Once upon a time, the Nashville Predators regularly feasted on the Calgary Flames. For a couple of years between the lock-out and this season, Nashville was something of a nemsis for Calgary, regularly humiliating the Flames in high scoring affairs (no matter where the two teams were in relation to each other in the standings).
Well, no longer. The lackluster fan support and shakey financial standing of their ownership has finally taken it's toll on the club. Selling off talent and spending well under the cap isn't a winning long-term strategy in the NHL.
Yup, Nashville is worse than mediocre now. They can't score, their goaltending is a question mark, they have a -21 GD and they have 6 teams above them in the play-off race. What's more, the Flames have beaten them every time they've played them this season.
Prediction - Flames 4, Preds 1. Iginla, Langkow, Moss and Phaneuf for Calgary. Arnott for Nashville.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Cammalleri - to keep or not to keep...
On the heels of yet another hat trick, that is the question currently.
Firstly, let's get a snapshot of the player.
He'll turn 27 in June and has three times scored 20+ goals in the NHL and once broken the 80 point mark (although he's on pace to do so again). He's currently first on the Flames in terms of goals (25) and PPG (12) and second on the team in points with 47. He also has a slightly better ESP/60 rate than Iginla (2.47 vs. 2.33) and the best PPP/60 rate of any regular PP skater (6.58).
That's the good stuff.
On the other hand, Cammalleri is a career minus player who tends to give up chances at ES. Also, while his CORSI rate this year is a healthy 10.8/60, it's actually a very middling number on a strong Flames squad, especially for a guy that enjoys some dcent line mates.
Finally, and perhaps the biggest flashing yellow "caution" sign for me, is his Shooting percentage of 17%. His career average is actually 12.4 (including this season) while prior it was probably down around 11 or so. It's always tough to argue against results with a snipe about SH%, but it's something that always seems to snap back to the mean eventually (just ask Jordan Staal or Mike Ribeiro).
The difference between his current and career average SH% sounds rather nominal, but the difference in terms of goals is marked: assuming 11.5% as a "real" shooting average, his expected goal output over the 147 shots he's managed so far is about 17; 8 below his current 25. Keep in mind that players who shoot lights out one year tend to fall below their career average the next as well...
That said, the next issue that has to be considered is the Flames cap space. According to NHLnumbers, Calgary has about in cap dollars committed next year. That's with Adrian Aucoin and Rhett Warrener off the books. Dustin Boyd, Adam Pardy, David Moss and Curtis MceLhinney will require marginal raises, Andre Roy can walk and Todd Bertuzzi will either have to be re-signed or replaced.
First let's assume Boyd, Pardy, Moss and CuMac are all re-upped and their raises absorb about 4M additional dollars. That's 47M spoken for, with two top 6 forwards left to consider and perhaps someone to replace the departing Aucoin.
This is where things start getting dicey. According to most pundits, the cap won't be increasing next year. In fact, some people expect it too fall, with it perhaps bottoming out around 50M. If that's true, the Flames won't have much wiggle room at all and will probably be forced to move guys like Sarich or Primeau for better bargains.
On the other hand, the team will have some room to play with if the cap is relatively static. I think both Bertuzzi and Aucoin could be replaced internally by promoting guys beneath them (Moss, Sarich) and then signing cheaper replacement level players to take those spots.
Aside from that, however, the team will need to invest in another legitimate top 6 guy - whether it's Cammalleri or someone else entirely. Undoubtedly it's going to come down to how Sutter values Cammalleri versus what the market dictates: if we get into a Gomez/Briere-style feeding frenzy in the off-season, the team might be better off letting Cammalleri walk at the $6 or 7M price-range - even if they can afford to pay him those kinds of dollars.
Firstly, let's get a snapshot of the player.
He'll turn 27 in June and has three times scored 20+ goals in the NHL and once broken the 80 point mark (although he's on pace to do so again). He's currently first on the Flames in terms of goals (25) and PPG (12) and second on the team in points with 47. He also has a slightly better ESP/60 rate than Iginla (2.47 vs. 2.33) and the best PPP/60 rate of any regular PP skater (6.58).
That's the good stuff.
On the other hand, Cammalleri is a career minus player who tends to give up chances at ES. Also, while his CORSI rate this year is a healthy 10.8/60, it's actually a very middling number on a strong Flames squad, especially for a guy that enjoys some dcent line mates.
Finally, and perhaps the biggest flashing yellow "caution" sign for me, is his Shooting percentage of 17%. His career average is actually 12.4 (including this season) while prior it was probably down around 11 or so. It's always tough to argue against results with a snipe about SH%, but it's something that always seems to snap back to the mean eventually (just ask Jordan Staal or Mike Ribeiro).
The difference between his current and career average SH% sounds rather nominal, but the difference in terms of goals is marked: assuming 11.5% as a "real" shooting average, his expected goal output over the 147 shots he's managed so far is about 17; 8 below his current 25. Keep in mind that players who shoot lights out one year tend to fall below their career average the next as well...
That said, the next issue that has to be considered is the Flames cap space. According to NHLnumbers, Calgary has about in cap dollars committed next year. That's with Adrian Aucoin and Rhett Warrener off the books. Dustin Boyd, Adam Pardy, David Moss and Curtis MceLhinney will require marginal raises, Andre Roy can walk and Todd Bertuzzi will either have to be re-signed or replaced.
First let's assume Boyd, Pardy, Moss and CuMac are all re-upped and their raises absorb about 4M additional dollars. That's 47M spoken for, with two top 6 forwards left to consider and perhaps someone to replace the departing Aucoin.
This is where things start getting dicey. According to most pundits, the cap won't be increasing next year. In fact, some people expect it too fall, with it perhaps bottoming out around 50M. If that's true, the Flames won't have much wiggle room at all and will probably be forced to move guys like Sarich or Primeau for better bargains.
On the other hand, the team will have some room to play with if the cap is relatively static. I think both Bertuzzi and Aucoin could be replaced internally by promoting guys beneath them (Moss, Sarich) and then signing cheaper replacement level players to take those spots.
Aside from that, however, the team will need to invest in another legitimate top 6 guy - whether it's Cammalleri or someone else entirely. Undoubtedly it's going to come down to how Sutter values Cammalleri versus what the market dictates: if we get into a Gomez/Briere-style feeding frenzy in the off-season, the team might be better off letting Cammalleri walk at the $6 or 7M price-range - even if they can afford to pay him those kinds of dollars.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Gameday - Flames vs. Sabres
Im kinda conflicted about this evening, given that the Buffaslugs became my second favorite team in the NHL last night.
Ahh, sweet Oiler suffering.
Anyways, Buffalo comes in fat and sassy having won 7 of their last 10. The vicious curb-stomping from last night pushed their GD up to +10 on the season, moving them ahead of the Flames in that regard (+8). Course, that might be a little deceiving since the Sabres managed to quintuple the ol' GD in one fell swoop.
Actually, the Flames and Sabres share a lot of similarities. Both teams score and get scored on a lot. Both have the same record in the last 10 games. Both are top 5 on the PK (3rd and 4th) and both have decent, if not spectacular, power plays (10th and 13th).
The contrasts are more subtle, but still apparent. Buffalo's scorers tend to get out-shot at ES, unlike the Flames. As such, the Sabres are the inferior club at 5on5 so far (-8 vs +1), despite playing in front of the superior goaltender. The thing that brings the two club's GD closer together is actually SH goals against: the Sabres have surrendered 0 (!) so far. The Flames? 9 (yuck).
Good news is, this is the second of a back-to-back for Buffalo and I think they used up a month worth of bounces last night. If Calgary can get through the first 10 minutes of rust (and manage not to give up 2 SHG) I think they can take this one. Also, neither Roy nor Regehr were suspended for the various shenanigans they pulled versus the BJ's (intimating the league implicitly supports cross-checking to the head and throat slash gestures). Yay!
Prediction - Flames 5, Sabres 3. Iginla, Langkow, Bertuzzi, Giordano and Lombardi for Calgary. Connolly, Roy and Gaustad for Buffalo.
PS - I'll be liveblogging the action over at thescore.com tonight. Join me via this link, or go over to thescore.com and click on "liveblog" when the time comes around. This is my first go for a third party, so any support would be appreciated.
Ahh, sweet Oiler suffering.
Anyways, Buffalo comes in fat and sassy having won 7 of their last 10. The vicious curb-stomping from last night pushed their GD up to +10 on the season, moving them ahead of the Flames in that regard (+8). Course, that might be a little deceiving since the Sabres managed to quintuple the ol' GD in one fell swoop.
Actually, the Flames and Sabres share a lot of similarities. Both teams score and get scored on a lot. Both have the same record in the last 10 games. Both are top 5 on the PK (3rd and 4th) and both have decent, if not spectacular, power plays (10th and 13th).
The contrasts are more subtle, but still apparent. Buffalo's scorers tend to get out-shot at ES, unlike the Flames. As such, the Sabres are the inferior club at 5on5 so far (-8 vs +1), despite playing in front of the superior goaltender. The thing that brings the two club's GD closer together is actually SH goals against: the Sabres have surrendered 0 (!) so far. The Flames? 9 (yuck).
Good news is, this is the second of a back-to-back for Buffalo and I think they used up a month worth of bounces last night. If Calgary can get through the first 10 minutes of rust (and manage not to give up 2 SHG) I think they can take this one. Also, neither Roy nor Regehr were suspended for the various shenanigans they pulled versus the BJ's (intimating the league implicitly supports cross-checking to the head and throat slash gestures). Yay!
Prediction - Flames 5, Sabres 3. Iginla, Langkow, Bertuzzi, Giordano and Lombardi for Calgary. Connolly, Roy and Gaustad for Buffalo.
PS - I'll be liveblogging the action over at thescore.com tonight. Join me via this link, or go over to thescore.com and click on "liveblog" when the time comes around. This is my first go for a third party, so any support would be appreciated.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Whenever something seems irrational, follow the sound of the cowbell...
Many of the regular readers here have surmised that Sutter will again be going after a veteran back-up for the play-off drive. And, right on cue, here's the report that the Flames might be interested in the recently waived Martin Gerber.
The Flames are rumoured to be considering bringing the veteran in as insurance in case workhorse Miikka Kiprusoff succumbs to a late-season injury.
According to a colleague in the nation's capital, the belief is the Flames might be interested if the Sens are willing to pick up half of the $1.5 million left on Gerber's salary.
It certainly makes sense.
Respectfully, Steve...no it doesn't.
You see - Martin Gerberg stinks. His .899 SV% this year is the worst of any Sens goalie by a good measure. He was recently waived in favor of 23 year-old rookie Brian Elliot, who has replaced him on the big roster - the second time in Gerber's not so illustrious career that he's been usurped by a snot-nose when things got tough.
In fact, I can't think of a more ineffecient use of the Flames meager cap space than acquiring the likes of Martin Gerber, who is not only performing at or below replacement level this year, but will likely watch 99% of the games from the bench anyways. To say nothing of what this potentially does to Curtis McElhinney.
Do Not Want.
Headline taken from this post.
Prospects update
As we wait for the real thing to get going I again, it seems like a good time to take stock of the future assets and how they're progressing.
AHL:
There is, unfortunately, not much to talk about on the farm. Like last year, the QC Flames are being led offensively by a marginal veteran in Jamie Lundmark. Greentree, Chucko and Germyn are the only other guys scoring above a .5 PPG pace and only three of the regular skaters are in the black in terms of plus/minus (Palin, Eriksson and VDG).
I think the one pleasant surprise surfacing in QC this year is Brett Palin. The 24 year old was the only farm player to get selected for the AHL all-star game, despite some pretty lackluster offensive totals. That suggests he's been doing some stellar work on the other side of the puck, which is further evidenced by his team leading +6 mark. The former Kelowna Rocket was also a relatively impressive +14 last season, for a similarly punchless club. Another Pardy-like depth guy in the making perhaps?
Also, it's notable that Chucko has apparently taken a big step forward this season, although I don't know how much can be attributed to a change in scenery (better linemates, more PP time, etc.) versus honest-to-goodness improvement. Still, he's already matched his previous seasons point totals in half the games played. Credit where credit is due.
At some point in the near future, I may take the time to give the farm club the Willis treatment, which is basically a way to suss out each player's quality of competition. It's incredibly labor intensive, however, so it may take a long dry spell or attractive bribes to convince to go forward with it. It be rally interesting to me to see if Lundmark et al. are scoring against the big boys or if someone like VDG is getting fed to the wolves for the scorer's benefit. It would also be instructive to see if Palin is indeed playing against tough competition.
Junior:
Im only going to look at the guys who intrigue me personally here.
- Greg Nemisz
By the numbers is having a whale of a season. 27 goals and 58 points in just 47 games so far, with a +39 (!) rating. He's currently on pace to best his previous point total by about 17. He's also 9th in OHL scoring.
A word of caution, however: Nemisz plays for the top ranked team in the CHL. The Windsor Spitfires have lost just 5 games in regulation so far, and have already clinched a play-off spot. They have a +99 GD and have won their last consecutive 13 games.
They're a juggernaut, and one would expect a sort of Bruins-like halo effect to settle over most of their players. In short, there may be some inflating going on here.
- TJ Brodie
Has cooled somewhat after his red hot start, but is still putting up some decent numbers with 7 goals and 35 points through 42 games. Brodie ranks 4th on his club in terms of scoring and easily has the highest PPG rate of any defender on the Spirit. Certainly an intriguing mid-round pick.
- Mitch Wahl
Another guy that came hard out of the gate, Wahl has setttled down into a PPG pace since. He has already bested his goal total from last season, but is on pace to fall short of his career high 73 points. The good news is, He's currently third on the Chiefs in scoring and also leads the club in terms of goals and +/-.
- Mikael Backlund
After his mediocre run in Sweden, Backlund's foray into North American Junior hockey has gone well so far with 2 goals and 6 points in 6 games played. Given he's already played amongst men in his homeland and here with the Flames, I'd really like to see a strong finish from Backlund this year: a better than 1.00 PPG rate would improve my faltering expectations of him as a future offensive contributor at the NHL level I think.
- John Negrin
Negrin was recently traded from the mediocre Kootenay Ice to the slightly less mediocre Swift Current Broncos. Since then, he's gone 1-5-6 in six games, so it looks like the new surroundings may be treating him well. His 6 goals are easily a career high and he's on pace to manage about 60 points by the end of the RS (again, a career best). He is currently tied for 10th in terms of overall scoring amongst defenders in the WHL, although his PPG pace of 0.84 actually places him inside the top 7 blueliners.
Some good stuff all around. There isn't much on the farm, but it looks like some of the Junior guys are coming along nicely (and I didn't even bother to look at Keith Aulie). There isn't much bubbling under right now, but the farm team should experience a decent injection of skill in a year or two.
AHL:
There is, unfortunately, not much to talk about on the farm. Like last year, the QC Flames are being led offensively by a marginal veteran in Jamie Lundmark. Greentree, Chucko and Germyn are the only other guys scoring above a .5 PPG pace and only three of the regular skaters are in the black in terms of plus/minus (Palin, Eriksson and VDG).
I think the one pleasant surprise surfacing in QC this year is Brett Palin. The 24 year old was the only farm player to get selected for the AHL all-star game, despite some pretty lackluster offensive totals. That suggests he's been doing some stellar work on the other side of the puck, which is further evidenced by his team leading +6 mark. The former Kelowna Rocket was also a relatively impressive +14 last season, for a similarly punchless club. Another Pardy-like depth guy in the making perhaps?
Also, it's notable that Chucko has apparently taken a big step forward this season, although I don't know how much can be attributed to a change in scenery (better linemates, more PP time, etc.) versus honest-to-goodness improvement. Still, he's already matched his previous seasons point totals in half the games played. Credit where credit is due.
At some point in the near future, I may take the time to give the farm club the Willis treatment, which is basically a way to suss out each player's quality of competition. It's incredibly labor intensive, however, so it may take a long dry spell or attractive bribes to convince to go forward with it. It be rally interesting to me to see if Lundmark et al. are scoring against the big boys or if someone like VDG is getting fed to the wolves for the scorer's benefit. It would also be instructive to see if Palin is indeed playing against tough competition.
Junior:
Im only going to look at the guys who intrigue me personally here.
- Greg Nemisz
By the numbers is having a whale of a season. 27 goals and 58 points in just 47 games so far, with a +39 (!) rating. He's currently on pace to best his previous point total by about 17. He's also 9th in OHL scoring.
A word of caution, however: Nemisz plays for the top ranked team in the CHL. The Windsor Spitfires have lost just 5 games in regulation so far, and have already clinched a play-off spot. They have a +99 GD and have won their last consecutive 13 games.
They're a juggernaut, and one would expect a sort of Bruins-like halo effect to settle over most of their players. In short, there may be some inflating going on here.
- TJ Brodie
Has cooled somewhat after his red hot start, but is still putting up some decent numbers with 7 goals and 35 points through 42 games. Brodie ranks 4th on his club in terms of scoring and easily has the highest PPG rate of any defender on the Spirit. Certainly an intriguing mid-round pick.
- Mitch Wahl
Another guy that came hard out of the gate, Wahl has setttled down into a PPG pace since. He has already bested his goal total from last season, but is on pace to fall short of his career high 73 points. The good news is, He's currently third on the Chiefs in scoring and also leads the club in terms of goals and +/-.
- Mikael Backlund
After his mediocre run in Sweden, Backlund's foray into North American Junior hockey has gone well so far with 2 goals and 6 points in 6 games played. Given he's already played amongst men in his homeland and here with the Flames, I'd really like to see a strong finish from Backlund this year: a better than 1.00 PPG rate would improve my faltering expectations of him as a future offensive contributor at the NHL level I think.
- John Negrin
Negrin was recently traded from the mediocre Kootenay Ice to the slightly less mediocre Swift Current Broncos. Since then, he's gone 1-5-6 in six games, so it looks like the new surroundings may be treating him well. His 6 goals are easily a career high and he's on pace to manage about 60 points by the end of the RS (again, a career best). He is currently tied for 10th in terms of overall scoring amongst defenders in the WHL, although his PPG pace of 0.84 actually places him inside the top 7 blueliners.
Some good stuff all around. There isn't much on the farm, but it looks like some of the Junior guys are coming along nicely (and I didn't even bother to look at Keith Aulie). There isn't much bubbling under right now, but the farm team should experience a decent injection of skill in a year or two.
Friday, January 23, 2009
XMP3 Contest Update
Here are some of the trade predictions proffered by the commentariat so far -
Goalies:
Johan Hedberg, Manny Legace, Marc Denis, Andrew Raycroft, Olaf Kolzig, Ray Emery, Kevin Weekes, Craig Anderson
After Cumac got shelled, looks like there's lots of support for a veteran back-up.
Defensemen:
Jordan Leopold, Phillipe Boucher, Dan Hamhuis, Jay Bouwmeester
Interesting choices. Seeing Leopold here again would be great.
Forwards:
Scottie Upshall, Doug Weight, David Booth (this would rule), Colby Armstrong, Marty Reasoner, Andy McDonald, Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Dany Heatley (!) and Erik Christensen
From the mundane to the spectacular.
Lots of interesting choices here. The spread is a wide one, so someone is bound to win. Feel free to guess if you haven't already since the contest is still live. Also, let me know if I've missed anyone...
Goalies:
Johan Hedberg, Manny Legace, Marc Denis, Andrew Raycroft, Olaf Kolzig, Ray Emery, Kevin Weekes, Craig Anderson
After Cumac got shelled, looks like there's lots of support for a veteran back-up.
Defensemen:
Jordan Leopold, Phillipe Boucher, Dan Hamhuis, Jay Bouwmeester
Interesting choices. Seeing Leopold here again would be great.
Forwards:
Scottie Upshall, Doug Weight, David Booth (this would rule), Colby Armstrong, Marty Reasoner, Andy McDonald, Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Dany Heatley (!) and Erik Christensen
From the mundane to the spectacular.
Lots of interesting choices here. The spread is a wide one, so someone is bound to win. Feel free to guess if you haven't already since the contest is still live. Also, let me know if I've missed anyone...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Salary cap - from boon to burden
More Flames-centric blogging coming in the near future.
For now, I wanted to share this interesting article from the Baseball Prospectus dubbed Let Freedom Reign. In it, Shawn Hoffman argues that the hard cap favored by the NHL can actually do damage to small market teams - and the league as a whole:
Small-market teams love salary caps. Or rather, they think they do. At least on paper, caps stop teams in New York, Boston, and Chicago from oligopolizing the free-agent market, and should therefore help level the economic playing field. And, to a certain extent, they do; a small-market team in a capped league is more likely to acquire or retain top-tier talent. But there's a catch. That same small-market team will need to win, and keep winning, just to stay financially viable.
...
The NHL, which also has a hard cap, does very little revenue sharing, partly thanks to an overly convoluted system. On a league-wide level, the results have been very positive; the NHL has had record revenues every year since its lockout, and Gary Bettman has been very positive about this season as well. But the NHL is a great example of why caps and capitalism don't mix: as the league grows, it ends up leaving teams behind. Small-market clubs like the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Nashville Predators are forced to spend almost two-thirds of their revenue on player payroll. And the Phoenix Coyotes, after years of hemorrhaging money, are on the verge of going bankrupt.
Take a look if the economics of sport interest you at all.
For now, I wanted to share this interesting article from the Baseball Prospectus dubbed Let Freedom Reign. In it, Shawn Hoffman argues that the hard cap favored by the NHL can actually do damage to small market teams - and the league as a whole:
Small-market teams love salary caps. Or rather, they think they do. At least on paper, caps stop teams in New York, Boston, and Chicago from oligopolizing the free-agent market, and should therefore help level the economic playing field. And, to a certain extent, they do; a small-market team in a capped league is more likely to acquire or retain top-tier talent. But there's a catch. That same small-market team will need to win, and keep winning, just to stay financially viable.
...
The NHL, which also has a hard cap, does very little revenue sharing, partly thanks to an overly convoluted system. On a league-wide level, the results have been very positive; the NHL has had record revenues every year since its lockout, and Gary Bettman has been very positive about this season as well. But the NHL is a great example of why caps and capitalism don't mix: as the league grows, it ends up leaving teams behind. Small-market clubs like the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Nashville Predators are forced to spend almost two-thirds of their revenue on player payroll. And the Phoenix Coyotes, after years of hemorrhaging money, are on the verge of going bankrupt.
Take a look if the economics of sport interest you at all.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Gamesday - underrated BJ's
There's been a bit of a buzz about the Blue Jackets in this corner of the web for awhile now. I wrote about them back in November when I noticed that their underlying numbers didn't match their results:
The club is +73 by the corsi metric thus far, with guys like Huselius (+47) and Nash (+33) leading the way. Only 4 guys are in the red: Jan Hejda, Mike Commodore (tough match-ups?), Andrew Murray and Jared Boll (4th line muckers).
It looks to me like Columbus has been pretty unlucky so far. Leclaire has been mediocre/injured, with Fredrick Norrena doing his best Raycroft impression. Not a single one of Columbus' goalies has a SV% above .900 right now, which strikes me as something that can't possibly continue on a Hitchcock coached team.
In addition, the shooting percentages with guys like Nash and Juice on the ice are ridiculously low (5.4% and 7.3%). Nash himself is shooting at just 9.8%, around 4% below his career average, smaller even his rookie rate of 11.0% (his worst to date).
Since then, the Jackets have promoted the new Calder front runner Steve Mason, Nash and Huselius have turned things around and Howson has added Jason Williams for a song. They aren't a Stanley Cup favorite by any means - they're still in tough to make the dance at all - but they've made enough of an impression to catch the attention of both Matt and Lowetide as well.
This is all a prelude to me saying: the Flames can't take this team lightly this evening, despite their 10th place ranking in the WC. They have an excellent coach, an emerging superstar in Nash and, suddenly, very capable goaltending. They tend to out-shoot their opponents at ES and would probably be skating with the Anaheim's of the world if not for 6 weeks of terrible netminding a PP ranked last in the league.
On the Flames front, apparently Bert is in and Vandermeer is out (phew). That's a pretty big vote of confidence for Adam Pardy (assuming it actually happens this way, of course)...also, it might actually be good to see Bert in the line-up tonight, if only because we wont have to watch #4 trying to be a top 6 winger anymore.
Prediction - Flames take this one in overtime, 2-1. Langkow and Moss for Calgary. Huselius (!) for Columbus.
Edit - Apparently, Juice might be out for tonights game (again!). So, let's say...Malholtra scores instead.
Go Flames.
The club is +73 by the corsi metric thus far, with guys like Huselius (+47) and Nash (+33) leading the way. Only 4 guys are in the red: Jan Hejda, Mike Commodore (tough match-ups?), Andrew Murray and Jared Boll (4th line muckers).
It looks to me like Columbus has been pretty unlucky so far. Leclaire has been mediocre/injured, with Fredrick Norrena doing his best Raycroft impression. Not a single one of Columbus' goalies has a SV% above .900 right now, which strikes me as something that can't possibly continue on a Hitchcock coached team.
In addition, the shooting percentages with guys like Nash and Juice on the ice are ridiculously low (5.4% and 7.3%). Nash himself is shooting at just 9.8%, around 4% below his career average, smaller even his rookie rate of 11.0% (his worst to date).
Since then, the Jackets have promoted the new Calder front runner Steve Mason, Nash and Huselius have turned things around and Howson has added Jason Williams for a song. They aren't a Stanley Cup favorite by any means - they're still in tough to make the dance at all - but they've made enough of an impression to catch the attention of both Matt and Lowetide as well.
This is all a prelude to me saying: the Flames can't take this team lightly this evening, despite their 10th place ranking in the WC. They have an excellent coach, an emerging superstar in Nash and, suddenly, very capable goaltending. They tend to out-shoot their opponents at ES and would probably be skating with the Anaheim's of the world if not for 6 weeks of terrible netminding a PP ranked last in the league.
On the Flames front, apparently Bert is in and Vandermeer is out (phew). That's a pretty big vote of confidence for Adam Pardy (assuming it actually happens this way, of course)...also, it might actually be good to see Bert in the line-up tonight, if only because we wont have to watch #4 trying to be a top 6 winger anymore.
Prediction - Flames take this one in overtime, 2-1. Langkow and Moss for Calgary. Huselius (!) for Columbus.
Edit - Apparently, Juice might be out for tonights game (again!). So, let's say...Malholtra scores instead.
Go Flames.
XMP3 Contest - Predict Sutters next move
So I've settled on a "guess the trade!" competition to give away the XMP3 player and car install kit. I think that will ensure some decent involvement as well as yield some potentially interesting discussion material.
Rules:
1.) Guess a specific player that will be a Flame by the trade deadline. No need to guess the actual transaction (such as who/what the Flames will be giving up in return).
2.) If no one guesses the player in particular, entries will be graded on how "close" they were to the actual guy in question. Proximity will be determined by:
- First, position: center, winger, defenseman, goalie, etc.
- Second, position in the line-up: first line center, top six winger, bottom two defenseman, back-up goalie, etc.
- Third tie-breaker would be salary: the guess with the closest cap hit to the actual player wins it.
Is that clear?
3.) This applies to Sutter's next trade between now and the deadline. Meaning the contest is over after the first deal, even if Daz has a couple up his sleeve. It, however, will not apply to a salary dump situation (ie: if Sutter trades Vandermeer for futures). A flesh and blood, NHL ready player has to be coming back in the swap.
4.) If someone has already guessed a player, that takes him out of the running: meaning, 4 people can't all guess Jay Bouwmeester. So get your guesses in early.
5.) Let's limit the entries here folks. There'll be no Eklund-style throwing stuff against a wall to see what sticks. Therefore, please sign in under some sort of name or alias to submit your guess in the comments. You can email me your guess if you want as well. Let's say a max of two guesses per entrant.
6.) The contest is valid up until the trade is made, whenever that will be.
Feel free to begin guessing in the comments to this post. I'll probably make a post detailing the various predictions in the near future.
Rules:
1.) Guess a specific player that will be a Flame by the trade deadline. No need to guess the actual transaction (such as who/what the Flames will be giving up in return).
2.) If no one guesses the player in particular, entries will be graded on how "close" they were to the actual guy in question. Proximity will be determined by:
- First, position: center, winger, defenseman, goalie, etc.
- Second, position in the line-up: first line center, top six winger, bottom two defenseman, back-up goalie, etc.
- Third tie-breaker would be salary: the guess with the closest cap hit to the actual player wins it.
Is that clear?
3.) This applies to Sutter's next trade between now and the deadline. Meaning the contest is over after the first deal, even if Daz has a couple up his sleeve. It, however, will not apply to a salary dump situation (ie: if Sutter trades Vandermeer for futures). A flesh and blood, NHL ready player has to be coming back in the swap.
4.) If someone has already guessed a player, that takes him out of the running: meaning, 4 people can't all guess Jay Bouwmeester. So get your guesses in early.
5.) Let's limit the entries here folks. There'll be no Eklund-style throwing stuff against a wall to see what sticks. Therefore, please sign in under some sort of name or alias to submit your guess in the comments. You can email me your guess if you want as well. Let's say a max of two guesses per entrant.
6.) The contest is valid up until the trade is made, whenever that will be.
Feel free to begin guessing in the comments to this post. I'll probably make a post detailing the various predictions in the near future.
Monday, January 19, 2009
FHF - where the snark and new fangled gadgetry is free
I have a Pioneer XMP3 radio and car install kit to give away.
The back story behind my good fortune is too long and convoluted to share: just know that everything in question is basically brand new and operable.
Im wrestling with how to decide on the recipient, however: comment contest? Guest post? Keenan Photoshop competition?
Im leaning towards one of the latter two.
Suggestions?
Celebrating the unheralded
There's going to be some grumbling and finger pointing after the unpleasant weekend to be sure - Im guessing a lot of fans aren't going to be so forgiving of Iginla's continued mediocrity going forward - but I'm going to go the opposite route, especially since I've already talked about stuff like goaltending and Jarome's struggles.
Specifically, I'd like to highlight the recent play of Matthew Lombardi, because I think he's slipping beneath the radar a bit. The guy has six points in his last 5 games and has only been shut out twice this month. Although the team as a whole was underwhelming this weekend, Lombo fired a combined 12 shots on net, garnered 3 points and was +4. With his work in January, I think Lombardi has put some distance between him and Boyd on the depth chart, although the comparison may be an unfair one given the latter's ice time/teammates.
Also, guess who is the best PKer on the team is currently? Lombardi has had just two goals scored on him this season while down a man. That's inhumanly good - pointing to a lot of good fortune no doubt - but there's something to be said about his speed and tenacity at 5on4.
Lombardi had a tough beginning to the year: he was around for the terrible start, then he got hurt. His underlying numbers took a beating and languished with the Prust's of the world for awhile. In fact, even I started to sour on him.
However, since Keenan started bouncing him between the first and third lines, his ES figures have recovered nicely. He's over 2 ESP/60 (2.29), has a healthy corsi rate (+11.6), and is outscoring the bad guys (+7).
One thing to keep in mind as well is that Lombardi's SH% is ghastly - a career worst 5.1%. His average was around 10% prior to this season, so I wouldn't consider his relatively disappointing 4 goals to be indicative of his ability.
Of course, Lombardi's quality of linemates has gone way up this season relative to last. Remember the ill-fated kid line experiment? *shudder* Whether centering Iginla and Cammalleri or Glencross and Moss, Lombo is obviously in much better company these days. I speculated in the off-season that a lot of his terrible results from 07/08 had to do with his surroundings and that's the way it seems to be playing out so far.
Not that he's convinced me he'll ever be a consistent 20 goal/60 point player now or in the future; I think his ceiling is a versatile utility center that can move up and down the line-up, depending on need. He's never going to drive results like, say, a Daymond Langkow, but he can likely be a complement to already capable players. Which is actually a nice piece to have in the line-up.
Cue the "should we trade Lombardi for a top 6 player" debate all over again.
Specifically, I'd like to highlight the recent play of Matthew Lombardi, because I think he's slipping beneath the radar a bit. The guy has six points in his last 5 games and has only been shut out twice this month. Although the team as a whole was underwhelming this weekend, Lombo fired a combined 12 shots on net, garnered 3 points and was +4. With his work in January, I think Lombardi has put some distance between him and Boyd on the depth chart, although the comparison may be an unfair one given the latter's ice time/teammates.
Also, guess who is the best PKer on the team is currently? Lombardi has had just two goals scored on him this season while down a man. That's inhumanly good - pointing to a lot of good fortune no doubt - but there's something to be said about his speed and tenacity at 5on4.
Lombardi had a tough beginning to the year: he was around for the terrible start, then he got hurt. His underlying numbers took a beating and languished with the Prust's of the world for awhile. In fact, even I started to sour on him.
However, since Keenan started bouncing him between the first and third lines, his ES figures have recovered nicely. He's over 2 ESP/60 (2.29), has a healthy corsi rate (+11.6), and is outscoring the bad guys (+7).
One thing to keep in mind as well is that Lombardi's SH% is ghastly - a career worst 5.1%. His average was around 10% prior to this season, so I wouldn't consider his relatively disappointing 4 goals to be indicative of his ability.
Of course, Lombardi's quality of linemates has gone way up this season relative to last. Remember the ill-fated kid line experiment? *shudder* Whether centering Iginla and Cammalleri or Glencross and Moss, Lombo is obviously in much better company these days. I speculated in the off-season that a lot of his terrible results from 07/08 had to do with his surroundings and that's the way it seems to be playing out so far.
Not that he's convinced me he'll ever be a consistent 20 goal/60 point player now or in the future; I think his ceiling is a versatile utility center that can move up and down the line-up, depending on need. He's never going to drive results like, say, a Daymond Langkow, but he can likely be a complement to already capable players. Which is actually a nice piece to have in the line-up.
Cue the "should we trade Lombardi for a top 6 player" debate all over again.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Gameday - Flames @ Avs
I was going to talk about goaltending in light of some of the stuff that's going on in the league (Garon/Sabourin/Dubie swap, etc) and Kippers sub-par performance last night, but Matt goes after it first.
I would like to add, however, were I one of the chosen media members with access, the first question I'd ask Keenan is "do you honestly think this is the best method to manage Kiprusoff's starts?" and/or to follow-up "what exactly moderates your decisions when it comes to the starter?"...because I can't make heads or tails of that situation this year.
Calgary's recent schedule offered ample opportunity to get CuMac in the net: two games against the worst in the respective divisions recently as well as a back-to-back featuring the Coyotes and the even less impressive Colorado Avalanche. Hell, the team is well situated in the standings, meaning there's no real need to pursue wins by playing Kipper into the ground.
As it is, Im sure we'll see Kiprusoff again tonight, despite the B2B, the lesser opponent and recent abysmal performance. If this continues much longer, one suspects that Curtis will start dressing up a dummy in goalie equipment to sit in his stead at the end of the bench.
Anyways, onto the Avs. If you haven't been paying attention, Colorado has been getting some mileage out of Wolski/Smyth/Hejduk since Stastny went down, but the rest of the line-up is underwhelming to say the least. Arnason and Svatos are the next best weapons on the roster and goaltending has been - predictably - meh. Of course, they do have the best coach in the NW division...so at least they got that going for them.
Prediction - Flames 3, Avs 2. Iginla (has to happen sometimes, right?), Bourque and Regehr for Calgary. Wolski and Leopold for Colorado.
I would like to add, however, were I one of the chosen media members with access, the first question I'd ask Keenan is "do you honestly think this is the best method to manage Kiprusoff's starts?" and/or to follow-up "what exactly moderates your decisions when it comes to the starter?"...because I can't make heads or tails of that situation this year.
Calgary's recent schedule offered ample opportunity to get CuMac in the net: two games against the worst in the respective divisions recently as well as a back-to-back featuring the Coyotes and the even less impressive Colorado Avalanche. Hell, the team is well situated in the standings, meaning there's no real need to pursue wins by playing Kipper into the ground.
As it is, Im sure we'll see Kiprusoff again tonight, despite the B2B, the lesser opponent and recent abysmal performance. If this continues much longer, one suspects that Curtis will start dressing up a dummy in goalie equipment to sit in his stead at the end of the bench.
Anyways, onto the Avs. If you haven't been paying attention, Colorado has been getting some mileage out of Wolski/Smyth/Hejduk since Stastny went down, but the rest of the line-up is underwhelming to say the least. Arnason and Svatos are the next best weapons on the roster and goaltending has been - predictably - meh. Of course, they do have the best coach in the NW division...so at least they got that going for them.
Prediction - Flames 3, Avs 2. Iginla (has to happen sometimes, right?), Bourque and Regehr for Calgary. Wolski and Leopold for Colorado.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Gameday - Flames @ Phoenix
For the first time in a recent memory, there aren't any pressing concerns going into a game mid-season. The lead on the Canucks for the NW div crown is sizable; 3rd in conference is well in hand. The only goal I can think of is: "lets keep this going"! It would be nice if Jarome could turn things around this evening too, but...
Prediction - Flames 4 Coyotes 1. Lombardi, Phaneuf, Bourque and Cammalleri for Calgary. Doan for Phoenix.
Go Flames.
Prediction - Flames 4 Coyotes 1. Lombardi, Phaneuf, Bourque and Cammalleri for Calgary. Doan for Phoenix.
Go Flames.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Surely you jest
There's been a complete lack of snark towards the MSM around here recently. For that I apologize. To slake the thirst of the bloodthirsy few who enjoy a good fisking now and then, I present this abomination from nhl.com.
It's some sort of mid-season grading article on the NW division. In it, Roger Philips makes a number of baffling claims that makes one wonder if he watches the teams he's talking about. Or their stats. Or hockey at all for that matter.
Player of the First Half: Jarome Iginla, Calgary -- This probably should come as no surprise.
Now in his 12th season with the Flames, Iginla continues to be one of the most complete and durable players in the game...
Last year, Iginla scored 50 goals for the first time in his career. This year, he's a bit off that pace, but his assists are up, and most importantly, the Flames have taken control of the Northwest Division.
That's some quality fact checking right there.
Iginla is way off his ES and PP rates from last season and his plus/minus has taken a huge dive. He's been pretty much ineffective for the most of January. I wouldn't even call him the "player of the first half" for the Flames let alone for the NW Division.
I also like how the author conflates the teams success with Iginla's. The Flames are winning therefore Iginla is doing well. This is where the "leadership" myth comes from: if your team does well, you're obviously a great Captain. Not...then not.
Oddly enough, however, this is probably the most defensible choice the author of this article makes.
Coach of the First Half: Tony Granato, Colorado -- Granato, in his second stint as the Avalanche's coach, deserves a world of credit. Despite major injuries to Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny, his team remains in the mix for a postseason berth.
Right now, as they wait for their two leaders to return, they are winning enough games to give themselves a shot.
Granato?? REALLY? Yes the Avs have dealt with some injury issues...but so have the Canucks (Luongo), Wild (Nolan, Gaborik) and...yes...the Oilers (Horcoff, Hemsky). Colorado is currently 11th in the conference, ahead of precisely NONE of the other NW teams. They have a GD of -11 and their special teams languish in the bottom third of the league. But, yeah...his team is winning enough to "keep them in it". Oh, and he's getting "grit" out of them.
Wow.
Rookie of the First Half: Adam Pardy, Calgary -- This has not exactly been the Year of the Rookie in the Northwest Division. There is no first-year player putting up gaudy statistics here.
Alright, we'll let this one slide. There's no real noteworthy rookies in the NW this year. In fact, I would have excluded this section altogether were it my piece.
Surprise of the First Half: Kyle Wellwood, Vancouver -- It would have been impossible to predict at the start of the season that center Kyle Wellwood would be the Canucks' second-leading goal scorer.
Yup, a recent healthy scratch with all of 19 points in 40 games is the big surprise. Not Rene Bourque's 15 ES goals and team leading +/-. Not Miiko Koivu's giant step forward. Not Andrew Raycroft challenging for the starters role in COL. It's Wellwoods illusory effectiveness (built entirely on an unsustainable SH%).
What a train-wreck. Someone got PAID to produce this folks.
It's some sort of mid-season grading article on the NW division. In it, Roger Philips makes a number of baffling claims that makes one wonder if he watches the teams he's talking about. Or their stats. Or hockey at all for that matter.
Player of the First Half: Jarome Iginla, Calgary -- This probably should come as no surprise.
Now in his 12th season with the Flames, Iginla continues to be one of the most complete and durable players in the game...
Last year, Iginla scored 50 goals for the first time in his career. This year, he's a bit off that pace, but his assists are up, and most importantly, the Flames have taken control of the Northwest Division.
That's some quality fact checking right there.
Iginla is way off his ES and PP rates from last season and his plus/minus has taken a huge dive. He's been pretty much ineffective for the most of January. I wouldn't even call him the "player of the first half" for the Flames let alone for the NW Division.
I also like how the author conflates the teams success with Iginla's. The Flames are winning therefore Iginla is doing well. This is where the "leadership" myth comes from: if your team does well, you're obviously a great Captain. Not...then not.
Oddly enough, however, this is probably the most defensible choice the author of this article makes.
Coach of the First Half: Tony Granato, Colorado -- Granato, in his second stint as the Avalanche's coach, deserves a world of credit. Despite major injuries to Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny, his team remains in the mix for a postseason berth.
Right now, as they wait for their two leaders to return, they are winning enough games to give themselves a shot.
Granato?? REALLY? Yes the Avs have dealt with some injury issues...but so have the Canucks (Luongo), Wild (Nolan, Gaborik) and...yes...the Oilers (Horcoff, Hemsky). Colorado is currently 11th in the conference, ahead of precisely NONE of the other NW teams. They have a GD of -11 and their special teams languish in the bottom third of the league. But, yeah...his team is winning enough to "keep them in it". Oh, and he's getting "grit" out of them.
Wow.
Rookie of the First Half: Adam Pardy, Calgary -- This has not exactly been the Year of the Rookie in the Northwest Division. There is no first-year player putting up gaudy statistics here.
Alright, we'll let this one slide. There's no real noteworthy rookies in the NW this year. In fact, I would have excluded this section altogether were it my piece.
Surprise of the First Half: Kyle Wellwood, Vancouver -- It would have been impossible to predict at the start of the season that center Kyle Wellwood would be the Canucks' second-leading goal scorer.
Yup, a recent healthy scratch with all of 19 points in 40 games is the big surprise. Not Rene Bourque's 15 ES goals and team leading +/-. Not Miiko Koivu's giant step forward. Not Andrew Raycroft challenging for the starters role in COL. It's Wellwoods illusory effectiveness (built entirely on an unsustainable SH%).
What a train-wreck. Someone got PAID to produce this folks.
Raising Awareness
Just wanted to share this article (H/T Illegal Curve) from Ray Ratto of the San Fransico Chronicle. It's filled with all sorts of complimentary things about the Flames after last nights victory, which is notable coming from the (figurative) mouth of the enemy.
The Flames are 18-5-3 since their hesitant start, and they showed San Jose and the rest of the conference that the dream conference final between the Sharks and Red Wings goes through Calgary, and not easily.
...
Calgary's emergence has broadened the West from the fait accompli that would be a Detroit-San Jose final, because the rest of the conference is either too young (Chicago, Phoenix), too old (Anaheim, Vancouver), two one-dimensional (Minnesota, Columbus) or no-dimensional (Edmonton, Nashville, Colorado, Dallas, Los Angeles and St. Louis) to figure into the debate.
...
San Jose would take any of those rather than a debilitating second-round series with the new Flames; indeed, the team that draws Calgary has a far smaller chance of reaching the Finals, making the race to win the top seed more vital than usual.
...
Thursday's game elevated the Flames into the greater debate...They may not be strong enough to match the Sharks' top line of Thornton, Devin Setoguchi and Patrick Marleau, but are close enough everywhere else that ... well, put it this way: If San Jose wants to face Detroit in the conference final to end all conference finals, the best way to do so is to avoid Calgary in the Round of Death.
It feels wonderful to be feared again.
The Flames are 18-5-3 since their hesitant start, and they showed San Jose and the rest of the conference that the dream conference final between the Sharks and Red Wings goes through Calgary, and not easily.
...
Calgary's emergence has broadened the West from the fait accompli that would be a Detroit-San Jose final, because the rest of the conference is either too young (Chicago, Phoenix), too old (Anaheim, Vancouver), two one-dimensional (Minnesota, Columbus) or no-dimensional (Edmonton, Nashville, Colorado, Dallas, Los Angeles and St. Louis) to figure into the debate.
...
San Jose would take any of those rather than a debilitating second-round series with the new Flames; indeed, the team that draws Calgary has a far smaller chance of reaching the Finals, making the race to win the top seed more vital than usual.
...
Thursday's game elevated the Flames into the greater debate...They may not be strong enough to match the Sharks' top line of Thornton, Devin Setoguchi and Patrick Marleau, but are close enough everywhere else that ... well, put it this way: If San Jose wants to face Detroit in the conference final to end all conference finals, the best way to do so is to avoid Calgary in the Round of Death.
It feels wonderful to be feared again.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Gameday: Flames in San Jose
Calgary is the hottest team in the league over the last 10 games, with an 8-1-1 record. On the other hand, San Jose hasn't lost in regulation at the Shark tank this year. Not once. Yikes.
It's unlikely the Sharks will be as complacent as they seemed in Calgary - there will be no 3 goal lead first period for the Flames this evening.
Im interested to see how the match-ups will proceed tonight. San Jose has Torrey Mitchell back, likely bumping Joe Pavelski up to the second line. Matt wrote about Pavelski here, explaining that he's been deployed against tough competition this year - and done well besides. While Keenan went Power v Power last game, throwing out Iginla against Thornton, it wouldn't surprise me to see McLellan send Pavelski out against Jaromes line instead (again, as Matt notes), saving the softer match-ups for Marleau/Thornton/Setoguchi.
Bert remains injured (NOOOOOOOO!), so Vandermeer remains on the 4th line. Boyd filled in on Langkow's unit only intermittenly last game, with Lombardi sometimes subbing in (when he wasn't centering the Glencross line or the Iginla line). I would expect Conroy to spend most of the night on the first unit (Keenan is a little more conservative on the road against good teams when it comes to flipping the pivot on the first line), so watch for Lombo and Boyd to take turns on the second and third units. Also, I would anticipate seeing a lot less of the Nystrom trio than we've become accustomed to: Jimmy V played all of 5 minutes against the Blues and still ended up a -1. Against a far superior Sharks team and on the road, he likely becomes an even more glaring liability (when combined with the likes of Nystrom and Roy. That's no slight to the latter two players, who haven't played too badly; just a recognition that Roy+Nystrom+Vandermeer is no great sum).
As good as the Flames have been, a win tonight would be shocking. San Jose is the best team in the league in general and far and away the best team at home in particular. It'll take a resurgent Jarome Iginla to get us through this one (HINT HINT Iggy).
Prediction - Flames do the seemingly impossible and win 3-2. Iginla (2) and Giordano for Calgary. Marleau and Goc for San Jose.
Go Flames.
It's unlikely the Sharks will be as complacent as they seemed in Calgary - there will be no 3 goal lead first period for the Flames this evening.
Im interested to see how the match-ups will proceed tonight. San Jose has Torrey Mitchell back, likely bumping Joe Pavelski up to the second line. Matt wrote about Pavelski here, explaining that he's been deployed against tough competition this year - and done well besides. While Keenan went Power v Power last game, throwing out Iginla against Thornton, it wouldn't surprise me to see McLellan send Pavelski out against Jaromes line instead (again, as Matt notes), saving the softer match-ups for Marleau/Thornton/Setoguchi.
Bert remains injured (NOOOOOOOO!), so Vandermeer remains on the 4th line. Boyd filled in on Langkow's unit only intermittenly last game, with Lombardi sometimes subbing in (when he wasn't centering the Glencross line or the Iginla line). I would expect Conroy to spend most of the night on the first unit (Keenan is a little more conservative on the road against good teams when it comes to flipping the pivot on the first line), so watch for Lombo and Boyd to take turns on the second and third units. Also, I would anticipate seeing a lot less of the Nystrom trio than we've become accustomed to: Jimmy V played all of 5 minutes against the Blues and still ended up a -1. Against a far superior Sharks team and on the road, he likely becomes an even more glaring liability (when combined with the likes of Nystrom and Roy. That's no slight to the latter two players, who haven't played too badly; just a recognition that Roy+Nystrom+Vandermeer is no great sum).
As good as the Flames have been, a win tonight would be shocking. San Jose is the best team in the league in general and far and away the best team at home in particular. It'll take a resurgent Jarome Iginla to get us through this one (HINT HINT Iggy).
Prediction - Flames do the seemingly impossible and win 3-2. Iginla (2) and Giordano for Calgary. Marleau and Goc for San Jose.
Go Flames.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Plugging the gap
Even if Iginla's current struggles are wholly idiosyncratic and have little to do with the rotating #1 C assignment, I still think the Flames primary weak spot is the lack of one more top 6-forward type. The bottom 6 are solidified and effective - even with two of them on the sidelines currently. Calgary is 7 or 8 defensemen deep with the emergence of Pardy as a viable NHL player. A step up from Conroy /Lombardi between Iginla and Cammalleri at ES seems to be the only place to go in terms of markedly improving the club.
Options are extremely limited, however, for two reasons:
1.) The Flames cap position. Calgary was rubbing up against the ceiling at the start of the year and there's been some call-ups and such from the AHL during the first half of the season. I'd be astonished if the org had any sort of room under the cap at all.
Meaning, to make a deal, Sutter will likely have to dump some salary. Either separately (Vandermeer for a draft pick?) or in the exchange that lands the player in question (Two for one swap).
While those conditions dont prohibit a trade, they do make one more difficult to consummate. Especially with fringe clubs like Tampa Bay and Phoenix bleeding cash and likely looking to eject dollars themselves - there'll be no dumping of contracts on the likes of them.
This also means the Flames can't be looking for anyone with significant dollars left on his deal. Scott Gomez, Vincent Lecavalier, Danny Briere and Chris Drury are out.
2.) The pending UFA center rental market is a thin one, especially since contenders like Montreal will likely be holding on to their aging depth players for the play-offs (think: Robert Lang). Only marginal teams on the outside of the play-off picture will be moving centers of any value.
That limits the field severely. Let's say TBL, LAK, NYI, OTT, TOR, STL and ATL are the teams already looking to next year when the end of February rolls around. That yields this list of possibles:
- Nik Antropov (2.050M)
- Jason Williams (2.2M)
- Doug Weight (4.3M)
- Mike Comrie (4M)
- Andy McDonald (3.33M)
- Keith Tkachuk (4M)
- Antoine Vermette (2.763M - not a pending UFA, but he might be available due to his horrendous season).
The links take you to each guys advanced stats (some are the same link and so weren't duplicated). See anyone that is a real step up from the current options? I don't, really...except for maybe Nik Antropov, who has the best batch of ES numbers of the bunch (ESP, corsi). His +/- sucks, but the goaltending in TOR this season has been questionable at best, so it's probably not indicative of anything.
Of course, any trade speculation involving a center coming to Calgary involves Matthew Lombardi going the other way. He looks to be the odd man out, Im afraid: Langkow has proven indispensable, Conroy is decent value for the dollars and signed for one more year, Boyd is rapidly improving and poised to pass Lombo on the depth chart and the org clearly has a woody for Mikael Backlund. There's also Wayne Primeau about to return from injury and Jamie Lundmark leading the Flames in scoring on the farm. The club is literally choking on centers, especially the "third line or below" type.
The resulting question is: does Lombo have enough value as a trade piece to land a Nik Antropov type? And, should the Flames deal a good value contract to "go for it" with a rental?
Im not so sure either way right now. Thoughts?
Options are extremely limited, however, for two reasons:
1.) The Flames cap position. Calgary was rubbing up against the ceiling at the start of the year and there's been some call-ups and such from the AHL during the first half of the season. I'd be astonished if the org had any sort of room under the cap at all.
Meaning, to make a deal, Sutter will likely have to dump some salary. Either separately (Vandermeer for a draft pick?) or in the exchange that lands the player in question (Two for one swap).
While those conditions dont prohibit a trade, they do make one more difficult to consummate. Especially with fringe clubs like Tampa Bay and Phoenix bleeding cash and likely looking to eject dollars themselves - there'll be no dumping of contracts on the likes of them.
This also means the Flames can't be looking for anyone with significant dollars left on his deal. Scott Gomez, Vincent Lecavalier, Danny Briere and Chris Drury are out.
2.) The pending UFA center rental market is a thin one, especially since contenders like Montreal will likely be holding on to their aging depth players for the play-offs (think: Robert Lang). Only marginal teams on the outside of the play-off picture will be moving centers of any value.
That limits the field severely. Let's say TBL, LAK, NYI, OTT, TOR, STL and ATL are the teams already looking to next year when the end of February rolls around. That yields this list of possibles:
- Nik Antropov (2.050M)
- Jason Williams (2.2M)
- Doug Weight (4.3M)
- Mike Comrie (4M)
- Andy McDonald (3.33M)
- Keith Tkachuk (4M)
- Antoine Vermette (2.763M - not a pending UFA, but he might be available due to his horrendous season).
The links take you to each guys advanced stats (some are the same link and so weren't duplicated). See anyone that is a real step up from the current options? I don't, really...except for maybe Nik Antropov, who has the best batch of ES numbers of the bunch (ESP, corsi). His +/- sucks, but the goaltending in TOR this season has been questionable at best, so it's probably not indicative of anything.
Of course, any trade speculation involving a center coming to Calgary involves Matthew Lombardi going the other way. He looks to be the odd man out, Im afraid: Langkow has proven indispensable, Conroy is decent value for the dollars and signed for one more year, Boyd is rapidly improving and poised to pass Lombo on the depth chart and the org clearly has a woody for Mikael Backlund. There's also Wayne Primeau about to return from injury and Jamie Lundmark leading the Flames in scoring on the farm. The club is literally choking on centers, especially the "third line or below" type.
The resulting question is: does Lombo have enough value as a trade piece to land a Nik Antropov type? And, should the Flames deal a good value contract to "go for it" with a rental?
Im not so sure either way right now. Thoughts?
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Gameday - Blues @ Flames
Aside from the Sharks and Hawks, it's been a pretty soft sched for the boys recently. Back-to-back worst in the conference - as illustration - with St. Louis coming in on the heels of the woeful Islanders.
Vandermeer's in and Bert's out this evening. Good news on two fronts there: none of the superior options on the back-end are bumped for the returning Jimmy-V while Boyd will (probably) skate with Langkow and Bourque for a change. Hell, maybe we'll actually see CuMac in net as well - although Im sure the drive to play Kipper into the ground will no doubt continue unabated...
Prediction - Flames 4, Blues 3. Iginla (3) and Boyd for Calgary. Berglund, Boyes and Perron for St. Louis.
Go Flames!
Vandermeer's in and Bert's out this evening. Good news on two fronts there: none of the superior options on the back-end are bumped for the returning Jimmy-V while Boyd will (probably) skate with Langkow and Bourque for a change. Hell, maybe we'll actually see CuMac in net as well - although Im sure the drive to play Kipper into the ground will no doubt continue unabated...
Prediction - Flames 4, Blues 3. Iginla (3) and Boyd for Calgary. Berglund, Boyes and Perron for St. Louis.
Go Flames!
Match-ups and possession over the last 5 games
Well, I've gone over the Flames schedule and collected some data from the last five game sample. Figured I'd do a bit of a data dump for those twisted few souls that are actually interested in this and share my own few thoughts on the subject as well.
December 31 6-3 win over Edmoton
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy - Iginla @ Penner - Horcoff - Reddox
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Cole - Gagner - Nilsson
Glencross - Lombardi - Moss @ Moreau - Cogliano - Brule
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Stortini - Brodziak - Strudwick
Looks like Keenan was satisfied with simply going line for line against MacTavish on New Years eve. Reggie and Aucoin played behind Iginla, meaning Keenan identified the Horcoff line as the biggest threat, essentially going power v. power.
Here's the games corsi ratings, which gives an idea who was winning the possession battle.
Flames were a +10 on the evening. Guys in the red included Bourque (-1), Nystrom (-1), Langkow (-1), Lombardi (-2), Roy (-3) and Pardy (-3). The most curious discrepancy is the difference between Lombo and Glencross (+10), since the former spent nearly 7 of his 11 ES minutes with the latter. A shift or two with Jarome and Cammalleri must have gone very wrong to plunge Lombo underwater like that.
It's somewhat surprising to me that Langkow et al would lose the possession battle to Gagner et al, although, as I remember it, the Gagner line was easily the best one on the night for the Oilers AND that ended up being a dreadful evening for the Flames second line in general (another -3 for big Bert!). On the other hand, Glencross and Moss beat up on the Moreau line while Iginla just edged out Horcoff (which, in my eyes, is an indictment of Iginla's play. fer Chrissakes, Horcoff was playing with Penner and Liam Reddox. Horcoff is a decent player, but Iggy should be beating that lines head in by himself).
Jan 3 win over Nashville
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy/Lombardi - Iginla @ Erat - Arnott - Pihlstrom
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Tootoo - Peverly - Pihlstrom
Glencross - Lombardi/Conroy - Moss @ Dumont - Arnott - Tootoo
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Erat - Arnott - Ward
Boy oh boy, what a mess. It's nearly impossible to track match-ups by the ice time here, because it looks like the troll spent the evening mixing and matching his players while chasing extremely favorable assignments for his big boys (Arnott vs. 3rd and 4th lines) with Keenan responding by bouncing Lombo and Conroy around. You'll notice Legwand doesn't show up, because I really had no idea where to slot him: he played about 8 minutes at ES - and his time was spread out against Lombardi, Moss, Bertuzzi, Bourque, Glencross and Langkow fairly evenly. So take the above with a pinch of salt on the NSH side.
This was a game I thought the Flames played poorly up until the latter half of the third. It's also one I thought Bertuzzi et al. looked terrible in and, lo and behold! They lost the possession battle again according to the corsi figures. Ironically, it was that line that won the game by scoring the tying and winning goals in the third. Good thing - otherwise, they're the goats.
All the other Flames forwards - aside from Boyd - did well for themselves amidst the match-up chaos, which is good since Trotz loves to try to get his big guys out against the "weaker sisters". Iginla was outscored, but he and Cammalleri basically got unlucky: they fired 7 shots on goal to their opponents 3.
On another note, the "d" match-ups were equally confusing from a Calgary perspective. To me, it looks like Keenan worried about getting Regehr out against Arnott and then, perhaps, let the face-off position (own zone, offensive zone) moderate d-movement from there.
January 4 5-2 loss against Chicago
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy/Lombardi - Iginla @ Havlat - Bolland - Ladd
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Byfuglien - Toews - Versteeg
Glencross - Conroy/Lombardi - Moss @ Eager - Brouwer - Sharp
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Fraser - Adams - Burish
A more straight forward evening, with Quenneville happy to run Havlat at Jarome and Toews at Langkow. This was a rare evening where the Flames were in the red in terms of corsi ratings, helped perhaps by the fact the Flames were on the second day of a B2B. That said, the only guys in the black were Glencross, Giordano, Conroy, Moss and Aucoin. Good thing Kane wasn't in the line-up.
Kind of interesting to look at Chicago's lines: notice the spread of noted offensive difference-makers (Toews, Havlat, Sharp) with a variety of less noted kids and such (Brouwer, Bolland, Versteeg, Eager). I guess the Hawks have a LOT of "kids and such", so they have to go somewhere. Still - I think there would be a very different configuration in the Windy City if Keenan were the coach.
What's also interesting is the fact that this is the 3rd straight game where guys I've lauded in this space recently (Langkow, Bourque) were underwater at ES in terms of possession (although they did outscore the bad guys). Hmm...
Jan 6 5-2 win over San Jose
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy - Iginla @ Cheechoo - Thornton - Michalek
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Clowe - Marleau - Steoguchi
Glencross - Lombardi - Moss @ Goc - Pavelski/Plihal - Grier
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Staubitz - Plihal/Goc - Semenov
The match-ups below the top 6 weren't at all straight forward. Pavelski actually jumped around the Sharks line-up a tad, while guys like Boyd, Staubitz and Semenov were basically sheltered as much as possible by their respective coaches. Roy and Nystrom, meanwhile, actually saw more of Cheechoo and Marleau than they did the other 4th liners.
Here are the corsi numbers. This was the "statement" win for Calgary and they didn't do it with bounces. The Flames were in the black at ES in terms of possession, with only Iginla (-1) and Conroy (-1) being underwater. Langkow and company got things going the right way against Marleau's line, handily out-chancing and outscoring them. Good news.
Jan 8 5-2 win over NYI
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy - Iginla @ Park
Bourque - Langkow - Lombardi/Boyd @ Tambellini - Guerin - Bailey
Glencross - Lombardi/Backlund - Moss @ Comeau - Comrie - Okposo
Nystrom - Boyd/Backlund - Roy @ Hunter - Park - Bergenheim
This was a weird night as well. Iginla et al. spent almost an equal amount of time against everyone from the Isles, the leader of which was Richard Park at about 4 minutes (just 30% of Jarome's near 13 minutes of ice). Tambellini, Jackman, Smith, Comeau, Bergenheim and Guerin all saw Jarome for about 3 minutes or so. Just a strangely even mix of opposition for the captain which is why I didn't really list anyone beside the #1 line in the match-ups. There were also guys like Jon Sim that were irreverent (2 minutes of ice) or inserted randomly throughout the line-up (Smith...who played with Jackman, Sim, Hunter and Park to varying degrees). If you were to ask me beforehand, I would have thought Hunter would be the guy to see Jarome the most (he strikes me as the best option to face the big guns on New York), so I dont know if Keenan was working the match-ups feverishly or the Isles coach just...yeah, I don't know. Hell, there wasn't even a dedicated defensive pair matched against Iginla: Streit/Witt spent about 5 minutes against the big line - the most of any duo - with Martinek and Campoli just behind them at 4 minutes.
The Langkow/Guerin match-up seemed slightly more regular as did the Comrie/Glencross pairing. The latter line beat up on their counter-parts (featuring a bored Bill Guerin and a scared teenager), while Glencross and co were actually underwater. Overall, the Flames had a +14 corsi rating with only Glencross, Moss, Boyd and the Regehr pairing (who spent most of the night against the Comeau trio) in the red.
Anyways, here's the total shot data from the 5 game sample we're talking about.
- As you can see, Boyd ended up being the only negative out of the bunch somehow. Part of that has to do with who he plays with and part of that has to do with how he's used.
The link takes you to the face-off data from the same sample of games. As you can see, Boyd is the only guy on the team besides Iginla, Roy, Nystrom and Conroy not to have more offensive than defensive zone draws. However, it also suggests to me that Keenan might actually be employing Boyd properly by sheltering him on the 4th line. Chokes me to say that, because I like Boyd, but it looks like the puck doesn't move in the right direction when he's on the ice. Maybe that would change if he was on the Langkow line with Bourque getting a ton more O-zone draws (rather than starting in the neutral zone with Roy and Nystrom all the time)...or, maybe, he would drag the other guys down.
- I've been on Jarome's case lately, but, as you can see, he's taken the most own zone draws on the team the last little while and the shooting percentage with him on the ice has been just ghastly 4.3% (!). That just isn't going to last, I dont care who Iginla's center is.
- It's been a fun ride, but the Bourque train is going to come to a screeching halt here...sooner rather than later. He hasn't been as nearly as dominant as I had thought at driving possession at ES (+12), he got a lot of offensive zone face-off love over the span in question (-18) and the SH% with him on the ice was absurd (20%). I still like the guy, but..."conditions have been favorable".
- Is Lombo ever going to catch a break? The SV% behind him through these five games was a team worst .875.
Overall, it looks like Keenan is mostly giving Jarome the toughest sledding, while saving the cherry stuff for Langkow's line. Iginla's actually done alright with that assignment, especially given his relatively lackluster centermen (Lombardi/Conroy). I would expect his on ice SH% to jump up at least to mean levels pretty soon, which will mean he's in line for a significant bump in his results, especially if he continues to drive possession. A more capable center for Jarome would make sense, I think, and I wonder if Langkow won't eventually land on the top line if Keenan decides to keep going power v. power. I also think we're going to get a swing in contributions, with Iginla's trio (whoever it is) suddenly driving the bus while Langkow and Bourque cool off.
Feel free to share any of you own observations. Lots of stuff to go through here and I probably only touched the surface of it.
December 31 6-3 win over Edmoton
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy - Iginla @ Penner - Horcoff - Reddox
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Cole - Gagner - Nilsson
Glencross - Lombardi - Moss @ Moreau - Cogliano - Brule
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Stortini - Brodziak - Strudwick
Looks like Keenan was satisfied with simply going line for line against MacTavish on New Years eve. Reggie and Aucoin played behind Iginla, meaning Keenan identified the Horcoff line as the biggest threat, essentially going power v. power.
Here's the games corsi ratings, which gives an idea who was winning the possession battle.
Flames were a +10 on the evening. Guys in the red included Bourque (-1), Nystrom (-1), Langkow (-1), Lombardi (-2), Roy (-3) and Pardy (-3). The most curious discrepancy is the difference between Lombo and Glencross (+10), since the former spent nearly 7 of his 11 ES minutes with the latter. A shift or two with Jarome and Cammalleri must have gone very wrong to plunge Lombo underwater like that.
It's somewhat surprising to me that Langkow et al would lose the possession battle to Gagner et al, although, as I remember it, the Gagner line was easily the best one on the night for the Oilers AND that ended up being a dreadful evening for the Flames second line in general (another -3 for big Bert!). On the other hand, Glencross and Moss beat up on the Moreau line while Iginla just edged out Horcoff (which, in my eyes, is an indictment of Iginla's play. fer Chrissakes, Horcoff was playing with Penner and Liam Reddox. Horcoff is a decent player, but Iggy should be beating that lines head in by himself).
Jan 3 win over Nashville
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy/Lombardi - Iginla @ Erat - Arnott - Pihlstrom
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Tootoo - Peverly - Pihlstrom
Glencross - Lombardi/Conroy - Moss @ Dumont - Arnott - Tootoo
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Erat - Arnott - Ward
Boy oh boy, what a mess. It's nearly impossible to track match-ups by the ice time here, because it looks like the troll spent the evening mixing and matching his players while chasing extremely favorable assignments for his big boys (Arnott vs. 3rd and 4th lines) with Keenan responding by bouncing Lombo and Conroy around. You'll notice Legwand doesn't show up, because I really had no idea where to slot him: he played about 8 minutes at ES - and his time was spread out against Lombardi, Moss, Bertuzzi, Bourque, Glencross and Langkow fairly evenly. So take the above with a pinch of salt on the NSH side.
This was a game I thought the Flames played poorly up until the latter half of the third. It's also one I thought Bertuzzi et al. looked terrible in and, lo and behold! They lost the possession battle again according to the corsi figures. Ironically, it was that line that won the game by scoring the tying and winning goals in the third. Good thing - otherwise, they're the goats.
All the other Flames forwards - aside from Boyd - did well for themselves amidst the match-up chaos, which is good since Trotz loves to try to get his big guys out against the "weaker sisters". Iginla was outscored, but he and Cammalleri basically got unlucky: they fired 7 shots on goal to their opponents 3.
On another note, the "d" match-ups were equally confusing from a Calgary perspective. To me, it looks like Keenan worried about getting Regehr out against Arnott and then, perhaps, let the face-off position (own zone, offensive zone) moderate d-movement from there.
January 4 5-2 loss against Chicago
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy/Lombardi - Iginla @ Havlat - Bolland - Ladd
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Byfuglien - Toews - Versteeg
Glencross - Conroy/Lombardi - Moss @ Eager - Brouwer - Sharp
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Fraser - Adams - Burish
A more straight forward evening, with Quenneville happy to run Havlat at Jarome and Toews at Langkow. This was a rare evening where the Flames were in the red in terms of corsi ratings, helped perhaps by the fact the Flames were on the second day of a B2B. That said, the only guys in the black were Glencross, Giordano, Conroy, Moss and Aucoin. Good thing Kane wasn't in the line-up.
Kind of interesting to look at Chicago's lines: notice the spread of noted offensive difference-makers (Toews, Havlat, Sharp) with a variety of less noted kids and such (Brouwer, Bolland, Versteeg, Eager). I guess the Hawks have a LOT of "kids and such", so they have to go somewhere. Still - I think there would be a very different configuration in the Windy City if Keenan were the coach.
What's also interesting is the fact that this is the 3rd straight game where guys I've lauded in this space recently (Langkow, Bourque) were underwater at ES in terms of possession (although they did outscore the bad guys). Hmm...
Jan 6 5-2 win over San Jose
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy - Iginla @ Cheechoo - Thornton - Michalek
Bourque - Langkow - Bertuzzi @ Clowe - Marleau - Steoguchi
Glencross - Lombardi - Moss @ Goc - Pavelski/Plihal - Grier
Nystrom - Boyd - Roy @ Staubitz - Plihal/Goc - Semenov
The match-ups below the top 6 weren't at all straight forward. Pavelski actually jumped around the Sharks line-up a tad, while guys like Boyd, Staubitz and Semenov were basically sheltered as much as possible by their respective coaches. Roy and Nystrom, meanwhile, actually saw more of Cheechoo and Marleau than they did the other 4th liners.
Here are the corsi numbers. This was the "statement" win for Calgary and they didn't do it with bounces. The Flames were in the black at ES in terms of possession, with only Iginla (-1) and Conroy (-1) being underwater. Langkow and company got things going the right way against Marleau's line, handily out-chancing and outscoring them. Good news.
Jan 8 5-2 win over NYI
Match-ups:
Cammalleri - Conroy - Iginla @ Park
Bourque - Langkow - Lombardi/Boyd @ Tambellini - Guerin - Bailey
Glencross - Lombardi/Backlund - Moss @ Comeau - Comrie - Okposo
Nystrom - Boyd/Backlund - Roy @ Hunter - Park - Bergenheim
This was a weird night as well. Iginla et al. spent almost an equal amount of time against everyone from the Isles, the leader of which was Richard Park at about 4 minutes (just 30% of Jarome's near 13 minutes of ice). Tambellini, Jackman, Smith, Comeau, Bergenheim and Guerin all saw Jarome for about 3 minutes or so. Just a strangely even mix of opposition for the captain which is why I didn't really list anyone beside the #1 line in the match-ups. There were also guys like Jon Sim that were irreverent (2 minutes of ice) or inserted randomly throughout the line-up (Smith...who played with Jackman, Sim, Hunter and Park to varying degrees). If you were to ask me beforehand, I would have thought Hunter would be the guy to see Jarome the most (he strikes me as the best option to face the big guns on New York), so I dont know if Keenan was working the match-ups feverishly or the Isles coach just...yeah, I don't know. Hell, there wasn't even a dedicated defensive pair matched against Iginla: Streit/Witt spent about 5 minutes against the big line - the most of any duo - with Martinek and Campoli just behind them at 4 minutes.
The Langkow/Guerin match-up seemed slightly more regular as did the Comrie/Glencross pairing. The latter line beat up on their counter-parts (featuring a bored Bill Guerin and a scared teenager), while Glencross and co were actually underwater. Overall, the Flames had a +14 corsi rating with only Glencross, Moss, Boyd and the Regehr pairing (who spent most of the night against the Comeau trio) in the red.
Anyways, here's the total shot data from the 5 game sample we're talking about.
- As you can see, Boyd ended up being the only negative out of the bunch somehow. Part of that has to do with who he plays with and part of that has to do with how he's used.
The link takes you to the face-off data from the same sample of games. As you can see, Boyd is the only guy on the team besides Iginla, Roy, Nystrom and Conroy not to have more offensive than defensive zone draws. However, it also suggests to me that Keenan might actually be employing Boyd properly by sheltering him on the 4th line. Chokes me to say that, because I like Boyd, but it looks like the puck doesn't move in the right direction when he's on the ice. Maybe that would change if he was on the Langkow line with Bourque getting a ton more O-zone draws (rather than starting in the neutral zone with Roy and Nystrom all the time)...or, maybe, he would drag the other guys down.
- I've been on Jarome's case lately, but, as you can see, he's taken the most own zone draws on the team the last little while and the shooting percentage with him on the ice has been just ghastly 4.3% (!). That just isn't going to last, I dont care who Iginla's center is.
- It's been a fun ride, but the Bourque train is going to come to a screeching halt here...sooner rather than later. He hasn't been as nearly as dominant as I had thought at driving possession at ES (+12), he got a lot of offensive zone face-off love over the span in question (-18) and the SH% with him on the ice was absurd (20%). I still like the guy, but..."conditions have been favorable".
- Is Lombo ever going to catch a break? The SV% behind him through these five games was a team worst .875.
Overall, it looks like Keenan is mostly giving Jarome the toughest sledding, while saving the cherry stuff for Langkow's line. Iginla's actually done alright with that assignment, especially given his relatively lackluster centermen (Lombardi/Conroy). I would expect his on ice SH% to jump up at least to mean levels pretty soon, which will mean he's in line for a significant bump in his results, especially if he continues to drive possession. A more capable center for Jarome would make sense, I think, and I wonder if Langkow won't eventually land on the top line if Keenan decides to keep going power v. power. I also think we're going to get a swing in contributions, with Iginla's trio (whoever it is) suddenly driving the bus while Langkow and Bourque cool off.
Feel free to share any of you own observations. Lots of stuff to go through here and I probably only touched the surface of it.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Flames expected goal differentials and Kipper
Thanks to a Jlikens post on the mind-bogglingly good fortune of the Boston Bruins so far, I've been working my way through Hockey Numbers recently (with a more Calgary-centric focus).
Some pretty interesting stuff. Most notably, the shot quality and expected goal differential work, which gives us an idea of how well a team is doing at generating and denying scoring chances.
The charts are big and scary, but terms are defined at the bottom. Basically what you're looking at here is a measure of the quality of shots for and against (shots from 12' go in far more often than shots from 30' for example) multiplied by gross shots for and against to yield an expected GD number.
The ES results for Calgary by this method are good. Very good. The Flames share the second best SQF (shot quality for) score in the league. Their SQA is just average, but they also tend to out shoot the bad guys, resulting in the second best EGD in the league (+14) behind the mighty San Jose Sharks. Keep in mind, this isn't actual ES GD (sometimes good quality shots don't go it and sometimes your goalie lets in a floater), but what this indicates is that only the Sharks significantly outchance the opposition more than the Flames so far*.
*(for interest sake, check out Detroit's numbers. They are third behind the Flames in terms of EGD, but they do it with pure out-shooting: they tend to give up high quality chances and generate low ones, but end up in the black because the shot differentials are so high).
Other items of interest:
- Calgary's ES SV% is a 25th ranked 88% - ahead of only Toronto, NYI, St.Louis, Dallas and Buffalo. How does Kipper have a SV% above .900 you ask then? Look no further than the 91.9% save rate on the PK. How ridiculous is that? Also, according to Java Geeks SV% numbers for shot quality, Kipper has struggled to stop average (89%) shots so far. MceLhinney's figure in this regard, for a point of reference, is 94%.
- Sticking with goaltending because it's a contentious point in Calgary these days, Kipper's contribution to GD this year has apparently been a negative one.
According to the linked graph, the Flames haven't exactly gotten the bounces either. The spike in expected GD seems to coincide with the Flames "turn around" after the Sharks debacle. That passes the sniff test, although I would like to see how the values for this output are generated.
- As I've wrestled with this Kipper @ 5.83M/year thing, I've started to get closer and closer to the conclusion that the Detroit model of spending money on skaters rather than goaltending makes the most sense. Low and behold, Java has a discussion on the very topic and he basically comes to the same conclusion:
It would appear good strategy would be to build a good team and then you can throw any goaltender in front without too much worry so long as the goaltender is at least average...
It would appear that Detroit is playing smart by spending very little on goaltending and spending on defense, Boston and Thomas are following similar logic. Of course this is all in the perspective on wins. What this says about the value of a goaltender is hard to say, due to the fact that a goaltender is worth more on a bad team and less on a good team. The best way to find out how good a goaltender appears to be: throw him on a bad team. Take Lalime, hugely successful in Ottawa (a team that doesn’t need a stellar goaltender), but failed miserably in St. Louis.
The study on which he based his discussion is a couple of years old now, but it looks more and more to me like the conclusions are sound. I've come around quite a bit on this topic since Kipper carried the team to almost-glory back in 03-04. I was a convert for a short time after that - a stone-cold "build the team from the net out" zealot I think. Time, experience and a growing body of data suggests otherwise to me now, however.
The re-structuring of my "goaltending effects" schema really began this summer when I looked at the value of drafting goaltenders and came to the conclusion that it was basically nil. I think the conclusion that "good skaters mostly the drive results" further enhances my thoughts on the issue and reveals why it's so damn hard to reliably find a great tender in the draft - the quality of your goalie is greatly determined by the quality of the surrounding team. Therefore, Gm's should concentrate on drafting and signing the best skaters they can find - then even an average tender can pile up the all-important wins (as we saw with Nabby last year and - yes - Kipper this year) and it won't cost an arm and a leg. Just make sure the guy can make it on time for practices and doesn't fight team mates while he's there...
PS - Im not trying to poke anyone in the eye with this post, as I know it will probably be unpopular to conclude that goaltending isn't all that important to success in general and that Kipper isn't all that good anymore in particular. I welcome discussion on the matter though since my own thoughts are still formative.
Some pretty interesting stuff. Most notably, the shot quality and expected goal differential work, which gives us an idea of how well a team is doing at generating and denying scoring chances.
The charts are big and scary, but terms are defined at the bottom. Basically what you're looking at here is a measure of the quality of shots for and against (shots from 12' go in far more often than shots from 30' for example) multiplied by gross shots for and against to yield an expected GD number.
The ES results for Calgary by this method are good. Very good. The Flames share the second best SQF (shot quality for) score in the league. Their SQA is just average, but they also tend to out shoot the bad guys, resulting in the second best EGD in the league (+14) behind the mighty San Jose Sharks. Keep in mind, this isn't actual ES GD (sometimes good quality shots don't go it and sometimes your goalie lets in a floater), but what this indicates is that only the Sharks significantly outchance the opposition more than the Flames so far*.
*(for interest sake, check out Detroit's numbers. They are third behind the Flames in terms of EGD, but they do it with pure out-shooting: they tend to give up high quality chances and generate low ones, but end up in the black because the shot differentials are so high).
Other items of interest:
- Calgary's ES SV% is a 25th ranked 88% - ahead of only Toronto, NYI, St.Louis, Dallas and Buffalo. How does Kipper have a SV% above .900 you ask then? Look no further than the 91.9% save rate on the PK. How ridiculous is that? Also, according to Java Geeks SV% numbers for shot quality, Kipper has struggled to stop average (89%) shots so far. MceLhinney's figure in this regard, for a point of reference, is 94%.
- Sticking with goaltending because it's a contentious point in Calgary these days, Kipper's contribution to GD this year has apparently been a negative one.
According to the linked graph, the Flames haven't exactly gotten the bounces either. The spike in expected GD seems to coincide with the Flames "turn around" after the Sharks debacle. That passes the sniff test, although I would like to see how the values for this output are generated.
- As I've wrestled with this Kipper @ 5.83M/year thing, I've started to get closer and closer to the conclusion that the Detroit model of spending money on skaters rather than goaltending makes the most sense. Low and behold, Java has a discussion on the very topic and he basically comes to the same conclusion:
It would appear good strategy would be to build a good team and then you can throw any goaltender in front without too much worry so long as the goaltender is at least average...
It would appear that Detroit is playing smart by spending very little on goaltending and spending on defense, Boston and Thomas are following similar logic. Of course this is all in the perspective on wins. What this says about the value of a goaltender is hard to say, due to the fact that a goaltender is worth more on a bad team and less on a good team. The best way to find out how good a goaltender appears to be: throw him on a bad team. Take Lalime, hugely successful in Ottawa (a team that doesn’t need a stellar goaltender), but failed miserably in St. Louis.
The study on which he based his discussion is a couple of years old now, but it looks more and more to me like the conclusions are sound. I've come around quite a bit on this topic since Kipper carried the team to almost-glory back in 03-04. I was a convert for a short time after that - a stone-cold "build the team from the net out" zealot I think. Time, experience and a growing body of data suggests otherwise to me now, however.
The re-structuring of my "goaltending effects" schema really began this summer when I looked at the value of drafting goaltenders and came to the conclusion that it was basically nil. I think the conclusion that "good skaters mostly the drive results" further enhances my thoughts on the issue and reveals why it's so damn hard to reliably find a great tender in the draft - the quality of your goalie is greatly determined by the quality of the surrounding team. Therefore, Gm's should concentrate on drafting and signing the best skaters they can find - then even an average tender can pile up the all-important wins (as we saw with Nabby last year and - yes - Kipper this year) and it won't cost an arm and a leg. Just make sure the guy can make it on time for practices and doesn't fight team mates while he's there...
PS - Im not trying to poke anyone in the eye with this post, as I know it will probably be unpopular to conclude that goaltending isn't all that important to success in general and that Kipper isn't all that good anymore in particular. I welcome discussion on the matter though since my own thoughts are still formative.
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Friday, January 09, 2009
All-star editing
I never take much notice of the all-star game, and will be even more apathetic this year in light of the virtual box stuffing fiasco that's occurred (Komisarek as a starter? Really?). With that in mind, it's been fashionable to criticize candidates and suggest omissions. George Johnson (oddly) claimed Kipper should be an all-star this year the other day, so here's the Flame I think should be going:
Rene Bourque.
Don't agree? check out his numbers. 3.31 ESP/60 (only Flames player above 3). +17 at ES. Plays some of the toughest competition on the team according to behind the net. Most ES goals in the league by a player that hasn't scored on the PP. Consider this: Bourque is on pace to score 30 this year - all at even-strength.
I was optimistic about Rene going into the season, but the guy has exploded beyond all reasonable expectations and is operating at an elite level. Even if he falls back a bit, he'll likely prove to be one of the biggest steals of the summer.
Rene Bourque.
Don't agree? check out his numbers. 3.31 ESP/60 (only Flames player above 3). +17 at ES. Plays some of the toughest competition on the team according to behind the net. Most ES goals in the league by a player that hasn't scored on the PP. Consider this: Bourque is on pace to score 30 this year - all at even-strength.
I was optimistic about Rene going into the season, but the guy has exploded beyond all reasonable expectations and is operating at an elite level. Even if he falls back a bit, he'll likely prove to be one of the biggest steals of the summer.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Gameday - Flames vs NYI (Updated)
From the best to the worst. After a stunning victory over the San Jose Sharks, Calgary will be swimming with minnows this evening. I have some thoughts after the last game (and before this one) which I'll present in no specific order.
- Every single line looked effective on Tuesday night. Except Jarome's. That's both the good and bad news when it comes to the Flames forward depth currently. Langkow is on fire and even Bertuzzi has become "not a liability" out there. Hell, I saw the big guy lay down to block a shot against the Sharks, possibly the first time he's ever bothered to do so in his entire career. Bert's decision-making is no longer eye-gougingly bad and it looks like the bounces are going his way a little to boot. Playing with Langkow and the ES beast Rene Bourque hasn't hurt either. If Bertuzzi continues in this vein, he'll be far from the lead anchor he appeared to be in the first 25 games or so.
On the other hand, the trio of Cammalleri, Jarome and (be it Boyd, Conroy or Lombardi) are sucking balls right now. Big, hairy balls. And with everyone else clicking on all cylinders, I can't see any changes being made to get the Captain going. Likely result? A redundant center (*cough* Lombardi) gets moved for another top 6 forward eventually. With Keenan shuffling pivots through the first line on a shift by shift basis, you can almost picture him looking up at the owners box, shaking his head and mouthing the words "this isn't working". Personally, I'd give Boyd a longer look on the first line, but that's just my irrational man-crush talking. Speaking objectively, an established top 6 forward (LW or C) would be the ideal solution.
- Matt beat me to it, but I wanted to note how great it is to have an honest-to-god fourth line this year. Boyd, Nystrom and Primeau have all moved forward, partially because they don't have the likes of Eric Godard holding them back. Roy is a goon, but he's at least a functional player at the NHL level. Now Keenan can actually play the 4th unit without it being panic time for 4 minutes a game.
- Mark Giordano had quite the game versus the Sharks and he looks to be settling his overall play down a little to me. Less chaos, more stability, especially at ES. Course, it helps that Keenan carefully manages his ice time. What's notable, though, is the fact that Gio leads all Calgary blueliners in terms of ESP/60 (something he did in limited time as a rookie). Dude has the skills to promote offense from the back-end.
- Having been fooled by noteworthy runs before, Im trying to temper my excitement about the Flames going into the second half. Last year, the team turned into a world beater in December, reeling off a Franchise record six straight road wins and propelling Huselius to the top every Flames fans "favorites" list (albeit for a very short time). It looked like they had figured things out and were cruising. No so. Nolan, Lombardi and Huselius went ice-cold in the latter part of the year, Tanguay continued to sulk and Calgary backed into the post-season as underdogs.
Two years ago, I started to think we "had something" when Jarome Iginla went down with an injury at the start of January and the team beat the crap out of all comers during the following month anyways. Alas, Iginla returned in February, but the team choked egregiously under Jim Playfair down the stretch anyways and were cannon fodder before the guns of Detroit in the first round.
Calgary's underlying stats look really solid thus far, so it's possible we're not looking at a mere streak here. There's no unsustainable percentages driving their success, no single, injure-able Hercules for other teams to target. The Flames routinely out-shoot the bad guys and they don't even have the benefit of big salaries producing big returns right now. Im tempted to say all the arrows are pointing in the right direction, but I've been burned before...
- The Islanders are probably the worst team in the league at the half-way point. Their points leader (Doug Weight - !!) is injured and they've lost something like a bazillion games in a row on the road. They get out-shot all the time and their GD is -42. Nobody on the Islanders has a positive corsi rating. Only Trent Hunter has managed more than 2 points per 60 minutes of ice at ES.
The only semi-respectable thing about NYI is their special teams (PP - 16th, PK - 12th) only because they aren't terrible. So while nothing is assured and the hockey gods can be cruel...this is a team the Flames should be handling easily. I'd be nervous about that, but Calgary has actually been pretty consistent when it comes to beating up on the weaker sisters this year. In addition, Jarome has tended to put up 4+ points a night against the dregs so far, so perhaps we can expect a big game from him.
Prediction - Flames 6, Islander 2. Iginla (2), Cammalleri, Lombardi, Phaneuf and Bourque for Calgary. Comrie and Potvin for NYI.
UPDATE! - There's rumors swirling that Todd Bertuzzi is questionable due to back concerns and that the Flames may insert - get this - Mikael Backlund into the line-up this evening to replace him. '
Far-fetched? Yes. Backlund struggled in the pre-season and in a 2nd tier men's league in Sweden. On the other hand, Sutter obviously loves him, the kid has been in town since the end of the WJC and...he's currently listed on the Flames roster.
Edit - Inside the Flames makes it official. I bet anyone $100 he starts between Jarome and Cammalleri (with Boyd on the 4th line with Roy and Nystrom). It's going to be very interesting to see how the kid does. I don't have high hopes, but...
- Every single line looked effective on Tuesday night. Except Jarome's. That's both the good and bad news when it comes to the Flames forward depth currently. Langkow is on fire and even Bertuzzi has become "not a liability" out there. Hell, I saw the big guy lay down to block a shot against the Sharks, possibly the first time he's ever bothered to do so in his entire career. Bert's decision-making is no longer eye-gougingly bad and it looks like the bounces are going his way a little to boot. Playing with Langkow and the ES beast Rene Bourque hasn't hurt either. If Bertuzzi continues in this vein, he'll be far from the lead anchor he appeared to be in the first 25 games or so.
On the other hand, the trio of Cammalleri, Jarome and (be it Boyd, Conroy or Lombardi) are sucking balls right now. Big, hairy balls. And with everyone else clicking on all cylinders, I can't see any changes being made to get the Captain going. Likely result? A redundant center (*cough* Lombardi) gets moved for another top 6 forward eventually. With Keenan shuffling pivots through the first line on a shift by shift basis, you can almost picture him looking up at the owners box, shaking his head and mouthing the words "this isn't working". Personally, I'd give Boyd a longer look on the first line, but that's just my irrational man-crush talking. Speaking objectively, an established top 6 forward (LW or C) would be the ideal solution.
- Matt beat me to it, but I wanted to note how great it is to have an honest-to-god fourth line this year. Boyd, Nystrom and Primeau have all moved forward, partially because they don't have the likes of Eric Godard holding them back. Roy is a goon, but he's at least a functional player at the NHL level. Now Keenan can actually play the 4th unit without it being panic time for 4 minutes a game.
- Mark Giordano had quite the game versus the Sharks and he looks to be settling his overall play down a little to me. Less chaos, more stability, especially at ES. Course, it helps that Keenan carefully manages his ice time. What's notable, though, is the fact that Gio leads all Calgary blueliners in terms of ESP/60 (something he did in limited time as a rookie). Dude has the skills to promote offense from the back-end.
- Having been fooled by noteworthy runs before, Im trying to temper my excitement about the Flames going into the second half. Last year, the team turned into a world beater in December, reeling off a Franchise record six straight road wins and propelling Huselius to the top every Flames fans "favorites" list (albeit for a very short time). It looked like they had figured things out and were cruising. No so. Nolan, Lombardi and Huselius went ice-cold in the latter part of the year, Tanguay continued to sulk and Calgary backed into the post-season as underdogs.
Two years ago, I started to think we "had something" when Jarome Iginla went down with an injury at the start of January and the team beat the crap out of all comers during the following month anyways. Alas, Iginla returned in February, but the team choked egregiously under Jim Playfair down the stretch anyways and were cannon fodder before the guns of Detroit in the first round.
Calgary's underlying stats look really solid thus far, so it's possible we're not looking at a mere streak here. There's no unsustainable percentages driving their success, no single, injure-able Hercules for other teams to target. The Flames routinely out-shoot the bad guys and they don't even have the benefit of big salaries producing big returns right now. Im tempted to say all the arrows are pointing in the right direction, but I've been burned before...
- The Islanders are probably the worst team in the league at the half-way point. Their points leader (Doug Weight - !!) is injured and they've lost something like a bazillion games in a row on the road. They get out-shot all the time and their GD is -42. Nobody on the Islanders has a positive corsi rating. Only Trent Hunter has managed more than 2 points per 60 minutes of ice at ES.
The only semi-respectable thing about NYI is their special teams (PP - 16th, PK - 12th) only because they aren't terrible. So while nothing is assured and the hockey gods can be cruel...this is a team the Flames should be handling easily. I'd be nervous about that, but Calgary has actually been pretty consistent when it comes to beating up on the weaker sisters this year. In addition, Jarome has tended to put up 4+ points a night against the dregs so far, so perhaps we can expect a big game from him.
Prediction - Flames 6, Islander 2. Iginla (2), Cammalleri, Lombardi, Phaneuf and Bourque for Calgary. Comrie and Potvin for NYI.
UPDATE! - There's rumors swirling that Todd Bertuzzi is questionable due to back concerns and that the Flames may insert - get this - Mikael Backlund into the line-up this evening to replace him. '
Far-fetched? Yes. Backlund struggled in the pre-season and in a 2nd tier men's league in Sweden. On the other hand, Sutter obviously loves him, the kid has been in town since the end of the WJC and...he's currently listed on the Flames roster.
Edit - Inside the Flames makes it official. I bet anyone $100 he starts between Jarome and Cammalleri (with Boyd on the 4th line with Roy and Nystrom). It's going to be very interesting to see how the kid does. I don't have high hopes, but...
Kipper Save Percentage
This proved to be popular last year, so here it is again - Kipper's SV% in scatter-plot form:
click to enlarge
By my eye, there is no real upwards trend here, unlike last year. Rather, the trend is towards less volatility: prior to game 20, Kipper went from terrible to excellent and then back to terrible again. Things seem to have plateaued since, however, with his SV% hovering just above that .900 mark. If you're wondering, the 6-1 loss to SJS that seems to have sparked the team's turn-around was game #17...
So what are we seeing here? Given that the Flames made a marked effort to change strategy and focus after the Sharks shellacking, is the reduction in SV% variability entirely a reflection of the club's adjustment (that's my initial interpretation, but Im open to suggestions)? If so, what does that say about Kiprsuoff and team effects on goaltending as a whole?
Of course, raw SV% is only a small part of the picture. What I haven't included here is shot totals, shot quality and strength of opposition. Still, what the chart suggests to me is we're hovering right around Kipper's ceiling since the turn-around (his SV% has been a respectable .910 from game 21 on). The good news is that that isn't a terrible number. The bad news is it isn't a particularly great number either - a .910 SV% is good for about 20th in the league currently. Peers in that range include: Rinne, Johnson, Sanford, Giguere and Halak. Interestingly, Curtis McElhinney's SV% through his meager 4 games, 100 shots and zero wins has been - that's right - .910...
Tiny, miniscule sample size I know, but a suggestive coincidence nonetheless.
click to enlargeBy my eye, there is no real upwards trend here, unlike last year. Rather, the trend is towards less volatility: prior to game 20, Kipper went from terrible to excellent and then back to terrible again. Things seem to have plateaued since, however, with his SV% hovering just above that .900 mark. If you're wondering, the 6-1 loss to SJS that seems to have sparked the team's turn-around was game #17...
So what are we seeing here? Given that the Flames made a marked effort to change strategy and focus after the Sharks shellacking, is the reduction in SV% variability entirely a reflection of the club's adjustment (that's my initial interpretation, but Im open to suggestions)? If so, what does that say about Kiprsuoff and team effects on goaltending as a whole?
Of course, raw SV% is only a small part of the picture. What I haven't included here is shot totals, shot quality and strength of opposition. Still, what the chart suggests to me is we're hovering right around Kipper's ceiling since the turn-around (his SV% has been a respectable .910 from game 21 on). The good news is that that isn't a terrible number. The bad news is it isn't a particularly great number either - a .910 SV% is good for about 20th in the league currently. Peers in that range include: Rinne, Johnson, Sanford, Giguere and Halak. Interestingly, Curtis McElhinney's SV% through his meager 4 games, 100 shots and zero wins has been - that's right - .910...
Tiny, miniscule sample size I know, but a suggestive coincidence nonetheless.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Half way home
Since most teams are nearing the half way point of the season, I decided to put together a little standings spreadsheet that included some of the underlying numbers for each club. Specifically: Win %, GD (goal differential), SD (shot differential), and PDO (SV%+SH%). The latter number is discussed here and elsewhere at length. The Coles notes version is: anyone significantly above 1.00 is due for a fall and anyone well below is due for an improvement. It's a "regression to the mean" kind of thing.
Notes:
- Boston is doing it via percentages and not outshooting. They have to hit a wall eventually, don't they? Im guessing their 2nd half won't be nearly as impressive as their first.
- Ottawa has been bad AND unlucky.
- Toronto is in line for an improvement.
- I doubt Edmonton will make the play-offs. Again.
Feel free to add your own thoughts, insights etc.
Notes:
- Boston is doing it via percentages and not outshooting. They have to hit a wall eventually, don't they? Im guessing their 2nd half won't be nearly as impressive as their first.
- Ottawa has been bad AND unlucky.
- Toronto is in line for an improvement.
- I doubt Edmonton will make the play-offs. Again.
Feel free to add your own thoughts, insights etc.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Gameday - Sharks in town
There's a lot of talk recently about the Flames needing to beat elite teams "if they want to be elite themselves". As of right now, Calgary has played the best in the WC six times (Detroit, Chicago and San Jose) and won precisely zero games. I haven't checked the cumulative goal differential of those six matches, but Im guessing it would be well under water from a Flames perspective.
Calgary obviously falls into a second tier of clubs in the league right now: good enough to beat up on mediocre opponents and compile a decent record, but not a legitimate candidate to challenge the true contenders. Of course, that's why there are only a few elite teams in the league; making the leap from "good" to "great" is very difficult.
Ironically, Calgary's issues are the inverse of the problems that held the team back last season. Previously, the Flames were plagued by a lack of quality forwards beyond the top 6 - everyone below the second line were in the red in terms of goal differential. Jarome was tossing aside all comers, but Yelle et al were being chewed up themselves: the elites were elite, but the foot soldiers were cannon fodder.
This season, the supporting cast is actually carrying the day. Bourque, Moss, Glencross and to a lesser extent Boyd, Nystrom and Lombardi have taken a step forward and strengthened the overall depth of the club. The true problem thus far, though, and the reason the Flames have a nominal GD and are mired a step below the best in the league, is the near $20M in under-performing cap dollars the club has invested in Iginla, Phaneuf and Kiprusoff.
If you take a look at the best teams in the NHL right now, you'll notice they all have elite players (or players performing at an elite level). Detroit has Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Hossa; San Jose has Thornton, Marleau and Boyle; Boston has Savard, Krejci (!) and Kessel etc. All of these guys are not only just producing at high rates (at ES and the PP) but also significantly outscoring the bad guys at 5on5.
The Flames only have one guy close to that level currently: Rene Bourque. The rest of the top 6 (Langkow, Bertuzzi, Iginla, Cammalleri) either don't score that much (Bert, Langkow) or get scored on a lot (Iginla, Cammalleri).
Add in the struggles of Dion Phaneuf, who is getting scored on more and scoring less than perhaps ever before as a Flame (whatever deficiencies have been present in Dion's game in the past, he's usually been able to outscore them to some degree and end up in the black at ES) and a 5.83M goalie performing at or below the leagues mean range in just about every goaltending category except for "wins" and the Flames have a lot of under-producing dollars at the top of the roster.
Hard to diagnose the causes of the big boys struggles, because I don't think there's a single culprit. Dion seems to be buckling under a diverse litany of pressures (Norris nomination, huge amount of ice time, hefty new contract) plus the bounces haven't been kind to him. On the other hand, I think Jarome is somewhat hampered by his lesser linemates so far (although Im not sure that's the whole story), which is something I saw coming this summer when I predicted the Flames would take a step back at ES due to the expulsion of Juice and Tanguay (and addition of Cammalleri and Bertuzzi). I didn't think the effect would be this pronounced, however, and it doesn't really explain his step back on the PP...so take that for what it's worth.
As for Kipper, I think that he peaked a couple of years ago and is just...mediocre now. He's good enough to win games on a capable club, but isn't going to carry anyone to victory and certainly isn't going to be challenging for any Vezinas or Conn Smythes. I'd love to be wrong on this count, but there's a large (and growing) body of evidence that Kipper is probably overpaid by about 3M or so at this point.
I don't know if whatever is suppressing the big guns fire is intractable or merely temporary; if Jarome and/or Phaneuf can improve over their first half performances, the Flames have a chance to win the division and make some noise in the post season this year. If not, and they continue to under-deliver relative to their dollars (and ice time) then Im guessing the Flames will continue to get beat about the face and neck by the San Jose's of the World.
Prediction - 4-2 Sharks. Marleau, Cheechoo, Michalek and Boyle for San Jose. Lombardi and Langkow for Calgary
Calgary obviously falls into a second tier of clubs in the league right now: good enough to beat up on mediocre opponents and compile a decent record, but not a legitimate candidate to challenge the true contenders. Of course, that's why there are only a few elite teams in the league; making the leap from "good" to "great" is very difficult.
Ironically, Calgary's issues are the inverse of the problems that held the team back last season. Previously, the Flames were plagued by a lack of quality forwards beyond the top 6 - everyone below the second line were in the red in terms of goal differential. Jarome was tossing aside all comers, but Yelle et al were being chewed up themselves: the elites were elite, but the foot soldiers were cannon fodder.
This season, the supporting cast is actually carrying the day. Bourque, Moss, Glencross and to a lesser extent Boyd, Nystrom and Lombardi have taken a step forward and strengthened the overall depth of the club. The true problem thus far, though, and the reason the Flames have a nominal GD and are mired a step below the best in the league, is the near $20M in under-performing cap dollars the club has invested in Iginla, Phaneuf and Kiprusoff.
If you take a look at the best teams in the NHL right now, you'll notice they all have elite players (or players performing at an elite level). Detroit has Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Hossa; San Jose has Thornton, Marleau and Boyle; Boston has Savard, Krejci (!) and Kessel etc. All of these guys are not only just producing at high rates (at ES and the PP) but also significantly outscoring the bad guys at 5on5.
The Flames only have one guy close to that level currently: Rene Bourque. The rest of the top 6 (Langkow, Bertuzzi, Iginla, Cammalleri) either don't score that much (Bert, Langkow) or get scored on a lot (Iginla, Cammalleri).
Add in the struggles of Dion Phaneuf, who is getting scored on more and scoring less than perhaps ever before as a Flame (whatever deficiencies have been present in Dion's game in the past, he's usually been able to outscore them to some degree and end up in the black at ES) and a 5.83M goalie performing at or below the leagues mean range in just about every goaltending category except for "wins" and the Flames have a lot of under-producing dollars at the top of the roster.
Hard to diagnose the causes of the big boys struggles, because I don't think there's a single culprit. Dion seems to be buckling under a diverse litany of pressures (Norris nomination, huge amount of ice time, hefty new contract) plus the bounces haven't been kind to him. On the other hand, I think Jarome is somewhat hampered by his lesser linemates so far (although Im not sure that's the whole story), which is something I saw coming this summer when I predicted the Flames would take a step back at ES due to the expulsion of Juice and Tanguay (and addition of Cammalleri and Bertuzzi). I didn't think the effect would be this pronounced, however, and it doesn't really explain his step back on the PP...so take that for what it's worth.
As for Kipper, I think that he peaked a couple of years ago and is just...mediocre now. He's good enough to win games on a capable club, but isn't going to carry anyone to victory and certainly isn't going to be challenging for any Vezinas or Conn Smythes. I'd love to be wrong on this count, but there's a large (and growing) body of evidence that Kipper is probably overpaid by about 3M or so at this point.
I don't know if whatever is suppressing the big guns fire is intractable or merely temporary; if Jarome and/or Phaneuf can improve over their first half performances, the Flames have a chance to win the division and make some noise in the post season this year. If not, and they continue to under-deliver relative to their dollars (and ice time) then Im guessing the Flames will continue to get beat about the face and neck by the San Jose's of the World.
Prediction - 4-2 Sharks. Marleau, Cheechoo, Michalek and Boyle for San Jose. Lombardi and Langkow for Calgary
Monday, January 05, 2009
World Juniors and Mikael Backlund
Canada and Sweden go at it tonight for the World Junior Championship. The game will feature two Flames draft picks in Keith Aulie (whom I haven't really noticed) and the contentious Mikael Backlund (who leads his team in scoring).
Prior to the tournament, there were rumblings that Backlund was in trouble of losing his place on Vasteras altogether due to inconsistent play. It was strongly hinted that he would have to play well in the World Juniors in order to be welcomed back to his native team.
Well, the kid has played well. He leads his Swedish Juniors in goals with 5, including two beauty markers during the semi-final game. By many accounts he's been one of the best players on the team. His performance to date makes one wonder just how he was being employed back in Sweden...
A new wrinkle has appeared in the Backlund controversy recently as well. Bob Mckenzie appaeared on Hf boards and posted this:
Backlund will be joining Kelowna after the WJC. It's my understanding it's been agreed to and will happen, although my experience with international transfers is that it's not truly done until you see the player in the lineup...that said, Backlund is expected to finish this season the Dub.
Firstly, I've heard that that is indeed Mckenzie and not someone posing as him, so the tip should be legit. Secondly, it'll be interesting to see what Backlund does in the WHL if/when he makes the move. I dont know the relative development value of the Swedish league vs. the CHL, but it's doubtful his progression could go any worse than it has for Vasteras this year.
Prior to the tournament, there were rumblings that Backlund was in trouble of losing his place on Vasteras altogether due to inconsistent play. It was strongly hinted that he would have to play well in the World Juniors in order to be welcomed back to his native team.
Well, the kid has played well. He leads his Swedish Juniors in goals with 5, including two beauty markers during the semi-final game. By many accounts he's been one of the best players on the team. His performance to date makes one wonder just how he was being employed back in Sweden...
A new wrinkle has appeared in the Backlund controversy recently as well. Bob Mckenzie appaeared on Hf boards and posted this:
Backlund will be joining Kelowna after the WJC. It's my understanding it's been agreed to and will happen, although my experience with international transfers is that it's not truly done until you see the player in the lineup...that said, Backlund is expected to finish this season the Dub.
Firstly, I've heard that that is indeed Mckenzie and not someone posing as him, so the tip should be legit. Secondly, it'll be interesting to see what Backlund does in the WHL if/when he makes the move. I dont know the relative development value of the Swedish league vs. the CHL, but it's doubtful his progression could go any worse than it has for Vasteras this year.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Gameday - Flames at Hawks
It's funny that with 30 teams and seven months the schedule maker (be it man or machine) just can't seem to get away from those dastardly back-to-back games. Today marks the second time the Flames have flown into Chicago on the back end of a B2B, which is especially cruel considering the Hawks might be the best home team in the league right now.
I don't now what the percentages are, but Im guessing playing a tired opponent at home represents a significant advantage in the NHL. Im sure everything balances out in the end to a certain degree, but you would think the league would try to avoid conferring such an advantage on one team over another as much as possible. Oh well.
As such, I think the party ends today. The Flames were pretty fortunate to escape with a regulation win in Nashville on Saturday by my estimation, and today they'll be playing a vastly superior opponent through tougher circumstances. That and the Hawks seem to have the Flames number whatever the situation...
I was glad for the 5th straight win yesterday, but was dismayed to see Jarome go back into hibernation. The apparently faulty assumption that Iginla is going to "wake up" and put together a string of dominant performances needs to be put to bed I think. Like the recent game against Minnesota (and totally unlike the contest against the Oil), Jarome was outscored by a nominal checking line and basically a non-entity otherwise. He didn't even manage a shot on goal, despite some 5+ minutes on the PP. Conroy and Lombardi were shuffled through the first line with Cammalleri and Jarome, but it didn't make a lick of difference. I believe Langkow could do a world of good on the first line, but he's stuck taking care of Bert on the 2nd scoring unit. We should therefore prepare ourselves for a season marked by feasts and famines out of the captain, at least if the pattern from the first 35+ games holds.
Prediction - Hawks 5, Flames 2. Conroy and Giordano for Calgary. Kane (2), Toews, Campbell and Brouwer for Chicago.
I don't now what the percentages are, but Im guessing playing a tired opponent at home represents a significant advantage in the NHL. Im sure everything balances out in the end to a certain degree, but you would think the league would try to avoid conferring such an advantage on one team over another as much as possible. Oh well.
As such, I think the party ends today. The Flames were pretty fortunate to escape with a regulation win in Nashville on Saturday by my estimation, and today they'll be playing a vastly superior opponent through tougher circumstances. That and the Hawks seem to have the Flames number whatever the situation...
I was glad for the 5th straight win yesterday, but was dismayed to see Jarome go back into hibernation. The apparently faulty assumption that Iginla is going to "wake up" and put together a string of dominant performances needs to be put to bed I think. Like the recent game against Minnesota (and totally unlike the contest against the Oil), Jarome was outscored by a nominal checking line and basically a non-entity otherwise. He didn't even manage a shot on goal, despite some 5+ minutes on the PP. Conroy and Lombardi were shuffled through the first line with Cammalleri and Jarome, but it didn't make a lick of difference. I believe Langkow could do a world of good on the first line, but he's stuck taking care of Bert on the 2nd scoring unit. We should therefore prepare ourselves for a season marked by feasts and famines out of the captain, at least if the pattern from the first 35+ games holds.
Prediction - Hawks 5, Flames 2. Conroy and Giordano for Calgary. Kane (2), Toews, Campbell and Brouwer for Chicago.
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Gameday - Flames in Nashville
The last time the two teams clashed turned out to be probably one of the strangest games in recent memory. The Flames took a giant lead in the first half only to see Nashville whittle things down to a one goal deficit before the buzzer.
Calgary had a nice little run at home during the holidays. Both capable play and a very friendly schedule helped put the team on top of the NW division heap - a place they'll hope to stay if their goal is any kind of post season success.
This afternoon's contest is another fairly winnable game. Now that Shea Weber has cooled after his (projected) 40 goal, 80 point start, the Preds have been having trouble scoring. They've managed just 91 GF so far (lowest in the conference) and have a lousy GD to boot (-18). Both teams have mediocre starters now that Ellis has come back down to earth after being a league leader in SV% last season, but the Flames unarguably have the more potent offense; especially If Jarome's awakening last game wasn't merely a prelude to another nap.
Prediction - Calgary 4, Nashville 1. Iginla, Lombardi, Phaneuf (I hope!) and Moss for the Flames. Suter for the Preds.
PS - Swing by WI's place if you're down for some hot liveblog action.
Calgary had a nice little run at home during the holidays. Both capable play and a very friendly schedule helped put the team on top of the NW division heap - a place they'll hope to stay if their goal is any kind of post season success.
This afternoon's contest is another fairly winnable game. Now that Shea Weber has cooled after his (projected) 40 goal, 80 point start, the Preds have been having trouble scoring. They've managed just 91 GF so far (lowest in the conference) and have a lousy GD to boot (-18). Both teams have mediocre starters now that Ellis has come back down to earth after being a league leader in SV% last season, but the Flames unarguably have the more potent offense; especially If Jarome's awakening last game wasn't merely a prelude to another nap.
Prediction - Calgary 4, Nashville 1. Iginla, Lombardi, Phaneuf (I hope!) and Moss for the Flames. Suter for the Preds.
PS - Swing by WI's place if you're down for some hot liveblog action.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Buffaloes Win 2008 Mac's Midget AAA Tournament!
This year I am fortunate enough to work with the Calgary Buffaloes Hockey Association and am proud to announce that the Midget AAA Buffaloes have won the 31st Annual Mac's Midget AAA tournament this year! Congratulations Buffaloes!
More on the tournament courtesy of the Calgary Sun here.
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