It's been an interesting start to the year for the Flames. I'd be lying if I said I expected them to be in this position heading into 2009 - a lot of guys have played a lot better than I expected. I wrote in the summer that the Flames didn't seem to have a lot of "outperformers" on the roster in terms of value vs. cap hit, but guys like Moss, Boyd, Glencross, Bourque, Pardy and even Primeau and Nystrom have done a lot to convince me otherwise. I'd feel better if Iginla could get back to being elite and/or some of the extra dollars on the back-end could go away, but Im more optimistic now than I was at the same time last season.
The Oilers are in town tonight on the heels of a loss to the woeful Ottawa Senators. The news for Flames fans gets better from there: Ales Hemsky is injured (again) and Curtis Glencross is probable to return to the line-up. Like the last two contests, file this under "very winnable". A "W" tonight would put them six points up on the Canucks for first in the division with a game in hand. Good stuff.
Prediction - Calgary 4, Edmonton 3. Langkow, Bertuzzi, Giordano and Glencross for the Flames. Souray, Penner and Cole for Edmonton.
Go Flames!
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Jarome Iginla - still ho-hum
Rob Kerr and Dean Molberg were discussing Jarome Iginla on the radio yesterday; the topic precipitated by Kerr noting that Iginla is something like 9 points (8 goals) off his pace from last year.
Although the issue was eventually poo-poohed by the Fan crew, I think it's fairly legitimate to say that Iginla hasn't really been as Iginla-like as one would expect/hope. Kerr predicted that "someone" was going to write a "what's wrong with Jarome Iginla?" article in the near future and after the captain's lackluster effort last night, I decided to oblige.
First, the subjective stuff - by my eye, Iginla was mediocre bordering on detrimental against the Wild. He made some poor decisions in the shallow end of the offensive zone (one of them resulting in the Wild's lone goal) and was kept to the perimeter for most of the evening. He also completely failed to execute whenever he got the puck in a scoring area. I think he managed just one shot in 20+ minutes of ice (3 of it coming with the man advantage).
As you can see, the numbers from last night aren't too complimentary either: Iginla was battled to evens in terms of possession by a beat-up, road weary opponent. Not only that, his opposition for most of the evening was the Wild's "checking line" of Veilleux, Miettinen and Belanger: so it's not like Jarome was taking on the big boys. At best, Veilleux and company should be hoping to minimize the damage Iginla inflicts, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. They certainly shouldn't be outscoring him.
Of course, one bad game in isolation is hardly worthy of indictment. The problem is Jarome has been off and on like this all year. All his ES stats are middle of the road. Supporters will point to his 40 points in 36 games as proof that he's actually playing well, but that doesn't impress me in light of his ice-time. Only Ovechkin plays more at ES and only Malkin plays more on the PP.
The truth of the matter is, all of Jarome's rates are off. He's on pace for 275 shots on net so far, a full 63 less than he managed last year and his lowest per game shot pace since 03/04. He's nearly 1 point/hour below his previous PP scoring rate, even though the team has marginally improved with the man advantage (17.8% vs. 16.8%).
The team depth has improved below him, but Keenan is still giving Iginla plenty of chances to drive the bus, so it's not like the steps forward by Bourque, Moss, Boyd etc has eaten into Jarome's ice-time. In fact, the Flames success relative to last year has come thanks to that improved depth and in spite of Iginla's dip in output.
Going forward, an elite Iginla would actually move the Flames up a wrung or two in the Western Conference hierarchy I think, and make an all important 3rd place finish far more likely. The big guy still has plenty of time to get things going again (and I'm certainly not saying that he's been dreadful or anything), but the trends aren't anywhere near Hart worthy so far like they were last year.
Although the issue was eventually poo-poohed by the Fan crew, I think it's fairly legitimate to say that Iginla hasn't really been as Iginla-like as one would expect/hope. Kerr predicted that "someone" was going to write a "what's wrong with Jarome Iginla?" article in the near future and after the captain's lackluster effort last night, I decided to oblige.
First, the subjective stuff - by my eye, Iginla was mediocre bordering on detrimental against the Wild. He made some poor decisions in the shallow end of the offensive zone (one of them resulting in the Wild's lone goal) and was kept to the perimeter for most of the evening. He also completely failed to execute whenever he got the puck in a scoring area. I think he managed just one shot in 20+ minutes of ice (3 of it coming with the man advantage).
As you can see, the numbers from last night aren't too complimentary either: Iginla was battled to evens in terms of possession by a beat-up, road weary opponent. Not only that, his opposition for most of the evening was the Wild's "checking line" of Veilleux, Miettinen and Belanger: so it's not like Jarome was taking on the big boys. At best, Veilleux and company should be hoping to minimize the damage Iginla inflicts, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. They certainly shouldn't be outscoring him.
Of course, one bad game in isolation is hardly worthy of indictment. The problem is Jarome has been off and on like this all year. All his ES stats are middle of the road. Supporters will point to his 40 points in 36 games as proof that he's actually playing well, but that doesn't impress me in light of his ice-time. Only Ovechkin plays more at ES and only Malkin plays more on the PP.
The truth of the matter is, all of Jarome's rates are off. He's on pace for 275 shots on net so far, a full 63 less than he managed last year and his lowest per game shot pace since 03/04. He's nearly 1 point/hour below his previous PP scoring rate, even though the team has marginally improved with the man advantage (17.8% vs. 16.8%).
The team depth has improved below him, but Keenan is still giving Iginla plenty of chances to drive the bus, so it's not like the steps forward by Bourque, Moss, Boyd etc has eaten into Jarome's ice-time. In fact, the Flames success relative to last year has come thanks to that improved depth and in spite of Iginla's dip in output.
Going forward, an elite Iginla would actually move the Flames up a wrung or two in the Western Conference hierarchy I think, and make an all important 3rd place finish far more likely. The big guy still has plenty of time to get things going again (and I'm certainly not saying that he's been dreadful or anything), but the trends aren't anywhere near Hart worthy so far like they were last year.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Gameday - Minny at Calgary
The Wild and Flames are two clubs headed in opposite directions. After a hot start, Minnesota has stooped to getting booed in their own building while the Flames have garnered points in something like 7 straight games and are now in first in the NW division.
The problem with Minny is predictable and obvious: they can't score. Like any Lemaire helmed squad, they have elite special teams but that just isn't enough if you can't do anything at ES. Mikko Koivu has taken the next step and has quietly become an elite center in the NHL, but there isn't much past him. Nolan is old and injured. Brunette is - at best - a capable support player. Mienttinen has never scored more than 15 goals in the NHL. Bouchard, Pouliot, Sheppard etc. aren't up to much. Gaborik, of course, has talent enough to turn the tide but the dude is made out of tissue paper: he's missed 95% of the season already and is being held out of tonight's contest for "precautionary" reasons.
Oh yeah...Minnesota played (and lost) last night in Chicago. They're also limited to 5 defensemen, due to a Kim Johnsson personal matter. And I can't remember the last time the Wild beat Calgary at the dome. I won't go so far as to guarantee a win tonight, but...
So it's almost all good news in Flames country right now. Bourque is cruising along. Boyd is getting a promotion. Adam Pardy is looking like a legit defender. Langkow is absolutely lights out in terms of driving possession. The PP has looked much better recently and the PK continues to get the job done. The club is also in the middle of a cozy little home-stand, one populated by lesser opponents (Edmonton is up next after Minny). If Calgary could get Glencross back and Jarome on a roll, it would be full steam ahead.
Anyways, here are the potential lines for tonight according to Inside the Flames:
Cammalleri-Conroy-Iginla
Lombardi-Langkow-Bertuzzi
Bourque-Boyd-Moss
pluggers
More to my liking, although...Conroy on the first line...
Also, the 4th line becomes a giant liability with Sutter centering it. In this configuration, I can't imagine the pluggers getting anything more than 5 minutes of ice tonight. Not a big deal, however.
The top 3 lines certainly look stronger, but this isn't what I'd call my ideal line-up. Here's my fantasy combos:
Bourque-Langkow-Iginla
A top line that can take on anybody and would be fierce on offensive zone draws. The puck would probably never leave the good end of the rink. Also, has anyone noticed that the Flames almost always score when Iginla and Bourque are on the ice together?
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Bertuzzi
Play these guys against the softies and let them eat them up. The goodfellas showed some promise during the preseason and I find it curious that Keenan hasn't given the trio a bit of a try during the regular season.
Boyd-Conroy-Moss
A fairly good third line with outscoring potential and a decent ability to get the puck moving in the right direction
Pluggers
Of course, the re-introduction of Glencross would mess things up, but this is what I'd like to see in the short term. Comments? Criticisms?
Prediction - Calgary 3, Minnesota 1. Iginla (2) and Boyd for the Flames. Burns for the Wild.
Update - Apparently Wild blogger Nick is live-blogging the game tonight. Feel free to head over and give him a hard time.
The problem with Minny is predictable and obvious: they can't score. Like any Lemaire helmed squad, they have elite special teams but that just isn't enough if you can't do anything at ES. Mikko Koivu has taken the next step and has quietly become an elite center in the NHL, but there isn't much past him. Nolan is old and injured. Brunette is - at best - a capable support player. Mienttinen has never scored more than 15 goals in the NHL. Bouchard, Pouliot, Sheppard etc. aren't up to much. Gaborik, of course, has talent enough to turn the tide but the dude is made out of tissue paper: he's missed 95% of the season already and is being held out of tonight's contest for "precautionary" reasons.
Oh yeah...Minnesota played (and lost) last night in Chicago. They're also limited to 5 defensemen, due to a Kim Johnsson personal matter. And I can't remember the last time the Wild beat Calgary at the dome. I won't go so far as to guarantee a win tonight, but...
So it's almost all good news in Flames country right now. Bourque is cruising along. Boyd is getting a promotion. Adam Pardy is looking like a legit defender. Langkow is absolutely lights out in terms of driving possession. The PP has looked much better recently and the PK continues to get the job done. The club is also in the middle of a cozy little home-stand, one populated by lesser opponents (Edmonton is up next after Minny). If Calgary could get Glencross back and Jarome on a roll, it would be full steam ahead.
Anyways, here are the potential lines for tonight according to Inside the Flames:
Cammalleri-Conroy-Iginla
Lombardi-Langkow-Bertuzzi
Bourque-Boyd-Moss
pluggers
More to my liking, although...Conroy on the first line...
Also, the 4th line becomes a giant liability with Sutter centering it. In this configuration, I can't imagine the pluggers getting anything more than 5 minutes of ice tonight. Not a big deal, however.
The top 3 lines certainly look stronger, but this isn't what I'd call my ideal line-up. Here's my fantasy combos:
Bourque-Langkow-Iginla
A top line that can take on anybody and would be fierce on offensive zone draws. The puck would probably never leave the good end of the rink. Also, has anyone noticed that the Flames almost always score when Iginla and Bourque are on the ice together?
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Bertuzzi
Play these guys against the softies and let them eat them up. The goodfellas showed some promise during the preseason and I find it curious that Keenan hasn't given the trio a bit of a try during the regular season.
Boyd-Conroy-Moss
A fairly good third line with outscoring potential and a decent ability to get the puck moving in the right direction
Pluggers
Of course, the re-introduction of Glencross would mess things up, but this is what I'd like to see in the short term. Comments? Criticisms?
Prediction - Calgary 3, Minnesota 1. Iginla (2) and Boyd for the Flames. Burns for the Wild.
Update - Apparently Wild blogger Nick is live-blogging the game tonight. Feel free to head over and give him a hard time.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Gameday - Sens at Flames
It's been a rapid decline for what was once - arguably - the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Senators have gone from juggernauts and Stanley Cup favorites to also rans in what seems like a blink of an eye.
What happened?
Well...their difference makers got real expensive, they bet on the wrong horse on the back-end, their up-and-comers turned out to be nominal players and they gave away 75% of their blueline for next to nothing over a short span. Then there's the goaltending.
This year, the Spezza-Heatley-Alfredsson combination that carried the team no matter what else went right or wrong...isn't. Previously elite players at ES, Heatley and Spezza are hovering around the 2 ESP/60 range (2.06 and 1.65!! respectively). Spezza has a marginal corsi rating. Heatley's is negative. Only 36 year-old Daniel Alfredsson has looked like a player 5on5 for Ottawa this year. Sean Donovan is 3rd on the team in terms of even-strength scoring efficiency. For real.
Something is definitely rotten in the Capital (aside from the politicians). The Senators just shouldn't be this bad. They are 10 points out of a play-off spot and have the fewest goals for in the league. The New York Islanders, headed by Richard Park and the doddering Doug Weight, have scored 10 more times than Ottawa.
So, yes, this is a very winnable game this evening. Not only are the Sens one of the worst teams in the league in general, their away record is a league worst 3-9-2.
On the Flames front, I don't expect any real changes to the roster. Bonus points to anyone that can come up with a plausible reason why Keenan keeps suppressing Dustin Boyd in favor of farm call-ups. My latest theory is Keenan wants a "playable" 4th line this year and is using Boyd to prop up Roy and Nystrom in the absence of Primeau.
Yeah...it sounds phony to me too. But yay positivity, right??
Prediction - Calgary 5, Sens 3. Iginla, Boyd, Phaneuf, Bourque and Langkow for the Flames. Heatley (2) and Kuba for the Sens.
What happened?
Well...their difference makers got real expensive, they bet on the wrong horse on the back-end, their up-and-comers turned out to be nominal players and they gave away 75% of their blueline for next to nothing over a short span. Then there's the goaltending.
This year, the Spezza-Heatley-Alfredsson combination that carried the team no matter what else went right or wrong...isn't. Previously elite players at ES, Heatley and Spezza are hovering around the 2 ESP/60 range (2.06 and 1.65!! respectively). Spezza has a marginal corsi rating. Heatley's is negative. Only 36 year-old Daniel Alfredsson has looked like a player 5on5 for Ottawa this year. Sean Donovan is 3rd on the team in terms of even-strength scoring efficiency. For real.
Something is definitely rotten in the Capital (aside from the politicians). The Senators just shouldn't be this bad. They are 10 points out of a play-off spot and have the fewest goals for in the league. The New York Islanders, headed by Richard Park and the doddering Doug Weight, have scored 10 more times than Ottawa.
So, yes, this is a very winnable game this evening. Not only are the Sens one of the worst teams in the league in general, their away record is a league worst 3-9-2.
On the Flames front, I don't expect any real changes to the roster. Bonus points to anyone that can come up with a plausible reason why Keenan keeps suppressing Dustin Boyd in favor of farm call-ups. My latest theory is Keenan wants a "playable" 4th line this year and is using Boyd to prop up Roy and Nystrom in the absence of Primeau.
Yeah...it sounds phony to me too. But yay positivity, right??
Prediction - Calgary 5, Sens 3. Iginla, Boyd, Phaneuf, Bourque and Langkow for the Flames. Heatley (2) and Kuba for the Sens.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Gamday - Flames vs Ducks...thoughts
- Calgary have played well in the last 10, but they still have a rather unsavory record against the better clubs in the league. And the players know it.
Twelve of the Flames 18 wins have come against the lower rung - think St. Louis, Nashville, Phoenix and Colorado. By my subjective and completely unscientific criteria, Calgary has only beaten quality opposition 6 times in 33 games so far this year.
- Jarome Iginla's season of "meh" continues, although he's improved his various underlying numbers recently. He's finally in the black at ES and his ESP/rate is slowly inching towards elite level again. He still trails Bourque and Glencross by the latter metric, but my money is on him overtaking them by January or so.
- Jamie Lundmark was sent down recently with Brett Sutter called up in his stead.
Now, I don't know the club's goals or policy regarding the farm call-ups. Maybe they want to give a handful of players a turn in the bigs and are just shuffling through the guys on the list. Or maybe they are responding to feedback from the QC coach.
Whatever the case, the summoning of Sutter doesn't make much sense on the face of it. The kid has 1 goal and 8 points in his second season on the farm. He's also a -4. His stats are, at best, mediocre. This cup-o-coffee for Sutter by-passes some other vets and stand-outs on the minor club (Greentree, Chucko, Van Der Gulik, Germyn), despite the fact they all have vastly superior output than sonny boy.
To be fair, I haven't looked too deeply in waivers eligibility, so maybe calling up guys like VDG, Germyn and even Greentree is problematic (I dont think so, but negotiating the needlessly complex waivers rules is something I dont have the stomach for this morning). Assuming waivers isn't a problem, then this is certainly a head-scratcher. And nepotism is so obvious it makes me want to look for another explanation. Although why Lundmark was sent back in the first place after garnering 3 assists in 4 games is a big enough question on it's own.
- The good news is, Boyd will move back up the depth chart with Sutter the younger in town. One thing that seemed crystal clear during the CHI game to me was that Boyd was head and shoulders better than both his 4th line team mates and competition. Word is he'll be skating with Langkow and Bertuzzi at ES.
- None of Primeau, Glencross or Prust are skating, so expect them to be out for awhile.
- The PP continues to look terrible. One thing I noticed last game was: Flames players are being isolated in the offensive way too easily during the man advantage. The puck support seems extremely nominal, to the degree that during board battles for puck retrieval, it was frequently one Flame vs. two Blackhawks, despite the fact Calgary had more players on the ice. Better support, especially behind the goal line, would help the PP out immensely I think.
- Like Iginla, Dion Phaneuf is having a fairly pedestrian season by his standards so far. He's taken a small step backwards in ES scoring and his GFON/60 rate is nearly a goal higher than it was last year (3.27 vs. 2.36).
Lots of time for those numbers to improve; we're only 33 games into the season and the guy is still just 23 years old, after all. Still, I think the question of over-use is a legit one at this point. Against CHI, for example, Phaneuf played the last minute or so of the 3rd period. He was then put back on for the first shift of OT, where he was subsequently beaten to the outside by an undeniably fresher Toews, leading to the GWG against. That's just plain old bad decision making by Keenan. The Flames aren't the Atlanta Thrashers - they have more than one capable blueliner. Give the kid a breather once in awhile.
- The guys over at Second City also noticed that Keenan was seemingly asleep at the switch during the Hawks match. He failed to do anything about the Iginla/Keith match-up, even though the only point Jarome got that night was the lone shift he had against someone else. Typically, a wily NHL coach notices things like that and tries to take advantage, especially with last change. Take a look at the shift charts and corsi links over there if you are so inclined.
- The Ducks are in town this evening, fresh off a loss to Vancouver last night. Anaheim is kind of a one line team now, although Getzlaf and Perry are no joke. In addition, a team boasting Neidermayer and Pronger on the back-end, plus one of the leagues best shut-down trios, can't ever be taken lightly.
Prediction - Flames make it SEVEN(!) wins against good teams tonight. Calgary 3, Anaheim 2. Perry and Pronger for the Ducks. Boyd, Iginla and Regehr for the Flames.
Twelve of the Flames 18 wins have come against the lower rung - think St. Louis, Nashville, Phoenix and Colorado. By my subjective and completely unscientific criteria, Calgary has only beaten quality opposition 6 times in 33 games so far this year.
- Jarome Iginla's season of "meh" continues, although he's improved his various underlying numbers recently. He's finally in the black at ES and his ESP/rate is slowly inching towards elite level again. He still trails Bourque and Glencross by the latter metric, but my money is on him overtaking them by January or so.
- Jamie Lundmark was sent down recently with Brett Sutter called up in his stead.
Now, I don't know the club's goals or policy regarding the farm call-ups. Maybe they want to give a handful of players a turn in the bigs and are just shuffling through the guys on the list. Or maybe they are responding to feedback from the QC coach.
Whatever the case, the summoning of Sutter doesn't make much sense on the face of it. The kid has 1 goal and 8 points in his second season on the farm. He's also a -4. His stats are, at best, mediocre. This cup-o-coffee for Sutter by-passes some other vets and stand-outs on the minor club (Greentree, Chucko, Van Der Gulik, Germyn), despite the fact they all have vastly superior output than sonny boy.
To be fair, I haven't looked too deeply in waivers eligibility, so maybe calling up guys like VDG, Germyn and even Greentree is problematic (I dont think so, but negotiating the needlessly complex waivers rules is something I dont have the stomach for this morning). Assuming waivers isn't a problem, then this is certainly a head-scratcher. And nepotism is so obvious it makes me want to look for another explanation. Although why Lundmark was sent back in the first place after garnering 3 assists in 4 games is a big enough question on it's own.
- The good news is, Boyd will move back up the depth chart with Sutter the younger in town. One thing that seemed crystal clear during the CHI game to me was that Boyd was head and shoulders better than both his 4th line team mates and competition. Word is he'll be skating with Langkow and Bertuzzi at ES.
- None of Primeau, Glencross or Prust are skating, so expect them to be out for awhile.
- The PP continues to look terrible. One thing I noticed last game was: Flames players are being isolated in the offensive way too easily during the man advantage. The puck support seems extremely nominal, to the degree that during board battles for puck retrieval, it was frequently one Flame vs. two Blackhawks, despite the fact Calgary had more players on the ice. Better support, especially behind the goal line, would help the PP out immensely I think.
- Like Iginla, Dion Phaneuf is having a fairly pedestrian season by his standards so far. He's taken a small step backwards in ES scoring and his GFON/60 rate is nearly a goal higher than it was last year (3.27 vs. 2.36).
Lots of time for those numbers to improve; we're only 33 games into the season and the guy is still just 23 years old, after all. Still, I think the question of over-use is a legit one at this point. Against CHI, for example, Phaneuf played the last minute or so of the 3rd period. He was then put back on for the first shift of OT, where he was subsequently beaten to the outside by an undeniably fresher Toews, leading to the GWG against. That's just plain old bad decision making by Keenan. The Flames aren't the Atlanta Thrashers - they have more than one capable blueliner. Give the kid a breather once in awhile.
- The guys over at Second City also noticed that Keenan was seemingly asleep at the switch during the Hawks match. He failed to do anything about the Iginla/Keith match-up, even though the only point Jarome got that night was the lone shift he had against someone else. Typically, a wily NHL coach notices things like that and tries to take advantage, especially with last change. Take a look at the shift charts and corsi links over there if you are so inclined.
- The Ducks are in town this evening, fresh off a loss to Vancouver last night. Anaheim is kind of a one line team now, although Getzlaf and Perry are no joke. In addition, a team boasting Neidermayer and Pronger on the back-end, plus one of the leagues best shut-down trios, can't ever be taken lightly.
Prediction - Flames make it SEVEN(!) wins against good teams tonight. Calgary 3, Anaheim 2. Perry and Pronger for the Ducks. Boyd, Iginla and Regehr for the Flames.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Congrats
To Jarome Iginla for scoring his 800th career goals points last night.
Congrats also to Rene Bourque for just being plain old awesome. He might be the Flames best forward right now.
Congrats also to Rene Bourque for just being plain old awesome. He might be the Flames best forward right now.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Gameday - 'Hawks at Flames
Chicago has owned Alberta so far this year. They spanked the Flames 6-1 the last time the two teams met up and frog-splashed the hapless Oil 9-2 a few days ago.
The Blackhawks have all the arrows pointing in the right direction. They have the best GD in the WC outside of San Jose (+29) and are one of only of three Western teams to have managed more than 100 GF so far (108). Now, I wouldn't bet on them finishing better than Red Wings at the end of the year (despite the superior GD) but they are certainly amongst the 2nd tier (3-6) teams in the conference. And they're probably a couple of years away from peaking.
The Flames have been heading in the right direction recently too, although they are still in the red in terms of GD (-1). Glencross is still hurt, so expect more Lundmark in the top 6.
And while it bugs me that Boyd is getting passed over in favor of a fringe NHLer, the real concern may be the #1 duo on the back-end. Since they were paired up, I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop. And while they've actually been effective overall, I think some cracks have begun to form: they were scored on the ice for all three goals in St. Louis and then for both goals the next night in Minnesota. In the recent match against Florida, the two were on for Bouwmeester's marker.
That's right: 6 of the last 7 GA have come against Adrian Aucoin and Robyn Regehr...small sample, but disturbing trend nonetheless.
Outside of the stats, Aucoin has looked dreadful to my eye recently. His egregious give-away was the sole cause of the Berglund goal on Tuesday, for example. He's looked particularly slow and a step behind in his own end overall.
If the top pairing continues to falter, Im not really sure what the solution is though. Corey Sarich is probably more effective on the third pairing and no one else on the team is really capable of stepping up. I guess we'll see what happens, especially once Vandermeer returns.
Im also a bit worried that Bertuzzi is going to materialize on Iginla's line this evening after his highlight reel GWG. We all know Keenan harbors (not so) secret, forbidden feelings for big Bert, so seeing him pot that OT winner with such panache must have swelled the heart in his chest and set off all the "Bertuzzi rulez!!!1!11!" neurons in his brain.
"Now that the big guy is back on track, I might as well re-unite him with Jarome. How will defensemen be able to stop them? How I ask? HOW?"
How indeed.
Prediction - Hawks 5, Flames 3. Kane (2), Havlat, Campbell and Byfuglien for Chicago. Iginla, Lombardi and Giordano for Calgary.
The Blackhawks have all the arrows pointing in the right direction. They have the best GD in the WC outside of San Jose (+29) and are one of only of three Western teams to have managed more than 100 GF so far (108). Now, I wouldn't bet on them finishing better than Red Wings at the end of the year (despite the superior GD) but they are certainly amongst the 2nd tier (3-6) teams in the conference. And they're probably a couple of years away from peaking.
The Flames have been heading in the right direction recently too, although they are still in the red in terms of GD (-1). Glencross is still hurt, so expect more Lundmark in the top 6.
And while it bugs me that Boyd is getting passed over in favor of a fringe NHLer, the real concern may be the #1 duo on the back-end. Since they were paired up, I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop. And while they've actually been effective overall, I think some cracks have begun to form: they were scored on the ice for all three goals in St. Louis and then for both goals the next night in Minnesota. In the recent match against Florida, the two were on for Bouwmeester's marker.
That's right: 6 of the last 7 GA have come against Adrian Aucoin and Robyn Regehr...small sample, but disturbing trend nonetheless.
Outside of the stats, Aucoin has looked dreadful to my eye recently. His egregious give-away was the sole cause of the Berglund goal on Tuesday, for example. He's looked particularly slow and a step behind in his own end overall.
If the top pairing continues to falter, Im not really sure what the solution is though. Corey Sarich is probably more effective on the third pairing and no one else on the team is really capable of stepping up. I guess we'll see what happens, especially once Vandermeer returns.
Im also a bit worried that Bertuzzi is going to materialize on Iginla's line this evening after his highlight reel GWG. We all know Keenan harbors (not so) secret, forbidden feelings for big Bert, so seeing him pot that OT winner with such panache must have swelled the heart in his chest and set off all the "Bertuzzi rulez!!!1!11!" neurons in his brain.
"Now that the big guy is back on track, I might as well re-unite him with Jarome. How will defensemen be able to stop them? How I ask? HOW?"
How indeed.
Prediction - Hawks 5, Flames 3. Kane (2), Havlat, Campbell and Byfuglien for Chicago. Iginla, Lombardi and Giordano for Calgary.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Futures trouble
One only needs to glance at the QC Flames record or scoring stats to realize the Flames have a complete lack of skilled prospects at forward. The team is currently led in scoring by fringe players like Lundmark, Greentree and Chucko - guys who would be in the NHL already if they had top 6 upside. Daniel Ryder, once one of the more promising centers in the system, was sent down to the ECHL recently (where he hasn't done a thing) and we're still years away from determining whether guys like Wahl or Nemisz are worth a damn or not.
Mikael Backlund was thought to be the best of the bunch. A stand-out at the world Juniors tournaments, Backlund was given a long look-see this summer in training camp, even though he was just 19 years old.
The kid fell flat on his face during the pre-season though. His game steadily deteriorated as he struggled to keep up at an NHL pace. By the end of the exhibition season, it was clear as day that he was nowhere near NHL ready (I was more impressed with Dustin Boyd's first training camp to tell you the truth).
More concerning, however, is the fact that Backlund is struggling in Sweden this season. A lot. As in...may be dropped from his team bad. That is a giant step backwards for a kid who was top 5 in European skaters during his draft and a leading scorer for Vasteras last year during the play-offs.
Backlund and the Flames still have options if he does get the boot. He can either play for the Kelowna Rockets in the WHL (they own his CHL rights) or they can plunk him down in the QC. Im not sure which would be a better choice for the kid, given the AHL is probably tougher than the league he's currently in, but...unless Backlund can do a full 180 - wherever he happens to land - this is bad news for this organization.
Mikael Backlund was thought to be the best of the bunch. A stand-out at the world Juniors tournaments, Backlund was given a long look-see this summer in training camp, even though he was just 19 years old.
The kid fell flat on his face during the pre-season though. His game steadily deteriorated as he struggled to keep up at an NHL pace. By the end of the exhibition season, it was clear as day that he was nowhere near NHL ready (I was more impressed with Dustin Boyd's first training camp to tell you the truth).
More concerning, however, is the fact that Backlund is struggling in Sweden this season. A lot. As in...may be dropped from his team bad. That is a giant step backwards for a kid who was top 5 in European skaters during his draft and a leading scorer for Vasteras last year during the play-offs.
Backlund and the Flames still have options if he does get the boot. He can either play for the Kelowna Rockets in the WHL (they own his CHL rights) or they can plunk him down in the QC. Im not sure which would be a better choice for the kid, given the AHL is probably tougher than the league he's currently in, but...unless Backlund can do a full 180 - wherever he happens to land - this is bad news for this organization.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Gameday - Flames in Minnesota
Incredible that it took three months for these two teams to meet each other, but... there it is.
It's also incredible that the Flames are subjected to another back-to-back road trip so shortly after the last one. A pox on the schedule makers house.
Minnesota charged hard out of the gate, but have stumbled recently. And it's not too hard to see why, looking at their depth at forward - 'bout as shallow as a summer puddle. They've got Miiko Koivu (who is outstanding) and...yeah, that's about it. The doddering Owen Nolan, Everyman Antti Mienttinen and the increasingly disappointing PM Bouchard. Every one else is a plugger or a rookie.
Except Gaborik, of course - perhaps the most fragile 26 year old in the league. The main man has missed pretty much the entire season to groin problems (I think), but may be making his return to the line-up tonight, or so the rumor goes. When he's healthy and capable, Gaborik is a game-changer...but a healthy Gaborik is about as rare as a politician admitting fault these days.
All that said, The Wild can't ever be taken lightly. The coach and the system ensures a rough night in the neutral zone EVERY night, so whether or not Gaborik is in the line-up or not, I fully expect 60 minutes of playing through mud between the bluelines.
Bad news for Minnesota is: Jarome woke up against the Blues yesterday (and he's usually good against the Wild anyways).
After the puck glanced in off his elbow in St. Louis, he looked much more like the player we've come to expect: confident, assertive and difficult to knock off the puck. While the first goal was fortunate, Iginla probably could have had 6 or more points last night if the people around him hadn't squandered some A+ quality chances (Cammalleri in the first, Bertuzzi in the third).
- No word on the line combos for this evening, although Lombardi inexplicably ended up skating with Jarome after the first period last night. The speedster had one of those "why can't he do that all the time?!" games, so it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up. Or, indeed, if he remains on the first line at all.
- Boyd getting minimal time from the 4th unit still really annoys me. Kids effort level and performance so far this year deserves better than to plumb the depths with Roy and Nystrom. It's especially galling to see Lundmark leap-frog the kid from the farm team - Jamie's done well in QC, but the future doesn't lie with him. Besides...there's a reason the kid made the big club out of camp and Lundmark didn't.
Oh well. Here's hoping Regehr can shut-down Gabbers tonight.
Predicition - Flames 4, Wild 2. Iginla (2), Giordano and Bertuzzi (!!) for Calgary. Koivu and Shepard for Minny.
Go Flames.
It's also incredible that the Flames are subjected to another back-to-back road trip so shortly after the last one. A pox on the schedule makers house.
Minnesota charged hard out of the gate, but have stumbled recently. And it's not too hard to see why, looking at their depth at forward - 'bout as shallow as a summer puddle. They've got Miiko Koivu (who is outstanding) and...yeah, that's about it. The doddering Owen Nolan, Everyman Antti Mienttinen and the increasingly disappointing PM Bouchard. Every one else is a plugger or a rookie.
Except Gaborik, of course - perhaps the most fragile 26 year old in the league. The main man has missed pretty much the entire season to groin problems (I think), but may be making his return to the line-up tonight, or so the rumor goes. When he's healthy and capable, Gaborik is a game-changer...but a healthy Gaborik is about as rare as a politician admitting fault these days.
All that said, The Wild can't ever be taken lightly. The coach and the system ensures a rough night in the neutral zone EVERY night, so whether or not Gaborik is in the line-up or not, I fully expect 60 minutes of playing through mud between the bluelines.
Bad news for Minnesota is: Jarome woke up against the Blues yesterday (and he's usually good against the Wild anyways).
After the puck glanced in off his elbow in St. Louis, he looked much more like the player we've come to expect: confident, assertive and difficult to knock off the puck. While the first goal was fortunate, Iginla probably could have had 6 or more points last night if the people around him hadn't squandered some A+ quality chances (Cammalleri in the first, Bertuzzi in the third).
- No word on the line combos for this evening, although Lombardi inexplicably ended up skating with Jarome after the first period last night. The speedster had one of those "why can't he do that all the time?!" games, so it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up. Or, indeed, if he remains on the first line at all.
- Boyd getting minimal time from the 4th unit still really annoys me. Kids effort level and performance so far this year deserves better than to plumb the depths with Roy and Nystrom. It's especially galling to see Lundmark leap-frog the kid from the farm team - Jamie's done well in QC, but the future doesn't lie with him. Besides...there's a reason the kid made the big club out of camp and Lundmark didn't.
Oh well. Here's hoping Regehr can shut-down Gabbers tonight.
Predicition - Flames 4, Wild 2. Iginla (2), Giordano and Bertuzzi (!!) for Calgary. Koivu and Shepard for Minny.
Go Flames.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Flames PP Blues
I apologize for the title.
Anyways, the Flames head out to St. Louis to face the Blues again today. With losses in their last three games, attention is swinging back towards the clubs current deficiencies. One of which is the power play.
Despite sitting 12th overall in the league, the Flames PP has looked awful recently. How awful? In comments to the Washington Post, Bruce Boudreau noted:
"Over the past month, we've been at a pretty consistent rate," he said. "If anything, we've tried to shoot the puck more. Nine times out of 10, when you're struggling, it's because you're trying to make the perfect play. Most power play goals start with a shot and a rebound and then something pops out. That's usually what happens. You can't prepare for a shot when you don't know where the rebound is going."
The Flames are the other 10% right now. They aren't struggling because they are forcing plays - hell, they aren't even able to set up in the zone to attempt plays. Puck distribution in the neutral zone is inaccurate while puck retrieval whenever it's shot in is nearly non-existent. The players don't even seem to know if, how or when to carry versus dump the puck during the man advantage. Unfortunately, the rare times the Flames do get a hold of the biscuit in the offensive zone, they end up hurriedly rimming it around the boards like a pee-wee team, resulting in time consuming board battles (many of which they lose) or sloppy, panicked plays limited to the perimeter.
That's the way it's seemed to my eye lately anyways. Bloody groan worthy stuff.
If the club can't markedly improve at ES (still awaiting the Jarome awakening on that front) then the special teams are going to have to drive a positive GD. So far, so good with the PK. The PP was pretty damn good to start the year too, especially with Bertuzzi shooting at 27%. That's not happening anymore, though. As noted, nothing really is.
To be honest, this is another area of the game where Iginla could probably improve, although his short-comings relative to last year certainly aren't massive. He's operating at 4.23 PPP/60 so far, which is "good" although around the rate one would expect a capable PP blueliner to manage rather than an elite forward. Last season, he was a team best 5.37 for comparison sake.
What's perhaps more damning is the fact that the difference between Iggy's GFON and GFOFF rates is nominal: 6.81-6.11 = 0.7 goals/60 minute. That is positively miniscule compared to his differential from last year (5.31), when he was clearly the one driving results with the man advantage.
To be fair, Calgary's second PP unit last season was putrid - perhaps worst in the league - making up a large amount of the difference. Still, Iggy has the smallest differential of any of the other "first unit" guys this year (Langkow, Bertuzzi, Cammalleri, Phaneuf) and even lags behind a couple of "second unit" players (Glencross and Moss) although sample size in an issue in the latter comparison.
Still, a player of Iginla's caliber should be way out in front by these metrics. He gets lots of time with the teams best players on the PP and is an obvious and proven offensive contributor. While it's probably unfair to say he's been bad on the PP so far, that doesn't mean he couldn't stand to improve some.
Other stuff:
- Glencross out (curses!) Boyd moves up (I assume) and the rumor is that Lundmark has been recalled. Im actually rather interested to see how Chucko and Greentree do in Lundmark's absence on the farm. By all accounts, the two big wingers have been carried by Lundmark's strong play and their stats may be inflated as a result. If Jamie spends any amount of time with the big club, it'll be instructive to see if one or both fall away from their current PPG paces (0.89 for Greentree, 0.79 for Chucko).
- Iginla is having a tough time at ES and his PP performance could be better, but...at least he's drawing a lot of penalties.
- The only Blues player scoring right now is BJ Crombeen......Who?
- Bertuzzi was in court yesterday, dealing with the Moore civil suit. Will this help or hurt his efforts to end his 17 game goalless drought I wonder?
- Im not sure what the lines will be tonight, but I liked Robert's proposed units from the prior post:
Bourque-Langkow-Iginla
power vs. power
Lombardi-Conroy-Moss
second toughs
Cammalleri-Boyd-Bertuzzi
Softer matchups, and be rigorous about it. Like Randy Carlyle in 06/07 with the Getzlaf line rigorous.
?(Lundmark)-Nystrom-Roy
10 ES shifts max. Nystrom gets some extra time on the PK.
Makes sense to me. That said, Im sure we'll see Conroy up with Iggy again, even though it's pretty clear that doesn't work worth a damn.
Prediction - The slide continues. Blues 3, Flames 2. Goals by Boyd and Langkow for Calgary. Perron, Tkachuk and Backes for St. Louis.
Anyways, the Flames head out to St. Louis to face the Blues again today. With losses in their last three games, attention is swinging back towards the clubs current deficiencies. One of which is the power play.
Despite sitting 12th overall in the league, the Flames PP has looked awful recently. How awful? In comments to the Washington Post, Bruce Boudreau noted:
"Over the past month, we've been at a pretty consistent rate," he said. "If anything, we've tried to shoot the puck more. Nine times out of 10, when you're struggling, it's because you're trying to make the perfect play. Most power play goals start with a shot and a rebound and then something pops out. That's usually what happens. You can't prepare for a shot when you don't know where the rebound is going."
The Flames are the other 10% right now. They aren't struggling because they are forcing plays - hell, they aren't even able to set up in the zone to attempt plays. Puck distribution in the neutral zone is inaccurate while puck retrieval whenever it's shot in is nearly non-existent. The players don't even seem to know if, how or when to carry versus dump the puck during the man advantage. Unfortunately, the rare times the Flames do get a hold of the biscuit in the offensive zone, they end up hurriedly rimming it around the boards like a pee-wee team, resulting in time consuming board battles (many of which they lose) or sloppy, panicked plays limited to the perimeter.
That's the way it's seemed to my eye lately anyways. Bloody groan worthy stuff.
If the club can't markedly improve at ES (still awaiting the Jarome awakening on that front) then the special teams are going to have to drive a positive GD. So far, so good with the PK. The PP was pretty damn good to start the year too, especially with Bertuzzi shooting at 27%. That's not happening anymore, though. As noted, nothing really is.
To be honest, this is another area of the game where Iginla could probably improve, although his short-comings relative to last year certainly aren't massive. He's operating at 4.23 PPP/60 so far, which is "good" although around the rate one would expect a capable PP blueliner to manage rather than an elite forward. Last season, he was a team best 5.37 for comparison sake.
What's perhaps more damning is the fact that the difference between Iggy's GFON and GFOFF rates is nominal: 6.81-6.11 = 0.7 goals/60 minute. That is positively miniscule compared to his differential from last year (5.31), when he was clearly the one driving results with the man advantage.
To be fair, Calgary's second PP unit last season was putrid - perhaps worst in the league - making up a large amount of the difference. Still, Iggy has the smallest differential of any of the other "first unit" guys this year (Langkow, Bertuzzi, Cammalleri, Phaneuf) and even lags behind a couple of "second unit" players (Glencross and Moss) although sample size in an issue in the latter comparison.
Still, a player of Iginla's caliber should be way out in front by these metrics. He gets lots of time with the teams best players on the PP and is an obvious and proven offensive contributor. While it's probably unfair to say he's been bad on the PP so far, that doesn't mean he couldn't stand to improve some.
Other stuff:
- Glencross out (curses!) Boyd moves up (I assume) and the rumor is that Lundmark has been recalled. Im actually rather interested to see how Chucko and Greentree do in Lundmark's absence on the farm. By all accounts, the two big wingers have been carried by Lundmark's strong play and their stats may be inflated as a result. If Jamie spends any amount of time with the big club, it'll be instructive to see if one or both fall away from their current PPG paces (0.89 for Greentree, 0.79 for Chucko).
- Iginla is having a tough time at ES and his PP performance could be better, but...at least he's drawing a lot of penalties.
- The only Blues player scoring right now is BJ Crombeen......Who?
- Bertuzzi was in court yesterday, dealing with the Moore civil suit. Will this help or hurt his efforts to end his 17 game goalless drought I wonder?
- Im not sure what the lines will be tonight, but I liked Robert's proposed units from the prior post:
Bourque-Langkow-Iginla
power vs. power
Lombardi-Conroy-Moss
second toughs
Cammalleri-Boyd-Bertuzzi
Softer matchups, and be rigorous about it. Like Randy Carlyle in 06/07 with the Getzlaf line rigorous.
?(Lundmark)-Nystrom-Roy
10 ES shifts max. Nystrom gets some extra time on the PK.
Makes sense to me. That said, Im sure we'll see Conroy up with Iggy again, even though it's pretty clear that doesn't work worth a damn.
Prediction - The slide continues. Blues 3, Flames 2. Goals by Boyd and Langkow for Calgary. Perron, Tkachuk and Backes for St. Louis.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Flames news nuggets
Nothing major to discuss in Flames land right now, so here's some of the news and views about the team making the rounds on the interwebs.
- Matt digs through the Flames corsi numbers and finds that Langkow is driving the bus. Iginla is struggling, in contrast, mostly when he plays with...wait for it...Craig Conroy!
- The 2009 Canadian Junior team roster was set over the weekend. Flames prospect Keith Aulie made the club. Congratulations Keith! Other Flames picks in the tourny include Mitch Wahl (US) and Mikael Backlund (Sweden). John Negrin and Greg Nemisz weren't invited to camp this year (boooooooooo).
- Curtis Glencross is hurt and probably won't be making the trip with the team. That is bad news for the Flames - Glencross and Bourque have been kicking some major ass from the "third line" recently. They, with Matthew Lombardi, were probably the best trio versus Florida the other night. The silver lining is Boyd gets to move back up I suppose.
The question is, who gets the call up? Warren Peters? Jamie Lundmark (leading QC in points)? Kyle Greentree (leading QC in goals)? Kris Chucko (shudder)?
- Mike Keenan is starting to trust Adam Pardy a bit more:
"Against Detroit, we had Robyn (Regehr) up against Hossa quite a bit," Keenan said. "I had a chance to send Robyn out there against Hossa, but instead chose Adam.
"He turned around to me and gave me a look when I did it. I said, 'You go stop him now.' It was a good opportunity for him to learn more about his own ability and how to stop top players.
"He had a great shift and it helped his confidence."
I think Pardy has been pretty good since his terrible outing in Montreal. His game against Florida was particularly sound. His ES number according to behind the net are fairly strong (1.85 GAON/60, +15.4), which is all you can really ask of the kid.
- A paradox: Not a single flames player has a negative corsi rating, but only two of them are positive in terms of GF/GA (Glencross and Bourque). Calgary has the puck going in the right direction, clearly, but that's not showing up in goal differential. Does that challenge the utility of the corsi metric or is the team suffering through bad luck/bad goaltending?
- The Flames now have the 5th best PK (85.2%) in the league and the 12th best PP (19%). If they could get their 5on5 house in order, they could be a pretty damn good squad. Assuming the special teams results have some sustain to them, of course.
- Matt digs through the Flames corsi numbers and finds that Langkow is driving the bus. Iginla is struggling, in contrast, mostly when he plays with...wait for it...Craig Conroy!
- The 2009 Canadian Junior team roster was set over the weekend. Flames prospect Keith Aulie made the club. Congratulations Keith! Other Flames picks in the tourny include Mitch Wahl (US) and Mikael Backlund (Sweden). John Negrin and Greg Nemisz weren't invited to camp this year (boooooooooo).
- Curtis Glencross is hurt and probably won't be making the trip with the team. That is bad news for the Flames - Glencross and Bourque have been kicking some major ass from the "third line" recently. They, with Matthew Lombardi, were probably the best trio versus Florida the other night. The silver lining is Boyd gets to move back up I suppose.
The question is, who gets the call up? Warren Peters? Jamie Lundmark (leading QC in points)? Kyle Greentree (leading QC in goals)? Kris Chucko (shudder)?
- Mike Keenan is starting to trust Adam Pardy a bit more:
"Against Detroit, we had Robyn (Regehr) up against Hossa quite a bit," Keenan said. "I had a chance to send Robyn out there against Hossa, but instead chose Adam.
"He turned around to me and gave me a look when I did it. I said, 'You go stop him now.' It was a good opportunity for him to learn more about his own ability and how to stop top players.
"He had a great shift and it helped his confidence."
I think Pardy has been pretty good since his terrible outing in Montreal. His game against Florida was particularly sound. His ES number according to behind the net are fairly strong (1.85 GAON/60, +15.4), which is all you can really ask of the kid.
- A paradox: Not a single flames player has a negative corsi rating, but only two of them are positive in terms of GF/GA (Glencross and Bourque). Calgary has the puck going in the right direction, clearly, but that's not showing up in goal differential. Does that challenge the utility of the corsi metric or is the team suffering through bad luck/bad goaltending?
- The Flames now have the 5th best PK (85.2%) in the league and the 12th best PP (19%). If they could get their 5on5 house in order, they could be a pretty damn good squad. Assuming the special teams results have some sustain to them, of course.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Counterstrike
As you may or may not know, Montreal Canadiens fans have made a concerted effort to get their precious favorites into the all-star game by stuffing the NHL's virtual ballot boxes.
This doesn't sit well with many of their Eastern Conferences adversaries. Pens fans in particular seemed the most rankled.
As such, the venerable Pensblog emailed me recently, asking if Flames fans could get involved in an alliance to counter-act the en masse voting by the Canadiens faithful. The deal is: vote for Alexander Ovechkin in EC and they, in turn, will try to get Iginla into the game ahead of Marian Hossa.
I dont talk much about the all-star game stuff around here because I consider it pretty much irrelevant. However, this sounds like one of the few ways to inject some fun into the proceedings. So have at it Flames fans.
Go here to vote.
This doesn't sit well with many of their Eastern Conferences adversaries. Pens fans in particular seemed the most rankled.
As such, the venerable Pensblog emailed me recently, asking if Flames fans could get involved in an alliance to counter-act the en masse voting by the Canadiens faithful. The deal is: vote for Alexander Ovechkin in EC and they, in turn, will try to get Iginla into the game ahead of Marian Hossa.
I dont talk much about the all-star game stuff around here because I consider it pretty much irrelevant. However, this sounds like one of the few ways to inject some fun into the proceedings. So have at it Flames fans.
Go here to vote.
Gameday - Florida arrives to -20 temps
Speak of the Devil, Jay Bouwmeester blows into town tonight along with the first miserable blizzard of the season. "All this could be yours if you sign here" may well be Sutter's sales pitch to the young stud defenseman...
Florida has been winning some games on the back of Craig Anderson's completely unsustainably good play recently. Let's face it though - they're a bottom feeder. They were outshot 41-16 last night...by the Edmonton Oilers. Yes, the Panthers won, but 99 times out of 100 a 25 shot differential ends in defeat.
Florida is both bad and beat up. Nathan Horton and David Booth are currently on the shelf, meaning their fist line consists of Weiss, Frolik and, I guess, Jean Claude Van Damme disguised in goalie equipment. So while this is the dreaded "first home game after a road trip", it remains an eminently winnable contest.
Inside the Flames is reporting the practice lines were the same combos were saw in Detroit:
Cammalleri, Conroy, Iginla
Glencross, Boyd, Bourque
Bertuzzi, Langkow, Moss
Nystrom, Lombardi, Roy
And we'd all thought that "Conroy with Iginla" thing was through. Guess not. Lombardi is the odd man out and will be plumbing the depths with Roy and Nystrom*. Im happy with the Boyd trio and Moss has been absolutely lights out recently. Here's hoping he can keep it going.
Prediction - Flames 4, Panthers 2. Iginla, Giordano, Langkow and Phaneuf for Calgary. Weiss and McCabe for Florida.
Go Flames.
*(I now declare Lombardi to be a failed experiment in Calgary and expect him to be dealt this year. Clearly he's not going to be a Keenan favorite and is therefore doomed to forever skate with marginal linemates. He's also seemingly been passed by the likes of Moss, Boyd, Glencross and Bourque, not to mention the organizations glut of centers).
Florida has been winning some games on the back of Craig Anderson's completely unsustainably good play recently. Let's face it though - they're a bottom feeder. They were outshot 41-16 last night...by the Edmonton Oilers. Yes, the Panthers won, but 99 times out of 100 a 25 shot differential ends in defeat.
Florida is both bad and beat up. Nathan Horton and David Booth are currently on the shelf, meaning their fist line consists of Weiss, Frolik and, I guess, Jean Claude Van Damme disguised in goalie equipment. So while this is the dreaded "first home game after a road trip", it remains an eminently winnable contest.
Inside the Flames is reporting the practice lines were the same combos were saw in Detroit:
Cammalleri, Conroy, Iginla
Glencross, Boyd, Bourque
Bertuzzi, Langkow, Moss
Nystrom, Lombardi, Roy
And we'd all thought that "Conroy with Iginla" thing was through. Guess not. Lombardi is the odd man out and will be plumbing the depths with Roy and Nystrom*. Im happy with the Boyd trio and Moss has been absolutely lights out recently. Here's hoping he can keep it going.
Prediction - Flames 4, Panthers 2. Iginla, Giordano, Langkow and Phaneuf for Calgary. Weiss and McCabe for Florida.
Go Flames.
*(I now declare Lombardi to be a failed experiment in Calgary and expect him to be dealt this year. Clearly he's not going to be a Keenan favorite and is therefore doomed to forever skate with marginal linemates. He's also seemingly been passed by the likes of Moss, Boyd, Glencross and Bourque, not to mention the organizations glut of centers).
Keenan descends into self parody
In my "seriously" post yesterday, I channeled Keenan and wrote some fawning faux-comments about Todd Bertuzzi. It seems that I was a day too early because Keenan himself has revealed his embarrassing 240 pound blind-spot today:
Keenan has showed the utmost faith in Bertuzzi, using him nearly 20 minutes a night despite the diminishing returns on ice-time investment. The reasons, he says, are obvious.
"He's a preoccupation for both defenceman. They can't stop him. I watched (the TV feed) again this morning and the commentator said exactly that. When he comes out of the corner with that force, that drive . . . When you're as big as Todd is, can skate like he can, accelerate like he can, with those soft hands, and shoot the way he can, like I said he's a preoccupation.
"Nobody writes about that."
This from a man who berated Alex Tanguay into requesting a trade last season and immeately threw Huselius under the bus when his ES stats started to falter.
This level of confirmation bias in a fan is a little embarassing, but it's expected. But from a professional coach?
"You talk about (Bertuzzi's) plus-minus and the fact that he hadn't scored in this-many games.''An emphatic shake of the head. "Doesn't matter to me.''
Translation: No evidence to the contrary can convince me that Bertuzzi isn't that good of a hockey player anymore. Not 4 years of relatively ineffective play, not the fact that the Ducks bought him out this summer and not his floating and mind-numbingly bad decision making at ES this year.
Bertuzzi can do whatever he wants and Keenan is going to continue to play him 20 minutes a night, with good players and in key situations. I wonder if Bertuzzi finds Keenan's eyes lingering on him in the shower after games?
Sheezus, this is bordering on the absurd. I wonder what happens when the percentages swing back a little and Bert starts getting a few pluses here and there? Will he play 25 minutes a game? 30? Will Keenan strip the Captaincy from Jarome and confer it upon Sore Thumb?
One thing is clear - Keenan is going to pursue this Bert thing to the Nth degree, no matter the damage it does to the club.
Ridiculous.
Keenan has showed the utmost faith in Bertuzzi, using him nearly 20 minutes a night despite the diminishing returns on ice-time investment. The reasons, he says, are obvious.
"He's a preoccupation for both defenceman. They can't stop him. I watched (the TV feed) again this morning and the commentator said exactly that. When he comes out of the corner with that force, that drive . . . When you're as big as Todd is, can skate like he can, accelerate like he can, with those soft hands, and shoot the way he can, like I said he's a preoccupation.
"Nobody writes about that."
This from a man who berated Alex Tanguay into requesting a trade last season and immeately threw Huselius under the bus when his ES stats started to falter.
This level of confirmation bias in a fan is a little embarassing, but it's expected. But from a professional coach?
"You talk about (Bertuzzi's) plus-minus and the fact that he hadn't scored in this-many games.''An emphatic shake of the head. "Doesn't matter to me.''
Translation: No evidence to the contrary can convince me that Bertuzzi isn't that good of a hockey player anymore. Not 4 years of relatively ineffective play, not the fact that the Ducks bought him out this summer and not his floating and mind-numbingly bad decision making at ES this year.
Bertuzzi can do whatever he wants and Keenan is going to continue to play him 20 minutes a night, with good players and in key situations. I wonder if Bertuzzi finds Keenan's eyes lingering on him in the shower after games?
Sheezus, this is bordering on the absurd. I wonder what happens when the percentages swing back a little and Bert starts getting a few pluses here and there? Will he play 25 minutes a game? 30? Will Keenan strip the Captaincy from Jarome and confer it upon Sore Thumb?
One thing is clear - Keenan is going to pursue this Bert thing to the Nth degree, no matter the damage it does to the club.
Ridiculous.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Bouwmeester auction begins
During the pre-game last night, Pierre McGuire mentioned that Florida has begun to solicit offers for Jay Bouwmeester. Lowetide talked about the Oilers potentially making a run for him, with potential parts being Cogliano, Gilbert + prospect.
Let's just establish that Bouwmeester is probably one of the top 5 defensemen under the age of 25 in the league. He leads the NHL in terms of ice time per game. He leads his team in terms of quality of competition and (currently) scoring. He's huge, but has the quickness and stride of a man half his size. Bouwmeester is the real deal and is no doubt right at the top of Darryl Sutters Christmas list (he's native Albertan, afterall).
Im not sure what the asking price will turn out to be for a guy like JayBo, but the Flames have some pieces up for grabs. With half a dozen centers in the mix, one of Langkow or Lombardi is probably expendable at this point (especially with Boyd's step forward this year). Cory Sarich looks more and more like a guy who should be moved lest his 3M+ contract end up on the third pairing for the next 4 years. And available prospects probably include just about everyone except Negrin and Backlund...plus we all know Sutter isn't shy about moving draft picks, as long as he wants the player in question enough. So:
Lombardi/Langkow+Sarich+Pelech/Chucko/Ryder/Irving/draft pick For Bouwmeester? Too much or not enough?
The resultant blueline would be:
Regehr-Bouwmeester
Phaneuf-Giordano
Vandermeer-Pardy/Aucoin (till end of season)
Does that top four set anyone else's groin a'tingling?
I expect Sutter to make a very real bid for Bouwmeester in the coming weeks. His addition would give Calgary the kind of back-end they've been paying for (but not getting) the last few years. Even if Langkow is part of the package, I suspect it would make Calgary a better team in the long run. Thoughts?
Let's just establish that Bouwmeester is probably one of the top 5 defensemen under the age of 25 in the league. He leads the NHL in terms of ice time per game. He leads his team in terms of quality of competition and (currently) scoring. He's huge, but has the quickness and stride of a man half his size. Bouwmeester is the real deal and is no doubt right at the top of Darryl Sutters Christmas list (he's native Albertan, afterall).
Im not sure what the asking price will turn out to be for a guy like JayBo, but the Flames have some pieces up for grabs. With half a dozen centers in the mix, one of Langkow or Lombardi is probably expendable at this point (especially with Boyd's step forward this year). Cory Sarich looks more and more like a guy who should be moved lest his 3M+ contract end up on the third pairing for the next 4 years. And available prospects probably include just about everyone except Negrin and Backlund...plus we all know Sutter isn't shy about moving draft picks, as long as he wants the player in question enough. So:
Lombardi/Langkow+Sarich+Pelech/Chucko/Ryder/Irving/draft pick For Bouwmeester? Too much or not enough?
The resultant blueline would be:
Regehr-Bouwmeester
Phaneuf-Giordano
Vandermeer-Pardy/Aucoin (till end of season)
Does that top four set anyone else's groin a'tingling?
I expect Sutter to make a very real bid for Bouwmeester in the coming weeks. His addition would give Calgary the kind of back-end they've been paying for (but not getting) the last few years. Even if Langkow is part of the package, I suspect it would make Calgary a better team in the long run. Thoughts?
Seriously?
Keenan gave rookie Curtis McElhinney high marks for his play in the first two periods but suggested the seldom-used backup showed signs of nerves in the final frame.
"That’s the next challenge for him," suggested Keenan, "to be able to close out a game when you have a two-goal lead. It wasn’t like we had a barrage of pucks coming at us."
It depends on your definition of barrage, of course. The Red Wings had 13 third-period shots and 39 overall.
...
Asked about Todd Bertuzzi's lack of point coverage on the game winning goal and -4 rating in the last two games, Keenan replied,
"Nothing is Todd's fault. He operates on another level out there, so it's not for us to question what he's doing. He's thinking eight, nine, sometimes ten moves ahead. Plus he's just so darn good looking. I mean, really...you just can't stay mad at the guy no matter what happens."
Although it seems fictional, I didn't make the first part up (just the second). Hey kid! You've been sitting on the bench for weeks and I've just thrown you into a nearly impossible situation against the defending cup champs in their own building (where we've lost 7 in a row). You made 35 saves, including a couple of highlight reelers, but hey...you need to learn how to "close out" games. Oh and Todd? Looking good buddy.
This is just...I don't...fucki...*indignant*...*choke*...!!
"That’s the next challenge for him," suggested Keenan, "to be able to close out a game when you have a two-goal lead. It wasn’t like we had a barrage of pucks coming at us."
It depends on your definition of barrage, of course. The Red Wings had 13 third-period shots and 39 overall.
...
Asked about Todd Bertuzzi's lack of point coverage on the game winning goal and -4 rating in the last two games, Keenan replied,
"Nothing is Todd's fault. He operates on another level out there, so it's not for us to question what he's doing. He's thinking eight, nine, sometimes ten moves ahead. Plus he's just so darn good looking. I mean, really...you just can't stay mad at the guy no matter what happens."
Although it seems fictional, I didn't make the first part up (just the second). Hey kid! You've been sitting on the bench for weeks and I've just thrown you into a nearly impossible situation against the defending cup champs in their own building (where we've lost 7 in a row). You made 35 saves, including a couple of highlight reelers, but hey...you need to learn how to "close out" games. Oh and Todd? Looking good buddy.
This is just...I don't...fucki...*indignant*...*choke*...!!
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Gameday - Flames in Detroit
Out of the frying pan and into the fire. The Flames traveled all night after the pasting in Montreal and arrived in Detroit around 4am this morning. Playing the Red Wings in the Joe is never an ideal situation for the Flames; they've lost their last 7 games in Motown. So ending a road trip on the second night of a back-to-back is less than encouraging.
With the loss nearly guaranteed, I'll be more interested in seeing whether Keenan can overcome his own damaging proclivities in the face of a strong opponent. Will Kipper play his Nth game in a row? Will Bertuzzi get more time in the top 6? Does Boyd get promoted (for more than few shifts) after being one of the consistently effective forwards against the Habs? My eyes will be on how the game is coached rather than how it's played I think.
Anyways, Detroit is having trouble keeping pucks out their net (due almost entirely to poor goaltending), but they are still elite in almost every way. They literally have at least one difference maker on each of their first three forward lines:
Holmstrom-DATSYUK-Cleary
Filpulla-ZETTERBERG-HOSSA
Hudler-FRANZEN-Samuelsson
There's no sheltering anyone against the Red Wings. If you have an obvious weakness, it will probably be exploited. Pardy, Sarich, Aucoin and Bertuzzi all make me understandably nervous heading into tonight therefore. As such, I think the team's humble goal this evening should be to at least try to keep the score close.
Prediction - Detroit 5, Calgary 2. Phaneuf and Moss for the Flames. Hossa, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Cleary and Franzen for the Wings.
UPDATE - according to Inside the Flames, Babcock has re-re-shuffled his lines back to their original state. So now they look like:
Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hossa
Zetterberg-Franzen-Samuelsson
Hudler-Filppula-Cleary
Maltby-Draper-Kopecky
Yeah. That makes me feel a whole lot better. Which Flames trio takes on the Datsyuk/Hossa line? Who gets "left with" the Zetterberg/Franzen match-up?
...
If Conklin isn't awful tonight, this is going to get ugly.
With the loss nearly guaranteed, I'll be more interested in seeing whether Keenan can overcome his own damaging proclivities in the face of a strong opponent. Will Kipper play his Nth game in a row? Will Bertuzzi get more time in the top 6? Does Boyd get promoted (for more than few shifts) after being one of the consistently effective forwards against the Habs? My eyes will be on how the game is coached rather than how it's played I think.
Anyways, Detroit is having trouble keeping pucks out their net (due almost entirely to poor goaltending), but they are still elite in almost every way. They literally have at least one difference maker on each of their first three forward lines:
Holmstrom-DATSYUK-Cleary
Filpulla-ZETTERBERG-HOSSA
Hudler-FRANZEN-Samuelsson
There's no sheltering anyone against the Red Wings. If you have an obvious weakness, it will probably be exploited. Pardy, Sarich, Aucoin and Bertuzzi all make me understandably nervous heading into tonight therefore. As such, I think the team's humble goal this evening should be to at least try to keep the score close.
Prediction - Detroit 5, Calgary 2. Phaneuf and Moss for the Flames. Hossa, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Cleary and Franzen for the Wings.
UPDATE - according to Inside the Flames, Babcock has re-re-shuffled his lines back to their original state. So now they look like:
Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hossa
Zetterberg-Franzen-Samuelsson
Hudler-Filppula-Cleary
Maltby-Draper-Kopecky
Yeah. That makes me feel a whole lot better. Which Flames trio takes on the Datsyuk/Hossa line? Who gets "left with" the Zetterberg/Franzen match-up?
...
If Conklin isn't awful tonight, this is going to get ugly.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Gameday - Flames in Montreal
Im all over the web today.
Dave has pricked the ballooning consensus on Bertuzzi over at his place. I think Bert sucks, Dave disagrees, the discussion ensues in the comments. We'll see whom Sore Thumb vindicates this evening.
There's also some back-and-forth going on over at Four Habs Fans. The virtual fisticuffs were provoked by HFF33's "10 things I hate about the Flames" post. Clearly he's still bitter about the '89 series. Feel free to help me parry the ripostes in the comments - or just go to watch me get inevitably buried. Either way.
in addition, Chris from Lions in Winter sent me some questions re: the Flames which should be posted at his site at some point today. I responded in kind with questions of my own and will update this post with his answers once they arrive.
Anyways, according to Inside the Flames, Calgary will be facing Jaroslav Halak tonight. Sometimes seeing a back-up is good news, but not this time: Halak has been excellent in both the AHL and NHL during his short professional career and could probably be a capable starter in the league. No favors there.
Also, the club's practice lines correspond almost exactly with what I proposed in the previous post - except with Bert playing with Iginla and Lombardi on the second (rather than the third) line.
Sigh.
As promised, here's my Q&A with Chris:
1.) Some of Montreal's offensive leaders from last season have come back down to earth (Kovalev, Kostitsyns, Plekanec). Is there some concern in town that the team might not be as potent as was once thought?
Yes and no. There is certainly concern about Kovalev and Plekanec. But lately most people have been optimistic about Andrei Kostitsyn. Plekanec and Andrei both started slowly last year too, and Plekanec the year before that; so there is precedent for them to improve as the season progresses. But the real reason there's less concern is that Tnaguay and Koivu have picked up the mantle. Robert Lang also gives us scoring from a 3rd centre - something we haven't had in recent memory.
2.) Bertuzzi is getting the gears from a lot of people around here (mostly me, actually). Who are the punching bags in Montreal this year? Excepting the unfortunate Ryan O'Byrne, of course.
Mostly Kovalev, actually. A lot is expected of him, and not many of his shots are turning into goals. He is setting up goals at even strength, which is a bonus. But until he scores and on the PP, people will fret. Other than Alex, the coach as usual gets a hard time and Georges Laraque has been outed for what he is: a waste of a roster place.
3.) How have the Canadiens fans received Alex Tanguay? Love? Hate? Ambivalent?
Love. He is the first French Canadian (super)star to skate for the Canadiens (not goaltend) in quite some time. Ribeiro may be a big scorer now, but he was 65 points at his best here and second fiddle by a long shot. I go back to Vincent Damphousse for someone of Tanguay's calibre. I was sceptical once he stopped racking up the goals, but watching him is to witness occasional feats of pure brilliance. Like many offensive creatives he doesn't leave you feeling like he's going to be sore the next morning, though.
4.) Is this D'Agostini kid for real?
That depends what you mean by for real. He is NHL calibre. He is not going to score 50 goals. Nor do i think he'll score 30 just yet. He has speed, hunger and sense so is an upgrade over Latendresse. I feel he'll get points if he stays with Kostitsyn and Koivu, but he should be the accessory on that line, given more time for the points to spread around, rather than the focus.
5.) Would Mats Sundin make the Canadiens a real contender? Who gets pushed off the roster if he signs in Montreal?
As you speculated, who wouldn't want Sundin. What gets overlooked as he is so big is that he can play. He can play as well as nearly anyone over the past 15 years and I definitely think he'd make any team that signed him better - including the Habs.
At the beginning of the year, we all thought Plekanec would resume number one line duty. As he hasn't, he could be pushed down, moved to the wing or whatever. But salary has to go in all likelihood too. My fear is that Koivu would ultimately have to be the one. If it's Saku for Mats, I don't make the move, because I've seen Saku in the playoffs.
Good stuff. Check out Lions for Winter for some of my reponses to Chris'questions:
1.) We look at your team as foreign fans and think Iginla, Kiprusoff, Phaneuf... Can you tell us from a Flames perspective who the players to look for tonight will be?
Kent: The stars are the obvious ones, although the Flames have some support guys making waves this year as well. Keep an eye on Glencross, Moss, Bourque and Boyd (who returns from injury tonight). On the back-end, watch the contentious sophomore Mark Giordano.
Dave has pricked the ballooning consensus on Bertuzzi over at his place. I think Bert sucks, Dave disagrees, the discussion ensues in the comments. We'll see whom Sore Thumb vindicates this evening.
There's also some back-and-forth going on over at Four Habs Fans. The virtual fisticuffs were provoked by HFF33's "10 things I hate about the Flames" post. Clearly he's still bitter about the '89 series. Feel free to help me parry the ripostes in the comments - or just go to watch me get inevitably buried. Either way.
in addition, Chris from Lions in Winter sent me some questions re: the Flames which should be posted at his site at some point today. I responded in kind with questions of my own and will update this post with his answers once they arrive.
Anyways, according to Inside the Flames, Calgary will be facing Jaroslav Halak tonight. Sometimes seeing a back-up is good news, but not this time: Halak has been excellent in both the AHL and NHL during his short professional career and could probably be a capable starter in the league. No favors there.
Also, the club's practice lines correspond almost exactly with what I proposed in the previous post - except with Bert playing with Iginla and Lombardi on the second (rather than the third) line.
Sigh.
As promised, here's my Q&A with Chris:
1.) Some of Montreal's offensive leaders from last season have come back down to earth (Kovalev, Kostitsyns, Plekanec). Is there some concern in town that the team might not be as potent as was once thought?
Yes and no. There is certainly concern about Kovalev and Plekanec. But lately most people have been optimistic about Andrei Kostitsyn. Plekanec and Andrei both started slowly last year too, and Plekanec the year before that; so there is precedent for them to improve as the season progresses. But the real reason there's less concern is that Tnaguay and Koivu have picked up the mantle. Robert Lang also gives us scoring from a 3rd centre - something we haven't had in recent memory.
2.) Bertuzzi is getting the gears from a lot of people around here (mostly me, actually). Who are the punching bags in Montreal this year? Excepting the unfortunate Ryan O'Byrne, of course.
Mostly Kovalev, actually. A lot is expected of him, and not many of his shots are turning into goals. He is setting up goals at even strength, which is a bonus. But until he scores and on the PP, people will fret. Other than Alex, the coach as usual gets a hard time and Georges Laraque has been outed for what he is: a waste of a roster place.
3.) How have the Canadiens fans received Alex Tanguay? Love? Hate? Ambivalent?
Love. He is the first French Canadian (super)star to skate for the Canadiens (not goaltend) in quite some time. Ribeiro may be a big scorer now, but he was 65 points at his best here and second fiddle by a long shot. I go back to Vincent Damphousse for someone of Tanguay's calibre. I was sceptical once he stopped racking up the goals, but watching him is to witness occasional feats of pure brilliance. Like many offensive creatives he doesn't leave you feeling like he's going to be sore the next morning, though.
4.) Is this D'Agostini kid for real?
That depends what you mean by for real. He is NHL calibre. He is not going to score 50 goals. Nor do i think he'll score 30 just yet. He has speed, hunger and sense so is an upgrade over Latendresse. I feel he'll get points if he stays with Kostitsyn and Koivu, but he should be the accessory on that line, given more time for the points to spread around, rather than the focus.
5.) Would Mats Sundin make the Canadiens a real contender? Who gets pushed off the roster if he signs in Montreal?
As you speculated, who wouldn't want Sundin. What gets overlooked as he is so big is that he can play. He can play as well as nearly anyone over the past 15 years and I definitely think he'd make any team that signed him better - including the Habs.
At the beginning of the year, we all thought Plekanec would resume number one line duty. As he hasn't, he could be pushed down, moved to the wing or whatever. But salary has to go in all likelihood too. My fear is that Koivu would ultimately have to be the one. If it's Saku for Mats, I don't make the move, because I've seen Saku in the playoffs.
Good stuff. Check out Lions for Winter for some of my reponses to Chris'questions:
1.) We look at your team as foreign fans and think Iginla, Kiprusoff, Phaneuf... Can you tell us from a Flames perspective who the players to look for tonight will be?
Kent: The stars are the obvious ones, although the Flames have some support guys making waves this year as well. Keep an eye on Glencross, Moss, Bourque and Boyd (who returns from injury tonight). On the back-end, watch the contentious sophomore Mark Giordano.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Boyd back - let the line shuffling begin
Last night against the Rangers, Todd Bertuzzi spent a majority of the first period fouling up perfectly good two-on-ones with Jarome Iginla. He eventually found his way back to the slightly more suitable second line; however, the question of player placement inside the top 6 will be resurrected anew now that Boyd has been declared fit to play.
With Bert vacillating between the first a second units, Keenan also swapped in Glencross from top to bottom, while Cammalleri, Langkow, Moss and Iginla stayed relatively stationary. That put Lombo back on the 3rd line (I guess it was inevitable) with Conroy and Bourque. The latter doesn't sound like that bad of trio actually and won't leave Lombardi standing in the rip tide with 50 pounds of wet laundry strapped across his back - so Im not too peeved about it.
Question remains though - who gets the bump? Moss, Glencross and Bourque are all lights out right now. Iginla is Iginla and Langkow is holding things together from the second like, despite what his relatively lackluster counting numbers might suggest. Cammalleri is putting up points because he's finally getting the kind of minutes his ability demands.
Then there's Bertuzzi. Yeah, he's been unlucky so far. You know what? The guys a lead weight even when the bounces are going his way. Ideally, I'd like to see Bert demoted down to the 4th unit at ES. Give him minutes away from anyone of consequence and then feed him a bunch of PP time.
Short term, I dont know how much better Boyd actually is relative to Bertuzzi, to tell you the truth. I know I personally like Boyd's game better, but that could be all in my head. In the long run though, I think it would be advisable for the org to promote and develop Boyd aggressively this season, especially in light of his apparent step forward. The kid is a much more integral piece of the puzzle and should be given as much water and time on the window sill as possible.
Bert, on the other hand, is clearly a stop-gap measure - and not a very good one at that. He's been sloping downwards for years. He won't be improving and won't be around next season. Use him like a sailor on leave uses the red-light district - short-term gratification is the only relevant concern. Use him where he's effective (PP), shelter him where he's weak (everywhere else) and don't allow him to sink the big boys (Iginla). Give the kids the much needed ice time to grow and improve.
Anyways, since we know this ain't going to happen, probable line-ups? I anticipate:
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Iginla
Bert-Langkow-Moss
Glencross-Conroy-Bourque
Nystrom-Boyd-Roy
With Glencross/Lombardi perhaps interchangeable. Book it.
With Bert vacillating between the first a second units, Keenan also swapped in Glencross from top to bottom, while Cammalleri, Langkow, Moss and Iginla stayed relatively stationary. That put Lombo back on the 3rd line (I guess it was inevitable) with Conroy and Bourque. The latter doesn't sound like that bad of trio actually and won't leave Lombardi standing in the rip tide with 50 pounds of wet laundry strapped across his back - so Im not too peeved about it.
Question remains though - who gets the bump? Moss, Glencross and Bourque are all lights out right now. Iginla is Iginla and Langkow is holding things together from the second like, despite what his relatively lackluster counting numbers might suggest. Cammalleri is putting up points because he's finally getting the kind of minutes his ability demands.
Then there's Bertuzzi. Yeah, he's been unlucky so far. You know what? The guys a lead weight even when the bounces are going his way. Ideally, I'd like to see Bert demoted down to the 4th unit at ES. Give him minutes away from anyone of consequence and then feed him a bunch of PP time.
Short term, I dont know how much better Boyd actually is relative to Bertuzzi, to tell you the truth. I know I personally like Boyd's game better, but that could be all in my head. In the long run though, I think it would be advisable for the org to promote and develop Boyd aggressively this season, especially in light of his apparent step forward. The kid is a much more integral piece of the puzzle and should be given as much water and time on the window sill as possible.
Bert, on the other hand, is clearly a stop-gap measure - and not a very good one at that. He's been sloping downwards for years. He won't be improving and won't be around next season. Use him like a sailor on leave uses the red-light district - short-term gratification is the only relevant concern. Use him where he's effective (PP), shelter him where he's weak (everywhere else) and don't allow him to sink the big boys (Iginla). Give the kids the much needed ice time to grow and improve.
Anyways, since we know this ain't going to happen, probable line-ups? I anticipate:
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Iginla
Bert-Langkow-Moss
Glencross-Conroy-Bourque
Nystrom-Boyd-Roy
With Glencross/Lombardi perhaps interchangeable. Book it.
More Maths! Oh Noes!!
More great stuff going on around the 'sphere these days. And by great, I mean: stupid, boring mathy stuff that some people disregard as either nerdy or irrevelent and others don't really understand. If you fall into either of these categories (particularly the former), don't read through only to make some snide comment at the bottom. Do us both a favor and stop here.
For the small remaining number of you who DO find this interesting, check out Mirtle and Tylers posts on individual player contributions to SV%.
Depending on how much stock you put in save percentage in general, you can see a lot of these guys haven't had much luck in terms of their goaltenders making a lot of saves. Only Gervais has had even close to average goaltending behind him, with Brind'Amour, Boyes, Mayers, etc., seeing an awful lot of pucks per shot beat their netminder.
Do you chalk this up to the fact better scoring chances are being given up or is it really just the luck of the draw?
That from James.
It’s sort of a dispute betwen randomness (also referred to as “luck” amongst the staterati) and a hot streak or a guy playing really well. Personally, I’m on the side of the randomness fence - no matter what those guys do, they aren’t going to be .980 ES save percentage goalies in the long haul. Maybe some pucks hit the post, maybe some guys on the other team flubbed their chances; who knows.
...
I’ve made my views clear that I think that the save percentage stuff is largely randomness at the NHL level. Time will tell but if there’s some sort of a market in which you can make bets based on the percentages behind guys through the first half of the year, I think that we’re starting to pile up the evidence that the smart is against betting on players continuing to post big save percentages over time.
Tyler's conclusion, based on a split-half test from last year.
It's somewhat counter-intuitive to think that individual players have a trivial effect on a goalies save percentage: surely Robyn Regehr deters more quality chances against than, say, Adam Pardy? Keep in mind, however, that only the shots that get through reflect SV%: if Reggie stick checks guys in the slot or limits chances by rubbing out guys on the wing, the puck doesn't make it to the net and doesn't register positively (a save) or negatively (a goal) either way.
As such players probably have more control over shot variance (shots for/ shots against) than the SV% behind them. So Regehr's positive contributions are limiting shots and therefore driving the shots against part of the SF/SA ratio - whereas a guy like Iginla drives the other part (SF).
What this means for poolies and the interested observer is that it's easier to identify the lucky/unlucky guys in the short term. In terms of the Calgary Flames, this means that Todd Bertuzzi isn't as bad as he seems, given the frightful SV% behind him (.888). I mean, he's bad - he makes questionable decisions with the puck, flubs good scoring chances too often and his positive corsi rate probably has a lot to do with who he plays with (Iginla and/or Langkow) - but there's a good chance that the SV% behind him will improve and he won't be -35 by the end of year.
Conversely, players probably don't drive big differences in team-wide on-ice SH% over the long term either. Ovechkin, Iginla etc. are effective offensive players more because they drive possession and shots on net rather than SH%. This was partially covered in the PDO post below, but guys like Langkow (5.2%), Bertuzzi (5.5%) and even Cammalleri (6.8%) are in line for a turn around in terms of ES SH% and therefore plus/minus. Especially Langkow, whose +112 corsi figure is the best of any forward on the team. The puck's going in the right direction when Langs is on the ice, it's just not going in right now for whatever reason (although his gain in SH% may be cancelled out by an inevitable drop in the .930 SV% behind him).
Potentially useful stuff if you're a fantasy player or gambling man. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on these numbers going forward, just to see what kind of predictive validity this theory has.
For the small remaining number of you who DO find this interesting, check out Mirtle and Tylers posts on individual player contributions to SV%.
Depending on how much stock you put in save percentage in general, you can see a lot of these guys haven't had much luck in terms of their goaltenders making a lot of saves. Only Gervais has had even close to average goaltending behind him, with Brind'Amour, Boyes, Mayers, etc., seeing an awful lot of pucks per shot beat their netminder.
Do you chalk this up to the fact better scoring chances are being given up or is it really just the luck of the draw?
That from James.
It’s sort of a dispute betwen randomness (also referred to as “luck” amongst the staterati) and a hot streak or a guy playing really well. Personally, I’m on the side of the randomness fence - no matter what those guys do, they aren’t going to be .980 ES save percentage goalies in the long haul. Maybe some pucks hit the post, maybe some guys on the other team flubbed their chances; who knows.
...
I’ve made my views clear that I think that the save percentage stuff is largely randomness at the NHL level. Time will tell but if there’s some sort of a market in which you can make bets based on the percentages behind guys through the first half of the year, I think that we’re starting to pile up the evidence that the smart is against betting on players continuing to post big save percentages over time.
Tyler's conclusion, based on a split-half test from last year.
It's somewhat counter-intuitive to think that individual players have a trivial effect on a goalies save percentage: surely Robyn Regehr deters more quality chances against than, say, Adam Pardy? Keep in mind, however, that only the shots that get through reflect SV%: if Reggie stick checks guys in the slot or limits chances by rubbing out guys on the wing, the puck doesn't make it to the net and doesn't register positively (a save) or negatively (a goal) either way.
As such players probably have more control over shot variance (shots for/ shots against) than the SV% behind them. So Regehr's positive contributions are limiting shots and therefore driving the shots against part of the SF/SA ratio - whereas a guy like Iginla drives the other part (SF).
What this means for poolies and the interested observer is that it's easier to identify the lucky/unlucky guys in the short term. In terms of the Calgary Flames, this means that Todd Bertuzzi isn't as bad as he seems, given the frightful SV% behind him (.888). I mean, he's bad - he makes questionable decisions with the puck, flubs good scoring chances too often and his positive corsi rate probably has a lot to do with who he plays with (Iginla and/or Langkow) - but there's a good chance that the SV% behind him will improve and he won't be -35 by the end of year.
Conversely, players probably don't drive big differences in team-wide on-ice SH% over the long term either. Ovechkin, Iginla etc. are effective offensive players more because they drive possession and shots on net rather than SH%. This was partially covered in the PDO post below, but guys like Langkow (5.2%), Bertuzzi (5.5%) and even Cammalleri (6.8%) are in line for a turn around in terms of ES SH% and therefore plus/minus. Especially Langkow, whose +112 corsi figure is the best of any forward on the team. The puck's going in the right direction when Langs is on the ice, it's just not going in right now for whatever reason (although his gain in SH% may be cancelled out by an inevitable drop in the .930 SV% behind him).
Potentially useful stuff if you're a fantasy player or gambling man. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on these numbers going forward, just to see what kind of predictive validity this theory has.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Gameday - Flames in New York
The Rangers are one of the best teams in the EC - by record if not by the numbers. They're buoyed by the superb goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist, but have had trouble scoring. Like the Flames, they're prone to getting crushed by stronger opponents, but tend to pull out close wins against the rest of the pack.
Warren Peters has been called up for his cup of coffee now that Prust is out with a fractured jaw. I expect he'll get in the line-up at some point over Andre Roy, who continues to be passed over by Keenan at every opportunity. Peters "made" the team out of camp last season, but never played a game before being sent back down to the farm. He's one of the "vets" on the baby Flames, and, while he doesn't have a very high ceiling, probably won't be too much of a liability. I think Peters was taken over guys like Greentree, Chucko and Lundmark partially due to perceived role fit (grider over scorers) and partially because it won't hurt the already mediocre QC Flames as much to have Peters sitting in the big team's press-box.
Something to watch going forward is the Regehr/Aucoin partnership. Not only because the duo has been absolutely lights out since they got together (I know...it's hard to believe), but because it renders Cory Sarich an overpaid third-pairing defenseman. And although we do so love our expensive third pairing guys around here, Sarich will become trade bait if this continues methinks. Especially with Pardy improving and Vandermeer coming back eventually.
Sarich is the kind of player who is nearly useless in the offensive zone. If he isn't shutting down reasonably good competition, he's grossly over-compensated therefore. Of course, all of this is moot if the pixie dust wears off of the Reggie/Aucoin pairing.
Prediction - Flames take this one, 3-1. Iginla, Lombardi and Giordano for Calgary. Zherdev for the Rags.
Go Flames.
Warren Peters has been called up for his cup of coffee now that Prust is out with a fractured jaw. I expect he'll get in the line-up at some point over Andre Roy, who continues to be passed over by Keenan at every opportunity. Peters "made" the team out of camp last season, but never played a game before being sent back down to the farm. He's one of the "vets" on the baby Flames, and, while he doesn't have a very high ceiling, probably won't be too much of a liability. I think Peters was taken over guys like Greentree, Chucko and Lundmark partially due to perceived role fit (grider over scorers) and partially because it won't hurt the already mediocre QC Flames as much to have Peters sitting in the big team's press-box.
Something to watch going forward is the Regehr/Aucoin partnership. Not only because the duo has been absolutely lights out since they got together (I know...it's hard to believe), but because it renders Cory Sarich an overpaid third-pairing defenseman. And although we do so love our expensive third pairing guys around here, Sarich will become trade bait if this continues methinks. Especially with Pardy improving and Vandermeer coming back eventually.
Sarich is the kind of player who is nearly useless in the offensive zone. If he isn't shutting down reasonably good competition, he's grossly over-compensated therefore. Of course, all of this is moot if the pixie dust wears off of the Reggie/Aucoin pairing.
Prediction - Flames take this one, 3-1. Iginla, Lombardi and Giordano for Calgary. Zherdev for the Rags.
Go Flames.
Friday, December 05, 2008
Gameday - Flames at Blues
Tonight marks the start of a difficult 4 game roady for Calgary. After St.Louis, the Flames will see Montreal, New York (Rangers) and Detroit; meaning points will be difficult to come by the next few days.
St.Louis an interesting if battle scarred club. They have some decent veteran pieces and a couple of kids that should be difference makers in a few years (Johnson, Oshie, Berglund and Perron), but they just aren't there yet. The injuries to Kariya, Johnson, McDonald and Oshie aren't helping anything, but even with a healthy line-up this is a team battling to be middling.
The Flames have some concerns of their own, however. Beyond injury problems (which have seemingly expanded to include Adrian Aucoin - just when it looked like he might actually be providing value for his contract), guys like Phaneuf and Iginla have been less than stellar for awhile now.
Speculation is that Dion was put off by Avery's comments last game, resulting in his atrocious performance. In truth, Phaneuf has been "ordinary" for quite some time, especially in terms of defensive responsibilities. Playfair was on the radio the other night and he said Phaneuf is "simply trying to do too much" whenever he's on the ice, which sounds about right. Every shift doesn't have to include a big hit or end-to-end rush, especially when you're playing 30 minutes a night.
In truth, Giordano has looked like the more grounded and dependable of the duo recently and (no slight to Gio here) that's not good. Dion stepped out of the "high potential!" phase when he signed his $6.5M contract this summer. The team can't afford for him to be a chaos defender anymore. Time to shape up.
Then there's Jarome Iginla. After watching him be totally ineffective against a questionable adversary Tuesday night, I have to conclude that the Captain just ain't right.
Iginla has more empty net goals (3) than even strength goals (2) through 25 games this year. Bourque, Glencross and Moss all have better ESP/60 rates - and a couple of them have faced tougher competition according to behind the net. That's not the difference maker we've come to know and love 'round these parts. Iginla has been beating up on the opposition for years at ES, but that dimension has been severely lacking through the first quarter of this season. Maybe he's injured, maybe he's not getting the bounces, maybe it's an issue of chemistry - whatever it is, I still assume that Iginla will get things going eventually. Sooner rather than later would be preferable though. As in, starting tonight.
Boyd hasn't skated recently, so we'll assume he's still out. Not sure what happens if Aucoin is unable to go - I assume a replacement will be called up from the farm, but who? Eriksson The Terrible, he of the waiver-wire risk? Matt Pelech, even though he's struggled to be relevent at the AHL level so far? Ryan Wilson, an un-drafted 20 year old in his first pro season?
All of them are a few steps away from ideal - or even "workable". Pelech would be my guess were I forced to choose.
Prediction - Flames drop a close one and panic ensues. St.Louis 3, Calgary 2. Boyes, Berglund and Backes for the Blues. Lombardi and Bourque for the Flames.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Final reminder - tonight is the Battle of Alberta/FHF meet-up at Schanks North. Matt and I will likely be joined by walkinvisble and Leanne as well as whoever else cares to show up. The FAN960 crew will be there doing their thing all night, so if you're curious about what people talking on the radio looks like, by all means drop by - even if you are a scummy Oilers fan.
Also, if you're wondering how to locate us in the cavernous sports bar, just look for the group of 30-somethings discussing line match-ups and taking pot shots at Bertuzzi. Also, some of us may be playing this Flames-themed drinking game:
Drink if Bertuzzi makes a back-hand pass. Twice if it's to nobody in particular, and again if it's "through the legs".
Drink if Aucoin's shot gets blocked (if he's in the line-up).
Drink when Bourque or Moss wins a battle along the boards.
Drink if Kipper lets in a stinker. Buy a pitcher if he gets a shut-out.
Drink when Giordano keeps the puck in at the offensive blueline.
Drink when Prust gets in a fight. Have another if he wins it.
See you there. Or, if not, feel free to try this drinking game at home alone.
Go Flames!
St.Louis an interesting if battle scarred club. They have some decent veteran pieces and a couple of kids that should be difference makers in a few years (Johnson, Oshie, Berglund and Perron), but they just aren't there yet. The injuries to Kariya, Johnson, McDonald and Oshie aren't helping anything, but even with a healthy line-up this is a team battling to be middling.
The Flames have some concerns of their own, however. Beyond injury problems (which have seemingly expanded to include Adrian Aucoin - just when it looked like he might actually be providing value for his contract), guys like Phaneuf and Iginla have been less than stellar for awhile now.
Speculation is that Dion was put off by Avery's comments last game, resulting in his atrocious performance. In truth, Phaneuf has been "ordinary" for quite some time, especially in terms of defensive responsibilities. Playfair was on the radio the other night and he said Phaneuf is "simply trying to do too much" whenever he's on the ice, which sounds about right. Every shift doesn't have to include a big hit or end-to-end rush, especially when you're playing 30 minutes a night.
In truth, Giordano has looked like the more grounded and dependable of the duo recently and (no slight to Gio here) that's not good. Dion stepped out of the "high potential!" phase when he signed his $6.5M contract this summer. The team can't afford for him to be a chaos defender anymore. Time to shape up.
Then there's Jarome Iginla. After watching him be totally ineffective against a questionable adversary Tuesday night, I have to conclude that the Captain just ain't right.
Iginla has more empty net goals (3) than even strength goals (2) through 25 games this year. Bourque, Glencross and Moss all have better ESP/60 rates - and a couple of them have faced tougher competition according to behind the net. That's not the difference maker we've come to know and love 'round these parts. Iginla has been beating up on the opposition for years at ES, but that dimension has been severely lacking through the first quarter of this season. Maybe he's injured, maybe he's not getting the bounces, maybe it's an issue of chemistry - whatever it is, I still assume that Iginla will get things going eventually. Sooner rather than later would be preferable though. As in, starting tonight.
Boyd hasn't skated recently, so we'll assume he's still out. Not sure what happens if Aucoin is unable to go - I assume a replacement will be called up from the farm, but who? Eriksson The Terrible, he of the waiver-wire risk? Matt Pelech, even though he's struggled to be relevent at the AHL level so far? Ryan Wilson, an un-drafted 20 year old in his first pro season?
All of them are a few steps away from ideal - or even "workable". Pelech would be my guess were I forced to choose.
Prediction - Flames drop a close one and panic ensues. St.Louis 3, Calgary 2. Boyes, Berglund and Backes for the Blues. Lombardi and Bourque for the Flames.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Final reminder - tonight is the Battle of Alberta/FHF meet-up at Schanks North. Matt and I will likely be joined by walkinvisble and Leanne as well as whoever else cares to show up. The FAN960 crew will be there doing their thing all night, so if you're curious about what people talking on the radio looks like, by all means drop by - even if you are a scummy Oilers fan.
Also, if you're wondering how to locate us in the cavernous sports bar, just look for the group of 30-somethings discussing line match-ups and taking pot shots at Bertuzzi. Also, some of us may be playing this Flames-themed drinking game:
Drink if Bertuzzi makes a back-hand pass. Twice if it's to nobody in particular, and again if it's "through the legs".
Drink if Aucoin's shot gets blocked (if he's in the line-up).
Drink when Bourque or Moss wins a battle along the boards.
Drink if Kipper lets in a stinker. Buy a pitcher if he gets a shut-out.
Drink when Giordano keeps the puck in at the offensive blueline.
Drink when Prust gets in a fight. Have another if he wins it.
See you there. Or, if not, feel free to try this drinking game at home alone.
Go Flames!
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Dowbiggen Interview
We Eat Children has an interesting Q&A with local columnist/radio personality/villain (in some Flames fans eyes) Bruce Dowbiggen today. It's fairly extensive, touching on a variety of subjects including blogging, journalism, the Flames management and the team itself. And while he doesn't have nice things to say about amateur bloggers (ie: me), I think it's definitely worth a read.
An excerpt:
WEC: What’s your take on using a blog to cover a beat like the Inside the Flames blog?
BD: I think it’s necessary now. I think that right now we’re finding out how it works and what we should post. The way the market is right now for beat stuff I think the blog is more important than the newspaper stuff. In fact I think the newspaper is where the opinion should go and the blog is where all the news goes. So if our beat guy is at a practice and the news of the day is some guy pulled a hamstring at the practice and he had to leave, boom, get that on the blog right away. I think that’s a great way to do it. The future of the business is to do that stuff online as it happens and then you pick the newspaper up the next day to read the interpretation and the columns.
WEC: In your years covering sports have you come across coaches who just did not want to cooperate with the media?
BD: Oh sure, Darryl Sutter is a very uncooperative kind of guy. There are lots of people who are very uncooperative. I have to contrast it from when I started 25 years ago when the beat guy was almost an assistant coach to the team. He was a sounding board for the coaches, it was before video, it was before a lot of the sophistication had come in. The role of the media and the beat guys relative to what they were covering has changed a lot over the past number of years. There are a lot of guys who cast their lines back to that era when they had life or death over whether a reporter gets information. The thing that really pisses Darryl Sutter off the most is that what they used to have as proprietary information is now public i.e. what the salaries are, what the contracts are. We are as informed on that stuff as anybody and we can talk to the players, the agents and the coaches about the decisions that go into who plays and who doesn’t. They don’t really control the flow of information the way they used to. They can’t BS us, they can’t trick us they way they used to and some of them find it hard to deal with and so they tune you out and try to silence you. That’s okay though, that’s their choice.
And that's just a snippet. check out the whole thing here.
An excerpt:
WEC: What’s your take on using a blog to cover a beat like the Inside the Flames blog?
BD: I think it’s necessary now. I think that right now we’re finding out how it works and what we should post. The way the market is right now for beat stuff I think the blog is more important than the newspaper stuff. In fact I think the newspaper is where the opinion should go and the blog is where all the news goes. So if our beat guy is at a practice and the news of the day is some guy pulled a hamstring at the practice and he had to leave, boom, get that on the blog right away. I think that’s a great way to do it. The future of the business is to do that stuff online as it happens and then you pick the newspaper up the next day to read the interpretation and the columns.
WEC: In your years covering sports have you come across coaches who just did not want to cooperate with the media?
BD: Oh sure, Darryl Sutter is a very uncooperative kind of guy. There are lots of people who are very uncooperative. I have to contrast it from when I started 25 years ago when the beat guy was almost an assistant coach to the team. He was a sounding board for the coaches, it was before video, it was before a lot of the sophistication had come in. The role of the media and the beat guys relative to what they were covering has changed a lot over the past number of years. There are a lot of guys who cast their lines back to that era when they had life or death over whether a reporter gets information. The thing that really pisses Darryl Sutter off the most is that what they used to have as proprietary information is now public i.e. what the salaries are, what the contracts are. We are as informed on that stuff as anybody and we can talk to the players, the agents and the coaches about the decisions that go into who plays and who doesn’t. They don’t really control the flow of information the way they used to. They can’t BS us, they can’t trick us they way they used to and some of them find it hard to deal with and so they tune you out and try to silence you. That’s okay though, that’s their choice.
And that's just a snippet. check out the whole thing here.
Flames Prospect Update
With a chunk of the season behind us, it's probably a good time to look at how the baby Flames are progressing. Keep in mind, this is all straight numbers reporting as I haven't seen any of these guys play since the pre-season.
Here's the QC Flames scoring at-a-glance. Like last year's club, the farm team is again mediocre at best, led in scoring by fringe NHLers (Lundmark and Eriksson) and lacking any sort of high-end talent. Still, there are a few notable stats-lines so far.
Kris Chucko - My favorite prospect punching bag. He's off to his best start ever, offensively speaking. He's already managed 10 goals and 21 points, nine points shy of his entire output from last season.
Of course, I have no idea if this represents a real step forward or is a product of expanded ice-time. There's no ice-time or points-by-situation break-down for AHL skaters that I know of, so there's no way to calculate and compare scoring rates.
Still, if he keeps up this PPG pace, he'll finish the season at around 73 points. That would at least suggest some NHL upside. It'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this gain or not.
Ryan Wilson - Sutter spoke highly of the undrafted rookie d-man recently, saying he could probably be playing in the NHL right now. While I think that's probably more of a GM pumping a kids tires through the media, it's nice to see a gamble like Wilson paying off. He's the farm's top scoring blueliner behind Bubba and is apparently turning into something of a fan favorite.
Kyle Greentree - The big ex-Flyer prospect apparently "wasn't right" at the start of the season owing to that ugly head injury he suffered in the Flames prospect tournament this summer. He's gotten back on track recently and has managed the third best point total on the team. My bet is he surpasses Chucko in the near future.
Matt Pelech - Pelech is having a hell of a year so far. As in, one hell of a BAD year. The former first rounder was one of the final cuts from the pre-season, but hasn't been able to carry that back to QC. Both his stats line and first hand accounts say he's struggled mightily, which is probably a little concerning for the organization. Pelech was expected to challenge for a spot on the big club both this season and next, but he's apparently incapable of getting the job done at the AHL all of a sudden.
Also of note - Dan Ryder and John Armstrong have played well recently, although both started out poorly for different reasons (Armstrong - injury, Ryder - rust). Going forward I would expect an expanded role for the two and some better numbers as they acclimatize to the AHL.
Juniors
Mitch Wahl - Calgary's second rounder from this summer was on fire to start the season but has slowed somewhat recently. He has 15 goals (5 less than his 20 from last year) and 29 points through 26 games already. He was also chosen to represent to the US at the upcoming World Championships.
I liked what I saw out of Wahl during the prospect tournament. He was fast, shifty and aggressive and seemed to have good instincts. Hopefully he can continue moving in the right direction.
Greg Niemisz - Is in the top 20 in OHL scoring with 11 goals and 29 points in 26 games so far. That projects to a 76 point season, a decent jump up from his previous 67 point year.
Nemisz is also an impressive +23, which suggests he isn't just piling up points on some high powered power play (*cough*Schremp*cough*). To be fair, however, it looks like Greg plays on something of Juggernaut in the Windsor Spitfires. His 29 points are good for third on the team, well behind Taylor Hall (49 points) and Ryan Ellis (45 points - also a defenseman!!) - both of whom are 1/2 in the OHL scoring race and a year younger.
One of major pitfalls of drafting juniors is favorable surroundings, where a kid puts up good numbers simply because he has excellent teammates. We'll have to wait and see if that's true of Nemisz I guess.
TJ Brodie - Keeping with the OHL, TJ Brodie has probably been the most pleasant surprise out of all the Flames prospects so far. The mid-rounder has 5 goals and 25 points through just 20 games, placing him 5th in the league in terms of scoring by defensemen (despite playing 7 or 8 games less than everyone else due to a minor injury).
Brodie was another kid that really stood out to me during the rookie tournament. His speed and poise with the puck were note-worthy and it looks like he's taking a big next step this year: to put his output in perspective, the Rangers first round pick Michael Del Zotto (drafted specifically for his offensive ability) is currently 7th in the league with 23 points in 23 games. Good stuff.
John Negrin - Darryl Sutter's favorite draft choice started out slowly but has been gaining momentum recently. He's managed 3 goals and 19 points through 28 games so far, which is pretty much right in line with his output from last season.
I was expecting a step-forward from Negrin this year, so Im a little disappointed to see him treading water. Im unsure as to the quality of his team (although they seem middling by the numbers) which may have something to do with his relatively ordinary performance.
Negrin will be 20 this March and should be dominating a league with so many teenagers, especially if he has NHL aspirations. He might be doing just that even now, but it isn't showing up in his stats.
Mikael Backlund - As you can guess, info on Backlund is spotty. According to Elite Prospects, Backlund has just 4 goals and 7 points through 14 games, which is really shrug-worthy production from someone so highly touted. It's somewhat worrying to see Backlund struggle (by the numbers, at least) after his colossal face-plant during the pre-season. Some expected him to step up and take the place of the departed Patrik Berglund, who tore the place up as a 19 year old last season, but that hasn't happened. The only good news I guess is there is lots of time left for him to turn things around.
Here's the QC Flames scoring at-a-glance. Like last year's club, the farm team is again mediocre at best, led in scoring by fringe NHLers (Lundmark and Eriksson) and lacking any sort of high-end talent. Still, there are a few notable stats-lines so far.
Kris Chucko - My favorite prospect punching bag. He's off to his best start ever, offensively speaking. He's already managed 10 goals and 21 points, nine points shy of his entire output from last season.
Of course, I have no idea if this represents a real step forward or is a product of expanded ice-time. There's no ice-time or points-by-situation break-down for AHL skaters that I know of, so there's no way to calculate and compare scoring rates.
Still, if he keeps up this PPG pace, he'll finish the season at around 73 points. That would at least suggest some NHL upside. It'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this gain or not.
Ryan Wilson - Sutter spoke highly of the undrafted rookie d-man recently, saying he could probably be playing in the NHL right now. While I think that's probably more of a GM pumping a kids tires through the media, it's nice to see a gamble like Wilson paying off. He's the farm's top scoring blueliner behind Bubba and is apparently turning into something of a fan favorite.
Kyle Greentree - The big ex-Flyer prospect apparently "wasn't right" at the start of the season owing to that ugly head injury he suffered in the Flames prospect tournament this summer. He's gotten back on track recently and has managed the third best point total on the team. My bet is he surpasses Chucko in the near future.
Matt Pelech - Pelech is having a hell of a year so far. As in, one hell of a BAD year. The former first rounder was one of the final cuts from the pre-season, but hasn't been able to carry that back to QC. Both his stats line and first hand accounts say he's struggled mightily, which is probably a little concerning for the organization. Pelech was expected to challenge for a spot on the big club both this season and next, but he's apparently incapable of getting the job done at the AHL all of a sudden.
Also of note - Dan Ryder and John Armstrong have played well recently, although both started out poorly for different reasons (Armstrong - injury, Ryder - rust). Going forward I would expect an expanded role for the two and some better numbers as they acclimatize to the AHL.
Juniors
Mitch Wahl - Calgary's second rounder from this summer was on fire to start the season but has slowed somewhat recently. He has 15 goals (5 less than his 20 from last year) and 29 points through 26 games already. He was also chosen to represent to the US at the upcoming World Championships.
I liked what I saw out of Wahl during the prospect tournament. He was fast, shifty and aggressive and seemed to have good instincts. Hopefully he can continue moving in the right direction.
Greg Niemisz - Is in the top 20 in OHL scoring with 11 goals and 29 points in 26 games so far. That projects to a 76 point season, a decent jump up from his previous 67 point year.
Nemisz is also an impressive +23, which suggests he isn't just piling up points on some high powered power play (*cough*Schremp*cough*). To be fair, however, it looks like Greg plays on something of Juggernaut in the Windsor Spitfires. His 29 points are good for third on the team, well behind Taylor Hall (49 points) and Ryan Ellis (45 points - also a defenseman!!) - both of whom are 1/2 in the OHL scoring race and a year younger.
One of major pitfalls of drafting juniors is favorable surroundings, where a kid puts up good numbers simply because he has excellent teammates. We'll have to wait and see if that's true of Nemisz I guess.
TJ Brodie - Keeping with the OHL, TJ Brodie has probably been the most pleasant surprise out of all the Flames prospects so far. The mid-rounder has 5 goals and 25 points through just 20 games, placing him 5th in the league in terms of scoring by defensemen (despite playing 7 or 8 games less than everyone else due to a minor injury).
Brodie was another kid that really stood out to me during the rookie tournament. His speed and poise with the puck were note-worthy and it looks like he's taking a big next step this year: to put his output in perspective, the Rangers first round pick Michael Del Zotto (drafted specifically for his offensive ability) is currently 7th in the league with 23 points in 23 games. Good stuff.
John Negrin - Darryl Sutter's favorite draft choice started out slowly but has been gaining momentum recently. He's managed 3 goals and 19 points through 28 games so far, which is pretty much right in line with his output from last season.
I was expecting a step-forward from Negrin this year, so Im a little disappointed to see him treading water. Im unsure as to the quality of his team (although they seem middling by the numbers) which may have something to do with his relatively ordinary performance.
Negrin will be 20 this March and should be dominating a league with so many teenagers, especially if he has NHL aspirations. He might be doing just that even now, but it isn't showing up in his stats.
Mikael Backlund - As you can guess, info on Backlund is spotty. According to Elite Prospects, Backlund has just 4 goals and 7 points through 14 games, which is really shrug-worthy production from someone so highly touted. It's somewhat worrying to see Backlund struggle (by the numbers, at least) after his colossal face-plant during the pre-season. Some expected him to step up and take the place of the departed Patrik Berglund, who tore the place up as a 19 year old last season, but that hasn't happened. The only good news I guess is there is lots of time left for him to turn things around.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Mo(n)ss(ster)
I'll get to my gripes later. For now, let's rain kudos upon David Monsster:
One goal and 8 (!) shots on net last night against Dallas. He was Calgary's best forward by a fair amount and has been full value all season so far. Matt has banged the drum for Moss for awhile and think we're all starting to see why.
Yes. This is honestly the best I could do. Shut up.
One goal and 8 (!) shots on net last night against Dallas. He was Calgary's best forward by a fair amount and has been full value all season so far. Matt has banged the drum for Moss for awhile and think we're all starting to see why.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Gameday: The little big "D"
I have a strange feeling heading into tonight. Strange, because for the first time in perhaps ever, it doesn't feel like the Stars are going to run the Flames out of the rink.
Dallas has (or rather...had) been good for a long time and seemingly had the Flames number for even longer. The Stars and Red Wings were the only two WC teams to consistently strike fear into my Flames-fan heart since the lock-out.
Well, no longer. Dallas lost some depth guys to free agency this summer, imported Sean Avery and then promptly stepped into an elevator shaft. Their difference makers are aging, injured or both, while Turco has caught a nasty case of the Theodores (or Raycrofts...Careys...you get the picture). No Zubov, no Morrow, no Lehtinen (no hope?). Oh yeah - that interminable scumbag Steve Ott is hurt too. YAY!!
As such, Dallas is currently the worst team in the WC by a good margin. They allow a ton of goals but can't score a lot themselves. The guys who over-achieved last season (Ribeiro, Morrow, Hagman, Niskanen) aren't doing it this year. Yup, it's ALL BAD.
Of course, as I've already mentioned this season, it's THESE games that always seem to derail the good vibes of a winning streak. An also-ran slinks into town and beats up on the local heroes, right when everyone is just starting to think "hey...we might have something here." It's why hockey is such a cruel sport to follow (unless you're a Detroit Red Wing fan). It's also why many of us keep coming back I suspect.
No word if Boyd is still hurt or not, although his return prompts a revisiting of the issues the team had when Lombardi came back from injury. If/when Boyd comes back, where does he slot into the line-up? Fourth line is a waste, but every other unit seems to be clicking...I suppose that's a bridge to cross once we get there.
Prediction - Im going to go with optimism for this one. Flames 3, Stars 1. Iginla, Bertuzzi (!) and Phaneuf for Calgary. Eriksson for Dallas.
Go Flames!
Update - Apparently the NHL has deemed fit to suspend Avery for his little off-color outburst today:
NEW YORK -- Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery has been suspended indefinitely, pending a hearing with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, in accordance with the provisions of NHL By-Law 17 and Article 6 of the NHL Constitution for conduct "detrimental to the League or game of hockey," the National Hockey League announced today. The suspension was imposed following inappropriate public comments, not pertaining to the game, made by Avery earlier today.
I like Avery getting slapped because he's a jackass, but...I was kinda looking forward to watching him come down Phaneuf's wing this evening...
(H/T to reader Ben).
Dallas has (or rather...had) been good for a long time and seemingly had the Flames number for even longer. The Stars and Red Wings were the only two WC teams to consistently strike fear into my Flames-fan heart since the lock-out.
Well, no longer. Dallas lost some depth guys to free agency this summer, imported Sean Avery and then promptly stepped into an elevator shaft. Their difference makers are aging, injured or both, while Turco has caught a nasty case of the Theodores (or Raycrofts...Careys...you get the picture). No Zubov, no Morrow, no Lehtinen (no hope?). Oh yeah - that interminable scumbag Steve Ott is hurt too. YAY!!
As such, Dallas is currently the worst team in the WC by a good margin. They allow a ton of goals but can't score a lot themselves. The guys who over-achieved last season (Ribeiro, Morrow, Hagman, Niskanen) aren't doing it this year. Yup, it's ALL BAD.
Of course, as I've already mentioned this season, it's THESE games that always seem to derail the good vibes of a winning streak. An also-ran slinks into town and beats up on the local heroes, right when everyone is just starting to think "hey...we might have something here." It's why hockey is such a cruel sport to follow (unless you're a Detroit Red Wing fan). It's also why many of us keep coming back I suspect.
No word if Boyd is still hurt or not, although his return prompts a revisiting of the issues the team had when Lombardi came back from injury. If/when Boyd comes back, where does he slot into the line-up? Fourth line is a waste, but every other unit seems to be clicking...I suppose that's a bridge to cross once we get there.
Prediction - Im going to go with optimism for this one. Flames 3, Stars 1. Iginla, Bertuzzi (!) and Phaneuf for Calgary. Eriksson for Dallas.
Go Flames!
Update - Apparently the NHL has deemed fit to suspend Avery for his little off-color outburst today:
NEW YORK -- Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery has been suspended indefinitely, pending a hearing with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, in accordance with the provisions of NHL By-Law 17 and Article 6 of the NHL Constitution for conduct "detrimental to the League or game of hockey," the National Hockey League announced today. The suspension was imposed following inappropriate public comments, not pertaining to the game, made by Avery earlier today.
I like Avery getting slapped because he's a jackass, but...I was kinda looking forward to watching him come down Phaneuf's wing this evening...
(H/T to reader Ben).
Monday, December 01, 2008
More acronyms and numbers
Interesting stuff over at MC79 recently (H/T to commenter Shep for the heads up). The discussion revolves around the "PDO number", which is a teams (or players) summed SH% and SV%. From the linked post:
A PDO number is a team’s ES S% plus their ES SV%. The idea, and I know that this will make some people uptight, is that there’s a lack of sustainability in that number - if it’s high, it’s going to come down; if it’s low, it’s going to go back up.
"High" being above the mean (approx. 100) by a few ticks and "low" being below the mean by a few ticks. Over the long haul, things tend to correct themselves in the percentages area, as Tyler shows in his first table: big differences (+/- 3 either way) above or below 100 tend to regress or progress back towards the middle over time.
The big "over-achievers" thus far? VAN, BOS, NJ and maybe PIT And MTL. The big under-achievers? CGY, COL, BUF, LA, DET (!!), NYI AND TOR.
Now, individuals obviously have some effect on SV% and SH% to a degree. Luongo, Regehr and Lidstrom will likely have a positive influence on a club's SV%. On the offensive side, Jarome Iginla and Sidney Crosby have the power to improve a club's SH% somewhat. Naturally, bad players will do the opposite.
Still...everything tends to gravitate to the mean in the end:
Overall, the effect is really startling...I’ve summarized the differences between the best 20 teams and the worst 20 teams in terms of the percentages for the first quarter and then the final three quarters. While there’s still some differences in the final three quarters, they’re much, much smaller.
This is good news for Flames fans. Calgary has one of the lowest PDO numbers in the league at 97.9, owing in part to Kippers limp start no doubt. Over the course of the season, we can probably expect the Flames to creep closer to the 100 mark - which, especially if they can keep up the SF/SA ration of 1.09, should result in some wins.
I find a look at individual PDO numbers helps to illustrate the sustainability (or lack) of certain numbers. Here are the Flames results so far:
Only three players hover above 100: Robyn Regehr (100.7), Andre Roy (101.2) and Curtis Glencross (103.3). Of the three, only Glencross' number seems unsustainably high, although one would think that Roy would be the type of guy to post lackluster percentages both ways (and so, is in line for a fall himself). Also: the SV% behind Regehr is ridiculous right now (94.5%), so expect that to fall a bit. Reggie is good - real good - but that's pretty inhuman, especially considering the quality of the competition he faces.
Which guys can we tab for a bound upwards? Dion Phaneuf (96.7), Mark Giordano (97), Brandon Prust (91.4), Wayne Primeau (95.4), Eric Nystrom (94) and...yes...Sore thumb (94.5).
Of course, some guys will be congenitally below or above average when it comes to either SV% and SH%. Bert, for instance, probably isn't going to have a massive swing upwards simply because he's not very good - he makes poor decisions with the puck and floats around the rink all game. Still, the club can't possibly continue to shoot at 5% while he's on the ice all year - that's absurdly low, even if you suck as much as Bert.
For a starker illustration, check out Boston's numbers. The teams SV% is 94.5! The lowest on-ice SV% of any player is 88.9% - and that's some unknown schlub who played maybe one game. In addition, 12 Bruins have on-ice SH% above 10. Only 2 Flames can make that claim. Now, Boston has some nice players and is playing well, but...really? I mean, are they really so much better than the Flames that half their line-up can drive percentages better than Calgary's entire roster?
Eh...probably not.
PS - Player #99 in the Flames link is the combination of Iginla, Cammalleri and Lombardi. Their corsi number is underwhelming (+8) while their PDO number is 109. Take from that what you will.
A PDO number is a team’s ES S% plus their ES SV%. The idea, and I know that this will make some people uptight, is that there’s a lack of sustainability in that number - if it’s high, it’s going to come down; if it’s low, it’s going to go back up.
"High" being above the mean (approx. 100) by a few ticks and "low" being below the mean by a few ticks. Over the long haul, things tend to correct themselves in the percentages area, as Tyler shows in his first table: big differences (+/- 3 either way) above or below 100 tend to regress or progress back towards the middle over time.
The big "over-achievers" thus far? VAN, BOS, NJ and maybe PIT And MTL. The big under-achievers? CGY, COL, BUF, LA, DET (!!), NYI AND TOR.
Now, individuals obviously have some effect on SV% and SH% to a degree. Luongo, Regehr and Lidstrom will likely have a positive influence on a club's SV%. On the offensive side, Jarome Iginla and Sidney Crosby have the power to improve a club's SH% somewhat. Naturally, bad players will do the opposite.
Still...everything tends to gravitate to the mean in the end:
Overall, the effect is really startling...I’ve summarized the differences between the best 20 teams and the worst 20 teams in terms of the percentages for the first quarter and then the final three quarters. While there’s still some differences in the final three quarters, they’re much, much smaller.
This is good news for Flames fans. Calgary has one of the lowest PDO numbers in the league at 97.9, owing in part to Kippers limp start no doubt. Over the course of the season, we can probably expect the Flames to creep closer to the 100 mark - which, especially if they can keep up the SF/SA ration of 1.09, should result in some wins.
I find a look at individual PDO numbers helps to illustrate the sustainability (or lack) of certain numbers. Here are the Flames results so far:
Only three players hover above 100: Robyn Regehr (100.7), Andre Roy (101.2) and Curtis Glencross (103.3). Of the three, only Glencross' number seems unsustainably high, although one would think that Roy would be the type of guy to post lackluster percentages both ways (and so, is in line for a fall himself). Also: the SV% behind Regehr is ridiculous right now (94.5%), so expect that to fall a bit. Reggie is good - real good - but that's pretty inhuman, especially considering the quality of the competition he faces.
Which guys can we tab for a bound upwards? Dion Phaneuf (96.7), Mark Giordano (97), Brandon Prust (91.4), Wayne Primeau (95.4), Eric Nystrom (94) and...yes...Sore thumb (94.5).
Of course, some guys will be congenitally below or above average when it comes to either SV% and SH%. Bert, for instance, probably isn't going to have a massive swing upwards simply because he's not very good - he makes poor decisions with the puck and floats around the rink all game. Still, the club can't possibly continue to shoot at 5% while he's on the ice all year - that's absurdly low, even if you suck as much as Bert.
For a starker illustration, check out Boston's numbers. The teams SV% is 94.5! The lowest on-ice SV% of any player is 88.9% - and that's some unknown schlub who played maybe one game. In addition, 12 Bruins have on-ice SH% above 10. Only 2 Flames can make that claim. Now, Boston has some nice players and is playing well, but...really? I mean, are they really so much better than the Flames that half their line-up can drive percentages better than Calgary's entire roster?
Eh...probably not.
PS - Player #99 in the Flames link is the combination of Iginla, Cammalleri and Lombardi. Their corsi number is underwhelming (+8) while their PDO number is 109. Take from that what you will.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Gameday: A scummy rematch
Lots of good vibes after the glorious victory on Thursday, although I think I would caution against getting too high after that one. The Flames played well enough to win for sure, but to my eye that was one of those "coulda gone either way" games. The bounces favored the Flames over the course of the night (they were "more opportunistic" to put it into MSM speech) and that's probably the primary reason they came out with the W.
I've liked the new first line since it's inception, although, again, optimism should be tempered. Despite scoring 3 of the Flames 4 goals they were actually out-played at ES by the Kesler trio last game. No real shame in that, Kelser/Burrows/Hansen have been excellent this year, but the fact remains Cammalleri's three shot/three goal performance was as fortunate as it was impressive.
Best thing about the corsi figures? The Sedins drowning and Bertuzzi/Langkow/Bourque with their heads above water. As mentioned, AV targeted the second line earlier on with the Sedin twins and Keenan countered by substituting Bourque for Moss (something Charlie Simmer pointed out, actually. It's been quite the red letter week for Black Swans). Although the twins did end up scoring, the possession numbers are pretty favorable for Calgary. Which is encouraging, because Daniel and Henrik are as good as they are grotesque.
That said, it'll be interesting to see what Keenan does with last change tonight. Does he try to get Jarome away from Kesler et al? Will Bourque stay with the second line to continue the sheltering of Sore Thumb or will that be unnecessary now that the team is at home?
Also, does anyone else regard the Aucoin/Regehr pairing as a ticking time bomb? I mean, it's worked so far but my faith in Aucoin being able to capably shut-down the big guns is still pretty shaky. Regehr has been fantastic as usual and could probably play with just about anyone, but...
Also, I haven't decided if the Sarich demotion is a Sarich thing or a Pardy thing. Is Cory on the third pairing to cover for the kid or is he there because Keenan thinks he's been lousy so far? We may have to wait for Vandermeer to get back into the line-up to find out. If Aucoin sticks to Reggie when Vandermeer is back in, we can safely assume that Sarich is in the dog house.
Prediction - Flames take it in overtime. Calgary 2, Vancouver 1. Moss and Lombardi for the Flames. Wellwood for the Canucks.
Go Flames!
PS - A quick reminder that Matt and I will be at Schanks North next Friday to take in the Oilers/Flames double header. Come one, come all!
I've liked the new first line since it's inception, although, again, optimism should be tempered. Despite scoring 3 of the Flames 4 goals they were actually out-played at ES by the Kesler trio last game. No real shame in that, Kelser/Burrows/Hansen have been excellent this year, but the fact remains Cammalleri's three shot/three goal performance was as fortunate as it was impressive.
Best thing about the corsi figures? The Sedins drowning and Bertuzzi/Langkow/Bourque with their heads above water. As mentioned, AV targeted the second line earlier on with the Sedin twins and Keenan countered by substituting Bourque for Moss (something Charlie Simmer pointed out, actually. It's been quite the red letter week for Black Swans). Although the twins did end up scoring, the possession numbers are pretty favorable for Calgary. Which is encouraging, because Daniel and Henrik are as good as they are grotesque.
That said, it'll be interesting to see what Keenan does with last change tonight. Does he try to get Jarome away from Kesler et al? Will Bourque stay with the second line to continue the sheltering of Sore Thumb or will that be unnecessary now that the team is at home?
Also, does anyone else regard the Aucoin/Regehr pairing as a ticking time bomb? I mean, it's worked so far but my faith in Aucoin being able to capably shut-down the big guns is still pretty shaky. Regehr has been fantastic as usual and could probably play with just about anyone, but...
Also, I haven't decided if the Sarich demotion is a Sarich thing or a Pardy thing. Is Cory on the third pairing to cover for the kid or is he there because Keenan thinks he's been lousy so far? We may have to wait for Vandermeer to get back into the line-up to find out. If Aucoin sticks to Reggie when Vandermeer is back in, we can safely assume that Sarich is in the dog house.
Prediction - Flames take it in overtime. Calgary 2, Vancouver 1. Moss and Lombardi for the Flames. Wellwood for the Canucks.
Go Flames!
PS - A quick reminder that Matt and I will be at Schanks North next Friday to take in the Oilers/Flames double header. Come one, come all!
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Glencross'd lovers
Dear Kevin Lowe...
Thanks for not re-signing Curtis Glencross.
Sincerely,
Flames fans
Thanks for not re-signing Curtis Glencross.
Sincerely,
Flames fans
Gameday: those scummy Canucks
The Canucks are to the Flames what the Flames are to the Avalanche: anathema. Vancouver bootf***ed Calgary to start the year and are 8-0-2 in their last 10.
The loss of Luongo should conceivably be a major blow, but The Sedins and co. have rolled right along since he went down. Demitra is back in the line-up and playing like he did as a King, while Kesler keeps getting better on that dastardly shut-down line they have.
Calgary has vacillated between a couple of extremes recently. They beat the crap out of the weaker sisters (Avs, Leafs, Kings) and then in turn bend over for the elites (Chicago, San Jose, Detroit). Vancouver is much more the latter than the former, so don't be surprised to witness another tail-between-the-legs nose-rapping.
More bad news: Boyd is out with the dreaded "upper body injury", while Wayne Primeau is questionable for some unknown reason. The resultant lines are:
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Iginla
Bert-Langkow-Moss
Glencross-Conroy-Bourque
Nystrom-Prust-Roy (Yech!)
I imagine AV will send Kelser out against Iginla and then try to exploit one of the other lines with the Sedins. Im confident the third line can hold their own, but that second trio makes me nervous some reason (give you hint...it's big...it's missing some teeth...)
The Flames fourth line has gone from capable to ghastly (assuming Primeau misses the match) and I wouldn't bet on them getting more than 5 minutes of ice time. If that.
Anyways, Go Flames and all that. My hopes aren't high, given our recent history against these guys; a close loss would represent a baby-step forward.
Prediction - Vancouver 3 Calgary 2. Burrows, Salo and Sedin (either one) for the Canucks. Glencross and Lombardi for the Flames.
The loss of Luongo should conceivably be a major blow, but The Sedins and co. have rolled right along since he went down. Demitra is back in the line-up and playing like he did as a King, while Kesler keeps getting better on that dastardly shut-down line they have.
Calgary has vacillated between a couple of extremes recently. They beat the crap out of the weaker sisters (Avs, Leafs, Kings) and then in turn bend over for the elites (Chicago, San Jose, Detroit). Vancouver is much more the latter than the former, so don't be surprised to witness another tail-between-the-legs nose-rapping.
More bad news: Boyd is out with the dreaded "upper body injury", while Wayne Primeau is questionable for some unknown reason. The resultant lines are:
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Iginla
Bert-Langkow-Moss
Glencross-Conroy-Bourque
Nystrom-Prust-Roy (Yech!)
I imagine AV will send Kelser out against Iginla and then try to exploit one of the other lines with the Sedins. Im confident the third line can hold their own, but that second trio makes me nervous some reason (give you hint...it's big...it's missing some teeth...)
The Flames fourth line has gone from capable to ghastly (assuming Primeau misses the match) and I wouldn't bet on them getting more than 5 minutes of ice time. If that.
Anyways, Go Flames and all that. My hopes aren't high, given our recent history against these guys; a close loss would represent a baby-step forward.
Prediction - Vancouver 3 Calgary 2. Burrows, Salo and Sedin (either one) for the Canucks. Glencross and Lombardi for the Flames.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Regicide
I got see the new lines up close and personal last night thanks to the generosity of Walk Invisible, who happened to have an extra ticket to the game. We ate pocket dogs and rained both compliments and insults on the players all night. Good times.
Anyways, I mostly liked what I saw...not only because the new combos seemed to click, but because Keenan has seemingly caught on to the fact that Bertuzzi shouldn't play with Iginla and needs to be sheltered. The big guy got all of 9 minutes at ES and was frequently sent out against the lesser lights while Jarome's new line took on the big boys (Kopitar et al).
Here's how the corsi numbers came out. As you'll see, Bert still struggled (which matches to what I saw) to be effective, despite the reduced role. In fact, he, Boyd and Langkow ended up with the worst cumulative shots +/- on the team.
Watching Bertuzzi last night and looking at the numbers this morning brings to mind a particular Simpsons episode where Mr. Burns is searching for an heir. At one point, Smithers insinuates that perhaps HE should be the one to inherit Burns' fortune when the old man dies. To which Burns replies:
You, Smithers? Oh no, my dear friend. I've planned a far greater reward for you. When I pass on, you shall be buried alive with me. [Opens a miniature coffin containing dead Burns and aghast Smithers]
Bertuzzi is Mr.Burns; he's going to bury alive those unfortunates who are stuck with him. Last night, it was Langkow and Boyd. And I think that's how this merry-go-round is going to proceed all season. A never-ending quest to find ways to conceal the big man at even-strength. Searching for the best method to minimize the damage. Which means one of the big guns is going to be crammed in the coffin with him: for awhile it was Jarome, but the cruel hand of Keenan might just settle on Langkow after this. Bad news for those of you that own him in fantasy pools.
Speaking of fantasy pools: Rene Bourque, Matthew Lombardi and Curtis Glencross might be steals for some of you in deeper leagues. The former because he might end up with Jarome at even-strength (while Langkow gets buried alive) and the other two because they seem to be doing good work on whatever line they land on. Heck, they are currently 1/2 on the Flames in terms of ESP/60.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Interesting interview with Jim Playfair after the game, where the hot-stovers grilled him about some issues that are near and to dear to my heart.
- The recent success of Conroy was mentioned, to which Playfair pulled out this bon mot: "Conroy is a lot more comfortable not carrying Jarome's clubs around the ice" (or something very near it). Yes! YES! A thousand times yes.
- Giordano was brought up (24 minutes of ice) and Playfair explained that some of his early defensive struggles were habits formed in Russia. Apparently, they employed a highly aggressive gameplan that saw blueliners rushing full-bore at the opposition in the neutral zone. Playfair added that Gio has begun to shake that habit, leading to more ice-time. Also said he's probably one of the best in the league at walking the offensive blueline.
- Penalties and discipline were mentioned as well, in light of the numerous power plays against the Kings. Playfair said the team has adjusted ice management by the forwards on the forecheck so that back-checkers aren't chasing the bad guys
as much. He was also in the paper the other day stressing that the Flames want a positive penalty differential going forward.
- Rob Kerr brought up the fact that the Flames blocked the least amount of shots in the NHL through the first twenty games. Playfair explained that the strategy has always been to "seal out" the opposition so that Kipper can have a clear view of the shot. Apparently, the coaching staff has been re-evaluating that strategy in light of the pounding at the hands of the Sharks; a game in where a lot of point shots got through and created havoc around the crease. There's a new emphasis on stuffing passing/shooting lanes in the defensive zone as a result. In addition, Kipper has apparently given the skaters the green light to step in front of wrist shots. It'll be interesting to see if the block numbers go up from here on in...
UPDATE - corsi link fixed.
Anyways, I mostly liked what I saw...not only because the new combos seemed to click, but because Keenan has seemingly caught on to the fact that Bertuzzi shouldn't play with Iginla and needs to be sheltered. The big guy got all of 9 minutes at ES and was frequently sent out against the lesser lights while Jarome's new line took on the big boys (Kopitar et al).
Here's how the corsi numbers came out. As you'll see, Bert still struggled (which matches to what I saw) to be effective, despite the reduced role. In fact, he, Boyd and Langkow ended up with the worst cumulative shots +/- on the team.
Watching Bertuzzi last night and looking at the numbers this morning brings to mind a particular Simpsons episode where Mr. Burns is searching for an heir. At one point, Smithers insinuates that perhaps HE should be the one to inherit Burns' fortune when the old man dies. To which Burns replies:
You, Smithers? Oh no, my dear friend. I've planned a far greater reward for you. When I pass on, you shall be buried alive with me. [Opens a miniature coffin containing dead Burns and aghast Smithers]
Bertuzzi is Mr.Burns; he's going to bury alive those unfortunates who are stuck with him. Last night, it was Langkow and Boyd. And I think that's how this merry-go-round is going to proceed all season. A never-ending quest to find ways to conceal the big man at even-strength. Searching for the best method to minimize the damage. Which means one of the big guns is going to be crammed in the coffin with him: for awhile it was Jarome, but the cruel hand of Keenan might just settle on Langkow after this. Bad news for those of you that own him in fantasy pools.
Speaking of fantasy pools: Rene Bourque, Matthew Lombardi and Curtis Glencross might be steals for some of you in deeper leagues. The former because he might end up with Jarome at even-strength (while Langkow gets buried alive) and the other two because they seem to be doing good work on whatever line they land on. Heck, they are currently 1/2 on the Flames in terms of ESP/60.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Interesting interview with Jim Playfair after the game, where the hot-stovers grilled him about some issues that are near and to dear to my heart.
- The recent success of Conroy was mentioned, to which Playfair pulled out this bon mot: "Conroy is a lot more comfortable not carrying Jarome's clubs around the ice" (or something very near it). Yes! YES! A thousand times yes.
- Giordano was brought up (24 minutes of ice) and Playfair explained that some of his early defensive struggles were habits formed in Russia. Apparently, they employed a highly aggressive gameplan that saw blueliners rushing full-bore at the opposition in the neutral zone. Playfair added that Gio has begun to shake that habit, leading to more ice-time. Also said he's probably one of the best in the league at walking the offensive blueline.
- Penalties and discipline were mentioned as well, in light of the numerous power plays against the Kings. Playfair said the team has adjusted ice management by the forwards on the forecheck so that back-checkers aren't chasing the bad guys
as much. He was also in the paper the other day stressing that the Flames want a positive penalty differential going forward.
- Rob Kerr brought up the fact that the Flames blocked the least amount of shots in the NHL through the first twenty games. Playfair explained that the strategy has always been to "seal out" the opposition so that Kipper can have a clear view of the shot. Apparently, the coaching staff has been re-evaluating that strategy in light of the pounding at the hands of the Sharks; a game in where a lot of point shots got through and created havoc around the crease. There's a new emphasis on stuffing passing/shooting lanes in the defensive zone as a result. In addition, Kipper has apparently given the skaters the green light to step in front of wrist shots. It'll be interesting to see if the block numbers go up from here on in...
UPDATE - corsi link fixed.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Gameday - Flames and Kings
Although not exactly tearing up the charts, the Kings aren't really the league's punching bags anymore. They actually have a better GD than the Flames at 5on5 and are getting capable goaltending from Erik Ersberg.
They aren't world beaters either, so this is obviously a winnable game for Calgary. No word on what the line combos will be for tonight, although I'm sure we'll see the Iginla/Bert coupling persist. Boooooo...
Conroy was quoted in the paper today, something to the tune of "Iginla's had a great start and all you hear is how he's off. He's 8th in the league in scoring but they always want more." (paraphrased).
Now, Conroy might just be defending his friend and captain. If so, fair enough.
If he's sincere, though, it shows how even players themselves don't understand that production is highly influenced by circumstance and opportunity.
Iginla's gross production is pretty good, but his scoring rate at ES is mediocre in an absolute sense and terrible relative to his prior two seasons. Iginla is currently 6th in the league in terms of ES ice time per game and second in the league in terms of PP ice per game* (behind only Evgeni Malkin).
*(Bertuzzi is third!!!)
He's getting scored on a lot too.
So, yeah, Jarome has 24 points - but that has a lot to do with his mounds and mounds of ice time. He's also a negative player, one year removed from being one of the most dominant ES forwards in the Western Conference. There's absolutely no question that Jarome has to improve going forward, Conroy's protests to the contrary aside.
Prediction - Calgary 3, Kings 2. Boyd, Giordano and Langkow for the Flames. Kopitar and Brown for the Kings.
Go Flames!
Update - Looks like Lombo and Cammalleri have drawn the Iginla lottery ball, dropping Langkow with Bertuzzi and Boyd. That leaves Bourque with Conroy and Glencross and demotes Moss to play with the pluggers.
Assuming these lines stay relatively firm , who takes on Kopitar tonight then? Conroy? What I do like about the practice set-up is the potential for Cammalleri to get more ice, since I think he's been under utilitzed so far.
They aren't world beaters either, so this is obviously a winnable game for Calgary. No word on what the line combos will be for tonight, although I'm sure we'll see the Iginla/Bert coupling persist. Boooooo...
Conroy was quoted in the paper today, something to the tune of "Iginla's had a great start and all you hear is how he's off. He's 8th in the league in scoring but they always want more." (paraphrased).
Now, Conroy might just be defending his friend and captain. If so, fair enough.
If he's sincere, though, it shows how even players themselves don't understand that production is highly influenced by circumstance and opportunity.
Iginla's gross production is pretty good, but his scoring rate at ES is mediocre in an absolute sense and terrible relative to his prior two seasons. Iginla is currently 6th in the league in terms of ES ice time per game and second in the league in terms of PP ice per game* (behind only Evgeni Malkin).
*(Bertuzzi is third!!!)
He's getting scored on a lot too.
So, yeah, Jarome has 24 points - but that has a lot to do with his mounds and mounds of ice time. He's also a negative player, one year removed from being one of the most dominant ES forwards in the Western Conference. There's absolutely no question that Jarome has to improve going forward, Conroy's protests to the contrary aside.
Prediction - Calgary 3, Kings 2. Boyd, Giordano and Langkow for the Flames. Kopitar and Brown for the Kings.
Go Flames!
Update - Looks like Lombo and Cammalleri have drawn the Iginla lottery ball, dropping Langkow with Bertuzzi and Boyd. That leaves Bourque with Conroy and Glencross and demotes Moss to play with the pluggers.
Assuming these lines stay relatively firm , who takes on Kopitar tonight then? Conroy? What I do like about the practice set-up is the potential for Cammalleri to get more ice, since I think he's been under utilitzed so far.
First Quarter Impressions
I gave the Flames their first quarter overview a little while ago, so now it's the rest of the league's turn.
Here, in no particular order, are things that have struck me so far.
- The San Jose Sharks are just rolling over people. It's absurd. They have a cap ceiling roster, but could probably shed one or both of Milan Michalek (4.33M) and Jonathan Cheechoo (3M) without too many problems.
That said, the Sharks are on pace to have a GD above +100 and 140 points. A slow down is inevitable.
- Speaking of which, Shea Weber has 10 goals and 21 points through his first 20 games. His ESP/60 rate is better than most forwards and ESG/60 rate is higher than most defensemens total scoring rate. His SH% is currently 14.7, which puts him in Jarome Iginla territory. He's currently on pace to score 40 goals and 84 points.
That's incredible. But, unless Weber's the next Paul Coffey, expect him to hit a wall eventually.
- The Avalanche are awful. I picked them to do well this season, but without Sakic in the line-up, they have nothing below their top line. I missed the boat completely on that one.
- A lot of people are puzzled by the current struggles of the Montreal Canadiens, but it's not that surprising. The coins all landed on heads for them last year: a bunch of their forwards, from Kovalev on down, had top notch (15% or higher) shooting percentages (Kostitsyn X2, Plekanec), for example. Hell, even Markov was humming along at an 11% clip.
I think they're a pretty good team and should break out of the offensive problems soon (the additions of Tanguay and Lang certainly help that roster), but Kovalev isn't a really an 84 point player and Plekanec isn't really a 30 goal scorer. They're aren't the offensive juggernaut they're output from last year would suggest, to put it another way.
- Lots of people are talking about Kris Versteeg and Derek Brassard (for good reason). One under the radar rookie to watch is the Blues Patrik Berglund. The big Swede has had his ice-time carefully managed through the first bit here and he's put up eye-popping underlying numbers as a result. He's also a kid that put up big numbers against men for Vasteras in Sweden last year (21 goals, 45 points in 36 games) so the talent is there.
The talk was Berglund would be getting a bump in ice and opportunity with the Andy McDonald injury until he went down with some ailment himself. Still, definitely a guy to keep an eye on when he gets back into the line-up.
- Vancouver is the best team in the NW based on the first 20 games. It really pains me to say that. The Sedins are again full value, but the emergence of the Kesler/Burrows/Hansen trio as a viable ES unit has really solidified things up front. Those guys take on the big boys every night and keep their heads above water.
Im sure the Luongo injury is going to cause problems, but I dont think it will be a death blow. Damn it!
- I chose Alexander Semin in the middle rounds of both my keeper pools this year. And while I expect his rates to fall when he gets back from injury, HAHAHA all the same.
- I wonder if anyone else has noticed that Joey MacDonald somehow has 9 wins and is 15th in the league with a .912 SV%? I mean...really? The guy is 28 and had played a grand total of 17 NHL games before this.
- Will Marian Gaborik for Jay Bouwmeester happen this year? That swap seems to make sense, although the Wild will probably need to get a top 6 forward or two when they move Gabbers. Mikko Koivu is good, but he can't do it all.
- The Blackhawks look like the real deal to me. They're fast and capable with the puck. Hell, Toews has yet to really get going and they have $6M needlessly tied up in goaltending, but they still have the third most goals in the league. Once one or both of those things resolve themselves, they should be even better. Not quite elite yet, but miles ahead of where they were a couple of years ago.
- The Dallas Stars are brutal. Like Montreal, a lot of things went right for Dallas last year (Hagman, Ribeiro, rookie d-men playing like vets) and the pendulum has completely swung the other way.
It's not just luck though: their decent depth players were pillaged over the summer (Hagman, Miettinen, Jokinen) and replaced with douchebags (Avery) or big gambles (Brunnstrom). They have nearly 8M mis-allocated in Mike Richards and Smith is busy stopping 93% of the shots he sees in Tampa while Turco sinks into the swamp in Dallas.
Now with Ott and Morrow down for the count, I can't see them making climbing out of the considerable hoel they've dug. Turco can't continue to be this bad all year, but even a return to form by him won't be enough to save this lame horse.
Here, in no particular order, are things that have struck me so far.
- The San Jose Sharks are just rolling over people. It's absurd. They have a cap ceiling roster, but could probably shed one or both of Milan Michalek (4.33M) and Jonathan Cheechoo (3M) without too many problems.
That said, the Sharks are on pace to have a GD above +100 and 140 points. A slow down is inevitable.
- Speaking of which, Shea Weber has 10 goals and 21 points through his first 20 games. His ESP/60 rate is better than most forwards and ESG/60 rate is higher than most defensemens total scoring rate. His SH% is currently 14.7, which puts him in Jarome Iginla territory. He's currently on pace to score 40 goals and 84 points.
That's incredible. But, unless Weber's the next Paul Coffey, expect him to hit a wall eventually.
- The Avalanche are awful. I picked them to do well this season, but without Sakic in the line-up, they have nothing below their top line. I missed the boat completely on that one.
- A lot of people are puzzled by the current struggles of the Montreal Canadiens, but it's not that surprising. The coins all landed on heads for them last year: a bunch of their forwards, from Kovalev on down, had top notch (15% or higher) shooting percentages (Kostitsyn X2, Plekanec), for example. Hell, even Markov was humming along at an 11% clip.
I think they're a pretty good team and should break out of the offensive problems soon (the additions of Tanguay and Lang certainly help that roster), but Kovalev isn't a really an 84 point player and Plekanec isn't really a 30 goal scorer. They're aren't the offensive juggernaut they're output from last year would suggest, to put it another way.
- Lots of people are talking about Kris Versteeg and Derek Brassard (for good reason). One under the radar rookie to watch is the Blues Patrik Berglund. The big Swede has had his ice-time carefully managed through the first bit here and he's put up eye-popping underlying numbers as a result. He's also a kid that put up big numbers against men for Vasteras in Sweden last year (21 goals, 45 points in 36 games) so the talent is there.
The talk was Berglund would be getting a bump in ice and opportunity with the Andy McDonald injury until he went down with some ailment himself. Still, definitely a guy to keep an eye on when he gets back into the line-up.
- Vancouver is the best team in the NW based on the first 20 games. It really pains me to say that. The Sedins are again full value, but the emergence of the Kesler/Burrows/Hansen trio as a viable ES unit has really solidified things up front. Those guys take on the big boys every night and keep their heads above water.
Im sure the Luongo injury is going to cause problems, but I dont think it will be a death blow. Damn it!
- I chose Alexander Semin in the middle rounds of both my keeper pools this year. And while I expect his rates to fall when he gets back from injury, HAHAHA all the same.
- I wonder if anyone else has noticed that Joey MacDonald somehow has 9 wins and is 15th in the league with a .912 SV%? I mean...really? The guy is 28 and had played a grand total of 17 NHL games before this.
- Will Marian Gaborik for Jay Bouwmeester happen this year? That swap seems to make sense, although the Wild will probably need to get a top 6 forward or two when they move Gabbers. Mikko Koivu is good, but he can't do it all.
- The Blackhawks look like the real deal to me. They're fast and capable with the puck. Hell, Toews has yet to really get going and they have $6M needlessly tied up in goaltending, but they still have the third most goals in the league. Once one or both of those things resolve themselves, they should be even better. Not quite elite yet, but miles ahead of where they were a couple of years ago.
- The Dallas Stars are brutal. Like Montreal, a lot of things went right for Dallas last year (Hagman, Ribeiro, rookie d-men playing like vets) and the pendulum has completely swung the other way.
It's not just luck though: their decent depth players were pillaged over the summer (Hagman, Miettinen, Jokinen) and replaced with douchebags (Avery) or big gambles (Brunnstrom). They have nearly 8M mis-allocated in Mike Richards and Smith is busy stopping 93% of the shots he sees in Tampa while Turco sinks into the swamp in Dallas.
Now with Ott and Morrow down for the count, I can't see them making climbing out of the considerable hoel they've dug. Turco can't continue to be this bad all year, but even a return to form by him won't be enough to save this lame horse.
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