Well, this is certainly a better ten game end-point than the one I envisioned after the 1-3-1 start to the season. The five game turn around has the Flames jousting with the Wild at the top of division and looking better than they probably ever have under Sutter during the month of October.
While 10 games is still a fairly small sample size, I figure it's a round enough number to stop and look at some of the trends so far.
Special Teams:
I predicted this summer that some of the Flames personnel moves would result in improved play on the PP and PK. So far so good. Calgary is ranked 5th (22.6%) and 6th (86.5%) in each respectively.
Both started out on the wrong foot in Vancouver, but have steadily improved since. The power-play has more options on the point with the additions of Cammalleri and Giordano, while the improvements of Boyd and Moss has given the club to relatively solid units two work with. As a result, six players are above the 4 PPP/60 mark right now.
The PK's improvement has a lot to do with Kipper snapping out of his reverie quicker than usual, although that might be selling the contributions of guys like Regehr, Sarich and, yes, Wayne Primeau, short. They all have GAon/60 numbers below 6, with Primeau leading the way at 2.24. At this time last year, Regehr and crew were at about 12 to give some context to the figures...
Even-strength
My other prediction coming into the year was that the Flames would be mediocre at even-strength. And while the execution hasn't necessarily been noteworthy through the first ten games, the underlying numbers are stellar. Vic Ferrari provided this link recently, which shows the Flames Corsi rates as well as the even-strength SV% for/against with each player on the ice.
Notables:
Calgary is +106 in terms of shots directed at net through the first ten. And that's with guys like Iginla (+27) and Bertuzzi (+11) struggling relative to expectations. Giordano (+62!), Boyd (+41), Cammalleri (+34), Moss (+35), Phaneuf (+45) and Langkow (+55) have been carrying the mail in terms of ES possession.
ES SV% can give you an idea of who has been lucky/unlucky. For exmaple, Boyd has a +41 corsi rate, but the for/against SV% are lower than average on both sides. One would expect that to change if the kid keeps outplaying the opposition to this degree over the long haul.
Vic has added an imaginary #99 player, who, in his own words "represents the results when Bertuzzi and Iginla are both on the ice together". The numbers are all ugly and one starts to get the sense that Bertuzzi is the weak link at ES, especially watching him dangle for it's own sake the last couple of matches. Vic continues:
Iggy sans Bert: Corsi +28.
And I'm assuming that Iginla is playing a lot of tough minutes, regardless of linemate. And Bertuzzi only when he is on Iginla's line.
Langkow is the guy who has been saddled with Bertuzzi the most, it would appear.
Flames 99, the 'Bert without Langkow' player, is the only player on the Flames squad with negative underlying numbers. Langkow does much, much better without Todd.
After 10 games, Bertuzzi has the second lowest corsi rate of any regular forward, a ESP/60 number well below the "mendoza line" (0.99), a miserable GFON/60 figure (0.99) and the worst +/- on the team (-6). Keep in mind, he plays a lot with some pretty good players (Iginla, Langkow, Cammalleri).
This is the Bertuzzi I expected to get. His 6 goals in 6 games were nice, but had the strong scent of "right place, right time" to all of them. It looks like he's going to be a guy the team will have to try to hide all year. If he continues in this manner, I propose a new nickname: "sore thumb".
Shot blocking
The Flames have blocked 49 shots so far this season, an average of just 4.9 per game. They've given up 294 shots total, meaning they've managed to get in front of just 14.2% of the shots directed at their net so far. That's a surprisingly small number, but given the recent results, it apparently doesn't matter that much. I'll keep my eye on this as the year progresses anyways, though.
The ten game all-stars:
- Dustin Boyd - kid doesn't have all-star results, but he's really seems to have taken a step or two forward this season. He led the Flames with 7 shots on net against the Bruins last night has been getting top 6 type ES ice-time since Lombardi went down.
- Rene Bourque - New addition has been full value so far. While his hands are little suspect, he tends to drive results with speed, grit and strong board work.
- Mike Cammalleri - Still looks a little tentative at times, Cammalleri has managed to put up points anyways, despite so-so ice time at ES. Second to only Iginla on the team in terms of output.
- Mark Giordano - Playing minimal minutes against soft competition, Giordano has some decent underlying stats (and some bad ones too) but is an obvious improvement over the likes of Hale, Zyuzin, Eriksson and - yes - Warrener. He'll get more PP ice time/points once Keenan figures out that all Aucoin does these days is shoot pucks into shin pads.
- David Moss - Another support player getting the job done. Moss looks faster this season and has always been strong on the puck. Quietly and effectively gets the job done and moves the puck in the right direction.
- Dion Phaneuf - Shaky start to the year for sure, Dion seems to have settled down. He's got 9 points already and averages nearly 30 minutes a night. His game looks a lot less chaotic without Eriksson at his side.
- Robyn Regehr - Already driving positive results against tough competition, Regehr has a miniscule 1.39 GAON/60 figure, despite seeing the big boys night in, night out.
The could-be-betters:
- Todd Bertuzzi - explained.
- Jarome Iginla - Not fair to put he big guy here with 13 points in 11 games, I know. Plus he's been saddled with guys like Conroy and Bertuzzi for a lot of the time.
Still, Jarome's play and numbers are off. His ESP of 2.21 is meh (for him) and the team is in the red with him on the ice thus far (2.65 GFON/60, 3.53 GAON/60). When he's coupled with Bert, Iginla seems to spend a lot of time on the periphery, trying in vain to make cute plays and high risk passes.
The good news is, his output is still pretty decent despite some fairly average stats otherwise. Things will change, especially when Bertuzzi and/or Conroy get demoted.
- Craig Conroy - Had to know this was coming. Conroy has spent a lot of time making big, glaring errors in his own end this young season. To be fair, I object more to his role than his play, really - I think he would make a fine 14 minute/night 3rd liner. No more Connie on the first line (or PP) please.
He's kicked ass in the face-off circle, though.
- Adrian Aucoin - Still immobile, plays against nobodies, gets scored on a lot, doesn't score much, gets his shots blocked all the time, benefits from line mates. He's not horrible by any stretch, but he ain't worth $4M.
Everyone else kinda falls in-between for me.
Please keep in mind, this all based on a small sample size. That caveat given, I like the direction the club is heading...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Gameday: Flames vs. Bruins
Under Claude Julien, the Bruins have become the Wicked Wild of the East: cruel, meticulous and offense choking. I've watched them a bit this year and they'll often send one guy in to forecheck (he wont pass the top of the circles) and then line-up 4 guys, foose-ball-like, on their side of the red-line. Coming from behind on this club would be like wrestling a bear in a phone booth.
Boston is riding a two-game shut-out streak, with Tim Thomas being the current SV% leader in the NHL as a result (.943%). Even though he put up good numbers last year (despite being a fairly unorthodox 'tender) that save rate is obviously unsustainable. Of course, when it comes to bubbles and their inevitable bursting, there's no guarantee that the pin will be applied tonight. Still -- the Bruins are due to give a up a boatload sooner or later (trap or no trap). Maybe it'll be tonight.
On the Flames side, not sure how the lines will work out, although it wouldn't surprise me to see Conroy start out on the third unit with Boyd back among the top 6. If it ain't broke don't fix it, right?
Course, it'll all depend on how Keenan wants to match things up. Boston actually has some decent weaponry in Savard (who has turned into quite the player the last few years), Bergeron, Sturm, Kessel (looks like he's turned the corner) and the much celebrated behemoth Milan Lucic. I would assume one of Conroy or Iginla will see Savard with everything else falling into place from there. Jarome will also have to tussle with Zdeno Chara tonight who is just a fierce, fierce presence to play against. Iginla still isn't in top form, but it's something Im interested to see anyways, mainly because these guys don't see each other too often.
Prediction - Flames 3, Bruins 2. Boyd and Cammalleri (2) for Calgary, Ference and Yelle (!) for Boston.
Go Flames!
Boston Perspectives here and here.
Boston is riding a two-game shut-out streak, with Tim Thomas being the current SV% leader in the NHL as a result (.943%). Even though he put up good numbers last year (despite being a fairly unorthodox 'tender) that save rate is obviously unsustainable. Of course, when it comes to bubbles and their inevitable bursting, there's no guarantee that the pin will be applied tonight. Still -- the Bruins are due to give a up a boatload sooner or later (trap or no trap). Maybe it'll be tonight.
On the Flames side, not sure how the lines will work out, although it wouldn't surprise me to see Conroy start out on the third unit with Boyd back among the top 6. If it ain't broke don't fix it, right?
Course, it'll all depend on how Keenan wants to match things up. Boston actually has some decent weaponry in Savard (who has turned into quite the player the last few years), Bergeron, Sturm, Kessel (looks like he's turned the corner) and the much celebrated behemoth Milan Lucic. I would assume one of Conroy or Iginla will see Savard with everything else falling into place from there. Jarome will also have to tussle with Zdeno Chara tonight who is just a fierce, fierce presence to play against. Iginla still isn't in top form, but it's something Im interested to see anyways, mainly because these guys don't see each other too often.
Prediction - Flames 3, Bruins 2. Boyd and Cammalleri (2) for Calgary, Ference and Yelle (!) for Boston.
Go Flames!
Boston Perspectives here and here.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
How apropos
It may not have been the most entertaining game last night, but damn was it ever a thorough and comprehensive victory (despite the fact that the first goal was scored half way through the third period). The Flames simply dominated the Avalanche most of the evening, despite the fact that Jarmoe made another appearance and Bertuzzi looked every bit like the floating non-entity that I expected when he was acquired.
The fact of the matter is, the Flames depth carried the mail against a fairly good team last night, which is perhaps the most heartening development in this early season. That is something that simply couldn't have happened last year (or the year before), given the black hole of inescapable suck that was the end of the roster.
Perhaps the most topical performance, given my post from yesterday on the subject, was the play of Dustin Boyd. By my eye, he was the Flames best forward in the first period. Keenan saw it too, and elevated the youngster up from the third unit to play with Iginla for most of the evening. Again, the results weren't there for the kid (ended the night 0-0-0 +1), but that's just straight luck. Dude created half a dozen quality scoring chances at least, including an open net that was tapped wide by Nyzerman on a short-handed 2-on-1. If Boyd keeps having nights in which he out-shoots the bad guys by 20 (!!), the points will come.
Other noteworthy performances from last night include: Moss (+15, assist on GWG), Giordano (+16...again) and Bourque (+8, two points). Notice that these guys were either not here last season, or were stuck with nominal playing time? Yeah...I can get behind this "depth" thing.
I can't decide if Im more impressed with the play of guys like Boyd and Bourque...or the fact the Keenan recognizes it too and is rewarding the players accordingly. Iron Mike started the night off with his security blanket Conroy centering Iginla. After the first, when it was clear that guys like Moss, Boyd and Glencross were "on", he demoted Conroy and reduced the ice-time of the under-performing "stars". Boyd ended up with 16:22 of ice, more than Cammalleri and Conroy, and just a hair below favorites like Langkow and Bertuzzi. Glencross was up around 15 minutes too, and even skated a few shifts with Jarome in the third.
Moss is still stuck at the 10:00 minute mark (Keenan hasn't taken a shine to him yet), but that won't last if he keeps playing like he did last night. A goal and +15 corsi in 9 minutes of ES ice is tough to ignore. I dont think Matt's favorite player will be scratched in favor of goons or pluggers this season.
Overall, mark me down as "pleased". I haven't had to talk about poor defensive play or goaltending in a couple of games and it's really starting to look like some of the support guys are going to handily out-perform their contracts this season. Good stuff.
The fact of the matter is, the Flames depth carried the mail against a fairly good team last night, which is perhaps the most heartening development in this early season. That is something that simply couldn't have happened last year (or the year before), given the black hole of inescapable suck that was the end of the roster.
Perhaps the most topical performance, given my post from yesterday on the subject, was the play of Dustin Boyd. By my eye, he was the Flames best forward in the first period. Keenan saw it too, and elevated the youngster up from the third unit to play with Iginla for most of the evening. Again, the results weren't there for the kid (ended the night 0-0-0 +1), but that's just straight luck. Dude created half a dozen quality scoring chances at least, including an open net that was tapped wide by Nyzerman on a short-handed 2-on-1. If Boyd keeps having nights in which he out-shoots the bad guys by 20 (!!), the points will come.
Other noteworthy performances from last night include: Moss (+15, assist on GWG), Giordano (+16...again) and Bourque (+8, two points). Notice that these guys were either not here last season, or were stuck with nominal playing time? Yeah...I can get behind this "depth" thing.
I can't decide if Im more impressed with the play of guys like Boyd and Bourque...or the fact the Keenan recognizes it too and is rewarding the players accordingly. Iron Mike started the night off with his security blanket Conroy centering Iginla. After the first, when it was clear that guys like Moss, Boyd and Glencross were "on", he demoted Conroy and reduced the ice-time of the under-performing "stars". Boyd ended up with 16:22 of ice, more than Cammalleri and Conroy, and just a hair below favorites like Langkow and Bertuzzi. Glencross was up around 15 minutes too, and even skated a few shifts with Jarome in the third.
Moss is still stuck at the 10:00 minute mark (Keenan hasn't taken a shine to him yet), but that won't last if he keeps playing like he did last night. A goal and +15 corsi in 9 minutes of ES ice is tough to ignore. I dont think Matt's favorite player will be scratched in favor of goons or pluggers this season.
Overall, mark me down as "pleased". I haven't had to talk about poor defensive play or goaltending in a couple of games and it's really starting to look like some of the support guys are going to handily out-perform their contracts this season. Good stuff.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Flames Gameday: Avs again
Since their last encounter in which Kipper and Budaj tried to out-suck each other, both teams have gone on nice little runs, culminating in Iginla and Budaj being named the first and second stars of the week respectively.
The Avalanche have been getting a lot of scoring from their number one line of Stastny, Hejduk and Smyth, while secondary guns such as Sakic and Wolski have been chipping in as well. Colorado has the 2nd best GF/G average in the league (3.62), with 18 of their 29 goals coming at ES. The Flames are averaging over 3 goals a game as well, although, as JF from Inside the Flames notes, they are thoroughly mediocre at 5on5 (13 GF, 18 GA, -5 GD).
That number is skewed by that ugly season opener against the Canucks, but it's not like the team has made up much ground since. That's about what I expect out the Flames this year though, and it's something I discussed at great length during the summer: Calgary is likely to be, at best, just okay at ES this season. Success will come via strong special teams. Good news everyone! The special teams are off to the best start in recent memory, although the sample size is too small to get excited over (Minnesota's PK is currently 100%, for example).
Of interest tonight will be what happens with the line combos. I believe it was something like:
Bourque-Conroy-Iginla
Cammalleri-Langkow-Bert
Glencross-Boyd-Moss
Pluggers
in Phoenix and may look something like that again this evening considering the level of success the club enjoyed in the desert. Although, as I've noted, Keenan likes to elevate Conroy on the road because he figures Jarome's going to catch the toughest match-ups anyways. That happened against the Coyotes with Bourque/Conroy/Iggy seeing Doan and Jokinen for most of the evening.
At home, Iron Mike can control his match-ups a bit better, so he tries to get Iginla out against weaker sisters. As a result he usually gives Jarome the more "offensive" (read: less defensive) linemates in order to fully exploit the miss match. As such, you may see Langkow and Bert or Cammalleri move back up, with Conroy dropping down to a "checker" position. A confounding variable may be Lombardi's injury, resulting in a indefinite promotion for the old man until Lombo returns. I guess we'll see.
Prediction - Flames 3, Avs 1. Iginla, Boyd and Bourque for Calgary. Sakic for Colorado.
Go Flames!
The Avalanche have been getting a lot of scoring from their number one line of Stastny, Hejduk and Smyth, while secondary guns such as Sakic and Wolski have been chipping in as well. Colorado has the 2nd best GF/G average in the league (3.62), with 18 of their 29 goals coming at ES. The Flames are averaging over 3 goals a game as well, although, as JF from Inside the Flames notes, they are thoroughly mediocre at 5on5 (13 GF, 18 GA, -5 GD).
That number is skewed by that ugly season opener against the Canucks, but it's not like the team has made up much ground since. That's about what I expect out the Flames this year though, and it's something I discussed at great length during the summer: Calgary is likely to be, at best, just okay at ES this season. Success will come via strong special teams. Good news everyone! The special teams are off to the best start in recent memory, although the sample size is too small to get excited over (Minnesota's PK is currently 100%, for example).
Of interest tonight will be what happens with the line combos. I believe it was something like:
Bourque-Conroy-Iginla
Cammalleri-Langkow-Bert
Glencross-Boyd-Moss
Pluggers
in Phoenix and may look something like that again this evening considering the level of success the club enjoyed in the desert. Although, as I've noted, Keenan likes to elevate Conroy on the road because he figures Jarome's going to catch the toughest match-ups anyways. That happened against the Coyotes with Bourque/Conroy/Iggy seeing Doan and Jokinen for most of the evening.
At home, Iron Mike can control his match-ups a bit better, so he tries to get Iginla out against weaker sisters. As a result he usually gives Jarome the more "offensive" (read: less defensive) linemates in order to fully exploit the miss match. As such, you may see Langkow and Bert or Cammalleri move back up, with Conroy dropping down to a "checker" position. A confounding variable may be Lombardi's injury, resulting in a indefinite promotion for the old man until Lombo returns. I guess we'll see.
Prediction - Flames 3, Avs 1. Iginla, Boyd and Bourque for Calgary. Sakic for Colorado.
Go Flames!
So far in review
So the Flames are slowly righting the ship after a shaky 1-3-1 start. Iginla has his groove back, Kipper has starter-like stats through the last couple and it sounds like Regehr and Phaneuf are rounding into form.
Unfortunately, Im going to rain on the parade a little here. Calgary's schedule through the first couple of weeks was, well...buttery soft. Canucks X2, Oilers X2, Colorado, Washington, Nashville and Phoenix. There are two, maybe three play-off teams in that mix and not a one of them is what I'd dub "elite". The Red Wings, Sharks, Canadiens, Wild(s), Sabres and Rangers all await. It's one thing to be nominally above .500 versus fringe teams and basement dwellers. It's another to put up wins against the big boys.
On the other hand, the Flames are at least trending in the right direction. The special teams have recovered and are putting up good rates (PP 21.3%, PK 85.1%). The shooting rates and corsi numbers for most of the team are in the black and even guys like Primeau and Prust have been looking somewhat useful recently.
Anyways, here's some quirks of the opening 8 games that I've noticed and may as well pass along.
- Mark Giordano has been dropped from the 2nd pairing after some initial struggles and his ice-time has diminished as a result. I think he's still got some things to learn, being a sophomore, but I also think he's been a bit unlucky so far. His corsi number is an eye-popping +16.2, which is the best of any regular skater on the team. He hasn't really been rewarded in the points column for those efforts yet, garnering just two assists, but he tends to generate a lot of scoring chances when he's on the ice due to his skating, vision and uncanny ability to keep the puck in at the blueline. If he can speed up his decision making in the defensive zone, he could be a legit top 4 puck mover. If not, his ceiling may be Tom Preissing.
- Dustin Boyd looks great to my eye so far, but his numbers are crap. He's another guy that seems to get scored on whenever he's out there, whether he's at fault or not. Case in point: he had just stepped onto the ice when Ben Guite bounced that fluke goal over Kipper's shoulder during the Colorado game. He was also on the ice for The Coyotes lone goal Saturday night - and by that I mean he was literally *on the ice* because Todd Fedoruk apparently ran over him in the neutral zone during a line change.
I earnestly hope that Boyd starts to get rewarded for his efforts, because I think he's doing a lot right and things will turn in his favor if he just continues on his current path. The problem with young players - especially young players on a Keenan squad - is that they inevitably begin to try to change things if the results aren't there right away. Boyd just needs to keep doing what he's doing, however, and I hope that's what happens. The good news is his opportunity to contribute and stick with better linemates is expanded thanks to Lombardi's injury.
- Rene Bourque is quietly becoming a Keenan favorite I think. The guy has been top 6 through the first 8 games and even played with Iginla in Phoenix. This is something I thought may happen in the off-season, given that Bourque proved he could keep his head above water against stiff competition with the Blackhawks last year. His QUAL COMP figure isn't up there but that'll change pretty quick. All his other numbers are stellar though, from his corsi (+9.6), ESP (2.06) and GD/60 (+2.74).
Bourque doesn't seem to have the softest hands in the world, but he does almost everything else well. He's relatively fast, good in the corners and I've only seen one obvious error by him in the defensive zone so far this season (which is about 10 less than I've seen out of old Craig Conroy). All arrows are pointing in the right direction so far.
Unfortunately, Im going to rain on the parade a little here. Calgary's schedule through the first couple of weeks was, well...buttery soft. Canucks X2, Oilers X2, Colorado, Washington, Nashville and Phoenix. There are two, maybe three play-off teams in that mix and not a one of them is what I'd dub "elite". The Red Wings, Sharks, Canadiens, Wild(s), Sabres and Rangers all await. It's one thing to be nominally above .500 versus fringe teams and basement dwellers. It's another to put up wins against the big boys.
On the other hand, the Flames are at least trending in the right direction. The special teams have recovered and are putting up good rates (PP 21.3%, PK 85.1%). The shooting rates and corsi numbers for most of the team are in the black and even guys like Primeau and Prust have been looking somewhat useful recently.
Anyways, here's some quirks of the opening 8 games that I've noticed and may as well pass along.
- Mark Giordano has been dropped from the 2nd pairing after some initial struggles and his ice-time has diminished as a result. I think he's still got some things to learn, being a sophomore, but I also think he's been a bit unlucky so far. His corsi number is an eye-popping +16.2, which is the best of any regular skater on the team. He hasn't really been rewarded in the points column for those efforts yet, garnering just two assists, but he tends to generate a lot of scoring chances when he's on the ice due to his skating, vision and uncanny ability to keep the puck in at the blueline. If he can speed up his decision making in the defensive zone, he could be a legit top 4 puck mover. If not, his ceiling may be Tom Preissing.
- Dustin Boyd looks great to my eye so far, but his numbers are crap. He's another guy that seems to get scored on whenever he's out there, whether he's at fault or not. Case in point: he had just stepped onto the ice when Ben Guite bounced that fluke goal over Kipper's shoulder during the Colorado game. He was also on the ice for The Coyotes lone goal Saturday night - and by that I mean he was literally *on the ice* because Todd Fedoruk apparently ran over him in the neutral zone during a line change.
I earnestly hope that Boyd starts to get rewarded for his efforts, because I think he's doing a lot right and things will turn in his favor if he just continues on his current path. The problem with young players - especially young players on a Keenan squad - is that they inevitably begin to try to change things if the results aren't there right away. Boyd just needs to keep doing what he's doing, however, and I hope that's what happens. The good news is his opportunity to contribute and stick with better linemates is expanded thanks to Lombardi's injury.
- Rene Bourque is quietly becoming a Keenan favorite I think. The guy has been top 6 through the first 8 games and even played with Iginla in Phoenix. This is something I thought may happen in the off-season, given that Bourque proved he could keep his head above water against stiff competition with the Blackhawks last year. His QUAL COMP figure isn't up there but that'll change pretty quick. All his other numbers are stellar though, from his corsi (+9.6), ESP (2.06) and GD/60 (+2.74).
Bourque doesn't seem to have the softest hands in the world, but he does almost everything else well. He's relatively fast, good in the corners and I've only seen one obvious error by him in the defensive zone so far this season (which is about 10 less than I've seen out of old Craig Conroy). All arrows are pointing in the right direction so far.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Flames/Coyotes highlight package
I didn't get to see the game last night, but found this highlight package offered by the NHL to be pretty good. No music, talking heads or commentary...just the action. For those who also missed the game...enjoy.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Flames in the Desert
Not too much to say about tonight. Flames are the better team on paper, though there isn't much separating the two clubs statistically as of right now. Both have a negative GD, neither has overly impressive special teams.
Good news - Jarome broke out last game and he almost always kicks the crap out of Phoenix. In fact, I believe his first career four goal game came against this team (well...not this team, but this Franchise).
In addition, Miikka Kiprusoff has put together two straight solid performances. Yay! It would make sense to put the kid in tonight, considering Kipper has played 7 straight and the quality of the competition, but we all know that isn't going to happen now that it seems like he's on a roll.
Bad news - Matthew Lombardi won't be in the line-up tonight, still suffering from an "upper body injury" due to a collision with Arnott the other night.
I dont know what that will do to the line combinations, although Im hoping to see Boyd move up into the top 6 in Lombo's absence. That will also mean that one of Nystrom or Roy will be drawing in this evening (probably Roy considering the Coyotes puglisit packed roster).
Also, the Flames are currently the most penalized team in the league, averaging 23.7 PIM/game (!). I looked at penalty differentials this summer and decided that the Flames could improve their ST output this season by becoming more disciplined (ie; taking less penalties than they draw). Clearly that hasn't happened yet. Luckily, there are some very easy ways for the club to cut down on their PIM going forward:
1.) Stop retaliating to big hits.
If a guy cheap-shots Iginla, or elbows Boyd or runs Kipper or hits Flame player X from behind, then sure...take offense, grab the offender and feed him some knuckle justice. But jumping guys after big, clean hits is just landing the team in penalty trouble. Cut it out. Im looking at you, Bourque and Prust.
2.) Cut down on the stupid minors already. Calgary has 47 minor penalties in 7 games played thus far.
In Edmonton, Bertuzzi was penalized for sticking out his foot and tripping some random Oiler in the neutral zone. The puck wasn't anywhere near the play. It was a needless act and stupid move, especially when you're, you know, Todd Bertuzzi and have a giant, glowing "watch me" sign buzzing above your head all game.
Craig Conroy has also been up to his old tricks so far, managing five minors. He became famous for taking needless stick penalties (hooking, high sticking) at the most inopportune times last season and has continued that bad habit this year. He couldn't seem to help it last year, so we might be stuck with that again this year.
Im hoping the boys smarten up, although it probably wont happen tonight. A team featuring Carcillo, Fedoruk, McGrattan, Jovonovski and Doan is built to evoke penalties.
Prediction - Jarome shows up again. Flames 3, Coyotes 1. Iginla (2) and Boyd for Calgary. Jokinen for Phoenix.
Go Flames!
Good news - Jarome broke out last game and he almost always kicks the crap out of Phoenix. In fact, I believe his first career four goal game came against this team (well...not this team, but this Franchise).
In addition, Miikka Kiprusoff has put together two straight solid performances. Yay! It would make sense to put the kid in tonight, considering Kipper has played 7 straight and the quality of the competition, but we all know that isn't going to happen now that it seems like he's on a roll.
Bad news - Matthew Lombardi won't be in the line-up tonight, still suffering from an "upper body injury" due to a collision with Arnott the other night.
I dont know what that will do to the line combinations, although Im hoping to see Boyd move up into the top 6 in Lombo's absence. That will also mean that one of Nystrom or Roy will be drawing in this evening (probably Roy considering the Coyotes puglisit packed roster).
Also, the Flames are currently the most penalized team in the league, averaging 23.7 PIM/game (!). I looked at penalty differentials this summer and decided that the Flames could improve their ST output this season by becoming more disciplined (ie; taking less penalties than they draw). Clearly that hasn't happened yet. Luckily, there are some very easy ways for the club to cut down on their PIM going forward:
1.) Stop retaliating to big hits.
If a guy cheap-shots Iginla, or elbows Boyd or runs Kipper or hits Flame player X from behind, then sure...take offense, grab the offender and feed him some knuckle justice. But jumping guys after big, clean hits is just landing the team in penalty trouble. Cut it out. Im looking at you, Bourque and Prust.
2.) Cut down on the stupid minors already. Calgary has 47 minor penalties in 7 games played thus far.
In Edmonton, Bertuzzi was penalized for sticking out his foot and tripping some random Oiler in the neutral zone. The puck wasn't anywhere near the play. It was a needless act and stupid move, especially when you're, you know, Todd Bertuzzi and have a giant, glowing "watch me" sign buzzing above your head all game.
Craig Conroy has also been up to his old tricks so far, managing five minors. He became famous for taking needless stick penalties (hooking, high sticking) at the most inopportune times last season and has continued that bad habit this year. He couldn't seem to help it last year, so we might be stuck with that again this year.
Im hoping the boys smarten up, although it probably wont happen tonight. A team featuring Carcillo, Fedoruk, McGrattan, Jovonovski and Doan is built to evoke penalties.
Prediction - Jarome shows up again. Flames 3, Coyotes 1. Iginla (2) and Boyd for Calgary. Jokinen for Phoenix.
Go Flames!
Friday, October 24, 2008
Preds awake the sleeping giant
Whether it was finally scoring an ES goal or just playing Nashville (against whom he has a better than PPG average), something caused Jarome Iginla to burst out of his slump last night in spectacular fashion.
The Flames - and Iginla himself - looked awful for the first half of the game. In fact, they were probably lucky to be down by three at that point (Nashville hit iron twice in the first). Then came the rush, the head fake and the blocker-side snipe that initiated the come-back. After Iginla was done in the third, even Craig Conroy was +3 (although he took two terrible penalties earlier in the night, one leading to Arnott's goal).
There were some negatives to the night, no question. The poor discipline was the big one, resulting in two separate and lengthy 5on3 disadvantages, as well as, you know...falling behind by 3 in the first place.
Still, I've decided to wave the pom-poms for this one. Despite giving up 38 shots, the Flames actually out-played the Preds at ES in terms of shots at the net (+14) and goals (3 vs 2). Also, take a look at ESPN's groovy shot chart:
As you can see, Nashville only managed to get 3 of their 38 shots from inside 15 feet. The Flames, in contrast, had 6 at 15 feet or closer (with Cammalleri's goal coming at 16 feet). Taken with the corsi numbers, this means that a vast majority of the shots against came a.) during the PK and b.) outside the most dangerous "scoring area" on the ice. That's good. And even though Calgary only really played about 20 minutes of worthwhile hockey and spent too much time in the box, they doubled the Preds shot output from the close in. Imagine what a full game of Jarome playing like Jarome would yield...
There's still areas for improvement, naturally - the curious tendency to SUCK in the second period and the continual march to the penalty box are hobbling weaknesses, currently. However, now that Iginla's back (I assume) and Kipper looks like an NHL starter again (doesn't he?) the hike back up to respectability doesn't seem so steep.
The Flames - and Iginla himself - looked awful for the first half of the game. In fact, they were probably lucky to be down by three at that point (Nashville hit iron twice in the first). Then came the rush, the head fake and the blocker-side snipe that initiated the come-back. After Iginla was done in the third, even Craig Conroy was +3 (although he took two terrible penalties earlier in the night, one leading to Arnott's goal).
There were some negatives to the night, no question. The poor discipline was the big one, resulting in two separate and lengthy 5on3 disadvantages, as well as, you know...falling behind by 3 in the first place.
Still, I've decided to wave the pom-poms for this one. Despite giving up 38 shots, the Flames actually out-played the Preds at ES in terms of shots at the net (+14) and goals (3 vs 2). Also, take a look at ESPN's groovy shot chart:
As you can see, Nashville only managed to get 3 of their 38 shots from inside 15 feet. The Flames, in contrast, had 6 at 15 feet or closer (with Cammalleri's goal coming at 16 feet). Taken with the corsi numbers, this means that a vast majority of the shots against came a.) during the PK and b.) outside the most dangerous "scoring area" on the ice. That's good. And even though Calgary only really played about 20 minutes of worthwhile hockey and spent too much time in the box, they doubled the Preds shot output from the close in. Imagine what a full game of Jarome playing like Jarome would yield...
There's still areas for improvement, naturally - the curious tendency to SUCK in the second period and the continual march to the penalty box are hobbling weaknesses, currently. However, now that Iginla's back (I assume) and Kipper looks like an NHL starter again (doesn't he?) the hike back up to respectability doesn't seem so steep.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Flames at Preds
Historically, Nashville has been unkind to the Flames. they are something like 1-9 in their last 10 visits to the previously dubbed "Gaylord center" (twelve year olds snicker here).
Technically, however, this is a hockey team the Flames should beat, given their unfortunate lack of stars up front and a roster that is some $10M cheaper than Calgary's . *Should* being the operative qualifier here. Jarome Iginla *should* be the best player on the Flames, except he now has a 0.70 ESP/60 rate and the worst +/- on the team. So let's not confuse ought with is.
The Preds are similar to the Flames previous opponent in that they are superior at ES so far (14 GF, +1 GD), but awful at special teams (21st ranked PP, 28th ranked PK). So, like Tuesday against the Caps, the Flames best hope for a victory may be a ST dominated evening. Assuming, of course, that Iginla continues to play like Mark Smith. I think the Flames could have the upper-hand at 5on5 if Iggy were Iggy, but there's no way to know when he's going to turn the corner on his current struggles.
Anyhoo, here's the potential lines according to Inside the Flames:
Todd Bertuzzi-Matthew Lombardi-Jarome Iginla
Michael Cammalleri-Daymond Langkow-Rene Bourque
Curtis Glencross-Craig Conroy-David Moss
Dustin Boyd-Wayne Primeau-Brandon Prust
My impression? I like, I like. The first two lines both seem to be solid threats to me. Also: no Conroy with Jarome, which was something I feared would happen now that the Flames are on the road again. Course, things can (and probably will) change when the puck drops, but I'll laud/denounce the alterations as they occur.
Prediction - 3-2 win. Lombardi, Giordano and Bourque for Calgary. Arnott (2) for the Preds.
Go Flames!
Technically, however, this is a hockey team the Flames should beat, given their unfortunate lack of stars up front and a roster that is some $10M cheaper than Calgary's . *Should* being the operative qualifier here. Jarome Iginla *should* be the best player on the Flames, except he now has a 0.70 ESP/60 rate and the worst +/- on the team. So let's not confuse ought with is.
The Preds are similar to the Flames previous opponent in that they are superior at ES so far (14 GF, +1 GD), but awful at special teams (21st ranked PP, 28th ranked PK). So, like Tuesday against the Caps, the Flames best hope for a victory may be a ST dominated evening. Assuming, of course, that Iginla continues to play like Mark Smith. I think the Flames could have the upper-hand at 5on5 if Iggy were Iggy, but there's no way to know when he's going to turn the corner on his current struggles.
Anyhoo, here's the potential lines according to Inside the Flames:
Todd Bertuzzi-Matthew Lombardi-Jarome Iginla
Michael Cammalleri-Daymond Langkow-Rene Bourque
Curtis Glencross-Craig Conroy-David Moss
Dustin Boyd-Wayne Primeau-Brandon Prust
My impression? I like, I like. The first two lines both seem to be solid threats to me. Also: no Conroy with Jarome, which was something I feared would happen now that the Flames are on the road again. Course, things can (and probably will) change when the puck drops, but I'll laud/denounce the alterations as they occur.
Prediction - 3-2 win. Lombardi, Giordano and Bourque for Calgary. Arnott (2) for the Preds.
Go Flames!
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Right 'n Wrong
The Flames pulled out their second victory of the year, making a lie out of all my fears and 5-2 prediction from yesterday.
Unfortunately, there wasn't much I found encouraging in the win: Calgary was on the good end of the officiating (despite the baffling 9 minute PK in the first period) and, as noted, the Caps are lousy on special teams currently.
The boys were still outplayed at ES, albeit marginally. The worst part about those corsi rates is the figures put up by the Flames big guns - Iginla through Phaneuf were all in the red last night. Jarome and Dion in particular looked like blind infants swimming in Oatmeal for most of the game - just bad decisions and poor execution all over the ice.
The suck extended into the PP, which was just ghastly. Iginla scored thanks to a gift give-away on a 5on3, but otherwise the man advantage was limp and ineffectual. Hell, Iginla, Bertuzzi and Phaneuf all had some 11+ minutes on the PP, while Cammalleri had 10. They managed one point between them (and were a cumulative -2 for good measure). If the Caps dont take 8 consecutive penalties, the Flames probably lose this game.
There were, however, a couple of bright spots. Lombardi had his best game so far, scoring the game winner on nifty 3on2. Keenan seemed to notice and elevated Lombo to the first unit for the latter half of the game. Good stuff. And, yeah...Conroy stayed on the third line, where he looked comfortable and capable.
Perhaps the best news of all is that Kipper actually looked like an NHL caliber goaltender for the first time this year. His positioning and rebound control seemed much better and there were no soft, back-breaking goals against for a change. Im not going to get too excited after just a single game, but it's nice to see some indication that our starting goaltender hasn't totally lost it.
On the other hand, it looks like Iginla has yet to bottom out. He's now a team worst -6 and his ES production rate is falling to Nystromian levels. I dont know what his deal is, but there aren't going to be many games in the future where Jarome's lackluster ES play can be shielded by double digit PP time...
He's an elite player. He'll right the ship at some point. Sooner rather than later would be nice, though.
Unfortunately, there wasn't much I found encouraging in the win: Calgary was on the good end of the officiating (despite the baffling 9 minute PK in the first period) and, as noted, the Caps are lousy on special teams currently.
The boys were still outplayed at ES, albeit marginally. The worst part about those corsi rates is the figures put up by the Flames big guns - Iginla through Phaneuf were all in the red last night. Jarome and Dion in particular looked like blind infants swimming in Oatmeal for most of the game - just bad decisions and poor execution all over the ice.
The suck extended into the PP, which was just ghastly. Iginla scored thanks to a gift give-away on a 5on3, but otherwise the man advantage was limp and ineffectual. Hell, Iginla, Bertuzzi and Phaneuf all had some 11+ minutes on the PP, while Cammalleri had 10. They managed one point between them (and were a cumulative -2 for good measure). If the Caps dont take 8 consecutive penalties, the Flames probably lose this game.
There were, however, a couple of bright spots. Lombardi had his best game so far, scoring the game winner on nifty 3on2. Keenan seemed to notice and elevated Lombo to the first unit for the latter half of the game. Good stuff. And, yeah...Conroy stayed on the third line, where he looked comfortable and capable.
Perhaps the best news of all is that Kipper actually looked like an NHL caliber goaltender for the first time this year. His positioning and rebound control seemed much better and there were no soft, back-breaking goals against for a change. Im not going to get too excited after just a single game, but it's nice to see some indication that our starting goaltender hasn't totally lost it.
On the other hand, it looks like Iginla has yet to bottom out. He's now a team worst -6 and his ES production rate is falling to Nystromian levels. I dont know what his deal is, but there aren't going to be many games in the future where Jarome's lackluster ES play can be shielded by double digit PP time...
He's an elite player. He'll right the ship at some point. Sooner rather than later would be nice, though.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Game Day: Caps at Flames
NHL.com previewWashington has scored 14 ES goals in 5 games so far and are +6 5on5. The Flames have scored 8 and, due to their 29th ranked 14 ES GA, are -6. In addition, the home club has floundered with Jarome Iginla's struggles. The Capitals, in contrast, have excelled despite the ineffectiveness of their own superstar (Ovechkin), who also has just three points so far.
Consolation resides in the fact that the Caps are having goaltending problems too (Theodore - 3.62 GAA, 0.862 SV%) and that their special teams are somehow worse than Calgary's (PP - WSH 14th, CGY 11th, PK - WSH 29th, CGY 19th) at the moment.
Not that that provides much solace. The visitors have a forward group built to exploit shoddy defensive coverage and average goaltending: their one-two punch on the left side of Ovechkin and Semin is bloody frightening, partially because Semin looks like a superstar right now. I watched the recent Vancouver de-pantsing at the hands of the Capitals and it was an eye-opening experience. While WSH doesn't have the best blueline in the world, they have line after line of big, fast, aggressive forwards, half of which are capable of humiliating inattentive defenders (Semin, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Federov, Nylander). I know Federov looked like a toothless lion in Columbus the last few seasons, but he's resembling a Selke winner reborn for the Caps so far: JP from Jaspers Rink has been charting the corsi outcomes from each Washington contest and the old man is putting up massive numbers. This despite the fact (or because of perhaps?) he's actually played defense for a couple of games.
Once you get past Federov down the middle, you have Nylander and Backstrom to contend with. Ugh. I dont like the looks of this game at all. Twelve months removed from Calgary being a "contender" with Washington being assigned to the basement of the Eastern Conference by the assorted punditry. No longer. Welcome to underdog status, Flames fans.
On the Flames side, TSN recently reported that Cammalleri was practicing as Iginla's centerman. I like that move, although it shunts Lombardi to the wing with Langkow dropping to the second line. All of this is probably pissing in the wind, however, given Keenan's tendency to blend things up once the game starts. Whatever happens, though...PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DONT PUT CONROY ON THE FIRST LINE. PLEASE. PLEASE!! IT HASN'T WORKED. IT DOESN'T WORK. DO ANYTHING SOMETHING ELSE. ANYTHING. I BEG YOU.
(Maybe outright grovelling will succeed where reason and snark have failed. I guess we'll see.)
Prediction - Washington 5, Calgary 2. Ovechkin breaks out with a hat trick, Semin and Backstrom add insult to injury. Lombardi and Moss finally bust their personal goose eggs for the Flames.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Misery loves company
In other news...
it looks like Hordichuck, Demitra and Salo will be joining the already injured Kevin Bieksa in the infirmary for awhile.
Feel free to laugh, but don't you dare act surprised.
it looks like Hordichuck, Demitra and Salo will be joining the already injured Kevin Bieksa in the infirmary for awhile.
Feel free to laugh, but don't you dare act surprised.
Taking stock of the disaster
It's been an ugly start to the season. Going 1-4 hurts, particularly when it's against hated divisional rivals. The goaltending has been bad, the defensive play has been bad and the goalscoring always seems to come up one short. And let's not talk about the constantly-losing-two-goal-leads thing.
Problems -
Even-strength play
Who could have seen this coming? Well, anyone that was paying attention. Calgary only has 8 ES goals in five games played, which ranks them below teams like ATL, CBJ and, yes, even the incredibly snake-bitten Anaheim Ducks.
The problem is grossly exaggerated with Iginla putting on his best Jarmoe act, unfortunately. The Flames have precisely one proven ES performer up front and the guy is complete bunk right now. His 1.48 ESP/60 rate is deplorable and he's getting outscored to the tune of 4.41 G/60 at 5on5. Only Brandon Prust and Wayne Primeau are getting scored on at a greater rate so far. It's only five games in and things can't possibly go this bad forever for Jarome...but even in the short term that's a terrible run for the Captain. I doubt he had any similarly bad 5 game stretches last year (or in recent memory). He tends to be a streaky scorer for sure, but he's rarely a defensive liability.
Of course, part of the problem is the random casting about of Mike Keenan, who continues to struggle to figure out match-ups and line combinations now that Tanguay isn't around to anchor a "checking" unit. Which is why we see Conroy getting bumped to play with Iginla on the road: Keenan figures Jarome's going to see the tough match-ups away from the Dome so he puts Conroy out there to center him (because Conroy's the only center than take the rough going on the Flames...in Keenan's head, at least). The funny part about that is the Conroy/Iginla pairing has proven to be catastrophically bad, with Conroy doing his best headless chicken thing in the defensive zone. He lost his check twice more in Edmonton this weekend, with both mistakes ending up in goals against. Same thing happened on opening night in Vancouver.
The problem is, Keenan doesn't have faith in anyone else to do the dirty work against the big guns. It's hard to blame him though - every other forward on the roster (aside from Glencross and Bourque) got beat up at ES last year to one degree or another. Conroy held his head above water, but Im starting to think more and more that had a lot more to do with Tanguay than anything else. Plus, the guy is 37 years old. Diminishing returns and all that.
The goaltending
The defense has been sub-par so far, that's for sure. But Kipper looks like a golfer that's lost his swing to me. He is panicky and prone to scrambling in net. He gives up juicy rebounds. He loses his angle a lot. Pucks tends to dribble through him even when he stops them. He can't seem to recover with any sort of speed or grace (see the Oilers 2nd goal from Saturday night for an example).
Unlike Jarome, however, Im not sure how or if Kipper will recover. Iginla has been outstanding for two straight seasons now. Kipper has been getting progressively worse. Hiccup or death spiral? We'll find out soon enough.
Blocking shots revisited
I talked about the Flames lack of shot blocking earlier this month. The gist was:
1.) The Flames block less shots relative to league average.
2.) Blocking shots is (probably) beneficial, due to the whole "less shots on net" thing.
Calgary was blocking about 26% of the shots being directed at their net per game last year. An increase to the league average of 29% probably would have saved them between 1 and 10 goals against by the end of the season.
So far, the Flames have blocked 53 shots in 5 games and allowed 148 shots on net. So Blks/shots+blks = 201/53 = 26%, meaning the Flames are right in line with last year's output. I would really like to see that number go up, particularly with the ghost of Roman Turek tending the crease.
Silver lining (?) -
It really isn't all bad. Bertuzzi has been so surprisingly good that even I'm praising him (although the stupid penalties need to go away). Im also fairly impressed with Cammalleri and Bourque so far, while Langkow actually leads the team in scoring despite the crappy play of Jarome (and the Conroy yo-yo).
Also, the Calgary seems to be spending a large amount of time in the right end of the rink, which can't be said for, say, Tampa Bay. If they can keep that up, the bounces are likely to start favoring them, especially if one or both of Kipper and Iginla can get their mojo back.
Problems -
Even-strength play
Who could have seen this coming? Well, anyone that was paying attention. Calgary only has 8 ES goals in five games played, which ranks them below teams like ATL, CBJ and, yes, even the incredibly snake-bitten Anaheim Ducks.
The problem is grossly exaggerated with Iginla putting on his best Jarmoe act, unfortunately. The Flames have precisely one proven ES performer up front and the guy is complete bunk right now. His 1.48 ESP/60 rate is deplorable and he's getting outscored to the tune of 4.41 G/60 at 5on5. Only Brandon Prust and Wayne Primeau are getting scored on at a greater rate so far. It's only five games in and things can't possibly go this bad forever for Jarome...but even in the short term that's a terrible run for the Captain. I doubt he had any similarly bad 5 game stretches last year (or in recent memory). He tends to be a streaky scorer for sure, but he's rarely a defensive liability.
Of course, part of the problem is the random casting about of Mike Keenan, who continues to struggle to figure out match-ups and line combinations now that Tanguay isn't around to anchor a "checking" unit. Which is why we see Conroy getting bumped to play with Iginla on the road: Keenan figures Jarome's going to see the tough match-ups away from the Dome so he puts Conroy out there to center him (because Conroy's the only center than take the rough going on the Flames...in Keenan's head, at least). The funny part about that is the Conroy/Iginla pairing has proven to be catastrophically bad, with Conroy doing his best headless chicken thing in the defensive zone. He lost his check twice more in Edmonton this weekend, with both mistakes ending up in goals against. Same thing happened on opening night in Vancouver.
The problem is, Keenan doesn't have faith in anyone else to do the dirty work against the big guns. It's hard to blame him though - every other forward on the roster (aside from Glencross and Bourque) got beat up at ES last year to one degree or another. Conroy held his head above water, but Im starting to think more and more that had a lot more to do with Tanguay than anything else. Plus, the guy is 37 years old. Diminishing returns and all that.
The goaltending
The defense has been sub-par so far, that's for sure. But Kipper looks like a golfer that's lost his swing to me. He is panicky and prone to scrambling in net. He gives up juicy rebounds. He loses his angle a lot. Pucks tends to dribble through him even when he stops them. He can't seem to recover with any sort of speed or grace (see the Oilers 2nd goal from Saturday night for an example).
Unlike Jarome, however, Im not sure how or if Kipper will recover. Iginla has been outstanding for two straight seasons now. Kipper has been getting progressively worse. Hiccup or death spiral? We'll find out soon enough.
Blocking shots revisited
I talked about the Flames lack of shot blocking earlier this month. The gist was:
1.) The Flames block less shots relative to league average.
2.) Blocking shots is (probably) beneficial, due to the whole "less shots on net" thing.
Calgary was blocking about 26% of the shots being directed at their net per game last year. An increase to the league average of 29% probably would have saved them between 1 and 10 goals against by the end of the season.
So far, the Flames have blocked 53 shots in 5 games and allowed 148 shots on net. So Blks/shots+blks = 201/53 = 26%, meaning the Flames are right in line with last year's output. I would really like to see that number go up, particularly with the ghost of Roman Turek tending the crease.
Silver lining (?) -
It really isn't all bad. Bertuzzi has been so surprisingly good that even I'm praising him (although the stupid penalties need to go away). Im also fairly impressed with Cammalleri and Bourque so far, while Langkow actually leads the team in scoring despite the crappy play of Jarome (and the Conroy yo-yo).
Also, the Calgary seems to be spending a large amount of time in the right end of the rink, which can't be said for, say, Tampa Bay. If they can keep that up, the bounces are likely to start favoring them, especially if one or both of Kipper and Iginla can get their mojo back.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Battle of Alberta - the second
Flames get a chance to get back on the horse tonight. Three changes that might make the difference:1.) More discipline/less "colorful officiating" -
Im not going to point the finger at the referees from last night, but 6 straight PPs for one team is a rare occurrence whether all of the infractions were deserved or not. If the pendulum swings back the other way this evening, the Flames currently terrible PK won't be so exposed.
2.) A more effective Jarome Iginla.
When both of the Flames marquee difference makers are mediocre (or worse), there's little to seperate the two Albertan clubs. Obviously Kipper has been double plus bad so far, but not much has been said about Jarome who has also been thoroughly ordinary through the first four games. The Western Conferences reigning points champion has just 2 through four games (both coming in the Colorado victory) and only one point (and assist) in 63 minutes of ES ice. That's abysmal by most standards, but particularly bad for a proven ES contributor like Iginla. There's no reason to assume he'll break out of his funk tonight, but it's bound to happen sooner or later.
3.) Curtis MceLhinney in net.
I dont know if this is going to happen for sure - but putting the kid in would only make sense. Kiprusoff has allowed four or more goals in each of the first four games and has a sub-.850 SV%. Beyond the fact that MceLhinney can't possibly be any worse than Kipper has been, this match is the second of a back-to-back, so you might as well rest the embattled starter anyways.
In addition, a night of Curtis in net might give us some indication how much the goalie is determing the terrible defensive results thus far. If McelHinney can win and/or keep the Oilers to four or under, it may indicate that Kipper is the fly in the ointment. If the team gets lit-up again, then other personnel questions will have to be asked (from Keenan to Playfair to the blueline, etc).
Prediction - Uhhh...lots of fights?
Go Flames!
All class, all the time
Pre-game, post-game coming shortly.
First, I wanted to direct everyone to this post over at covered-in-oil. Here's a teaser:
As of this writing, I could still theoretically return to the job (I have a feeling that situation might change after I publish this) but that brings me to the second reason for this: I'm pretty much done with the Oilers organization in any capacity for the foreseeable future. Up until this point, I was nothing but cooperative and apologetic for what happened, and was met with nothing but irrational hostility at worst and condescending patronization at best.
Some background - the author (DMFB) was granted a press-pass to cover an Oilers game and decided to do a liveblog while he was in the press-box. The Oilers found out he was a "blogger" (nooooo!) and all hell broke loose. read the whole thing for a more thorough explanation.
There's going to be the word "luddite" thrown around a lot after this incident, which is generaally appropriate although not overly accurate: I dont think it's necessarily fear/misunderstanding of the "new" that drove the Oilers to react with hostility to a blogger in their midst. Rather, I think they understand perfectly what blogging is - a media beyond their grasp to manage and control, ie; not another arm of the marketing department. This also gives you a peak into the difficult world of the mainstream sports reporter: how guaraded teams can be about "access" and how they jealousy manage that access, no doubt to the benefit of the team & company. Of course, bloggers aren't (usually) subject to the pressures of press pass, so they're treated like an unwelcome pathogen. This is why I forgo the sports page of the daily fishwraps these days...the coverage is sanitized and bland.
It's also the main reason I've never personally lusted after "access". My interest in blogging is providing honest, pointed criticism and has little to do with getting game-day quotes from players or Keenan or Sutter. If I was unable to call a spade a spade (by my own standards and estimation) then I doubt I would bother writing about sports anyways (although Im sure the press-box is a great place to watch a game).
First, I wanted to direct everyone to this post over at covered-in-oil. Here's a teaser:
As of this writing, I could still theoretically return to the job (I have a feeling that situation might change after I publish this) but that brings me to the second reason for this: I'm pretty much done with the Oilers organization in any capacity for the foreseeable future. Up until this point, I was nothing but cooperative and apologetic for what happened, and was met with nothing but irrational hostility at worst and condescending patronization at best.
Some background - the author (DMFB) was granted a press-pass to cover an Oilers game and decided to do a liveblog while he was in the press-box. The Oilers found out he was a "blogger" (nooooo!) and all hell broke loose. read the whole thing for a more thorough explanation.
There's going to be the word "luddite" thrown around a lot after this incident, which is generaally appropriate although not overly accurate: I dont think it's necessarily fear/misunderstanding of the "new" that drove the Oilers to react with hostility to a blogger in their midst. Rather, I think they understand perfectly what blogging is - a media beyond their grasp to manage and control, ie; not another arm of the marketing department. This also gives you a peak into the difficult world of the mainstream sports reporter: how guaraded teams can be about "access" and how they jealousy manage that access, no doubt to the benefit of the team & company. Of course, bloggers aren't (usually) subject to the pressures of press pass, so they're treated like an unwelcome pathogen. This is why I forgo the sports page of the daily fishwraps these days...the coverage is sanitized and bland.
It's also the main reason I've never personally lusted after "access". My interest in blogging is providing honest, pointed criticism and has little to do with getting game-day quotes from players or Keenan or Sutter. If I was unable to call a spade a spade (by my own standards and estimation) then I doubt I would bother writing about sports anyways (although Im sure the press-box is a great place to watch a game).
Friday, October 17, 2008
Battle of Alberta - the first
As Barney Gumble once slurred; "it begins!"
Grabia has already built a drinking game for tonight's clash (non-alcoholic champagne is discouraged). Participate at your own risk.
The Oilers have had a good start to the season, beating both the Avs and Ducks in their first couple of games. The Flames, on the other hand, have looked decidedly bottom of the barrel in many aspects, going 1-1-1 while surrendering the most goals against (per game) in the league.
But, you know what? Im not too worried.
I think the Oilers success thus far is illusory. They were out-played and out-shot in both games, with a combination of shoddy opposition goaltending and a lot of beneficial goal posts delivering them the "W". Their best player has probably been Dustin Penner from the third line and that back-end strikes fear into no one.
The Flames obviously have some issues to work through, but there were definitely some positive to be taken from last game. The concerns remain Kiprusoff and defensive positioning but one has to think improvement is inevitable (they simply can't be this bad).
Line-ups, match-ups:
Edmonton
Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
kid line
Penner-Pisani-Moreau
Brodziak/chicken boy-hired goons
Visnovsky-Souray
Grebeshlov-Gilbert
Strudwick-Staios
Calgary
Bert-Langkow-Iginla
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Bourque
Glencross-Conroy-Moss
Boyd-Primeau-Prust/Roy
Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-Vandermeer
Giordano-Aucoin
The coaches may go power on power tonight, meaning Iginla playing Hemsky (with Regehr/Sarich behind him). That leaves Conroy against the kids and Pisani to check Lombardi. If not, Conroy+Regehr will face Hemsky while Jarome+Phaneuf will beat up on the Pisani "checking line". That would leave the two second lines to try to outscore each other.
The game is at the 'Dome, so match-ups will turn in Keenan's favor. As such, I expect Jarome will face lesser competition for most of the evening. In fact, I can almost guarantee that Keenan will try to get him out against Gagner and Nilsson as much as possible. The kids are alright, but they can't hang with the likes of Jarome just yet.
Im worried about - the goaltending and the PKing. Both looked like achilles heels last game.
Im not worried about - MacIntyre. The lughead will play all of 3 minutes. If Roy is in the line-up, there might be a meaningless tussle. Otherwise, Im guessing everyone just ignores the goon.
Prediction - Flames 4, Oilers 3. Calgary grossly out-shoots the Oilers, but play in the bad end continues to be lackluster. Iginla (2), Cammalleri and Phaneuf for Calgary. Gagner, Souray and Brodziak for Stinktown.
Go Flames!
UPDATE - Apparently JDD will be in net for the Oilers this evening. I'd say the Flames have the goaltending advantage as a result, but Kipper is an upgrade over nobody right now. Also, dig the Regehr quote near the top of the page:
Generally, Calgary defender Robyn Regehr is singled out by the Edmonton coach for his habit of mashing Ales Hemsky into the fence.
"Personally, I think he's maybe trying to win some favour with officiating or with fans or . . . I don't know who those comments are directed at," said Regehr. "Guys are intense out there. Battles happen. Guys that don't want to play that way, they should be playing another sport."
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Poindextering the victory
I was taking a stroll through the figurative flowers afer the Flames victory over the Avs recently. Some of the stuff was surprising and/or notable, so I figured I'd share it.
Head2head ice-time (even-strength). Click the players name to sort.
Fenwick/Corsi numbers (shots directed at the net +/-).
This game is a good one to dissect because, a.) it was a home game, meaning Keenan had more control over the match-ups and b.) the Flames won, meaning there's a good chance some of these patterns will be replicated next game.
First surprise for me was the fact that Glencross and Conroy spent the most time out of the Flames forwards against Joe Sakic. It shouldn't surprise me, because I know very well that Keenan sees Conroy as the go-to guy in tough match-ups. Still, a line consisting of Conroy, Moss and Glencross taking on Sakic is a bit of an eyebrow raiser (Conroy typically had notable linemates during the tough sledding last year). What's more is I didn't even notice it, but it makes sense since Iginla was deployed against Statstny rather than Burnaby Joe (or so I assumed). It probably helped that Sakic mostly played with Tucker and Wolski.
The second surprise is the Lombardi et al. spent about as much time against Stastny as Iginla's trio. My prevailing assumption was Iginla would be the go-to guy for that match-up, but he basically split time with Lombo Tuesday night. I dont know if this was purposeful on Keenan's part or due to aggressive management by Granato, who would probably prefer to see Statstny versus Lombardi.
Now on to the shot chart, which suggests that Calgary deserved to win this one - they "out-shot" the Avs by 14 at ES, with only two Flames players in the red (Vandermeer and...surprise, surprise!...Primeau).
Most encouraging? The numbers for Lombardi (+5), Cammalleri (+4) and Bourque (+6), especially since they played against decent competition. I also like that Conroy could spend almost his entire 10 minutes against the big boys and come out on the positive side of the ledger as well. I was rough on Craig to start the year, but he can apparently still bring it. Moss and Glencross deserve credit too, no doubt. I know...it's one game, things can change, luck, aberrations, sample-size, lying with numbers, facts can be used to prove anything, advanced stats are for basements geeks...etc. Still I like what I see here and hope it can continue. Keenan's faith in the old man may not be misplaced (plus, this is the role I envisioned for Conroy in the off-season anyhow).
What does this mean?
Probably not too much yet. If I were to guess though, Id say we wont see Boyd move up from the 4th line any time soon and the the Flames might just have 3 relatively effective lines on their hands here. If the goaltending and defensive miscues can work themselves out eventually, that's good news (probably irrevelant otherwise, however).
Head2head ice-time (even-strength). Click the players name to sort.
Fenwick/Corsi numbers (shots directed at the net +/-).
This game is a good one to dissect because, a.) it was a home game, meaning Keenan had more control over the match-ups and b.) the Flames won, meaning there's a good chance some of these patterns will be replicated next game.
First surprise for me was the fact that Glencross and Conroy spent the most time out of the Flames forwards against Joe Sakic. It shouldn't surprise me, because I know very well that Keenan sees Conroy as the go-to guy in tough match-ups. Still, a line consisting of Conroy, Moss and Glencross taking on Sakic is a bit of an eyebrow raiser (Conroy typically had notable linemates during the tough sledding last year). What's more is I didn't even notice it, but it makes sense since Iginla was deployed against Statstny rather than Burnaby Joe (or so I assumed). It probably helped that Sakic mostly played with Tucker and Wolski.
The second surprise is the Lombardi et al. spent about as much time against Stastny as Iginla's trio. My prevailing assumption was Iginla would be the go-to guy for that match-up, but he basically split time with Lombo Tuesday night. I dont know if this was purposeful on Keenan's part or due to aggressive management by Granato, who would probably prefer to see Statstny versus Lombardi.
Now on to the shot chart, which suggests that Calgary deserved to win this one - they "out-shot" the Avs by 14 at ES, with only two Flames players in the red (Vandermeer and...surprise, surprise!...Primeau).
Most encouraging? The numbers for Lombardi (+5), Cammalleri (+4) and Bourque (+6), especially since they played against decent competition. I also like that Conroy could spend almost his entire 10 minutes against the big boys and come out on the positive side of the ledger as well. I was rough on Craig to start the year, but he can apparently still bring it. Moss and Glencross deserve credit too, no doubt. I know...it's one game, things can change, luck, aberrations, sample-size, lying with numbers, facts can be used to prove anything, advanced stats are for basements geeks...etc. Still I like what I see here and hope it can continue. Keenan's faith in the old man may not be misplaced (plus, this is the role I envisioned for Conroy in the off-season anyhow).
What does this mean?
Probably not too much yet. If I were to guess though, Id say we wont see Boyd move up from the 4th line any time soon and the the Flames might just have 3 relatively effective lines on their hands here. If the goaltending and defensive miscues can work themselves out eventually, that's good news (probably irrevelant otherwise, however).
Hawks Axe Savard
Four games into the season? Really?
Best comment I've heard on this news so far:
"Maybe he was molesting Kane".
Best comment I've heard on this news so far:
"Maybe he was molesting Kane".
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Pretty as a picture
Hideous.
But still...a wins a win, right?
So let's ignore the still shoddy goaltending, the over-commitment by players in the defensive zone, the curiously bad bounces, and the fact that Boyd is stuck on the 4th line and focus on the positives.
- The PP finally broke the goose-egg. Although, Peter Budaj certainly helped it along. It's nice to have two functional units, that's for sure. Cammalleri+Phaneuf on the first unit and Gio+Aucoin on the 2nd unit makes a lot of sense to me.
- Three of the four forward units looked pretty effective for the first time in...yeah, can't remember. I was suspicious of the Bertuzzi-Iginla coupling, but they have actually been fairly dominant through two games now. I dont like it when they're in the defensive zone, but that's so rare that Im not too worried about it. Ultimately, I'd like to see Conroy bumped to the 4th line with Boyd centering Moss and Glencross, since it looks like Jarome's going to be given the tough match-ups this year anyways. Boyd is wasted playing with Primeau and Prust.
- Cammalleri and Lombardi seem to be developing some chemistry. The two executed a couple of nifty give-and-go cycles in the offensive zone last night.
- Aucoin actually looked like an NHL defenseman last night. Here's hoping he keeps it up.
Other notes:
- Giordano was bumped from the second pairing after that egregious pinch on the PK. I think that was the first play has made Gio that made me think "yeah...you haven't played 100 NHL games yet" so far. I dont know if the move will be permanent (Vandermeer moved up), but, Im guessing it'll last right up to the point it's clear that Vandy can't handle 2nd pairing minutes either. Let's face it, though...we all saw this problem coming. The hope is that the Gio/Vandermeer stop-gap will be superior to the Eriksson/Vandermeer/Aucoin options from last year. Based on what I've seen so far, I think it will be.
- Brandon Prust probably shouldn't be in the line-up. Even Nystrom is a superior option.
- Boyd played played more on special teams last night than at ES (6:11 versus 4:46). That, I can agree with I think, although the decision to play him so much on the PK is a curious one (4:00), given his lack of aptitude in the defensive zone. Maybe Boyd is getting the same treatment Lombo got last year? Either way, I'll be happy to see him get 2+ minutes per night on the man advantage. That's where he's going to excel and gain confidence.
- Peter Budaj isn't very good.
- No evidence of "the leap" from Phaneuf yet this season. Still not fundamentally sound in his own zone.
- Everyone talks about slow starts by Kipper and Iggy. I think we should add Robyn Regehr to the list. He always seem to struggle (relative to his usual excellence) every October. He made two obvious errors in the second game against Vancouver and was caught a couple of times again last night. One play in particular stood out to me:
Regehr has the puck, unchallenged, at his own blueline and decides to lamely bank it into the neutral zone (to no one in particular). The Avs pick it up, charge into the Flames end, where Regehr ends up tripping someone behind the net and taking a penalty. So - an easy clearing play turns into a chance against and a PK because Regehr can't make the right decision with the puck on his stick.
And it seems like every October I have similar complaints about the big guy. With the entire club struggling in the defensive zone, Regehr needs to get it together.
Anyways, (-6, -1, +1)...I like where this is headed. Oilers up next!
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Game Day - Flames vs. Avs
If you're unaware, the Vancouver Canucks were destroyed by the Washington Capitals last night. Now, this can go both ways for the average Flames fan:
Optimism: glee, shadenfreude, etc. The Canucks aren't really that good and won't be steamrolling over the rest of the NW (and thus the Flames) all year.
Pessimism: shock, horror, etc. that a team that has outscored Calgary 17-4 in the last three games could be fundamentally dismantled by an Eastern Conference foe.
*Segue* Perspectives on the up-coming contest against the Avs can be similarly split.
Optimism:
Colorado has also lost it's first two games of the year, partially due to lackluster goaltending (surprise!). In fact, Peter Budaj is one of the only starting goaltenders with a worse SV% thus far than Kiprusoff (.795 vs. .807).
Not to mention the fact that Calgary has owned Budaj in the past, often chasing him from the net by the 2nd frame. And, hell, if that happens...their back-up is Andrew FAILcroft. Nothing to worry about there.
Also, the Flames were better Saturday night versus the Canucks relative to the season opener. Some of the new faces were particularly noteworthy, including Bourque and Cammalleri. Also, if you look at the Flames corsi numbers through two, you'll see that the puck is going the right direction when the big boys are on the ice. Eventually, that should start making a difference.
Pessimism:
Let's face it, the first two games were not good, to say the least. The defensive coverage is lacking, the PP is oh-fer and the goaltending is as weak as it ever was. Anything even resembling a scoring chance has ended up in the Flames net so far, due to the combination of those two factors. And there hasn't been much indication of that easing up.
In addition, the Avs lack of success so far is probably misleading: they've outshot their opponents 72-39 so far, a per game difference of 36 for, 19.5 against. That's a pretty massive differential and indicates that bad luck/bad goaltending had more to do with their losing than anything else.
Also, there's that Joe Sakic guy - he tends to beat the tar out of the Flames at every opportunity.
Prediction - Im going with "pessimism". Until the defensive faction of the this club shows some marked improvement, my confidence and hopes for success will remain low. 5-3 Avs. Sakic, Stastny, Smyth (2) and Tucker for Colorado. Lombardi and Iginla (2) for Calgary.
Optimism: glee, shadenfreude, etc. The Canucks aren't really that good and won't be steamrolling over the rest of the NW (and thus the Flames) all year.
Pessimism: shock, horror, etc. that a team that has outscored Calgary 17-4 in the last three games could be fundamentally dismantled by an Eastern Conference foe.
*Segue* Perspectives on the up-coming contest against the Avs can be similarly split.
Optimism:
Colorado has also lost it's first two games of the year, partially due to lackluster goaltending (surprise!). In fact, Peter Budaj is one of the only starting goaltenders with a worse SV% thus far than Kiprusoff (.795 vs. .807).
Not to mention the fact that Calgary has owned Budaj in the past, often chasing him from the net by the 2nd frame. And, hell, if that happens...their back-up is Andrew FAILcroft. Nothing to worry about there.
Also, the Flames were better Saturday night versus the Canucks relative to the season opener. Some of the new faces were particularly noteworthy, including Bourque and Cammalleri. Also, if you look at the Flames corsi numbers through two, you'll see that the puck is going the right direction when the big boys are on the ice. Eventually, that should start making a difference.
Pessimism:
Let's face it, the first two games were not good, to say the least. The defensive coverage is lacking, the PP is oh-fer and the goaltending is as weak as it ever was. Anything even resembling a scoring chance has ended up in the Flames net so far, due to the combination of those two factors. And there hasn't been much indication of that easing up.
In addition, the Avs lack of success so far is probably misleading: they've outshot their opponents 72-39 so far, a per game difference of 36 for, 19.5 against. That's a pretty massive differential and indicates that bad luck/bad goaltending had more to do with their losing than anything else.
Also, there's that Joe Sakic guy - he tends to beat the tar out of the Flames at every opportunity.
Prediction - Im going with "pessimism". Until the defensive faction of the this club shows some marked improvement, my confidence and hopes for success will remain low. 5-3 Avs. Sakic, Stastny, Smyth (2) and Tucker for Colorado. Lombardi and Iginla (2) for Calgary.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Things that make you go hmmm...
...or "ugh". Or "for f--- sakes!". Or choke on your brandy. Or punch a wall. Etc.
Two games in, I know. But still...try reconciling that (above) with this (below).
Ditto
Warrener's salary 'doesn't count' (but actually, yes it does). Keep in mind, there's another 1.5M worth of Bubba stashed in the minors.
Does that blueline resemble a Freddie Mac portfolio to anyone else? Big money and bets everywhere.
Enlarge by clicking.
Two games in, I know. But still...try reconciling that (above) with this (below).
DittoWarrener's salary 'doesn't count' (but actually, yes it does). Keep in mind, there's another 1.5M worth of Bubba stashed in the minors.
Does that blueline resemble a Freddie Mac portfolio to anyone else? Big money and bets everywhere.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Take a knee
Analysis and Condemnation later.
For now, let's revel in "the punch" and wish the actual game had gone like this fight. Also, does anyone get the feeling that Iginla is a better scrapper than our current "enforcer" (although Roy now has more goals than Iginla, so...)?
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Rematch and reprobates
There are a lot of questions facing the Flames this year and lots on the line for some of the major players in the organization - and by that I certainly don't mean the likes of Jarome Iginla or Dion Phaneuf.
One of those guys is Mike Keenan. Although he's amongst the most successful coaches in league history, a large measure of that success was had earlier in his career. In the last half decade or so, failure has been stamped all over everything Keenan has touched, including his ill-conceived foray into general management down in Florida. The surprise surrounding his hiring last summer was in part due to his earned reputation as a team destroyer and in part due to a prevailing consensus that Keenan was probably out of the league for good in light of his declining record in the business.
Last season, the Flames played well under Keenan for spurts. They also played very poorly. The results weren't much different from the lost season under Playfair with the promised step forward with an established, hard-assed Iron Mike behind the bench failing to occur.
Before heading into the season opener, I considered the possiblity of a bad start to be the worst possible outcome for this team in it's current iteration, considering the circumstances. Kipper is fragile, the roster is expensive, there's no cap room to make adjustments and fan patience for middling results is at it's expiration date. Also, Keenan isn't known for being tolerant or patient towards failure, nor is he a gentle touch under pressure. From my angle, the risk of things going sour, resulting in a poisonous environment is perilously high if the Calgary suffers from their annual October nosedive.
Last game, I was completely baffled by many of the Keenan's decisions. Ranging from putting Conroy on the first line to sitting David Moss for a majority of the game to giving the emerging Dustin Boyd precisely zero time on the PP. The line combinations that appeared once it was panic time were, to my eye, totally arbitrary and weren't in any way beneficial.
As such, I'm curious to see what happens this evening, in the wake of such a one-sided dismantling at the hands of a sworn rival. Part of me hopes that Iron Mike will correct some of the obvious shortcomings we saw on Thursday, part of me fears that he'll begin to go off the deep end.
On that note, here's the practice lines from this morning, according to Inside the Flames:
Bertuzzi-Langkow-Iginla
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Bourque
Glencross-Conroy-Moss
Prust-Primeau-Roy
Pardy-Phaneuf
Regehr-Sarich
Vandermeer-Aucoin
Assuming this is the true line-up (it may not be) I have to say Im dismayed. Conroy on the third unit works for me and that Lombo line has promise. However, if you look closely you'll notice Dustin Boyd and Mark Giordano aren't included here. Meaning they could be healthy scratches this evening. Primeau, Prust, Roy, Pardy and Vandermeer (and Aucoin, considering how he played in Vancouver) should be ahead of Boyd and Gio in the press-box line. I don't know if this is message sending or motivational tactics or what, but the above is not the best possible line-up for this team. And if Keenan actually thinks that scratching the two guys mentioned is a sensible strategy then, folks...we have a major problem on our hands.
One of those guys is Mike Keenan. Although he's amongst the most successful coaches in league history, a large measure of that success was had earlier in his career. In the last half decade or so, failure has been stamped all over everything Keenan has touched, including his ill-conceived foray into general management down in Florida. The surprise surrounding his hiring last summer was in part due to his earned reputation as a team destroyer and in part due to a prevailing consensus that Keenan was probably out of the league for good in light of his declining record in the business.
Last season, the Flames played well under Keenan for spurts. They also played very poorly. The results weren't much different from the lost season under Playfair with the promised step forward with an established, hard-assed Iron Mike behind the bench failing to occur.
Before heading into the season opener, I considered the possiblity of a bad start to be the worst possible outcome for this team in it's current iteration, considering the circumstances. Kipper is fragile, the roster is expensive, there's no cap room to make adjustments and fan patience for middling results is at it's expiration date. Also, Keenan isn't known for being tolerant or patient towards failure, nor is he a gentle touch under pressure. From my angle, the risk of things going sour, resulting in a poisonous environment is perilously high if the Calgary suffers from their annual October nosedive.
Last game, I was completely baffled by many of the Keenan's decisions. Ranging from putting Conroy on the first line to sitting David Moss for a majority of the game to giving the emerging Dustin Boyd precisely zero time on the PP. The line combinations that appeared once it was panic time were, to my eye, totally arbitrary and weren't in any way beneficial.
As such, I'm curious to see what happens this evening, in the wake of such a one-sided dismantling at the hands of a sworn rival. Part of me hopes that Iron Mike will correct some of the obvious shortcomings we saw on Thursday, part of me fears that he'll begin to go off the deep end.
On that note, here's the practice lines from this morning, according to Inside the Flames:
Bertuzzi-Langkow-Iginla
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Bourque
Glencross-Conroy-Moss
Prust-Primeau-Roy
Pardy-Phaneuf
Regehr-Sarich
Vandermeer-Aucoin
Assuming this is the true line-up (it may not be) I have to say Im dismayed. Conroy on the third unit works for me and that Lombo line has promise. However, if you look closely you'll notice Dustin Boyd and Mark Giordano aren't included here. Meaning they could be healthy scratches this evening. Primeau, Prust, Roy, Pardy and Vandermeer (and Aucoin, considering how he played in Vancouver) should be ahead of Boyd and Gio in the press-box line. I don't know if this is message sending or motivational tactics or what, but the above is not the best possible line-up for this team. And if Keenan actually thinks that scratching the two guys mentioned is a sensible strategy then, folks...we have a major problem on our hands.
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Winter of My Discontent
*(A friend of mine, once an avid hockey fan, has found himself questioning his interest in the sport the last few years. Knowing I had this humble platform, he asked me to share some of his thoughts on the subject. So, here they are: maybe they'll strike a chord with some of the disillusioned out there.)
Hockey and I are at a crossroads. We’ve been drifting apart lately, and I must admit, I’ve kind of let it happen.
To blame, the entire constellation of The Game’s problems. Work stoppages, poor TV presence, retirement of the biggest stars, and poor performance by the local team since its long-ago zenith. I am a hockey fan to be sure, but I am also a sports fan in general. The NFL in particular has taken my sports viewing eye in the last couple of years, both by its ubiquity and the superior quality of its televised product. Not that the NFL competes head-to-head with NHL telecasts. Rather, as a married man who mostly watches sports with his wife; she’s only going to invest herself in a certain amount of viewing hours. And I’m not going to blow 3 of them on a 10-cent Sportsnet telecast of Edmonton v. Minnesota.
Inevitably, The Game and I drifted a little last year. While the NFL offered record-breaking excellence and a surprise ending, available three days a week on low-tier cable; The Game had me share a local cable media deal with a rival city in the same division. The Game, in effect, sentenced me to 2 and 3 game terms of intra-conference mediocrity. Phoenix, Columbus, Minnesota, multiple nights in a row. On the weekend, a national telecast anchored by one of the most mediocre teams in the league.
The Game has already addressed some of my beefs, but the insult of assuming I had nothing better to do has been noted.
So I’m approaching this season with wariness. Why should I still invest so much in The Game if it offers me so little in the games? Most of the burden for reconciliation lies with my local team. If I’m to rekindle my interest and actually watch, something has to be at stake. With a 16 game schedule the NFL offers a standings shuffle every weekend and playoff implications for the last ½ of the season. Last year, The Game offered me a race for 8th and a coronation for a championship.
My love for The Game is rooted in the same things as most: it has provided my cultural touchstones and my earliest heroes and the unifying thrill of being collectively invested in something. I even worked as an Saddledome usher for a couple years in university. But nostalgia is no basis for a lasting union.
Thus, as another winter descends I turn to The Game for perhaps the final time as a serious fan. I’ll give it the attention that a meaningful understanding entails. But, I’ll only stay if it pays me back.
You may want the Flames to do well for your own reasons, I need them to do well for their own sake.
The Dane
Hockey and I are at a crossroads. We’ve been drifting apart lately, and I must admit, I’ve kind of let it happen.
To blame, the entire constellation of The Game’s problems. Work stoppages, poor TV presence, retirement of the biggest stars, and poor performance by the local team since its long-ago zenith. I am a hockey fan to be sure, but I am also a sports fan in general. The NFL in particular has taken my sports viewing eye in the last couple of years, both by its ubiquity and the superior quality of its televised product. Not that the NFL competes head-to-head with NHL telecasts. Rather, as a married man who mostly watches sports with his wife; she’s only going to invest herself in a certain amount of viewing hours. And I’m not going to blow 3 of them on a 10-cent Sportsnet telecast of Edmonton v. Minnesota.
Inevitably, The Game and I drifted a little last year. While the NFL offered record-breaking excellence and a surprise ending, available three days a week on low-tier cable; The Game had me share a local cable media deal with a rival city in the same division. The Game, in effect, sentenced me to 2 and 3 game terms of intra-conference mediocrity. Phoenix, Columbus, Minnesota, multiple nights in a row. On the weekend, a national telecast anchored by one of the most mediocre teams in the league.
The Game has already addressed some of my beefs, but the insult of assuming I had nothing better to do has been noted.
So I’m approaching this season with wariness. Why should I still invest so much in The Game if it offers me so little in the games? Most of the burden for reconciliation lies with my local team. If I’m to rekindle my interest and actually watch, something has to be at stake. With a 16 game schedule the NFL offers a standings shuffle every weekend and playoff implications for the last ½ of the season. Last year, The Game offered me a race for 8th and a coronation for a championship.
My love for The Game is rooted in the same things as most: it has provided my cultural touchstones and my earliest heroes and the unifying thrill of being collectively invested in something. I even worked as an Saddledome usher for a couple years in university. But nostalgia is no basis for a lasting union.
Thus, as another winter descends I turn to The Game for perhaps the final time as a serious fan. I’ll give it the attention that a meaningful understanding entails. But, I’ll only stay if it pays me back.
You may want the Flames to do well for your own reasons, I need them to do well for their own sake.
The Dane
Pawing through the rubble
Talk about an unpleasant end to what was supposed to be a great night. Kinda felt like...getting your hot dates dress off and discovering she has a schlong.
Not a lot can be taken from a single game, especially a single game in which the wheels feel off half-way through. However, a bunch of my pet peeves showed up again last night - Kipper still doesn't look like a difference maker, Conroy on the first line (F---!!) and the powerplay (double f---!!), a slow and easily exposed third pairing worth $6.3M in cap space. Here's my own humble observations, with the noted caveat that this was only a single (terrible) game:
Im worried about:
- Kipper. If you're a Flames fan and you aren't worried about the goaltending situation by now, you're either a liar or delusional.
To be fair, last night's loss can't be laid at Kiprusoff's feet. The team in front of him lost checks and gave up odd-man rushes all night long. They also didn't score a goal. Still, Kipper didn't look like an elite goalie trying valiantly to bail out his lackluster teammates last night - he looked like a thoroughly average goalie under siege. He's looked like that for awhile now.
- Aucoin. He's just so bloody immobile. As predicted, I think his 4M contract is going to look like a boat anchor all year.
- Vandermeer. Vandy is what he is: a third pairing guy who can stick up for his teammates and rattle some cages. He looks dangerous in a bad way paired with Aucoin. I can almost guarantee we're going to be talking about his needlessly large salary down the road.
- Conroy. Keenan loves Conroy. He rates him as the Flames best "checking" option and likes to roll him against the big boys (which is the only reason I can think for starting him with Jarome last night. Keenan wanted to go power v power against the Sedins). Unfortunately, Conroy has looked like shit so far and he isn't getting any younger. He wasn't good in the preseason and he was laughably bad last night.
You know what? I love Conroy too. I think he's funny, gregarious and probably a great teammate. I earnestly hope he sticks around the organization or goes into broadcasting when his career is over. But Craig Conroy doesn't belong in the top 6 nor on the powerplay. The Flames have a glut of capable centers. Cut that stupid shit out.
- Bertuzzi. Looks like we're going to see the Iginla/Bert experiment play out here. I dont have high hopes for it. I think what we're all going to realize soon is Bertuzzi is a bigger, broodier but somehow lesser version of Kristian Huselius. Juice caught a lot of flack for being soft and streaky last year. He may yet prove me wrong, but I think Bertuzzi will be both those things, except wont end up as the 2nd leading scoring on the club.
- ES scoring. Again, one game sample size, but...Calgary looked fairly dangerous when on the PP...and almost completely toothless otherwise - especially when Jarome wasn't on the ice.
What Im not too worried about (yet?):
- Iginla. I thought Iggy was great, esecially in the first half when the outcome was still in question. Plus, you know, he's Iginla.
- Giordano. Looks to me like he's notably improved since the last time we saw him in the league. If he continues to take strides this season, we have a legit top 4 defender on our hands here. His confidence and ability in the offensive zone are striking.
- Cammalleri. Relatively quiet, but there were flashes of his ability. I think once he settles down he'll be full value.
- Bourque. Frustrated me all night with his inability to bear down on opportunities or get shots through to the net. Still, all the other tools were there. I dont think he's going to score a lot and may be ill-suited for top 6 work. Still, he looks like a capable checker/PKer to me.
- The PK. Possibly the only portion of the Flames performance that was acceptable.
That's about all I'm willing to decipher from this disasters black box. Time to erase the bad memories with some stiff booze and move on.
PS - I hate you, Vancouver.
Not a lot can be taken from a single game, especially a single game in which the wheels feel off half-way through. However, a bunch of my pet peeves showed up again last night - Kipper still doesn't look like a difference maker, Conroy on the first line (F---!!) and the powerplay (double f---!!), a slow and easily exposed third pairing worth $6.3M in cap space. Here's my own humble observations, with the noted caveat that this was only a single (terrible) game:
Im worried about:
- Kipper. If you're a Flames fan and you aren't worried about the goaltending situation by now, you're either a liar or delusional.
To be fair, last night's loss can't be laid at Kiprusoff's feet. The team in front of him lost checks and gave up odd-man rushes all night long. They also didn't score a goal. Still, Kipper didn't look like an elite goalie trying valiantly to bail out his lackluster teammates last night - he looked like a thoroughly average goalie under siege. He's looked like that for awhile now.
- Aucoin. He's just so bloody immobile. As predicted, I think his 4M contract is going to look like a boat anchor all year.
- Vandermeer. Vandy is what he is: a third pairing guy who can stick up for his teammates and rattle some cages. He looks dangerous in a bad way paired with Aucoin. I can almost guarantee we're going to be talking about his needlessly large salary down the road.
- Conroy. Keenan loves Conroy. He rates him as the Flames best "checking" option and likes to roll him against the big boys (which is the only reason I can think for starting him with Jarome last night. Keenan wanted to go power v power against the Sedins). Unfortunately, Conroy has looked like shit so far and he isn't getting any younger. He wasn't good in the preseason and he was laughably bad last night.
You know what? I love Conroy too. I think he's funny, gregarious and probably a great teammate. I earnestly hope he sticks around the organization or goes into broadcasting when his career is over. But Craig Conroy doesn't belong in the top 6 nor on the powerplay. The Flames have a glut of capable centers. Cut that stupid shit out.
- Bertuzzi. Looks like we're going to see the Iginla/Bert experiment play out here. I dont have high hopes for it. I think what we're all going to realize soon is Bertuzzi is a bigger, broodier but somehow lesser version of Kristian Huselius. Juice caught a lot of flack for being soft and streaky last year. He may yet prove me wrong, but I think Bertuzzi will be both those things, except wont end up as the 2nd leading scoring on the club.
- ES scoring. Again, one game sample size, but...Calgary looked fairly dangerous when on the PP...and almost completely toothless otherwise - especially when Jarome wasn't on the ice.
What Im not too worried about (yet?):
- Iginla. I thought Iggy was great, esecially in the first half when the outcome was still in question. Plus, you know, he's Iginla.
- Giordano. Looks to me like he's notably improved since the last time we saw him in the league. If he continues to take strides this season, we have a legit top 4 defender on our hands here. His confidence and ability in the offensive zone are striking.
- Cammalleri. Relatively quiet, but there were flashes of his ability. I think once he settles down he'll be full value.
- Bourque. Frustrated me all night with his inability to bear down on opportunities or get shots through to the net. Still, all the other tools were there. I dont think he's going to score a lot and may be ill-suited for top 6 work. Still, he looks like a capable checker/PKer to me.
- The PK. Possibly the only portion of the Flames performance that was acceptable.
That's about all I'm willing to decipher from this disasters black box. Time to erase the bad memories with some stiff booze and move on.
PS - I hate you, Vancouver.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Slight hiccup in the season opener there...
One game in and Im already busting out the ol' PICTORIAL SUMMATION.
Flames @ Cancucks - SEASON OPENER
Good way to put that silly Boyd kerfuffle behind us it to focus on the fact that HOCKEY'S BACK BABY. Flames head into the Luongo's house tonight with the goal of winning their first season opener since Christ was a child.
The Canucks were the only team to go undefeated during the pre-season I think (meh) and have also had the Flames number for the last year or so (more relevant). They beat the tar out of Calgary last week, a game in which Luongo already looked in pre-season form and Kiprusoff played like he was trying to be cut. At the very least, the latter half of that equation will have to change if the Flames are to break the opening night jinx.
Anyways, here's the lines from practice this morning according to Inside the Flames:
Bertuzzi-Conroy-Iginla
Cammalleri-Langkow-Bourque
Glencross-Lombardi-Moss
Boyd(!)-Primeau-Roy
Regehr-Aucoin
Vandermeer-Sarich
Giordano-Phaneuf
Aucoin with Regehr? Conroy centering Iginla? Lombardi on the bloody third line again? All I can say is these better NOT be the combinations we see this evening. If Conroy skates more than 2 shifts with Jarome with Lombardi, Boyd and Langkow in the line-up, my head might a'splode.
As for Aucoin with Regehr - can you picture that duo taking on the Sedins? No? Me neither.
What we can expect to see from the Canucks - Sedins with Bernier, Demitra with Raymond and Pyatt and a whole lot of crap from Burrows, where ever he is in the line-up. Im sure they'll run that strangling game-plan to perfection against as well.
Kipper's play is making me nervous and the Flames stink at opening night. Still, it's good to be watching the real thing again.
PREDICTION - the curse continues. 5-2 Canucks with Iginla and Boyd (heh) scoring for the good guys.
Go Flames. Prove me wrong.
PS - make sure to check out and harrass Waiting for Stanley and Yankee Canuck.
The Canucks were the only team to go undefeated during the pre-season I think (meh) and have also had the Flames number for the last year or so (more relevant). They beat the tar out of Calgary last week, a game in which Luongo already looked in pre-season form and Kiprusoff played like he was trying to be cut. At the very least, the latter half of that equation will have to change if the Flames are to break the opening night jinx.
Anyways, here's the lines from practice this morning according to Inside the Flames:
Bertuzzi-Conroy-Iginla
Cammalleri-Langkow-Bourque
Glencross-Lombardi-Moss
Boyd(!)-Primeau-Roy
Regehr-Aucoin
Vandermeer-Sarich
Giordano-Phaneuf
Aucoin with Regehr? Conroy centering Iginla? Lombardi on the bloody third line again? All I can say is these better NOT be the combinations we see this evening. If Conroy skates more than 2 shifts with Jarome with Lombardi, Boyd and Langkow in the line-up, my head might a'splode.
As for Aucoin with Regehr - can you picture that duo taking on the Sedins? No? Me neither.
What we can expect to see from the Canucks - Sedins with Bernier, Demitra with Raymond and Pyatt and a whole lot of crap from Burrows, where ever he is in the line-up. Im sure they'll run that strangling game-plan to perfection against as well.
Kipper's play is making me nervous and the Flames stink at opening night. Still, it's good to be watching the real thing again.
PREDICTION - the curse continues. 5-2 Canucks with Iginla and Boyd (heh) scoring for the good guys.
Go Flames. Prove me wrong.
PS - make sure to check out and harrass Waiting for Stanley and Yankee Canuck.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
You have got to be fu**ing kidding me...
*&^*&^*&%*&^^(^!!
According to Inside the Flames, Sutter has put his pet Rhett Warrener on IR...and...sent DUSTIN BOYD to the minors. Can you fucking believe this??
If this isn't rectified in short order, expect an extended, invective filled rant.
EDIT - Sutter seemed to imply on the radio that this is a temporary move that won't last ("rosters change everyday..."). I bloody well hope so.
EDIT - for those of you unaware of the rules governing IR in the NHL:
In the event that a player is injured and a Club wishes to place him on the Injured Reserve List the Club must follow these procedures:
1. A club may place a player on the Injured Reserve List if such player is injured, disabled or ill and unable to perform his duties as a hockey player after having passed the Club's initial physical examination in that season.
2. A player who has an injury that renders him physically unable to play for a minimum of seven days after that date of the injury can be placed on the Club's Injured Reserve List. Once a player is placed on the list, the Club may replace said player on its NHL roster with another player. All determinations that a player has suffered an injury warranting injured reserve status must be made by the Club's medical staff and in accordance with the Club's medical standards.
3. A player placed on Injured Reserve is ineligible to compete in NHL games for a period of not less than seven days.
Players on Injured Reserve may attend Club meetings and meals, travel with the Club and participate in practice sessions.
What does this mean? The cap relief from Warrener being injured is non-existant. It also means he can't play for the next 7 days, even if he's traded. Meaning it's unlikely he'll be traded. I think that also means Boyd has to remain in the minors for at least a week, no?
There's a possibility that Warrener was suddenly, conveniently injured just as he received his QC papers (I believe guys on IR are ineligible for re-assignment) but that strikes me as incredibly dubious. The guy was playing his heart out to make the team the entire pre-season and is suddenly too hurt to play on the eve of the regular season (several days after the last exhibition game?).
Final update -
Apparently, Warrener has been placed on LTIR and Boyd has been recalled.
What this means is: the Flames have less than zero cap room to play with this year. Warrener's salary is still technically on the books, but the team is allowed to exceed the cap by that amount in order to "replace" him on the roster. If he is ever declared "fit to play" (wont happen, he's finished), the team is over the cap again. Actually, it means the team is over the cap now. There will be no budget flexibility without moving some significant salary.
Before I get past this, I'd like to add that it strikes me as preposterous that Warrener is "suddenly" too injured to play. I think this is a last ditch move by Sutter to spare his most precious the indignity of being put in the minors for his final year.
To be clear - I dont think that Warrener *isn't* actually injured. It's clear, however, that he's been injured for some time. I don't think this is a new injury, I think it's a chronic condition of player that has obviously been held together by hat pins and prayers the last couple of seasons - and LTIR is just a way to give him his full salary and keep him from the minors. It's overly preferential, it's Mickey Mouse and it's detrimental to the organization.
Warrener should have been bought out this the summer. Prust and Roy should not have been signed (and Eriksson and Zyuzin and Nilson and...). Primeau shouldn't be on this team for 1.4M a year. This fiasco involving Boyd shouldn't have occured at all.
Ditch this bullshit.
PS - If you haven't already, check out Matt's screed on the subject.
According to Inside the Flames, Sutter has put his pet Rhett Warrener on IR...and...sent DUSTIN BOYD to the minors. Can you fucking believe this??
If this isn't rectified in short order, expect an extended, invective filled rant.
EDIT - Sutter seemed to imply on the radio that this is a temporary move that won't last ("rosters change everyday..."). I bloody well hope so.
EDIT - for those of you unaware of the rules governing IR in the NHL:
In the event that a player is injured and a Club wishes to place him on the Injured Reserve List the Club must follow these procedures:
1. A club may place a player on the Injured Reserve List if such player is injured, disabled or ill and unable to perform his duties as a hockey player after having passed the Club's initial physical examination in that season.
2. A player who has an injury that renders him physically unable to play for a minimum of seven days after that date of the injury can be placed on the Club's Injured Reserve List. Once a player is placed on the list, the Club may replace said player on its NHL roster with another player. All determinations that a player has suffered an injury warranting injured reserve status must be made by the Club's medical staff and in accordance with the Club's medical standards.
3. A player placed on Injured Reserve is ineligible to compete in NHL games for a period of not less than seven days.
Players on Injured Reserve may attend Club meetings and meals, travel with the Club and participate in practice sessions.
What does this mean? The cap relief from Warrener being injured is non-existant. It also means he can't play for the next 7 days, even if he's traded. Meaning it's unlikely he'll be traded. I think that also means Boyd has to remain in the minors for at least a week, no?
There's a possibility that Warrener was suddenly, conveniently injured just as he received his QC papers (I believe guys on IR are ineligible for re-assignment) but that strikes me as incredibly dubious. The guy was playing his heart out to make the team the entire pre-season and is suddenly too hurt to play on the eve of the regular season (several days after the last exhibition game?).
Final update -
Apparently, Warrener has been placed on LTIR and Boyd has been recalled.
What this means is: the Flames have less than zero cap room to play with this year. Warrener's salary is still technically on the books, but the team is allowed to exceed the cap by that amount in order to "replace" him on the roster. If he is ever declared "fit to play" (wont happen, he's finished), the team is over the cap again. Actually, it means the team is over the cap now. There will be no budget flexibility without moving some significant salary.
Before I get past this, I'd like to add that it strikes me as preposterous that Warrener is "suddenly" too injured to play. I think this is a last ditch move by Sutter to spare his most precious the indignity of being put in the minors for his final year.
To be clear - I dont think that Warrener *isn't* actually injured. It's clear, however, that he's been injured for some time. I don't think this is a new injury, I think it's a chronic condition of player that has obviously been held together by hat pins and prayers the last couple of seasons - and LTIR is just a way to give him his full salary and keep him from the minors. It's overly preferential, it's Mickey Mouse and it's detrimental to the organization.
Warrener should have been bought out this the summer. Prust and Roy should not have been signed (and Eriksson and Zyuzin and Nilson and...). Primeau shouldn't be on this team for 1.4M a year. This fiasco involving Boyd shouldn't have occured at all.
Ditch this bullshit.
PS - If you haven't already, check out Matt's screed on the subject.
Calling all undead
A time-out from hockey related content for a moment to shill for my friend Chris Carolan who is organizing the 3rd annual Calgary Zombie Walk for this weekend.
The shambling horde has grown to several hundred since the events inception, so drop by and eat some brains if it suits your fancy. I think it all starts at 3pm this Saturday at Olympic Plaza.
Happy Hockey Eve!
And with that, I think I'll unveil my NW Division prognostications:
1.) Minnesota Wild
Every year I look at the Wild's roster and end up underwhelmed. And every year they surprise me.
Well, not this year. I think they have an unspectacular forward group that is susceptible to injury. However, Gaborik, Koivu and (to a lesser extent) PM Bouchard are all very good players who could conceivably take a step forward this year. Then there's the improved back-end which should be deadly on the PP.
Minnesota is always hard to score on and always has excellent special teams thanks to Lemaire. Unless Gabbers gets hurt in the first week and stays out of the line-up all year, I think the Wild are a good bet to win the division.
2.) Colorado Avalanche
The only real weaknesses on this team are: health and goaltending. The Avs bloggers have been banging the drum for Budaj the last few weeks, but Im not yet convinced that he's anything above mediocre. That said, the forward and defensive groups for this club are solid from top to bottom. This is also a team that finished in second place last season despite major injuries to Sakic, Stastny, Hejduk and Leopold (and probably Svatos). A surprising Budaj and/or a healthy line-up and this team could unseat Minnesota.
3.) Calgary Flames
Let's face it: these guys could finish first or last, which is why I have them in the middle. The offense should be middling and the defense should be improved. Kipper is obviously the biggest question mark and the returns from the pre-season have not been heartening. Injuries could also be a factor for the first time in a couple of years.
4.) Vancouver Canucks
A lot of very smart people like these guys to finish high in the standings, so Im loathe to disagree. Still, despite their deep blueline and excellent goaltending, Im very dubious of Vancouver. The forwad depth is just abysmal: they have Mason Raymond and Taylor Pyatt on their second line and Steve Bernier on their first. Demitra is expected to make the secondary attack float, even though he's a virtual lock to miss 15-20 games.
I also think that their injury concerns on the back-end aren't totally born of bad luck: the Canucks travel a ton and just happen to have several injury prone players on the blueline. It makes for a lot of infirmary visits.
5.) Edmonton Oilers
Surprise, surprise...I pick the Oilers to suck.
Lots of optimism in Oil country this year, but Im afraid I dont buy it. I think the vaunted kid line is going to give back more than thy score this year and that 3rd line featuring Moreau and Penner scares no one. They've decided to go with an entirely useless "all goon" 4th line as well, which I doubt will add any points to the standings. The first line looks alright, but Im guessing one of Cole or Horcoff will eventually be demoted in the interests of making one of the lower lines float.
I think Garon is poised to take step back as well and the chances this club repeats that Shout-out/OT record are next to none.
Sorry Oil fans. You're darlings of the MSM, but I think you'll be play-off-less again this season.
1.) Minnesota Wild
Every year I look at the Wild's roster and end up underwhelmed. And every year they surprise me.
Well, not this year. I think they have an unspectacular forward group that is susceptible to injury. However, Gaborik, Koivu and (to a lesser extent) PM Bouchard are all very good players who could conceivably take a step forward this year. Then there's the improved back-end which should be deadly on the PP.
Minnesota is always hard to score on and always has excellent special teams thanks to Lemaire. Unless Gabbers gets hurt in the first week and stays out of the line-up all year, I think the Wild are a good bet to win the division.
2.) Colorado Avalanche
The only real weaknesses on this team are: health and goaltending. The Avs bloggers have been banging the drum for Budaj the last few weeks, but Im not yet convinced that he's anything above mediocre. That said, the forward and defensive groups for this club are solid from top to bottom. This is also a team that finished in second place last season despite major injuries to Sakic, Stastny, Hejduk and Leopold (and probably Svatos). A surprising Budaj and/or a healthy line-up and this team could unseat Minnesota.
3.) Calgary Flames
Let's face it: these guys could finish first or last, which is why I have them in the middle. The offense should be middling and the defense should be improved. Kipper is obviously the biggest question mark and the returns from the pre-season have not been heartening. Injuries could also be a factor for the first time in a couple of years.
4.) Vancouver Canucks
A lot of very smart people like these guys to finish high in the standings, so Im loathe to disagree. Still, despite their deep blueline and excellent goaltending, Im very dubious of Vancouver. The forwad depth is just abysmal: they have Mason Raymond and Taylor Pyatt on their second line and Steve Bernier on their first. Demitra is expected to make the secondary attack float, even though he's a virtual lock to miss 15-20 games.
I also think that their injury concerns on the back-end aren't totally born of bad luck: the Canucks travel a ton and just happen to have several injury prone players on the blueline. It makes for a lot of infirmary visits.
5.) Edmonton Oilers
Surprise, surprise...I pick the Oilers to suck.
Lots of optimism in Oil country this year, but Im afraid I dont buy it. I think the vaunted kid line is going to give back more than thy score this year and that 3rd line featuring Moreau and Penner scares no one. They've decided to go with an entirely useless "all goon" 4th line as well, which I doubt will add any points to the standings. The first line looks alright, but Im guessing one of Cole or Horcoff will eventually be demoted in the interests of making one of the lower lines float.
I think Garon is poised to take step back as well and the chances this club repeats that Shout-out/OT record are next to none.
Sorry Oil fans. You're darlings of the MSM, but I think you'll be play-off-less again this season.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Making a case for blocking shots
With the season approaching, the opportunity for me to write another lengthy post on a trivial subject is shrinking. So here's one more before things start getting interesting...
Something I've noticed about the Calgary Flames the last few years is they don't tend to block a lot of shots. I've heard it rumored they actually employ this as a strategy: the default setting in the defensive zone is "clear traffic so Kipper can see the shot."
Now, on one hand, this seems sensible. A failed shot block can end up in an unwitting screen or tip, increasing the chances of a goal against. Blocking a shot can also take a defender out of the play or cause an injury, depending on circumstances.
On the other hand, there is a 0% chance of a successfully blocked shot going in the net. That seems, to me, to be a worthwhile gamble assuming that most of your attempted blocks are successful and dont end up in screens/deflections.
I took a look at the numbers to see how the Flames did at blocking shots last season. Turns out, they were indeed at the low end of the scale (and were the only team without a player at or above the 100 plateau). First the info:
click to enlarge
What we have here is total blocked shots, average BlkS per player and per game. While collecting the data, I realized that BlkS numbers alone weren't going to be meaningful because some teams spend a lot more time in their end (due to taking more penalties, being worse than other teams, etc) and therefore tend to block more or less shots as a function of zone time/possession. For example, Detroit only blocked about 9.6 shots/game last season, but they only yielded about 23.5 shots against a night (league low) thanks to their dominance and tendency to keep the puck away from the other team.
As such, I looked at blocked shots relative to shots yielded to give me an idea of how well/often a club was getting in front of pucks in the proper context. Basically, I totaled both blocked shots and shots against and divided the resultant sum by blocked shots. I think this clarified things to a degree: Detroit, for example, only blocked 9.6 shots/game while about 33.16 shots were being directed at their net every night (blocked shots+shots against). Calgary, on the other hand, blocked slightly more shots per game (9.9), but mainly because they had more pucks flying around at the bad end of the ice (38.41). So while the Wings blocked less shots on average, we can probably say they were better at it than the Flames were (29% of total versus 26% of total).
The Flames poor BlkS rate was actually third worst in the league - above only Los Angeles (25%) and Anaheim (24%) - and trailed the league average by a full 3%. While that doesn't sound like much, we're talking about thousands of shots here. Hypothetically speaking (and assuming a stable rate of total shots directed at net) if the Flames could have blocked shots at the mean rate (29%), it would have resulted in about 1.23 less shots on net per game, or almost 101 less shots over the course of the year. At Kipper's .906 SV%, that would have saved about 9.5 goals against which is a fairly significant number. A GD of +11 would have been the 2nd best in the division behind Colorado's +12 and likely would have meant a higher finish in the conference (and thus, no date with the Sharks in the first round).
Of course, disallowing the opposition to shoot at your net at all is the best way to go. However, if the bad guys are going to be taking shots, you might as well get in front of them as frequently as possible. What I dont know here is what moderates blocked shots: player skill, coaching or luck. If it's the latter, then we can say the team was simply unfortunate last season and hope they rebound this year. However, if the coaching staff is promoting a "get out of the way" strategy and that is indeed the primary driver behind the Flames lower blocked shot rates, I would suggest that the strategy be ditched forthwith.
Something I've noticed about the Calgary Flames the last few years is they don't tend to block a lot of shots. I've heard it rumored they actually employ this as a strategy: the default setting in the defensive zone is "clear traffic so Kipper can see the shot."
Now, on one hand, this seems sensible. A failed shot block can end up in an unwitting screen or tip, increasing the chances of a goal against. Blocking a shot can also take a defender out of the play or cause an injury, depending on circumstances.
On the other hand, there is a 0% chance of a successfully blocked shot going in the net. That seems, to me, to be a worthwhile gamble assuming that most of your attempted blocks are successful and dont end up in screens/deflections.
I took a look at the numbers to see how the Flames did at blocking shots last season. Turns out, they were indeed at the low end of the scale (and were the only team without a player at or above the 100 plateau). First the info:
click to enlargeWhat we have here is total blocked shots, average BlkS per player and per game. While collecting the data, I realized that BlkS numbers alone weren't going to be meaningful because some teams spend a lot more time in their end (due to taking more penalties, being worse than other teams, etc) and therefore tend to block more or less shots as a function of zone time/possession. For example, Detroit only blocked about 9.6 shots/game last season, but they only yielded about 23.5 shots against a night (league low) thanks to their dominance and tendency to keep the puck away from the other team.
As such, I looked at blocked shots relative to shots yielded to give me an idea of how well/often a club was getting in front of pucks in the proper context. Basically, I totaled both blocked shots and shots against and divided the resultant sum by blocked shots. I think this clarified things to a degree: Detroit, for example, only blocked 9.6 shots/game while about 33.16 shots were being directed at their net every night (blocked shots+shots against). Calgary, on the other hand, blocked slightly more shots per game (9.9), but mainly because they had more pucks flying around at the bad end of the ice (38.41). So while the Wings blocked less shots on average, we can probably say they were better at it than the Flames were (29% of total versus 26% of total).
The Flames poor BlkS rate was actually third worst in the league - above only Los Angeles (25%) and Anaheim (24%) - and trailed the league average by a full 3%. While that doesn't sound like much, we're talking about thousands of shots here. Hypothetically speaking (and assuming a stable rate of total shots directed at net) if the Flames could have blocked shots at the mean rate (29%), it would have resulted in about 1.23 less shots on net per game, or almost 101 less shots over the course of the year. At Kipper's .906 SV%, that would have saved about 9.5 goals against which is a fairly significant number. A GD of +11 would have been the 2nd best in the division behind Colorado's +12 and likely would have meant a higher finish in the conference (and thus, no date with the Sharks in the first round).
Of course, disallowing the opposition to shoot at your net at all is the best way to go. However, if the bad guys are going to be taking shots, you might as well get in front of them as frequently as possible. What I dont know here is what moderates blocked shots: player skill, coaching or luck. If it's the latter, then we can say the team was simply unfortunate last season and hope they rebound this year. However, if the coaching staff is promoting a "get out of the way" strategy and that is indeed the primary driver behind the Flames lower blocked shot rates, I would suggest that the strategy be ditched forthwith.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Three for three
From tsn.ca:
The Calgary Flames have put defencemen Anders Eriksson and Rhett Warrener and forward Jamie Lundmark on the waiver wire.
And, from my post below:
The roster is still swollen by three or four extra bodies which will have to go away by next Thursday. Candidates are: Warrener, Eriksson, Pardy, Lundmark and Prust. I'd place my bets on Warrener, Eriksson and Lundmark taking the long flight.
I wish I could say this was some sort of amazing prescience, but really...the writing was on the wall.
I can only assume this is the first step to sending these guys down to the farm.
Can I get a "hell yeah!"?
Also - a pre-emptive congratulations to Adam Pardy, who looks to have cracked the squad.
The Calgary Flames have put defencemen Anders Eriksson and Rhett Warrener and forward Jamie Lundmark on the waiver wire.
And, from my post below:
The roster is still swollen by three or four extra bodies which will have to go away by next Thursday. Candidates are: Warrener, Eriksson, Pardy, Lundmark and Prust. I'd place my bets on Warrener, Eriksson and Lundmark taking the long flight.
I wish I could say this was some sort of amazing prescience, but really...the writing was on the wall.
I can only assume this is the first step to sending these guys down to the farm.
Can I get a "hell yeah!"?
Also - a pre-emptive congratulations to Adam Pardy, who looks to have cracked the squad.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Misc.
- Flames cut another 3 guys today, sending Armstrong and Keetley to the farm and Backlund back to Sweden. The roster is still swollen by three or four extra bodies which will have to go away by next Thursday. Candidates are: Warrener, Eriksson, Pardy, Lundmark and Prust. I'd place my bets on Warrener, Eriksson and Lundmark taking the long flight.
- Todd Bertuzzi caught a Giordano slap-shot in the ankle area last night. Word is today that nothing is broken and it's just a deep bruise (good news...?). On that front, I thought Bertuzzi was pretty bad last night. Lots of cruising around, lots of needlessly complicated passes leading to give-aways. I know he's going to start the year with Jarome, but nothing he's done this preseason has convinced me he belongs there.
- Kipper was awful again last night. Two of the Oilers three goals were scored from the corner and behind the net. Flames won the game despite their $8M man, not because of him. I'm quite nervous about his play heading into the home opener (and beyond).
- Hard not to like Glencross. He's been a positive contributor every night he's played and his OT goal last night was just a cherry on top.
- Adrian Aucoin was dreadful too. Again. His play so far reminds me of the first game I saw him play as a Flame (home opener against the Flyers last year). I turned to my friend about half way through the contest and said, "Aucoin reminds me of something: it's brown, floats in water and isn't made of wood."
Maybe Im seeing things because I kinda expect Aucoin to be bad this year, so chime in if you think I have my head up my posterior.
- Todd Bertuzzi caught a Giordano slap-shot in the ankle area last night. Word is today that nothing is broken and it's just a deep bruise (good news...?). On that front, I thought Bertuzzi was pretty bad last night. Lots of cruising around, lots of needlessly complicated passes leading to give-aways. I know he's going to start the year with Jarome, but nothing he's done this preseason has convinced me he belongs there.
- Kipper was awful again last night. Two of the Oilers three goals were scored from the corner and behind the net. Flames won the game despite their $8M man, not because of him. I'm quite nervous about his play heading into the home opener (and beyond).
- Hard not to like Glencross. He's been a positive contributor every night he's played and his OT goal last night was just a cherry on top.
- Adrian Aucoin was dreadful too. Again. His play so far reminds me of the first game I saw him play as a Flame (home opener against the Flyers last year). I turned to my friend about half way through the contest and said, "Aucoin reminds me of something: it's brown, floats in water and isn't made of wood."
Maybe Im seeing things because I kinda expect Aucoin to be bad this year, so chime in if you think I have my head up my posterior.
Friday, October 03, 2008
Flames 'n Oilers in the final warm-up
The last exhbition game is on TV tonight, not that it'll be very interesting. The Flames are currently battling the flu, meaning a lot of guys will either be playing at half speed or sitting out entirely. According to "Boomer" from the Fan960 no less than six Flames are fighting the illness (Pardy, Phaneuf, Lombardi, Backlund, Langkow and Eriksson). Looks like Backlund's attempt to make the NHL this season will end with a whimper.
He also reports that the Oilers will be icing a suspect line-up lacking Cole, Hemsky, Horcoff, Souray and Visnovksy.
Perhaps the only somewhat interesting storyline heading into tonight is Shelbyville's addition of 265 pound Steve MacIntyre. Actually, it's not at all interesting except for being kinda sad.
You see, the Oilers and their fans are...sensitive about being small and frail. Watching Alice get pushed around every time he steps on the ice with Regehr will do that (not to mention season after season of injuries). Don't take my word for it, either:
“We’ve got a smaller team. Our skill-level is quite small,” MacTavish said after morning practice. “We have to be in the position to play the game without the opposition taking liberties.”
Sounds reasonable to me. You’d have to be exceedingly dim not to have noticed that Ales Hemsky spends too much time getting mugged and not enough time tormenting goaltenders because shut-down specialists like Robyn Regehr and Willie Mitchell or meatheads like Derek Boogaard knock him senseless every chance they get. And they’ve had a lot of chances without fear of retaliation these past two seasons.
...
I said it and wrote it before and I’ll say it and write it again—having a tough guy on the roster is a good investment, even if it’s one that’s used only 30–40 nights a season.
And don’t bother with the “You can’t waste a roster spot on a guy who can only play five minutes a night” argument. Yes, you can. Doing so is a lot more manageable than trying to fill a roster spot for 50 games because Hemsky or Gagner or Cogliano has been concussed courtesy of another Regehr hit from behind.
Likewise, if you’re going to go down that road, go all the way—get the biggest, meanest, baddest hammer you can find, even if he doesn’t have a clue what to do with his gloves on. In that regard, MacIntyre fills the bill.
That's Robin Brownlee over at Oilersnation. As those who know my position in this matter can probably predict, I think this is hilarious. Here's why:
We've already seen McIntyre twice with Florida. He barely played and didn't hit or fight or do anything. I paid attention to him because I saw in the pre-game lineup card he weighed 265lbs. He sucked in both those games and I have no problems with the Coilers wasting a roster spot with a guy like that and Stortini.
That second Florida game he would have fought, it wasn't for lack of trying. No dance partner. (bold mine)
That's posters Cactus Jack and Aeneas from this thread. Hmmm...why does that sound familiar?
With the strict instigator rules that include penalties, suspensions and fines, not to mention the existing codes of etiquette and conduct regarding beating on an unwilling partner, the ability of a goon "to do his job" is directly moderated by the oppositions willingness to engage him in fisticuffs.
from my screed on enforcers this summer.
My point is: MacIntyre won't do a damn thing tonight. He won't stop Regehr or Warrener from hitting people. He won't intimidate anybody. In the end, he'll probably only play four minutes of hockey. The extent of his work may come in some meaningless dust-up with Andre Roy - *yawn*. In fact, as my comment at Oilersnation expresses, I'd love to see this guy make the Oilers: he would instantly make them slower and easier to score on. The fact that he's 28 and has yet to play a regular season NHL game should say something...
-----------------------------------------------------------
Perhaps the only real reason for Flames fans to tune in tonight is Rhett Warrener. The old warrior is battling for his career in this game and will no doubt be out for blood. Not that it will matter. If Im reading the tea leaves correctly, this may be one of the last times to see Warrener in NHL action. I think Adam Pardy has made this team with his performance in training camp and the cap situation being what it is means there's just no room for Rhetzky on this roster anymore. His humble parcel of skills and tendency to miss 20 games a year due to injury just can't be overcome by will and gumption, although he has the latter two in excess.
So although the outcome may be meaningless and the rosters might be lackluster, tuning in to watch Warrener chew nails, spit out trash talk and beat up on Oiler rookies should be worthwhile.
He also reports that the Oilers will be icing a suspect line-up lacking Cole, Hemsky, Horcoff, Souray and Visnovksy.
Perhaps the only somewhat interesting storyline heading into tonight is Shelbyville's addition of 265 pound Steve MacIntyre. Actually, it's not at all interesting except for being kinda sad.
You see, the Oilers and their fans are...sensitive about being small and frail. Watching Alice get pushed around every time he steps on the ice with Regehr will do that (not to mention season after season of injuries). Don't take my word for it, either:
“We’ve got a smaller team. Our skill-level is quite small,” MacTavish said after morning practice. “We have to be in the position to play the game without the opposition taking liberties.”
Sounds reasonable to me. You’d have to be exceedingly dim not to have noticed that Ales Hemsky spends too much time getting mugged and not enough time tormenting goaltenders because shut-down specialists like Robyn Regehr and Willie Mitchell or meatheads like Derek Boogaard knock him senseless every chance they get. And they’ve had a lot of chances without fear of retaliation these past two seasons.
...
I said it and wrote it before and I’ll say it and write it again—having a tough guy on the roster is a good investment, even if it’s one that’s used only 30–40 nights a season.
And don’t bother with the “You can’t waste a roster spot on a guy who can only play five minutes a night” argument. Yes, you can. Doing so is a lot more manageable than trying to fill a roster spot for 50 games because Hemsky or Gagner or Cogliano has been concussed courtesy of another Regehr hit from behind.
Likewise, if you’re going to go down that road, go all the way—get the biggest, meanest, baddest hammer you can find, even if he doesn’t have a clue what to do with his gloves on. In that regard, MacIntyre fills the bill.
That's Robin Brownlee over at Oilersnation. As those who know my position in this matter can probably predict, I think this is hilarious. Here's why:
We've already seen McIntyre twice with Florida. He barely played and didn't hit or fight or do anything. I paid attention to him because I saw in the pre-game lineup card he weighed 265lbs. He sucked in both those games and I have no problems with the Coilers wasting a roster spot with a guy like that and Stortini.
That second Florida game he would have fought, it wasn't for lack of trying. No dance partner. (bold mine)
That's posters Cactus Jack and Aeneas from this thread. Hmmm...why does that sound familiar?
With the strict instigator rules that include penalties, suspensions and fines, not to mention the existing codes of etiquette and conduct regarding beating on an unwilling partner, the ability of a goon "to do his job" is directly moderated by the oppositions willingness to engage him in fisticuffs.
from my screed on enforcers this summer.
My point is: MacIntyre won't do a damn thing tonight. He won't stop Regehr or Warrener from hitting people. He won't intimidate anybody. In the end, he'll probably only play four minutes of hockey. The extent of his work may come in some meaningless dust-up with Andre Roy - *yawn*. In fact, as my comment at Oilersnation expresses, I'd love to see this guy make the Oilers: he would instantly make them slower and easier to score on. The fact that he's 28 and has yet to play a regular season NHL game should say something...
-----------------------------------------------------------
Perhaps the only real reason for Flames fans to tune in tonight is Rhett Warrener. The old warrior is battling for his career in this game and will no doubt be out for blood. Not that it will matter. If Im reading the tea leaves correctly, this may be one of the last times to see Warrener in NHL action. I think Adam Pardy has made this team with his performance in training camp and the cap situation being what it is means there's just no room for Rhetzky on this roster anymore. His humble parcel of skills and tendency to miss 20 games a year due to injury just can't be overcome by will and gumption, although he has the latter two in excess.
So although the outcome may be meaningless and the rosters might be lackluster, tuning in to watch Warrener chew nails, spit out trash talk and beat up on Oiler rookies should be worthwhile.
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