Wednesday, April 29, 2009

I should leave it to the wheel spinning Monkey

I was going to do a rudimentary run through of my largely inaccurate first round predictions (en route to delivering what will be my inaccurate second round predictions), but a reader emailed me a much more thorough and interesting spreadsheet yesterday.



This is a "prediction scorecard" comparing various local media guys, including Dowbiggen, Kerr, myself, etc. As you can see, I didn't fare all that well. The only series I nailed was, appropriately enough, Flames/Hawks. My worst call was the CBJ/DET series, obviously, an error made because I was overly influenced by the Flames final games against those two teams I think: in the final match versus DET, the Flames cruised to a victory thanks to horrendous goaltending by Osgood. In the other, Calgary was fundamentally dominated by the Jackets and lost 4-0 (it could have been 8-0).

Anyways, on to the second round! Please don't use these picks to gamble...

WC

DET v ANA

The Red Wings overwhelmed the Blue Jackets and Osgood held up through the first three games. However, Hiller has been excellent this year and was one of the primary reasons the Ducks upset the Sharks. Clearly, ANA doesn't have the kind of depth that can compete with DET, but their first line is excellent and their top 4 defensemen are strong. All that said, I the Wings taught me a lesson about picking a much lower seed over them in the first round.

DET in 7.

VAN v CHI

Both clubs have impressed me thus far. The Blackhawks are a three line deep club and their top defensive pairing is top notch. On the other hand, Luongo has been out of his mind for a long period of time now, so the Canucks have an obvious edge in net. CHI won't be scoring 4 goals on 16 shots in this series. Also - the Sedins and Kesler are legit.

VAN in 6.

EC

BOS v CAR

I don't know if anyone in the East can stop the Bruins. They've had the blessing of the hockey gods this year, as well as the leading Vezina candidate in net, an excellent coach and several lines of dangerous forwards. The Hurricanes did well to get past the Devils and Ward is the real deal these days, but...Boston is just too strong.

BOS in 6.

WAS v PIT

This might be the series to watch in round two. Malkin/Crosby versus Ovechkin/Semin. Four of the leagues best ES forwards during the regular season going head to head. With Varlamov giving the Caps competent goaltending, they don't really have a glaring weakness anymore. I certainly like their forward depth more than the Pens, whose scoring list goes something like this: Malkin, Crosby .............................Kunitz, Guerin, Staal. That said, the Penguins have been a different (better) team under Bylsma. Should be a close one.

WAS in 7.

EDIT - Oddly, I'm doing well in my amateurs vs pros (The Score talking heads) pick 'em pool after round one. Leader Hockey Jackass has the scoreboard here (I sat tied for 2nd as of yesterday, although the Devils loss probably hurt me).