Sutter Kremlinology

This site has had a lot to say about Darryl Sutter, and I'm sure there is going to be a lot more to come, as is proper and expected, for a place specializing in the interests and fortunes of the Calgary Flames. Now, these same Flames have had 3 straight first round playoff exits and if everything goes perfectly with Sutter's offseason moves the Flames are set up to make a giant move... sideways. The point of this particular post, however, is not so much Darryl's display or lack of hockey acumen but more about his political ability he uses in going about his GM-erily tasks. So is the clock ticking on Darryl? Is his job at risk?

To answer that question boldly, I'll say that Darryl Sutter will be the GM of the Calgary Flames for as long as he wants to be - and I think the reason has been his keen judgment on how to consolidate his power within the Flames' organization.

Remember Darryl came to the Flames after getting the boot in San Jose, but it was also after his brother Brian had been canned by the Flames 3 years before. So, Darryl obviously wants and receives the GM job as well as the coaching job when he comes to the Flames. This solves the SJ problem: there's no GM to fire him! He undoubtedly received detail info from brother Brian about the inner workings of the Flames management/ownership and any obvious buttons that need to be pushed or levers to be pulled. The hockey industry is notorious for being small, familial in the best sense, but also a little incestuous, so it isn't surprising that there are a lot of decisions made with regards to who knows who. But even within a system like that Darryl is noticeable for his focus (obsession?) on loyalty. The Flames organization is filled with family, Sutter loyalists, and people that aspire to be Sutter loyalists. The result is that the organization defers to Darryl in a couple of ways, 1) the obvious one of having people in place that support Darryl and are predisposed to carry out his decision/directions. 2) By having all the spots filled with people loyal to him there aren't any perches or even any oxygen within the org. for anti-Sutter usurpers. I find it interesting that the Flames don't have an assitant GM or a 'capologist'. This concentration of power effectively means that Sutter cannot be fired in a 'coup' like move. Firstly, simply because of the Sutter 'mystique' and of being a member of Alberta's hockey royal family (and Calgary is the one place in the NHL, other than Edmonton, where this mystique is strongest and helps Darryl the most). Because there's no one in place that could effectively take over immediately (let the Keenan conspiracy theories begin; but I believe that the Flames would NEVER move to make Keenan GM. One word: Luongo) and ownership would have to be concerned about the reaction/morale of remaining Sutter 'guys'. So if there is any attempt at firing Sutter it'll have to be done by negotiating his departure, or moving him upstairs, so then it becomes less a 'firing' and more of a dynastic renewal, and there are plenty of Sutters (like Shark's teeth) in line to replace Darryl. And finally who wants to be the guy to have to give Darryl Sutter that news? Even if Darryl Sutter is your 'employee' he's more than a little intimidating. I bet he intimidates members of Calgary ownership. In short; Sutter's combination of Leonid Brezhnev, Fidel Castro, and Tony Soprano have wedged him into the GM seat pretty tight. But I hear you faithful readers saying, 'But Joe, isn't there some dramatic, cinematic way of describing your point?' Why yes, yes there is... dream sequence slowly begins.

Harp music: ascending and descending scales, focus becomes soft, then softer, till totally white

Harp music fades, Focus slowly sharpens to reveal Office Int. : The back of a solitary figure as he looks out of large office windows. Mid-morning bright (almost dazzling) sunshine streams into room. Blue sky can be seen right down to the snow covered horizon. A perfect Albertan winter morning.

BZZZZT

the intercom on the desk buzzes loudly but somehow seemingly 'asking' for permission to intrude upon the concentration of the lone occupant. He turns and strides purposefully from the windows to the desk, revealing to the audience that it is Darryl Sutter, GM of the Calgary Flames and presses on the intercom to reply:

DS: Yes, what is it Comrade Secretary?

Sec: Excuse me, Comrade General Manager, but Comrade President King is here to see you

DS: Send him in.

the camera moves to behind Sutter as it looks beyond him over his shoulder at his large, tastefully opulent, but tidy desk, around his darkly sumptuously mahogany paneled office toward the door. It quietly opens to reveal Ken King, president of the Flames enter and approach the desk, somewhat meekly holding and fidgeting with a Flames toque.

DS: Comrade, please come in and sit down.

King continues to approach the desk, but in doing so has to look into the bright sunshine coming from behind the silhouetted Sutter at his desk

KK: Ahh, but Comrade; (as he shades his eyes) there's no chair.

DS: Hmmm, is that so.

BZZZZT. (intercom interupts)

Sec: Excuse me, Comrade General Manager, but it is Comrade Vice-President of Secret P.. (nervous laugh) I mean, of course, Comrade Vice-President of Internal Security Sutter on the phone.

DS: Brian! How are you? How's the meeting going, wait a sec, let me put you on speaker.. (DS pushes button on intercom, Brian Sutter's voice fills the office)

BS: Darryl, you wouldn't believe it! Me and my boys barely arrived and took off our coats and rolled up our sleeves before the ownership was falling over themselves to agree to your demands, er I mean your suggestions going forward. Everybody here has decided to play ball!

DS: Thats great Brian, keep up the good work.

DS flicks off speakerphone, KK's eyes have widened upon hearing about the ownership and he now looks even more uncomfortable and pensive

DS: (gesturing to the windows and the beautiful view outside..) Isn't it beautiful Ken?

KK: A truly beautiful sight Comrade.

DS: Ken, are you a son of the Motherland?

KK: A son of the Motherwhat?

DS: A native of Alberta, Ken.

KK: Oh.. No Comrade I was born in Saskatchewan.

DS: Saskatchewan, ah yes, of course; EAST Alberta.

BZZZZT. (intercom interrupts again)

Sec: A thousand apologies Comrade General Manager, but Comrade Vice-President of Indoctri..(another nervous laugh, this one a little longer and little nervousier) I mean of course Comrade Vice-President of Player Development Sutter has left a message that he will be here in time for the meeting with Comrade Vice-President of Drafting and Acquistions Sutter.

DS: Thats great, tell Duane and Ron to come right up after they arrive.

KK: Uhmm, excuse me Comrade, but as Comrade President shouldn't I be invited to that meeting as well? (King is chewing the side of his lip, now as the toque in his hands is being almost teased out of shape)

DS: Ken, what I wanted to talk to you about, is I'm thinking of making some changes...

DS gets up from behind the desk as he speaks and walks toward the door gently spinning KK toward the door and letting his left hand drape over KK's shoulders

KK: Comrade General Manager, I'm sure the board will support me in my position (KK says this WITHOUT being sure of the support at all, and his voice noticeably rising in pitch and with a slight quaver)

DS: Oh, I'm not thinking of getting rid of you Comrade, no no, its more of a Brand change..

both the men continue to walk toward the door, by this time KK has figuratively and literally shrunk in size and stature made even more apparent with the obvious comparison to the figure of DS right beside KK and as DS talks he gestures with his right hand as if referring to a name on a theatre marquee...

DS: How does Comrade President Ken SUTTER sound?

For gamers out there

Greg Wyshnyski posted an interesting interview with EA Sports producer David Littman. Apparently EA is looking to go groundbreaking with their next NHL title by creating a MMORPG (massively multi-player online role-playing game) "league"...kinda like World of Warcraft:

Your goal is to get this character to "legend" status both online and offline. And you're going to get hockey cards on the way to show your status.

We're tracking these players with the performance tracker. Someone that has 100 goals and doesn't play defense will not be the best player in the world; the best player on the leader boards will be someone who plays a full, rounded game of hockey. He won't be someone who goes off-sides all the time. Because nobody wants to play with the guy who goes offsides all the time.

Since you have your own guild, you can just trade a guy.

...

And during the game, there's voice chat with the team. You asked before about pitfalls in playing the game: Not communicating is the biggest one. Saying "I'm open" or "at the point, at the point!" is important.

We're hoping that there's going to be a lot of forums set up, and teams creating Web sites for their guild.

You know, you can see everyone on the leader board; if you see a defenseman that has "A's" across the board, you can immediately talk to that person and invite them to your team. Tell him, "Hey, we need a defenseman and we're making a run for the Cup."

Im personally not a big gamer. I've never played "World of Warcraft" and I dont even have a next-gen console. That said, this all sounds incredibly fun and may force me to pick-up a PS3 when this title drops.

Between "NHL 09" and real hockey this winter I may end up severely neglecting my friends/family/lover(s)/personal hygiene. Good times ahead!

Musings of Interest: Dustin Boyd

While it might be fun to fantasize about Backlund making the bigs, the truth is Dustin Boyd will likely be the only Flames player next year playing under a two-way contract.

First, some facts about Dustin:

- He broke records in his native Manitoba as a 15 year-old Midget by scoring 50 goals and 107 points in 40 games.

- He blossomed at the end of his WHL career after being chosen by the Flames in the 3rd round. In 05/06, he scored 48 goals and 90 points in 64 games for Mosse Jaw. He was also a significant part of the gold-medal winning Canadian team at the World Junior Champioships that year.

- He scored 27 goals and 60 points in 66 games as a 20 year-old rookie in the AHL. He tied for the team lead in points that year with a much older Andrei Taratukhin.

- Dustin has only managed 9 goals and 17 points with limited ice-time in 61 NHL games.

Boyd is probably one the Flames most promising young players. He has a decent pedigree and excelled on a decidedly ordinary team with little offensive punch during his first pro season, despite his relative lack of size and experience.

After a forgettable NHL freshman season last year - where he often skated for a couple of minutes a night with Shlubs like Godard, Primeau and Nystrom - Boyd is poised to potentially move up the depth chart this coming year. Calgary's bottom 6 is littered with guys, but the top 6 forward depth is notably lacking. That's - potentially - where Boyd can slot in if the "ifs" about his potential are answered.

First, why I think he could do it:

His history as a scorer and some of his underlying numbers suggest there's some un-tapped offense waiting to be exploited. in 07/08, Boyd had the 3rd best goals/60 rate at ES (1.03) on the Flames behind Iginla and Huselius. Now, the obvious caveat here is small sample size, but I still find that kind of number encouraging given Boyd's surroundings 5-on-5. His overall rate of 1.76 ESP/60 was also higher than the likes of Nolan (1.57), Lombardi (1.50) and Moss (1.55). While he didn't play tough minutes, he was also saddled with some of the worst players on the team as linemates most of the time. His PPP/60 rate looks ugly (0!), but was attained with the help of a mere 44 seconds/game on what might have been the worst 2nd PP unit in the league. More ice-time with better players, particularly with the man-advantage where he won't have to struggle with defensive issues, should increase Boyd's production.

The obstacles:

The glut of centers is the first, most obvious problem. In order to make his way into the top 6 it's almost a guarantee that Boyd will have to become a winger. On one hand, that means less complicated responsibilities in his own end of the rink. On the other hand, he seemed to struggle with the conversion when he played wing last year. Course, that may have had more to do with being a rookie on a kids line that was fed to the wolves for about a 4 week period mid-season.

In addition, like most youngsters, Boyd tends to bleed shots/scoring chances/goals against. He had the worst GA/60 rate on the whole team by a fair margin last season and was typically a liability when it turned into panic time in the defensive zone.

The probably means Boyd will have to play with strong linemates against softer competition if he isn't going to be a throbbing sore spot south of the red-line. The question remains whether the Flames actually have that kind of position available going forward (they didn't last year, thus his relegation to the 4th line). The good news is: Im fairly confident Boyd would rapidly improve in this regard if afforded the opportunity and proper surroundings.

I think a decent comparable to keep in mind is the Blues David Perron. Perron was a 19 year-old rookie for St.Louis who picked up 13 goals and 27 points in 62 games last year. From what I saw, Murray played the youngster in a "scoring role" and thus put him into a position to succeed: soft competition (-0.04), good linemates (0.01), decent ice-time (12:43/night) with some generous opportunity on the PP for good measure (2:43 average). Perron responded with the 4th best scoring rate on the team (1.95 ESP/60) and was neutral in terms of +/-.

I think that would be the ideal situation for Boyd next season developmentally speaking and in terms of potential production. Murray sheltered his "2nd line" scoring unit and then fed guys like Mayers, McClement and Backes to the wolves. Keenan might be able to do the same next season with guys like Moss, Bourque and Conroy doing the heavier lifting, leaving Boyd, Lombardi/Langkow and *whoever* to take offensive zone draws against 3rd and 4th liners.

With a dearth of legit top 6 options, the Flames are going to need some aggressive bench management and a few guys to take more than a small step forward in order to remain competitive. As such, this could be an excellent opportunity for a guy like Boyd to stake his claim as a top 6 player and a big part of Calgary's future.

Bouwmeester signs for one more...

...let the Darryl Sutter slobbering commence.

By putting his name to a single year deal when most highly regarded RFA's are looking for the "big and long", Bouwmeester has all but declared his intentions to go on the free market next off-season. Some of Bouwmeester's stats, figures and facts:

- Big (6'4", 212 pounds)
- Young (25)
- First round draft pick (3rd overall, 2002)
- Already a veteran (389 GP, ice-time leader in Florida)
- Excellent skater.
- Plays in all situations.
- Born in Edmonton, AB
- Played Junior hockey for the Medicine Hat Tigers

How many Sutter hot-buttons is that? Like...all of them? We may be a year away from the Bouwmeester sweepstakes, but I bet Daz is already scheming a way to get Jay into Flames colors.

Long Division

Last season the NW division teams played each other 8 times for a total of 32 divisional games each. That is almost 40% of whole schedule. Let's look a little closer at those divisional results to see what separated the teams last year and maybe look for clues for the upcoming season.


Flames: 16-12-4 36pts. +5 ESGD. -8 STGD. 1-1 SO record.
Oilers : 13-16-3 29pts. -17ESGD. -4 STGD. 4-2 SO record.
Wild : 17-11-4 38pts. -4ESGD. +12STGD. 1-3 SO record.
'Lanche: 20-10-2 42pts. +14ESGD. -1STGD. 5-0 SO record.
Canucks: 14-13-5 33pts. +2ESGD. 0STGD. 0-5 SO record.


Where:Teams followed by divisional record and pts aquired; ESGD is even strength goal differential; STGD is special teams goal differential (powerplay goals for/against + shorthanded goals for/against); SO is shootout record. Empty net goals have been removed.

Hmm, please forgive the table formatting, I don't know how to make tables in Blogger. Anyway I think its clear enough to make the following observations: The Flames were a good ES team, whose Special Teams sucked, the Oilers were just a bad team Evens and ST, the Wild are amazingly efficient and with a v. good PP, the Avalanche are ES warriors and whose Shootout record was great, and the Canucks were basically meh both ES and ST but their SO record of 0-5 killed them within the division. I have to say I was surprised at Colorado's ES dominance within the division, I had thought of them more as a PP team. Calgary is just getting killed when killing penalties (I predict that this will become my 'cowbell'), easily the worst record in the division, and the biggest difference between the Wild (division winners) and the Flames.

Looking forward to 08-09 season when there will be 8 less divisional games, I think Colorado is going to lament not being able to beat up on the NW and their Shootout Record will probably start to even out or worse considering their new goalie rotation. Flames struggled on ST against the whole league last season so it probably doesn't mean a ton for the Flames. Vancouver was probably unlucky they didn't do a little better and looking at the shootout record it looks like the NW is starting to figure out Luongo a bit, Vancouver wasn't a terrible ES team last year, more Eastern Conference games might help the Canucks. The Wild will continue to button it down, but losing Rolston and Demitra, I think will hurt their PP, where they were dominant, if they have to rely on ES play, their record is going to start to approach Vancouver's. The Oilers were very bad early last year and came on later in the year, especially in the late season divisional games. They should probably be a better PP team this year, but at ES they still look a mess.

Considering Mikael Backlund

Interesting little column in the Herald recently titled "Swede Temptation". It profiles 19 year-old first rounder Mikael Backlund and suggests he could be fighting for a place on the team this season.

Seems ridiculous on it's face: Calgary already has 15 NHL forwards on the roster, nearly half of which are natural centers (Langkow, Lombardi, Boyd, Primeau, Conroy, Cammalleri). At least 3 of those guys will be slotted into the top 6 come October.

It's hard not to fantasize about the possibilities, however. We've seen some teenagers make the leap in the last few seasons and deliver high value performances for the clubs that took the risk (Kane, Toews, Backstrom, Kopitar and Gagner spring to mind).

Questions:

1.) Is Backlund ready for prime time?

Hard to say. He was considered the 2nd best European skater in his draft year and played against men last season in the Swedish Elite League (although his stats aren't really that impressive). To my eye, Backlund was a stand-out at the World Junior Championships last year against some pretty stiff competition and he's also been getting rave reviews from those attending the prospect camp this July.

2.) Will it ruin his development?

One of the risks of promoting teens right into the big leagues is spoiling them before they're ripe. See: Gilbert Brule. Backlund is Calgary's best offensive prospect by a significant degree, probably the only kid with the pedigree to become a better than average point producer in the NHL. Risking that development may not be worth the potential benefits, since the Flames probably won't be winning anything this year anyways.

On the other hand, elite players tend to make the leap to the NHL sooner rather than later anyways - in fact, the best guys seem to benefit from the increased level of competition. If Backlund were to make the team and keep his head above water, the Flames would pretty much know they have a future top 3 player on their hands. The problem being, of course, it's hard to know if you have a Brule or a Kane until he actually play against the big boys.

3.) Where would he land on the depth chart?

Like Gagner and Kane, Backlund may be skilled enough to contribute in the right circumstances (good linemates, on the PP), but would be a bit of a liability at ES at first. Unfortunately, the Flames top 6 is currently chocked full of those types of guys (Lombo, Bertuzzi, Cammalleri, Boyd?). If Mikael made the team this year, he'd probably have to play with Iginla for it to make any sense at all: otherwise he'd just be another guy getting scored on too much on the 2nd line.

Bertuzzi - Backlund - Iginla
Cammalleri - Langkow - Lombardi?

Ugh. There's way too many centers on this team. Can either of those lines take on tough competition?

The addition of Backlund would probably push the likes of Wayne Primeau off this team. That's good. On the hand, it would mean Lombardi would either have to go back to being a 3rd line center, convert to wing, or get dealt away. That's bad (to varying degrees - although some would argue that Lombardi belongs in the 3rd-line center type of role anyways).

How about this?:

Bert - Back - Iggy
Cammalleri - Langkow - Moss
Bourque - Lombardi - Conroy
Glencross - Primeau - Nystrom

(Roy, Nilson, Prust)

Perosnally...I just dont see it. Backlund making the leap would mean Sutter would have to get rid of yet another player from this already bloated roster (thank god we have Roy and Prust!). Not to mention the ruination risk, the existing glut of centers and the fact the Flames are cap-strapped. Beyond the normal obstacles a teenager trying to make the NHL faces, the Flames organization has stacked numerous other impediments in Backlund's path for the coming season. Keep in mind, at 19, Backlund is unavailable to play in the AHL this year: meaning he has to make the big squad to stick around, otherwise it's back to the SEL for the season. And chances are that's exactly what's going to happen unless he absolutely blows the pants off everyone in training camp.

WI has the goods

Anyone with any sort of interest in the Flames prospect camp should be visiting hit the post this week. Frequent commenter and fanatic Flames fan Walk Invisible has been attending the work-outs and providing a wealth of first hand information. From her most recent post, which includes stuff from a question and answer period with Tod Button:


...as of the current off-season, the flames employ six full time & three part time scouts in north america, which is (according to button) the most of any NHL team. the full-timers are based in medecine hat, kelowna, eastern ontario, western ontario, quebec, and two northeastern american cities that i can't recall.

...

someone queried button on the flames' penchant for drafting WHL guys, which i concede is an excellent question. button pansied around that one a bit, swearing that the flames always draft the "best available hockey player" but did admit that if it came down to a coin toss, they do prefer the western canadian guys.

Take a look.

Five Hole Fanatics signs UFA

Name's Joe, Cynical Joe. Cynicism is my business and business is good. Uhmm.. not really, actually I'm not nearly cynical enough. Long time listener and first time contributor, MetroGnome kindly invited me to participate in FHF and I figure I've got the two things every Flame blogger needs: 1) I hate the Oilers and 2) access to the intraweb thingy. You've probably seen some of my 'work' in the comments section on FHF and BoA and other hockey blogs, but I warn you, you'll be sadly disappointed if you're looking for internal logic, agreement of verb tense, etc. My motto is Ready, Fire, Aim. One of my singular joys in life is to be contrarian so its possible that I don't even really believe some of the things I write (should a blogger confess that?) Feel free to call me on that if you find the cognitive dissonance becoming too much. I'll try not to smash up MG's nice little operation around here, and of course anything objectionable, disagreeable or stoopid is of course my fault and not the responsiblity of MG.

Fisking the sound bites

I dont know why Im doing this. Sutter has made it quite clear the last few years that he has no compunction against feeding the local media bromides, half-truths and outright falsehoods whenever it suits his purpose. At this point just about every Sutter quote that appears over the airwaves or in the paper should be taken with a giant pinch of salt, if not dismissed outright.

That said, Im going to pick apart his latest sound bites from this article anyways.

"Look at our team now," Sutter said Tuesday afternoon at the Pengrowth Saddledome. "We've got 15 or 16 forwards, eight or nine defencemen, who are legitimate NHL players. They're not all going to play here. So it's a different mindset . . . there are veterans who are going to have to make our team."

Seems straight forward, but it's pretty much nonsense upon reflection. If Sutter doesn't know right now which vets are useful players and which aren't, a few extra games in the pre-season aren't going to change anything. Wanna know a bad way to evaluate a veteran NHLer's potential performance? WATCH HIM DURING THE PRE-SEASON. Sutter has had an entire year (or more) to observe and evaluate the players he's alluding to here. Three or four exhibition games against half-hearted, pseudo-competition is just noise in terms of data quality.

I guess there's always the assertion that "competition for jobs will drive players to work harder and play better", but, really how much power does that have? Will that make Rhett Warrener less injured? A better skater? Will Wayne Primeau somehow be able to check more than a stationary coat-rack all of sudden because he's duelling with Brandon Prust and Andre Roy at the bottom of the roster?

No. No, no and no. At this stage of their careers, guys are what they are. Any gains from pitting teammate against teammate for a limited number of roster spots would be, at the very best, marginal and fleeting.

"What gets overlooked is we've been a really good team, but perhaps some of our more skilled players didn't compete very hard," said Sutter. "You can't win in the playoffs like that. So we've made adjustments in that area, without giving up any offence."

Boy oh boy...lots of issues here.

Number one - I can only hope that Sutter doesn't actually believe this is the reason the Flames have been a middling squad the last few years. If he honestly thinks that Kristian Huselius and Alex Tanguay were part(s) of the problem, well then...I don't know what to say.

Number two - the Flames haven't been "a really good team" for at least two seasons. At best they've been "slightly above average". And I think that's being generous.

Number three - Are Cammalleri and Bertuzzi really going to compete that much "harder" than Huselius and Tanguay? Think about it this way. If you swap the first two players with the latter two, would the Flames have been better or worse last season? Would they have done better in (or have made) the play-offs?

"It might be a different type of an offence . . . there were some elements missing the last couple years. One was clearly someone standing in front of the net -- Bertuzzi is clearly that. We wanted a better power play -- Cammalleri is clearly a better power-play guy."

Sigh. Outside of it's top-heaviness, The Flames offense has actually been pretty good from 06/07 till now. And while I think a body in front of the net can be beneficial (see: Thomas Holmstrom) it's hardly an element that's necessary to be successful. In short, I wouldn't say it was "missing" and further I doubt that Bertuzzi is the answer even if it were (feel free to chime in here Sleek).

As for the Cammalleri comment...does he mean better on the PP than Tanguay? Because that's true. Better than Huselius? Not true.

"For our team to go from being a top-third-of-the-league team to . . . higher than that, we have to improve our goals against," said Sutter. "I'm used to having a very good goals against and that's the coach's responsibility this year -- to make sure that this group that we've assembled (does that)."

Groovy. Except the Flames weren't in the top 3rd of the league. Last year, Calgary ranked 14th out of 30 teams. Meaning they were - just barely - a "top-half-of-the-league" team. So the Flames will have to improve their GA just to get into the top 3rd.

Sutter about signing heavyweight LW Andre Roy: "The player we'd had in that position the last couple years (RW Eric Godard) had probably maxed out."

Maxed out. I honestly don't know what this means. Did Sutter actually think Godard, with 4 minutes a night, was going to become a more capable hockey player in Flames silks? Hell, would Godard have gotten better with 20 minutes a night (answer: no)?

Again, who knows how much Sutter actually endorses any of the claims he peddles here. He could very well be shoveling it with a pitchfork and snickering about his duplicity behind closed doors. Taken at face value and in combination with his off-season activities doesn't make me feel very good about the coming season, though.

The KC DB roster

Since others are initiating blog-o-sphere "fun summer activities!", I figured it was time for me to get in on the action.

Scenario:

Kansas City has finally been granted it's expansion squad. The quirky ownership group of Charles Wang, Oren Koules and Boots Del Baggio decide to go an unorthodox route to hire a General Manger by holding a "GM raffle". The raffle is open to all fans, pundits and amateur know-it-alls. The entrants names will be put into a giant purple drum and the winner will be chosen randomly by a blind-folded Mike Milbury.

For the hell of it, you decide to send in an entry. Why not? Surely almost anyone could do better than, say, the current Islanders or Maple Leafs rosters, right?

Anyways, the day comes and, of course, Mad Mike pulls your name from the big purple drum. During your entry meetings, the ownership group confides that they will be abandoning their previous "total interference" management style and will be giving you full reign over the club. In fact, they encourage you to be completely idiosyncratic and unorthodox in your team building.

With that in mind and with a basic knowledge of in-group/out-group dynamics, you decide the best way to go about creating an expansion roster is to collect the most hate-able and reviled players available. Being despised by the rest of the league might galvanize the fan-base and lead to a cohesive dressing room. On that basis you target every jerk you can find.

KC-DB fantasy draft rules:

- Draft a 23 man roster of the guys you love to hate.

- Current players only - an historical roster of this type would be a daunting task.

- Work with current salaries and the established salary cap of 56.7M.

So, without further ado, I present to you my Kansas City D-bags!**:

Forwards - (L - C - R)

Steve Ott (1.425) - Alexei Yashin (4) - Todd Bertuzzi (1.95)
Matt Cooke (1.2) - Mike Ribeiro (5) - Cory Perry (5.325)
Daniel Carcillo (.8) - Sean Avery (4) - Jordin Tootoo (.975)
Alex Burrows (.483) - Laperriere (1.15) - Derek Boogaard (.950)

Jarko Ruutu (1.3)

Total - 28.558

A fine mix of floppers, whiners, pests, turtlers, scrappers, cheap-shot artists, loud-mouths, selfish jerks and the generally reprehensible. Notice how well the Vancouver Canucks are represented (ex and current). I fudged Yashin's salary a bit, but I think it's realistic.

Defense -

Chris Pronger (6.25) - Dion Phaneuf (6.5)
Darien Hatcher (3.5) - Ole Kristian Tollefsen (.675)
Shane O'Brien (1) - Boris Valabik (.850)

Doug Murray (.550)

Total - 19.325

This was a tough one, because I had to exclude some personal un-favoritres of mine due to budget restraints *cough* Jovo *cough*.

I think we can all agree that the combination of Captain Elbows and Dion Phaneuf, while pricey, would be very effective at both playing and being loathed. Darien Hatcher has been relatively well behaved the last few years, but I still really dislike that behemoth.

O'Brien, Tollefsen and Murray are all huge players willing to mash smaller forwards into the boards and get into a scrap or two. O'Brien, in particular, managed 6 majors and 4 misconducts (as well as 42 minors) last year alone.

Then there's Boris Valabik. For those unaware, Valabik is a 6'7", 240 pound Atlanta Thrasher prospect. He garnered 42 PIM in just 7 games last year and was a 200+ PIM getter in his Junior days. I dont think he'll be very popular outside of Atlanta (perhaps not even inside Atlanta for that matter).

Goalies:

Ray Emery (3)
Andrew Raycroft (.8)

Total - 3.8

Total Cap-hit: 51.683

The goalies was a tough one. A lot of the really abhorrent guys are retired (Hextall, Smith, Roy, Hasek?). I picked Emery because it takes a certain kind of person to go from Stanley Cup finalist to league pariah in a single season. As for Raycroft...well...I just like to pick on him.

So there you have it! Feel free to add your own D-bag roster in the comments or elsewhere.

(**talk about great fodder for a logo contest.)

Another could have been

Dennis Wideman was re-signed by the Boston Bruins today. Four years, $15.75M. Slightly less than Adrian Aucoin's 4M/year figure. Seems to put a shine on Adrians contract, doesn't it? I mean who is Dennis Wideman...right?

He's a 25 year-old defenseman who averaged 25 minutes/night for the Bruins last year, behind only Zdeno Chara. He spent nearly 3 minutes a game on the PK and almost 4 minutes on the PP. He managed 13 goals and 36 points for his offensively challenged club.

In terms of advanced stats, Wideman faced the 2nd toughest competition of all the blueliners, again just behind the big man. He was in the black in terms of CORSI and +/- measures and he scored a healthy if unspectacular 3.90 PPP/60 with the man advantage. Keep in mind this was just Wideman's 3rd full season in the league.

This is an example of a decent gamble for $4M. Wideman is on the right side of 30, has room to develop and he put up solid numbers with big minutes against decent competition last year.

This signing is also pertinent to Flames fans because Wideman had a walk-on try-out with Calgary a few years ago. Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano and Dennis Wideman were all invited to training camp as free agents. Regehr and Giordano ended up getting the only contract offers.

Sigh.

Flames rookie camp commences

No I wasn't there on day one to watch the goalie drills. But I know (of) a couple people that were:

Walk Invisible shares her impressions of the skaters and stopppers. She notes Daniel Ryder looked fresh and eager while Backlund was less impressive. Kris Chucko looked like Kris Chucko. Matt Keetley looked like the best tender for the second straight year apparently as well.

Scott Cruickshank managed to talk to the enigmatic Ryder after the session where the former Junior star divulged why he skipped out on the organization last year -

"I just needed some time away from hockey — I still wasn't ready for a full season. That was my decision — I'm glad I did it. Two long seasons in a row, two short summers. It was just hockey every day. I wasn't ready for a full season. I feel ready for a full season now.(The Flames) let me take the time — what I needed — and be ready for next year. They were great with it. They helped me a lot. It's good to have people like that around."

He's back because "it was too good an opportunity to pass up. So I'm just going to go with it and see what happens. It's going good so far."

That actually makes some sense. In his final two seasons in Junior, Ryder played in 122 regular season games and 39 play-off games (thanks to back-to-back Memorial cup appearances). That's a ton of hockey.

I've always liked Ryder as a prospect and am glad to have him back in the fold. It'll be interesting to see how he progresses from this point on. Im sure both of the links above will post on-going first hand accounts throughout rookie camp, so check them out if you're interested.

Roy a Flame - Updated

And I don't mean the arrogant, retired goaltender.

According to the Flames website, the disgraced Tampa Bay enforcer is now a Calgary Flame.

If this it true, I have to say Im dismayed and annoyed by this move. Roy is as useless a player as Godard and probably a worse enforcer. He was suspended by the Lightning last year after an incident involving the Philadelphia Flyers, where he lost a fight to Riley Cote and then proceeded to lose his mind on the bench.

This addition does nothing for the Calgary Flames (besides make them even more generally hate-able I suppose). Actually, it makes them worse.

My esteem for Calgary's off-season is surely and gradually being eroded. Blech!

EDIT - NHL.com says he's a Flame too.

EDIT II - Inside the Flames declares it official and notes the contract to be a one-year, 550k deal (meaning one-way I guess).

Lefebvre notes that this is "Mark Smith all over again" in that the Smith signing was leaked prior to the official announcement thanks to an anonymous roster update by the NHL. I would like to extend that comparison in saying that, like Smith, Roy is a needless addition to an already full line-up.

Questions now that this is for real:

1.) What does this do to Brandon Prust, who also has a one-way contract? I mean, the Flames now have 15 forwards signed for next season. Only Dustin Boyd is on a two-way contract and there's little chance of him spending time in the minors (especially if the org doesn't want to start receiving letter bombs from me). Marcus Nilsson might still go away, but that still leaves Calgary carrying 14 forwards (and 8 defensemen!). Not to mention the several million the club is over the cap. Either there's some kind of deal to get rid of some of these guys in the works...or the QC Flames are going to have an expensive roster next season.

2.) Sutter stated explicitly that the Flames "had no room on the roster for a 4 minute/night player" on the radio just 3 weeks ago. Course, I believed him, partially because it was so god-damned kick-you-in-the-crotch obviously true that is was hard not to take his word for it. Now I have to assume that Sutter either doesn't really mean anything that he says to the press (very possible) or that he's a slave to his whims.

3.) WTF is the point of this game of musical chairs GMs keep playing with goons? I mean, for godsake, if goons were worth a damn, you'd think a club might actually hold onto one for longer than a season or two. In Sutter's case, why the hell wouldn't he just sign Godard to a 3 year deal if he feels it's so necessary to have a pugilist on the roster all the time? For that matter, why didn't he sign Simon long-term? Or Oliwa? Why didn't he sign Roy beyond this season? Why keep swapping in a new meathead every off-season or two? Doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

Final Update - Mirtle links me and adds some words on the Roy signing. He also links to one of his previous posts outlining the uselessness of enforcers, which saves me from having to write something in the same vein. Some of the worthwhile bits:

The average enforcer in this study has played 16.5 games at 5.45 minutes per game for a total of about 90 minutes of ice time this season. In that time, against the worst opposition in the league, their teams have scored an average of 1.56 goals, allowed 2.66, and been out shot 38-30.

At best, they're not a liability. At worst, they cripple their team, allowing somewhere in the neighbourhood of two goals per 60 minutes more than the rest of their team while generating almost zero offence or shots on goal.

If I'm a coach or GM, isn't there a better option at the bottom of the roster?

Yes.....YES!

You knew there was going to be some cheekiness when CBC opened up the opportunity to write the new HNIC theme-song to the public.

The above entry by Logan Aube has been making the rounds - because it's just so wonderfully absurd. Those who "appreciate" experimental stuff like Autechre, Squarepusher (music), Salad Fingers and Rejected Cartoons (animation) might dig this. Others will flee in confusion and disgust with their eyes and ears bleeding.

Does this have a chance of actually becoming the HNIC anthem? No. Do I love it because it's incredibly awesome? Yes...YES.

H/T Barry Melrose Rocks.

My references:

Rejected cartoons



Salad Fingers (warning - very, very odd and disturbing)



Autechres Grantz Graf



Squarepushers The Exploding Psychology

Flames 08/09 Schedule

The NHL regular season sched was released recently. The Flames will be starting the season with a home-at-home series against the Canucks starting October 9th in Vancouver (that should be two easy wins). Other notables:

- The New Years Eve Classic will be played in Calgary against the Oilers.

- Two eastern swings including the likes of New York (Rags), Montreal, Toronto and Pittsburgh.

- The season ends with the Battle of Alberta, April 10th.

I haven't looked very closely yet, so Im not sure about brutal road trips or number of back-to-backs. Feel free to take a look yourself.

More Cowbell

So Inside the Flames is saying Calgary has signed...get this...

Jamie Lundmark. Again.

No contract details, but it's a curious move considering his failure to do anything useful last go-round, the fact that the Flames already have 14 forwards and the fact that the team is already around 3M over the cap. Not to mention the plethora of centers already choking the organization.

Although, to be fair, it is a two-way deal. And that probably means Lundmark is going to be veteran fodder for the farm and an emergency injury call-up for the parent squad. But still...weird.

Oh Sutter! You so crazy!

It's (kinda) official...

...the Flames have the heaviest blueline in the league, cap-wise.**

24.250M. That number includes Warrener and Eriksson, who continue to hang around, but not Mark Giordano, since his contract details are still shrouded in mystery.

Right now, Calgary sits about 1.3M above than 2nd place Anaheim (who boast Pronger, Neidermayer, Schneider and Beauchemin in their top 4), approximately 2M more than Detroit (Lidstrom, Kronvall, Stuart and Rafalski) and almost 8M more than the league average (16.632M). Subtracting both Warrener and Eriksson (2.35M+1.5M) and adding Giordano (1M?) would drop the Flames into 4th place (21.4M) assuming the Ducks keep Schneider (they won't).

There's no getting around it folks - that's poor value for the back-end. The Flames should have the best defense corps in the league at that price and here we are agonizing over who amongst the incumbents could possibly fill the sizable hole in the top 4. This is a big part of the reason it looks like the Flames will be heading into the season with a 2nd line of: ? - Lombardi - Bertuzzi

Ugh. At least we can still kinda laugh at TOR (21.365M - McCabe, Kaberle, Kubina, Finger).

**(Just want to express my love and gratitude for the sortable cap stats Soundwave keeps at nhlnumbers).

Submitted for discussion here.

Hey! Actual news!

Except none of it is very exciting. Sorry.

First, the Flames prospect camp is coming up:

Monday, July 21

Goalies 1:30 p.m.

Tuesday, July 22

Group A 9:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.
Group B 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.
Goalies 8:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

Wednesday, July 23

Group B 9:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.
Group A 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.
Goalies 8:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

Thursday, July 24

Group A 9:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.
Group B 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.
Goalies 8:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

Friday, July 25

Group B 9:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.
Group A 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.
Goalies 8:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

Saturday, July 26

Group A 9:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.
Group B 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.
Goalies 8:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

All on-ice sessions are open to the public. Below is a copy of the tentative development camp schedule. Times are subject to change without notice.

Notables attending:

Daniel Ryder, Mikael Backlund, John Negrin, Greg Nemisz, Kyle Greentree and Leland Irving.

The Flames also released their pre-season sched recently. Looks like the Panthers will be making their way here again (not sure why that is). Other foes include the Coyotes the Canucks and the scummy Stabmonton grease stains.

I usually try to make it to as many pre-season games as possible, mainly because it's often the best way to see some of the kids up-close against semi-decent competition. As for the prospects camp...meh. Watching guys do drills is pretty bloody mind-numbing and doesn't really tell you much about a player.

Finally, I've heard rumblings of a little Calgary vs. Edmonton vs. Vancouver rookie tourny to happen this summer. I'll update when I get more info, but according to the link, expect it to happen in September. This is something that makes so much sense, it's a wonder it hasn't happened before now. Hopefully it's attend-able.

Projecting the back-end

We've already fiddled with the forward combinations so I guess its time to look at the blueline. Calgary currently has 8 defenders signed, although chances are at least one of Warrener or Eriksson won't be around in October (preferably both in my mind).

Last year the common duos were -

Regehr - Sarich
Phaneuf - Eriksson/Vandermeer
Aucoin - Hale

Warrener

Aucoin began the season in the top 4 at ES, spending most of his time with Phaneuf, before it became clear that role was a little beyond him. Of course, Anders Eriksson wasn't capable of it either, creating a bit of an obvious hole filled by an unsatisfying revolving door of lackluster partners for the Norris candidate.

Unless something major happens, the Flames will be facing a similar issue this season. While pretty much anyone outside of Cory Cross would represent a leap up from Bubba, none of the remaining candidates represent more than a marginal improvement. I say that without knowing the degree to which Mark Giordano developed overseas last year, of course. I've heard he was a top pairing defender for his club with Danny Markov and his selection to Team Canada in the World Championships this spring was a good sign. However, without really knowing who he played against or how he played (and the degree to which that will translate to the NHL), it's difficult to confidently and rationally project him in a top role 4 next year.

Here's what we got:

Regehr - Sarich
Phaneuf - Vandermeer (?)
Aucoin - Giordano

Warrener (?), Eriksson (?), Pardy (?)

Here's what I'd like to see:

1.) Regehr - Phaneuf.

Im going to assume for now that Jarome Iginla goes power v. power next year. If so, one would also assume that he'll mostly play with the shut-down pairing (Reggie/Sarich). However, Keenan made a habit of playing Phaneuf behind Jarome previously, likely in an effort to maximize ES scoring.

I therefore think it's possible that Dion is paired with Regehr and they play the toughest competition with Iggy at ES. This would also place Phaneuf in very good surroundings (ie; highly capable linemates) so he could take some steps forward in terms of playing against quality competition. This is the first year of Dion's new deal (6.5M), so Phaneuf has to start delivering more than just big hits and PP scoring. He has to start taking on the big boys if the team is going to garner value from that contract.

2.) Sarich - ?

That leaves Cory Sarich anchoring the 2nd pairing with the big question mark. Who's it gonna be? Probably 2.3M Jim Vandermeer to start the season I'd imagine. If so, that's not a 2nd pairing that overly impresses me. Then again, while offensively inept, it'll probably be better defensively than the chaos duo of Phaneuf/Eriksson last year. However, if Vandermeer falters in the manner he did towards the end of the season and the play-offs (or if Gio excels beyond expectations) I can see him being dropped into the 3rd pairing.

3.) That leaves Aucoin and Giordano for the final pairing. Both will be getting PP time, neither will be killing many penalties and they should be capable of handling the nobodies.

I'm also interested to see how the PP assignments shape up. Last season, Calgary had a decent first PP unit (Langkow-Iginla-Huselius, Phaneuf-Aucoin) and a laughably bad second unit (Conroy-Nolan-Tanguay, Eriksson-Regehr). The latter was terrible partially due to the ho-hum forwards and partially due to the fumbling back-end.

Robyn Regehr is an elite defenseman in many ways. Most of them start - and stop - at his own blueline. In the offensive end, his painfully slow wind-up is easy to block or disrupt while the shots that do get through are often too high or well wide anyways. Then there was Anders Eriksson, a man with the uncanny ability to allow almost any puck that comes near him to escape the offensive zone. Certainly one of the more consistent and galling features of his boobery.

The Flames have actually added two new blueline PP options this off-season: Mark Giordano and Mike Cammalleri. I think this ups the probability that the 2nd PP team won't totally suck ass next year, given that both units might actually have someone worth a damn (offensively speaking) running things at the blueline. Does Cammalleri get time with Phaneuf on the first unit or is he better reserved as the one-timer option on unit 2 with Giordano?

Questions abound!

More anxious mutterings - Where for art thou Adam Oates?

In 05/06, the Calgary Flames ranked 27th in the league in terms of GF with 216. They had the 2nd fewest amount of goals at ES with 108. Kristian Huselius was acquired in December of that year and he had some effect - he scored at a 60 point pace in Flames silks and his team best PP efficacy helped push the Calgary powerplay to 12th in the league by seasons end.

The following summer, Sutter addressed the Flames scoring concerns by dealing Jordon Leopold for Alex Tanguay.

I think it's no coincidence that the club hasn't had any major issues scoring goals since those two acquisitions (besides a curious off PP last season). In 06/07, the Flames ranked 7th in the league in total GF (255) and were in the top 10 in terms of ES scoring (153 - tied with the Detroit Red Wings). Last season, with Tanguay playing a checkers role, Calgary's scoring dipped a bit to 14th in the league (226 GF total). Even with that, the Flames ES prowess was still far superior as compared to the 05/06 benchmark (145 vs 108).

Tanguay and Huselius brought a unique sub-set of skills which had a direct and obvious effect on the clubs potency: excellent on-ice vision and an ability to make pin-point passes in traffic. In short, puck distribution. Tanguay did it better at ES, while Huselius excelled on the PP. Check out the assist rate/type for each player at behindthenet:

First ES production -

(click to enlarge)

Tanguay was the best on the team in terms of 1st assists at 5on5. Huselius was down around 5th (although 2nd behind Iginla in terms of goals/hour, incidentally).

PP production -

(click to enlarge)

There's Juice and Tangs (ha!) right near the top of the assist pile. Keep in mind that both guys had their worst years as Flames in terms of PP efficacy. Tanguay was number one the club last year in both ES and PP first assists, while Huselius ruled the roost in terms of total (first and second helpers) PP assist rates.

I guess my point in all this is that puck distribution is a very vital skill in offensive production. Several of the best offensive players in the game historically (Gretzky) and currently (Thornton, Crosby) were and are primarily assist-men. Their ability to consistently control and move the puck to high percentage scoring areas is key to manufacturing scoring chances (and, thereby, GF). And the Flames have jettisoned the two best players on the team at puck distribution and - with all apologies to Cammalleri and Bertuzzi - haven't replaced them.

During the off-season it's fairly common for fans to set-up hypothetical depth charts and line combinations with the objective of forecasting goal-production for each player based on a couple of factors (line mates, previous performance, wishful thinking, etc.). Example for the coming year:

Bertuzzi (20) - Langow (30) - Iginla (45)
Cammalleri (30) - Lombardi (20) - Boyd (15)

It's a facile exercise but the results seem reasonable, right? That's 160 goals total - more than the entire team scored at ES in 05/06. If the top two lines can manage those numbers, no need to worry, right?

These plug 'n play number forecasts are problematic because the assumptions are overly simplistic. Each player could probably be expected to get those totals in the right environment. The Flames offensive environment has changed drastically this summer due to the expulsion of the clubs best two passing forwards (and best PP player and 2nd best ES player etc). Keep in mind that Jarome Iginla managed just 67 points (33 as ES) in 05/06. His totals rocketed up to 94 (60 ES) and 98 (65 ES) once he started consistently playing with Tanguay and/or Huselius. In short, there's more Hull than Gretzky about this line-up now.

This is all my round-about way of expressing a new, nagging concern: who gets Iginla (or Cammalleri, or...) the puck next year?

Grading the off-season

I'd like this to be something of an open thread so everyone can share their impressions of the Flames activities this summer. I'll get things started, please add your own in the comments if you're so inclined.

- Alex Tanguay for 25th pick. Thumbs down.

Even given the restraints of the situation (Tanguay unhappy, NTC, need for cap-space) I still don't like the Tanguay deal. In the end, the Flames gave up an elite ES player (whose contract suddenly looks pretty damn good) for a late first round pick. It's going to be tough to replace his contributions.

- Mike Cammalleri for 17th pick. Thumbs up.

Cammalleri is a 26 year-old center/winger who has already scored 30 goals and 80 points in this league. He's already a significant threat on the PP and still has room to grow to his ceiling. At 3.35M, his should be one of the better value contracts on the team.

- Rene Bourque for a second round pick. Thumbs up.

Even before the deletions of Tanguay and Huselius the Flames were thin on the wings. Bourque is a low-cost acquisition who is a proven NHL player. He fills out the organizational depth, has room to improve and is fairly inexpensive (1.3M).

- Tim Ramholt for Kyle Greentree. Thumbs up.

I'd already given up on Ramholt as a prospect, so I see this a potential "something for nothing" deal. After watching him in two straight preseasons and looking at his AHL numbers, it was pretty clear that the Swiss Miss had stalled in his development and had been passed by a couple of younger guys in the Flames system.

On the other hand, Greentree is a big, scoring winger who managed 24 goals in his first professional season last year in the AHL. His play even warranted a couple of games in the big league with the Flyers. He'll be a welcome addition to the organizations prospect cupboard in general.

- UFA signing - Curtis Glencross. Thumbs up.

GlenX. Glengarry Glencross. Flames killer. Whatever you want to call him, Glencross is a clear upgrade over many of the guys the Flames had skating in the bottom 6 last year, even if you take his nice little run in Edmonton as a bit of a fluke. He's as fast as Lombardi, aggressive and has the potential to actually score every so often. Best part is, he's cheaper than Primeau.

- UFA signing - Daymond Langkow. Thumbs up.

Langkow has been the model of consistency since becoming a Flame (and for most of his career). Whether for 4.5M per or 5M per, he should provide value for his contract, at least through years one and two. The length of the deal may prove problematic, but that remains to be seen.

- UFA signing - Todd Bertuzzi. Thumbs down.

Even as a hockey move, the Bert signing is a questionable one. He's injury-prone, on the decline and his rates/reviews from last season are hardly positive. There were and are currently better options on the open market (eg: Gelinas, Willaims).

The price and term are good, meaning relatively low risk. If Bert excels then I'll change my mind.

Other: Giordano re-signing (thumbs up), Van Der Gulik resigning (thumbs up), Prust re-signing (thumbs down - only because it's a one-way deal), McElhinney re-signing (thumbs up), Nystrom re-signing (ambivalent).

Did I miss any? Agree/disagree?

Stevenson signs in Atlanta

Some exceedingly minor Flames news here. What the hell -- it's the off-season, right?

Grant Stevenson has apparently signed with the Atlanta Thrashers. The 27 year-old forward was the QC Flames top scorer last year, managing 30 goals and 73 points in 80 games. He was 10th overall in terms of AHL scoring and one of the top PP producers in the league. His are pretty decent results considering Calgary's farm team was pretty bad last year, particularly in the offense department. With better line mates, Stevenson is a probably a top 5 AHL player in 07/08.

I didn't get to see too much of Stevenson live last year. When I did watch him (preseason) I liked what I saw and I thought he was one of the best "fringe" players on the ice (him and Dustin Boyd stuck out to me). I think he would have been a more worthwhile gamble for the parent club over and above guys like Godard and Smith - but that's just me.

Here's hoping he gets a chance with Atlanta (and he probably will, considering their roster). I dont think he'll ever be an impact NHL player, but he strikes me as a useful 4th line/2nd unit PP guy or injury fill-in.

New strengths and new weaknesses

I think one of the rude awakenings awaiting the faithful next year is the effect Alex Tanguay's departure will have on the ice.

Let's put it this way: Owen Nolan is widely considered to be Sutter's most succesful former-star reclamation project to date. Beyond the various "intangibles" that made him popular (fighting, mean, etc.) I think the primary reason Nolan appeared to work out was the presence of Alex Tanguay on his line.

A lot of people are likely to read that and picture Alex Tanguay's 50-some points, his relatively un-physical style of play and his penchant for passing when shooting was the better option and think Im nuts.

The fact of the matter is, Alex Tanguay is a difference maker at ES. He was the second-best forward on the team, after Jarome Iginla, at 5on5 during his time here. He outscored whoever he played against, and he did it no matter who his linemates were. He made that 2nd line work last year. Absent Tanguay (or Iginla), Conroy/Nolan probably sink like a stone.

The Flames don't have a Tanguay to carry their reclamation project this year. The options for Keenan are, therefore:

1.) Play Bertuzzi with Iginla and hope he doesn't impede him.

2.) Play Bertuzzi with Lombardi against the softest possible competition.

Either way, I think Iginla will be seeing the toughest competition on the team (unless some kind of shut-down line can be soldered together out of Conroy, Moss, Bourque, Glencross, Nystrom). The probable result is a reduction in Iggy's outscoring since one of the inescapable truth of hockey is as the quality of opponent goes up, you tend to score less and tend to get scored on more (excepting Lidstrom).

The question will be: can the new 2nd line and re-vamped bottom 6 make up for the loss? Proposition one is, at best, a coin-flip, depending on how manic Iron Mike is with managing the bench. Lombardi, Boyd (?) and Bert/Cammalleri. You're basically betting on simultaneous growth from a couple of players (Boyd and Lombardi), not to mention the Bertuzzi injury/effectiveness uncertainty if he lands on that unit. Long odds, I'd say, for them to be anything better than even at ES.

The good news is the bottom 6 is much improved. Gone are total defectives like Godard and Smith. Gone too are offensive zone voids like Yelle and Nilson (probably). With the addition of Bourque and Glencross and the demotion of Conroy, the "lesser" forwards shouldn't be the black hole they were last year. There's also the possibility of Eric Nystrom improving (although I personally dont hold out much hope in that regard). In any case, the bottom of the rotation should be faster, more capable in the good end of the rink and less apt to get scored on this coming year.

Whether the Flames sink, tread water or improve will be mediated by how much the support staff can make up for the difference in Iginla's out-scoring. If nay, then sink. If yay (partial), then tread water. And if all coins land on heads, then the Flames could marginally improve.

Hazing the new guy

The St. Louis Blues just tendered an offer sheet to new Canuck Steve Bernier. Im sure this has everything to do with what kind of hockey player Bernier is and nothing to do with the Gillis' offer sheet to Backes earlier this summer. Says Davidson:

“Steve is a good young player who would play a big part in our youth movement,” said Davidson. “Our coaches and scouting staff are extremely positive about him.”

Translated from press-speak:

"Im going to show you that it's not okay to be a freshman!"

No more Mr. Nice Guy
No more Mr Cle-he-he-ean!

Cosmetic Surgery

With the addition of The Brute, the Flames look to be tight to the salary cap ceiling. NHLnumbers has Sutter in the red by 1.429M (58.129). That total includes 14 forwards (from Iginla to Prust), a 5M estimated cap-hit for Langkow's new contract, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies (Kipper and McElhinney). Excluded is Mark Giordano, whose contract is still a mystery.

Now that the top 6 is all but set, Sutter has a single off-season objective staring him in the face: cut the fat. With all the money the Flames will be spending next year, I think it's safe to say that:

1.) The Flames have too many players.

2.) The waiver-wire guys (Eriksson, Warrener and Nilson) will have to be traded rather than buried in the AHL. For the simple reason that the Calgary Flames organization must be nearing their budgetary ceiling and saving real dollars - as well as the cap space - has likely become a priority.

3.) Chances are good that Adrian Aucoin will be dealt. Aucoin is the only bad value player the Flames have who might be worth a damn elsewhere in the league. Let's face it: dealing just one of the other anchors will be a challenge. Getting rid of all of them in a single summer would be a miracle. If Sutter fails to shake lose, say, Warrener and Nilson, trading Aucoin goes from a "preferred" move to "necessary" one.

If things go down as I've sketched out above, I'll think it'll be another indictment of Sutters management. I've been an unabashed supporter of dealing Aucoin all summer and his departure wouldn't be grave. However, assuming the above scenario accurate, it would be another example of dealing good money before bad (or in this case, not-as-bad money before bad). Another example of losing muscle to fat.

Nothing is certain however and Sutter has the rest of the summer to complete the scramble. I should hold off on all condemnation** if and until some of my forecasts come to pass.

**(for the positive-minded, consider this my preemptive cheer for Sutter should he somehow prove me wrong and lipo the rosters love handles).

The Aftermath

First of all, some thanks:

To Earl Sleek, for his valuable insight.
To Greg Wyshnyski, for the link love.
And to everyone that stopped by, be it to observe, assuage, share in or laugh at my pain yesterday.

Some thoughts that have occurred to me since the initial foot-stomping...

Whats Old is New Again

Darryl Sutter is a creature of habit. He's been fairly consistent in his managerial style since he came into power. Some of his fetishes are obvious and well-worn: Western Canadian players (preferably born and bred), ex-Sutterites (perhaps add ex-Keenanites to that list now) and former first round draft picks.

Sutter has also made a habit of, every year, acquiring a reclamation project from the scratch and dent bin with the hopes of hammering out the imperfections (with various levels of success). Since 05/06, Sutter has signed or traded for the likes of:

Tony Amonte
Jeff Friesen
Kristian Huselius
Adrian Aucoin
Owen Nolan

and now, Todd Bertuzzi. Make no mistake about it - Bert is a project. He's been moved four separate times since the lock-out, each time with the hope that the "change of scenery" would help him regain his form (a phrase I've heard frequently from the radio jocks and talking heads since the announcement). It hasn't worked yet. Bertuzzi (and pieces) was dealt for Luongo in what is one of the worst trades in NHL history in 2006 (not coincidentally, by the man that now helms the Flames bench). He spent the majority of the season injured before being moved to Detroit at the deadline. He played 24 games as a Red Wing (RS and play-offs) scoring just 11 points. Brian Burke took a chance on Bertuzzi the following summer, inking him to the boat anchor contract which led to his inevitable buy-out this off-season.

Bertuzzi hasn't played a full season since 05/06. We are nearly 5 years removed from his last "dominant" year in the NHL (02/03). By all accounts, he rode coattails in Anaheim last year.

One of the issues with reclamation projects - for GMs and fans alike - is potentially confusing the player that was with the player that is. Acquiring former stars is seductive - the notion that your teams particular jersey will be the magical token that reinvigorates a fallen juggernaut to his former greatness creeps into every fans (GMs?) head. Hell - sometimes it works too.

More often than not, though, the decline is an inexorable one and there is no real way to halt or reverse it. See: Tony Amonte, Jeff Friesen. I think that's where the Flames are with Bertuzzi - the questions being: how rapid is his decline? And where do we land on the downward slope?

Celebrity Endorsements

During a press scrum yesterday, Sutter was asked about the potential for "fan backlash". He responded "I haven't, quite honest (TM), thought about it for more than five seconds."

I believe him. Sutter's personnel considerations aren't informed or swayed by their potential popularity. But someone in the Flames office does have the unenviable task of allaying the angry mutterings of paying customers. And that person, or persons, has made the savvy move of hitching the Bertuzzi wagon to the Iginla horse.

In just about every story or press release I've seen on the acquisition, the fact that the Flames Captain was consulted on - and endorsed - the signing has been mentioned. The reason is simple: Jarome's character is pretty much unimpeachable in Flames country. He's an elite hockey player, the face of the Franchise, a life-long Flame and, by all accounts, classy and gregarious. I doubt there's another "hometown" celebrity that holds the social clout of Jarome Iginla. He could probably run for mayor tomorrow, win the position in a landslide, and then declare his intention of converting Calgary into his own personal medievil fiefdom without anyone raising a stink.

It's the smart play from a PR perspective. There's almost no chance of Bertuzzi sullying Iginla's name. In contrast, one can already observe the calming effect Jarome's thumbs-up is having on the faithful. Just a day removed and I've heard something to the effect of "if Jarome is okay with it then..." more times than I can count.

Heros ease the rationalization process.

Matt takes on this point in his Bert post today and challenges the assertion that Sutter didn't think about the PR repercussions.

Flames Sign Dispicable F'ing (*&$(*&$(*&!

Sigh.

Let's get this out of the way.

I hate Todd Bertuzzi. I didn't like him prior to the Moore incident and I had no use for him as a human being afterwards. His conduct since, including implicating the Canucks management in the Moore civil case, has only deepened my contempt for the man. He's a violent criminal whose cowardly, injurious act destroyed another man's NHL career and altered his life forever. He also strikes me as a dour, surly, taciturn bully and a potential dressing room cancer.

I've been a Flames fan since I can remember. I watched them lose in the finals in '86 and then win the Cup in Montreal three years later. I stuck by them during the terrible Young Guns years and I turned the other cheek when Marchment was brought on board. I'm probably a Flames fan for life now; my support is forever tied to this Franchise. But I won't raise my arms or my voice for Todd Bertuzzi. I can accept that he's "paid his debt" (insofar as he served his disgustingly light sentence) and I won't begrudge him the remainder of his hockey career - but I don't have to like the guy and I refuse to apologize for him now that he's a Flame. I'll cheer for the goals he scores next year only grudgingly and only because he's wearing Flames colors. Any potential success enjoyed by the team will be tainted - distasteful however sweet.

These are the last words I'll have on this issue. I'll reserve my analysis on Bertuzzi from here on in to strictly pragmatic (ie; his usefulness as a hockey player) terms.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
*as if spoken through gritted teeth*

Bertuzzi probably improves the Calgary Flames, albeit marginally and only because the top 6 forward depth was so painfully thin. I can't speak to what effect the ogre will have on the dressing room, but he can still sort of play...in a lazy, morose and occasionally injured fashion. But he still has soft hands and is tough to move off the puck.

Last season, Bertuzzi scored 14 goals and 40 points for the Ducks in 68 games. He enjoyed the best possible linemates (Getzlaf and Perry?) according to behindthenet and saw some pillowy soft competition (-0.06). His ES advanced stats appear fairly pedestrian given his favorable surroundings, however: 1.98 ESP/60, +0.6 CORSI, 2.98 GF/60 and +9 (Getzlaf was +29 by comparison). Im sure Earl will chime in here (already has in the post below I see) to fill in the gaps with some qualitative takes on his performance for the Ducks. Personally, Bertuzzi has seemed tentative and uninvolved to me since his downfall a few years ago; I don't know if this has to do with his on-going injury concerns or his mental baggage, but, echoing the man himself - "it is what it is".

Perhaps more disconcerting are Bertuzzi's PP numbers from last year. His PP/60 of 2.55 was lower than Doug Weight and MA Bergeron and lower than Iginla's ESP/60 rate of 2.85 (!). That's a really minuscule efficacy rate for a supposed top 6 forward. The kicker is, the team scored 6.80 goals/60 while he was on the ice with the man advantage - so either Bertuzzi was contributing and was unlucky enough that his contributions never ended up on the score sheet, or he happened to share the ice with guys that were actually getting results.

Anyways, Bertuzzi will likely have a similar role in Calgary as he did with Anaheim last year, although with lesser linemates. Example -

Cammalleri-Langkow-Lombardi
Boyd?-Lombardi-Bertuzzi

I would expect the 2nd line to be heavily sheltered in this configuration, with Iginla's trio taking on all comers, another "checking" unit seeing tough competition as frequently as possible with Lombardi's line left to pierce the soft underbelly. One of my concerns looking at that combination now is whether Bertuzzi will be able to keep up with water-bugs like Boyd and Lombo - especially given that one of the primary accusations leveled at the latter player is his trouble "playing with" line-mates due to speed differences. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

Bottom-line:

The good - Bertuzzi is a proven top 6 forward who firms up this squads depth chart where it's desperately needed.

The bad - I'll leave it to Robert Cleave, who said it best in the comments below:

Slow, takes a lot of minor penalties, on the decline. Sure he didn't play defence for the Flames last year?

Seriously, I'm not sure even a league minimum 1 year deal is worth the hassle. He's not exactly known to be a great teammate, and this would put the lie to Sutter's claims of more youth and speed up front. Does Sutter think being in Calgary will get any more out of Bertuzzi than being in Detroit or Anaheim did? Those were two pretty stable environments, and he didn't do much. He had good linemates in both places, and a management group in Anaheim that were in his corner. Leave him to the Atlantas of the league.

The best news is he's only signed for a single year and the dollar figure isn't prohibitive (1.95M).

Here's hoping Keenan can squeeze some use out of the big lug.

UPDATE - I'll add the blogosphere reactions as they come in.

Mirtle.
Puck Daddy Wyshnyski.
Nick doesn't like it either.
Jes Golbez.
Jibblescribbits looks forward to hating the Flames.
Duhatschek frowns disapprovingly:

It was six years ago, in the 2001-02 season, that Bertuzzi chased Iginla and his former Canucks' teammate Marcus Naslund for the NHL scoring title. Iginla finished first with 96 points, Bertuzzi third with 85. Bertuzzi is slow by today's NHL standards, but Iginla's normal centre, Daymond Langkow, isn't exactly fleet of foot either. Once again, the operating philosophy in Calgary seems to be out of step with the rest of the league. As everyone else moves to young and fleet, Calgary continues to load up on experienced and physical. That's the polite way of putting it. It'll be up to Bertuzzi to prove he is more than just old, slow and cranky.

Here's a story from the Flames site on the Bertuzzi signing, with comments from Iginla and Bert himself:

"Jarome is 100 per cent why I am a Calgary Flame. It was exciting talking to him" said Bertuzzi, who signed a one-year deal as a free agent with the Flames on Monday. "We respected each other when we played against each other. I have always respected how Jarome has played and been in that market. He probably could have gone somewhere else be he has always stayed. I'm looking forward to being his teammate.

...

Iginla, who played on Canada's Olympic team with Bertuzzi, said Bertuzzi is a tough competitor and that he is looking forward to playing with him. "I'm excited he is going to join our club. I look forward to playing with him and doing some good things. I know when I played iwth him in the past there was a lot of chemistry. I know there are a lot of guys on our team that are excited."

Bertuzzi?

I shouldn't be posting anything before it's more certain, but there's some major smoke signals indicating Bertuzzi is coming to the Flames.

My analysis will be forthcoming should this prove accurate.

For now -- *puke*!

EDIT - Confirmed by TSN. My invective filled tirade is forthcoming.

From bargain shopping to selling lemons

I've already stated elsewhere that I think Sutter has two primary objectives remaining this off-season: addressing the forward depth issue and ridding the team of bad contracts. The post below takes aim at the first issue. This one is concerned with the second.

By my count, Calgary currently has 5 contracts in the organization that are good bets to be poor value deals next year. They are, in order from worst to least-worst:

Rhett Warrener (2.35M)
Anders Eriksson (1.5M)
Wayne Primeau (1.4M)
Marcus Nilson (1M)
Adrian Aucoin (4M)


Total - 10.25M

Four of the five could be replaced internally right now without too much fuss. Only Adrian Aucoin's departure might require some sort of addition to the roster to cover his contributions (Paul Mara or Marek Malik for instance). This is because Aucoin is the only real *regular* roster player of the bunch.

As everyone is no doubt aware, Warrener, Eriksson and Nilson have already passed through waivers with nary a bite. The buy-out deadline has come and gone, meaning the only way to get rid of their dollars is to either send them to the minors once the season rolls around - an expensive and therefore not ideal solution - or find them a new home somewhere else. It seems a daunting task, although this is a league where Jeff Finger landed a 3.5M/year long-term contract, so anything is possible.

In terms of trade value, one need only invert the list above, although one can never know how these players are perceived elsewhere. Maybe Lindy Ruff wants Warrener back? Perhaps there's someone who thinks Anders Erik...no, I can't even finish that one.

Two things may work in Sutters favor as he peddles his unwanted-s around the NHL:

Firstly, the relatively high cap floor. Right now, there are 5 teams below the minimum total salary of 40M - NYI, PHX, CLB, ATL and LAK - and many of them are in desperate need of both forward and defensive depth (just take a gander at the Islanders "team"). If clubs like LA and ATL continue to strike-out out in the UFA game, they'll be needing a few "salaried player for nothing" deals. Which works perfectly for the Flames.

Secondly, there are organizations like OTT that have failed to address specific needs with the free-agent market gradually draining down to the dregs. The Sens lost Commodore and Redden to free agency and have yet to replace either of them, for example.

With these things in mind, here's my list of clubs that will be looking to take a dump with the Flames...so to speak.

Los Angeles Kings -

LA currently has just 27.756M committed to next season. They have a handful of RFA's yet to sign (Stoll, Moulson, O'Sullivan, Richardson, Harrold) so let's bump them to 35M, assuming they get all the kids under contract. That means the Kings will likely have to add a minimum of $5M to the roster by October.

With Blake deciding to retire a Shark, LA is tragically thin on the back-end. As Rudy Kelly from Battle of California notes:

The Kings are really, really boned. According to Rich Hammond, the Kings had 3 targets this off-season and were expected to acquire 2 of them. Those men were Rob Blake, Brad Stuart, and Brooks Orpik. Because of this, Lubo became expendable and we traded him. (Whoops!) Blake boned us, Brad Stuart signed with the Red Wings (who are just going to fuck everyone next year), and Orpik signed a really long deal to stay with the Penguins. So, basically, the Kings are boned on defense. Here's what we have right now, not assuming prospects:

( )-Johnson
Greene-( )
Preissing-Gauthier/Harrold


LA has impressive kids in the fold, including Hickey, Teubert and Drew Doughty though none of them can be expected to step in and be difference makers next year (I believe they're all still teenagers in fact). Also, take note that newly acquired Denis Gauthier is listed - somewhat erroneously - as an NHL defenseman. The ex-Flame was buried by Philly in the minors and has only seen 60 NHL games in the last 3 seasons. At 32, it's probably generous to list him in the top 6.

Candidates to go to LA? Pretty much every Flame listed, although one would think Adrian Aucoin would be particularly attractive to a team whose only PP capable blueliner is Tom Preissing. Hell, even Warrener and Eriksson might start looking good to Lombardi if he still hasn't picked anyone else up by last call.

Atlanta Thrashers -

The Thrash have about 31M committed so far. They also have a terrible GM, dreadful depth and aren't exactly a desired destination for most UFAs. Behind the newly inked Ron Hainsey, Atlanta has the likes of Niclas Havelid, Garnet Exelby, Ken Klee and Tobias Enstrom on the back-end. Like LA, Eriksson and Aucoin would probably be a welcome addition to that blueline, although I doubt Adrian would waive that troublesome NTC to join the woeful Thrashers.

Marcus Nilson and, yes, Wayne Primeau might also be useful to ATL, with their forward lines boasting guys like Jim Slater, Brad Larsen, Bryan Little and Chris Thorburn. The Thrashers have 10 "NHL" quality skaters under contract, plus Jordan Lavallee and Colin Stuart (?) knocking on the door. If Waddell fails to plumb the depths of the UFA pool he'll be in desperate need of any kind of NHL-capable skater he can get his hands on.

New York Islanders -

Are almost exactly like the Thrashers in their dearth of NHL quality players, although they are actually right at the salary cap floor (39.6M). They do, in fact, have 6 defensemen already signed, although the list looks more like an AHL depth chart after Mark Streit (Sutton, Witt, Martinek, Campoli, Meyer).

The forwards ranks are even more laughable: with the departure of Fedotenko, Jon Sim looks to be their top-line LWer as of today. New York only has 9 forwards signed so far, with first-rounder Kyle Okposo poised to make the squad out of camp and RFA Sean Bergenheim needing to be re-inked. I think Marcus Nilson, who can still be an effective bottom-6 presence, would be a welcome addition to this roster.

Ottawa Senators -

The Sens would really only need one of the Flames anchors: Adrian Aucoin. They have just 3 NHL caliber defensemen signed (Volchenkov, Phillips, Schubert) with RFA Andrej Meszaros looking to score a big contract. They lost their primary PP option to free agency (Redden) and failed to attract the better UFA options. In time, Aucoin's 10 goals and 20 PP points may start to look mighty tempting to Bryan Murray, especially since the Flames won't be asking for much in return.

Did I miss anyone?

Bourque Signed

Calgary announced the signing of new Flame Rene Bourque today. Of course "no financial terms were disclosed" so Im not sure how much or for how long. Rumor was his qualifying offer was in the 1M for one year mark, but I'd be surprised if Sutter didn't go for a two or three year deal.

As Cruickshank/Lefebvre note, this eliminates the possibility of another buy-out window, meaning Warrener, Eriksson and Nilson will have to go away through other means (trade, demotion).

UPDATE - Inside the Flames is now including a 1.3M/year number in the above link. Apparently, the NHLPA is listing him at the same dollar figure, so it's likely legit.

**Nominally related: Although tsn was reporting the Daymond Langkow deal at 4.5m/year, the NHLPA has next season's compensation @ 5M. Either TSN was off or the Langkow's deal is front-loaded a la Kipper and the cap hit is assuaged by lower salaries in later years. Naturally, I hope it's the latter scenario.

Cracks in the dam

I posited yesterday that the Flames have 2 glaring holes in the roster, at least one of which will need to be filled if the team is expected to be reasonably competitive next season. Let's take a closer look to see which is the more pressing concern

Deficiency the first:

Cammalleri-Langkow-Iginla
________ -Lombardi-_________ (Boyd? Bourque? Moss?)
Bourque-Conroy-Moss
Glencross-Primeau-Prust/Nystrom

Deficiency the second:

Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-_______
Giordano-Aucoin
Vandermeer

Clearly deficiency the first is the bigger concern. None of the potential 2nd liners were top 6 forwards last season. I think Lombardi is poised to make the leap, but he's still not the kind of player that will drive results with the likes of Moss, 22 year-old Dustin Boyd or Bourque as his wingers. I like the idea of reserving one of the top 6 spots for a kid with potential (Boyd?), but I fear the effect of a two-kid experiment (we all know how that went last year), even if Keenan decides to drop Langkow down from Jarome's line to anchor the secondary scoring trio.

On the back-end the lack of another top 4 d-man is probably manageable. All 7 players are NHL caliber defensemen and at least two of them are very, very good players capable of carrying a duo. Hell, Dion dragged Eriksson around all season last year - pretty much any of the alternatives will likely be an improvement.

Another top-6 forward is therefore the priority. Remaining possibilties:

- Demitra
- Nagy
- Havlat (trade)
- Gagne (trade)
- Williams
- Shanahan
- Bertuzzi
- Vasicek
- Federov
- Vyborny
- Morrison
- Selanne

(edited to add Demitra)

Some of these guys are centers, some would have to be traded for, some probably won't be available and some aren't even really top-6 forwards anymore. And some are reprehensible scumbags. It's not a list of ideals but it's what's left to work with.

Thoughts?

Thinking out loud

Would a play for CHI Martin Havlat make sense for the Flames?

He's entering the final year of his 6M contract and the Hawks are currently 3M+ over the salary cap. Havlat is a scary good talent; an established offensive difference maker (when he isn't injured) who would fill the top 6 void admirably. Also, Chicago wouldn't want much salary back, considering their cap position.

Obviously Sutter would have to dump some of the bad contracts to make it work and Havlat is an injury waiting to happen, but...with most of the decent forward UFA's spoken for, it's an intriguing avenue to consider.