Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Game Day: Caps at Flames

NHL.com preview

Boy is this the wrong opponent for Calgary right now. The Capitals are currently one of the strongest teams at ES in the league, whereas the Flames are one of the weakest.

Washington has scored 14 ES goals in 5 games so far and are +6 5on5. The Flames have scored 8 and, due to their 29th ranked 14 ES GA, are -6. In addition, the home club has floundered with Jarome Iginla's struggles. The Capitals, in contrast, have excelled despite the ineffectiveness of their own superstar (Ovechkin), who also has just three points so far.

Consolation resides in the fact that the Caps are having goaltending problems too (Theodore - 3.62 GAA, 0.862 SV%) and that their special teams are somehow worse than Calgary's (PP - WSH 14th, CGY 11th, PK - WSH 29th, CGY 19th) at the moment.

Not that that provides much solace. The visitors have a forward group built to exploit shoddy defensive coverage and average goaltending: their one-two punch on the left side of Ovechkin and Semin is bloody frightening, partially because Semin looks like a superstar right now. I watched the recent Vancouver de-pantsing at the hands of the Capitals and it was an eye-opening experience. While WSH doesn't have the best blueline in the world, they have line after line of big, fast, aggressive forwards, half of which are capable of humiliating inattentive defenders (Semin, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Federov, Nylander). I know Federov looked like a toothless lion in Columbus the last few seasons, but he's resembling a Selke winner reborn for the Caps so far: JP from Jaspers Rink has been charting the corsi outcomes from each Washington contest and the old man is putting up massive numbers. This despite the fact (or because of perhaps?) he's actually played defense for a couple of games.

Once you get past Federov down the middle, you have Nylander and Backstrom to contend with. Ugh. I dont like the looks of this game at all. Twelve months removed from Calgary being a "contender" with Washington being assigned to the basement of the Eastern Conference by the assorted punditry. No longer. Welcome to underdog status, Flames fans.

On the Flames side, TSN recently reported that Cammalleri was practicing as Iginla's centerman. I like that move, although it shunts Lombardi to the wing with Langkow dropping to the second line. All of this is probably pissing in the wind, however, given Keenan's tendency to blend things up once the game starts. Whatever happens, though...PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DONT PUT CONROY ON THE FIRST LINE. PLEASE. PLEASE!! IT HASN'T WORKED. IT DOESN'T WORK. DO ANYTHING SOMETHING ELSE. ANYTHING. I BEG YOU.

(Maybe outright grovelling will succeed where reason and snark have failed. I guess we'll see.)

Prediction - Washington 5, Calgary 2. Ovechkin breaks out with a hat trick, Semin and Backstrom add insult to injury. Lombardi and Moss finally bust their personal goose eggs for the Flames.