A PDO number is a team’s ES S% plus their ES SV%. The idea, and I know that this will make some people uptight, is that there’s a lack of sustainability in that number - if it’s high, it’s going to come down; if it’s low, it’s going to go back up.
"High" being above the mean (approx. 100) by a few ticks and "low" being below the mean by a few ticks. Over the long haul, things tend to correct themselves in the percentages area, as Tyler shows in his first table: big differences (+/- 3 either way) above or below 100 tend to regress or progress back towards the middle over time.
The big "over-achievers" thus far? VAN, BOS, NJ and maybe PIT And MTL. The big under-achievers? CGY, COL, BUF, LA, DET (!!), NYI AND TOR.
Now, individuals obviously have some effect on SV% and SH% to a degree. Luongo, Regehr and Lidstrom will likely have a positive influence on a club's SV%. On the offensive side, Jarome Iginla and Sidney Crosby have the power to improve a club's SH% somewhat. Naturally, bad players will do the opposite.
Still...everything tends to gravitate to the mean in the end:
Overall, the effect is really startling...I’ve summarized the differences between the best 20 teams and the worst 20 teams in terms of the percentages for the first quarter and then the final three quarters. While there’s still some differences in the final three quarters, they’re much, much smaller.
This is good news for Flames fans. Calgary has one of the lowest PDO numbers in the league at 97.9, owing in part to Kippers limp start no doubt. Over the course of the season, we can probably expect the Flames to creep closer to the 100 mark - which, especially if they can keep up the SF/SA ration of 1.09, should result in some wins.
I find a look at individual PDO numbers helps to illustrate the sustainability (or lack) of certain numbers. Here are the Flames results so far:
Only three players hover above 100: Robyn Regehr (100.7), Andre Roy (101.2) and Curtis Glencross (103.3). Of the three, only Glencross' number seems unsustainably high, although one would think that Roy would be the type of guy to post lackluster percentages both ways (and so, is in line for a fall himself). Also: the SV% behind Regehr is ridiculous right now (94.5%), so expect that to fall a bit. Reggie is good - real good - but that's pretty inhuman, especially considering the quality of the competition he faces.
Which guys can we tab for a bound upwards? Dion Phaneuf (96.7), Mark Giordano (97), Brandon Prust (91.4), Wayne Primeau (95.4), Eric Nystrom (94) and...yes...Sore thumb (94.5).
Of course, some guys will be congenitally below or above average when it comes to either SV% and SH%. Bert, for instance, probably isn't going to have a massive swing upwards simply because he's not very good - he makes poor decisions with the puck and floats around the rink all game. Still, the club can't possibly continue to shoot at 5% while he's on the ice all year - that's absurdly low, even if you suck as much as Bert.
For a starker illustration, check out Boston's numbers. The teams SV% is 94.5! The lowest on-ice SV% of any player is 88.9% - and that's some unknown schlub who played maybe one game. In addition, 12 Bruins have on-ice SH% above 10. Only 2 Flames can make that claim. Now, Boston has some nice players and is playing well, but...really? I mean, are they really so much better than the Flames that half their line-up can drive percentages better than Calgary's entire roster?
Eh...probably not.
PS - Player #99 in the Flames link is the combination of Iginla, Cammalleri and Lombardi. Their corsi number is underwhelming (+8) while their PDO number is 109. Take from that what you will.
