Gameday: A scummy rematch

Lots of good vibes after the glorious victory on Thursday, although I think I would caution against getting too high after that one. The Flames played well enough to win for sure, but to my eye that was one of those "coulda gone either way" games. The bounces favored the Flames over the course of the night (they were "more opportunistic" to put it into MSM speech) and that's probably the primary reason they came out with the W.

I've liked the new first line since it's inception, although, again, optimism should be tempered. Despite scoring 3 of the Flames 4 goals they were actually out-played at ES by the Kesler trio last game. No real shame in that, Kelser/Burrows/Hansen have been excellent this year, but the fact remains Cammalleri's three shot/three goal performance was as fortunate as it was impressive.

Best thing about the corsi figures? The Sedins drowning and Bertuzzi/Langkow/Bourque with their heads above water. As mentioned, AV targeted the second line earlier on with the Sedin twins and Keenan countered by substituting Bourque for Moss (something Charlie Simmer pointed out, actually. It's been quite the red letter week for Black Swans). Although the twins did end up scoring, the possession numbers are pretty favorable for Calgary. Which is encouraging, because Daniel and Henrik are as good as they are grotesque.


That said, it'll be interesting to see what Keenan does with last change tonight. Does he try to get Jarome away from Kesler et al? Will Bourque stay with the second line to continue the sheltering of Sore Thumb or will that be unnecessary now that the team is at home?

Also, does anyone else regard the Aucoin/Regehr pairing as a ticking time bomb? I mean, it's worked so far but my faith in Aucoin being able to capably shut-down the big guns is still pretty shaky. Regehr has been fantastic as usual and could probably play with just about anyone, but...

Also, I haven't decided if the Sarich demotion is a Sarich thing or a Pardy thing. Is Cory on the third pairing to cover for the kid or is he there because Keenan thinks he's been lousy so far? We may have to wait for Vandermeer to get back into the line-up to find out. If Aucoin sticks to Reggie when Vandermeer is back in, we can safely assume that Sarich is in the dog house.

Prediction - Flames take it in overtime. Calgary 2, Vancouver 1. Moss and Lombardi for the Flames. Wellwood for the Canucks.

Go Flames!

PS - A quick reminder that Matt and I will be at Schanks North next Friday to take in the Oilers/Flames double header. Come one, come all!

Glencross'd lovers

Dear Kevin Lowe...

Thanks for not re-signing Curtis Glencross.

Sincerely,

Flames fans

Gameday: those scummy Canucks

The Canucks are to the Flames what the Flames are to the Avalanche: anathema. Vancouver bootf***ed Calgary to start the year and are 8-0-2 in their last 10.

The loss of Luongo should conceivably be a major blow, but The Sedins and co. have rolled right along since he went down. Demitra is back in the line-up and playing like he did as a King, while Kesler keeps getting better on that dastardly shut-down line they have.

Calgary has vacillated between a couple of extremes recently. They beat the crap out of the weaker sisters (Avs, Leafs, Kings) and then in turn bend over for the elites (Chicago, San Jose, Detroit). Vancouver is much more the latter than the former, so don't be surprised to witness another tail-between-the-legs nose-rapping.

More bad news: Boyd is out with the dreaded "upper body injury", while Wayne Primeau is questionable for some unknown reason. The resultant lines are:

Cammalleri-Lombardi-Iginla
Bert-Langkow-Moss
Glencross-Conroy-Bourque
Nystrom-Prust-Roy (Yech!)

I imagine AV will send Kelser out against Iginla and then try to exploit one of the other lines with the Sedins. Im confident the third line can hold their own, but that second trio makes me nervous some reason (give you hint...it's big...it's missing some teeth...)

The Flames fourth line has gone from capable to ghastly (assuming Primeau misses the match) and I wouldn't bet on them getting more than 5 minutes of ice time. If that.

Anyways, Go Flames and all that. My hopes aren't high, given our recent history against these guys; a close loss would represent a baby-step forward.

Prediction - Vancouver 3 Calgary 2. Burrows, Salo and Sedin (either one) for the Canucks. Glencross and Lombardi for the Flames.

Mark your calenders...

...David Hale scored tonight.

Something like this only happens once every 231 games.

Regicide

I got see the new lines up close and personal last night thanks to the generosity of Walk Invisible, who happened to have an extra ticket to the game. We ate pocket dogs and rained both compliments and insults on the players all night. Good times.

Anyways, I mostly liked what I saw...not only because the new combos seemed to click, but because Keenan has seemingly caught on to the fact that Bertuzzi shouldn't play with Iginla and needs to be sheltered. The big guy got all of 9 minutes at ES and was frequently sent out against the lesser lights while Jarome's new line took on the big boys (Kopitar et al).

Here's how the corsi numbers came out. As you'll see, Bert still struggled (which matches to what I saw) to be effective, despite the reduced role. In fact, he, Boyd and Langkow ended up with the worst cumulative shots +/- on the team.

Watching Bertuzzi last night and looking at the numbers this morning brings to mind a particular Simpsons episode where Mr. Burns is searching for an heir. At one point, Smithers insinuates that perhaps HE should be the one to inherit Burns' fortune when the old man dies. To which Burns replies:

You, Smithers? Oh no, my dear friend. I've planned a far greater reward for you. When I pass on, you shall be buried alive with me. [Opens a miniature coffin containing dead Burns and aghast Smithers]

Bertuzzi is Mr.Burns; he's going to bury alive those unfortunates who are stuck with him. Last night, it was Langkow and Boyd. And I think that's how this merry-go-round is going to proceed all season. A never-ending quest to find ways to conceal the big man at even-strength. Searching for the best method to minimize the damage. Which means one of the big guns is going to be crammed in the coffin with him: for awhile it was Jarome, but the cruel hand of Keenan might just settle on Langkow after this. Bad news for those of you that own him in fantasy pools.

Speaking of fantasy pools: Rene Bourque, Matthew Lombardi and Curtis Glencross might be steals for some of you in deeper leagues. The former because he might end up with Jarome at even-strength (while Langkow gets buried alive) and the other two because they seem to be doing good work on whatever line they land on. Heck, they are currently 1/2 on the Flames in terms of ESP/60.

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Interesting interview with Jim Playfair after the game, where the hot-stovers grilled him about some issues that are near and to dear to my heart.

- The recent success of Conroy was mentioned, to which Playfair pulled out this bon mot: "Conroy is a lot more comfortable not carrying Jarome's clubs around the ice" (or something very near it). Yes! YES! A thousand times yes.

- Giordano was brought up (24 minutes of ice) and Playfair explained that some of his early defensive struggles were habits formed in Russia. Apparently, they employed a highly aggressive gameplan that saw blueliners rushing full-bore at the opposition in the neutral zone. Playfair added that Gio has begun to shake that habit, leading to more ice-time. Also said he's probably one of the best in the league at walking the offensive blueline.

- Penalties and discipline were mentioned as well, in light of the numerous power plays against the Kings. Playfair said the team has adjusted ice management by the forwards on the forecheck so that back-checkers aren't chasing the bad guys
as much. He was also in the paper the other day stressing that the Flames want a positive penalty differential going forward.

- Rob Kerr brought up the fact that the Flames blocked the least amount of shots in the NHL through the first twenty games. Playfair explained that the strategy has always been to "seal out" the opposition so that Kipper can have a clear view of the shot. Apparently, the coaching staff has been re-evaluating that strategy in light of the pounding at the hands of the Sharks; a game in where a lot of point shots got through and created havoc around the crease. There's a new emphasis on stuffing passing/shooting lanes in the defensive zone as a result. In addition, Kipper has apparently given the skaters the green light to step in front of wrist shots. It'll be interesting to see if the block numbers go up from here on in...

UPDATE - corsi link fixed.

Gameday - Flames and Kings

Although not exactly tearing up the charts, the Kings aren't really the league's punching bags anymore. They actually have a better GD than the Flames at 5on5 and are getting capable goaltending from Erik Ersberg.

They aren't world beaters either, so this is obviously a winnable game for Calgary. No word on what the line combos will be for tonight, although I'm sure we'll see the Iginla/Bert coupling persist. Boooooo...

Conroy was quoted in the paper today, something to the tune of "Iginla's had a great start and all you hear is how he's off. He's 8th in the league in scoring but they always want more." (paraphrased).

Now, Conroy might just be defending his friend and captain. If so, fair enough.

If he's sincere, though, it shows how even players themselves don't understand that production is highly influenced by circumstance and opportunity.

Iginla's gross production is pretty good, but his scoring rate at ES is mediocre in an absolute sense and terrible relative to his prior two seasons. Iginla is currently 6th in the league in terms of ES ice time per game and second in the league in terms of PP ice per game* (behind only Evgeni Malkin).

*(Bertuzzi is third!!!)

He's getting scored on a lot too.

So, yeah, Jarome has 24 points - but that has a lot to do with his mounds and mounds of ice time. He's also a negative player, one year removed from being one of the most dominant ES forwards in the Western Conference. There's absolutely no question that Jarome has to improve going forward, Conroy's protests to the contrary aside.

Prediction - Calgary 3, Kings 2. Boyd, Giordano and Langkow for the Flames. Kopitar and Brown for the Kings.

Go Flames!

Update - Looks like Lombo and Cammalleri have drawn the Iginla lottery ball, dropping Langkow with Bertuzzi and Boyd. That leaves Bourque with Conroy and Glencross and demotes Moss to play with the pluggers.

Assuming these lines stay relatively firm , who takes on Kopitar tonight then? Conroy? What I do like about the practice set-up is the potential for Cammalleri to get more ice, since I think he's been under utilitzed so far.

First Quarter Impressions

I gave the Flames their first quarter overview a little while ago, so now it's the rest of the league's turn.

Here, in no particular order, are things that have struck me so far.

- The San Jose Sharks are just rolling over people. It's absurd. They have a cap ceiling roster, but could probably shed one or both of Milan Michalek (4.33M) and Jonathan Cheechoo (3M) without too many problems.

That said, the Sharks are on pace to have a GD above +100 and 140 points. A slow down is inevitable.

- Speaking of which, Shea Weber has 10 goals and 21 points through his first 20 games. His ESP/60 rate is better than most forwards and ESG/60 rate is higher than most defensemens total scoring rate. His SH% is currently 14.7, which puts him in Jarome Iginla territory. He's currently on pace to score 40 goals and 84 points.

That's incredible. But, unless Weber's the next Paul Coffey, expect him to hit a wall eventually.

- The Avalanche are awful. I picked them to do well this season, but without Sakic in the line-up, they have nothing below their top line. I missed the boat completely on that one.

- A lot of people are puzzled by the current struggles of the Montreal Canadiens, but it's not that surprising. The coins all landed on heads for them last year: a bunch of their forwards, from Kovalev on down, had top notch (15% or higher) shooting percentages (Kostitsyn X2, Plekanec), for example. Hell, even Markov was humming along at an 11% clip.

I think they're a pretty good team and should break out of the offensive problems soon (the additions of Tanguay and Lang certainly help that roster), but Kovalev isn't a really an 84 point player and Plekanec isn't really a 30 goal scorer. They're aren't the offensive juggernaut they're output from last year would suggest, to put it another way.

- Lots of people are talking about Kris Versteeg and Derek Brassard (for good reason). One under the radar rookie to watch is the Blues Patrik Berglund. The big Swede has had his ice-time carefully managed through the first bit here and he's put up eye-popping underlying numbers as a result. He's also a kid that put up big numbers against men for Vasteras in Sweden last year (21 goals, 45 points in 36 games) so the talent is there.


The talk was Berglund would be getting a bump in ice and opportunity with the Andy McDonald injury until he went down with some ailment himself. Still, definitely a guy to keep an eye on when he gets back into the line-up.

- Vancouver is the best team in the NW based on the first 20 games. It really pains me to say that. The Sedins are again full value, but the emergence of the Kesler/Burrows/Hansen trio as a viable ES unit has really solidified things up front. Those guys take on the big boys every night and keep their heads above water.

Im sure the Luongo injury is going to cause problems, but I dont think it will be a death blow. Damn it!

- I chose Alexander Semin in the middle rounds of both my keeper pools this year. And while I expect his rates to fall when he gets back from injury, HAHAHA all the same.

- I wonder if anyone else has noticed that Joey MacDonald somehow has 9 wins and is 15th in the league with a .912 SV%? I mean...really? The guy is 28 and had played a grand total of 17 NHL games before this.

- Will Marian Gaborik for Jay Bouwmeester happen this year? That swap seems to make sense, although the Wild will probably need to get a top 6 forward or two when they move Gabbers. Mikko Koivu is good, but he can't do it all.

- The Blackhawks look like the real deal to me. They're fast and capable with the puck. Hell, Toews has yet to really get going and they have $6M needlessly tied up in goaltending, but they still have the third most goals in the league. Once one or both of those things resolve themselves, they should be even better. Not quite elite yet, but miles ahead of where they were a couple of years ago.

- The Dallas Stars are brutal. Like Montreal, a lot of things went right for Dallas last year (Hagman, Ribeiro, rookie d-men playing like vets) and the pendulum has completely swung the other way.

It's not just luck though: their decent depth players were pillaged over the summer (Hagman, Miettinen, Jokinen) and replaced with douchebags (Avery) or big gambles (Brunnstrom). They have nearly 8M mis-allocated in Mike Richards and Smith is busy stopping 93% of the shots he sees in Tampa while Turco sinks into the swamp in Dallas.

Now with Ott and Morrow down for the count, I can't see them making climbing out of the considerable hoel they've dug. Turco can't continue to be this bad all year, but even a return to form by him won't be enough to save this lame horse.

What to do with this Matthew Lombardi?

Now that Lombo has returned, probably the biggest question in Flames land is what will happen to the line combinations.

Some have worked. Some haven't. The problem is that Lombardi is a tweener who can't be confidently inserted into any particular role on the club. He could play in the top 6, but that would usurp either Langkow or Boyd. He could play on the third line, bumping Keenan favorite Conroy down. Or, he could play on the 4th line with Primeau and Nystrom (again) although I think all reasonable people can agree that would be a total waste.

The main onion in the ointment is the rapid development of Dustin Boyd. The kid has taken some sizable steps forward this season and is challenging for an expanded role. He has 7 ES points in 20 games; as many as Langkow and more than Todd Bertuzzi, despite less ice time and ostensibly inferior linemates. His ESG/60 rate is the best on the team (1.45) and his ESP number is third behind David Moss a Rene Bourque.

Boyd isn't really ready to take on the big boys since he still gets scored on a fair amount, but the arrows are certainly pointing in the right direction. Like Lombardi, Boyd would be wasted plugging along on the 4th line.

The other problem is, Keenan is still battling to cobble together a trio in the top 6 that can score against tough competition. The Iginla/Bertuzzi coupling is an unabashed failure and needs to be scrapped. Unfortunately, Lombardi's addition doesn't necessarily solve this problem - it just moves the pieces around.

That said, here's what I'd like to see going forward:

Bourque-Langkow-Iginla

This line should be able to do damage against anyone. Bourque has cement mits, but it's tough to argue that he hasn't been effective given his team high ESP/60 rate against top notch opposition and his 1.79 GA/60 figure.

Cammalleri-Boyd-Bertuzzi

This line should be reserved for offensive zone draws and soft competition. What we've learned so far about Bertuzzi is he has some soft hands, bad habits, floats a lot and takes stupid penalties. He'll need some extreme sheltering to get anything done at ES.

Glencross-Lombardi-Moss

Glencross and Moss have been good to very good so far this year. With Lombardi, this trio should not only be fast but capable at both ends of the ice.

Nystrom-Conroy-Primeau

Lots of stonehands on the 4th line, but it's not one that makes me nervous. Conroy has looked pretty good since being dropped from the top 6, so he still has something to give. Primeau and Nystrom have also been quantum leaps better than they were last year, although it's unlikely they'll ever outscore anyone. Still, this unit could should be able to play 10 minutes a night and minimize the damage.

One could probably swap Lombardi and Boyd in my hypothetical configuration without much problem, although I prefer the Lombo-centered third line because I trust him more in the defensive end and I'd prefer that unit to be able to take on just about anyone. I assume that whatever line Bertuzzi is on will have to get cherry assignments not to be under water, so Boyd might as well get a piece of the easy tail. If you wanted to argue that pairing Boyd with Bertuzzi is doubling up the liabilities on a single line, I'd be inclined to listen, but it also means you're sheltering one line, not two, when you sequester the problems together on a single unit.

What will probably happen:

Sore Thumb-Langkow-Iginla
Cammalleri-Boyd/Lombardi-Bourque
Glencross-Conroy-Moss
Nystrom/Prust-Boyd/Lombardi-Primeau

Be prepared to see one or both of Boyd and Lombardi jump around the line-up while Sore Thumb continues to tie a strong yet (apparently) invisible garrote wire of suck around Jarome Iginla's unfortunate neck.

2008 Grey Cup Champs

Congratulations to the Calgary Stampeders for claiming the 2008 and Grey Cup.

While this is good news for football fans, it may evoke fear and trembling in the hockey folk. As anyone who has lived in and around Calgary long enough knows, the Flames and Stampeders have never been good simultaneously.

Gameday - Flames Vs Red Wings

Tonight we get to see if the apparent gains made by the Flames the last two games are real or artifacts of playing the less-than-impressive Colorado Avalanche.

The Red Wings aren't the invulnerable machine they were last season, however: Chris Osgood is worst than ordinary so far, although the team in front of him has been able to out-score his terribleness most nights so far.

Im nervous about the Auoin/Regehr pairing tonight. It's worked alright, but if anyone is going to expose shinpad in his own end, it's the likes of Datsyuk/Hossa. I guess we'll see how it goes.

Prediction - None tonight.

Go Flames

The Bertuzzi dampening field

I mentioned Bert's various faults in the quarterpole post below this one. I also - in passing - dubbed his deleterious effect on Jarome Iginla as "Bertuzzi dampening field" in the comments over at BoA recently. I was half joking, but perhaps the concept bears further investigation.

The duo's corsi numbers when together are lackluster. We also know that neither is scoring much at ES (Bertuzzi less so that Jarome). But is Bert really a drag on Iginla or are both guys just under performing?

Well, thanks to hockeyanalysis.com, we can look at that very thing.

First ES GA for Jarome with/without Bertuzzi -



No big effects here. Bert gets scored a bit more on his own, while Iginla does slightly better away from Bert...but there's no significant differences.

Now ES GF for Jarome with/without Sore Thumb -



Here's where we see the "dampening field" come in to play. Together, the pair have played about 123 ES minutes and managed 3 goals - a measly 0.488 GF/20 rate (or 1.46/60). Alone, Iginla has played 165 minutes and managed 9 goals* for a robust 1.091 GF/20 efficiency (or 3.273) - that's better than double the Iggy+Bert rate. In fact the difference between the two is 0.603/20 or 1.809/60. Basically that means the team is losing about 0.603 goals for every 20 minute block Keenan plays Iginla with Bertuzzi.

Of course, Bertuzzi away from Iginla doesn't really fare any better. His rate goes down slighty to 0.437 GF/60. Meaning that - yes - he's probably the problem here.

These are relatively small sample sizes and if the two went on a sudden two week tear, the effects you see above could probably be canceled out. However, the contrasts are significant and sync up so completely with what I've seen on the ice that I think the best way to get Iggy going would be an extended vacation away from the 235 pound anchor.

An effective Jarome Iginla improves the Flames immeasurably. It should be Keenan's priority going forward to get the Captain back to his old dominating self again. Demoting the big man is a firm step in that direction, I think.

*(keep in mind, this measures the goal for by the team when the player(s) in question is on the ice, not the goals directly scored by said player(s)).

Flames at the Quarterpole

We're 20 games in now, so I figure it's time to sit down and assess what we really have on our hands with the Flames. While it's still early, with plenty of time for things to change (Ottawa was one of the best teams in the league at this point last year), there's enough data on the books to give us at least a rough idea of the characteristics and trends going forward - barring some steep reversal of fortune, naturally.

This is going to be a long post. Some of it may be of no interest to anyone but me. Fair warning.

The Record

Calgary is 11-8-1 through twenty. They're 4-4-0 within their division, although all four wins have come against the hapless Colorado Avalanche. The Flames have one of the worst road records in the div (4-6-0), but also one of the best home records (7-2-1). Calgary is nominally "4th" in the Western Conference, although the two other teams with 23 points have played 2 and 3 less games (Chicago, Minnesota) respectively.

Commenter Ngthagg mentioned yesterday that the playoff team/non-playoff team splits are less than complimentary so far:

Although the home/away split looks bad, I think the playoff team/non-playoff team looks even worse. Of course, that will likely change over time, but still, it's 2-6-1 vs. 8-2-0. The GD is even worse: +7/-14 home and away, but +11/-18 PO/NPO.

Including yesterday's win, the split is now 2-6-1 vs. 9-2-0. Meaning 9 of the Flames 11 wins have come against The Western Conferences bottom feeders, while 7 of the Calgary's 9 losses came at the hands of opponents the Flames will (ostensibly) be battling with for play-off position.

Goal differential - which is technically a better predictor of future success than raw record - isn't kind to the Flames either. As Ngthagg mentions, Calgary is in the red by 18 against the stronger clubs. Overall, The Flames have managed 57 GF and 63 GA for a GD of -6. That's the second worst figure of any of the WC teams currently in play-off position, ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers (-9). Most depressingly, even the St.Louis Blues (-5) Phoenix Coyotes (-2) and Los Angeles Kings (0) have slightly superior numbers.

What this suggests to me is: the Flames position in the standings is probably misleading. They've had a relatively easy schedule so far, with a full half of their games coming at home and 11 of 20 against the cellar dwellers. In addition, the fact that Calgary has played more games than nearly 70% of the Conference is further skewing things.

Standings in terms of WN%:

San Jose - 80%
Detroit - 72%
Minnesota - 65%
Vancouver - 60%
Calgary - 55%
Chicago - 50%
Anaheim - 50%
Nashville - 50%
--------------
Phoenix - 47%
Edmonton - 45%
Colorado - 44%
Los Angeles - 44%
Columbus - 42%
St.Louis - 38%
Dallas - 33%

Teams ranked by GD:

1.) San Jose (+24) (!)
2.) Vancouver (+14)
3.) Chicago (+14)
4.) Detroit (+13)
5.) Minnesota (+10)
6.) Los Angeles (0)
7.) Phoenix (-2)
8.) Anaheim (-3)
9.) St.Louis (-5)
10.) Nashville (-5)
11.) Calgary (-6)
12.) Columbus (-7)
13.) Colorado (-8)
14.) Edmonton (-9)
15.) Dallas (-17) (!)

The Flames have the 5th best Win % in the WC (that's good!) but only the 11th best GD (that's bad). Meaning they can scrape out wins, but tend to lose BIG when they lose. The former has been occuring against the Colorados and Nashvilles of the world, while the latter happens against clubs like San Jose and Chicago.

I find this worrisome, based on the favorable schedule. For example, Edmonton's numbers seem ugly, but they have played 14 of their first 20 games on the road this season, with 12 of the games coming against play-off caliber teams. They've probably done pretty well considering their shitty circumstances

I suppose the good news is the club has been full value for their last two victories, convincingly out-chancing and out-playing the opposition both times. The bad news is, the opposition was the Colorado Avalanche, whom are one of the worst teams in the WC so far. Calgary doesn't see Coloado again till January, with the intervening weeks filled with tougher opponents.

Even strength

So far the clubs most glaring weakness (besides goaltending). The results are pretty much right in line with my expectations heading into the season: improved bottom 6 with a less effective top 6.

Firstly, let's establish that it's certainly not all bad.

The Flames are averaging more shots on net per game than their opponents and tend to spend more time in the good end of the rink. According to Vics app, Calgary is a net +194 by the corsi metric through the first 20.

Driving the difference are many of the Flames "support players": youngsters like Dustin Boyd (+44) and David Moss (+63) have certainly taken steps forward, while additions such as Bourque (+53), Glencross (+43) and Giordano (+129!) are contributing as well. Even Primeau (+43) and Nystrom (+23) aren't terrible this year, which is saying something.

A lot of Calgary's lesser lights have decent advanced stats as a result. Boyd and Bourque are above the 2.00 ESP/60 threshold, although Boyd is still getting outscored at ES (while he may be a cause of such a thing, the SV% behind him has been a ghastly 0.881. The teams SH% while he's on the ice, on other hand, is a more sustainable 8.7% - at some point, then, Boyd should climb out of the red). Mark Giordano's 1.76 ESP/60 rate is outstanding for a defenseman while both David Moss and Curtis Glencross are more efficient at ES than Langkow and Bertuzzi so far.

So, the bottom end of the roster isn't getting torched anymore. And none of the results are lucky by my eye. Glencross, Moss, Boyd etc. are all good to varying degrees at moving the puck forward and keeping it in the offensive zone. They've been beating the crap out of other 3rd lines and such, which is something that hasn't happened in Calgary for a long time.

On the other hand, the top of the roster isn't beating up on people like they did previously. Quite the opposite. Iginla and crew are largely under-performing and are the primary reason the team is -7 at 5on5 right now.

The problem starts with one Todd Bertuzzi. The big guy scored some goals out of the gate, but has fallen away recently. He floats a lot at ES, and tends to make questionable decisions all over the ice, especially with the puck on his stick. His ESP/60 rate is worse than many so-called checkers (1.09) despite the fact that he's enjoyed the best quality of teammates on the club (0.45) so far. That latter figure matches up with what I've seen: Bert has spent a lot of time with either Iginla or Langkow (or both) and Cammalleri. He's been given the cherry assignment and done next to nothing with it. Oh yeah, no other Flames forward gets outscored as much as Bertuzzi as well.

Not that he's alone in his struggles. Jarome Iginla, despite leading the team in scoring, has taken two or three steps back at ES relative to last year. His scoring rate is pedestrian (1.98) and he hasn't even faced the big boys with regularity. Of his 11 goals, 9 have come through special circumstance (3 EN, 6 PP) while only 2 have come at 5on5. And while he's currently 7th in the league in scoring overall, his 11 ES points tie him for 21st in the league in that regard. To put that in context, Bryan Little, Nik Antropov and Jason Chimera have more points at ES than Jarome. Likely with less ice-time.

Daymond Lankgow has a nice corsi figure (+66), but his advanced stats are fairly pedestrian too. Partially because he's seen some of the tougher competition more consistently and partially because he's spent a lot of time with Bertuzzi. Of the three, his numbers are probably the most encouraging, especially the GAON/60 figure of 1.38. Although, the SV% behind him has been ridiculous (0.943), so take that with a grain of salt. I mean, I like Langkow and I think he can drive results, but I dont think he can augment SV% like that single-handed.

Cammalleri might have the best ES stats of the Flames legit "top 6 forwards". His 1.99 ESP/60 is the best of the bunch and he's outscored the bad guys so far (unlike Jarome and Bert). The funny part is, Cammalleri has been relatively under-utilized by Keenan at evens: he's currently 11th on the team in terms of ES ice-time per game (11:29), behind the likes of Iginla, Bertuzzi, Langkow and Bourque. While his PP ice is decent (over 4 minutes a game), flipping Bertuzzis ES ice (14:27) with Cammalleri's would probably be a net win for the Flames going forward.

Overall the results cleave with what many of us saw coming this summer. I went on record saying I expected the Flames to be less apt at even-strength and that's what's happened. I have been surprised, however, with the degree of improvement from guys like Moss and Boyd as well as the degree of decline from someone like Iginla. In the long-term, I expect Jarome to get back on track because he's simply to good to struggle to this degree forever. He currently looks like a periphery player on most nights to me: one who has trouble handling the puck in traffic (especially away from the boards) and making decisions in the neutral zone. He seems like a man aware of his futility and trying to fabricate a solution by playing outside of his typical skill-set. At some point he'll settle down, although a move away from Sore Thumb would probably help things along*. It's my hope that the return of Lombardi will shake Bert lose from the Iginla in some way, but I guess we'll see...

*(player #99 in the team-wide corsi/SV% link above is Jarome+Bertuzzi. Notice "he" has one of the worst corsi numbers on the team and lousy SV% and SH% besides. That experiment needs to end).

Special Teams

While extra curricular stuff is often harder to predict, some of the stuff I looked at in the off-season suggested the Flames would likely improve a man up or down this year.

So far, so good. Both the PP and PK are middling right now (19%, 81.6%) which is an improvement over last season. The PP was actually top ten for awhile before the recent cold snap. Bertuzzi, Iginla and Cammalleri aren't doing much at ES, but have made gotten some results 5on4, with all of them around 5 PPP/60 or better. One thing that needs to change going forward is the deployment of Adrian Aucoin on the primary PP unit. Shinpad has averaged more than 4 minutes a night, usually with guys like Phaneuf and Iginla, and his scoring rate is an abysmal 1.40 PPP/60. That's right - lower than Giordano's ESP/60 number.

Aucoin's problem are:

a.) He shoots pucks into blocks. A lot.

b.) He's not very mobile and only moderately able to keep pucks in/pinch.

c.) He's a gross liability if a capable PKer gets a step on him.

Giordano's rate is worse (0.96) but that has a lot to do with getting secondary minutes at the tail end of the advantage and often playing with the second unit (ie; lesser linemates). Given his superior ES efficacy, I'd like to see Gio get more time on the big unit. At the very least, it will mean less break-aways/penalty-shots going the wrong way.

On the PK, the Flames are getting good efforts from Regehr, Vandermeer, Primeau and - surprisingly - Dustin Boyd. His GAON/60 ate of 5.22 is second in terms of forwards to Prmeaus 3.89 (I know...I can't believe those numbers either). It'll be interesting to see if Boyd's regular PK duty continues when Lombardi returns.

One thing the Flames haven't done so far is reduce penalties against. Calgary has been short handed 98 times in 20 games this year, tied for 3rd in the league behind only Vancouver and Anaheim. As a result, their 15th ranked PK has actually surrendered the 6th most goals in the league (18), thanks to spending so much time in the box. If Calgary were down around the mean in terms of times short handed (87), they would have allowed 2 less goals against, assuming a constant 81.6% efficiency rate on the PK. Doesn't sound like much, but that's about 8 goals over the course of the entire year. Plus, keep in mind killing penalties not only increases the chances of a goal against, it suppresses offense as well.

So who's taking the penalties? So far, Adam Pardy (2.7), Craig Conroy (2.1), Corey Sarich (1.8), Curtis Glencross (1.7) and Todd Bertuzzi (1.7) are the leaders in terms of PN/60. Pardy is a kid and learning the ropes, Conroy will improve if he stays on the 3rd line, Sarich was the same last year (expect no improvement) and Bertuzzi does stupid shit and doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from the refs.

There are some guys drawing more penalties than they take, however. Cammalleri has the best differential (0.6 against, 2.3 for) with Iginla and Dustin Boyd right behind him. At least Jarome is getting SOMETHING done at ES.

Shot-blocking

Yup, Im still talking about this. In fact, some other, smarter people have started looking at this stuff too.

The Contrarian goaltender has a post on shots against, followed up by JLikens at the newly arrived Objective NHL blog. The latter looks specifically at the issue of shot blocking and it's effect on SV%.

Basically, it looks like shot-blocking and SV% are negatively correlated - meaning more blocks, smaller SV%. This could because of the potentially negative effects of blocking shots (deflections, screening, taking defensive players out of the play) or due simply to reducing the volume of shots on net (or a combination). The relationship isn't particularly strong, but it's persistently negative. The issue remains unsettled, clearly.

Anyways, forgetting all that for now, how are the Flames doing?

Calgary is currently 26th in the league in terms of blocked shots (90) ahead of only NYR, NJD, SJS and LAK. That's an average of about 4.5 BLK/game. Calgary's SA/G is 12th best in the league, at 29.6, meaning the club only manages to block about 13% (4.5/29.6 + 4.5) of the shots directed at the net per night. That's a fairly paltry number and difficult to excuse due to their 22nd ranked 3.15 GA/G rate.

Course, we still dont even know if blocking shots is a net benefit, so maybe Keenan's on to something?

Goaltending

Horrid to start...but getting...better? That's been the pattern the last few years, so perhaps it'll continue.

Kiprusoff still languishes near the leagues basement, but has had interludes of quality play now and then. The organizations reluctance to play MceLhinney is both ridiculous and baffling and needs to be given the heave-ho going forward. The kid just isn't that bad and playing Kipper into the ground isn't a viable strategy. Not only because it potentially harms the man, but it stunts the kids development as well.

Summary

Im happy with some things, particularly the zone time and the development of guys like Boyd, Moss, Giordano and Bourque, especially at ES. I think the special teams are better and may even be in line for further improvement, especially if the team can ratchet up the discipline.

The future success of the squad will depend on Kipper and Iginla improving, however. Calgary is above .500 currently, but the road gets a lot bumpier here pretty soon and they wont have the Avs and Preds to beat up on all season. Without a competent starter and a top line that's a legitimate threat, the efforts of the support players will only take the Flames so far.

Gameday: Mile high re-match

There have been multiple, competing narratives running through the Calgary Flames young season.

One of them is the domination of the Colorado Avalanche. The Flames took the first three matches of the year, including Tuesday's 4-1 curb-stomping.

Another is the team's futility away from home, a familiar theme to anyone that suffered through the Jim Playfair era. Thus far, Calgary is an ankle-grabbing 3-6-0 on the road - an away record that just happens to be the worst in the entire NW Division. During their last couple of excursions abroad, the local heroes have had their teeth kicked in, to the tune of being outscored 12-2.

So who shows up this evening? The Flames squad that embarrassed the Avalanche just two nights ago or the team that fell to the Blackhawks and Sharks like eminently slaugterable lambs?

Hard to say, really. Calgary has been bad on the road for a couple of reasons:

1.) Exploitable match-ups. When Keenan doesn't have last change, he moves Conroy up with Iginla and things go to hell. In addition, it's tougher to get Boyd and Moss out against the lesser lights whom they so readily exploit.

2.) Illness/fatigue. Calgary began the year in Vancouver with a couple of players recovering from the flu. Word is, a number of the guys were again afflicted during the recent debacles in Chicago and San Jose.

If factor #1 carries more weight, then the potential for a loss tonight increases. If #2 then the chances for a win go up (assuming everyone is healthy now).

Things to watch for:

- Calgary will probably continue to trap like the Wild, based on how effective it proved previously.

- Will the new lines/match-ups remain? Keenan moved Aucoin up with Regehr last game and had Cammalleri/Boyd/Bourque as a second line. I still don't like Bertuzzi playing with Iginla so much, but it seems "Sore Thumb" is going to be fixture in the top 6 until he gets hurt.

As for Aucoin in the first pairing - the old plow-horse had himself a good game there on Tuesday, but I wouldn't bet on that happening again. Based on his work the last 3 seasons or so, that nice night is likely to be an aberration.

- Grantao will be looking to get the Avs currently anemic offense going. That means Stastny, Smyth and Hejduk will probably see as much time as possible against the Flames 2nd and 3rd lines.

- Count how many times Todd Bertuzzi makes some sort of backhand pass. Turn it into a drinking game if you're so inclined:

drink for: any ol' backhand pass

drink again if: it's in the offensive zone

drink again, again if: it's blind, weak, easily intercepted or to no one in particular

Guaranteed to get you RIPPED.

Prediction - The Avs will be looking to get even. If Kipper is average, the Flames will fall in this one.

Avs 4, Calgary 3. Stastny, Hejduk, Leopold and Hensick for Colorado. Boyd, Langkow and Phaneuf for the Flames.

Yup. I've been enveloped.

Some of you may be wondering about "The Score" banner at the top there, or the the new McDonalds Ad off to the right.

The truth is, I was scouted over the summer and asked to join the Scores burgeoning blog network. Some emails were exchanged, things were said, promises were made, broken, and then re-made.

Anyways, the long and short of it is, I've sold out. But not really, as while there indeed will be some banner ads making their rounds, I've still got full control over what goes on around here. So expect more relentless scapegoating, invective filled rants, cruel jabs at the mainstream media and forays into the mathematical (despite my innumeracy).

If you take a gander at the drop down menu on top there, you'll notice a few other well known hockey bloggers have been welcomed into the Score fold as well as myself. Most familiar amongst them would be Oilers-focused Black Dogs Hate Skunks - always a fun read filled with both hockey analysis and gut-busting anecdotes.

Anyways, just wanted to let regulars know what was what.

Also - if the formatting seems nutty for a bit, please ignore. Just working out a few kinks.

Imitation is the sincerest from of flattery

After being run out of the rink by the San Jose Sharks last week, the Flames apparently decided to adopt the Detroitian strategy of "control puck, limit chances against, shoot from everywhere". To say that it worked is an understatement.

The Flames ran the Avs out of the rink.

It was a very different look to Calgary last night. Not only did Keenan institute the trap for a majority of the contest, but the lines and match-ups were juggled.

Bert-Langkow-Iginla
Bourque-Boyd-Cammalleri
Glencross-Conroy-Moss
pluggers

Aucoin-Regehr
Phaneuf-Giordano
Sarich-Pardy

The Iginla trio spent most of the night against the Avs first line (Stastny, Hejduk, Smyth), with the remainder of the time going to Conroy et al. Boyd's line saw cherry minutes and ate them up.

Most surprising to me was the promotion of Aucoin at the expense of Sarich. Regehr/Auocin ended up with the tough match-ups while Sarich and Pardy played against guys like Tucker and McCormick (ie; nobodies).

What's even more surprising to me is it worked! After beating up on Shinpad all year, the guy probably had his best game as a Flame (at least in recent memory) beside Regehr facing the big boys. I dont know if this was a "Sarich is struggling so let's move him down" issue or "Pardy is struggling, so lets give him a better partner" issue, but it's hard to argue with the results, however counter intuitive they might be.

Other stuff:

- Langkow should probably be Iginla's center going forward.

- Glencross is really starting to look like a massive steal to me. The guy was everywhere last night and was the Flames corsi leader (in terms of forwards) in just 11 minutes of ES ice. He got scored on, but was in no way at fault for the GA.

- 36 of the Flames 51(!) shots were at ES. They had another 17 shots blocked at 5on5. Budaj must have felt like he was target in a shooting gallery.

- I gave short shrift to the "flu/travel weary" excuse that was peddled by the team last week, but...maybe there was something to that.

- The only mediocre part of the evening for the Flames was their PP. 1-8, with the only goal coming at the end of the night when Colorado had already packed it in.

- David Moss and Rene Bourque are massive along the boards, especially in the offensive end. They may not have the best hands (ironic, I know, because they both scored last night), but they are invaluable when it comes to keeping the puck and moving it to good areas in the offensive zone.

- A play that few people probably noticed, but one that indicates his growth as a player, was Boyd's interception of the Av's clearing pass that led to the Flames first goal. Not only did he have the presence of mind to anticipate the play, he managed to move the puck out to a breaking Cammalleri, resulting in the 2on1 and subsequent goal.

- Craig Conroy looks like a better player when he's not expected to pass to Iginla or play the majority of the evening against the big guns.

- I was reminded last night just how much hockey is "a game of bounces":

After going up by one in the first period, the Avs managed to pen the Flames in their own end (one of the few times). Jordan Leopold got the puck at the point and rifled a shot that beat Kiprusoff cleanly. The puck raced towards the apparently empty net...and then glanced off a random Av forward that was drifting through the area. The puck bounced away, the threat was defused and the Avs weren't in the game after that.

In an alternate reality where that goal happens, the game turns into a vastly different one. At the very least, the Avs probably play the Flames into overtime or a shoot-out and probably steal a point or two. And, likely, everyone's perception of the Flames 51 shot effort are changed (for the worse).

Gameday - Sound advice

In preparation for tonight's contest and in light of their recent struggles, I think the Flames - both players and staff - should take a gander at Theoren Fleury's recent article in the Herald: Life Lessons I Learned from Hockey. Some gems of wisdom reside in that column. Including (but not limited to)...

You always want to overachieve in everything you do -- not just in hockey, but in life.

There are a lot of negative people in this world who are followers: Be a leader, take the bull by the horns and control your own destiny.

and

Surround yourself with good people, people who care about each other. Inspire someone on a daily basis to be better than they were the day before and results will come.

Winning is a process.

also

Everyone fears change, but you don't need to make drastic changes right away. Start small, realize it wasn't as bad as you thought and move on to the next stage and then the next, and all of a sudden you've empowered yourself.

Empowering, no? And don't overlook...

Ultimately you control your own destiny. I know if you're reading this, you are starting to feel a little uncomfortable. I'm trying to take away your excuses. Quit blaming everyone else for where you are at in your life. Rise above all the negative and turn your life into a positive. Somebody's gotta win and somebody's gotta a lose.

Hear that, Flames (and other people reading the article, all of whom are presumably shameful underachievers in some way)? No more excuses!

Other nuggets to consider...

"Take the high road to a more positive life experience."

"Drop the zeroes and get with the heroes."

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result."

"Recognize the fact that you are the one who is going to change your life and destiny."

and, finally, the conclusion:

So as you can see, there's more to playing the game of hockey than just lacing 'em up every day. Put a few of these principles into your life and I can tell you from my own experience that your life will get better...

Until next time. Stop the insanity and take the first step to a happy and prosperous life.

Got that Flames? Stop the insanity!

I think what we can take from this article is - clearly - the current iteration of the Calgary Flames is lacking principles. They aren't looking at the bright side, following their hearts, yearning to be better or maxing to the extreme. Leadership is lacking and negative energy is dominating their relationships and personal auras. The boys need a swift kick in the ass; an inspiration to strive for more and break themselves out of the downward spiral. As Brad Goodman once said: there's no trick to it. It's just a simple trick. Be like Boy! Be like Boy!

Also - Theoren Fleury is apparently thinking of abandoning the concrete industry to become the sage guru of the fortune cookie business.

Prediction - You will see a bald man get very angry this evening. Calgary's lucky numbers are 13-16-12-28 and 3.

Take Solace Flames Fans...

At least things are going wrong in Edmonton too.

So who gets the axe first? MacTavish or Keenan?

(Also - Who is poorer value for $4M? Dustin Penner or Adrian Aucoin?)

EDIT - Apparently Mark Spector is asking the very same question.

Hat tip to Illegal Curve.

Post-rape, err...game analysis

Im going to avoid making sweeping proclamations after a single beat down because it's tempting after a game like last night's to just throw the whole team under the bus and decide to cheer for someone else. I'll at least wait till the quarter season mark to do that.

Still, I feel like I need a target for my rage and disgust. A stress-ball. A punching bag. An...Adrian Aucoin.

Dude is brutal this year. Brutal. I thought as much in the summer, but that hasn't taken the sting out of his third-pairing-ness, nor his giant pay-cheque. Last night, he made a curious decision to wander into his partners space during a 2on2 rush in the neutral zone. The puck was passed to Aucoin's man, who promptly sped into the generous portion of open-ice left by the wandering Shinpad, resulting in a goal against. Of course, sometimes defensemen make a poor reads like this, but most of them are mobile enough to recover. Not Aucoin.

And, for what seems like the 10th time this year, Aucoin had a shot blocked during a power play, which led to a partial short-handed break-away, which led to an Aucoin hooking penalty. If you recall, the same exact thing happened against Nashville, which reuslted in Fiddler's SH penalty-shot goal.

Currently, Aucoin leads the team with 6.3 shots blocked/60 minutes of ice. That's 2 more than Giordano, who is in second place. Keep in mind, that's just ES ice: Im sure his power play number is much higher.

I know Aucoin is stuck on the team for the remainder of his contract, but I've had it up to here with him. The fact that the team is wasting 4M + 2.35M + 2.3M (8.65M) in cap space on him, Warrener and Vandermeer makes me nauseous.

Anyways, for those of you who didn't see the game, here's a brief symbolic review:



Flames have until next Tuesday to sit and be disastified with their performance. I wonder if Keenan's shirt collar is starting to feel a little tight?

Gameday - Flames @ San Jose

Two seasons ago, I bought a package of Flames tickets that included all the pre-season games and a couple of regular season matches.

One of those regular season games was against the San Jose Sharks. I invited my friend and occasional contributor Madmac to accompany me to what turned out to be one of the worst hockey games I've seen Calgary play live. They ended up losing 4-1.

Last season, I did the same. I bought the ticket package and went to a Flames/Sharks game at home. Madmac came along to that one too. Again, the Flames were humiliated, 4-1.

Tonight, the game is in San Jose, so no chance of our attending. However, Madmac will be heading over to my place to watch the PPV broadcast. As such, This is my pre-emptive apology for what will inevitably be a painful 4-1 loss.

Not that Sharks will need the help of a freaky curse to beat the Flames. San Jose is currently the class of the league in just about every way. They are 9-0-1 at home and 13-3-1 and overall. That lone home loss came recently against the Nashville Predators; a game in which the Sharks managed 57 shots on net. 57!

They have a +15 GD and average more than 38 shots on net per game. All of their players have positive corsi figures. Even Jody Shelley. These guys are the real deal.

I'd say the Sharks only weaknesses right now are their 19th ranked power play and their goaltending (although Boucher does have two shut-outs in five starts. Still...we know him well around these parts and he looked dreadful against the Predators. That impressive SV% will collapse eventually). Nabokov is still injured, of course, so Calgary will be facing their former back-up tonight.

On the Flames side of things, word is Cammalleri and Lombardi are still out, meaning the roster and line-up will likely stay the same. And, despite favorable returns from last game, that makes me nervous. Does Langkow go up against the Thornton/Marleau/Setoguchi line? That could get ugly, considering what we know about Bert at ES. Not that any of the other options are much better (Boyd, Iginla, Glencross or Conroy, Moss, Nystrom).

Also, good little feature on Mark Giordano today by Jean LeFebvre in the Herald. Jean is a friend of the blogosphere (unlike some of the mainstreamers), and I see some "new media" influence in his piece today:

Remember Stephan Lebeau?

He was an undersized but highly skilled forward for the Canadiens in the late '80s and early '90s. His younger brother Patrick had a sip of coffee with Dave King's Calgary Flames during the 1992-93 season.

Anyway, the elder Lebeau wasn't a particular favourite of Habs coach Pat Burns, who tended to sit the little guy against tough competition and deploy him primarily on the power play when he did suit up.

...

The Flames simply can't afford to spot Giordano anymore -- during a nine-game October stretch, he was averaging 12 minutes and change per night -- and the 25-year-old rearguard is giving every indication he'll be able to handle a heavier workload. He's currently the only plus defenceman on the Flames roster and has taken only three minor penalties all season. He fares very well in the advanced statistics that measure the team's performance when he's on the ice.

Bold added by me, obviously.

Discussion of tough competition and advanced metrics in the MSM? Huzzah!

The advanced stats JL is talking about here is probably corsi numbers. Gio is a beast by that measure so far (although, circumstances and linemates have to be given a bunch of credit here). His +31.2/60 rate is the best of any regular skater in the league right now. His ES scoring efficiency is also pretty high, sitting at 1.82 ESP/60.

Gio will probably line-up with Phaneuf tonight and the pair will be deployed behind whichever scoring line isn't taking on Thornton (likely, Iginla et al). That coupling gave the Leafs fits in their own zone on Tuesday, so it'll be interesting to see how they fair against a superior opponent this evening.

Prediction - See above.

Sharks perspectives: Fear the Fin, Battle of California.

And now for something completely different...

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Change can be good!

Hockey is a funny game.

A few nights ago, the Leafs laid a beating on one of the Eastern Conferences best teams.

On Sunday, it looked like the Flames would never win again.

One game later and everything gets reversed, with Calgary beating the proverbial tar out of the Passion That Unites us all. Yes...the tar. Pay no attention to the score - it flatters the Leafs. The bounces favored Toronto in this one, which is why it didn't end up 6-1.

What's perhaps more significant is: I almost universally agreed with everything Keenan did last night. He ditched the ridiculous Conroy/Iginla coupling, shuffled up the match-ups and dropped Pardy into the third pairing.

Imagine my surprise when Boyd started the game with Jarome -- and remained there (it helped that he scored a couple of goals)! I was doubly surprised when Pardy, who started the night with Phaneuf, was moved to the third pairing after it was clear he was probably going to struggle against anyone besides the lesser lights.

Hallelujah!

With Iginla playing with "third line" guys like Boyd and Glencross, I was curious to see how the match-ups would end up. No way Keenan plays Iggy against the big boys with that configuration...

Iginla line v. Grabovski, Hagman, Kulemin
Conroy line v. nobodies (Steen, Mayers, Tlusty)
Langkow line v. Antropov (Ponikarovski, Stajan)

In case you're wondering who the "first line" is for the Leafs, I think its Antropov and co. Although the Hagman combination might be right behind them. Course, a case could be made that the Leafs have no heavy hitters...

It might be surprising to see Langkow taking shifts against the Leafs top line, given Keenan's past proclivities, but it shouldn't be - Lanks has very quietly been one of the Flames more consistent top 6 fowards at ES this year. And we all know by now that Keenan rates Bourque highly. Bertuzzi is still a liability, but when the opposition is Antropov and parts, that becomes less of a concern.

Will Boyd stick with Iginla? I doubt it. This was a home game, Cammalleri and Lombardi were out and the opposition was relatively soft: it made for a perfect storm for Boyd to get a shot. And, while I liked how they performed, it's not like they beat Hagman's head in: Iggy et al actually had some pretty nominal corsi figures. In other rinks, against better lines, things probably wouldn't go so well.

Still, it did my heart good to see these kinds of adjustments by Keenan. Conroy moved down and played against the lesser lights (as he should) and finally didn't look like a headless chicken. Boyd got some generous ice time. Giordano moved up with Phaneuf and that tandem caused havoc at the good end of the rink.

Good stuff. How much of it will translate over to the next game against the dreaded Sharks is another matter though...

Gameday - The center of the universe shifts to Calgary

The Leafs are in town for the first time in years. Whats more, they are vastly outperforming all reasonable expectations so far. Toronto's hodge-podge of B-grade stars, kids and who-the-hell-is-that players have 16 points in 15 games under new skipper Ron Wilson. They have a negative GD, but tend to out-shoot their opponents by nearly 8 shots per game (35.2 for, 27.5 against). The only other teams in the same league are San Jose and Detroit.

As a result, pretty much every Leaf player has a positive corsi number and, if Vesa Toskala wasn't currently one of the worst tenders in the league, Toronto would probably be much higher in the standings.

I dont how that's possible (Hagman? Grabovski? Ponikarovski? Antropov? Kulemin?) but it certainly is impressive. Wilson has the club playing a very aggressive, very up-tempo game that seems to be getting returns. Considering the difference between rosters, it should be an easy win tonight...but, as WI points out, the Flames might actually be the underdogs.

Unlike Toronto, Calgary has underperformed relative to expectations thus far. The finger pointing has already begun, although one really just has to look at the ES stats of the Flames stars to understand what the problem is.

Further complicating things for the Flames is injury/illness woes. Cammalleri and Iginla are still fighting off the flu, with the former being a "game time" decision tonight.

In addition, while Phaneuf's eye-swelling has come down recently, it looks like Jim Vandermeer will be sidelined with a broken ankle for at least 6 weeks. Add in Lombardi's lingering shoulder problems and the practice lines look like this heading into tonight's contest:

Glencross-Boyd-Iginla
Bertuzzi-Langkow-Bourque
Nystrom-Conroy-Moss
Roy-Primeau-Prust

Regehr-Sarich
Pardy-Phaneuf
Aucoin-Giordano

Yeesh.

Iginla with Boyd and Glencross? Great third line, I suppose...

Of course, we all know Conroy is going to end up with Iginla for the real action, so that leaves Nystrom/Boyd/Moss to be exploited.

How about Pardy with Phaneuf? If that sticks, I honestly hope one of the credentialed media guys around town will ask Keenan "Why do you choose to play Dion Phaneuf with erstwhile healthy scratches? Last year, you did the same with Anders Eriksson. Now, Adam Pardy. How does a player go from being the 7th defenseman to the 4th?"

Tasking Phaneuf to play 30 minutes a night while carrying around a lesser partner doesn't compute for me. Whats more, Phaneuf isn't yet a Pronger or Lidstrom type that can play with anyone without repercussion. As I showed this summer, dragging around Bubba last year had a significant effect on Phaneuf's results.

I suppose Keenan likes to have a third pairing that can take advantage of soft match-ups. Or maybe he's hesitant to double-up on the liabilities in a single pairing. Still, playing Phaneuf will lesser partners looks like hamstringing the team's most potent weapon on the back-end to me. And it creates a chaos duo that can be exploited by an opposing coach, especially given that Phaneuf is out there a lot and not just against 4th liners.

All of this is moot if Pardy ends up playing 5 minutes tonight, however...which is a distinct possibility.

Good news? The Leafs PKing is the worst in the league. And if there's one thing the Flames have actually been pretty good at so far, it's scoring with the man advantage. Calgary's best chance for success tonight is to turn this into a special teams affair (assuming the PEN For/Against differential is around 0).

Prediction - 3-2 Flames. Langkow, Glencross and Giordano (it has to happen eventually) for Calgary. Punch Imlach and Harold Ballard for Toronto.

Go Flames.

Hail the conquering heros *sarcasm*

That was an unpleasant weekend.

Calgary went oh-fer during their little excursion, getting outscored 9-2 in the process. Kipper has now allowed 16 goals against in his last 3 games and the ES play of the top guns still looks like garbage.

That said, the club played 3 games in 4 nights and apparently was stricken by the flu (again). Im hoping that's why Jarome Iginla had perhaps the worst game I've ever seen him play last night. "Grossly ineffectual" doesn't begin to describe his performance for anyone who missed it. Either he was sick and tired...or had a broken foot and a hang-over. Yeesh.

Not that he was alone. Aside from some shifts by Moss, Boyd and Langkow (the first two together, the last one alone), Calgary was completely outclassed at every turn by the Blackhawks. Some credit should be given to the opposition last night as well...I was very impressed with their speed, puck control and overall cohesion. Chicago pressured Calgary relentelessly whenever the Flames had the puck (which wasn't often) and controlled the flow of play with relative ease whenever they had possession. There was something faintly Red Wingish to the 'Hawks game last night, which is hefty praise for a team that missed the play-offs last year and whos average age is around 26. If Havlat stays healthy, these guys will be in the running come April. Maybe even if he doesn't - Toews broke the goose egg last night and is bound to start putting up points at a rapid pace.

Of note, Jim Vandermeer only played 8 minutes last night due to an injury. No word on whether he's out indefinitely or it was just a "stinger".

Gameday - Calgary in Chicago...numbers

17 - Points by the Flames through 15 games.

15 - Points by the Hawks.

12 - The number of games the Hawks have played. Tied for fewest in the league.

10 - Chicago's goal differential.

5-0-2 - Chicago's home record so far.

4 - Bertuzzi's ES point total.

3-4-1 - Calgary's road record.

0.914 - The combined SV% of Chicago's goalies.

0.895 - Kiprusoff's SV%

-1 - Flames goal differential.

I was forwarded some questions by a Hawk fan in anticipation of the game tonight. Here they are, with my answers:

1. So what's the clock that counts down when the team tunes out Mike Keenan currently standing at?

Good question. It looked to be ticking down to it's final seconds when the team started 1-3-1, but the reversal of fortunes has stayed his execution.

Sutter got rid of two players the coach hated (Tanguay, Huselius) this summer and brought in more "Keenan friendly" players (see - Todd Bertuzzi). I think that added some time to the clock.

In the end, I think things will depend on results. The management and coaching staff are on a short leash this season and are expected to get results. If things start going badly, I can imagine the environment in the room turning poisonous, hastening Keenan's eventual firing. If not, he should stick around till then end of his contract (one year left after this one I believe).

2. Can Kiprusoff still handle all the minutes Keenan seems intent on giving him this season?

Hard to say. Kipper has been a work horse since he became the Flames starter, but Keenan's reliance on him has been pretty excessive thus far. Only time - and results - will tell, but I know I'd be far more at ease if the back-up got a start now and then.

3. Hawks fans turned on Vandermeer after a while, when his play wasn't nearly as nasty and tough as it used to be. Has he rediscovered that in Alberta?

Vandermeer has actually been decent during his limited time here. He gets to play with Dion Phaneuf at even-strength, which helps, but he's also been fairly consistent in the nasty play/willing to drop gloves department.

My only complaint with Vandermeer is his cap hit, which I think is a tad too high ($2.3M). That's not really his fault, however.

4. Please tell us you haven't bought in to Rene Borque....

I have. I dont know what his reputation was in Chicago, but I really like the guy. He has hands of stone, but his speed and forechecking have proven to be pretty valuable assets the first dozen games. He plays on both the PK and PP and doesn't get scored on too often at 5on5. For $1.3M, he looks a steal of a deal.

5. The Flames won 6 in a row last month, what was the biggest reason why?

Three primary reasons:

1.) Soft schedule. The Flames opponents during the streak were: Washington, Nashville, Phoenix, Colorado, Boston and Los Angeles. A couple of bottom feeders and nary an elite opponent in sight.

2.) Miikka Kiprusoff. He was dreadful for the first five or so games, but seemed to get in a groove during that span.

3.) Improved forward depth. Calgary has cobbled together some decent lines behind their primary guns (Iginla, Bertuzzi). Calgary's third unit of Boyd, Moss and Glencross have been particularly effective, while Mike Cammalleri is second on the team in points. Speaking of which...

6. We thought Cammalleri was an astute pick-up this summer, has it been that way thus far into the season?

So far, so good. Cammalleri has played on the "second line" with Daymond Langkow and has quietly been effective at both ends of the ice. He' been very efficient at scoring at both even-strength and the power play and hasn't been a defensive liability. If he ever starts playing with Jarome Iginla with any kind of regularity, his point totals will be even better.

7. Does it rile your rivals in Edmonton, and delight you, that two of your most important players, Iginla and Langkow, are from Edmonton?

Yes. And yes. Although both parties will tend to you use just about any leverage to rile the other.

Oh...and don't forget Dion Phaneuf. He's a native Edmontonian too ;). The best part is, they hate him the most up in Stinktown...

Gameday - Flames in Columbus

The prior post on the BJ's is a bit of a primer. Take away message - Columbus still isn't anywhere near the cream of the crop, but they probably aren't as bad as they seem right now. They have a good coach, some decent up and coming kids and a solid if unspectacular blueline.

On the other hand, the goaltending is a major sore spot for Columbus right now. Leclaire is out, Norrena is terrible and rookie goalie Steve Mason will be playing his 3rd game this week (2nd in two nights) after posting a couple of wins (despite some less than impressive stats). Word is, erstwhile Flame Krisitian Huselius might miss the game due to a sore ankle, which would take a big chunk out of the bad guys attack this evening.

As for the Flames, word is Curtis MceLhinney will finally get his first start. So it's rookie versus rookie, with the exhausted Mason facing the couldn't-be-fresher CuMac. Conroy will probably be playing with Iginla again, even if Lombo finds his way back into the line-up (no word on that front yet) and Im hoping Cammalleri remains the left-winger on that unit.

CBC will be showing the game tonight...as long as you're in the Southern Alberta region. All you Flames scattered outside the homeland are screwed Im afraid.

Prediction - Flames light up the kid, 5-3. Iginla, Langkow, Cammalleri, Giordano and Moss for Calgary. Brassard, Nash and Torres (puke!) for Columbus.

Go Flames.

A message for Columbus Blue Jacket fans: hang in there

While this is typically a Flames blog, I've developed a soft spot for the the maligned BJs recently. Partially because I'm a not-so-secret fan of Kristian Huselius and partially because I've liked a majority of what the organization has done since MacLean got the boot.

There's been talk of dwindling support in Columbus this year. It's understandable: there's only so much losing and futility the faithful can take before cheering becomes something cruelly masochistic. The "Young Guns era" still evokes gags and grmiaces amongst Flames fans that remember it, for example.

The BJ's are currently 4th in the Central division. They have a negative GD and (-6) and have won only 5 of their first 13 games. So things look pretty grim.

Since I've been following them a bit this season, I've noticed Columbus has lost a few games they probably should have won. In fact, the Blue Jackets have the 10th best shot/game average in the league (30.8) and on of the better shot differentials (+3/game). Which made me look at their team-wide corsi/SV% stats.

Those are some pretty positive numbers for a basement dwelling team. The club is +73 by the corsi metric thus far, with guys like Huselius (+47) and Nash (+33) leading the way. Only 4 guys are in the red: Jan Hejda, Mike Commodore (tough match-ups?), Andrew Murray and Jared Boll (4th line muckers).

It looks to me like Columbus has been pretty unlucky so far. Leclaire has been mediocre/injured, with Fredrick Norrena doing his best Raycroft impression. Not a single one of Columbus' goalies has a SV% above .900 right now, which strikes me as something that can't possibly continue on a Hitchcock coached team.

In addition, the shooting percentages with guys like Nash and Juice on the ice are ridiculously low (5.4% and 7.3%). Nash himself is shooting at just 9.8%, around 4% below his career average, smaller even his rookie rate of 11.0% (his worst to date). No way that a sniper of his ability doesn't start putting more pucks in the net. In addition, RJ Umberger (0%) can't shoot blanks forever and the return of both Modin and Torres should help the club. If Brassard and Voracek don't fall off a cliff half way through the year, things should start to turn around for this team. Especially if they can get some goaltending.

In short - don't give up all hope just yet Blue Jackets fans. Your team seems to be doing the right things and fortunes are bound to turn around if/when the bounces start going the other way. Take it from a Flames fan; victory, long delayed, is all the sweeter once it arrives.

The Kitchen Sink

If you failed to catch the Flames game last night, you missed perhaps the strangest contest since...I honestly can't think of a historical comparison.

Disallowed goals, short-handed break-aways, multiple 5on3's, baffling officiating, terrible goaltending, shoddy defensive coverage, a multi-goal night for Craig Conroy. The liveblog added an element of wackiness with Miikka Kipprusoff**, Andrei Taratukhin**, an Aussie, someone from Japan and a Nasvhille Predators fan all stopping by. Pure. Insanity.

**Ostensibly

Like the Penguins before them, the Flames nearly surrendered a five goal lead in this game. On the other hand...the Flames had a five goal lead in this game. I dont know whether to feel good or spit on the ground in contempt.

The good stuff - the Flames top six, maligned by me to date, erupted last night and completely dismantled the Preds defense. Conroy laughed in the face of my continued criticism by scoring two goals and orchestrating another. Todd Bertuzzi added three assists while Iginla ran his point total against Nashville to seven through two games. Incredibly, Iggy is now third in the NHL in scoring, despite being fairly ho-hum at ES all year.

The bad stuff - The Flames actually lost the special teams battle last night. They surrendered two 5on3 goals against and, for the hell of it, allowed a couple of short-handed goals in the third period to boot.

Adrian Aucoin will henceforth be known as "shinpad", due to his propensity for directing pucks into obvious blocks. He was fairly abysmal last night all around. It was his mis-fire and hook that led to Fiddler's SH penalty shot goal as well.

Most concerning? Miikka Kiprusoff has returned to sucksville after a brief hiatus. He allowed 6 goals on 15 shots in the last two periods last night. Some, he couldn't be faulted on. Others would have been stopped by a stick laid across the plain of the crease.

Kipper has now allowed 10 goals in two games against the likes of Nashville and Phoenix. Probably 40% of the goals scored on him over that span were stoppable pucks. He is now 23rd in the league in terms of SV% and his GAA is an ugly 3.14. You can argue that he's probably tired and you can argue that the team in front of him hasn't been great so far. At some point, though, the buck has to stop with the $8.5M goalie.

The bad news is, the schedule gets harder from here on out and the club isn't going to get much better. The Flames have played precisely one (potentially) elite team through the first four weeks (ANA) and Kipper's stats are shit. I thought he had regained his form during the 6 game streak, but his recent performances and overall numbers cast doubt upon that theory. Im back to thinking that his actual form is *this* while the few games of stellar play was the aberration. Even Peter Budaj has been player of the week.

Overall, Im still not sure how to feel about this game. I'd like to celebrate the win and the 7 goals for, Iginla's breaking out, etc. But I also know that a 5 goal lead should NEVER develop into a white-knuckler.

Whatever. Take the two points and move on. Don't watch the tape. And for God's sake, put Curis MceLhinney in net this weekend.

Liveblog - fancy, fancy!

Im going to try this fancy app for the liveblog tonight. Do please try and stop by.

FHF - Announcing other people's promotions before they do.

A Sportsnet representative recently dropped a press release for an upcoming contest they'll be running in my in-box. They ran something similar last year, so it may sound familiar to some of you.

I agreed to run the PR in this space because I was flattered SNET knew about me at all and...well, Im nothing if not a shill. Anyways, here's the announcement in all it's glory:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

ROGERS SPORTSNET IS LOOKING FOR THE “CONNECTED FLAMES FAN”

Flames fan videos will be voted on to win grand prize

CALGARY (November 7, 2008) – Rogers Sportsnet is giving fans of the Calgary Flames a chance to prove why they are the “Connected Flames Fan”.

The Connected Fan contest is asking Flames fans to upload a 90-second video that demonstrates how passionate, knowledgeable and committed to their home team. The maximum length of any submission is 90 seconds.

Fans will vote for the finalists, who will be interviewed by a Sportsnet panel to determine the winner.

Flames fans can go to www.sportsnet.ca/connected_fan and upload their video for a chance to win the following prizing:

* 4 tickets to a Flames home game
* Team-autographed Flames jersey
* Tour of the Sportsnet Flames broadcast booth and HD Truck
* Sportsnet prize pack

Last season, Tim Haney of Calgary was the Connected Fan for the Flames in 2007.

Pretty decent prize pack for all you aspiring or amateur videoists out there.

Here are some of the previous entries, via youtube:

Gameday - Preds in town. Upon Big Bert and Snuffleupagus

We're a month in and a couple of things have come to light: Bertuzzi is who I thought he was and the Flames are lousy at ES (so far).

The first feeds into the second, given the way the lines have been assembled over the initial four weeks. Bert has enjoyed some primo time up front with Jarome and the returns have been uninspiring. Add in Conroy as Iginla's center and you have an ineffective superstar.

The good news is - the Flames aren't wholly reliant on Iginla to outscore the bad guys anymore. With the steps forward by Moss, Boyd and Glencross, Calgary has some nice options elsewhere on the roster that can beat up on the oppositions lesser lights. Meaning, if Keenan can figure out a configuration in the top 6 that helps Iginla succeed and Bertuzzi not to suck, this might actually be a better than 8th hockey team.

There's the rub, however. Current experimentation has Boyd up with Jarome and Cammalleri, which moves Bourque to play with Langkow and Bertuzzi (and Conroy down with Glencross and Moss). Those look like nice lines in theory (Iginla gets more offensively capable linemates)...the question remains: who takes the tough match-ups? I love Boyd so far, but is he capable of skating against the big boys (even with Iginla on his wing)? I think Bourque and Langkow can keep their heads above water in rough waters, but Sore Thumb will likely sink that trio. And if Conroy can't get the job done with Iginla and Bourque, what chance does he have with Moss and Glencross (not to take anything away from the latter two - they've played great. But they've been doing it against other 3rd lines)?

Things will look better once Lombo returns Im sure, but until then Keenan is going to have a hell of a time finding the right combination to spur Iginla and not have at least one forward line get bludgeoned at ES by the other guys heavy lifters.

As such, it'll be interesting to see what happens this evening versus the Preds. I think it's heartening that Keenan has moved Bert away from Iginla and Conroy down to the third line (even if it's just in practice for now) because it means he's recognizing the deficiencies and - hopefully - acting to correct them. Of course, a bad shift or two with Boyd between Iginla and Cammalleri tonight might just result in a return to the comfortable and the familiar for Iron Mike. He loves him his favorites and a bump in the road will likely be met with a compulsive reformation back to the Conroy/Bertuzzi/Iginla unit. On the other hand, maybe something will click and Conroy and Bert will stay where they belong.

I have no idea who will face Arnott/Dumont tonight though. With the practice lines as they are, Keenan has spread his three favorite heavy lifters (Iginla, Bourque, Conroy) across three separate units. It may just come down to own-zone and offensive-zone draws - Iginla getting the latter, Conroy getting the former, with Langkow getting the scraps.

Finally, a question - does Curtis McElhinney FINALLY get the start tonight? Will he ever start again? He's fast becoming the Snuffleupagus of the Calgary Flames - he supposedly exists, but no one ever sees him.

Prediction - Preds 2, Flames 3. Boyd, Iginla and Moss for Calgary. Arnott and Weber for Nashville.

PS - with all this roster intrigue, this might be a good game for the first liveblog of the year. I'd like have an active comments section for all my misspellings and invective though. Yay or nay readers?

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On another note, Matt and I have decided to get together a month from now when the Flames meet the Blues. We're sending out an open invitation to anyone who wants to join us at Schanks North in Calgary. Swing by if you want to laugh, cry, drink, vomit, or tell me how much my writing stinks. We're giving you a months warning, so no excuses people. Be there or be square.