Saturday, November 22, 2008
The Bertuzzi dampening field
I mentioned Bert's various faults in the quarterpole post below this one. I also - in passing - dubbed his deleterious effect on Jarome Iginla as "Bertuzzi dampening field" in the comments over at BoA recently. I was half joking, but perhaps the concept bears further investigation.
The duo's corsi numbers when together are lackluster. We also know that neither is scoring much at ES (Bertuzzi less so that Jarome). But is Bert really a drag on Iginla or are both guys just under performing?
Well, thanks to hockeyanalysis.com, we can look at that very thing.
First ES GA for Jarome with/without Bertuzzi -
No big effects here. Bert gets scored a bit more on his own, while Iginla does slightly better away from Bert...but there's no significant differences.
Now ES GF for Jarome with/without Sore Thumb -
Here's where we see the "dampening field" come in to play. Together, the pair have played about 123 ES minutes and managed 3 goals - a measly 0.488 GF/20 rate (or 1.46/60). Alone, Iginla has played 165 minutes and managed 9 goals* for a robust 1.091 GF/20 efficiency (or 3.273) - that's better than double the Iggy+Bert rate. In fact the difference between the two is 0.603/20 or 1.809/60. Basically that means the team is losing about 0.603 goals for every 20 minute block Keenan plays Iginla with Bertuzzi.
Of course, Bertuzzi away from Iginla doesn't really fare any better. His rate goes down slighty to 0.437 GF/60. Meaning that - yes - he's probably the problem here.
These are relatively small sample sizes and if the two went on a sudden two week tear, the effects you see above could probably be canceled out. However, the contrasts are significant and sync up so completely with what I've seen on the ice that I think the best way to get Iggy going would be an extended vacation away from the 235 pound anchor.
An effective Jarome Iginla improves the Flames immeasurably. It should be Keenan's priority going forward to get the Captain back to his old dominating self again. Demoting the big man is a firm step in that direction, I think.
*(keep in mind, this measures the goal for by the team when the player(s) in question is on the ice, not the goals directly scored by said player(s)).