Thursday, January 08, 2009

Gameday - Flames vs NYI (Updated)

From the best to the worst. After a stunning victory over the San Jose Sharks, Calgary will be swimming with minnows this evening. I have some thoughts after the last game (and before this one) which I'll present in no specific order.

- Every single line looked effective on Tuesday night. Except Jarome's. That's both the good and bad news when it comes to the Flames forward depth currently. Langkow is on fire and even Bertuzzi has become "not a liability" out there. Hell, I saw the big guy lay down to block a shot against the Sharks, possibly the first time he's ever bothered to do so in his entire career. Bert's decision-making is no longer eye-gougingly bad and it looks like the bounces are going his way a little to boot. Playing with Langkow and the ES beast Rene Bourque hasn't hurt either. If Bertuzzi continues in this vein, he'll be far from the lead anchor he appeared to be in the first 25 games or so.

On the other hand, the trio of Cammalleri, Jarome and (be it Boyd, Conroy or Lombardi) are sucking balls right now. Big, hairy balls. And with everyone else clicking on all cylinders, I can't see any changes being made to get the Captain going. Likely result? A redundant center (*cough* Lombardi) gets moved for another top 6 forward eventually. With Keenan shuffling pivots through the first line on a shift by shift basis, you can almost picture him looking up at the owners box, shaking his head and mouthing the words "this isn't working". Personally, I'd give Boyd a longer look on the first line, but that's just my irrational man-crush talking. Speaking objectively, an established top 6 forward (LW or C) would be the ideal solution.

- Matt beat me to it, but I wanted to note how great it is to have an honest-to-god fourth line this year. Boyd, Nystrom and Primeau have all moved forward, partially because they don't have the likes of Eric Godard holding them back. Roy is a goon, but he's at least a functional player at the NHL level. Now Keenan can actually play the 4th unit without it being panic time for 4 minutes a game.

- Mark Giordano had quite the game versus the Sharks and he looks to be settling his overall play down a little to me. Less chaos, more stability, especially at ES. Course, it helps that Keenan carefully manages his ice time. What's notable, though, is the fact that Gio leads all Calgary blueliners in terms of ESP/60 (something he did in limited time as a rookie). Dude has the skills to promote offense from the back-end.

- Having been fooled by noteworthy runs before, Im trying to temper my excitement about the Flames going into the second half. Last year, the team turned into a world beater in December, reeling off a Franchise record six straight road wins and propelling Huselius to the top every Flames fans "favorites" list (albeit for a very short time). It looked like they had figured things out and were cruising. No so. Nolan, Lombardi and Huselius went ice-cold in the latter part of the year, Tanguay continued to sulk and Calgary backed into the post-season as underdogs.

Two years ago, I started to think we "had something" when Jarome Iginla went down with an injury at the start of January and the team beat the crap out of all comers during the following month anyways. Alas, Iginla returned in February, but the team choked egregiously under Jim Playfair down the stretch anyways and were cannon fodder before the guns of Detroit in the first round.

Calgary's underlying stats look really solid thus far, so it's possible we're not looking at a mere streak here. There's no unsustainable percentages driving their success, no single, injure-able Hercules for other teams to target. The Flames routinely out-shoot the bad guys and they don't even have the benefit of big salaries producing big returns right now. Im tempted to say all the arrows are pointing in the right direction, but I've been burned before...

- The Islanders are probably the worst team in the league at the half-way point. Their points leader (Doug Weight - !!) is injured and they've lost something like a bazillion games in a row on the road. They get out-shot all the time and their GD is -42. Nobody on the Islanders has a positive corsi rating. Only Trent Hunter has managed more than 2 points per 60 minutes of ice at ES.

The only semi-respectable thing about NYI is their special teams (PP - 16th, PK - 12th) only because they aren't terrible. So while nothing is assured and the hockey gods can be cruel...this is a team the Flames should be handling easily. I'd be nervous about that, but Calgary has actually been pretty consistent when it comes to beating up on the weaker sisters this year. In addition, Jarome has tended to put up 4+ points a night against the dregs so far, so perhaps we can expect a big game from him.

Prediction - Flames 6, Islander 2. Iginla (2), Cammalleri, Lombardi, Phaneuf and Bourque for Calgary. Comrie and Potvin for NYI.

UPDATE! - There's rumors swirling that Todd Bertuzzi is questionable due to back concerns and that the Flames may insert - get this - Mikael Backlund into the line-up this evening to replace him. '

Far-fetched? Yes. Backlund struggled in the pre-season and in a 2nd tier men's league in Sweden. On the other hand, Sutter obviously loves him, the kid has been in town since the end of the WJC and...he's currently listed on the Flames roster.

Edit - Inside the Flames makes it official. I bet anyone $100 he starts between Jarome and Cammalleri (with Boyd on the 4th line with Roy and Nystrom). It's going to be very interesting to see how the kid does. I don't have high hopes, but...