Thursday, January 08, 2009

Kipper Save Percentage

This proved to be popular last year, so here it is again - Kipper's SV% in scatter-plot form:

click to enlarge

By my eye, there is no real upwards trend here, unlike last year. Rather, the trend is towards less volatility: prior to game 20, Kipper went from terrible to excellent and then back to terrible again. Things seem to have plateaued since, however, with his SV% hovering just above that .900 mark. If you're wondering, the 6-1 loss to SJS that seems to have sparked the team's turn-around was game #17...

So what are we seeing here? Given that the Flames made a marked effort to change strategy and focus after the Sharks shellacking, is the reduction in SV% variability entirely a reflection of the club's adjustment (that's my initial interpretation, but Im open to suggestions)? If so, what does that say about Kiprsuoff and team effects on goaltending as a whole?

Of course, raw SV% is only a small part of the picture. What I haven't included here is shot totals, shot quality and strength of opposition. Still, what the chart suggests to me is we're hovering right around Kipper's ceiling since the turn-around (his SV% has been a respectable .910 from game 21 on). The good news is that that isn't a terrible number. The bad news is it isn't a particularly great number either - a .910 SV% is good for about 20th in the league currently. Peers in that range include: Rinne, Johnson, Sanford, Giguere and Halak. Interestingly, Curtis McElhinney's SV% through his meager 4 games, 100 shots and zero wins has been - that's right - .910...

Tiny, miniscule sample size I know, but a suggestive coincidence nonetheless.