Awhile ago, I put up a post on offensive defensemen and how I thought it was inefficient to spend money on goals from the blueline when the dollars could be put towards forwards. The point that I struggled to communicate was forwards probably do more to drive results from straight up scoring to outshooting and possession. In contrast, many defensemen (and their results) are subject to circumstances: who they play against, who they play behind, where they start, etc. Which would mean that paying a whole bunch of money for points from the back-end is just you rewarding a coach for sheltering a defender or playing him 5 minutes a night on the PP as much as anything else.
Anyways, to further illustrate, I tried to put my theory to practice this summer in the CLS Fantasy draft, which was basically a re-drafting of the league across 30 different writers/bloggers. The draft order was random and the salary cap was in effect. Let's get to the team first and justifications after:
Ovechkin - M. Koivu - Elias
Huselius - Langkow - C. Armstrong
Dawes - Boyd - Moss
Prust - Backlund - Eaves
Matrin - Hamhuis
Hejda - Sarich
Gervais - Pardy
Biron
Schneider
I was gifted the first overall choice which was both a blessing and curse, especially in a draft like this which literally had days and days between choices.
Anyways, stuff I focused on:
- Spending money on top 6 forwards that were either proven outscorers (Ovechkin, Elias, Langkow, Koivu) or at least drivers of possession (Moss, Armstrong). PP ability was also considered (Huselius).
- Looking for guys that are good bets to outperform their contracts in the bottom half of the forward roster. Backlund probably doesn't fit in here, but he was one of the last picks and - at that point in the draft - I wasn't interested in scouring draft lists for a good fit.
- Finding value contracts on the back-end. Usually, I looked for guys who had proven they could play against the tough sledding in the past, at least as far as the top 4 were concerned. I also made sure to mix in some puck moving/skating ability and guys who have played on the PP (Martin, Hamhuis, Gervais).
- Like the bottom end of the roatation up front, I simply looked for good value guys who had a chance to improve for the 3rd pairing.
- To find decent, median level goaltending for cheap. I grabbed Schneider late in the draft because I figure he would have a decent shot at eventually usurping Biron. If not, the duo would only cost 2.48M anyways.
What I didn't worry about:
- Size
- "Truculence"
- Enforcers
- Stanley Cup rings
- Nation of birth
How the money was spent:
Forwards - $35.508M in cap space. A huge portion of that was invested in the top 6, obviously. Notice I have 8 forwards who have managed 20+ goals at least once in their careers (and a couple more that are good bets to eventually meet that mark).
Defense - 12.874. My most expensive defender was the criminally under-appreciated Paul Martin at 3.8333M, even though each one of my top four blueliners is or has been a top 2 defenseman in terms of quality of competition in his career.
Goaltending - 2.4842
Total - 50.87. Remaining cap space = 6.133M
The draft petered out before I could fill the final 2 or 3 spots with press-box guys, so the remaining cap space is marginally inflated. That said, I was somewhat surprised to see I could basically spend wildly up front and still end up with so much money left over. Guys like Elias and Huselius were available later in the draft because of their relatively unattractive contracts, so I was able to snag them thanks to my strategy of assigning money to the forwards before defense. Were this actually my team, I would probably seek toinvest most of those savings in another quality forward to better fill out that third line, although Dawes/Boyd/Moss would probably do well against third tier opposition anyways. One could probably swap Huselius and Elias in the top 6, depending on match-ups as well.
Unfortunately, there's no real way to prove that this line-up would would perform well in the real world, but it looks good on paper to me (aside from Backlund, who probably can't even hold water on a 4th line in the NHL yet). I think all three forward units are a good bet to move the puck in the right direction, while the admittedly unspectacular blueline would be at least competent at both ends of the ice.
