Thursday, November 13, 2008

Gameday - Flames @ San Jose

Two seasons ago, I bought a package of Flames tickets that included all the pre-season games and a couple of regular season matches.

One of those regular season games was against the San Jose Sharks. I invited my friend and occasional contributor Madmac to accompany me to what turned out to be one of the worst hockey games I've seen Calgary play live. They ended up losing 4-1.

Last season, I did the same. I bought the ticket package and went to a Flames/Sharks game at home. Madmac came along to that one too. Again, the Flames were humiliated, 4-1.

Tonight, the game is in San Jose, so no chance of our attending. However, Madmac will be heading over to my place to watch the PPV broadcast. As such, This is my pre-emptive apology for what will inevitably be a painful 4-1 loss.

Not that Sharks will need the help of a freaky curse to beat the Flames. San Jose is currently the class of the league in just about every way. They are 9-0-1 at home and 13-3-1 and overall. That lone home loss came recently against the Nashville Predators; a game in which the Sharks managed 57 shots on net. 57!

They have a +15 GD and average more than 38 shots on net per game. All of their players have positive corsi figures. Even Jody Shelley. These guys are the real deal.

I'd say the Sharks only weaknesses right now are their 19th ranked power play and their goaltending (although Boucher does have two shut-outs in five starts. Still...we know him well around these parts and he looked dreadful against the Predators. That impressive SV% will collapse eventually). Nabokov is still injured, of course, so Calgary will be facing their former back-up tonight.

On the Flames side of things, word is Cammalleri and Lombardi are still out, meaning the roster and line-up will likely stay the same. And, despite favorable returns from last game, that makes me nervous. Does Langkow go up against the Thornton/Marleau/Setoguchi line? That could get ugly, considering what we know about Bert at ES. Not that any of the other options are much better (Boyd, Iginla, Glencross or Conroy, Moss, Nystrom).

Also, good little feature on Mark Giordano today by Jean LeFebvre in the Herald. Jean is a friend of the blogosphere (unlike some of the mainstreamers), and I see some "new media" influence in his piece today:

Remember Stephan Lebeau?

He was an undersized but highly skilled forward for the Canadiens in the late '80s and early '90s. His younger brother Patrick had a sip of coffee with Dave King's Calgary Flames during the 1992-93 season.

Anyway, the elder Lebeau wasn't a particular favourite of Habs coach Pat Burns, who tended to sit the little guy against tough competition and deploy him primarily on the power play when he did suit up.

...

The Flames simply can't afford to spot Giordano anymore -- during a nine-game October stretch, he was averaging 12 minutes and change per night -- and the 25-year-old rearguard is giving every indication he'll be able to handle a heavier workload. He's currently the only plus defenceman on the Flames roster and has taken only three minor penalties all season. He fares very well in the advanced statistics that measure the team's performance when he's on the ice.


Bold added by me, obviously.

Discussion of tough competition and advanced metrics in the MSM? Huzzah!

The advanced stats JL is talking about here is probably corsi numbers. Gio is a beast by that measure so far (although, circumstances and linemates have to be given a bunch of credit here). His +31.2/60 rate is the best of any regular skater in the league right now. His ES scoring efficiency is also pretty high, sitting at 1.82 ESP/60.

Gio will probably line-up with Phaneuf tonight and the pair will be deployed behind whichever scoring line isn't taking on Thornton (likely, Iginla et al). That coupling gave the Leafs fits in their own zone on Tuesday, so it'll be interesting to see how they fair against a superior opponent this evening.

Prediction - See above.

Sharks perspectives: Fear the Fin, Battle of California.