Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Jarome Iginla - still ho-hum

Rob Kerr and Dean Molberg were discussing Jarome Iginla on the radio yesterday; the topic precipitated by Kerr noting that Iginla is something like 9 points (8 goals) off his pace from last year.

Although the issue was eventually poo-poohed by the Fan crew, I think it's fairly legitimate to say that Iginla hasn't really been as Iginla-like as one would expect/hope. Kerr predicted that "someone" was going to write a "what's wrong with Jarome Iginla?" article in the near future and after the captain's lackluster effort last night, I decided to oblige.

First, the subjective stuff - by my eye, Iginla was mediocre bordering on detrimental against the Wild. He made some poor decisions in the shallow end of the offensive zone (one of them resulting in the Wild's lone goal) and was kept to the perimeter for most of the evening. He also completely failed to execute whenever he got the puck in a scoring area. I think he managed just one shot in 20+ minutes of ice (3 of it coming with the man advantage).

As you can see, the numbers from last night aren't too complimentary either: Iginla was battled to evens in terms of possession by a beat-up, road weary opponent. Not only that, his opposition for most of the evening was the Wild's "checking line" of Veilleux, Miettinen and Belanger: so it's not like Jarome was taking on the big boys. At best, Veilleux and company should be hoping to minimize the damage Iginla inflicts, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. They certainly shouldn't be outscoring him.

Of course, one bad game in isolation is hardly worthy of indictment. The problem is Jarome has been off and on like this all year. All his ES stats are middle of the road. Supporters will point to his 40 points in 36 games as proof that he's actually playing well, but that doesn't impress me in light of his ice-time. Only Ovechkin plays more at ES and only Malkin plays more on the PP.

The truth of the matter is, all of Jarome's rates are off. He's on pace for 275 shots on net so far, a full 63 less than he managed last year and his lowest per game shot pace since 03/04. He's nearly 1 point/hour below his previous PP scoring rate, even though the team has marginally improved with the man advantage (17.8% vs. 16.8%).

The team depth has improved below him, but Keenan is still giving Iginla plenty of chances to drive the bus, so it's not like the steps forward by Bourque, Moss, Boyd etc has eaten into Jarome's ice-time. In fact, the Flames success relative to last year has come thanks to that improved depth and in spite of Iginla's dip in output.

Going forward, an elite Iginla would actually move the Flames up a wrung or two in the Western Conference hierarchy I think, and make an all important 3rd place finish far more likely. The big guy still has plenty of time to get things going again (and I'm certainly not saying that he's been dreadful or anything), but the trends aren't anywhere near Hart worthy so far like they were last year.