.

- Jamie Lundmark was sent down recently with Brett Sutter called up in his stead.

Now, I don't know the club's goals or policy regarding the farm call-ups. Maybe they want to give a handful of players a turn in the bigs and are just shuffling through the guys on the list. Or maybe they are responding to feedback from the QC coach.

Whatever the case, the summoning of Sutter doesn't make much sense on the face of it. The kid has 1 goal and 8 points in his second season on the farm. He's also a -4. His stats are, at best, mediocre. This cup-o-coffee for Sutter by-passes some other vets and stand-outs on the minor club (Greentree, Chucko, Van Der Gulik, Germyn), despite the fact they all have vastly superior output than sonny boy.

To be fair, I haven't looked too deeply in waivers eligibility, so maybe calling up guys like VDG, Germyn and even Greentree is problematic (I dont think so, but negotiating the needlessly complex waivers rules is something I dont have the stomach for this morning). Assuming waivers isn't a problem, then this is certainly a head-scratcher. And nepotism is so obvious it makes me want to look for another explanation. Although why Lundmark was sent back in the first place after garnering 3 assists in 4 games is a big enough question on it's own.

- The good news is, Boyd will move back up the depth chart with Sutter the younger in town. One thing that seemed crystal clear during the CHI game to me was that Boyd was head and shoulders better than both his 4th line team mates and competition. Word is he'll be skating with Langkow and Bertuzzi at ES.

- None of Primeau, Glencross or Prust are skating, so expect them to be out for awhile.

- The PP continues to look terrible. One thing I noticed last game was: Flames players are being isolated in the offensive way too easily during the man advantage. The puck support seems extremely nominal, to the degree that during board battles for puck retrieval, it was frequently one Flame vs. two Blackhawks, despite the fact Calgary had more players on the ice. Better support, especially behind the goal line, would help the PP out immensely I think.

- Like Iginla, Dion Phaneuf is having a fairly pedestrian season by his standards so far. He's taken a small step backwards in ES scoring and his GFON/60 rate is nearly a goal higher than it was last year (3.27 vs. 2.36).

Lots of time for those numbers to improve; we're only 33 games into the season and the guy is still just 23 years old, after all. Still, I think the question of over-use is a legit one at this point. Against CHI, for example, Phaneuf played the last minute or so of the 3rd period. He was then put back on for the first shift of OT, where he was subsequently beaten to the outside by an undeniably fresher Toews, leading to the GWG against. That's just plain old bad decision making by Keenan. The Flames aren't the Atlanta Thrashers - they have more than one capable blueliner. Give the kid a breather once in awhile.

- The guys over at Second City also noticed that Keenan was seemingly asleep at the switch during the Hawks match. He failed to do anything about the Iginla/Keith match-up, even though the only point Jarome got that night was the lone shift he had against someone else. Typically, a wily NHL coach notices things like that and tries to take advantage, especially with last change. Take a look at the shift charts and corsi links over there if you are so inclined.

- The Ducks are in town this evening, fresh off a loss to Vancouver last night. Anaheim is kind of a one line team now, although Getzlaf and Perry are no joke. In addition, a team boasting Neidermayer and Pronger on the back-end, plus one of the leagues best shut-down trios, can't ever be taken lightly.

Prediction - Flames make it SEVEN(!) wins against good teams tonight. Calgary 3, Anaheim 2. Perry and Pronger for the Ducks. Boyd, Iginla and Regehr for the Flames.