Tuesday, October 28, 2008

So far in review

So the Flames are slowly righting the ship after a shaky 1-3-1 start. Iginla has his groove back, Kipper has starter-like stats through the last couple and it sounds like Regehr and Phaneuf are rounding into form.

Unfortunately, Im going to rain on the parade a little here. Calgary's schedule through the first couple of weeks was, well...buttery soft. Canucks X2, Oilers X2, Colorado, Washington, Nashville and Phoenix. There are two, maybe three play-off teams in that mix and not a one of them is what I'd dub "elite". The Red Wings, Sharks, Canadiens, Wild(s), Sabres and Rangers all await. It's one thing to be nominally above .500 versus fringe teams and basement dwellers. It's another to put up wins against the big boys.

On the other hand, the Flames are at least trending in the right direction. The special teams have recovered and are putting up good rates (PP 21.3%, PK 85.1%). The shooting rates and corsi numbers for most of the team are in the black and even guys like Primeau and Prust have been looking somewhat useful recently.

Anyways, here's some quirks of the opening 8 games that I've noticed and may as well pass along.

- Mark Giordano has been dropped from the 2nd pairing after some initial struggles and his ice-time has diminished as a result. I think he's still got some things to learn, being a sophomore, but I also think he's been a bit unlucky so far. His corsi number is an eye-popping +16.2, which is the best of any regular skater on the team. He hasn't really been rewarded in the points column for those efforts yet, garnering just two assists, but he tends to generate a lot of scoring chances when he's on the ice due to his skating, vision and uncanny ability to keep the puck in at the blueline. If he can speed up his decision making in the defensive zone, he could be a legit top 4 puck mover. If not, his ceiling may be Tom Preissing.

- Dustin Boyd looks great to my eye so far, but his numbers are crap. He's another guy that seems to get scored on whenever he's out there, whether he's at fault or not. Case in point: he had just stepped onto the ice when Ben Guite bounced that fluke goal over Kipper's shoulder during the Colorado game. He was also on the ice for The Coyotes lone goal Saturday night - and by that I mean he was literally *on the ice* because Todd Fedoruk apparently ran over him in the neutral zone during a line change.

I earnestly hope that Boyd starts to get rewarded for his efforts, because I think he's doing a lot right and things will turn in his favor if he just continues on his current path. The problem with young players - especially young players on a Keenan squad - is that they inevitably begin to try to change things if the results aren't there right away. Boyd just needs to keep doing what he's doing, however, and I hope that's what happens. The good news is his opportunity to contribute and stick with better linemates is expanded thanks to Lombardi's injury.

- Rene Bourque is quietly becoming a Keenan favorite I think. The guy has been top 6 through the first 8 games and even played with Iginla in Phoenix. This is something I thought may happen in the off-season, given that Bourque proved he could keep his head above water against stiff competition with the Blackhawks last year. His QUAL COMP figure isn't up there but that'll change pretty quick. All his other numbers are stellar though, from his corsi (+9.6), ESP (2.06) and GD/60 (+2.74).

Bourque doesn't seem to have the softest hands in the world, but he does almost everything else well. He's relatively fast, good in the corners and I've only seen one obvious error by him in the defensive zone so far this season (which is about 10 less than I've seen out of old Craig Conroy). All arrows are pointing in the right direction so far.