In looking at the Flames seasonal percentages, I noticed that Vic's timeonice app was delivering a different ES SV% than the one stated in Desjardins study. In fact, the underlying shot and goal totals were different for each. Vic's site had Kipper seeing about 170 more shots and allowing three more goals than what Desjardins accounted for. As a result, Kipper comes out with a better SV% (90.9) in the former.
Unable to resolve the differences myself, I emailed Desjardins for some clarification. His response was:
Some possible differences:
- Vic includes 4-on-4 and 3-on-3 (this is certainly the biggest difference)
- Vic uses just the NHL.com data; in order for me to get shot
location, I need to combine ESPN with nhl.com. I've audited it in the
past and it looks like they have the same dataset, but there are some
mismatches
- Vic determines the number of skaters directly from the NHL.com
play-by-play (PL) whereas I pull it from the TOI charts (TV and TH).
For whatever reason, they're different.
- Neither one of us includes empty nets
So, seems to be differences in category and reporting source. Technically, then, Kipper's SV% at behind the net (89.9) is his "true" 5on5 save rate (as close as we can get with the data in question, I guess), while Vic's site is Kipper's "true" even-strength SV% across all such variants of that condition.
As of right now, I'm unsure which should be consider more reflective of a goalie's ability.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
I should leave it to the wheel spinning Monkey
I was going to do a rudimentary run through of my largely inaccurate first round predictions (en route to delivering what will be my inaccurate second round predictions), but a reader emailed me a much more thorough and interesting spreadsheet yesterday.
This is a "prediction scorecard" comparing various local media guys, including Dowbiggen, Kerr, myself, etc. As you can see, I didn't fare all that well. The only series I nailed was, appropriately enough, Flames/Hawks. My worst call was the CBJ/DET series, obviously, an error made because I was overly influenced by the Flames final games against those two teams I think: in the final match versus DET, the Flames cruised to a victory thanks to horrendous goaltending by Osgood. In the other, Calgary was fundamentally dominated by the Jackets and lost 4-0 (it could have been 8-0).
Anyways, on to the second round! Please don't use these picks to gamble...
WC
DET v ANA
The Red Wings overwhelmed the Blue Jackets and Osgood held up through the first three games. However, Hiller has been excellent this year and was one of the primary reasons the Ducks upset the Sharks. Clearly, ANA doesn't have the kind of depth that can compete with DET, but their first line is excellent and their top 4 defensemen are strong. All that said, I the Wings taught me a lesson about picking a much lower seed over them in the first round.
DET in 7.
VAN v CHI
Both clubs have impressed me thus far. The Blackhawks are a three line deep club and their top defensive pairing is top notch. On the other hand, Luongo has been out of his mind for a long period of time now, so the Canucks have an obvious edge in net. CHI won't be scoring 4 goals on 16 shots in this series. Also - the Sedins and Kesler are legit.
VAN in 6.
EC
BOS v CAR
I don't know if anyone in the East can stop the Bruins. They've had the blessing of the hockey gods this year, as well as the leading Vezina candidate in net, an excellent coach and several lines of dangerous forwards. The Hurricanes did well to get past the Devils and Ward is the real deal these days, but...Boston is just too strong.
BOS in 6.
WAS v PIT
This might be the series to watch in round two. Malkin/Crosby versus Ovechkin/Semin. Four of the leagues best ES forwards during the regular season going head to head. With Varlamov giving the Caps competent goaltending, they don't really have a glaring weakness anymore. I certainly like their forward depth more than the Pens, whose scoring list goes something like this: Malkin, Crosby .............................Kunitz, Guerin, Staal. That said, the Penguins have been a different (better) team under Bylsma. Should be a close one.
WAS in 7.
EDIT - Oddly, I'm doing well in my amateurs vs pros (The Score talking heads) pick 'em pool after round one. Leader Hockey Jackass has the scoreboard here (I sat tied for 2nd as of yesterday, although the Devils loss probably hurt me).
This is a "prediction scorecard" comparing various local media guys, including Dowbiggen, Kerr, myself, etc. As you can see, I didn't fare all that well. The only series I nailed was, appropriately enough, Flames/Hawks. My worst call was the CBJ/DET series, obviously, an error made because I was overly influenced by the Flames final games against those two teams I think: in the final match versus DET, the Flames cruised to a victory thanks to horrendous goaltending by Osgood. In the other, Calgary was fundamentally dominated by the Jackets and lost 4-0 (it could have been 8-0).
Anyways, on to the second round! Please don't use these picks to gamble...
WC
DET v ANA
The Red Wings overwhelmed the Blue Jackets and Osgood held up through the first three games. However, Hiller has been excellent this year and was one of the primary reasons the Ducks upset the Sharks. Clearly, ANA doesn't have the kind of depth that can compete with DET, but their first line is excellent and their top 4 defensemen are strong. All that said, I the Wings taught me a lesson about picking a much lower seed over them in the first round.
DET in 7.
VAN v CHI
Both clubs have impressed me thus far. The Blackhawks are a three line deep club and their top defensive pairing is top notch. On the other hand, Luongo has been out of his mind for a long period of time now, so the Canucks have an obvious edge in net. CHI won't be scoring 4 goals on 16 shots in this series. Also - the Sedins and Kesler are legit.
VAN in 6.
EC
BOS v CAR
I don't know if anyone in the East can stop the Bruins. They've had the blessing of the hockey gods this year, as well as the leading Vezina candidate in net, an excellent coach and several lines of dangerous forwards. The Hurricanes did well to get past the Devils and Ward is the real deal these days, but...Boston is just too strong.
BOS in 6.
WAS v PIT
This might be the series to watch in round two. Malkin/Crosby versus Ovechkin/Semin. Four of the leagues best ES forwards during the regular season going head to head. With Varlamov giving the Caps competent goaltending, they don't really have a glaring weakness anymore. I certainly like their forward depth more than the Pens, whose scoring list goes something like this: Malkin, Crosby .............................Kunitz, Guerin, Staal. That said, the Penguins have been a different (better) team under Bylsma. Should be a close one.
WAS in 7.
EDIT - Oddly, I'm doing well in my amateurs vs pros (The Score talking heads) pick 'em pool after round one. Leader Hockey Jackass has the scoreboard here (I sat tied for 2nd as of yesterday, although the Devils loss probably hurt me).
Monday, April 27, 2009
Kipper expected versus actual
Mirtle alerted me to the fact that Desjardins has published his yearly look at actual performance versus expected for goalies (based on these criteria).
James has the league wide run down, but of course it's Miikka we're mostly concerned with around here.
And regular readers of the space can likely predict the outcome of Gabe's analysis. Keep in mind this is ES only (and Kipper actually excelled SH this year, relative to other game states):
Kipper:
Actual SV% - 89.9
Expected SV% - 90.8
Diff - (-0.9%)
Actual GAA - 2.68
Expected GAA - 2.44
Diff - (+0.24)
Of all the NHL goalies that played this season, only Raycroft, Budaj, Legace and Lalime under-performed their expected GAA to a greater degree than Kipper according to this process. Toskala and Ersberg tied with Kiprusoff at +.24. The delta between his expected SV% and actual also placed him at the bottom of the list - tied with Marty Turco and ahead of only the Colorado tenders, Ersberg, Toskala, Legace and Lalime.
In theory, this analysis factors out team effects. Kipper's "expected stats" are based on the quality of shots he faced behind the Flames defense. His expected SV% of 90.9 placed him in the middle of the pack (tied with the likes of Chris Mason, Dwayne Roloson and Craig Anderson), so it's certainly arguable that the Flames didn't get good bang for the buck out of their pricey blueline this season. Still, it's not like he managed to outperform the club's mediocrity. If anything, he sank them to lower depths.
I hypothesized last summer that we'd see something like this out of Kipper this season based on his steadily declining stats, although looking at stuff like this now I'm still slightly surprised at how far he's slipped. The Flames probably didn't even really get replacement level performance out of him this season - and he's signed for another five more years. The question now becomes: is this as low as he goes?
James has the league wide run down, but of course it's Miikka we're mostly concerned with around here.
And regular readers of the space can likely predict the outcome of Gabe's analysis. Keep in mind this is ES only (and Kipper actually excelled SH this year, relative to other game states):
Kipper:
Actual SV% - 89.9
Expected SV% - 90.8
Diff - (-0.9%)
Actual GAA - 2.68
Expected GAA - 2.44
Diff - (+0.24)
Of all the NHL goalies that played this season, only Raycroft, Budaj, Legace and Lalime under-performed their expected GAA to a greater degree than Kipper according to this process. Toskala and Ersberg tied with Kiprusoff at +.24. The delta between his expected SV% and actual also placed him at the bottom of the list - tied with Marty Turco and ahead of only the Colorado tenders, Ersberg, Toskala, Legace and Lalime.
In theory, this analysis factors out team effects. Kipper's "expected stats" are based on the quality of shots he faced behind the Flames defense. His expected SV% of 90.9 placed him in the middle of the pack (tied with the likes of Chris Mason, Dwayne Roloson and Craig Anderson), so it's certainly arguable that the Flames didn't get good bang for the buck out of their pricey blueline this season. Still, it's not like he managed to outperform the club's mediocrity. If anything, he sank them to lower depths.
I hypothesized last summer that we'd see something like this out of Kipper this season based on his steadily declining stats, although looking at stuff like this now I'm still slightly surprised at how far he's slipped. The Flames probably didn't even really get replacement level performance out of him this season - and he's signed for another five more years. The question now becomes: is this as low as he goes?
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Amatuers vs the pros
The Score invited me to compete in a "bloggers versus talking head experts" pick 'em challenge for the post-season. Naturally, I accepted, along with all the other Score network bloggers. Points will be based on choosing winners and series lengths. Who is the best monkey-wheel-spinner amongst us you think?
Fantasy Hockey Scouts has more details here.
Fantasy Hockey Scouts has more details here.
This probably sounds familiar to Flames fans...
Risebrough fired.
And deservedly so, I think.
Riser wasn't terrible as the Wild's GM, but he was totally unable to make them anything more than a mediocre club. I think Lemaire's coaching hid a lot of roster weaknesses as well.
He mishandled the Gaborik situation this year, exacerbated by the (completely predictable) injury problems the sniper suffered through. From where I sit, Risebrough acted like a GM perpetually gun-shy: he was typically inactive or minimally active when it came to free agents or the trade deadline. Perhaps the notorious Gilmour/Leeman deal made him risk averse...
And deservedly so, I think.
Riser wasn't terrible as the Wild's GM, but he was totally unable to make them anything more than a mediocre club. I think Lemaire's coaching hid a lot of roster weaknesses as well.
He mishandled the Gaborik situation this year, exacerbated by the (completely predictable) injury problems the sniper suffered through. From where I sit, Risebrough acted like a GM perpetually gun-shy: he was typically inactive or minimally active when it came to free agents or the trade deadline. Perhaps the notorious Gilmour/Leeman deal made him risk averse...
good teams, bad goalies, costly decisions?
Heading into the first round here, there's going to be a couple of pretty good teams relying on some pretty bad goaltending to get them through the post season. The three that leap to mind are Calgary (Kipper, .903 SV%), Washington (Theodore, .900 SV%) and Detroit (Osgood, .887 SV%). They were 32nd, 40th and 45th in terms of league ranking by SV% respectively during the regular season.
In the Flames case, they have no choice. In 6 appearances this year back-up Curtis McElhinney didn't fair any better than Kiprusoff. As much as I think the kid got the shaft this season and is potentially better than his results, there aren't any arrows to indicate he could outperform the incumbent.
That isn't really true in the other two cases however. Watching Theodore lose the game for the Capitals last night really brought this home for me - the guy probably isn't even playing at replacement level for that club. Here's his stats line via Hockey Numbers:
Theordore - 2.87 GAA, .900 SV%, .897 SQN% (shot quality neutral save percentage), 28.7 SA/60
Now, here are his back-ups numbers:
Brent Johnson - 2.81 GAA, .908 SV%, .902 SQN%, 30.7 SA/60
Simeon Varlamov - 2.37 GAA, .918 SV%, .917 SQN%, 29 SA/60
Mikael Neuvirth - 3.00 GAA, .892 SV%, .871 SQN%, 27.8 SA/60
Varlamov and Neuvirth are rookies (which were discussed briefly here). They only played 9 games combined, so there's sample issues here. Johnson's number are marginally better than Theodore's results and he played in 19 games this season before being felled by injury.
Still, the only guy Theodore outperformed this season was Neuvirth (whose numbers have fallen steadily since his draft season. I don't think he's the prospect the Caps hoped he'd be). Despite being the "more experienced" - and far more expensive goaltender - there's lots of reasons to think that Theodore is actually the wrong choice to go with here. However, given their investment in him (4.5M through next season) and the general animus towards rookies in the post-season, I'm guessing it's "Jose or bust!" for the Caps. It may prove to be very costly, since I think the Capitals could be major contenders for the cup with merely competent netminding.
The Osgood thing is even less defensible. He's been worse than Theodore on arguably a better team and Detroit has an older, experienced and proven alternative in Conklin. "He's done it before" is the rationale I keep hearing on choosing Osgood as the starter for the play-offs, but Im guessing that will go out the window pretty quickly if he starts (rather, continues) to suck. The same issue cropped up during Hasek's last stint in Motown and the club did the right thing (ran with the better goaltender at the time) in the end.
Course one of these guys might get hot, rendering all this moot. The hockey gods routinely give the touch one or two guys every post season and it's often impossible to predict who it'll be. Personally I hope it Kipper but I'm not going to hold my breath...
In the Flames case, they have no choice. In 6 appearances this year back-up Curtis McElhinney didn't fair any better than Kiprusoff. As much as I think the kid got the shaft this season and is potentially better than his results, there aren't any arrows to indicate he could outperform the incumbent.
That isn't really true in the other two cases however. Watching Theodore lose the game for the Capitals last night really brought this home for me - the guy probably isn't even playing at replacement level for that club. Here's his stats line via Hockey Numbers:
Theordore - 2.87 GAA, .900 SV%, .897 SQN% (shot quality neutral save percentage), 28.7 SA/60
Now, here are his back-ups numbers:
Brent Johnson - 2.81 GAA, .908 SV%, .902 SQN%, 30.7 SA/60
Simeon Varlamov - 2.37 GAA, .918 SV%, .917 SQN%, 29 SA/60
Mikael Neuvirth - 3.00 GAA, .892 SV%, .871 SQN%, 27.8 SA/60
Varlamov and Neuvirth are rookies (which were discussed briefly here). They only played 9 games combined, so there's sample issues here. Johnson's number are marginally better than Theodore's results and he played in 19 games this season before being felled by injury.
Still, the only guy Theodore outperformed this season was Neuvirth (whose numbers have fallen steadily since his draft season. I don't think he's the prospect the Caps hoped he'd be). Despite being the "more experienced" - and far more expensive goaltender - there's lots of reasons to think that Theodore is actually the wrong choice to go with here. However, given their investment in him (4.5M through next season) and the general animus towards rookies in the post-season, I'm guessing it's "Jose or bust!" for the Caps. It may prove to be very costly, since I think the Capitals could be major contenders for the cup with merely competent netminding.
The Osgood thing is even less defensible. He's been worse than Theodore on arguably a better team and Detroit has an older, experienced and proven alternative in Conklin. "He's done it before" is the rationale I keep hearing on choosing Osgood as the starter for the play-offs, but Im guessing that will go out the window pretty quickly if he starts (rather, continues) to suck. The same issue cropped up during Hasek's last stint in Motown and the club did the right thing (ran with the better goaltender at the time) in the end.
Course one of these guys might get hot, rendering all this moot. The hockey gods routinely give the touch one or two guys every post season and it's often impossible to predict who it'll be. Personally I hope it Kipper but I'm not going to hold my breath...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
A new bookmark for Flames fans
It was bad news a few months ago when Jean Lefebvre announced he would no longer be covering the Flames for the Calgary Herald. As much as I rag on MSM types around here, the truth of the matter is there are quality people in the biz and Jean was (is) one of them.
And now, thanks to the driven chaps of the burgeoning Nation sites, Jean is back writing about the Flames. His first post - a series preview - went up today and is worth checking out.
Make sure to swing by. The Flames blogosphere is still rather sparse (moreso now that Matt is in semi-retirement) so it's a red letter day when our rather meager community adds a heavy hitter.
And now, thanks to the driven chaps of the burgeoning Nation sites, Jean is back writing about the Flames. His first post - a series preview - went up today and is worth checking out.
Make sure to swing by. The Flames blogosphere is still rather sparse (moreso now that Matt is in semi-retirement) so it's a red letter day when our rather meager community adds a heavy hitter.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Let's get linking
I haven't done a round-up in awhile. Here are some of the sites earning my attention this morning.
- Calgary Sun has launched their own MSM blog-type thing for the Flames. It'll go up in the sidebar in short order. Today's news? The Flames have re-called Anders Eriksson. Ugh.
- The Giguere era is over in Colorado. In other news, Jacques Martin and Don Waddell are still employed.
- James rates the first round match-ups at Cycle Like the Sedins.
- Eric Francis column this morning isn't really worth the read aside from this comment near the bottom:
There is indeed egg on Sutter's face for scoffing at media types who wondered how he made the deal fit into the cap in the first place. His words at the time, "It's not even close -- you guys have no idea." Word is the Flames were within hundreds of dollars of the US$56.7 million salary cap.
- Pensblog alerted me to this NHL play-off bracket contest. Have at 'er handicappers.
- My first post on the impeding ouster of the Flames at the hands of a Blackhawks went up today as well.
- On that hubristic note, I ended up claiming first place in the Mirtle's blogger invitational hockey pool this year. I basically went wire-to-wire on the back of some good gambles (Koivu, Semin, Burrows, Mason, Pavelski) and some good luck in terms of injury. Ironically, my club didn't even have one scorer inside the NHL's top 15 (Eric Staal and Semin were my two best).
The competition was fierce, featuring some really top-notch hockey guys, so I'm stunned I managed to hang on till the end.
- Calgary Sun has launched their own MSM blog-type thing for the Flames. It'll go up in the sidebar in short order. Today's news? The Flames have re-called Anders Eriksson. Ugh.
- The Giguere era is over in Colorado. In other news, Jacques Martin and Don Waddell are still employed.
- James rates the first round match-ups at Cycle Like the Sedins.
- Eric Francis column this morning isn't really worth the read aside from this comment near the bottom:
There is indeed egg on Sutter's face for scoffing at media types who wondered how he made the deal fit into the cap in the first place. His words at the time, "It's not even close -- you guys have no idea." Word is the Flames were within hundreds of dollars of the US$56.7 million salary cap.
- Pensblog alerted me to this NHL play-off bracket contest. Have at 'er handicappers.
- My first post on the impeding ouster of the Flames at the hands of a Blackhawks went up today as well.
- On that hubristic note, I ended up claiming first place in the Mirtle's blogger invitational hockey pool this year. I basically went wire-to-wire on the back of some good gambles (Koivu, Semin, Burrows, Mason, Pavelski) and some good luck in terms of injury. Ironically, my club didn't even have one scorer inside the NHL's top 15 (Eric Staal and Semin were my two best).
The competition was fierce, featuring some really top-notch hockey guys, so I'm stunned I managed to hang on till the end.
I got your predictions right here.
The match-ups are set and the real season begins on Wednesday. That of course means a totally meaningless prediction post!
WC
SJS - ANA
This should be an interesting series. San Jose was obviously the better team through most of the season, but the Ducks have really started to come on lately. The Sharks have the greater depth, but I might take Perry/Getzlaf/Ryan as the strongest single trio out of any of the forward groups. And Hiller might be the better goalie.
That said, it's hard to argue against the Presidents Trophy winners. They were the top team in the league for a reason.
Sharks in 7.
DET - CBJ
Looks like a mis-match, no doubt, but I think the Red Wings would have liked to avoid Columbus in the first round. Detroit is exploitable because of their goaltending and the BJ's Hickcockian coaching strategy might be able to take advantage.
Columbus in 7.
VCR - STL
Flames fans...take a look at the favorable first round match-up your team pissed away. Not to take anything away from the Blues - their run and subsequent placing in the WC is remarkable - but they are probably the weakest team in a play-off position. Partially because they're so young, partially because of their injury issues and partially because their run was predicated on goaltending and bounces. One loss against the Edmonton Oilers turned a first round series with home ice advantage versus the St. Louis Blues into an away series versus the Chicago Blackhawks.
Yes, the regular season matters.
Vancouver in 5
CHI - CGY
Im obviously going to be writing a bunch more on this series in the next few days. Let's just say, the Flames record against CHI and their performance the last few weeks has been...disquieting.
Chicago in 6.
EC
BOS - MTL
Boston is a quality team that has been smiled upon by the hockey gods all year. Tim Thomas has been out of his mind good and everyone from Krejci to Ryder has had a career year up front. Montreal, on the other hand, came back down to earth after being the chosen club last season. Cary Price has looked like a vulnerable kid more often than not this year and Andrei Markov actually led the team in scoring for a large portion of the season. And now he's injured.
Boston in 6.
WAS - NYR
If the Capitals had someone even slightly better than Jose Theodore in net, they would be juggernauts. Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Federov, Backstrom...they are effing scary.
And while the Rangers have Lundvist, I dont think it'll be enough. Mediocre back-end and not enough depth of fire power to take on the Capitals. I think this'll be a walk.
Washington in 5.
NJD - CAR
The Devils stumbled down the stretch while Carolina went on a tear, but it's hard not to like New Jersey in this one. I think they have superior forward depth and Parise is probably the best player in the series (although Staal isn't too far behind). Ward has finally arrived though, so if Brodeur continues to fade, Carolina could take this one. That's not something I'll bet on, though
New Jersey in 7.
PIT - PHI
This baby is going to be a war. Hard to choose between the two clubs too. I mean, the Penguins have Malkin, Crosby and Gonchar, but the Flyers have several capable forward lines (featuring Richards, Carter, Knuble, Briere, Gagne, Giroux...). Neither team has demonstrably superior goaltending over the other. Let's flip a coin.
Philly in 7.
Here's hoping I beat the damn TSN monkey.
WC
SJS - ANA
This should be an interesting series. San Jose was obviously the better team through most of the season, but the Ducks have really started to come on lately. The Sharks have the greater depth, but I might take Perry/Getzlaf/Ryan as the strongest single trio out of any of the forward groups. And Hiller might be the better goalie.
That said, it's hard to argue against the Presidents Trophy winners. They were the top team in the league for a reason.
Sharks in 7.
DET - CBJ
Looks like a mis-match, no doubt, but I think the Red Wings would have liked to avoid Columbus in the first round. Detroit is exploitable because of their goaltending and the BJ's Hickcockian coaching strategy might be able to take advantage.
Columbus in 7.
VCR - STL
Flames fans...take a look at the favorable first round match-up your team pissed away. Not to take anything away from the Blues - their run and subsequent placing in the WC is remarkable - but they are probably the weakest team in a play-off position. Partially because they're so young, partially because of their injury issues and partially because their run was predicated on goaltending and bounces. One loss against the Edmonton Oilers turned a first round series with home ice advantage versus the St. Louis Blues into an away series versus the Chicago Blackhawks.
Yes, the regular season matters.
Vancouver in 5
CHI - CGY
Im obviously going to be writing a bunch more on this series in the next few days. Let's just say, the Flames record against CHI and their performance the last few weeks has been...disquieting.
Chicago in 6.
EC
BOS - MTL
Boston is a quality team that has been smiled upon by the hockey gods all year. Tim Thomas has been out of his mind good and everyone from Krejci to Ryder has had a career year up front. Montreal, on the other hand, came back down to earth after being the chosen club last season. Cary Price has looked like a vulnerable kid more often than not this year and Andrei Markov actually led the team in scoring for a large portion of the season. And now he's injured.
Boston in 6.
WAS - NYR
If the Capitals had someone even slightly better than Jose Theodore in net, they would be juggernauts. Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Federov, Backstrom...they are effing scary.
And while the Rangers have Lundvist, I dont think it'll be enough. Mediocre back-end and not enough depth of fire power to take on the Capitals. I think this'll be a walk.
Washington in 5.
NJD - CAR
The Devils stumbled down the stretch while Carolina went on a tear, but it's hard not to like New Jersey in this one. I think they have superior forward depth and Parise is probably the best player in the series (although Staal isn't too far behind). Ward has finally arrived though, so if Brodeur continues to fade, Carolina could take this one. That's not something I'll bet on, though
New Jersey in 7.
PIT - PHI
This baby is going to be a war. Hard to choose between the two clubs too. I mean, the Penguins have Malkin, Crosby and Gonchar, but the Flyers have several capable forward lines (featuring Richards, Carter, Knuble, Briere, Gagne, Giroux...). Neither team has demonstrably superior goaltending over the other. Let's flip a coin.
Philly in 7.
Here's hoping I beat the damn TSN monkey.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Congratulations to the Columbus Blue Jackets
CBJ won their first ever play-off spot last night with a 4-3 S/O victory over CHI last night. It'll be the Franchises first ever look at the post-season, 7 long years after they joined the league. The BJs are a team I've been cheering for almost all season, spurred by their underdog status, their addition of Huselius (of whom Im a fan) and the sneaky smart moves of their drastically underrated GM, Scott Howson (a former Oiler asset. Letting him go was another Edmonton misstep I'd say).
If the Flames meet them in the first round, it'll be as close to a win-win scenario for me as fan as is probably possible. I'll be cheering for Calgary of course, but if they fall, I'll take some comfort that Columbus is moving on.
If the Flames meet them in the first round, it'll be as close to a win-win scenario for me as fan as is probably possible. I'll be cheering for Calgary of course, but if they fall, I'll take some comfort that Columbus is moving on.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Where's our bailout??
I've been too focused on other things to rightly look at the Flames ridiculous cap situation recently. You know, the one that has caused the club to send a viable NHLer in Dustin Boyd down to the farm and play with less than a full compliment of players during a fight for the NW division down the stretch drive.
Thankfully, Tom Benjamin takes Sutter to task for his questionable cap management. The best bit:
I thought Sutter was wrong to trade for Jokinen even before this fiasco unfolded. I think it was more wrong today because I think making sure the team has enough money to ice a full team is a fundamental for any GM.
I'll add that some of us saw this coming in October in the wake of the Warrener/Boyd affair. In fact, I disliked the Flames cap position even before the year started.
Myself, I dont think carrying a large amount of cap space is a good idea. If you can reasonably spend a lot of money to build a team, you should. That said, part of managing the cap is establishing and maintaining at least a minimal buffer that will allow you to make big trades or suffer through a rash of injuries (or both) if need be. Sutter failed in this aspect this season and it's hurting the team down the stretch.
The Flames budgetary circumstances would be defensible if Calgary was getting value out of their bloated-cap roster, but, sadly, that's not the case: there are at least 4 highly suspect contracts on this club that are either entirely needless (Warrener, Roy), or grossly inflated (Vandermeer, Primeau).
Darryl needs to get this house in order his off-season. Things will be even tighter next year seeing as the Flames have 14 players signed for nearly $46M. A lot of his problems go away (Warrener, Aucoin) but that won't stop him from making new ones if nothings been learned from this year.
Thankfully, Tom Benjamin takes Sutter to task for his questionable cap management. The best bit:
I thought Sutter was wrong to trade for Jokinen even before this fiasco unfolded. I think it was more wrong today because I think making sure the team has enough money to ice a full team is a fundamental for any GM.
I'll add that some of us saw this coming in October in the wake of the Warrener/Boyd affair. In fact, I disliked the Flames cap position even before the year started.
Myself, I dont think carrying a large amount of cap space is a good idea. If you can reasonably spend a lot of money to build a team, you should. That said, part of managing the cap is establishing and maintaining at least a minimal buffer that will allow you to make big trades or suffer through a rash of injuries (or both) if need be. Sutter failed in this aspect this season and it's hurting the team down the stretch.
The Flames budgetary circumstances would be defensible if Calgary was getting value out of their bloated-cap roster, but, sadly, that's not the case: there are at least 4 highly suspect contracts on this club that are either entirely needless (Warrener, Roy), or grossly inflated (Vandermeer, Primeau).
Darryl needs to get this house in order his off-season. Things will be even tighter next year seeing as the Flames have 14 players signed for nearly $46M. A lot of his problems go away (Warrener, Aucoin) but that won't stop him from making new ones if nothings been learned from this year.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
News and notes, April 7
- Well, while not ideal it certainly is dramatic. Flames versus Canucks tonight with the NW division on the line. The winner will be showered with praise! The loser will be taunted and booed till my throat is sore! Join the fun at my gamethread. There's also Flames Nation, of course.
- OR...you could swing by the Score where I'll be hosting another liveblog this evening. I expect the Canucks trolls to be thick as flies around a hogs head (unless Vancouver starts losing of course).
- I've been writing a weekly fantasy column for rototimes.com/fanball.com for more than year now, but last week's piece was the first time I really got into discussing and explaining advanced metrics. It'll be interesting to see if it's well-received by the more general readership there.
- OR...you could swing by the Score where I'll be hosting another liveblog this evening. I expect the Canucks trolls to be thick as flies around a hogs head (unless Vancouver starts losing of course).
- I've been writing a weekly fantasy column for rototimes.com/fanball.com for more than year now, but last week's piece was the first time I really got into discussing and explaining advanced metrics. It'll be interesting to see if it's well-received by the more general readership there.
Monday, April 06, 2009
A ray of light
A week or two ago, I was compelled to comment over at Sleek's place because the Good Earl was frustrated by his chosen team's money players: Getzlaf, Perry et al. Were being handily outscored by the opposition and the Ducks were in a seeming death spiral:
One specific area that could use some improvement? In the seven games since the trade deadline, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Cristensen have been surrendering even-strength goals at twice the rate that Todd Marchant, Petteri Nokelainen, and Mike Brown have been surrendering goals while shorthanded. The Ducks seemingly would find some easier success if they could stem some of the GA-bleeding from the top line.
Upon reading his (understandably justified) rant, I took a look at ANA's corsi and percentages over the given period of time and discovered the big boys were outshooting the bad guys, but had lousy SH% and SV%. From my comment at the time:
The SV% with Getzlaf on the ice the last 7 games has been .822! For Perry….833. And the SH% for the Ducks with those guys on the ice has been 7 and 8.3% respectively. Those are TERRIBLE rates and it makes me think your big guns have been getting the bad bounces recently.
The day after I made that comment, the Ducks hammered the Avs 7-2 and they've been hot ever since. What happened? The percentages swung back around. Big time:
Getzlaf: .926 SV%, 20.4 SH%
Perry: .933 SV%, 21.6 SH%
Ryan: .915 SV%, 16.3 SH%
Now, I'm not writing this to pat myself on the back or say "I told you so". I bring it up because it seems relevant to the current situation the Flames find themselves in. As you all know, the club has been fighting through it's own bout of offensive doldrums, led in terms of ineffectiveness by the Flames own money players, who have themselves been handily outscored the last few weeks or so. Here's the club's corsi rates and percentages since March 18:
Jarome Iginla: +24, .886 SV%, 5.6 SH%
Olli Jokinen: +17, .884 SV%, 4.3 SH%
Mike Cammalleri: +26, .894 SV%, 4.1 SH%
Now that's bad - probably unsustainably bad. Overall during the period in question, Calgary is +92 in terms corsi, but has a putrid ES PDO (90.3+5.7=96). Kipper isn't making many saves and the opposition has enjoyed a .943% ES SV% in aggregate versus the Flames since the 18th of last month. Add in the sputtering power play and it's stunning that the Flames have won any games at all.
Basically, Calgary has had some shit luck recently. The injuries (and addition of Bertuzzi back into the top 6 ) haven't helped, but one has to assume that the correction is coming sooner or later and pucks are going to start finding the back of the net again. "Sooner" would obviously be preferable, especially with half of the defense corps on the sidelines.
One specific area that could use some improvement? In the seven games since the trade deadline, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Cristensen have been surrendering even-strength goals at twice the rate that Todd Marchant, Petteri Nokelainen, and Mike Brown have been surrendering goals while shorthanded. The Ducks seemingly would find some easier success if they could stem some of the GA-bleeding from the top line.
Upon reading his (understandably justified) rant, I took a look at ANA's corsi and percentages over the given period of time and discovered the big boys were outshooting the bad guys, but had lousy SH% and SV%. From my comment at the time:
The SV% with Getzlaf on the ice the last 7 games has been .822! For Perry….833. And the SH% for the Ducks with those guys on the ice has been 7 and 8.3% respectively. Those are TERRIBLE rates and it makes me think your big guns have been getting the bad bounces recently.
The day after I made that comment, the Ducks hammered the Avs 7-2 and they've been hot ever since. What happened? The percentages swung back around. Big time:
Getzlaf: .926 SV%, 20.4 SH%
Perry: .933 SV%, 21.6 SH%
Ryan: .915 SV%, 16.3 SH%
Now, I'm not writing this to pat myself on the back or say "I told you so". I bring it up because it seems relevant to the current situation the Flames find themselves in. As you all know, the club has been fighting through it's own bout of offensive doldrums, led in terms of ineffectiveness by the Flames own money players, who have themselves been handily outscored the last few weeks or so. Here's the club's corsi rates and percentages since March 18:
Jarome Iginla: +24, .886 SV%, 5.6 SH%
Olli Jokinen: +17, .884 SV%, 4.3 SH%
Mike Cammalleri: +26, .894 SV%, 4.1 SH%
Now that's bad - probably unsustainably bad. Overall during the period in question, Calgary is +92 in terms corsi, but has a putrid ES PDO (90.3+5.7=96). Kipper isn't making many saves and the opposition has enjoyed a .943% ES SV% in aggregate versus the Flames since the 18th of last month. Add in the sputtering power play and it's stunning that the Flames have won any games at all.
Basically, Calgary has had some shit luck recently. The injuries (and addition of Bertuzzi back into the top 6 ) haven't helped, but one has to assume that the correction is coming sooner or later and pucks are going to start finding the back of the net again. "Sooner" would obviously be preferable, especially with half of the defense corps on the sidelines.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Leland Irving: comparables
Projecting goalies is extremely difficult. Their development road is far more difficult than skaters and their performance stats are team dependent. And, unlike skaters, it's a lot harder to put their output in context of team effects - for example, a PPG skater on an offensively challenged team tells you something. Or a guy with a -2 rating on a club that's -30 at ES also tells you something. But, it's hard to say to what a degree a goalie's lackluster stats are his or his teams in isolation. Especially when it comes to lower leagues like the AHL and Junior where stuff like ES SV%, PK SV%, SQN% (shot quality neutral SV%) and quality of shots against aren't available.
Leland Iriving was the Flames first round pick in 2006. He had a decent Junior career, although he played in very friendly circumstances: his WHL squad (Everett Silvertips) was one of the best teams in the league in terms of deterring goals against.
Over at Jonathan's place, Irving was brought up and JW mentioned his stats so far this year look fairly decent. It occurred to me that I had no context in which to place Irving's rookie efforts, so I decided to look up some comparable from the big leagues to see where he placed.
Problem being, not a lot of NHL guys played in the AHL as a 20 year old. Some were in other leagues across the pond, some were still in college and some had already made the dance. Let's work with what we ahve and see where he lands anyways...
First, though, let's compare Irving to his teammates. That is, the other guys who have played goal for the QC Flames this year:
Leland Irving: 44GP, 2.26 GAA, 0.912 SV%
Matt Keetley: 32GP, 2.84 GAA, 0.893 SV%
Kevin Lalande: 6GP, 1.92 GAA, 0.929 SV%
Irving took over the #1 job from Keetley a couple months into the season and has been the farm club's starter since. Lalande's results are excellent, but sullied by a small sample size (although, he's putting up similar numbers for the Syracuse Crunch since he was dealt). Both Lalande and Keetley are older than Irving as well (by one and two years respectively). Curtis MceLhinney's rookie AHL SV% was also .912, although he was older at the time (having come via the college route).
Now, here's Irving's 20 year old AHL season as compared to some existing NHL 'tenders.
Some guys played more games than others in the above comparison. Ward, for example, played 50 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters in 04/05. Halak, in contrast, played just 13 games in 05/06 for Hamilton.
The obvious caveats aside, this comparison seems to speak somewhat favorably of Irving. He's not in the realm of Ward or Lehtonen, but he's ahead of guys like Budaj and Raycroft. That said, his results thus far don't suggest an elite ceiling to me. his .912 SV% is slightly above the mean (.910) of the guys mentioned.
Finally, here's Iriving results relative to his draft cohort (only those with AHL results included):
This look isn't as encouraging. The three guys drafted in the first round with Irving are having better years in terms of SV% (Helenius, Varlamov and Bernier). Four other guys picked later than Irving (Mason, Dekanich, Atkoff and Enroth) are also ahead of Leland by this metric. His SV% is also slightly below the mean found here (.914). Of course, this comparison excludes guys who are still in lower leagues (NCAA, Junior, etc.) so at least it can be assumed that Irving is ahead of those guys.
Obviously, there's lots and lots of development time left for Irving so there's still tons of data to be yielded. However, looking at this first round draft pick right now elicits a big "meh" from me. Nothing suggests to me - again, as of right now - that Irving is necessarily Kiprusoff's heir apparent as the Flames future starter. His results so far look "good", but hardly elite. I'll leave it up to you to decide if that was worth a first rounder or not.
Leland Iriving was the Flames first round pick in 2006. He had a decent Junior career, although he played in very friendly circumstances: his WHL squad (Everett Silvertips) was one of the best teams in the league in terms of deterring goals against.
Over at Jonathan's place, Irving was brought up and JW mentioned his stats so far this year look fairly decent. It occurred to me that I had no context in which to place Irving's rookie efforts, so I decided to look up some comparable from the big leagues to see where he placed.
Problem being, not a lot of NHL guys played in the AHL as a 20 year old. Some were in other leagues across the pond, some were still in college and some had already made the dance. Let's work with what we ahve and see where he lands anyways...
First, though, let's compare Irving to his teammates. That is, the other guys who have played goal for the QC Flames this year:
Leland Irving: 44GP, 2.26 GAA, 0.912 SV%
Matt Keetley: 32GP, 2.84 GAA, 0.893 SV%
Kevin Lalande: 6GP, 1.92 GAA, 0.929 SV%
Irving took over the #1 job from Keetley a couple months into the season and has been the farm club's starter since. Lalande's results are excellent, but sullied by a small sample size (although, he's putting up similar numbers for the Syracuse Crunch since he was dealt). Both Lalande and Keetley are older than Irving as well (by one and two years respectively). Curtis MceLhinney's rookie AHL SV% was also .912, although he was older at the time (having come via the college route).
Now, here's Irving's 20 year old AHL season as compared to some existing NHL 'tenders.
Some guys played more games than others in the above comparison. Ward, for example, played 50 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters in 04/05. Halak, in contrast, played just 13 games in 05/06 for Hamilton.
The obvious caveats aside, this comparison seems to speak somewhat favorably of Irving. He's not in the realm of Ward or Lehtonen, but he's ahead of guys like Budaj and Raycroft. That said, his results thus far don't suggest an elite ceiling to me. his .912 SV% is slightly above the mean (.910) of the guys mentioned.
Finally, here's Iriving results relative to his draft cohort (only those with AHL results included):
This look isn't as encouraging. The three guys drafted in the first round with Irving are having better years in terms of SV% (Helenius, Varlamov and Bernier). Four other guys picked later than Irving (Mason, Dekanich, Atkoff and Enroth) are also ahead of Leland by this metric. His SV% is also slightly below the mean found here (.914). Of course, this comparison excludes guys who are still in lower leagues (NCAA, Junior, etc.) so at least it can be assumed that Irving is ahead of those guys.
Obviously, there's lots and lots of development time left for Irving so there's still tons of data to be yielded. However, looking at this first round draft pick right now elicits a big "meh" from me. Nothing suggests to me - again, as of right now - that Irving is necessarily Kiprusoff's heir apparent as the Flames future starter. His results so far look "good", but hardly elite. I'll leave it up to you to decide if that was worth a first rounder or not.
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